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fatherboxx)
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:There’s a very good reason why WWI poetry became a poignant expression of the common soldiers’ experience, and something to learn from. Sadly it seems that those lessons have been forgotten. There are other wars, and other lessons, and curiously enough Russia and Ukraine themselves provide a pretty appropriate lesson for you specifically. In the autumn of 1941 one could be very well forgiven for thinking that the Soviet Union was on the brink of utter collapse. Practically their entire prewar army had been annihilated, the Nazis were making vast inroads on Soviet territory, and this, keep in mind, from the force that had so shockingly overrun France, a great power that had been critical to the victory in WW1, in little more than a month. Soviet attempts to strike back were haphazard and largely unsuccessful, Nazi momentum seemed unstoppable, and in general a civilian observer could be very well forgiven for thinking that the Soviet Union was doomed. They could have very easily said "Oh, well, given what we've seen so far, it would be pointless to resist and would merely result in meaningless bloodshed, and if Stalin was a wise man who truly cared about his people, he would sue for peace on whatever terms he could get. What other path forward to peace is there?" Should he have, on the basis of what the war looked like to someone reading the newspapers in Detroit? This is particularly relevant because Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union at the time and was in fact a critical battleground over which the Nazis were fighting. As part of the Soviet Union memories of the Great Patriotic War would have lasted in their history textbooks for a long time, and they won't be slow to draw the parallels between the experience of the Soviet Union in the past and their own situation fending off Russian invaders. They will not, I suspect, be as quick as you are to view a peace treaty as an acceptable option, not until hope has been ground away far more than this. One might also look at Britain in 1940. Here, the United Kingdom's continental ally, France, had fallen. The UK had not really the manpower nor really the industrial might to contemplate an invasion and liberation of France by itself. The Nazis had, seemingly effortlessly, toppled France and Poland, and stood poised to dominate the continent, and were busily bombing Britain daily and, so it was said, preparing for invasion. U-boats prowled the sealanes, strangling British trade so vital to its survival. The UK had no real path to victory other than the long, slow effects of blockade - but with the resources of Europe at their disposal who could say how long it would take for the Nazis to fall by that route alone? With Britain steadily being bombed out and no path forward, would it not have been the wiser course to sue for peace? Should one not have simply acknowledged the new reality that the Nazis were masters of Europe, however unpalatable that might be, and allowed them to keep their gains? Should not Britain have ended preventable British deaths, while salvaging what they could of their own nation and foreign situation, instead of continuing a meaningless and futile struggle? Of course with hindsight one might say that both situations weren't actually as hopeless as they looked. The UK had close ties with the US, and there were reasonable expectations that all the industrial might of America might come in to tip the scales. The Nazis had no real possibility of successfully invading the British Isles. The Soviet Union had greater political and military resilience than Hitler had anticipated, and the industrial capacity to rebuild. Most of these things would have been apparent, to some degree, to experts observing the situation. But not, critically, to the average Joe on the ground at the time who looks only at maps and the moving of border lines, nor to newspapers and magazines drawing giant arrows across the North Sea breathlessly predicting imminent invasion. In the same way, we here on the ground today CAN see certain things and try to draw conclusions from them - but we must also acknowledge that there's a lot of variables that are hidden from us that might affect how things will go in the future. How well can Russia replace artillery tubes lost to counter-battery fire? What is the current state of Ukrainian and Russian reserves? What is the current logistical configuration of Russian forces around the breakthrough point, and do they still have spare capacity or are they being overstretched? These, and others, are all questions that might determine how things will go as the offensive continues - but are not questions we here are at all able to answer. It seems premature, then, to say that there is absolutely no path forward to peace, and an absolute moral need for a peace treaty, right this moment. PS I'll also add that your understanding of WW1 is amateurish at best. It wasn't actually machineguns and trenches mowing down vast hordes of men charging across no man's land that actually caused the most casualties - in fact, most of the time the DEFENDER suffered more casualties initially because the attacker gets to choose when to attack, and mass the most men possible to attack, while making sure the trenches are absolutely blanketed in artillery fire the whole time. The bulk of casualties for the attacker actually came about when the defender COUNTER-ATTACKED, because at this point the attacker would have had to trace a logistical and communications line back across no man's land, leaving them out of contact with HQ (which therefore had no idea where offensives were succeeding and needed to be reinforced, or where offensives at stalled) and out of supply as well as being exhausted while the defender had access to both railways and secure communication lines that allowed them to ship in reinforcements and shatter the exhausted defenders, driving them out of the trenches they had taken. Nor were most WW1 generals (aside from Cadorna, famously reputed the worst general of WW1) actually incompetent, including the Haig you so mock - they were well aware that the current situation was painful, and almost every general on the Western Front tried quite hard to find various ways to break the trench stalemate, all of which ran upon the limitations of the current technology - there simply wasn't really a path to victory other than pure attritional warfare breaking down the enemy's ability to resist, not with the technology of the time. And in any event, this all refers to the Western front - the Eastern front, against Russia, was always a great deal more fluid than what was happening at the Somme. Trenches, while important there, weren't quite as prominent as they are in Western memory.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:19
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Morrow posted:This is the other thing: Ukraine can't really make peace with Putin. He's spent the last thirty years demonstrating that any agreement or treaty is only valid as long as it's convenient to him. Prigozhin is the most recent example of that, but Minsk 1 and 2 are previous Ukrainian attempts. Minsk 3 would just be a ceasefire while Putin tries to rearm faster than Ukraine can. Which is why no future peace treaty can come without credible security guarantees that Putin wouldn't want to test. And not sure if there's appetite for that in the US (yet?), because let's face it, whatever parties to the security agreement there would hypothetically be, the US would have to be among them.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:22
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:In theory, Ukraine saying to Russia 'Okay you get to keep what you have, but if you cross this current line of control NATO is gonna gently caress you up and we have security guarantees now and are joining the EU have a nice life we never want to talk to you again' and living it's best life would probably be the best thing long term for Ukraine-winning the peace, rebuild, save lives etc. But that isn't politically viable in Ukraine itself right now, and Russia wouldn't sign up for that either. So it's a moot point. Until the revanchist mindset in the elite changes, they're going to continue to fight, because accepting any result other than a serious Ukrainian loss is accepting that Russia will further decline. The aim is to reverse the decline - at everyone else's expense. Whether their minds can be changed through defeats Ukraine inflicts upon them on the battlefield, the impact of Western sanctions, eventual domestic unrest/interelite tensions, etc, remains to be seen. But the war won't end until their minds are changed - it might be paused, or temporarily frozen as a tactic to buy time - but it won't end.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:34
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Jon posted:Didn't WWI start with Serbians fighting a war against invasion? Yeah and over 50% of Serbia's adult male population died as a result. Despite their entire country being occupied, a hundred thousand soldiers withdrew and continued to fight in Greece. That's the level of motivation that exists in an existential war.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:34
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Yeah and over 50% of Serbia's adult male population died as a result. Despite their entire country being occupied, a hundred thousand soldiers withdrew and continued to fight in Greece. I don't agree that world war one was an existential war as much as it was inter-imperialist rivalry, which seems like a terrible reason for half of an adult male population to die.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:50
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Jon posted:I don't agree that world war one was an existential war as much as it was inter-imperialist rivalry, which seems like a terrible reason for half of an adult male population to die. It was certainly an existential war for Serbia.
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Aug 30, 2023 16:57
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:It was certainly an existential war for Serbia. Would Serbia cease to exist because it's governed by a different aristocracy?
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Aug 30, 2023 16:59
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Jon posted:Would Serbia cease to exist because it's governed by a different aristocracy? Do you know literally anything about this besides a loving Dan Carlin podcast.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:02
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Xiahou Dun posted:Do you know literally anything about this besides a loving Dan Carlin podcast. About WWI or the Russian invasion of Ukraine? I don't know who Dan Carlin is.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:04
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Jon posted:About WWI or the Russian invasion of Ukraine? I don't know who Dan Carlin is. About WWI. A thing you clearly should shut up about. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 30, 2023 17:05
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Xiahou Dun posted:About WWI. A thing you clearly should shut up about. It's hard to respond to that substantively, so I'll just say that yes I am pretty familiar with WWI.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:05
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Jon posted:It's hard to respond to that substantively, so I'll just say that yes I am pretty familiar with WWI. Your comments say otherwise.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:08
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Xiahou Dun posted:Your comments say otherwise. Happy to be corrected or instructed!
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Aug 30, 2023 17:09
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Does anyone have any poems from Caesar's invasion of Gaul and how that applies to Ukrainians giving up in this war? Thanks.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:09
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Me, to Serbian nationalists: Have you tried... not being Serbian?
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Aug 30, 2023 17:09
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the holy poopacy posted:Me, to Serbian nationalists: Have you tried... not being Serbian? That's not really what Laptchevic and Kaclerovic were advocating, was it?
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Aug 30, 2023 17:11
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SO HOW ABOUT THOSE AIRPORT BOMBINGS HUH Four IL76s gone, that's kinda big.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:13
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Jon posted:It's hard to respond to that substantively, so I'll just say that yes I am pretty familiar with WWI. Are you familiar with the reasoning, pretext and war-goals of the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia? Spoiler: It wasn't to 'replace their governing aristocracy with a different one'.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:13
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Kikas posted:SO HOW ABOUT THOSE AIRPORT BOMBINGS HUH Apparently that pic is decades old, sorry. 
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Aug 30, 2023 17:15
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Kikas posted:SO HOW ABOUT THOSE AIRPORT BOMBINGS HUH This particular image is from an unrelated incident, apparently, but hopefully someone will get some satellite imagery soon ...
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Aug 30, 2023 17:16
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Rugz posted:Are you familiar with the reasoning, pretext and war-goals of the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia? Spoiler: It wasn't to 'replace their governing aristocracy with a different one'. You're right to refer to the assassination of a single diplomat as pretext, but I believe you're incorrect that imperial expansionist impulses were not the prevailing motivation.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:16
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Tigey posted:I actually fully agree with everything you posted, but I'd go a bit further than you on this, and say that I don't think there's an actual end to this war without Russia changing in some way. Your analysis of the causes is in my view correct - its driven mainly by internal revanchism within the Russian elites - an inability to accept the collapse of the Russian Empire and their declining influence in their former colonies. Everything else is just window-dressing, to allow them to adopt the narrative of victimhood (NATO betrayal, etc) to gain domestic popular support and international sympathy from anti-Western groups I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. As ridiculous as it sounds, they want nice buffer states to so slow down any invasions that could come their way. If Ukraine was a part of NATO, it would trigger an existential crisis for whoever is in change.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:24
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daslog posted:I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. This is nonsense.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:25
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daslog posted:they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. Could you say more about this? I don't know a huge amount about Russian geography, but I was always under the strong impression that Russia is made of favorable geography to slow down invaders (admittedly this is an impression mostly informed by the Napoleonic era, but are mountains and blizzards that much more passable today?)
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Aug 30, 2023 17:28
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OddObserver posted:This is nonsense. It really is, Napoleon was the last one and that was over two hundred years ago. Japan has been more of a problem to Russia than Europe has been, since then.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:31
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Jon posted:You're right to refer to the assassination of a single diplomat as pretext, but I believe you're incorrect that imperial expansionist impulses were not the prevailing motivation. In this case the imperial goal wasn't just to eliminate Serbian identity among the local elites but the eliminate all Serbian national consciousness throughout the land. They banned cyrillic writings and tried to forcibly re-educate every school age child in Austrian German using teachers imported from Austria. There was mass internment and mass deportation of women and children. This wasn't some sort of minor poo poo isolated to the elite, but an attempt to rewrite the entire culture of the masses. The Austro-Hungarian imperial leadership were not going to stop with the Serbian bourgeoisie, they were going to rip the Serbian out of the Serbian proletariat with raw brutal force. golden bubble fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 17:32
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:. Even Navalny wants Crimea for Russia, and I didn't realize Yeltsin had wanted it way back in 1991. Neither of these is true. Yeltsin never attempted anything and was okay with it in 1991, Crimea revanchism was mostly revived in late 90s by Moscow mayor Luzhkov in an attempt to play in federal politics; Navalny's position prior to 2022 has always been "it is not easy to reverse" because of all that Kotkin described - the pro-russian population is a major destabilising factor. daslog posted:That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. The only person obsessed with land grabs and rolling tanks on maps is Vladimir Putin and his boomer elite gated community . It is 21st century, even insane nationalists are more afraid of collaborators inviting NATO troops by air. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 17:35
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daslog posted:I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. As ridiculous as it sounds, they want nice buffer states to so slow down any invasions that could come their way. If Ukraine was a part of NATO, it would trigger an existential crisis for whoever is in change. What, the Napoleonic Invasion and the Nazi Invasion? What European invasion of Russia do they forsee? Every member of the EU has forsaken all claims on Russian territory. Even Kaliningrad, the most logical piece of land for EU countries to want, all of them have given up all claims on it. No one wants to invade Russia anymore, no one wants offensive wars over territory anymore, it's over except for strange fears from the Russian elite over non-existent threats.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:36
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Jon posted:You're right to refer to the assassination of a single diplomat as pretext, but I believe you're incorrect that imperial expansionist impulses were not the prevailing motivation. The war in general, but Austria-Hungary was a moribund empire with a dysfunctional legislature that had the heir to its throne assassinated in a false flag attack with ties to the head of the Serbian intelligence agency, at a time when Serbia seemed economically ascendant and on the verge of a domestic arms industry. The Serbian ethno-nationalist movement wanted to expand; AH wanted to take Serbia down a few pegs before they could become a real problem. Characterizing the Austro-Hungarians as being motivated by imperialist expansionist impulse is...strange.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:36
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Jon posted:Could you say more about this? I don't know a huge amount about Russian geography, but I was always under the strong impression that Russia is made of favorable geography to slow down invaders (admittedly this is an impression mostly informed by the Napoleonic era, but are mountains and blizzards that much more passable today?) Sure. It's an 11 hour drive from Kiev to Moscow. There are no oceans, impassible Mountains, etc in between the two. Now, imagine a few brigades of NATO troops stationed in Kiev and what that does psychologically to Putin or the next Russian dictator. It's a situation that is completely untenable for them.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:39
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daslog posted:Sure. It's an 11 hour drive from Kiev to Moscow. There are no oceans, impassible Mountains, etc in between the two. Untenable because it would prevent further Russian imperial agression against Ukraine, not because they actually would fear being invaded.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:41
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daslog posted:Sure. It's an 11 hour drive from Kiev to Moscow. There are no oceans, impassible Mountains, etc in between the two. It's an 11-hour drive from Tallinn or Riga to Moscow. The situation already exists and is quite tenable to Moscow.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:42
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Characterizing the Austro-Hungarians as being motivated by imperialist expansionist impulse is...strange. Serbian socialists Laptchevic and Kaclerovic made clear that this was their analysis up to and during the war. Rosa Luxemburg makes a pretty extensive defense of that analysis in her Junius Pamphlet.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:43
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MatchaZed posted:What, the Napoleonic Invasion and the Nazi Invasion? What European invasion of Russia do they forsee? Every member of the EU has forsaken all claims on Russian territory. Even Kaliningrad, the most logical piece of land for EU countries to want, all of them have given up all claims on it. No one wants to invade Russia anymore, no one wants offensive wars over territory anymore, it's over except for strange fears from the Russian elite over non-existent threats. Yes, I agree completely but this is the western point of view. The Russian dictator point of view doesn't align with that.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:44
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daslog posted:Yes, I agree completely but this is the western point of view. The Russian dictator point of view doesn't align with that. LOL, the point of view you share isn't the Russian point of view, it's the point of view spread by them for Western suckers who want to mumble about Russia's "genuine security interests".
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Aug 30, 2023 17:46
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Ultimately there are just a handful of ways a war can end:
Russian demands are also so unpalatable for Ukraine that the Ukrainian leadership has assessed that the country is better off continuing to fight. The international community could of course force Ukraine to give in by cutting off support, but because that would encourage shameless land grabs, the only reason to do so is because you're already eying your neighbour's territory. Thus it all boils down to the will to keep fighting. The US didn't pull out of Afghanistan because American troops ran out of bullets, bombs and Humvees to throw at the Taliban, they got out because the American public had lost the will to continue prosecuting the war. The Ukrainians have a massive two-pronged advantage in this regard: their cause is just and the threat is existential. The average Russian, on the other hand, has nothing but their pride for a dying empire at stake. The Kremlin knows this, so its only hope is to whip up a state cult of war rivalling North Korea, lest Russia ends up like the Portuguese, French or British empires or, for more recent examples, the martial regimes of Argentina and Serbia.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:47
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Deteriorata posted:It's an 11-hour drive from Tallinn or Riga to Moscow. The situation already exists and is quite tenable to Moscow. Exactly! Losing Estonia and Latvia was bad enough. Losing Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Moscow and must be stopped from Putin's point of view.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:47
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daslog posted:Exactly! Losing Estonia and Latvia was bad enough. Losing Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Moscow and must be stopped from Putin's point of view. lol. Your goalposts keep moving with every response. Either NATO is too close or it isn't. The fact that the Baltics are already in NATO means that Ukraine poses no additional threat. Your argument is silly.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:50
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OddObserver posted:LOL, the point of view you share isn't the Russian point of view, it's the point of view spread by them for Western suckers who want to mumble about Russia's "genuine security interests". It really depends on what you consider genuine. It's preferable to understand what the motivations of your enemy are even if you completely disagree with them.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:53
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daslog posted:It really depends on what you consider genuine. It's preferable to understand what the motivations of your enemy are even if you completely disagree with them. I understand them. They consider Ukrainians their property. That's all there is to it. No one is worried about the 100 tank and 500 broomstick German army attacking them.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:55
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