War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 4 days!)

spankmeister posted:

This is as bad a look for Germany itself as it is for Ukraine.

They got advance warning but their politicians disregarded it out of naïveté and stupidity, and their crippling bureaucracy meant the information never got to anyone who could do something about it. Great job all around.

And Germany can claim plausible deniability for an outcome everyone wanted anyhow.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 07:51

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 13:41

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

Rust Martialis posted:

And Germany can claim plausible deniability for an outcome everyone wanted anyhow.

As a German, this story is always extra funny to me, because I have to remember how our new government in 2022 started floating this idea that we could dismantle Nordstream ourselves, since it had been the pet project of the conservative government before them and the Greens absolutely hated the thing. Yeah, I can imagine a lot of people in government were looking at this info and all that happened was excitement about not having to pay for blowing the thing themselves. :v:

# ? Aug 26, 2023 08:24

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 4 days!)

Plus a nice gently caress you to Gerhard Schroeder

# ? Aug 26, 2023 08:46

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

If it turns out Ukrainian secret agents did in fact blow up the pipeline it will change exactly none of the rest of my opinions about the war. They're fighting a war of self-defense against an imperialist invader.

I understand why a government in the position of Ukraine will use all available means to increase their chances and I don't particularly care about the pipeline. However, I think this, if the Ukrainian government is responsible, was poor judgment and demonstrates a lack of faith in its European allies. Events such as Darya Duguna and Vladlen Tatarsky were also poor choices with little practical impact and high risk of blowback.

To be clear we don't know with certainty how many or if any of these events are related to the Ukrainian government.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 10:31

fez_machine: Nov 27, 2004

Ukraine not being able to reign in its spooks is not good at all but yeah not changing my opinion on the war.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 10:32

Paranoea: Aug 4, 2009

Nord Stream was a means of waging hybrid warfare on the EU and Germany specifically, and it was being used for that from '21 onwards (throttling gas flow due to "repairs" in order to starve Germany of gas reserves for the coming winter). It is objectively good that it's gone, and who ultimately blew it up is a red herring that should impact no one's opinion of the war, or influence any policy decisions.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 11:21

Chalks: Sep 30, 2009

Ultimately the West doesn't want to know who did it so I doubt we'll ever know

# ? Aug 26, 2023 11:38

Mr SuperAwesome: Apr 6, 2011; im from the bad post police, and i'm afraid i have bad news

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

If it turns out Ukrainian secret agents did in fact blow up the pipeline it will change exactly none of the rest of my opinions about the war. They're fighting a war of self-defense against an imperialist invader.

If you're fighting a war of self-defence it seems a bit unwise to attack critical infrastructure supplying your closest allies, especially the ones that are part of a mutual defence treaty where everyone has nukes.

If Russia was proven to have blown up the pipeline, people would be calling for invoking Article 5. Why not now?

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:26

beer_war: Mar 10, 2005

For starters, no one has proven anything yet.

Next question.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:30

jaete: Jun 21, 2009; Nap Ghost

Eh, I read the article and there's pretty much no actual evidence presented that would implicate Ukraine (or any other state for that matter). Some facts are known but those don't point anywhere in particular. The rest is a nice well written story of what we do know, a bunch of background detail, plus lots of nameless sources speculating that surely it must have been Ukraine.

The Finnlandisierung of the various German security agencies over the last 30 years has been so thorough that I'm just not going to believe any of their speculations, no offence. The frustrating thing though is that there aren't many facts available either. This makes discussing the whole thing a bit frustrating. But while we're speculating, here's an interesting counter-speculation by Nielsen (who is Danish):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk-0qJXyido

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:31

beer_war: Mar 10, 2005

jaete posted:

Eh, I read the article and there's pretty much no actual evidence presented that would implicate Ukraine (or any other state for that matter). Some facts are known but those don't point anywhere in particular. The rest is a nice well written story of what we do know, a bunch of background detail, plus lots of nameless sources speculating that surely it must have been Ukraine.

Can't stress this enough, really. It's several thousand words to say German investigators believe it was Ukrainians for reasons. Secret reasons.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:35

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

Mr SuperAwesome posted:

If Russia was proven to have blown up the pipeline, people would be calling for invoking Article 5. Why not now?

No they wouldn't. If it had been proven that Russia blew up the ammunition warehouse in Chechia we also wouldn't have invoked article 5. Or when they shot down an airliner.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:37

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

There's nothing particularly new in the article.

In any case, Germany's strategic interests override any curiosity over the pipeline. If the Ukrainian government orchestrated it, that would be something to deal with once Russia's imperial ambitions have been squashed and the Eastern border of the EU has been secured.

Mr SuperAwesome posted:

If Russia was proven to have blown up the pipeline, people would be calling for invoking Article 5. Why not now?

No they would not.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:43

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

If Ukraine blew up nordstream, the same thing applies as when "the Americans did it" was the hot take of the day: loving thank you, somebody had to do it, and God knows the Germans wouldn't.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 12:57

CatHorse: Jan 5, 2008

Are those the same security agencies that told Bellingcat guy that they cant protect him in Germany, because Russian assassins have free rein there?

# ? Aug 26, 2023 13:25

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

Germany's intelligence agencies are gimped. Understandably so, they have uh, some history.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 13:53

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

MikusR posted:

Are those the same security agencies that told Bellingcat guy that they cant protect him in Germany, because Russian assassins have free rein there?

I think that was Austria? German is the one who had their chief fleeing Kyiv in panic the say the full-scale invasion started.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 13:55

KingaSlipek: Jun 14, 2009

If you know German, I highly recommend watching this report by ZDF.

What�s astonishing to me is, despite being a joint investigation, that the SPIEGEL article does not even mention
the biggest lead pointing to Russia: the owner of the company renting out the yacht that was used to destroy NS is a woman who used to live in occupied Crimea and is now living in Russia (around 11 minutes into the ZDF video).

Likewise, the ZDF report does not go much into the biggest lead pointing to Ukraine, which apparently had several unnamed German sources convinced it was a Ukrainian commando: a Ukrainian soldier�s passport used
when checked by authorities at one of the harbours. There is, however, no evidence that man was ever on board
the yacht. Adding to that, the passport was fake.

Questions: Why would Zaluzhny not be fired immediately, if it was indeed his commando?
Why would the Russians blame the U.S. if the Kyiv asset told the Dutch intelligence what the Ukrainians were planning and the Russians somehow heard of it (hence their increased presence at the detonation sites during the BALTOPS exercise) ?
Why is Scholz making sure no one learns too much about the perpetrators?

MikusR posted:

Are those the same security agencies that told Bellingcat guy that they cant protect him in Germany, because Russian assassins have free rein there?

That was Austria, I believe.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:03

Gervasius: Nov 2, 2010; Grimey Drawer

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1695410917175926900?t=1HMp0U3sP6x9VsUkea838A&s=19

Well this sucks.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:19

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Austria isn't Germany yet, just want to make that clear.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:21

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

I continue to be convinced that russia is the most likely culprit based off the fact that it would have been really stupid and petty for russia to have done it

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:38

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

fez_machine posted:

Ukraine not being able to reign in its spooks is not good at all but yeah not changing my opinion on the war.

not suprised, nord stream was a massive FU to Ukraine from Europe.

and the SBU is an insane immoral corrupt organization, like most spy agencies, even if they didn't do this

FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Aug 26, 2023

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:41

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Mr SuperAwesome posted:

If you're fighting a war of self-defence it seems a bit unwise to attack critical infrastructure supplying your closest allies, especially the ones that are part of a mutual defence treaty where everyone has nukes.

If Russia was proven to have blown up the pipeline, people would be calling for invoking Article 5. Why not now?

NATO should invoke article 5 and launch on operation to guard critical infrastructure, regardless of who is responsible.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:44

Libluini: May 18, 2012; I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...; Grimey Drawer

KingaSlipek posted:

Why is Scholz making sure no one learns too much about the perpetrators?

Plot twist: It was actually the BND who blew the pipeline :tinfoil:

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:45

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

Antigravitas posted:

Austria isn't Germany yet, just want to make that clear.

I think you mean anymore

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:56

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Libluini posted:

Plot twist: It was actually the BND who blew the pipeline

That would explain why the job is half-done.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:56

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

FishBulbia posted:

and the SBU is an insane immoral corrupt organization, like most spy agencies, even if they didn't do this

To be honest I've been steadily coming around to this view. Their operations strike me as being opportunistic and based more around the question of "CAN we pull this off?" rather than "SHOULD we pull this off?" Leaving aside the whole bridge bombing debate, there's also the recent high-profile but low-impact Moscow attacks as well. They give me the impression of being glory hounds (strangely for a secret service) who want to show off what they can do, cost what it may. If they actually had been responsible for the Nordstream bombing without Zelensky's knowledge, I'd be pretty comfortable with considering them a rogue organization making decisions way above their paygrade given that the Nordstream bombing had a whole raft of potential consequences that really needed to be cleared by the chief executive before going ahead. And if they weren't responsible...well, I'm still keeping an eye on them. I've got no qualms about supporting Ukraine in general but considering that an intelligence agency that interprets its remit too broadly is a danger to everyone, including their host country.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 14:57

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

spankmeister posted:

I think you mean anymore

�yes. Ha! Ha! That is definitely what I meant.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 15:04

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

Tomn posted:

I've got no qualms about supporting Ukraine in general but considering that an intelligence agency that interprets its remit too broadly is a danger to everyone, including their host country.

Being for reforming the SBU is supporting the future of Ukraine. It was one of Zelensky's objectives before the fullscale war.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-zelensky-is-purging-the-security-services-of-ukraine/

quote:

Zelenksy�s purge of the SBU did not come out of the blue. For years there have been deep-seated concerns about the agency, which has been dogged with allegations of corruption, abuses of power and Russian penetration.

Back in 2020, I asked a Ukrainian think tanker what he thought the biggest threat to his country was, expecting him to say Russia. Instead, he immediately answered, �the SBU, because only we Ukrainians can break our own revolution.�

Formed out of the Ukrainian division of the Soviet KGB in 1991, the SBU managed to avoid serious reform for decades. It remains a huge agency with more than 35,000 staff, close to the size of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and eight times as big as MI5.

Since the 2014 �Revolution of Dignity� there has been progress in bringing greater transparency, professionalism and honesty to the agency though. One US intelligence officer was fulsome in praising the work done by a unit he worked with from 2019 to 2021, before pausing and reluctantly adding �but there are still some people and whole departments that really wouldn�t be out of place in the KGB.�

From my own experiences, I have met tremendously impressive SBU officers, genuinely committed not just to defending their country from foreign threats and domestic challenges, but doing so in a way that is transparent and follows the law. Yet at the same time � despite the fact that I have been blacklisted by the Kremlin � the closest I have come to being arrested by any security agency in the region was by a bunch of thuggish SBU heavies who were looking either for a payoff or some fun at a foreigner�s expense.

The fear that the SBU could be a serious threat to genuine political reform helps explain why, in 2019, Zelensky appointed as the SBU�s director not a career intelligence professional but his childhood friend and the manager of his election campaign headquarters.

It was controversial at the time, but reflected the new president�s clear mistrust of the existing power structures inside the agency. He thought an outsider like Bakanov had the best chance of being able to bring about real change. Bakanov has had successes to be sure, helped by considerable western assistance. While the British, American and other intelligence communities focused on practical capacity-building, EUAM, the EU Advisory Mission for Civilian Security Sector Reform, pushed for proper legal oversight.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 15:09

Bell_: Sep 3, 2006; Tiny Baltimore
A billion light years away
A goon's posting the same thing
But he's already turned to dust
And the shitpost we read
Is a billion light-years old
A ghost just like the rest of us

Tomn posted:

They give me the impression of being glory hounds (strangely for a secret service) who want to show off what they can do, cost what it may.

Everyone thinks they're Sterling Archer.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 15:15

Griefor: Jun 11, 2009

Zopotantor posted:

It�s because of this guy.

Snipee posted:

This is amazing

Later life posted:

On 24 November 1989, while doing his obligatory community service (Zivildienst) as an orderly in a West German hospital, Rust stabbed a female co-worker who had rejected him. The victim barely survived.

This, however, is not amazing

# ? Aug 26, 2023 15:36

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1695378258181706075

Full text:

quote:

The AFU 82nd Air Mobile Brigade is carrying the brunt of the fight south of #Robotyne while the 46th Assault Brigade does the same to the east in the direction of #Verbove. Russian sources have admitted that the 82nd has made gains to the east and occupied a portion of the main Russian defenses in that direction.

Rumors that the Russians are fighting in Robotyne appear to be just that. Instead, there are a grouping of trenches and strongpoints in the gap between Robotyne and #Novoprokopivka from which the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, supported by other units, has attempted several counterattacks with little if any tangible results due to heavy artillery fire from AFU supporting units to the rear. This is not to say, however, that the fighting in this sector has not been brutal with losses on both sides.

Note: This is not OPSEC and is based on OSINT from Russian and Ukrainian Sources:

There are also indications that the AFU has cleared and penetrated some of the heavily mined areas along Russia's main line of defense in this area. Key to this are reports from Ukrainian sources that they have taken control of one or more key GLOC(s) (ground lines of communication). If true, this is extremely good news. Controlling these GLOCs will not only allow the AFU to further breach the main lines of defense, but increase the tempo of their advances. In a sign that the AFU will move rapidly to take advantage of this, the Russian Mil-blogger Rybar reported this morning, with a sense of trepidation, that the AFU has positioned additional reserves in the AO (18th Mechanized Brigade and 15th Kara-Dag National Guard Brigade) which, in his words, will "enter the battle to further break through the defense." "Further" being the operative word.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 15:51

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

Gervasius posted:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1695410917175926900?t=1HMp0U3sP6x9VsUkea838A&s=19

Well this sucks.

Yeah, this is definitely sad. Juice was one of the pilots interviewed in early/mid-2022 about how the Ukrainian air force was doing.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 17:16

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Paranoea posted:

Nord Stream was a means of waging hybrid warfare on the EU and Germany specifically, and it was being used for that from '21 onwards (throttling gas flow due to "repairs" in order to starve Germany of gas reserves for the coming winter). It is objectively good that it's gone, and who ultimately blew it up is a red herring that should impact no one's opinion of the war, or influence any policy decisions.

Exactly my thoughts. Anyone upset about it, especially Europeans, seemed like they had been living in a fantasy land.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 18:09

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Mr. Apollo posted:

A Wagnerite cemetery has been "erased". All the graves dug up, memorials removed, and levelled.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1695044436038693017?s=20

This turned out to be largely fake/overhyped. They're turning it into a standard military cemetery.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1695118908276031574

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1695120578921841053

# ? Aug 26, 2023 19:19

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

Vox Nihili posted:

This turned out to be largely fake/overhyped. They're turning it into a standard military cemetery.

Ah, good to know. Thanks. :tipshat:

# ? Aug 26, 2023 19:24

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Vox Nihili posted:

This turned out to be largely fake/overhyped. They're turning it into a standard military cemetery.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1695120578921841053

It looks like they're turning it into an anti-tank obstacle.

# ? Aug 26, 2023 19:27