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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Has a virus or back door ever been "contracted" by radio? I wonder if you could spoof a radio transmitter and highjack a drone that way.

There have been remote attacks demonstrated by researchers on WiFi firmware of cell phones, at least.

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saratoga
Mar 5, 2001
This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

TheRat posted:

Can you jam a satellite connection (without attacking the satellite itself)?

Yes, but jamming thousands of them at once is very hard, especially when they move very fast and can instantaneously route data around disruptions. These low earth orbit constellations are very difficult to disrupt, which is why they're so militarily significant.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






the holy poopacy posted:

Sure, just get line of sight to one of the ends of the connection and spit enough random noise at it that it can't tell signal from noise. Getting line of sight to the satellite is easy, but you need a beefy transmitter to be able to overpower whatever other transmitters are talking to it. Getting line of sight to the ground receiver is trickier, but if you can get there then it's pretty simple to jam.

The other way around:




Not strictly relevant but I always thought it was cool that they were able to eavesdrop on microwave links using satellites.

saratoga
Mar 5, 2001
This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Has a virus or back door ever been "contracted" by radio? I wonder if you could spoof a radio transmitter and highjack a drone that way.

There's lots of videos of both sides hijacking drones and then forcing them to land and be captured.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

the holy poopacy posted:

Sure, just get line of sight to one of the ends of the connection and spit enough random noise at it that it can't tell signal from noise. Getting line of sight to the satellite is easy, but you need a beefy transmitter to be able to overpower whatever other transmitters are talking to it. Getting line of sight to the ground receiver is trickier, but if you can get there then it's pretty simple to jam.

A satellite connection is a radio connection, it's just you're connecting to a satellite instead of another ground-based station.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Sorry to bring us back to drones but w/r/t drone swarms I found an article regarding the difficulties inherent to the current state of them. The article is U.S. focused and talks about the difficulty in manufacturing and controlling them. The tone is also pretty "rah-rah free market" but I think shows the troubles armies currently have fielding a drone swarm. I think the author, Andrew Merrick, is a Yale economist.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/for-replicator-to-work-the-pentagon-needs-to-directly-help-with-production/?amp=1

It's a longer article but here's a bit I felt relevant:

quote:


Foundationally, that means that small UAVs that can be produced in staggering numbers — the kind of capability so helpful in Ukraine, and which would be the most readily available for Replicator’s efforts — are, minimally, going to need to be brought to the fight by a larger platform with greater range. More likely, drones relevant to US operations in the Indo-Pacific regardless of domain will have to be larger than those used in Europe, and those systems are currently nowhere close to the kind of production levels Hicks hinted at.

This is the biggest impact of the oft-discussed tyranny of geography on any system produced by the Replicator initiative. Arguments over the sensors, datalinks and payloads of these low-cost attritable autonomous systems are sure to rage. If these systems are used to strike defended, mobile and/or hardened targets, their size and complexity may grow yet further. On first principles, the need for expanded range compared to their cousins on the Black Sea and in Ukrainian skies translates to larger, military specific systems that are more expensive, take more time to build, and come with larger, more complex supply chains.

As Hicks pointed out in her speech, all of these technological challenges are surmountable through the combination of the America’s vibrant, free market system with the Joint Force’s unmatched ability to “imagine, create, and master the future character of warfare.” However, production capacity for these military specific classes of systems has yet to materialize. They have unique economics, making it difficult to justify the business case for a new factory to build thousands of units in two years without high profit margins, access to exceptionally inexpensive capital, and/or potential for long-term use.

Ultimately, the United States lacks the production capacity required to turn these dreams into reality, and it’s hard to see what company would be willing to invest heavily to stand up production. Which leads the inescapable conclusion that the US government is going to have to invest directly to make the Replicator concept viable.

The dirty, uncomfortable and often unacknowledged fact is that today’s defense industry is built on the back of government investments from the 1940s and 1950s. In many ways, the United States has been coasting on 80-year-old foundational investments in heavy industry and production facilities. As an example, the Department spent over $2 billion adjusted for inflation as part of the Heavy Press Program during the 1950s. This forgotten industrial investment has been the lynchpin of the American aerospace industry from then until today. The F-35 rolls out of Air Force Plant 4, a government owned, contractor operated plant first constructed to build the B-24 Liberator bomber during World War II. Abrams tanks are remanufactured at another government owned, contractor operated facility that can similarly trace its heritage back to World War II. Wherever one looks across the defense industrial base, one finds that the arsenal of democracy, built with direct government funding, is not only aging but shrinking as well.

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Way back in April 2022 Starlink reported that Russias were able to jam their satellites until they put in sw fix to prevent it:
https://www.pcmag.com/news/pentagon-impressed-by-starlinks-fast-signal-jamming-workaround-in-ukraine

My personal guess is that because of the way LEO satellites work, the terminals are constantly frequency hopping to connect to the next satellite, so the software has built in capability. I would imagine wideband frequency jamming is still infeasible due to the power required, so Starlink implemented some software frequency hopping mechanism to defeat the Russian jamming.

I'm sure the Russians are still trying though, and I'm sure there are successes in limited scope, I would not discount Russian EW or intelligence. Viasat, the old Ukrainian satellite provider got hacked in the opening days of the war:
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/10/1051973/russia-hack-viasat-satellite-ukraine-invasion/

So if Starlink keeps being used, there will be more attacks aimed at it in more novel ways. You could say the call to Elon was just one facet of warfare.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

saratoga posted:

There's lots of videos of both sides hijacking drones and then forcing them to land and be captured.

So the Russians have stolen the secrets of the Atom AND the mastery of cardboard!?

saratoga
Mar 5, 2001
This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

WarpedLichen posted:


My personal guess is that because of the way LEO satellites work, the terminals are constantly frequency hopping to connect to the next satellite, so the software has built in capability. I would imagine wideband frequency jamming is still infeasible due to the power required, so Starlink implemented some software frequency hopping mechanism to defeat the Russian jamming.

The newer models also use laser channels between satellites which are not practical to jam, so best you can do is try and jam the individual ground to satellite channels, which is a game of whack-a-mole when you have that many moving so fast. You might occasionally disrupt a connection, but probably only for a few seconds at time as the ground unit jumps to an unjammed channel/satellite.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Ok, but what about ...

Neophyte
Apr 23, 2006

perennially
Taco Defender
there's also the issue that these jammers by design radiate a lot of energy, and anti-radiation missiles can track and home in on that - so you'd better hope you're not in range of a HARM when you flip that switch

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

i am a moron posted:

I might be taking for granted how exactly Ukraine is fighting the war. I’m not sure what’s okay to say/not say about the capabilities of it either, but how are radios not the comms lynchpin of like… any military? Using starlink (or any commercial ISP) runs counter to so many things I might be taking for granted. I don’t see how that could possibly be more secure than what I was taught to use. I really figured this is just Elon marketing himself again, ‘ooo look at me I can influence geopolitical stuff like wars’.

The brief version is that throughout much of 2022 Russia's EW capabilities were effective enough to either jam Ukrainian military radios or triangulate their location, and thus bring kinetic effects on them. Much of Ukraine's command and control is app-based. Yes, you're running it over the Internet backbone, but encryption done right actually works. A podcast recently had a senior Ukrainian intelligence leader on, and he mentioned that a lot of the cyberattacks from Russia have been focused on getting access to mobile devices running those apps.

Ukraine's military radios were not particularly modern prior to 2014, and my understanding from the very limited sources we have on the topic don't seem to indicate they've received thousands of SINCGARSor anything.

mllaneza posted:

Starlink has to be very high on the priority list for Russian Electronic Warfare operators. The blackouts could very easily be the result of jamming.

e. per effort post above Musk really is geofencing. What a loving tool.

They're almost certainly not. Starlink is actually very hard to jam unless you're sitting between it and a satellite. I'm sure Russia is working to do so--and may have more success than the OSINT community hears about--but all of the reporting I've seen has been consistent that Starlink is everywhere Ukraine can put it.

Also Elon is a loving tool, indeed. He woke up on third base and thought he hit a triple, and a serendipitous investment convinced him he was smart about everything. He's a smart guy, but suffers from assuming because he's smart about some things, he must be smart about all things.

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Has a virus or back door ever been "contracted" by radio? I wonder if you could spoof a radio transmitter and highjack a drone that way.

Not via a computer virus in the way you might be thinking, but yes: some of the anti-drone guns being used by both sides do exactly that. They'll do things like tell the drone "land immediately" or "return home".

the holy poopacy posted:

Sure, just get line of sight to one of the ends of the connection and spit enough random noise at it that it can't tell signal from noise. Getting line of sight to the satellite is easy, but you need a beefy transmitter to be able to overpower whatever other transmitters are talking to it. Getting line of sight to the ground receiver is trickier, but if you can get there then it's pretty simple to jam.

I'm sure Russia could jam a Starlink satellite. Probably several. But they don't seem to be able to jam enough of them. It's a big constellation.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

I'm sure Russia could jam a Starlink satellite. Probably several. But they don't seem to be able to jam enough of them. It's a big constellation.

And there's a lot of issues even if they do try to jam Starlink. Apart from it being difficult, and as you say probably ineffective due to the size of the constellation, it's also not a part of Ukraine's infrastructure. It's US infrastructure, and yes it is privately owned but the US has a long history of protecting its industry. Jamming Starlink opens up a very large new can of worms for US messing directly with Russian businesses and comms. So it would be a big risk with little chance of success.

With the size of the constellation, and the rate that SpaceX can put up more satellites, the biggest risk to Ukraine losing Starlink is as we've seen already; Elon being an idiot.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
I don't think Russia has any qualms about messing with Starlink if they can. I mean they interfered with a presidential election pretty blatantly.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Popete posted:

I don't think Russia has any qualms about messing with Starlink if they can. I mean they interfered with a presidential election pretty blatantly.

yea they also been assassinating people all over Europe, also sabotaging ammo depots. so they might give elon a nice little polonium breakfast or do some sabotage on his property - Musk claims that the ambassador warned about nuclear war but we can't be sure of what the threats really were about...

FrenzyTheKillbot
Jan 31, 2008

Good Hustle

Ynglaur posted:

Also Elon is a loving tool, indeed. He woke up on third base and thought he hit a triple, and a serendipitous investment convinced him he was smart about everything. He's a smart guy, but suffers from assuming because he's smart about some things, he must be smart about all things.

Elon Musk seems to be the same sort of person as Steve Jobs, in that he is talented at knowing what ideas are worth backing and how to market them. But his recent comments about precision on the cybertruck shows he fails at very basic engineering stuff and has never been involved in any of the actual "work". And as you say, these people tend to overvalue their expertise in areas that they really shouldn't. See again Steve Jobs trying to cure his cancer with wheatgrass smoothies.

ummel posted:

Big Post

This might be a can of worms, but I can see how a company would be upset if they donated "product" for humanitarian purposes, and it ends up being used for direct offensive action. If Toyota sent a bunch of pickup trucks to be used to deliver aid supplies, and then they see them on the front line with machine guns bolted to the back, they'd be miffed. But of course, the right thing to do is not secretly sabotage their military efforts. And that concern should completely go away once the government starts paying you for the product to be used that way.

There's another couple things that really strike me about this story. First, that a Russian ambassador can so easily get Musk on the phone and threaten nuclear war to get him to do things. What kind of stupid world do we live in where this happens, and then he calls up his biographer to vent about it? And the second is how different Musk's version of the story is in his recent admission. He frames it as some spur of the moment request that he denied, when the story from his own biography is that he cut back service, mid mission, at the request of the Russians. I'd ask why he'd bother with such a dumb lie, but I guess it's further proof of how much he's lost touch with objective reality.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

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FrenzyTheKillbot posted:

Elon Musk seems to be the same sort of person as Steve Jobs, in that he is talented at knowing what ideas are worth backing and how to market them. But his recent comments about precision on the cybertruck shows he fails at very basic engineering stuff and has never been involved in any of the actual "work". And as you say, these people tend to overvalue their expertise in areas that they really shouldn't. See again Steve Jobs trying to cure his cancer with wheatgrass smoothies.

This might be a can of worms, but I can see how a company would be upset if they donated "product" for humanitarian purposes, and it ends up being used for direct offensive action. If Toyota sent a bunch of pickup trucks to be used to deliver aid supplies, and then they see them on the front line with machine guns bolted to the back, they'd be miffed. But of course, the right thing to do is not secretly sabotage their military efforts. And that concern should completely go away once the government starts paying you for the product to be used that way.

There's another couple things that really strike me about this story. First, that a Russian ambassador can so easily get Musk on the phone and threaten nuclear war to get him to do things. What kind of stupid world do we live in where this happens, and then he calls up his biographer to vent about it? And the second is how different Musk's version of the story is in his recent admission. He frames it as some spur of the moment request that he denied, when the story from his own biography is that he cut back service, mid mission, at the request of the Russians. I'd ask why he'd bother with such a dumb lie, but I guess it's further proof of how much he's lost touch with objective reality.

To the first part: LOL, the man bought Twitter for about 30% more than it was worth and then has further tanked it. The dude was rightly fired from Paypal when he tried to name that "X" 20 years ago, when "X" anything was actually popular. He was rich from apartheid era resource extraction industries, used that money to become even more rich by lucking into the right silicon valley investment, and has been coasting off that since. He's a venture capital vulture with no actual talent.

As to the second part, his story makes no sense because he's a self-aggrandizing liar talking about conversations with a cadre of liars (the Russian government). Don't twist yourself into knots trying to understand.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

OctaMurk posted:

Lol now I see why the russian government loves to just throw the nuclear threats around all the time, sometimes it works!

I’m gonna nuke Elon if he doesn’t give me his lunch money

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

OctaMurk posted:

Lol now I see why the russian government loves to just throw the nuclear threats around all the time, sometimes it works!

There is no lie so stupid someone won't believe it

jarlywarly
Aug 31, 2018
What if Putin threatened to nuke Elon's balls?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Elon is an idiot. The idea that he is intelligent is only marketing. He is sympathetic to fascists and that makes him a manipulable useful idiot.

This is the type of person that thinks the joke “Rococo’s Basilisk” is deep and funny.

Edit and Tesla’s logistics in the supply chain suck

elhondo
Sep 20, 2012
Grimey Drawer
It reads as though Musk is more afraid of mean tweets than nuclear war.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



jarlywarly posted:

What if Putin threatened to nuke Elon's balls?

Impossible, unless Elon and Willo are one and the same.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Elon is a piece of poo poo

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

Icon Of Sin posted:

Impossible, unless Elon and Willo are one and the same.

Has anyone ever seen Elon and Willo in the same room together?

Mederlock
Jun 23, 2012

You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it
Grimey Drawer

Ynglaur posted:


Also Elon is a loving tool, indeed. He woke up on third base and thought he hit a triple, and a serendipitous investment convinced him he was smart about everything. He's a smart guy, but suffers from assuming because he's smart about some things, he must be smart about all things.

:vince: God dayum this sums him up perfectly. I don't viscerally despise him the way some people itt do, like he genuinely is fairly smart and is capable of attracting even smarter people to him(via money he made being lucky on a bet that you can trace to Daddy's apartheid mines), and is obsessive enough to push through fallacy-induced industry dogma (which works for him and against him, see Boring Company vs SpaceX, Model 3 vs Solar Roof tiles, etc). But he's got an ego as flimsy as a sheet of paper, a deficiency of general empathy, and is so easily gripped and manipulated by his existential anxieties (see: the push to get to mars, panicking over nuclear saber rattling, etc.) that I'll never bring myself to care for him either.

Legally, I don't think him toying with the network the way he did before contracts were signed and assurances were made are going to land him in any hot water. Morally it was reprehensible in that it aided the furtherance of a genocidal invasion of a country, but I can also understand feeling nervous after getting off the phone with someone from the Russian government directly threatening the use of nuclear weapons if your infrastructure is used to do something. That just makes him a coward, but I can understand it. I will say though, it's probably safe to say his actions (providing access to starlink, especially to humanitarian efforts) have done far more good than ill, and even the Ukrainians themselves are saying that about Starlink, so :shrug:

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Elon's just the next generation of Trump, the callow sociopath most aligned with the current shallow and broadly appealing memetic imagery of success. A solipsistic turd wrapped in white paneling and reactionary futurism instead of gold leaf and laissez faire.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
Rumors hitting Twitter that ATACMS are coming, though it may be a few months. I guess that means PrSM are being delivered, about when they were supposed to be.

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




Ynglaur posted:

Rumors hitting Twitter that ATACMS are coming, though it may be a few months. I guess that means PrSM are being delivered, about when they were supposed to be.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722

A 300km missile with a cluster munitions warhead is bad news for any air base in range.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
To date, there's apparently an agreement that US-provided munitions not hit Russia itself. That said, airbases in Crimea could be in a bad way, as could the Kerch bridge.

Sorry Cinci. I think Crimea-chat is CE.

Cocaine Bear
Nov 4, 2011

ACAB

The thing about Elon is that I miss Cinci.

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry
He was a good mod who melted down and had bad taste in food.

Mischievous Mink
May 29, 2012

Glad the racist defender mod is gone.

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?
I appreciate fatherboxx’s thankless service

Totally Reasonable
Jan 8, 2008

aaag mirrors

Ynglaur posted:

To date, there's apparently an agreement that US-provided munitions not hit Russia itself. That said, airbases in Crimea could be in a bad way, as could the Kerch bridge.

Is ATACMS really a threat to the bridge? I could see it really doing a number on the SHORAD around there, and thus permitting massed cruise missile fires or something. But could the 500lb penetrating warhead version knock out a bridge that has had much larger bombs blown up on and under it?

Peepers
Mar 11, 2005

Well, I'm a ghost. I scare people. It's all very important, I assure you.


mllaneza posted:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722

A 300km missile with a cluster munitions warhead is bad news for any air base in range.

How do these stack up against Russian air defense?

Groggy nard
Aug 6, 2013

How does into botes?

Totally Reasonable posted:

Is ATACMS really a threat to the bridge? I could see it really doing a number on the SHORAD around there, and thus permitting massed cruise missile fires or something. But could the 500lb penetrating warhead version knock out a bridge that has had much larger bombs blown up on and under it?

Dunno but we are likely to find out!

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Totally Reasonable posted:

Is ATACMS really a threat to the bridge? I could see it really doing a number on the SHORAD around there, and thus permitting massed cruise missile fires or something. But could the 500lb penetrating warhead version knock out a bridge that has had much larger bombs blown up on and under it?

I don't know, but that's a fair point.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Ynglaur posted:

I don't know, but that's a fair point.

A totally reasonable one even.

:dadjoke:

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Mederlock
Jun 23, 2012

You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it
Grimey Drawer

Totally Reasonable posted:

Is ATACMS really a threat to the bridge? I could see it really doing a number on the SHORAD around there, and thus permitting massed cruise missile fires or something. But could the 500lb penetrating warhead version knock out a bridge that has had much larger bombs blown up on and under it?

Hard to say, but the difference in the destructive power of a charge going off inside a concrete structure after it's penetrated some, rather than blowing up 35-50 meters away, can't be understated.

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