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Absurd Alhazred posted:Those 10 people are the ones getting 200mn a year to go play for Saudi Arabia, though. Good for them if they can get it.
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Sep 4, 2023 00:43
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Sure works for the US government, remarkably silent on the whole kashoggi thing. But now that SA is leaning towards BRICS and China, I expect we will see a shift in US public behavior towards SA. Even with the contact of this thread, this is a confusing sentence. SA is already in BRICS, it’s the S. If you’re talking about Saudi Arabia, its abbreviation is always KSA, doubly so when in a sentence also talking about South Africa. And I don’t think it’s leaning more towards China in any meaningful way except for oil sales. For military KSA is still very firmly in camp America. South Africa can be RSA if you really want to distinguish it but don’t want to spell it out. KSA is the standard abbreviation for Saudi Arabia, as common as using the US or USA for the United States of America. Blut posted:-45% in tax - down to $55mn $20m/year for 15-ish years at peak of career for these particular players is still an obscene amount of money that you can easily live on in luxury for generations even if you retire at age 38. Mike Tyson is famously an idiot. For the normal NFL players making $1m a year pretax, I agree and for sure get how they can go bankrupt, since their entire pro career will probably net them maybe $3m, and since that all comes in their 20s and comes with lots of extremely dumb financial hazing rituals like rookies taking the entire team out for $50k meals where everyone orders two bottles of Dom Perignon and expectations to buy a massive house that you’ll use two rooms in and only see half the year. For the regular guys going to Saudi Arabia’s golf instead of PGA I absolutely get it. Neymar losing a year of his life in Riyadh for an extra 3% in his bank account is more perplexing, but maybe it’s short enough that it’s a fun novelty field trip. My wife went to Cairo for a year for work and it was treated basically as such, although Cairo is likely a lot more fun than I expect Riyadh is.
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Sep 4, 2023 08:10
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Saladman posted:Even with the contact of this thread, this is a confusing sentence. SA is already in BRICS, it’s the S. If you’re talking about Saudi Arabia, its abbreviation is always KSA, doubly so when in a sentence also talking about South Africa. And I don’t think it’s leaning more towards China in any meaningful way except for oil sales. For military KSA is still very firmly in camp America. It has never been Saudi Arabia. OP means that KSA has leaned onto BRICS as a middle power instead of align with Western interests that they historically have. You also saw this with countries like UAE blatantly disregarding global sanctions and norms. (See: Russia, Yemen, Iran) Historically their behavior of occasional beheadings and human rights violations are excused because they so strongly supported US foreign policy, but as the latter softens, so too will the US's blind eye to the former. quote:My wife went to Cairo for a year for work and it was treated basically as such, although Cairo is likely a lot more fun than I expect Riyadh is. If you interpret the sports investments as part of their modernization plan, it seems less crazy. At least it'll be cheaper than NEOM. i fly airplanes fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Sep 4, 2023 |
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Sep 4, 2023 09:27
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US split with KSA really happened quite a while ago and the senate censuring KSA in 2019 and the US withdrawing much of their military support and, at least for a while, withholding even maintenance crews from AF of KSA in response to the war in Yemen is probably the main inflection point. Granted the start of the distance really traces back even further back to the early 2000s and when 'independence from middle eastern oil' was being talked about and actually pushed effectively as a long-running policy priority, that meant KSA as much as anyone else. Sauds have been monsters for a long time and that was plainly a deal with the devil even if it was geopolitically necessary due to energy needs. Ironically China now gets that dubious spot of being increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern oil and the Sauds in particular and I'd be surprised if anyone on either side of American politics is sad to see the US finally drift out of KSA's orbit.
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Sep 5, 2023 03:46
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coinciding with a seeming uptick in azerbaijani military activity, armenia has announced that it will hold military exercises with the us. the kremlin says it's "concerned" about this developmentquote:Armenia will host joint drills with US forces next week, officials in Yerevan said Wednesday, the latest sign of the ex-Soviet republic's drift from its traditional ally Russia. the us seems generally sympathetic to armenia in this conflict, so i kind of understand this move, but i'm kind of skeptical they could be any more effective than russia. maybe this needles russia to do more than stand around
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Sep 6, 2023 18:32
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the new ambassador to Armenia was acting ambassador to Ukraine until a couple months into the war so that's probably a sign they're taking this area seriously?
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Sep 6, 2023 19:07
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if they can split armenia off from russia it's a win for the US, but i really doubt that armenia carries more weight than azerbaijan pretty much anywhere, including in DC. it depends how willing aliyev is to play along, i guess. it could be a positive sign for armenia, and it's imo smart to try and shop around a little for security when your current protector has shown itself uninclined to seriously intervene on your behalf.
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Sep 6, 2023 19:13
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This is a good move. Armenia has always been in an interesting spot wrt the US as it is not really an ally, but is a mostly democratic country that has a large diaspora and good soft power. The US needs to show that Azerbaijan and Turkey can't just gobble Armenia up and genocide them, as they clearly want to.
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Sep 6, 2023 20:58
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Hopefully they're getting security guarantees that carry more weight than they ones they got from the CSTO. It'll be interesting to see if the Nagorno-Karabakh blockade gets more play in the news now
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Sep 6, 2023 21:28
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FishBulbia posted:This is a good move. Armenia has always been in an interesting spot wrt the US as it is not really an ally, but is a mostly democratic country that has a large diaspora and good soft power. The US needs to show that Azerbaijan and Turkey can't just gobble Armenia up and genocide them, as they clearly want to. it is not obvious to me that the US needs to do anything of the sort, but it's imo a worthwhile gamble for the armenians
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Sep 7, 2023 00:06
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V. Illych L. posted:it is not obvious to me that the US needs to do anything of the sort, but it's imo a worthwhile gamble for the armenians yeah honestly, morals aside, NATO turkey and oil-rich azerbaijan have more to offer the US in a realpolitik stance, los angeles expats aside. i'm not sure peeling off russia's tiniest ally is going to be considered worth it by the admin
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Sep 7, 2023 03:22
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I think standing by while Armenia die would be a pretty strong indictment of Biden's new "Democratic World vs Autocracy" model.
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Sep 7, 2023 12:49
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sort of? I do think the US should meddle (in a soft power sense) insofar as it has leverage at least with Turkey who at least has leverage with Azerbaijan, but the US has basically jack poo poo influence over either party and the security situation should firmly be in the realm of the CSTO and Azerbaijan (and allies). It's hard to conceive of a conflict less connected to the US, presence of a diaspora populartion aside. Still, it's a pretty poo poo situation when the US meddling might actually be the favorable outcome if it could indeed prevent Azerbaijan from continuing to gobble up Armenia. honestly idk who looks at that situation and thinks that the US has jack poo poo to do with it. most people likely to see the world through that much of an amerocentric lense are probably just glad the US isn't launching another world police action Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Sep 7, 2023 |
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Sep 7, 2023 18:34
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Idk about Armenia but my wife is from and a lot of in laws live in Kazakhstan and they are loving ecstatic about getting meddling outsiders, be they US or chinese, taking interest instead of Rightful CSTO Influence or whatever bullshit. For reference the last collective security that happened in Kazakhstan was an armed response last year to popular protests including calling in the loving russian VDV from the government that led to hundreds killed and thousands wounded and imprisoned. Forgive me but no, the CSTO can go gently caress itself and should not be trusted unless your goal is Soft Power Russian Empire Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Sep 7, 2023 |
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Sep 7, 2023 19:21
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FishBulbia posted:I think standing by while Armenia die would be a pretty strong indictment of Biden's new "Democratic World vs Autocracy" model. i have bad news for you about the US foreign policy establishment e; the US has obvious interests in europe, and by extension they have a very strong interest in keeping the gas flowing from azerbaijan. they also have a very strong frenemy relationship with turkey. the US is the current hegemon and so if a minor power is unhappy about its security arrangement to make its patron jealous it's a natural target for flirtation. i do not think that it's a good idea for armenia to make a serious bet on the US, but i do think that as a matter of signalling their disappointment to the russians it could be a good move. V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Sep 7, 2023 |
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Sep 7, 2023 20:10
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Aliyev can go gently caress himself but Turkey's kind of needed still what with the whole russia situation. Thankfully they seem to be ok just denying the genocide rather than actively doing more so hopefully Erdogan could be kept at bay without flipping. Armenia's been pretty close with EU despite the perception of sucking up to Azerbaijan (which was happening a bit due to gas supplies), so I think there's a good opening for a more direct involvement from both EU and US there. At some point it's not enough to just talk about normalizing relations and then doing nothing while another friendly democratic country gets wrecked. https://eurasianet.org/armenia-gets-aid-boost-from-eu https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/...tional-borders/
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Sep 7, 2023 20:12
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Idk about Armenia but my wife is from and a lot of in laws live in Kazakhstan and they are loving ecstatic about getting meddling outsiders, be they US or chinese, taking interest instead of Rightful CSTO Influence or whatever bullshit. csto sucks poo poo but for a huge number of reasons it's important to have regional power structures and cooperative international/regional organization to resolve issues beyond just hoping that the US might try to pull strings in a good direction
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Sep 8, 2023 08:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:csto sucks poo poo but for a huge number of reasons it's important to have regional power structures and cooperative international/regional organization to resolve issues beyond just hoping that the US might try to pull strings in a good direction It also made more sense immediately after the fall of the soviet union. If you're Armenia back then why on earth wouldn't you want a security agreement and Russian military base in case Turkey and Azerbaijan want to finish the genocide?
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Sep 8, 2023 12:26
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adebisi lives posted:It also made more sense immediately after the fall of the soviet union. If you're Armenia back then why on earth wouldn't you want a security agreement and Russian military base in case Turkey and Azerbaijan want to finish the genocide? And being part of an organization like that (or really any military alliance) is kinda like paying protection money to the mob. Yes you're getting protection, at least in theory. But failure to but said protection can itself have bad consequences. This is an odd time for the former Soviet Union. Russia is basically trying to rebuild its empire which provokes opinions in its neighbours. Empires naturally ebb and flow, it's hard to say if Russia will be able to expand in the long term or not. But this process has never taken place while nuclear weapons were around. The lines drawn in the Cold War were done mostly before Hiroshima. Even if Ukraine has shown nukes don't get used at the drop of a hat the threat is always present.
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Sep 8, 2023 12:56
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adebisi lives posted:It also made more sense immediately after the fall of the soviet union. If you're Armenia back then why on earth wouldn't you want a security agreement and Russian military base in case Turkey and Azerbaijan want to finish the genocide? turkey sure, but after the dissolution of the soviet union is when armenia won the first nagorno-karabakh war against azerbaijan
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Sep 8, 2023 16:49
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mobby_6kl posted:Aliyev can go gently caress himself but Turkey's kind of needed still what with the whole russia situation. Thankfully they seem to be ok just denying the genocide rather than actively doing more so hopefully Erdogan could be kept at bay without flipping. Is Armenia really any "friendlier" than Azerbaijan? The two countries are like 100% and 97% geopolitically irrelevant for the EU, even with the current gas stuff. The Azeri market share of gas to Europe increased by 50% from 2021 to 2022, but that was from uh... [checking*...] 2% to 3%. von der Leyen didn't throw Armenia to the dogs for a tiny amount of gas. No one wanted to get involved, Russia would bitch about it even if they did, and it's not like there are any "good guys" in the Nargorno-Karabakh conflict. The Armenians are a giant bag of dicks as well. The current blockade is pretty hosed up, but the basis of the current conflict is absolutely not an exclusively-Azeris-being-dickholes situation, unlike Ukraine-Russia. *https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/europe-turns-azerbaijan-gas-how-big-could-be source for the geopolitical irrelevance of Azeri gas to the EU. Saladman fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Sep 8, 2023 |
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Sep 8, 2023 19:39
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i'm pretty comfortable saying that the guys launching a military operation to conquer an area based on old grievance and revanchism are the bad guys in the current situation see also, russia in ukraine e. russia's armenia's patron because there really isn't much of a workable alternative for them. if france could reach into the caucasus they could be a useful friend, but they can't so they aren't. russia's in the neighbourhood and has some leverage with the major threats, so they're the obvious choice of protector. when russia fails to live up to this role, however, a serious show of dissatisfaction is perfectly reasonable. V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 00:41
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FishBulbia posted:This is a good move. Armenia has always been in an interesting spot wrt the US as it is not really an ally, but is a mostly democratic country that has a large diaspora and good soft power. The US needs to show that Azerbaijan and Turkey can't just gobble Armenia up and genocide them, as they clearly want to. So is Georgia. Sadly being a democracy doesn't stop you from being invaded by Russia or changing the realpolitik/military alliances in the region. Like a supposed NATO ally supplying drones and military to Azerbaijan. And honestly, this is the EU's backyard. These countries fly the European Community flag because they want to be associated with the West, and it's an indictment on the uselessness of the EU CFSP when it's the US having to step into the Caucasus.
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Sep 9, 2023 05:03
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turkey is probably the second most important country in NATO and have one of the oldest and deepest bilateral security collaborations with the US, there's nothing "supposed" about that alliance. people really need to stop taking rhetoric about "democracy" or "democratisation" on face value, democracy as such carries zero geopolitical weight. the US likes countries whose elites are on board with the global US-led project, whether we're talking about sweden or qatar. at the moment and for the foreseeable future, azerbaijan is more valuable to this project than armenia, and so the US is not going to seriously commit to armenia over azerbaijan over something so sentimental as having elections or a relatively open society e. like, nobody serious has even publicly considered imposing an arms embargo on azerbaijan, much like nobody considered embargoing saudi arabia during the yemen war. this has absolutely nothing to do with the powers that be thinking that those wars are morally justified, but a great deal to do with the broader geopolitical alignment of the leaders of the nations involved. this is also why the UK and later the US have traditionally been so happy to work with the most reactionary kinds of sunni fundamentalist; you know where you've got them and you can make a deal which you can trust, more or less. it's not because churchill found the doctrines appealing or something V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 10:55 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 10:48
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i fly airplanes posted:And honestly, this is the EU's backyard. This is like saying that Lebanon is EU's backyard. They're not even neighbours.
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Sep 9, 2023 11:54
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If Gerogia joins the EU then the rest of the Caucases will be the EU's backyard. If that happens then Armenia might also be a candidate, geopolitics allowing.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:32
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When I visited Yerevan a few years ago there was EU sponsored celebrations in the main plaza so a few years ago there was at least some EU org that thought it would be good to be closer to Armenia.
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Sep 9, 2023 13:45
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From a realpolitik point of view, Azerbaijan achieving its advanced goals, that is an invasion of Syunik (which looks increasing likely considering the shipments of arms arriving in Nakhchivan) would be a disaster for NATO and the EU. It would not only result in the expulsion or genocide of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, but also likely the creation of an Azeri-Turkish Union state, a strongly nationalist authoritarian entity which would have a population of 100 million and a massive military. The EU and NATO would be faced with another Russia on their borders.
FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 15:05
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FishBulbia posted:From a realpolitik point of view, Azerbaijan achieving its advanced goals, that is an invasion of Syunik (which looks increasing likely considering the shipments of arms arriving in Nakhchivan) would be a disaster for NATO and the EU. It would not only result in the expulsion or genocide of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, but also likely the creation of an Azeri-Turkish Union state, a strongly nationalist authoritarian entity which would have a population of 100 million and a massive military. The EU and NATO would be faced with another Russia on their borders. except, of course, that turkey has been a NATO member in good standing since 1952 through worse outrages than being allied with an aggressive regional power the US has nukes in turkey. turkey generally plays nice with US clients and interests in the middle east. they have the second largest military in NATO. they're key to limiting middle-eastern migration into the Schengen area. they control access to the black sea. they have so deep ties to the US that the term "deep state" was for a long time most commonly - and largely uncontroversially - applied to the turkish pro-US military-intelligence establishment. turkey is very important and have made some key concessions, so they get to do what they want in a lot of areas. V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 16:02
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Awesome. It'll be NATO's genocide then. I wonder if NATO could pivot toward Russia, aid them in genociding Ukraine, and then integrate Russia as a counterweight against China. Seems like the logical realpolitik approach.
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Sep 9, 2023 16:22
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FishBulbia posted:From a realpolitik point of view, Azerbaijan achieving its advanced goals, that is an invasion of Syunik (which looks increasing likely considering the shipments of arms arriving in Nakhchivan) would be a disaster for NATO and the EU. It would not only result in the expulsion or genocide of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, but also likely the creation of an Azeri-Turkish Union state, a strongly nationalist authoritarian entity which would have a population of 100 million and a massive military. The EU and NATO would be faced with another Russia on their borders. How exactly would this be a disaster for the EU and NATO? Neither cares particularly about Armenia, a literal Russian ally. Azerbaijan supplies gas to the EU. And Turkey is a NATO member, that cooperates extensively with the EU. Both are far more relevant/useful to the EU and NATO from a realpolitik point of view than Armenia.
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Sep 9, 2023 16:32
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FishBulbia posted:From a realpolitik point of view, Azerbaijan achieving its advanced goals, that is an invasion of Syunik (which looks increasing likely considering the shipments of arms arriving in Nakhchivan) would be a disaster for NATO and the EU. It would not only result in the expulsion or genocide of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, but also likely the creation of an Azeri-Turkish Union state, a strongly nationalist authoritarian entity which would have a population of 100 million and a massive military. The EU and NATO would be faced with another Russia on their borders. FishBulbia posted:Awesome. It'll be NATO's genocide then.  this is quite the theorycrafting
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Sep 9, 2023 16:32
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Never have I considered how the elimination of Armenians as a nation could be so beneficial for NATO.
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Sep 9, 2023 16:47
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FishBulbia posted:Never have I considered how the elimination of Armenians as a nation could be so beneficial for NATO. it's not beneficial; it just barely matters to NATO's strategic interest
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Sep 9, 2023 16:48
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Blut posted:How exactly would this be a disaster for the EU and NATO? Neither cares particularly about Armenia, a literal Russian ally. Expansionary autocracies will eventually attempt to expand.
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Sep 9, 2023 16:51
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Every opportunistic country seeks to expand, we (the USA) didn't just fall rear end-first into 750 overseas military bases, after all. The answer to that has typically been mutual alliances between countries not that interested in eating each other, or vassal status. Azerbaijan isn't a threat to Turkey, and the other neighbors are Iran, Iraq, Georgia, and Russia. We (the west) are entirely OK with Azerbaijan starting poo poo with those guys, if they do.
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Sep 9, 2023 17:02
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FishBulbia posted:Expansionary autocracies will eventually attempt to expand. setting aside that this is not necessarily true, it's not at all clear why this is a problem for the US or NATO e. to be clear, i think that we (as in, citizens of NATO countries) should be pushing for an arms embargo of azerbaijan connected to this mess, i just do not believe that this sort of concern matters much to the decision making of these institutions V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Sep 9, 2023 |
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Sep 9, 2023 17:21
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https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/magnitude-7-earthquake-strikes-morocco-gfz-2023-09-08/ There was an earthquake yesterday 50 miles out from Marrakesh, so far 2000 dead
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Sep 9, 2023 23:04
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FishBulbia posted:Expansionary autocracies will eventually attempt to expand. Theres absolutely no guarantee of Azerbaijan expanding into anywhere else. If they do, and if its expansionary noises towards a NATO/EU friendly nation, then there would be realpolitik concerns. But until that point Azerbaijan is far more useful to both the EU and NATO than Armenia, so nothing will be done. If anything the EU is only likely to deepen its cooperation with Azerbaijan for their gas. The Armenians made a very bad bet on the CSTO it turns out, they should have joined NATO instead.
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Sep 10, 2023 18:42
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FishBulbia posted:It would not only result in the expulsion or genocide of hundreds of thousands of Armenians, but also likely the creation of an Azeri-Turkish Union state, a strongly nationalist authoritarian entity which would have a population of 100 million and a massive military. The Azeris would want to become a province of Turkey because... why, exactly? Not that I expect a coherent answer based on your other posts, but lets see where this goes.
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Sep 10, 2023 20:06
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