(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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e: This is a missile, not a drone https://twitter.com/slaychau_/status/1696984553460781415
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Aug 30, 2023 21:41
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fuctifino posted:e: This is a missile, not a drone https://twitter.com/IntelWalrus/status/1696986592898937129
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Aug 30, 2023 21:54
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If you speak Russian or German you might be interested in this. Маша Борзунова makes videos about Russian propaganda, like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTdq2ZAuaqs Arte is translating them to German: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W-A_ZX0aM0
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Aug 30, 2023 21:55
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:It fits perfectly well. Your original post: Hey Super awesome I'd appreciate an answer to the question that was asked. Because you bring up a topic that kind of got glossed over. Which false lies are Ukrainian soldiers dying from exactly?
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Aug 30, 2023 21:55
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Paladinus posted:Fun fact about the Pskov airport. It's named after St.* Princess Olga of Kyiv, who, among other things, is famous for her unusual revenge on the tribe of Drevlians. They killed her husband, Prince Igor, when he tried to exact tribute from them, so she devised a Game of Thrones-esque plan of how to get back at them. First she pretended that she wanted to marry the leader of Drevlians, invited him over, and killed him and all best Drevlian warriors who accompanied him. Still pretending that she was over Igor, she convinced Drevlians to pay tribute since she was about to be the wife of their leader, and requested three pigeons and three sparrows from each Drevlian house. She then instructed her servants to put on each bird a piece of cloth with burning sulphur and release them, so that they would return back to Drevlian settlements and burn everything to the ground. Which is what happened according to what little there is about her reign in historical sources. So, in a way, she was behind one of the first suicide drone attacks. This is magical. 
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Aug 30, 2023 22:10
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I would absolutely watch that show
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Aug 30, 2023 22:53
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:While I want Ukraine to succeed, this seems like deeply wishful thinking. Bear in mind that every estimate of shells fired given is pure guesswork. You can google it and see estimates from 5,000 (US) to 40,000 (Some Ukrainian Major) shells fired per day by Russia, so you can pretty pick and choose whatever narrative you want. However, best estimates show the Ukrainians winning counterbattery fights by heavy margins in recent fighting. IMO it's pretty safe to say that while Russia still clearly has an advantage in artillery, the extent of that advantage has attrited massively since the start of the war. I'd also note that noone in the NATO has really thought about - forget training for - breaching the insanely deep and dense minefields Russia is using, much less contemplated doing it while being shot at by helicopters and drones. And I assure you Ukraine is familiar with the concept of smoke shells and sequenced assaults.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:17
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Russia probably still has the clear advantage in "number of artillery shells being launched" but I'm not going to imagine the condition of the barrels or their general accuracy lol
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Aug 30, 2023 23:19
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:It really is, Napoleon was the last one and that was over two hundred years ago. Japan has been more of a problem to Russia than Europe has been, since then. Here is a (partial?) list of western countries that have invaded Russia / the USSR since Napoleon. France, the UK, Greece, the USA, Serbia, Poland, Germany (including Austria), Hungary, Romania and Italy.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:38
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Weka posted:Here is a (partial?) list of western countries that have invaded Russia / the USSR since Napoleon. You're not by chance counting the purchase of Alaska as an "invasion" of Russia by the USA? Otherwise not sure which occasion you are referring to for the USA invading Russia.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:47
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Orthanc6 posted:You're not by chance counting the purchase of Alaska as an "invasion" of Russia by the USA? Otherwise not sure which occasion you are referring to for the USA invading Russia. Probably referring to the intervention around Archangel during the civil war. It was planned before the RCW got into high gear due to the Bolshevik alignment with the Germans. Basically once ww1 stopped though it was a matter of months before those guys were gone.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:49
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Orthanc6 posted:You're not by chance counting the purchase of Alaska as an "invasion" of Russia by the USA? Otherwise not sure which occasion you are referring to for the USA invading Russia. There was a really weird and half assed US expedition during WW1 that was like 'we don't want the Bolsheviks to win the civil war, but we don't want to stick our dicks in all the way either' so they kind of hosed around for a while, fought a little bit, then left.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:51
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Panzeh posted:Probably referring to the intervention around Archangel during the civil war. It was planned before the RCW got into high gear due to the Bolshevik alignment with the Germans. Thanks, consider me educated. Definitely wasn't trying to defend "Invaded Iraq on a whim" USA of not being imperialistic, just thought an invasion of Russia would have stood out more in history. Definitely counts even if it was of little consequence.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:54
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:There was a really weird and half assed US expedition during WW1 that was like 'we don't want the Bolsheviks to win the civil war, but we don't want to stick our dicks in all the way either' so they kind of hosed around for a while, fought a little bit, then left. They sent 11000 troops and took several towns.
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Aug 30, 2023 23:59
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Panzeh posted:Probably referring to the intervention around Archangel during the civil war. It was planned before the RCW got into high gear due to the Bolshevik alignment with the Germans. The Bolsheviks surrendered a lot of land to the Germans including a big chunk of Ukraine. IDK how you get that they were "aligned". The war with Germany literally broke the Russian empire, it was one of its primary causes of death. The Bolsheviks were the only power in the world calling WW1 a dumb shitfest and they surrendered almost immediately when they took over.
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Aug 31, 2023 00:02
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But, to be more precise, Russia has historically been a horrific neighbor and there's a reason eastern european countries that border it rarely end up friendly to it.Cpt_Obvious posted:The Bolsheviks surrendered a lot of land to the Germans including a big chunk of Ukraine. IDK how you get that they were "aligned". The war with Germany literally broke the Russian empire, it was one of its primary causes of death. The Bolsheviks were the only power in the world calling WW1 a dumb shitfest and they surrendered almost immediately when they took over. Between Brest-Litovsk and the armistice in ww1 among the other powers, Lenin constantly offered economic concessions to the Germans, who had very little respect for his rule in general, especially as the German parliamentary opposition soured on him upon learning about the way Lenin consolidated power once he was out of WW1. In fact, the Germans had put together a force to go to Petrograd and put him down the same way they put down the Ukranian Rada. The British were moving in to join the White forces, and their explanation for external consumption was Lenin's collaboration with the Central Powers. Once the Central Powers were gone, even Lloyd George, who very much favored heavy support for Kolchak struggled to keep momentum up for this and british support for the Whites withered away, though they did retain support for the newly-independent Eastern European countries, like the Baltics and Poland. Panzeh fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Aug 31, 2023 |
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Aug 31, 2023 00:02
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Panzeh posted:Between Brest-Litovsk and the armistice in ww1 among the other powers, Lenin constantly offered economic concessions to the Germans, who had very little respect for his rule in general, especially as the German parliamentary opposition soured on him upon learning about the way Lenin consolidated power once he was out of WW1. Yeah, because Germany marched all the way to Kiev and the Russian military had basically collapsed. Those concessions were forced at gunpoint. I'm not "aligned" with someone who mugs me because I give them my wallet. Panzeh posted:In fact, the Germans had put together a force to go to Petrograd and put him down the same way they put down the Ukranian Rada. The British were moving in to join the White forces, and their explanation for external consumption was Lenin's collaboration with the Central Powers. Right, so the entire narrative of "central power alignment" was a lie.
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Aug 31, 2023 00:20
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Got to remember that WW1 was simply much more important to all the allied powers intervening in the Russian Civil War, except Japan. Both for initially trying to deny things to Germany and later on in general war exhaustion after armistice day. The one exception is Japan, who were still trying to prop up their totally not a puppet colony in Siberia years after everyone else had grudgingly accepted the Bolsheviks. After all, by 1921, the British are signing the initial Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement, with further treaties being ratified in 1924. Also in 1921, the US signs the Russian Famine Relief Act of 1921, which results in tens of millions of dollars going towards feeding millions of starving Russians.
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Aug 31, 2023 00:22
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There hasn't been much in the last couple pressers, but have this closer for old times' sake:quote:Anyone else in the room? Dan. OK, last question to Dan and then I'll wrap it up. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3509665/sabrina-singh-deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-holds-a-press-briefing/
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Aug 31, 2023 00:48
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The problem isn't Germany itself, as you've correctly identified most of Europe has been largely demilitarized (which explains why they're having such a difficult time sending Ukraine equipment). This was last page but to be clear this scenario is impossible. Article 5 only happens if Russia attacks Germany, not the way around. If Poland decided to directly intervene into Ukraine to fight the Russians they would be on their own, with any aid and support going through the same channels as it does for Ukraine.
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Aug 31, 2023 01:06
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Deteriorata posted:lol. Your goalposts keep moving with every response. Either NATO is too close or it isn't. The fact that the Baltics are already in NATO means that Ukraine poses no additional threat. this may be the most I've ever seen someone move a goalpost in a D&D thread tbh
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Aug 31, 2023 01:15
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Mederlock posted:The first assumption that they tend to make is that people in power and in government are rational actors that only make rational choices that benefit the state as a whole. The reality is that these structures and decision makers are humans ruled by unique sets of biases, misunderstandings, and other various failings. They're also allergic to counterfactuals that would undermine their given scenarios. I don't tend to agree with either of them, because while I think NATO expansion is a factor, it's not the primary one. I place a lot of emphasis on systems and the internal contradictions of systems, so the internal system in Russia plays the primary role, but not because it's authoritarian and "Putin is a dictator," or because it's similar to the Soviet Union (which it isn't), which then interacts with external factors, which play a secondary role. The Russian system constructed by Putin is a unique and complex thing, and I don't believe people can understand it through a worldview that holds that, as a rule, rational motivations are in control either. It doesn't seem to be behaving rationally, as far I can see. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Aug 31, 2023 |
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Aug 31, 2023 01:26
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The argument could be made that the Baltics are relatively exposed, they may be close to Russia's heartland so to speak; but they are also bordered by the Russian enclave of Kalinagrad to the Southwest, and Russia aligned Belarus to the South; as long as Ukraine is non-aligned or Russia-aligned this is a manageable geostrategic circumstance for the same kinds of people who think Russian IRBMs in Cuba or American missiles in Turkey are too close for comfort but the missiles that take 30 minutes instead of 5 minutes were fine. It's a similar kind of logic where one situation can be tolerable because it can be "managed" while the other situation is intolerable because it represents a rapid collapse of the strategic situation. Now suddenly Belarus and by extension the Kalinagrad enclave are being "flanked" by pro-NATO forces. Now not only is St. Petersburg threatened but now so is Belgorod, Volgograd, Rostov. Moscow can now be attacked from *three* directions and the Russian states ability to concentrate their forces to defend critical regions is much more precarious. Russia's military reforms of the 2010's and similar illustrate this, Russia had a rapid reaction force of around 80,000 people. Enough to presumably rapidly neutralize the Baltics; basically before they had essentially only one front with NATO to really worry about; Ukraine joining the NATO camp increases this to two which massively degrades the capability of the Russian military to do something about it. If NATO was in a conflict with Russia in the North along a narrower front despite the ways Russia has currently massively mismanaged the war, we can see signs how this strategy could work, a narrower front with their advantages in artillery would clearly have been a significant challenge for NATO to overcome, at least in a similar kind of limited conflict where NATO is worried about nuclear escalation and decides to keep the fighting in the Baltics instead of escalating by landing in the South or flanking further north via the Sea. This is a lot of speculation but I don't think its entirely nonsense to see the ways Ukraine further drifting away from Russia represents a further deterioration in the Russian state's geostrategic situation. (Not that this would ever have been a remotely a legitimate concern if Russia was legit a good neighbour interested in friendly cooperation and peaceful development and is only a concern for Russia because they specifically have gone out of their way to treat the smaller countries around them as pawns in geopolitical and geostrategic "great power great game" rivalries; to paraphrase, play geostrategy games win stupid geostrategy encirclement prizes)
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Aug 31, 2023 01:34
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Zwabu posted:Likewise while the victory of the Union in the U.S. Civil War might seem obvious in retrospect based on population and industrial and economic might, there may well have been scenarios where the Confederacy might have strung together enough victories to oust Lincoln and exceed the collective will of the North to preserve the Union. To relate this topic to the thread writ large, there were also scenarios where the Confederacy might have secured materiel support particularly from the British and in the long term, recognition of sovereignty by the Crown. Extremely unlikely, but there was a chance, however remote.
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Aug 31, 2023 02:03
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BIG HEADLINE posted:To relate this topic to the thread writ large, there were also scenarios where the Confederacy might have secured materiel support particularly from the British and in the long term, recognition of sovereignty by the Crown. Extremely unlikely, but there was a chance, however remote. One often reported factor was European observers (Mostly Britain, France and Germany) saw a few ACW battle fields and wrote reports that can be summarized as "Jesus gently caress modern warfare is loving brutal  "Which convinced most of the major powers to just leave the Americans to figure it out for themselves and not pick a side
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Aug 31, 2023 02:21
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I'd also note that noone in the NATO has really thought about - forget training for - breaching the insanely deep and dense minefields Russia is using, much less contemplated doing it while being shot at by helicopters and drones. And I assure you Ukraine is familiar with the concept of smoke shells and sequenced assaults. One of the weird retrospective ironies of the Cold War is that both sides developed extensive battle plans and doctrines based on the assumption that the OTHER guy was going to kick things off and try to drive straight through to Moscow/Paris, yet neither side seriously contemplated any actual offensive plans to take on the opposing alliance because holy poo poo that would be insane.
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Aug 31, 2023 02:26
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Tomn posted:One of the weird retrospective ironies of the Cold War is that both sides developed extensive battle plans and doctrines based on the assumption that the OTHER guy was going to kick things off and try to drive straight through to Moscow/Paris, yet neither side seriously contemplated any actual offensive plans to take on the opposing alliance because holy poo poo that would be insane. Depends on what you mean by "contemplated", Soviet doctrine absolutely emphasized "a good defence requires a
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Aug 31, 2023 02:45
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Here is an interesting one. EU imports of Russian LNG have jumped by 40% since the invasion of Ukraine https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/eu-imports-russian-lng-have-jumped-40-invasion-ukraine/ EU countries are estimated to have spent nearly €5.3bn buying over half of all Russia’s LNG during the first seven months of 2023, with Spain and Belgium the second and third largest buyers worldwide Countries in the European Union are buying significantly more Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) now than they did before the invasion of Ukraine, with Spain and Belgium only just beaten by China as top buyers, according to Global Witness analysis of Kpler data. Between January and July 2023, EU countries bought 22 million cubic meters of LNG, compared with 15 million cubic meters during the same period in 2021 – a jump of 40%. Using Russian LNG prices estimated by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air based on spot and monthly trade values, Global Witness projects the EU’s 2023 purchases to be worth €5.29 billion. This is a much sharper rise than the global average increase in Russian LNG imports, which stands at 6%. EU countries now buy the majority of Russia’s supply, propping up one of the Kremlin’s most important sources of revenue. Between January and July 2023, the EU bought 52% of Russia’s exports, compared to 49% in 2022 and 39% in 2021. In March 2023, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged member states and EU companies to stop buying Russian LNG. And Spanish Energy Minister Teresa Ribera asked Spanish buyers not to sign new Russian LNG contracts, calling the situation ‘absurd’. Recent research by Global Witness has revealed that Shell and TotalEnergies have continued to trade Russian LNG following the invasion. Global Witness analysis in July 2023 showed Total is the biggest non-Russian buyer of liquified gas from the country, buying nearly 4.2 million cubic meters of Russia’s LNG since the start of the year. And earlier Global Witness analysis revealed that between March and December 2022, Shell bought and sold 12 percent of all of Russia’s exports, over 7.5 million cubic meters of LNG. Spain is now the second largest buyer of Russian LNG worldwide, with Belgium close behind. During the first seven months of 2023, Spain took 18% of Russia’s total sales, while Belgium took 17%. China bought 20%. During the same period in 2021, Spain ranked 5th and Belgium 7th. Jonathan Noronha-Gant, senior fossil fuel campaigner at Global Witness said: “Europe’s fossil gas-based energy system is a climate disaster and security risk, funding warmongering regimes and fuelling deadly extreme weather. That national capitals are buying more LNG from Russia than before the war shows that we are simply not moving fast enough to replace gas with renewables. Governments need to wake up to the reality of our dependence on fossil gas and come up with an emergency plan for a full phase-out – starting with a ban on the trade of the Russian gas which is lining Putin’s pockets. “Buying Russian gas has the same impact as buying Russian oil. Both fund the war in Ukraine, and every euro means more bloodshed. While European countries decry the war, they ‘re putting money into Putin’s pockets. These countries should align their actions with their words by banning the trade of Russian LNG that is fueling both the war and the climate crisis”
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Aug 31, 2023 06:31
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Dante80 posted:Here is an interesting one. That's not great but it's important to remember that Russian LNG exports are a drop in the bucket compared to their former pipeline exports. They simply don't have the means to convert enough of their pipeline gas to LNG to offset lost revenue from losing the European pipeline market.
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Aug 31, 2023 06:39
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Morrow posted:Ukraine joining NATO or the EU also has to deal with Russia-friendly states like Hungary and Turkey, either of whom could choose to hold it up indefinitely. Turkey isn't Russia friendly. Erdogan likes to keep his options open.
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Aug 31, 2023 07:32
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Isn't one problem with getting supplies to Ukraine that nobody planned for "old fashioned" land wars that require literally millions of artillery shells, so nobody (including the US) had enough on hand to give to Ukraine?
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Aug 31, 2023 07:34
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Weka posted:Here is a (partial?) list of western countries that have invaded Russia / the USSR since Napoleon. On one hand you forgot Finland, but at least Poland it western country now  No Slovakia, probably you could add Czechoslovakia too. It's like that map showing all countries invaded by UK/England, where a lot of entries were really deep into "well, technically if you go by x dictionary definition".
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Aug 31, 2023 07:53
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Weka posted:Here is a (partial?) list of western countries that have invaded Russia / the USSR since Napoleon. Vladimir Putin traumatized by the thought of living through another Greek invasion. Gotta stress eat another country to calm down
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Aug 31, 2023 08:03
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Weka posted:Here is a (partial?) list of western countries that have invaded Russia / the USSR since Napoleon. is this geographically western countries, or "western aligned" countries? if the latter you might as well include japan. in either case if you're going to include the last three you should include slovakia, and arguably czechia struggling to remember how the great serbian menace managed to earn a place haunting the collective russian unconscious, something under tito? or when they were some ottoman dutchy or something?
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Aug 31, 2023 08:32
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Dante80 posted:
It would definitely be helpful to the Ukrainians if Europe to stop funding the Russian war effort. They may have to sacrifice a bit to do so, but it's in their own best interest.
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Aug 31, 2023 11:02
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I'm just a little suspicious of that article. It feels like it's mentioning some numbers with no context... going to look and see "ok, more LNG, yes, but what about total NG" and without looking, I am guessing the total amount of gas is down, and the price is back down....
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Aug 31, 2023 11:27
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~80% of russias NG/LNG exports to europe were via pipeline, yeah. that remains very heavily down from its peak in 2021 couple months old but a decent overview of russian energy exports: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/europes-not-buying-impact-lost-gas-markets-gazprom-and-russia Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:39 on Aug 31, 2023 |
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Aug 31, 2023 11:36
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The point is that the EU shouldn't be importing any Russian gas at all. €5 billion is a lot more than zero.
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Aug 31, 2023 12:59
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Grey Area posted:The point is that the EU shouldn't be importing any Russian gas at all. €5 billion is a lot more than zero. It also illustrates the point that Europe (just like the USA) will support Ukraine as long as it's convenient for them to do so. Actual sacrifice? Not going to happen.
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Aug 31, 2023 13:05
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daslog posted:It also illustrates the point that Europe (just like the USA) will support Ukraine as long as it's convenient for them to do so. Actual sacrifice? Not going to happen. Yeah, Ukraine should probably just surrender.
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Aug 31, 2023 13:20
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