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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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crepeface posted:being "aware" of other ships doesn't necessitate that they have full awareness of all aspects of the ship so it is actually impossible to discern if a random civilian sailboat being in an area slated for military exercises is carrying 100kgs of dynamite or not. It is more the type of mission they were doing needed specialized equipment for explosives that large and heavy and it most likely was going to require a more specialized vessel which was going to be noticeable. Also, I think even NATO would keep track of a random ship going straight through their exercise area, especially hovering right around several important pipeline. If anything NATO would be more vigilant than usual because the Russians are right there. The actual nationality of the divers and their funding is less important than this was something that NATO was aware of, and therefore gave permission to even if it didn’t involve a NATO vessel.
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Aug 26, 2023 03:45
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HERSH!!!
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Aug 26, 2023 03:45
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VoicesCanBe posted:Yep I definitely believe it was just Ukraine who bombed the pipelines, with no assistance whatsoever. Certainly not from any country across the Atlantic Ocean every poster who insisted it was impossible for ukraine to do because they didn't have the proper equipment will now insist it could be nobody but Ukraine alone lol, more likely they'll just say its russian disinfo and block it out
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Aug 26, 2023 03:45
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I think people are getting the respective theories mixed up. Seymour Hersh says that the US planted timed explosives in June 2022 (during BALTOPS), which blew up in September 2022. The German investigators say that the Ukranians were supposedly planning on doing something during BALTOPS (this information was not passed on by NATO intelligence to the actual German Navy/pipeline agency), but ultimately ended up planting explosives sometime after September 6th.
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Aug 26, 2023 03:48
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Homeless Friend posted:every poster who insisted it was impossible for ukraine to do because they didn't have the proper equipment will now insist it could be nobody but Ukraine alone lol, more likely they'll just say its russian disinfo and block it out If that's what it takes for Europe to get on an exit ramp, I have no problem with it. Plus it allows Germany a small chance to repair the pipeline. If it was blown up by Biden's Ninja Team 6, then there is zero chance.
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Aug 26, 2023 03:51
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OhFunny posted:The front page of Der Spiegel's English edition. Germany needs to invoke article 5 to attack the true co-ordinator of this assault: Britain.
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Aug 26, 2023 03:55
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The perfidious British have threatened Europe for long enough, I call on Gunther to call for the immediate dismantling of Great Britain
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Aug 26, 2023 03:56
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DancingShade posted:Germany needs to invoke article 5 to attack the true co-ordinator of this assault: Britain. I mean, they had a bunch of ships around BALTROPS. Also, they have a shot of the sailboat, it seems like a generic small pleasurecraft. The story says a “specialized submarine” wasn’t necessary but they don’t explain how you coordinate operations from a small sailboat. Any news about how the aid bill is doing in Congress. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 04:14 on Aug 26, 2023 |
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Aug 26, 2023 04:02
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quote:The investigators are lucky. Mola didn't clean the boat before storing it for the winter, and the saboteurs were the last people to charter the vessel. A plastic bottle "with apparently Polish labeling" is found next to the sink. Beneath the map table is a single "barefoot shoe." quote:One of the men paid for the fuel in cash, pulling a striking number of large-denomination euro bills out of his pocket to do so – but he didn't leave a tip. quote:With the help of a meter, investigators have determined that the crew didn't sail the ship and used the motor instead. quote:"the crew of the yacht was checked by Polish border control officials" because they had raised suspicions. Perhaps because of the falsified documents used by the crew? Whatever triggered their concerns, the border control officials made a note of the personal information they had presented Border Control: Business or pleasure? Commando: A little bit of both. quote:Indeed, Washington thought Nord Stream 2 was so dangerous that it warned Germany that its completion would significantly harm U.S.-German relations. quote:Investigators, though, think that a total of less than 100 kilograms of explosives quote:The lead takes us to a large city in central Ukraine, to an abominable Soviet-era prefab residential building on the outskirts of Dnipro. The structure has eight, not entirely rosy-smelling entrances, a bar and a minimarket called Stella on the ground floor. quote:But the perception among investigators is that the will to solve the case is not particularly pronounced in the capital. Politically, it is easier to live with what happened if it remains unclear who is behind the attacks. The process is not being hindered, but neither is there much support from the overarching government ministries. Meanwhile, it is clear to career-oriented ministry officials that there is no glory to be had with this case.
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Aug 26, 2023 04:32
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AnimeIsTrash posted:you dont think nato ships are aware of other ships in the area? I think it’s funny to imagine that NATO is so would even bother to send warships out to investigate every single sailboat, even if that were possible (it’s not really, there are so many little boats all over the place). It’s a funny thing to imagine, but there are so many loving boats out on the water. And sometimes sailboats and other boats just do not to broadcast their own position. This can be “sneaky” or it can just be any recreational boat that literally cannot broadcast its own position and is not required to have AIS. Not every podunk fishing or recreational boat is rolling with radar and AIS.
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Aug 26, 2023 04:44
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Realistically, little recreational boats, small yachts, sailboats, etc probably pass over gas lines, internet lines, power cables, etc thousands of times per day worldwide innocuously and with little real tracking. If this was some 300+ ton diving support vessel camped out for a week with its AIS turned off, sure, that would be more noteworthy.
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Aug 26, 2023 04:52
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tatankatonk posted:not even saying that I don't think the US had a part in it but lol that the reaction to confirmation of ukraine attacking germany and the german government conspiring to cover it up is "ok but its not the specific events and timeline that I believe in. what are they hiding" because if (just) Ukraine did it Germany wouldn’t cover it up. The cover up is for the courtesy of the red, white and blue, which means US involvement. You can hem, haw and hedge about it mlmpishly, but that’s bottom line. What the gently caress is the Ukraine? Outside of Canada’s Deputy PM, none of the leadership actually cares about it, so them slipping the chain and causing damage - at the level of national strategy - to Germany, without American protection, sponsorship, facilitation, would not provoke a coverup but a response. An unimportant, unallied, country caused God knows how much damage to the nation? For the leadership of any country, particularly one overwhelmingly more powerful than Ukraine like Germany, nobody’s going to slava for those motherfuckers and they’re not getting free tanks. The story as-written is that Ukraine declared war on Germany and Germany… sat on their hands… why? Nothing Russia has done to Germany, or threatened to do to Germany, has been anywhere near that damaging. We’re talking about having to reshape national energy policy and industry, the foundation of the German economy, suffering as a result. The worst case result of Russia winning, either in Kiev those two weeks in February or a Hundred Days now, would not harm Germany to that degree. In fact, other than sanctions backfiring, Russia winning the war outright would cost Germany nothing. So, this is not a worthwhile sacrifice to prevent… what? The best possible result for Ukraine winning/”winning” this war does not come anywhere close to undoing or offsetting the damage. If attacked by Ukraine, without the Yanks, explain the strategic calculus and why Tornadoes weren’t going to Downtown Lwow and Kiev like it’s 1999. (because the Yanks did it)
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Aug 26, 2023 05:22
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gradenko_2000 posted:Vivek... Nord... the time of the Fifth Era is at hand But who recovered Prigozhin's Elder Scroll from the wreck of his plane?
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Aug 26, 2023 05:43
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Even if it was just the Ukrainians it wasn’t “just” the Ukrainians. No way do you pull shenanigans that big without your American handlers knowing and at minimum tacitly approving it. Imma go with Hersh on this one.
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Aug 26, 2023 05:43
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Can't SMERSH the Hersh!
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Aug 26, 2023 06:04
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isnt zaluzhny the one being groomed to replace zelensky? wonder how much of a wrench this article throws into those plans lol
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Aug 26, 2023 06:06
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Frosted Flake posted:If attacked by Ukraine, without the Yanks, explain the strategic calculus and why Tornadoes weren’t going to Downtown Lwow and Kiev like it’s 1999. well, respectfully, its probably that an entire government that is 1) personally, deeply psychologically invested in the narrative that Ukraine are the good guys 2) publicly staked to the position that Ukraine are the good guys worthy of political and military support is not going to spin on a dime and say Ukraine should be punished let alone attacked? I feel like the past couple years have totally exposed the idea of Europe as an independent foreign policy pole as a myth, and shown that European leaders are completely willing to suborn themselves to American interests even at the expense of their own people and sovereignty. The Germans sitting on this is protecting the US interest in the sense that they are willing to absorb damages to themselves in the name of the "Western" project
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Aug 26, 2023 06:15
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Raskolnikov38 posted:isnt zaluzhny the one being groomed to replace zelensky? wonder how much of a wrench this article throws into those plans lol no one can replace zelenskyy, hes a real life superhero
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Aug 26, 2023 06:25
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tatankatonk posted:that an entire government that is personally, deeply psychologically invested in the narrative that Ukraine are the good guys That's at odds with "damaged the nation on a massive scale through direct military action". Like, I get it, there are a lot of ways to think of "good" in politics, particularly for liberals. If you want to simplify, under all of the narratives, there is "acts in the national interest" and "acts against the national interest". Today, of course, you can supersede that with borderless flows of capital and our mercenary ruling class, fine. In both cases, people who attack the German nation directly - in ways that have been enumerated throughout this thread and remember last winter wasn't even that cold - and cause severe economic damage can't really be framed as the good guys, right? Good how? In realpolitik terms, they hurt the nation for no offset benefit. In idealist terms, they attacked the nation for no cause. Now, you could say "Politicians in Berlin work for DC and finance in New York and London", and you'd be right, and that's a problem all countries are going to have to confront, but when you operate under that set of rules, you still aren't thinking about the Ukrainians as good guys in this situation, just a necessary proxy to break Russia and weaken China. If you support the bombing to that degree, you may as well save yourself the trouble and have Bundesmarine divers do it. Which brings me back to, we'd be talking about Bush Did 9/11 levels of (charitably) willful blindness, without any of the upsides (for them, finance or the nation, I suppose in that order). e: Which isn't to dismiss it out of hand,       but RAND writes from an American perspective, where extending Russia and forcing imports of American LNG suits the American national interest. No German policy writer would endorse the same thing - economically, domestically, internationally, it's all cons and no pros. So we would be talking about an honest to God dolchstoß AfD win majorities off of until Barbarossa wakes up from under the mountain. If people found out their politicians destroyed the German economy on purpose, and in a visceral way, not like finance guys destroying New York through a bond auction in the 70's, those Junkers trying to restore the Kaiser will be the least of their problems. Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 06:33 on Aug 26, 2023 |
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Aug 26, 2023 06:26
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Ardennes posted:It is more the type of mission they were doing needed specialized equipment for explosives that large and heavy and it most likely was going to require a more specialized vessel which was going to be noticeable. i was TRYING to post mlmp-ishly but he's here now so my labour is complete
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Aug 26, 2023 06:33
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The rumours of a fall russian offensive after the Ukranian counter-offensive could be true. Better to do it before the additional western jets/tanks/equipments come in 2024 and Ukraine has probably taken around 75k--100k casualties during this offensive, considering how hard they are pushing this week. https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1695155317510730193
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Aug 26, 2023 06:34
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Frosted Flake posted:That's at odds with "damaged the nation on a massive scale through direct military action". I mean, it's at odds to you and me, but there's no actual rule that people have to regard the world through some kind of coherent heuristic, even if their actions add up to being part of a coherent sytem. people have enough room in their head to hold contradictory ideas and there's no reason to think they ever have to resolve them. People like Baerbock aren't going to go oh my god what have I done, and people like scholz aren't going to be like oh my god I need to change everything about my politics, they'll just adjust the facts of the situation in their head until it can be accomodated. of course, they can always be actually punished for this by losing to AfD, just like how liberal MIC bureaucrats run into the brick wall of not being able to make enough artillery shells for a war. but until the next election it'll be The Ukranians didn't do this, and if they did do it you can't prove it, and if you can prove it we can't do anything about it because of our strategic commitments, and if you say our strategic commitments are wrong it's because you love putler, etc. quote:Which brings me back to, we'd be talking about Bush Did 9/11 levels of (charitably) willful blindness, without any of the upsides (for them, finance or the nation, I suppose in that order). Yeah, pretty much. What was the upside of 9/11, or Brexit, or the Vietnam War
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Aug 26, 2023 06:40
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tatankatonk posted:Yeah, pretty much. What was the upside of 9/11, or Brexit, or the Vietnam War 9/11 and Vietnam bought a lot of people really nice suburban houses. I assume Brexit was to further loot the country don't know how effective that was
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Aug 26, 2023 06:46
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Should the West Fear Putin’s Fall?quote:Since the June 24 mutiny by the Wagner paramilitary group, which revealed so plainly the brittleness of the Russian regime, the possibility of a revolution, coup or other forced end of Putin’s 23-year reign has appeared more likely.
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Aug 26, 2023 06:56
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Frosted Flake posted:I'm curious if the Americans had the forethought to have Ukrainian Naval Commandos covertly charter a boat out to BALTOPS, because they were training with the Brits during that whole period, told them it was preparation for a strike on Crimea or something, maybe did some bullshit training and sent them home. In which case, if I was one of those guys I would try to disappear as quickly as possible before something bad happens to me. the failed crimea raid was to get their scapegoats killed so that they wouldn't be able to contradict the story 
Danann has issued a correction as of 07:47 on Aug 26, 2023 |
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Aug 26, 2023 07:33
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i say swears online posted:i wonder how true it is that yanukovych was in minsk waiting for the initial offensive to succeed to be installed as president India TV used to make epic documentaries about how you could find the runway from ramayana in sri lanka. Its really not a "respectable journalistic institution."
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Aug 26, 2023 07:35
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Tankbuster posted:India TV used to make epic documentaries about how you could find the runway from ramayana in sri lanka. Its really not a "respectable journalistic institution." look maybe atlantis was hindutva but we need more evidence to decide
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Aug 26, 2023 07:36
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Slavyangrad posted:
speaking of which greece doesn't need air defense when it can be buying f35s and patriots instead
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Aug 26, 2023 07:38
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Danann posted:(from t.me/Slavyangrad/60322, via tgsa) europe's streak of being the fail continent continues
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Aug 26, 2023 07:47
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Danann posted:(from t.me/Slavyangrad/60322, via tgsa) Cackling and twirling my villainous waxed moustache from a hot air balloon as the EU continues to disarm peacemeal.
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Aug 26, 2023 07:50
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gradenko_2000 posted:Vivek... Nord... the time of the Fifth Era is at hand The boat was undetected because azura shielded it from NATO detection!
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Aug 26, 2023 07:52
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Demilitarization of NATO.
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Aug 26, 2023 07:56
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A similar situation came up in one of my recent Pathfinder 5E campaign sessions, and one of the players at my table made a very memorable speech (in character): "In the realm of geopolitical intrigue, should it come to pass that the enigmatic operatives of the Northern Narlmarches, shrouded in secrecy, indeed orchestrated the detonation of the enchanted leyline, it shall cast no perturbing shadow upon the tapestry of my convictions concerning this grand conflict. Forsooth, they wage a valiant struggle, defending their sacred homeland against the incursion of an imperialistic aggressor, as though heroes defending the realm against a draconic invader."
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Aug 26, 2023 07:56
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Death By The Blues posted:The rumours of a fall russian offensive after the Ukranian counter-offensive could be true. Better to do it before the additional western jets/tanks/equipments come in 2024 and Ukraine has probably taken around 75k--100k casualties during this offensive, considering how hard they are pushing this week. I'll believe it when I see it, but then again I genuinely wonder if the russians are competent or capable of pulling off an actual concentrated offensive given that they've lost the element of surprise and the ukranians have had time to prepare for it. also, what sort of goals could they actually go for? there's no way they'll be able to make another run for Kharkov, so maybe just more modest goals like Slaveyansk/Kramatorsk?
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Aug 26, 2023 07:57
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Bad news for Russia - After Russia took significant losses in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Russia is being forced into regrouping its forces and capabilities, while transferring newly formed brigades and divisions from the territory of the Russian Federation. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-air-drone-strikes-eastern-front/32564271.html Russia Reinforcing Troops Ahead Of Renewed Offensive In 'Tense' East, Ukrainian General Says KYIV -- Russian forces are regrouping and sending in reinforcements in preparation of resuming their offensive in the east of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, said on August 25. "After a month of fierce fighting and significant losses in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy is regrouping its forces and capabilities, while transferring newly formed brigades and divisions from the territory of the Russian Federation," Syrskiy wrote on Telegram. Even while conducting its preparations, Russian troops “continue to exert a powerful fire influence from artillery and mortars” and are “actively using aviation” in their attacks, Syrskiy said, adding that Ukrainian forces are “taking all measures to strengthen our defense in threatened areas and move forward where possible.” “The operational situation in the eastern direction remains tense,” he added. Syrskiy’s comments come after Russia said it had thwarted a massive wave of drone attacks on occupied Crimea and a missile strike on Kaluga as Ukraine's military reported deadly air and drone strikes on its regions. Russia's Defense Ministry said on August 25 in a statement that its air defenses neutralized a total of 73 drones over the past 24 hours, 42 of them over Crimea. "Seventy-three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been either shot down or jammed by electronic means over the past day," the ministry said. The Moscow-appointed head of Sevastopol region in Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said several drones had been destroyed over the sea off Crimea's Cape Khersones. The Russian ministry also said a Ukrainian missile was downed in Kaluga, a region just southwest of Moscow, while Russian Telegram channels reported blasts in the sky above the Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow regions, likely caused by antiaircraft fire. Telegram channel Baza reported that the missile was shot down near the Shaikovka military airfield in Kaluga region, some 300 kilometers southwest of Moscow. Two major Moscow airports, Vnukovo and Domodedovo, temporarily ceased operations, Russian TASS news agency reported. There we no immediate reports of casualties or damages. Moscow and its surrounding have been targeted frequently by drone attacks in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military reported Russian air and missile attacks on Ukraine overnight, adding that there were casualties among civilians.
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Aug 26, 2023 07:59
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Bad news for Ukraine - This week's first GOP presidential debate — and recent comments on Ukraine by Trump, who leads in polling for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination — shows that previous bipartisan backing of Ukraine will face a stress test as the campaign intensifies and the leading Republican contenders show antipathy toward American backing of Ukraine. https://www.voanews.com/a/kremlin-denies-claims-it-masterminded-prigozhin-s-reported-death/7241609.html US Support for Ukraine May Be Waning as Presidential Election Nears August 25, 2023 4:34 PM update August 25, 2023 8:26 PM The handling of the war in Ukraine isn't as significant to American voters as the economy, health care, immigration, abortion and some other issues. Polling suggests that concerns about the costs of the war resonate with working-class Republican primary voters, says Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania. An AP-NORC poll conducted in January 2023 shows that almost a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, support by Democrats had dropped from 71% to 63% while Republican support had dropped more, from 53% to 39%. The United States has committed more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. That includes more than $43 billion in military aid. Dozens of Republicans in the House, and some GOP senators, have expressed reservations about — and even voted against — spending more federal dollars on the war in Ukraine. Many of those Republicans are aligning with former President Donald Trump's objections to U.S. involvement overseas. This week's first GOP presidential debate — and recent comments on Ukraine by Trump, who leads in polling for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination — shows that previous bipartisan backing of Ukraine will face a stress test as the campaign intensifies and the leading Republican contenders show antipathy toward American backing of Ukraine. Borick said U.S. President Joe Biden is not likely to win votes solely on his handling of Ukraine. But how the war plays out in the months ahead could help or diminish the president's broader argument about his administration's competency and success at restoring U.S. leadership on the international stage after four years of Trump's "American first" foreign policy approach. "Right now, Ukraine isn't as prominent an issue for voters, but we're seeing conservative presidential contenders such as Trump, [Vivek] Ramaswamy and [Florida Governor Ron] DeSantis setting the stage questioning how much U.S. treasure we're spending over there that we could be spending at home," he said.
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Aug 26, 2023 08:03
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Good news for Ukraine - Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses along part of the southern front lines in Zaporizhzhia region and are expanding a wedge toward the strategic town of Tokmak, while stepping up attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/25/europe/ukraine-offensive-robotyne-intl/index.html Ukrainian forces appear to widen breach of Russian defenses on southern front lines By Tim Lister, Josh Pennington, Olga Voitovych and Anna Chernova, CNN Updated 7:25 PM EDT, Fri August 25, 2023 Signs are growing that Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses along part of the southern front lines in Zaporizhzhia region and are expanding a wedge toward the strategic town of Tokmak, while stepping up attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian General Staff said Friday there had been further success in two areas – towards the village of Novoprokopivka and further east in the direction of another small settlement, Ocheretuvate. Earlier this week, the Ukrainians said they had secured the village of Robotyne. Fighting continues to the south of that village. The General Staff said units “are consolidating their positions, inflicting artillery fire on the identified enemy targets, and conducting counter-battery operations.” Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive has been underway for weeks with fighting focused along the eastern and southern fronts. Kyiv launched the campaign in the hope of recapturing territory seized by Russia. But so far, any gains have been small and painfully fought for. Now, several Russian military bloggers are painting a gloomy picture of the front line situation for Moscow’s forces in parts of the south. One of the best-known of these, “WarGonzo,” said the Ukrainians had gained a foothold in Robotyne “and are attacking Novoprokopivka, which is under heavy shelling.” Ukrainian forces have also launched a parallel attack in the Verbove area to the east – amid heavy artillery fire in both directions. A blogger called “Rogozin at the front,” who is linked to the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army, said there had been an accumulation of enemy armored vehicles. “The enemy is gathering forces for a decisive blow. They need to reach Verbove, then Tokmak,” he wrote. “We’re holding out.” Another blogger, “Belorusky silovik” [Belarusian Enforcer], said “the biggest worry right now is Robotyne. The boys are having it really hard there. By the evening the fighting was already going on in the south of the settlement, where the enemy was.” “It is objectively beginning to feel that there is a lack of new blood at the front,” the blogger wrote. “Otryady Kadyrovtsy” [Kadyrov Detachments] painted a similar picture, saying: “Heavy fighting continues in the Robotyne area. The bastards are rapidly advancing, covered by artillery strikes.” The blog said Ukraine was using aviation to cover advancing infantry and had brought more ammunition supplies into the area of Mala Tokmachka. Other sources report that Ukrainian forces are suffering heavy losses. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that 110 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the latest fighting, and western armor supplied to Ukraine destroyed. And Yevgeniy Balitskiy, the Russian-appointed governor of occupied Zaporizhzhia, said Friday that “at the cost of colossal losses yesterday the [Ukrainians] were able to reach the first defensive line of engineering barriers, but they move mostly even without artillery support.” “As a consequence, the enemy’s assault groups, which yesterday managed to reach the first defensive line, were completely destroyed overnight,” he added. Other Russian sources have made similar claims about substantial Ukrainian losses inflicted by Russian airpower and artillery. But Pozyvnoi Osetin, another Russian military blogger, reported that “losses on both sides are not insignificant.” “All the commanders on both sides are now concerned only about Robotyne. Fighting continues every minute,” they added. Another Russian blogger said this was a critical moment on the battlefield, adding that Russian forces need to hold their positions for at least another month and a half to try to make gains in another area of the frontline and attempt to shift the battlefield situation. On Thursday, the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern command, Nataliya Humenyuk, said Russian forces were bringing more forces to the Zaporizhzhia area from Kherson to the south, due to the heavy casualties among units already there. Yurii Malashko, head of Zaporizhzhia region military administration, said there were almost no buildings left standing in Robotyne after weeks of fighting in the area. “Our soldiers are slowly moving forward, but the mine barriers they [the Russians] have set up are very large, and it takes time to get through them.” In its latest assessment, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian forces “advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area … further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area.” ISW said “Russia’s lack of operational reserves will force the Russian command to conduct additional redeployments as Ukrainian counteroffensive operations continue to degrade defending Russian forces in several sectors of the front.” Kyiv pushing to break Russian land-bridge Ukrainian attacks in the area are part of Kyiv’s effort to push down to the Sea of Azov. The area is a major target for Ukraine as pushing deep into the territory would mean breaking Russia’s land-bridge between annexed Crimea and eastern Donetsk. The ISW previously said even marginal gains by Ukraine in this area are significant. “The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne – which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time, and resources to defend – remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time,” the ISW said. At the same time, Kyiv has been increasing attacks on Crimea. Ukrainian drone attacks in the early hours of Friday appear to have caused some damage, according to both Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers, and follow a series of Ukrainian attacks this week on Russian air defenses and missile sites on the western coast of Crimea. On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said 42 Ukrainian drones had been destroyed, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the drone attacks as “terrorist activity – because for the most part, it is aimed at residential buildings.” Boris Rozhin, a Russian military blogger, noted that the drone attacks were “the most massive drone raid on Crimea in recent months … The choice of targets for the strike is quite understandable: important airfields, air defense position areas, training camps.” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, told Ukrainian television Friday that “the importance of this operation, first of all, is to make people believe - people not even on the territory of mainland Ukraine, but in Crimea - to remember and believe that victory is not far off. And their liberation is not far off either.” “When there are, let’s say, certain strikes on the territory of Crimea, it will not end there - there will be a ground operation, there will be the return of our territories,” he added.
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Aug 26, 2023 08:06
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Bad news for Ukraine - Western establishment media (Wall Street Journal) continues to build the case for the West cutting its losses on Ukraine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-25/ukraine-slow-offensive-against-russia-buoys-putin Ukraine’s Slow Offensive Buoys Putin and Worries Allies By Alberto Nardelli, Natalia Drozdiak, and Alex Wickham August 25, 2023 at 12:07 PM UTC Ukraine’s allies now worry the war is dragging into a long fight that may strengthen Vladimir Putin’s hand as hopes fade that Kyiv’s forces will deliver a definitive breakthrough this year. More than two months into its counteroffensive, Kyiv has so far managed to make only tactical advances against heavily dug-in Russian forces, despite having committed many of the units trained and armed by the US and Europe for the operation. The window for further big actions is narrowing as wet and cold weather looms in the autumn. Ukraine and its allies vow to keep up the fight as long as needed, but officials concede it will be a tall order to repeat the levels of massive support that made the current push possible. Stocks of ammunition in particular are depleted and production in the US and Europe won’t be ramped up until late 2024. F-16 fighters likely won’t arrive until next year, either. Some of Ukraine’s supporters still see a chance its forces will break through Russian lines this year before the wet, cold weather sets in and complicates operations on Ukraine’s muddy steppes. Ukraine has confounded expectations and surprised Russia several times over the 18-month conflict, with the Kremlin yet to achieve any of its original goals. Cluster munitions supplied by the US in recent weeks have helped Kyiv’s troops push Russian forces back, allowing advances beyond the first line of defenses in some areas, according to people familiar with the matter. But as the offensive stretches on, sustaining aid is getting harder politically in the US. The fight to pass the next funding bill for Ukraine in Congress this fall is expected to be the toughest yet and this week’s Republican presidential candidate debate underlined the growing hostility in the party toward sending weapons and aid to Kyiv. European officials worry President Joe Biden may eventually look to nudge Ukraine toward negotiations in the absence of significant battlefield progress as the campaign heats up next year. Continued US support to Ukraine remains essential because Europe alone doesn’t have the military capacity to sufficiently bolster Kyiv’s forces, the people said. The Biden administration has repeatedly said it will back Ukraine for as long as it takes and has gradually increased the heft of weapons it’s providing Kyiv. If fighting grinds to an impasse over the winter, “it’s a really big problem, there’s going to be war fatigue,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “The US is going to be less and less interested in what’s happening in Ukraine and it’s going to be more and more difficult for Europeans to convince the Americans that Ukraine is an American problem.” Russia, meanwhile, has managed to get around allied attempts to starve its war effort of key components and has enough munitions for at least another year of fighting, the people said, noting that the Kremlin also has been able to continue bringing new troops to the front despite huge losses. Putin’s assessment is that a long war of attrition gives Russia an advantage, allied officials said, putting the onus on the US and Europe to prove him wrong. The death of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who staged a brazen but abortive mutiny in June, has cemented Putin’s control— at least for the moment. Prigozhin’s Wagner forces have largely pulled out of Ukraine. Earlier this year, the US and Europe were optimistic about significant progress as they poured armored vehicles, missile systems and other weapons into Ukraine, sending entire units for training in NATO countries. That hope has been replaced with a grudging recognition that even advanced weapons and tactics aren’t enough to rapidly defeat Russia’s massive and still-capable defenses. This assessment of Ukraine’s efforts to repel Russia out of its territory is based on documents seen by Bloomberg and conversations with multiple officials who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive information. After head-on attempts to breach Russian lines without sufficient air cover yielded major losses in the first weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces shifted tactics. Kyiv sought to wear its opponent down with long-range strikes on artillery and supply lines, probing with troops across a broad front. Advances have been slow. The US would have preferred Ukraine stick with concentrated efforts to punch through Russian lines. But without enough air support to suppress Russian defenses, Ukraine would have faced even more punishing losses that would have been difficult to sustain. That approach hasn’t delivered the kind of lightning victories that Ukraine had a year ago. Those successes had emboldened its leadership and allies to step up the fight to drive Russian troops from the roughly Portugal-sized swath of territory they still occupy. Publicly, Kyiv and its allies deny the war is heading into some form of a stalemate this year, but privately, some officials warn that’s increasingly likely as gains on the ground come only slowly. One of the diplomats said that given the rate of attrition and the resources at Ukraine’s disposal, Kyiv’s more calculated strategy was on balance the right call despite the added time it requires to execute. Early Thursday, Ukrainian commandos staged a raid in occupied Crimea in a symbolic move on the nation’s Independence Day. Ukrainian troops also reported progress near the town of Robotyne in the south, where they are fighting through Russian minefields and trench systems in a push aimed at cutting off the Kremlin’s land bridge to its forces in Crimea. Robotyne is tactically significant because a Ukrainian advance in the area may allow Kyiv’s forces to begin operating past the densest Russian minefields, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said earlier this week. But the heavy use of mines, combined with Russia’s air power, has been a particular challenge. Russian forces have relaid minefields and re-erected obstacles using artillery and helicopters as Ukrainians push toward or through frontlines — and in some cases have redeployed mines behind the Ukrainian forces — one Western intelligence official said. While more demining equipment would help, Ukraine also needs short-range air defense systems to help protect the advancing units, the official said. While the Kremlin remains convinced it can outlast the US and its allies, its war effort has also faced headwinds as the conflict drags on. Recruiting is on pace to deliver only 230,000 new troops this year, short of the Kremlin’s 400,000 target, according to a UK official. That’s hampered its ability to mount new offensives, especially with its own minefields limiting room for operations. But even that reduced flow of fresh forces is still quite substantial. And Russia has been successful at ramping up its ammunition and other supplies. It has enough ammunition of various kinds for about a year because they’ve been able to import sanctioned components or substitute them, allowing them to produce at a rate faster than in Europe by adapting and cutting corners, one official said. Another variable that may determine the shape of a lengthier war is the stability of Putin’s regime in the longer term. Prigozhin’s alleged assassination will have signification implications, even if those take time to play out. As one official noted, the mercenary leader’s death won’t cover up the weakness that his insurrection exposed nor undo the damage to Putin’s image.
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Aug 26, 2023 08:12
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Officer Sandvich posted:Should the West Fear Putin’s Fall? Anti-democracy kleptocrat propaganda is good.
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Aug 26, 2023 08:57
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One of the simplest tells is : are western powers acting like they just witnessed key geopolitically strategic infrastructure can be knocked out by a few guys on a yacht. It's 2023 and I still have to take my shoes off at an airport because someone once failed to blow up a plane that way. Or are they more acting like, "Jesus Christ don't even mildly publicly push back against US foreign policy on Ukraine, the US is not loving around" which would imply...
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Aug 26, 2023 09:21
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