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zoux posted:Semafor with an obituary for the Sanders left Personally, I think there's a few dubious things about this article. First of all, no deep dive is complete without a look at the sources. The author of this piece, David Weigel, is a right-leaning libertarian. While he's not particularly Trumpy, his field of expertise in political reporting has always been the right wing, not the left wing. Aside from that, his main sources of quotes appear to be Cenk Uygur and a Third Way executive, neither of whom I really trust to give a clear and unbiased view of what's going on with the left. Second, when I look closely, I see a distinct lack of evidence that the left is actually doing any worse than it's been here. The article is heavy on coverage of leftist infighting (which has always been a thing, even during the height of the leftist resurgence) and light on examples of the left actually doing any worse than it has been up till now. When it comes down to it, the only real examples of a "leftist slump" he has are the defeat of Kyle Reugenberg and the layoffs at Justice Dems. You might be asking why I'm not including the fact that "for the first time since 2016, no Democratic incumbent in Congress has a credible primary challenger on the left". There's two reasons: 1) It took me about thirty seconds of Googling to discover that this claim is outright false. It didn't take much searching to find several progressives lining up credible-seeming primary challenges in 2024. 2) It's deceptively restrictive. By focusing entirely on progressive challenges against Democrats, it excludes something far more important: progressive challenges against Republicans. And I also found several of those during my brief fact-checking tour.
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Sep 9, 2023 01:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I love the 4% of men who would not be comfortable eating food with another male friend 4% is around where people picking stupid/funny answers on polls usually hovers. It's the Lizardman's Constant, from the percentage that reported yes in a 2013 PPP polling question of "Do you believe that shape-shifting reptilian people control our world by taking on human form and gaining political power to manipulate our societies, or not?" (which is a great name despite the guy who coined it being a shifty finance bro) Only 1% of women reporting they're uncomfortable eating with a female friend is kind of the weirder response.
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Sep 9, 2023 02:23
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Foxfire_ posted:4% is around where people picking stupid/funny answers on polls usually hovers. They’re all those women from ten years ago who were photographed alone laughing with salad.
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Sep 9, 2023 02:32
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Yeah I think I have to come down on "vaguely left democrats are largely mollified" side of things. This also means that I actually have to give some credence to the "nooooooo, we can't have a centrist doing good policy, it'll absolutely gut enthusiasm for radical change" argument I've pooh-poohed in the past. Discendo Vox posted:Only if you care more about being radical than good policy outcomes. Otherwise you’re describing the healthy functioning of representative democracy. I think it's a little disingenuous to say that the left doesn't want good policy if it comes from centrists. The major problem is that the "good policy" done by centrists is very often not good enough.
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Sep 9, 2023 02:38
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FlamingLiberal posted:Mayo Pete, Kamala Pete will prove a quality candidate and a top 15 president
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Sep 9, 2023 04:55
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worked for mckinsey, auto disqualified from presidency imho
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Sep 9, 2023 05:06
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Skex posted:I suspect that there are plenty of voters who can relate to having a crazy ex. Any cross-tabs on which is the bigger voter pool, 'has a crazy ex' vs. 'is the crazy ex'? Surely this can be gamed.
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Sep 9, 2023 05:18
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Rappaport posted:Any cross-tabs on which is the bigger voter pool, 'has a crazy ex' vs. 'is the crazy ex'? Surely this can be gamed. You need to ask “have you ever had a crazy ex?” and then “have all your exes been crazy?”
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Sep 9, 2023 05:21
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I asked this in the Trump legal troubles thread (wrong thread): Is there a theory as to why most polls now show a Trump lead or toss-up? This seems incredibly unlikely to me given how badly Republicans have been doing, their underperformance in 2022, and them losing elections since Trump's election.
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Sep 9, 2023 05:37
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Trump voters remain very committed Democrats vacillate about Biden because they think he's too old Also the blob hates Biden and the media is perfectly happy to give him the hillary emails treatment
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Sep 9, 2023 05:43
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small butter posted:I asked this in the Trump legal troubles thread (wrong thread): Because ratings. Portraying it as a neck and neck horserace gets more attention, so the polls that reflect that chosen narrative are the ones that get chosen to be displayed.
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Sep 9, 2023 05:50
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Main Paineframe posted:First of all, no deep dive is complete without a look at the sources. The author of this piece, David Weigel, is a right-leaning libertarian. While he's not particularly Trumpy, his field of expertise in political reporting has always been the right wing, not the left wing. He got dumped over a series of posts on journolist (home to most of the wonky lib media set of mid-late aughts), mocking Rush, the Tea Party, James O'Keefe, Newt, Glenn Beck, Drudge, Pat Buchanan and other names from a time capsule. Hilariously, the Post replaced him with Jennifer Rubin so the Post readers on the right went from quality blogging with info they hated by a guy who loathed them to abject trash that made them feel good from a writer who couldn't have been a bigger Romney fan if she'd carved a backwards B in her face. Mostly agree with your post! I just think we should be accurate about famous goons and he's your bog standard Nader -> Pat Ryan -> Paul -> Obama -> Huntsman -> Gary Johnson voter (per wikipedia).
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Sep 9, 2023 05:53
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small butter posted:I asked this in the Trump legal troubles thread (wrong thread): It's 14 months until the election and there isn't a serious Democratic primary, lots of people who don't really follow politics don't know that it'll be a rematch of 2020.
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Sep 9, 2023 05:53
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Uglycat posted:Pete will prove a quality candidate and a top 15 president A top 15 US President guarantee? I hate Pete, and I don't think he's that big a piece of poo poo.
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Sep 9, 2023 07:08
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the_steve posted:Because ratings. This cannot be understated and influences political coverage to a huge degree. It's why there's so much polling, The context of the poll or the reliability is certainly never discussed. They're always portrayed as absolute truth too, as uncovering deeply held beliefs instead of many going "I'll say what I think favors my side" or "I'll say whatever I think the pollster wants to hear." If that shapeshifting lizard man question was on a current poll and on cable news, imagine the discussion of what it meant... "People are saying whatever" would not be brought up, it'd be "Are 4% of the population, over 14 million people, believers in a reptoid conspiracy?"
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Sep 9, 2023 08:11
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NGL, it was kinda crushing to find out the "shapeshifting reptilain conspiracy" was anti-semetic in orign. Let me have some wacky beliefs that *aren't* just Judhass in a werid hat! Or racisim in a werid hat. I'm looking at you, "Bigfoot is actually Cain."
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Sep 9, 2023 12:59
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small butter posted:I asked this in the Trump legal troubles thread (wrong thread): Pollsters can't really poll people under the age of 45 because they don't have landlines and almost never pick up calls from random numbers, is my guess.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:00
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Foxfire_ posted:4% is around where people picking stupid/funny answers on polls usually hovers. I personally believe that the Lizardman constant is biased towards men, and women are much less likely to dick around with stupid poll answers. I have nothing empirical to back this up but it feels right
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Sep 9, 2023 13:09
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Twincityhacker posted:NGL, it was kinda crushing to find out the "shapeshifting reptilain conspiracy" was anti-semetic in orign. Let me have some wacky beliefs that *aren't* just Judhass in a werid hat! It's kind of amazing how almost every conspiracy theory ultimately boils down to "And that's why Jews are bad". There's got to be some insane weirdo in a basement with hundreds of pounds of string who isn't an anti-semite.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:19
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Any idea that catches on can be subsumed into the greater "The Jewish people did this"
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Sep 9, 2023 13:47
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Conspiracy theories are just the most fun form of ideology without being hampered by consistency or plausibility. Inevitable that in the West it always ends up at the most exciting and purest form of ideology available, "the Jews are behind it."Zizek posted:Anti-Semitism is not just one among ideologies; it is ideology as such, kat’exohen. It embodies the zero-level (or the pure form) of ideology, providing its elementary coordinates: social antagonism (“class struggle”) is mystified/displaced so that its cause is projected onto the external intruder. I'm sure in Japan the conspiracy theories all go back to Koreans and that generally outside the West people have different "weirdo neighbors" to point fingers at. In early 20th century politics in Evanston, IL, it was common to say everything wrong in the city was a conspiracy by the people of Chicago to weaken Evanston and ultimately absorb it into Chicago entirely. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 13:50 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 13:48
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Havin lovely memories of literal Klan neighbours in school being like “you’re a jew, you know” Bro I do not know, I like latkes and Purim and Sukkot are fun. I’m still waiting on my Soros check and induction into the grand conspiracy.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:55
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Meatball posted:Pollsters can't really poll people under the age of 45 because they don't have landlines and almost never pick up calls from random numbers, is my guess. Is this seriously not adjusted for? Why landlines? I was polled once on my cell phone.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:57
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small butter posted:I asked this in the Trump legal troubles thread (wrong thread): The media needs eyeballs to make money. They will highlight anything that makes the election more of a horse race than a foregone conclusion, because the former drives more viewership. So if you're MAGA pollster Tony Fabrizio, you can poo poo out anything that serves that purpose and you stand a good chance of getting publicity across the media landscape.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:00
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It's a weird feeling knowing I'm in the minority now, as a middle age white guy, who prefers to be surrounded by naked women than naked men.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:03
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small butter posted:Is this seriously not adjusted for? Why landlines? I was polled once on my cell phone. It is adjusted for, but the more you have to manually adjust poll numbers to align sample sizes with actual population weights, the more their margin of errors increases. There is no amount of statistical magic that you can work to overcome the fact that nobody answers their loving phone anymore. All polls on all subjects are just inherently less accurate now than they were ten to twenty years.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:09
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Freakazoid_ posted:It's a weird feeling knowing I'm in the minority now, as a middle age white guy, who prefers to be surrounded by naked women than naked men. I mean I'd probably be more comfortable surrounded by naked dudes, since that's something I experience regularly in locker rooms. Which one I'd prefer is entirely different.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:11
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duodenum posted:The media needs eyeballs to make money. They will highlight anything that makes the election more of a horse race than a foregone conclusion, because the former drives more viewership. So if you're MAGA pollster Tony Fabrizio, you can poo poo out anything that serves that purpose and you stand a good chance of getting publicity across the media landscape. Not to take away from the media's need for ratings, but let's not undersell the average American poll taker's need for attention. We've nearly fetishized the undecided voter to their own category on Porn Hub. From coast to coast we'll insist that we absolutely haven't made up our mind, and we're just carefully weighing our options between two guys we've been talking about for decades. This time I might actually vote for the other guy, insists the voter who has voted straight ticket one party since Crystal Pepsi was on the shelves.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:19
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duodenum posted:The media needs eyeballs to make money. They will highlight anything that makes the election more of a horse race than a foregone conclusion, because the former drives more viewership. So if you're MAGA pollster Tony Fabrizio, you can poo poo out anything that serves that purpose and you stand a good chance of getting publicity across the media landscape. Can you elaborate? 538 has a bunch of polls that I'm assuming get listed when they become available, horse race or not.
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Sep 9, 2023 14:27
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Failed Imagineer posted:I mean I'd probably be more comfortable surrounded by naked dudes, since that's something I experience regularly in locker rooms. yeah I probably should have said comfortable too, but in my mind they're mostly the same meaning. why would one prefer something uncomfortable?
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Sep 9, 2023 14:57
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Conspiracy theories are just the most fun form of ideology without being hampered by consistency or plausibility. Inevitable that in the West it always ends up at the most exciting and purest form of ideology available, "the Jews are behind it." Is this saying that a conspiracy theory can start as something not "the Jews are behind it" but in the western world it inevitably comes back to that or that all conspiracy theories are based on antisemitic tropes in the west? I guess why is anti-semetism the purest as you say, or "kat'exohen" (par-excellence?), zero-level or pure form as Zizek says of ideology? Can a person be involved heavily in something like searching for bigfoot or something and reject antisemitism? Edit: Sorry those were just all questions but I dont know much about it. Where is that Zizek quote from? I'd be interested in trying to read some of it.
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Sep 9, 2023 15:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The IRS announced a new enforcement and reform plan for tax collecting starting with the 2023 tax year (after April 15th, 2024). Gee, I wonder how FOX News and talk radio will report on this?
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Sep 9, 2023 15:21
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Gyges posted:It's kind of amazing how almost every conspiracy theory ultimately boils down to "And that's why Jews are bad". There's got to be some insane weirdo in a basement with hundreds of pounds of string who isn't an anti-semite. Someone clip that scene from the Venture Bros movie of Debbie explaining her crazy board. "Yeah, it started as kind of this checklist. And then I had all these pictures. Then I got some...*clears throat*...yarn. You never set out to make an 'I'm crazy' wall, but you know! They happen! It's an organic thing!"
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Sep 9, 2023 15:37
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Old Kentucky Shark posted:It is adjusted for, but the more you have to manually adjust poll numbers to align sample sizes with actual population weights, the more their margin of errors increases. There is no amount of statistical magic that you can work to overcome the fact that nobody answers their loving phone anymore. So if that's true, do we have any other reliable way to tell how popular a politician or position on an issue really is, or how an election will probably go? Do we just go off of things like vibes? Given how the last midterms went way better for Dems than expected, what if the entire narrative of Biden's unpopularity is just complete BS because all the polls are just hosed?
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Sep 9, 2023 17:17
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Meatball posted:Pollsters can't really poll people under the age of 45 because they don't have landlines and almost never pick up calls from random numbers, is my guess. I do 
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Sep 9, 2023 17:46
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I do Please give the most insane poll answers you can think of, for the thinkpieces
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Sep 9, 2023 18:05
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Twincityhacker posted:NGL, it was kinda crushing to find out the "shapeshifting reptilain conspiracy" was anti-semetic in orign. Same. I just saw “They Live” in theaters as part of an anniversary showing, and it’s a great movie. I hope the people that made it really intended for it to be taken at the surface level of “no, really, they’re just aliens, capitalism is the monster here”
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Sep 9, 2023 18:19
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I'm in a competitive state senate district, and I've gotten polled several times recently on my cell phone, including twice in one day. Sadly I'm pretty sure they've all been internal campaign polls verging on push polls because they all ask about that senate race and then go on to test out a bunch of different ways to try to claim the Republican incumbent is actually very close to her district, super moderate, and not anti abortion at all. 
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Sep 9, 2023 18:19
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Queering Wheel posted:So if that's true, do we have any other reliable way to tell how popular a politician or position on an issue really is, or how an election will probably go? Do we just go off of things like vibes? It's still polls. The 2022 polls did okay if you remove partisan pollsters (like Trafalgar publishing 10000 polls with a vibes based methodology to get the founder time on Fox News and Data For Progress manipulating polls to help the founder make money gambling on election results). The margin of error is just bigger than people think, and there's only so much polls can tell you 14 months before the election. There's also special elections and the off-year elections in November.
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Sep 9, 2023 19:37
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Quorum posted:I'm in a competitive state senate district, and I've gotten polled several times recently on my cell phone, including twice in one day. Sadly I'm pretty sure they've all been internal campaign polls verging on push polls because they all ask about that senate race and then go on to test out a bunch of different ways to try to claim the Republican incumbent is actually very close to her district, super moderate, and not anti abortion at all. yeah you weren't being polled, just advertised to
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Sep 9, 2023 19:47
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