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fatherboxx)
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EasilyConfused posted:I can't parse this. I think they mean hopefully there will never be another big war for us to learn lessons from. Hell of a page snipe.
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Sep 7, 2023 23:36
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don’t think we are getting through to each other. Maybe I can summarise what I’m saying in a way that’s less controversial. in this hypothetical the obvious answer is 10,000 super drones in an interception role. then it just comes down to who has the technical and logistical edge, same as today
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Sep 7, 2023 23:44
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don’t think we are getting through to each other. Maybe I can summarise what I’m saying in a way that’s less controversial. I can imagine anything, but that doesn't mean it's realistic or even possible. What weapons would this dinner-roll sized drone have? And would this cloud be somehow less vulnerable to AA guns?
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Sep 7, 2023 23:46
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Nobody that can send 10,000 drones in a mass swarm at you is going to do that over using conventional air power and long range precision munitions. A massive drone swarm like that would be very ineffective and impossible to control in any meaningful capacity and a million dollars in drones wouldn't buy you the same equivalent destructive power as two Tomahawk cruise missiles would if they are remotely similar to the dinner-roll dimensions in the post. The scenario described in that post is one step removed from literal Skynet style autonomous target seeking miniaturized hunter-killer drones and kind of fantastical The anti-drone answer is, for the foreseeable future until laser weaponry is progressed enough to take over an anti-drone capability (similar to how they are used already for anti-ship missile defense in task forces) are going to be variations of cheap laser guided rocket munitions like have already been sent to Ukraine: https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2023/04/us-sending-experimental-anti-drone-weapons-ukraine/384801/
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Sep 7, 2023 23:50
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don’t think we are getting through to each other. Maybe I can summarise what I’m saying in a way that’s less controversial.. The problem here is that you’re either talking about current capabilities or future capabilities. If you’re talking about current capabilities others have already pointed out the problems with using massed drone bomber swarms. If you’re talking about future capabilities you’re basically in the realm of sci-fi where you can hand wave the drones to be as cheap and advanced as you like, without considering that the same might apply to drone countermeasures - maybe we can miniaturize tiny little bullet-sized missiles cheap enough to fire en masse to down all the drones in the world, why not? And in any event it would be irrelevant to the Ukrainian War as it currently is where the Ukrainians clearly don’t think drone swarms are an appropriate tactic against Russian warships, and whatever they do in the future is so far forward to be pure guesswork.
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Sep 7, 2023 23:51
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People are working on this and while it’s hard, the real work is better than the imagination of napkin math and manhack fanart and the like. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/us-army-selects-epirus-leonidas-for-high-power-microwave-initiative/?amp=1 If Russia deploys 10,000 unmanned dinner rolls to Ukraine in two years, other than to feed its troops, color me surprised.
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Sep 7, 2023 23:54
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the fact people don't seem to understand the difference between ukraine drones dropping hand grenades and the exponential costs and questionable physics of strapping 2000 lb warheads onto $300 best buy special drones that do 10 G maneuvers like neo is very indicative of how we keep getting into boondoggles with upper engineering management lol
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Sep 7, 2023 23:57
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"What if ... we made the drones bulletproof?" *shocked silence, then the board unanimously votes to increase my annual bonus by another $4 billion*
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Sep 8, 2023 00:11
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ethanol posted:the fact people don't seem to understand the difference between ukraine drones dropping hand grenades and the exponential costs and questionable physics of strapping 2000 lb warheads onto $300 best buy special drones that do 10 G maneuvers like neo is very indicative of how we keep getting into boondoggles with upper engineering management lol The anti-personnel missile is what's being described with these grenade drones. That they can loiter and be cost-effective is all that sets them apart from the US's tactic in the early 2000's of solving every terrorist they spotted with a couple million worth of ordinance. A 2000lb warhead drone is either a regular cruise missile or a very fat Shahed drone, so we already know the utility and cost-effectiveness of those. I don't think the grenade drone will ever be deployed in swarms like what we see with drone shows. Too many in the same spot just makes it easier to intercept more of them with either flak or some large scale EW method. But we might still see a large amount deployed at the same time and then going to attack individual infantry at random times. That takes advantage of their loitering time, small detection size and keeps infantry paranoid. Though launching that many drones would also make a pretty big spike in outgoing signal, so there's another reason to launch only 1 or a few at a time.
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Sep 8, 2023 00:17
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Is there so little worthy of discussion going on right now in the Ukraine? Been away for a bit and I feel like I just read 5 pages of a General Dynamics wish list.
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Sep 8, 2023 00:22
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daslog posted:Is there so little worthy of discussion going on right now in the Ukraine? Been away for a bit and I feel like I just read 5 pages of a General Dynamics wish list. Quite a bit is going on actually! Crossposting my earlier post for some discussion topics: ---------------------------------------- Insider posted:Russia's infamous 'dragon's teeth' defenses are a joke and were easily overcome, says Ukrainian ex-commander https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-dragons-teeth-defenses-a-joke-says-ex-ukraine-commander-2023-9?utm_source=reddit.com quote:"To begin with the amusing, it includes the so-called dragon's teeth. I think everyone has already seen photos or videos [of those]. These are white concrete pyramids that, in the Russian imagination, were supposed to stop our tanks, somehow." --------------------------------------------- Ukrainska Pravda posted:US intelligence believes Ukraine can break through Russia's remaining defense lines by end of year https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/7/7418820/ quote:The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency believes that the recent successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suggest a "realistic possibility" of a breakthrough in the rest of the Russian defence lines by the end of the year, although it would be extremely difficult. ---------------------------------------------- Ukrainska Pravda posted:Car containing two FSB officers who tortured Ukrainians is blown up in Oleshky https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/7/7418878/ quote:Details: One of the FSB employees was killed instantly by the explosion, and the other is in intensive care in a serious condition. Three Russian soldiers who were escorting the car were injured. -------------------------------------------------- Jens Stoltenberg posted:"The reality is that Ukrainians are exceeding expectations again and again" https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699824195436151300?s=20 quote:You cannot, sitting in Brussels, tell Ukrainians how to fight. They risk their lives, and we need to support and praise them for their bravery. ---------------------------------------------------- ISW posted:Ukrainian forces advance as Russian commentators complain of low supplies https://kyivindependent.com/isw-ukrainian-forces-advance-as-russian-commentators-complain-of-low-supplies/ quote:Ukrainian troops continue to advance in parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Sept. 6 report. --------------------------------------------------- Wall Street Journal posted:In Crimea, pro-Ukraine feelings prompt a Russian crackdown https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos9 quote:Every few days, Russian occupation authorities on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula parade newly caught “traitors” in front of the cameras. --------------------------------------------- Jens Stoltenberg posted:Russian army now second strongest in Ukraine https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3758290-russian-army-now-second-strongest-in-ukraine-stoltenberg.html quote:"Ukrainian forces are gaining ground, breaking through Russian fortifications and liberating their land, proving that the Russian army, which used to be the second strongest in the world, has now become the second strongest in Ukraine." ---------------------------------------------------- The counteroffensive progresses apace
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Sep 8, 2023 00:25
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quote:"To begin with the amusing, it includes the so-called dragon's teeth. I think everyone has already seen photos or videos [of those]. These are white concrete pyramids that, in the Russian imagination, were supposed to stop our tanks, somehow." there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for
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Sep 8, 2023 00:37
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i say swears online posted:there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for He's probably just trolling, assuming Russians are also reading the press release, or it turns out they're hollow and get crushed by tanks instead of hindering them?
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Sep 8, 2023 00:39
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Raenir Salazar posted:He's probably just trolling, assuming Russians are also reading the press release, or it turns out they're hollow and get crushed by tanks instead of hindering them? it's more likely there was an inadequate amount of mines and counter-fire in the kill zones, or even more stupidly the russians could have spaced them just a lil too far apart which would in fact negate their entire purpose
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Sep 8, 2023 00:40
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HonorableTB posted:Quite a bit is going on actually! Crossposting my earlier post for some discussion topics: This is great, thank you! Ukraine doing lots of stuff in Russia should make some people Nervous. I wonder if Putin's security will slip up when he's traveling.
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Sep 8, 2023 00:49
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i say swears online posted:there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for In the original language it is more clear that he is being sarcastic there. That is a direct reference to the quality of the dragon teeth and how they were used improperly (not even anchored into the ground!!! AND THEY WERE HOLLOW!!) to the point where it became a "what are these even here for and why bother?" thing
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Sep 8, 2023 00:50
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don’t think we are getting through to each other. Maybe I can summarise what I’m saying in a way that’s less controversial. Do you have any idea the acceleration required to displace a drone out of the path of a 20mm tungsten sabot moving at km/s after it's fired? The impulse alone would wreck the drone. And that's not even taking into account any sort of computing latency.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:01
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i say swears online posted:there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for Indeed, there is absolutely no way. He was very clearly making a joke.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:10
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The Artificial Kid posted:I don’t think we are getting through to each other. Maybe I can summarise what I’m saying in a way that’s less controversial. A CIWS can also observe and react and if your argument is that drones can be programed to maneuver to avoid the rounds the exact same argument can be made about the target software the CIWS uses, and given that it's already set up to track poo poo VERY quickly I would say the drone is very very disadvantaged in that equation. Things flying in clouds that dense is dumb, poo poo can be fused to explode in the air and you are basically guaranteed to knock out more drones then the round is worth. Very few countries are likely to have to production capabilities of pulling that poo poo off and the command/networking/whatever capabilites to actually make good use of it. You are making some very wild claims about drone capabilities and it would nice if you had some things to back up your speculation rather than just handwaving a lot of very complicated poo poo away. Saying "We dunno what the future will hold" is not a convincing argument because as others are pointing out its equally likely that more advanced drone countermeasures will be implemented. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Sep 8, 2023 |
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Sep 8, 2023 01:36
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Wait, someone thinks that drones can dodge bullets? That's what people have been arguing about?
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Sep 8, 2023 01:37
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i say swears online posted:there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for A little background on the energy pyramids he mentions, because I reckon it's not a universal reference. One of the most recognisable living journalists and interviewers in Ukraine is Dmytro Gordon.  Here you can see him unwittingly cosplaying Agent 47. He's interviewed every major politician in Ukraine, including presidents, and outside of Ukraine - people of all stripes from Khodorkovsky to Lukashenko to Strelkov. That last one, he promised, was to get him admit to war crimes and send a thumb drive with his confession to Brussels. He's also the owner of one of the most popular bilingual (just like him) news websites in Ukraine, gordonua.com. He is known for his non-confrontational interviewing style in contrast with his bombastic public image and very distinct sense of humour. He actually started his career during the Perestroika, when he managed to score a huge in-depth interview with the TV faith healer and scam artist Anatoly Kashpirovsky. That fateful encounter either convinced him that Kashpirovsky and the endless torrent of seers and healers that came in his wake were the real deal, or he just saw a great business opportunity, but in any case, later, in the 90s, when he had his own newspaper, he started to actively promote all sorts of charlatans and help them with organising events all over ex-USSR. But for the people who didn't want to go anywhere to see a healer, there was a perfect device to get all the healing they needed at home.  'The Golden Pyramid YU-SHINSE defeats all illnesses. Don't miss your chance!' He was in all promo materials for the thing, did TV spots for them, mentioned it in unrelated appearances on TV, and claimed the pyramid healed his terminally ill friend. He was really all in on the thing, and it was everywhere. But then the 90s ended, and he decided he was going to be a serious political expert/interviewer instead, so his connection to the pyramid business was almost completely forgotten. Until Gordon decided to seriously get into politics not just as an observer, but as a political actor. In 2019 he threw his lot with then barely keeping afloat party Strength and Honour lead by the ex-head of security service Ihor Smeshko, whom he supported during the presidential election and later his party for the general election. Because Gordon was suddenly under much more scrutiny than in the past 20 years, some journalists started asking questions about the pyramids. Incredibly, he still continued to insist that YU-SHINSE was a real patented medical device approved by WHO. Strength and Honour never made it to the Rada, but a new generation of Ukrainians were exposed to the miracle child of geometry and medicine. Gordon, though, quickly recovered from this. He is still doing immensely popular interviews on his youtube channel and is a frequent guest on TV.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:38
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Moon Slayer posted:Wait, someone thinks that drones can dodge bullets? That's what people have been arguing about? They were arguing that faced with a CIWS, a system which is designed to track and shoot down missiles traveling at speeds like Mach 3, a drone would simply see the muzzle flash and move to the side.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:40
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Telsa Cola posted:They were arguing that faced with a CIWS, a system which is designed to track and shoot down missiles traveling at speeds like Mach 3, a drone would simply see the muzzle flash and move to the side. I mean, that's what I'd do but I'm built different. I feel like 'Musk interfered in a war' should be bigger news. Drone talk is really interesting but Elon thinking Hearst was a bit too subtle in his involvement and cutting out the middleman is a real development. I do have some questions about Drones, though, that I would love to ask knowledgable people. What's the appropriate thread?
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Sep 8, 2023 01:43
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i say swears online posted:there is absolutely no way a battalion officer doesn't know what dragon's teeth are used for He’s alluding to how they were not built into the ground. They are seen easily pushed aside in several videos. A dragon tooth is supposed to be 1-2 meters in the groune, and many of these are not, for some reason. A heavy bulldozer can move them. In addition you are supposed to mine and defend them which also seems to be lacking.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:43
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Snowman_McK posted:I feel like 'Musk interfered in a war' should be bigger news. Drone talk is really interesting but Elon thinking Hearst was a bit too subtle in his involvement and cutting out the middleman is a real development. It honestly feels like the story is being quasi-buried
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Sep 8, 2023 01:44
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Snowman_McK posted:I feel like 'Musk interfered in a war' should be bigger news. Drone talk is really interesting but Elon thinking Hearst was a bit too subtle in his involvement and cutting out the middleman is a real development. Well, he interfered twice. First, he interfered by providing starlink capability to Ukraine, some of which was donated by the private company without any contractual obligation. Second, the allegations that he was having the starlink capability selectively turned off. This is, in part, why the US now pays starlink for a service in support of Ukraine. If it's not just a gift, there are contractual teeth to keep the service on without interruptions at the whim of the company.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:57
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:my understanding is that ukraine and the us have both paid some amount to spacex for starlink terminals and service. it sounds like purchasing is being done on a real ad hoc per terminal basis with spacex providing some kind of nebulous discount. not sure what, if any, government purchasing or service agreements are in place There are terminals/service in use from very many different sources. The first ones (iirc like 1500) were bought by USAID and shipped nominally only for relief work. SpaceX rounded the USAID shipment up to iirc 5000 with a direct donation, and then also said that starlinks operating in Ukraine don't need a paid contract. Then a lot of civilians started ordering starlinks in europe and shipping those to ukraine, numbers here are at least in the high tens of thousands, around this time they started being used for military communications a lot. Then SpaceX restricted areas where they could be used, and after some discussion, Pentagon directly purchased some from SpaceX and shipped them to Ukraine with separate (more expensive) contracts that let them operate them anywhere. I think at some point SpaceX also went back on the "starlinks operating in ukraine don't need a contract" thing, but I'm not sure.
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Sep 8, 2023 01:59
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Kchama posted:I can imagine anything, but that doesn't mean it's realistic or even possible. What weapons would this dinner-roll sized drone have? And would this cloud be somehow less vulnerable to AA guns? In my imagination sitting here right now as opposed to spending hundreds of engineer-years on better alternatives? The dinner rolls would have small shaped charges/bullets (like the slaughterbots sci-fi short) or high temperature incendiaries depending on whether they were going after people or vehicles/structures. ethanol posted:the fact people don't seem to understand the difference between ukraine drones dropping hand grenades and the exponential costs and questionable physics of strapping 2000 lb warheads onto $300 best buy special drones that do 10 G maneuvers like neo is very indicative of how we keep getting into boondoggles with upper engineering management lol Think about the current generation of FPV attack drones. Now imagine instead of half a dozen of them relying on human operators there’s a swarm of 10,000 of them spread over a wide area and able to autonomously target and attack whatever class of visual object they’ve been set for. No radio signals to jam. Telsa Cola posted:A CIWS can also observe and react and if your argument is that drones can be programed to maneuver to avoid the rounds the exact same argument can be made about the target software the CIWS uses, and given that it's already set up to track poo poo VERY quickly I would say the drone is very very disadvantaged in that equation. Truly autonomous drones pose a new and unique challenge, and the solutions so far put forward are only good for relatively limited numbers with limited capabilities. The question isn’t whether they can be taken down, it’s how they can be taken down cost effectively (or if better drones are the only answer to drones).
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Sep 8, 2023 02:00
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The Artificial Kid posted:
i was being comedic about 2000 lb, alhtough it's a common size for aircraft dummy bombs.. but anyways because jumping up to say 20 lb warheads (a hellfire missile warhead) would even be difficult for those systems. they handle around 5 lb and they can't do much more than float up above people unawares and drop the grenade. the big boom drones going off at airports and what not are slow and being used against unawares targets. that's not a good example to try to use either. now you're talking about smaller dinner roll size drones with imaginary propulsion and warheads surely you see how silly this is, meanwhile saying they're going to dodge CIWS bullets. so what does each of your 10,000 hover drones cost in your ideal world where it can just over-swarm any target? ethanol fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Sep 8, 2023 |
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Sep 8, 2023 02:21
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The Artificial Kid posted:Nobody is denying that if you blanket an area with bullets the drone is going down. The point is you can’t snipe a hundred drones per second by predicting their paths and leading them with a single bullet, because they can add random bubble to their trajectory, or even (potentially) watch for muzzle flash 200 times per second and add a random dodge manoeuvre whenever that happens. Ok, yeah, you don't know what you're talking about.
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Sep 8, 2023 02:23
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proximity-fused anti air explosive rounds are what, as old as World War II?
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Sep 8, 2023 02:41
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The Artificial Kid posted:Now imagine instead of half a dozen of them relying on human operators there’s a swarm of 10,000 of them spread over a wide area and able to autonomously target and attack whatever class of visual object they’ve been set for. No radio signals to jam. While you're imagining that Future Tech scenario, also imagine that HPM technology is finished with testing and fielded operationally and also and remind yourself that HPM is not jamming and has capability even in the absence of signals to jam. It doesn't make sense to imagine in your head that the drone tech has advanced (in miniaturization, power, targeting, autonomous capability, manufacturing efficiencies, range, and more) but no other tech has advanced beyond that of today.
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Sep 8, 2023 03:12
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Dude, give it a rest. If you really want to talk about your future drone warfare fan fiction, take it to the Cold War/AirPower thread instead of the Ukraine current events thread. I’m sure the aerospace nerds there will be more than happy to explain what everyone else here is explaining in much greater detail. I do want you to consider this though: what is the effective range of a CIWS platform? How fast does a CIWS bullet travel? Given this, what is the reaction time available to a target at the edge of that effective range before the bullet gets there? Finally, what is the acceleration rate of the best drone you can find, ie its ability to change directions quickly?
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Sep 8, 2023 03:13
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HonorableTB posted:
I wonder if this assumes whether or not the Russians build new lines of defense as Ukrainians continue their push which they have been doing. https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1697459450439745858 That is the issue with this type of slow grind. The Russians are given time to build out secondary and tertiary lines of defense as time goes on. It no longer becomes a question of breaching positions since there will always be more but rather finding a way to make the manpower equation, both in terms of those currently in uniform as well as those not yet in uniform, work for Ukraine despite the numbers being slanted against them. I have posted before about the upcoming manpower crunch the Ukrainians are approaching. Those who want to serve are already in service leaving those less enthusiastic, and older Ukrainians to be drafted. It appears that draftees for the AFU are not getting substantially more or better training than Russian mobiks with a recent article posted showing they get 4 weeks in some cases being shipped to the front (in Kharkov Oblast in that particular article). This is where the pessimism from even the highest ranks of the US military comes from. The math just doesn't add up in the long term and without a collapse from the Russian army.
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Sep 8, 2023 03:43
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Paladinus posted:A little background on the energy pyramids he mentions, because I reckon it's not a universal reference. I want to appreciate you for this post because nothing gives me more joy than several paragraphs of knowledge about an obscure in-joke.
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Sep 8, 2023 04:21
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I saw the future of warfare in documentary film Matrix Revolutions this is only a couple of years away now. Also we can't use EMP or Neo would die.
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Sep 8, 2023 04:24
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evilweasel posted:proximity-fused anti air explosive rounds are what, as old as World War II? A quick googling says they were a concept by 1939, prototype firing in mid-1940, they worked reliably by 1942, and were effective against V1 rocket salvos with a speed of ~400mph themselves. So 80 years ago. Apparently they had problems with coastal gun airburst shells periodically detonating on seagulls.
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Sep 8, 2023 04:38
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MikeC posted:That is the issue with this type of slow grind. The Russians are given time to build out secondary and tertiary lines of defense as time goes on. It no longer becomes a question of breaching positions since there will always be more but rather finding a way to make the manpower equation, both in terms of those currently in uniform as well as those not yet in uniform, work for Ukraine despite the numbers being slanted against them. Armies always dig fortifications where they're standing, so they'll keep doing that if they get pushed back. However, when they're pushed back, both sides take losses, so the next line is more weakly held (and the attacker slowed). Eventually either the attacker is exhausted or the defender collapses, so it doesn't really go on forever.
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Sep 8, 2023 04:42
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Chronojam posted:So 80 years ago. Apparently they had problems with coastal gun airburst shells periodically detonating on seagulls. That is a feature, not a bug!
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Sep 8, 2023 04:45
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Presumably the problem was that the shells didn't detonate on all seagulls.
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Sep 8, 2023 05:01
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