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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
I'm seeing lots of chatter on Reddit (and vidoes with some massive explosions)that the Sevastpol attack might have destroyed a landing craft and a freaking diesel submarine that was docked there. If so it should be confirmed pretty quick through satellite imagery.

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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Things are definitely popping off there.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1701802453048398007

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Starlink went down globally for an hour or two earlier today, so I don't think they were related.

Also, according to Musk's biographer in the Atlantic the new contract they signed with the military after the issues actually gives the military ownership of some of the satellites and not just a contract for service:

quote:

Isaacson: When Russia invaded Ukraine, they were able to disable the satellite communications of private companies, like Viasat, and military satellites. The only one that could resist Russian attacks was Starlink, and immediately Musk started getting texts from Ukrainian leaders. His savior instincts kick in, and he’s deeply supportive of Ukraine. He sends hundreds of Starlink satellites and pays for free use by Ukraine. Then as the war goes on, there’s one amazing Friday night where he texted me, and I’m at my old high school watching a football game. I go behind the bleachers, and he’s talking about the Ukrainians using Starlink for a sneak submarine drone attack on the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. And he says, “How did I get into this war? I just made Starlink so people could watch movies and play games.” He decides not to allow the Ukranian drone subs to sink the Russian fleet, which he thinks would lead to World War III. He begins to realize, Why am I in this position? That’s too much power.

He then makes a deal to be just a contractor and allow certain of these satellites to be owned and controlled by the U.S. military and intelligence, creating something called Starshield, where these things are used for military purposes, but he’s not the one in charge of them. I think that’s a logical outcome. So, yes, he’s got an extraordinary amount of power by being the only person who has a communications system that can’t be hacked in outer space. But he realizes that and feels his way out of it.

From: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/09/elon-musk-walter-isaacson-biography/675277/

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

https://www.twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1701811541933260836?s=46&t=eYnb6uC9Nqku2TRAz1AKtQ

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
Pretty hilarious that Ukraine might have destroyed a Russian sub when Kim Jong Un was in town

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

Charliegrs posted:

Pretty hilarious that Ukraine might have destroyed a Russian sub when Kim Jong Un was in town

I'm pretty sure he was in a different town much further away. One might even call it a different country.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
The landing craft has now soaked a sea drone and a cruise missile attack. At this point it should be decorated as a hero ship for its efforts.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

Ra Ra Rasputin posted:

Was thinking the other day how growing up in the food shortages after WW2 affected my father and was wondering what the situation is in Ukraine for food, are the farmers still able to harvest this late into the conflict? are the people getting enough food imports despite russian sabotage? is the food variety and quality good still?

I do not know about the quality aspect, but other than areas directly and adjacent to the front lines, farmers in Ukraine are still doing their thing. Directly it is a causing food scarcity (probably due to high prices) in areas of the Middle East and Africa who are big importers (think China is the current largest importer) of Ukrainian grains. Indirectly everyone is paying more for food.

OddObserver posted:

I hate to give it to Putin, but I think at least he doesn't throw in the "Judeo" for fundamentalist Christian nonsense.

The former Soviet Union and its influence in/on Austria still plays a part, and a lot of those relations never went away. We can see this in part how the country is still mostly opposed to joining NATO and in certain circles been against arming Ukraine, and it is also worth mentioning they continue to import Russian gas. Which interestingly has not prevented energy costs from doubling/tripling in some areas.

enigma74
Aug 5, 2005
a lean lobster who probably doesn't even taste good.

Dick Ripple posted:

...Which interestingly has not prevented energy costs from doubling/tripling in some areas.

How is that so? I would think that it's basically as cheap as can possibly be since they are getting the fascist club discount?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Good question. You get the usual answers of volatility, inflation, and outside markets.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1701720456708153637

:cripes: good lord is it too much to ask for a politician not to mouth off about the intellectual capacity of countries with billions of people?

this sure as poo poo makes it easy for propaganda to overemphasize the rightwing elements in zelensky's government

e: the longer statement than that clip just seems odd:

quote:

China, India and Turkey are making money from the war in Ukraine, but “have weak intellectual potential” and “do not analyze the consequences of their steps,” said adviser to the head of the OP Podolyak.

“Yes, they are investing in science. India landed a lunar rover. But this does not mean that this country understands exactly what the modern world is. These countries today are making money from this war. They are making money effectively. Just like the Republic of Turkey and this is, in principle, national interests It sounds nice - “we comply with the needs of our national interests,” Podolyak argues.

In his opinion, these countries will receive cheaper raw materials and other economic benefits, such as the construction of a gas hub in Turkey, India will reserve 38 billion rupees for which the Russian Federation sold gas, China will have the opportunity to buy gas at a discount and complete the construction of the gas pipeline.

“China should be interested in the disappearance of Russia. Because it is an archaic country that drags China into unnecessary conflicts. China could be one of the dominant states,” says adviser to Ermak.

Also in this interview, Podolyak criticized international organizations. He called the UN “a money-making office.”

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Sep 13, 2023

FuturePastNow
May 19, 2014


A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1701720456708153637

:cripes: good lord is it too much to ask for a politician not to mouth off about the intellectual capacity of countries with billions of people?

this sure as poo poo makes it easy for propaganda to overemphasize the rightwing elements in zelensky's government

People who think that way also think everyone agrees with them

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

A big flaming stink posted:

[url]https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1701720456708153637[url]

:cripes: good lord is it too much to ask for a politician not to mouth off about the intellectual capacity of countries with billions of people?

this sure as poo poo makes it easy for propaganda to overemphasize the rightwing elements in zelensky's government

e: the longer statement than that clip just seems odd:

Good lord, that account. How much do you trust that translation and editing?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1701720456708153637

:cripes: good lord is it too much to ask for a politician not to mouth off about the intellectual capacity of countries with billions of people?

this sure as poo poo makes it easy for propaganda to overemphasize the rightwing elements in zelensky's government

e: the longer statement than that clip just seems odd:

Cool link to blatant CCP shill

Podolyak is odd like that, he likes hot air declarations

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

Cool link to blatant CCP shill

Podolyak is odd like that, he likes hot air declarations

i'd like it if his oddness was less super racist

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

There's one confirmed casualty from last night's rocket attack

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1701926113918808176

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Wow. That's a big hit
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1701784669266559392

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day
You sunk my blyatalship!

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer
e: nevermind, bad joke

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

D-Pad posted:

Also, according to Musk's biographer in the Atlantic the new contract they signed with the military after the issues actually gives the military ownership of some of the satellites and not just a contract for service:


That's a bit misrepresented. Only 4 of the Starshield satellites have been launched, it's basically SpaceX offering to launch an entirely separate second network that would be owned and operated by DoD, and so far they bought a demonstration flight.

I think it's more likely that the DoD will continue to operate on the SpaceX network, but will sign new, more binding contracts for it, the space force has been very enthusiastic about piggybacking on a commercial network with tens of thousands of satellites (and thus redundancy), instead of having to pay to launch their own.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

LifeSunDeath posted:

You sunk my blyatalship!
Kilo class sub and landing ship
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1701912430404673842

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Putin has now lost Moscow, Minsk and Rostov to Ukrainians :ohdear:

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



is that the first submarine hit by enemy fire in maybe like 80 years?

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

ethanol posted:

is that the first submarine hit by enemy fire in maybe like 80 years?

Seems to be the Falklands war so closer to 40.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Santa_Fe_(S-21)

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
If this continues they should rename the navy base as Sevastolol

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

dr_rat posted:

Seems to be the Falklands war so closer to 40.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Santa_Fe_(S-21)

Interestingly Santa Fe was a WW2 boat, though, almost 40 years old when she was lost! Rostov na Donu was one of the newest Kilos however, commissioned just nine years ago. That's got to cause someone's demotion.

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day
I heard the russians were installing new screen doors on their submarines to help avoid drone strikes.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

A big flaming stink posted:

i'd like it if his oddness was less super racist

Try looking for a non biased translation source.

alex314
Nov 22, 2007

ummel posted:

Try looking for a non biased translation source.

To be fair it's not something a politician close to acting president should have said. But the description is obviously misleading. It's like someone saying "USA was intellectually deficient for going into Iraq" and someone reacting "He called all Americans dumb!"

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

A big flaming stink posted:

i'd like it if his oddness was less super racist

In Russian the phrasing is maybe slightly less objectionable, and in context I'm sure he meant governments not Chinese and Indian people in general. Whenever he speaks about Belarus's involvement, he always prefaces it with a disclaimer that he separates Lukashenko's regime from regular Balarusians, but then just continues to say Belarus this and Belarus that. So maybe he said something similar here, too. Still, obviously, a very daft thing for an official to say about countries that at least pretend to be neutral in the conflict.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Nenonen posted:

If this continues they should rename the navy base as Sevastolol

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: Sevastolol

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


NY Times with an update on Russian ammo:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

quote:

Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable to intensified attacks in the coming months.

In addition to spending more than $40 billion providing weapons for Ukraine, the United States has made curbing Russia’s military supply a key part of its strategy to support Kyiv.

As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.

Russia subverted American export controls using its intelligence services and ministry of defense to run illicit networks of people who smuggle key components by exporting them to other countries from which they can be shipped to Russia more easily. In less than a year since the war began, Russia rebuilt trade in critical components by routing them through countries like Armenia and Turkey. U.S. and European regulators have been trying to work together to curb the export of chips to Russia, but have struggled to stop the flow to pass through countries with ties to Moscow.

Russia’s re-energized military production is especially worrisome because Moscow has used artillery to pound Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, and its missiles to attack the electric grid and other critical infrastructure, and to terrorize civilians in cities. Officials fear that increased missile stocks could mean an especially dark and cold winter for Ukrainian citizens.

In the meantime, the Pentagon is working to find ways to help Ukrainians better take down the missiles and drones fired by Russia at civilian targets in Kyiv and military targets around the country. The Pentagon has provided Patriot air defense systems and cajoled allies to provide S-300 air defense ammunition, both of which have proven effective. It has also provided other air defenses like the Avenger system and the Hawk air defense system.

But Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems to cover the entire country, and must pick the sites it defends. An increased barrage of missiles could overwhelm the country’s air defenses, Ukrainian officials said.

In October 2022, the United States gathered international officials in Washington in an effort to strengthen sanctions on the Russian economy. At the time, American officials said they believed the sanctions and export controls were working in part because they deterred countries from sending microchips, circuit boards, computer processors and other components needed for precision guided weaponry as well as necessary components for diesel engines, helicopters and tanks.

But Russia adapted quickly with its own efforts to secure supplies of the needed parts.

Today, Russian officials have remade their economy to focus on defense production. With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials required for cruise missiles and other precision guided weaponry. As a result, military production has not only recovered but surged.

Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.

Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.

Still, Russia faces some shortcomings. It does not have huge inventories of missiles, though they have more of some kinds — like the Kh-55 air-launched cruise missile — in stock now than they did at the beginning of the war, according to people briefed on intelligence reports.

“In certain areas, they’ve been able to significantly ramp up production,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, an international security expert and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington-based think tank.

In cases where Russia needs millions of one particular component, export controls can grind production to a halt. But the chips needed to make a couple of hundred cruise missiles would fit into a few backpacks, which makes evading sanctions relatively simple, Mr. Alperovitch said.

American officials said they can slow, but not stop Russia from smuggling the parts it needs for missile production and that it was unrealistic to think Moscow would not react to the American curbs. One way Russia has adapted is by shipping components to third countries then diverting them there back to Russia, according to the Commerce Department.

“Because the controls were having a real impact, the Russian government didn’t just throw up their hands and say, ‘You got us, we give up,’ ” said Matthew S. Axelrod, the Commerce Department’s assistance secretary for export enforcement. “They got more and more creative with their evasion attempts. And we have been really aggressively working a number of different ways to clamp down.”

Currently, the United States and the European Union have a joint list of 38 different categories of items whose export to Russia is restricted. American officials said nine of the 38, mostly microelectronics that power missiles and drones, are the highest priority to block.

American and European officials have been working with banks to develop a warning system to alert governments to possible sanctions violations. So far American banks have alerted the U.S. government to 400 suspicious transactions. The Commerce Department has been able to use a third of those suspicious activity reports in its investigations.

On Aug. 31, the Commerce Department accused three people of taking part in an illicit Russian procurement network. One of the three, Arthur Petrov, a Russian-German national, was arrested and charged by the Justice Department with export control violations.

Mr. Petrov is accused of acquiring microelectronics from U.S.-based exporters for the purpose of sending them to Cyprus, Latvia or Tajikistan. Once there, other companies helped send the components onward, eventually making their way to Russia.

One of the challenges for the U.S. government is that Russia does not need higher-end chips that are easier to track, but commoditized chips that can be used in a wide range of things, not just guided missiles.

“It makes our job harder because there are a lot of countries that it’s legal and totally fine to sell those chips to for legitimate commercial purposes,” Mr. Axelrod said. “The problem is when those chips then get diverted and shipped to Russia.”

American and Western officials say there is some good news. Russian production is still not keeping pace with how fast the military is burning through ammunition and wearing out equipment. For example, even though Russia is on pace to produce two million rounds of ammunition a year, it fired about 10 million rounds of artillery last year. That has led Moscow to desperately search for alternative sources to increase its stocks, most recently by trying to secure a weapons deal with North Korea, U.S. and Western officials said.

And although Moscow has been successful in smuggling processors and circuit boards, it is facing a shortage of rocket propellant and basic explosives, American officials said, material that can be harder to smuggle than circuit boards. Those shortages are likely to constrain Moscow if it tries to step up further production of ammunition, missile or bomb.

Russa’s increased military production has also come at a great cost to the Russian economy, particularly as interest rates spike in the country. Sanctions have taken a toll on the Russian economy’s overall health, and overcoming Western export bans has not come cheaply, said American and Western officials. The senior Western defense official said that Russia had reallocated nearly a third of its commercial economy toward arms production. The country faces a labor shortage that could make further industrial gains harder to achieve too.

Russia cut back on its attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid during the summer. But as temperatures plunge, some Ukrainian and Western analysts and government officials think Russia could renew the terror campaign on Kyiv, in hopes that it will sap Ukrainians’ will to fight.

U.S. officials hope the steady supply of air defense ammunition and additional help to improve how Ukraine intercepts Russian attacks could help counter a reinforced barrage of missiles. And Ukrainian defenses have — in some situations — grown stronger.

“Ukrainians have become better in defending their infrastructure and building defenses around their power stations and critical power grids,” Mr. Salm said. “They have become better at fixing and making sure that the impact of the power outages and other utility outages are not as harsh.”

I think if missile production isn't slowing down and Russia is indeed stockpiling munitions for mass strikes in Winter, the recent attacks on airbases and Sevastopol is even more significant. Forcing Russians to launch from further back and reducing the amount of missiles they can throw in the air at once will be critical.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
https://twitter.com/BlackSky_Inc/status/1701994911887679598

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1702003307038814391

EmployeeOfTheMonth
Jul 28, 2005
It's the positive attitude that does it

WarpedLichen posted:

NY Times with an update on Russian ammo:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I think if missile production isn't slowing down and Russia is indeed stockpiling munitions for mass strikes in Winter, the recent attacks on airbases and Sevastopol is even more significant. Forcing Russians to launch from further back and reducing the amount of missiles they can throw in the air at once will be critical.


Pretty sobering read especially on the artillery shells and the missles.

Sigmund Fraud
Jul 31, 2005

Sweden is looking to donating one to two divisions (16-18 planes each) of SAAB Gripen jets. The government will soon request the ministry of defense to report how fesable it would be. The Gripen is a 4.5 gen multi role jet fighter capable of operating from improvised air strips such as highways. The govt. is hoping for a short time frame with deliveries next year. There is political unity in supporting Ukraine militarily but the cost of donating upwards 36 modern fighters is eye watering for such a small country.

My guess that manufacturing capacity and training of pilots will be the biggest hurdles to overcome. The plane is comparatively easy to maintain and can be done by a small ground crew with short training and on existing air fields.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Sigmund Fraud posted:

Sweden is looking to donating one to two divisions (16-18 planes each) of SAAB Gripen jets. The government will soon request the ministry of defense to report how fesable it would be. The Gripen is a 4.5 gen multi role jet fighter capable of operating from improvised air strips such as highways. The govt. is hoping for a short time frame with deliveries next year. There is political unity in supporting Ukraine militarily but the cost of donating upwards 36 modern fighters is eye watering for such a small country.

My guess that manufacturing capacity and training of pilots will be the biggest hurdles to overcome. The plane is comparatively easy to maintain and can be done by a small ground crew with short training and on existing air fields.

Fyi it was reported yesterday and today in Swedish media that the previously promised training on gripen is under way and Ukrainian pilots and techniciams are on site in Sweden for training.

And yes the Gripen is literally designed to defend against Russia in terrain and climate very similar to Ukraine so it would be a very good fit.

e: from a more cynical perspective, there's also the angle that Sweden's defence industry has tried for decades to get more export deals for Gripen, but have often lost out either due to the plane being untested in combat or because of the US waving enough carrots and sticks for countries to buy F-35s that they don't need instead. Sweden suddenly wanting to intervene in Libya by sending Gripen planes was, at the time, often described as a marketing ploy. So while sending 30 planes to Ukraine would be a staggering chunk of our defense budget, it's possible that there are talks about future contracts (either for the Ukrainian airforce or other countries) that could make it it slightly more palatable.

For perspective, it'd be 1/3 of our fleet of Gripen. I'd be like the US sending 180 F-35s.

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Sep 13, 2023

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
It's kind of amazing how Ukraine can lose a few Bradleys and Leopards and people think they should start negotiating away their land to end the war.

But Russia loses a landing ship and a submarine in one night and no one bats an eye.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

WarpedLichen posted:

NY Times with an update on Russian ammo:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I think if missile production isn't slowing down and Russia is indeed stockpiling munitions for mass strikes in Winter, the recent attacks on airbases and Sevastopol is even more significant. Forcing Russians to launch from further back and reducing the amount of missiles they can throw in the air at once will be critical.

This is an interesting piece. I am having trouble connecting the dots between stifling Russia's imports/exports and squeezing their ability to build armaments. They talk a lot about high tech components for missiles, but shells don't need that.

They do seem to have missed a big piece of the puzzle tho:


quote:

Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.

The amount of grift in the West is substantial. I find it hard to believe that it takes 10x as much resources to make the same shell "safer". Shells are supposed to be cheap, that's the whole point.

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Sep 13, 2023

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
there's a cheaper 155mm round the us produces around $1000 idk why the article went with that one

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Armacham
Mar 3, 2007

Then brothers in war, to the skirmish must we hence! Shall we hence?

Cpt_Obvious posted:

This is an interesting piece. I am having trouble connecting the dots between stifling Russia's imports/exports and squeezing their ability to build armaments. They talk a lot about high tech components for missiles, but shells don't need that.

They do seem to have missed a big piece of the puzzle tho:

The amount of grift in the West is substantial. I find it hard to believe that it takes 10x as much resources to make the same shell "safer". Shells are supposed to be cheap, that's the whole point.

We both made shells for the Nazis, but mine worked damnit!

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