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fatherboxx)
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daslog posted:Exactly! Losing Estonia and Latvia was bad enough. Losing Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Moscow and must be stopped from Putin's point of view. Yes, because he's projecting bigly. He thinks that because he's basically a 19th century imperialist, everyone else is, too. Morrow posted:Ukraine joining NATO or the EU also has to deal with Russia-friendly states like Hungary and Turkey, either of whom could choose to hold it up indefinitely. Turkey is not that friendly to Russia. I'm sure they'd wring some more deals from NATO to give Ukraine the green light, but only Hungary's current government is ideologically aligned to Russia. Proof for the latter is that they blew up their friendly relationship with fellow "illiberal" country Poland over this, which was monumentally stupid.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:55
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Deteriorata posted:lol. Your goalposts keep moving with every response. Either NATO is too close or it isn't. The fact that the Baltics are already in NATO means that Ukraine poses no additional threat. We are not arguing, we are agreeing.
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Aug 30, 2023 17:56
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daslog posted:I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. As ridiculous as it sounds, they want nice buffer states to so slow down any invasions that could come their way. If Ukraine was a part of NATO, it would trigger an existential crisis for whoever is in change.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:03
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I didn't see this posted in this thread but it appears that Russia is sinking ships beside the Kerch bridge as a makeshift defensive line. https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sinks-line-ships-protect-001937549.html
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Aug 30, 2023 18:05
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Yes, because he's projecting bigly. He thinks that because he's basically a 19th century imperialist, everyone else is, too. Soon Slovakia is going to join the ranks of Russian lapdogs and intra-eu/NATO saboteur, I'm afraid
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Aug 30, 2023 18:15
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The notion that an enormous, nuclear-armed state with a bloated military has "security concerns" is laughable. A persecution complex is not something you take at face value. It is the justification that a bad actor uses when they want to justify their desire to do something unconscionable. The Americans in this thread should be intimately acquainted with this idea.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:20
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daslog posted:I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. As ridiculous as it sounds, they want nice buffer states to so slow down any invasions that could come their way. If Ukraine was a part of NATO, it would trigger an existential crisis for whoever is in change. Russia possess the world's largest nuclear arsenal and a nuclear triad. I would be hard pressed to think of a less likely threat then a conventional army massing in front of and then driving across their border.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:24
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daslog posted:It really depends on what you consider genuine. It's preferable to understand what the motivations of your enemy are even if you completely disagree with them. Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world with a functioning nuclear triad. They are about as scared of the German army with its 13 broomsticks and half a working tank coming for Moscow as the US is of Mexico coming for Washington DC. Not everything fascists dictators say is true. They are dishonest and misrepresent their actual motivations for various reasons and you can't just believe everything you hear. Claims they make have to be critically evaluated.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:25
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lol Russia IS the security concern. Edit: I think Ukraine has some valid security concerns. They should be allowed to join NATO to address their security concerns. mutata fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 18:26
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mustard_tiger posted:I didn't see this posted in this thread but it appears that Russia is sinking ships beside the Kerch bridge as a makeshift defensive line. Heard last week that they had sunk a few ferries alongside it to block the drone boats, personally i think sinking their own actual actual ferries is a brave move... we'll see how that plays out. 
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Aug 30, 2023 18:32
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GABA ghoul posted:Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world with a functioning nuclear triad. They are about as scared of the German army with its 13 broomsticks and half a working tank coming for Moscow as the US is of Mexico coming for Washington DC. The problem isn't Germany itself, as you've correctly identified most of Europe has been largely demilitarized (which explains why they're having such a difficult time sending Ukraine equipment). The reason they can safely demilitarize is because they have a military alliance with the United States. If Germany goes to war with Russia, so does the US and so does every other member of NATO.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:37
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Putin's welcome to cry all the way to behind the Urals if he's afraid of a European invasion. Just look at Russia on a map once.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:38
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daslog posted:Exactly! Losing Estonia and Latvia was bad enough. Losing Ukraine would be a complete disaster for Moscow and must be stopped from Putin's point of view. Helsinki-St. Petersburg is an eight hour drive. Just saying, as long as we're measuring strategic significance in terms of drive time.
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Aug 30, 2023 18:38
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Chalks posted:The breach of the second defensive line at Verbove now visually confirmed https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1696908850819920000 long story short, based on lack of visible heavy equipment, there is a good chance that this is a recon element and either way doesn't represent a full-on breach of the line. that said, ukraine already conducting recon in force on the edge of the town and beyond the physical obstacles isn't exactly good news for russia
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Aug 30, 2023 18:40
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Helsinki-St. Petersburg is an eight hour drive. Just saying, as long as we're measuring strategic significance in terms of drive time. Okay having made that drive I had to check and ??? 
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Aug 30, 2023 18:47
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Helsinki-St. Petersburg is an eight hour drive. Just saying, as long as we're measuring strategic significance in terms of drive time. It's under 200 kilometers from the border, Finnish bicycle jägers could capture Putin's home town in a weekend! 
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Aug 30, 2023 18:56
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daslog posted:I just can't see Russian minds being changed. For Russia the motivation is more than just wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire, it's security driven by past experience. European powers frequently mobilized their troops and invades Russia over the years. That lives in the head's of Russians to this day and they don't have any favorable geography to slow them down. As ridiculous as it sounds, they want nice buffer states to so slow down any invasions that could come their way. If Ukraine was a part of NATO, it would trigger an existential crisis for whoever is in change. Daslog, Peter Zeihan's positions on military/geopolitical matters are not authoritative. He's a good salesman for his takes, but that doesn't mean they're legitimate. He's really good at pointing at maps and fitting the data and history to fit his takes, but that doesn't mean his positions have any special predictive value about the future. Diversify the content that you're letting in past your peepers, and don't let some well-spoken poli-sci bro plant his worldview in your head so easily. Just because an analysis makes "sense" or "sounds right", doesn't mean it's correct. What you're saying is ripped straight out of several of his lectures.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:06
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Mederlock posted:Daslog, Peter Zeihan's positions on military/geopolitical matters are not authoritative. He's a good salesman for his takes, but that doesn't mean they're legitimate. He's really good at pointing at maps and fitting the data and history to fit his takes, but that doesn't mean his positions have any special predictive value about the future. Never heard of him.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:14
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Okay having made that drive I had to check and ??? Fair enough--the first result I got from Google Maps said 7.something hours, but now I get 4.5ish. Doesn't really change the point, though.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:17
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Jon posted:Serbian socialists Laptchevic and Kaclerovic made clear that this was their analysis up to and during the war. Rosa Luxemburg makes a pretty extensive defense of that analysis in her Junius Pamphlet. I would say that you have a pretty broad definition of imperialist rivalry if it encompasses everything from 'We want to be in charge' to 'Your cultural existence is hereby banned under threat of indiscriminate violence'. But under that umbrella yes, quite a lot of morally questionable exercises in killing can be classified as just another imperial adventure. I'm not sure what sort of event would cross over into being an existential war under that set of definitions though.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:42
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Mederlock posted:Daslog, Peter Zeihan's positions on military/geopolitical matters are not authoritative. He's a good salesman for his takes, but that doesn't mean they're legitimate. He's really good at pointing at maps and fitting the data and history to fit his takes, but that doesn't mean his positions have any special predictive value about the future. I don't know Zeihan--had to look him up--but I also know the position shared by daslog has more proponents than this Zeihan guy. In addition to saying "Zeihan and political scientists are wrong, read something else," could you explain why they're wrong? I have read in this thread about how IR realists are all bad and dumb, but no one explains why. It's just taken as a given.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:53
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Judgy Fucker posted:I have read in this thread about how IR realists are all bad and dumb, but no one explains why. It's just taken as a given. They couldn't even predict the end of the Cold War correctly. No one explains it to you for a reason.
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Aug 30, 2023 19:58
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Shes Not Impressed posted:They couldn't even predict the end of the Cold War correctly. No one explains it to you for a reason. And neoliberals have been wrong about liberal democracy spreading all over the world after the end of the Cold War. So what? Realists did predict this war would happen, however. Also, weirdly personal rebuttal.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:05
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Oh no please dont start the IR derail again
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Aug 30, 2023 20:07
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Judgy Fucker posted:I have read in this thread about how IR realists are all bad and dumb, but no one explains why. It's just taken as a given. IIRC, the pages after the initial thrust of the Russian advance of the original thread has a great deal of discussion of Mearsheimer and the Realist school without rehashing it all again here. There was much discussion about Russia’s supposed legitimate grievances for the invasion and his debate circuit appearances to promote his line of thought on the issue.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:07
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Judgy Fucker posted:I don't know Zeihan--had to look him up--but I also know the position shared by daslog has more proponents than this Zeihan guy. The realists were all claiming that Russia wouldn't invade right up until the moment it did, at which point they all switched to saying that there was no way to stop the Russians and that NATO should just let the Ukrainians get genocided, a position which they are still advocating. They are a sick joke.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:07
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fatherboxx posted:Oh no please dont start the IR derail again Sorry, forgot discussing possible reasons for why the war happened was verboten. My apologies.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:08
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Rugz posted:I would say that you have a pretty broad definition of imperialist rivalry if it encompasses everything from 'We want to be in charge' to 'Your cultural existence is hereby banned under threat of indiscriminate violence'. But under that umbrella yes, quite a lot of morally questionable exercises in killing can be classified as just another imperial adventure. I'm not sure what sort of event would cross over into being an existential war under that set of definitions though. The World War discussion is interesting, but I think it has gotten pretty divorced from Ukraine chat so if y'all want to keep it going it's probably better suited for A/T's milhist thread.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:09
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This view that Russian establishment was scared of western/NATO invasion and just wants a buffer state so they invaded Ukraine paints Russian establishment as extremely stupid and out of touch. Because before the invasion, NATO outside of US was demilitarized husk and Trump's re-election away of maybe even losing US support, Russia had deep economical ties with Germany and that kept EU from becoming antagonist against them. They'd have to be braindead not to realize that invading Ukraine would lead to closing ranks in NATO, re-armament of those powers they're supposedly afraid, destruction of EU-Russian relations and potentially NATO expansion in Nordics. And well, all of that happened and now Russia has increased their border with NATO, that is supposedly an existential threat to them, by 1 300 km's. So in effect those who think that some kind of deep seated cultural fear directs Russian foreign policy also think that Russians are stupid as hell because it was clear as day to everyone else that invading Ukraine would be counter productive to those concerns. I don't think they are. Well of course they miscalculated against Ukraine but they knew perfectly well that invasion will lead to break with the west because they aren't THAT stupid. But they don't care, because antagonizing west is in lieu with their imperial project. It is imperialism that informs Russian policy, not fear of the perfidious west.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:11
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Judgy Fucker posted:I don't know Zeihan--had to look him up--but I also know the position shared by daslog has more proponents than this Zeihan guy. The first assumption that they tend to make is that people in power and in government are rational actors that only make rational choices that benefit the state as a whole. The reality is that these structures and decision makers are humans ruled by unique sets of biases, misunderstandings, and other various failings. They're also allergic to counterfactuals that would undermine their given scenarios. I'm not, and the thread isn't, saying that all political scientists are wrong about current geopolitics. There's just a subset of these public analysts that overlap with the financebro style tendencies of being good salesman for their pet takes, who like public attention. If there was a clear and present danger to Russia's security, like say a 100 000+ strong NATO expeditionary army amassing in Poland/the Baltics with saber rattling from the west about bringing Russia into line, then perhaps the "buffer state due to geography" theory would hold more water. Even then, this war has shown the clear effectiveness of heavily developed engineered defensive placements along a long front line. So in this hypothetical situation of Russia being legitimately threatened militarily, they'd be better off developing the Surovikin Line 2.0 across their flatland borders and manning it heavily while preserving their stockpiles of heavy armor, artillery, long range fires, munitions, and manpower. Instead, they're wasting their military capacity on an imperialist invasion at the expense of the capacity to defend their actual borders conventionally, uniting a NATO and EU that was slowly drifting apart, and tanking their own economy. And then they'd still have a full nuclear triad to wreak havoc on the invaders and possibly their country's population centers, if the need arose. This war was not a rational, logical choice made to best suit Russia's geopolitical security. It is the vain attempt at imperialist hegemony over their neighbours for the purpose of enriching the elites of the Russian state, Putin chief amongst them, at the expense of other Eastern European nations. Truly a tale as old as Russia.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:13
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Mederlock posted:The first assumption that they tend to make is that people in power and in government are rational actors that only make rational choices that benefit the state as a whole. The reality is that these structures and decision makers are humans ruled by unique sets of biases, misunderstandings, and other various failings. They're also allergic to counterfactuals that would undermine their given scenarios. Thank you for the earnest reply and not more dismissive bullshit like "this was discussed well over a year ago and thus is settled for All Time" and "no one need explain it to you."
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Aug 30, 2023 20:18
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Mederlock posted:This war was not a rational, logical choice made to best suit Russia's geopolitical security. It is the vain attempt at imperialist hegemony over their neighbours for the purpose of enriching the elites of the Russian state, Putin chief amongst them, at the expense of other Eastern European nations. Truly a tale as old as Russia. Less enriching and more looking good for the textbooks, like his idols, the not-so-great Cathy and Pete, I think. (And on the related note, the Pope is a disgrace).
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Aug 30, 2023 20:23
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When contemplating the rationale for Putin ordering the invasion of Ukraine just remember that Vlad considers the collapse of the USSR to be the greatest political tragedy of the century. Suddenly the head-scratching over NATO encroachment becomes obviously irrelevant.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:34
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Judgy Fucker posted:Thank you for the earnest reply and not more dismissive bullshit like "this was discussed well over a year ago and thus is settled for All Time" and "no one need explain it to you." You're welcome, I do find that snarky know it all attitude that some posters like to have in this sub forum irritating too as it goes against the spirit of what D&D is about. Some folks are a bit jaded as we've had several waves of people from ~other pastures~ Kramer into these threads "just asking questions" disingenuously to stir up drama, so unfortunately there's less tolerance for people who are really asking questions because they genuinely don't know. These guys like Zeihan are genuinely pretty convincing if you don't know much about the current political dynamics in Eastern Europe. These sound bites sound good and seem authoritative when the academic looking guy with slicked back hair points at a map and references the Carpathian mountains and shows old maps of the Russian empire running up against them, but the problem is they leave all the other conflicting aspects out of it that work counter to their hypothesis, such as the fact that it was more that these were the countries that the USSR/Russian Empire had the military capacity to subjugate for their economic gain in the past. The information space is deliberately muddy due to propaganda, deliberate misinformation, angling for local political wins in involved country, etc. So it's hard to get a read on what's real and what's not.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:35
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It's important to remember that in the mind of Putin and his top crew, the operation in Ukraine would have been over in a week. They didn't include NATO closing ranks in their calculations, because Ukraine becoming a Russian vassal state was going to be a done deal before the EU could even get together to figure out what the gently caress just happened. That Russia is still clinging to the invasion a year and a half after it's been such a disaster is something else though.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:43
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Looking back at the offensive, I suspect that what was really slowing down Ukraine was the opposing artillery that they were facing while attacking the the first line. I think their recent gains have been a direct consequence of gaining local artillery superiority. The other forms of Russian defense are simply ineffective without artillery cover. Minefields can be cleared, infantry pinned, and so on. Given that, I'd expect Ukraine to continue their breakthrough at a steady pace. The other defensive lines simply don't matter as much as the artillery situation. It also doesn't seem like something Russia can reverse very easily, short of a game-changer, or Ukraine overextending itself.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:48
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OddObserver posted:LOL, the point of view you share isn't the Russian point of view, it's the point of view spread by them for Western suckers who want to mumble about Russia's "genuine security interests". Seriously. This "geography is destiny" bullshit needs to stop. Most nations manage to coexist without secure geographical frontiers or buffer states, and they don't even sit atop the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
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Aug 30, 2023 20:53
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1696809523778818124?s=20 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1696784537085264230?s=20
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Aug 30, 2023 21:15
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mllaneza posted:Any reactions from them after the anti-corruption sweep earlier this month? Most I think just opt to become students or go to a doctor to get their autism or MDD diagnosed. Corruption isn't needed.
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Aug 30, 2023 21:31
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 03:32 |
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Fun fact about the Pskov airport. It's named after St.* Princess Olga of Kyiv, who, among other things, is famous for her unusual revenge on the tribe of Drevlians. They killed her husband, Prince Igor, when he tried to exact tribute from them, so she devised a Game of Thrones-esque plan of how to get back at them. First she pretended that she wanted to marry the leader of Drevlians, invited him over, and killed him and all best Drevlian warriors who accompanied him. Still pretending that she was over Igor, she convinced Drevlians to pay tribute since she was about to be the wife of their leader, and requested three pigeons and three sparrows from each Drevlian house. She then instructed her servants to put on each bird a piece of cloth with burning sulphur and release them, so that they would return back to Drevlian settlements and burn everything to the ground. Which is what happened according to what little there is about her reign in historical sources. So, in a way, she was behind one of the first suicide drone attacks. *The revenge plot probably took place before her conversion to Christianity, but it's the most iconic part of her biography. Everyone who lived through the 90s in ex-USSR is familiar with the story (or its cartoony version) thanks to this ad that promoted paying taxes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhvTUgNCsT8 Paladinus fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Aug 30, 2023 |
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Aug 30, 2023 21:39
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