(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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They are ships - a bit big to fit on a truck.
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Sep 14, 2023 13:50
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think you make a fair point about trusting numbers from interested parties like the Estonian MOD. Similarly interested parties were making the opposite claims very recently, that Russia can't produce shells in significant numbers or would rapidly run out of them at the start of the war. I think it's important to question this narrative shift. What is accomplished by claiming Russia is running out of shells vs Russia is producing 7x the combined capacity of the West? How does this change the public perception of the war? Does it drive support or quash it? Do you have any examples of a an actual narrative shift? Or are you referring to a different party voicing a different perspective as an example of narrative shift?
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Sep 14, 2023 14:02
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unknown posted:They are ships - a bit big to fit on a truck. You could pull them apart, transport the hull this way over train, then reassemble at the Black Sea coast. The welders just need to work fast before the first Neptunes arrive. 
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Sep 14, 2023 14:06
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unknown posted:They are ships - a bit big to fit on a truck. People used to move ships by land just by dragging them around over logs. Surely since then there have been some improvements to the process.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:07
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I don't really think people appreciate the size of military submarines. A kilo sub is 70 meters and displaces 2350 tons.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:10
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Paladinus posted:People used to move ships by land just by dragging them around over logs. Surely since then there have been some improvements to the process. People did this in an age where ships were about the size and mass of a semi-trailer truck and had to be moved maybe hundreds of meters or a few kilometers over flat terrain. A kilo-class submarine with empty ballast tanks weighs about 2300 tons, and the shortest land-route through Russia-friendly territory to the Black Sea is, eye-balling google maps, several hundred kilometers and crosses multiple mountain ranges.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:13
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Paladinus posted:A very silly question, but I never thought about it that way. Is there really no way to move a submarine long distance by land? It weighs thousands of tons and is 70 meters long. Suppose you found a big enough boat trailer and a straight enough road, it ironically couldn't cross any bridges. There are smaller subs in existence, but they're not nearly as capable. Incidentally Russia also has the Volga canal system that allows river access from Black Sea to the Baltic. But the dimensions of the locks and waterways limit the size of warships, and in the case of the Kilo class it's too shallow. Yes, even for running on surface
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Sep 14, 2023 14:18
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It does make a good interview question. How would you move an 80m submarine across 500kms of Russia?
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Sep 14, 2023 14:18
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I'm not even sure the heaviest duty railways in the world in the Pilbara could handle that job, given the length that tonnage is compressed into, they currently max out at 180t or so of Iron Ore per carriage
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Sep 14, 2023 14:27
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Tehdas posted:It does make a good interview question. How would you move an 80m submarine across 500kms of Russia? Massive zeppelin like the house from Up. The relevant number isn't the size, it's the weight. 2350 tons.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:29
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As I said, it was a very silly question. Thanks for humouring me.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:29
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Tehdas posted:It does make a good interview question. How would you move an 80m submarine across 500kms of Russia? In pieces?
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Sep 14, 2023 14:30
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Russia does have pretty significant inland waterways and they moved some smaller patrol boats into black sea. But fitzcarraldoing a Kilo-class over the Urals is not happening.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:31
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Build a bigger cargo plane, fill it with water, put the sub there, fly the plane to another location. Easy.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:40
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Sep 14, 2023 14:40
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Gervasius posted:But fitzcarraldoing a Kilo-class over the Urals is not happening. Dive under the continent, duh
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Sep 14, 2023 14:43
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Tehdas posted:It does make a good interview question. How would you move an 80m submarine across 500kms of Russia? Build a huge canal, it'll only take a few decades.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:43
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Tehdas posted:It does make a good interview question. How would you move an 80m submarine across 500kms of Russia? A tracked vehicle like the Space Shuttle crawler-transporter could do it, but theyd have a max speed of one kilometer per hour and youd need to have built a freeway from point to point. It would be a national endeavor. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crawler-transporter Kaal fucked around with this message at 14:56 on Sep 14, 2023 |
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Sep 14, 2023 14:54
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You could also put the faces of putin and his crew up there cause a bunch have gotten marked off already.
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Sep 14, 2023 14:56
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Kaal posted:A tracked vehicle like the Space Shuttle crawler-transporter could do it, but theyd have a max speed of one kilometer per hour and youd need to have built a freeway from point to point. It would be a national endeavor. Maybe you could Fitzcarraldo it? 
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Sep 14, 2023 14:59
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Paladinus posted:A very silly question, but I never thought about it that way. Is there really no way to move a submarine long distance by land? Turkiye is digging an alternate channel beside the Bosporus straight to allow them to circumvent the Montreux Convention, that goes through land but otherwise, submarines are 2,000 tonne vessels that are designed to be supported by water. Moving them by land any (as in more than a km) sort of distance over land would be a monstrous undertaking. Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 15:07 on Sep 14, 2023 |
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Sep 14, 2023 15:03
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Scratch Monkey posted:Maybe you could Fitzcarraldo it? this movie was so nuts. e,c:  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/russias-vladimir-putin-praises-elon-musk-as-an-outstanding-person.html well musk keeps cultivating that relationship with russia for some reason. LifeSunDeath fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Sep 14, 2023 |
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Sep 14, 2023 15:05
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DanTheFryingPan posted:Build a bigger cargo plane, fill it with water, put the sub there, fly the plane to another location. Easy. Some mid-level Russian military logistics guy: "Hurry, we must procure the largest cargo plane in the world." Some VDV guy who landed at Hostomel: "Uhh, ehrm."
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Sep 14, 2023 15:30
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https://youtu.be/5pFgbGPwcSk?si=Ro9rt2AQ5rqI27iM Another one.
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Sep 14, 2023 15:38
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I wonder if Ukraine will refloat the Hetman now that there isn't a danger of it being captured. Assuming it's been underwater for a year and a half it may not be worth it.
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Sep 14, 2023 15:50
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Donkringel posted:I wonder if Ukraine will refloat the Hetman now that there isn't a danger of it being captured. Assuming it's been underwater for a year and a half it may not be worth it. it would be a waste of resources right now
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Sep 14, 2023 17:33
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Kchama posted:Considering that Kusti Salm seems to be the source of the numbers in the article I read as well, I don't think he's a particularly trustworthy figure to quote. For one thing, why is he using such wrong numbers? Since as I noted, he seems to be comparing 'fancy' European shells (while saying 'Western' to imply that this is true of all of NATO) to basic Russian shells, as basic European shells cost 800 bucks compared to Russian's basic shells costing 600 dollars. The New York Times is a reputable newspaper, Im sure they will have checked their facts and to claim that the NYT is pushing propaganda is a bit silly. Is the NYT supposed to be pro-Russian now? I dont think so. Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesnt make a big difference.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:03
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:The New York Times is a reputable newspaper, Im sure they will have checked their facts and to claim that the NYT is pushing propaganda is a bit silly. Is the NYT supposed to be pro-Russian now? I dont think so. Give it a rest already.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:05
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesn’t make a big difference. You don't really know what you are talking about and it's been discussed previously in thread somewhat at length. If you are still oblivious you can figure it out pretty easily with googling or go ask one of the various military equipment threads. You are basically making a nonsensical argument akin to saying an unrifled musket ball is the same as a "fancy" rifled round because the both go boom and are fired out of guns. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Sep 14, 2023 |
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Sep 14, 2023 18:14
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesnt make a big difference.  To give an actual answer to a bad faith question, if there's one thing that this war has proven yet again is that actually having those fancy toys does make a difference. Yeah putting GPS chips on artillery shells seems wasteful when you first hear about it but hey, turns out it means in the long run you are way more accurate with your fire which then means far less wear and tear on barrels and makes "scoot and shoot" way easier.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:24
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It's not clear where the $5k/shell figure comes from but one thing to bear in mind is the concept of marginal cost. The US Army has standing procurement deals for 155mm shells at something like $800/pop, but since 2022 NATO has been trying to spin up new production and that adds upfront costs that means that those "extra" shells cost more per unit than what NATO was getting out of its existing production capacity. There have definitely been emergency rush orders going through to produce the same shells at $2-3k/pop, which would come down over time if they keep getting produced at that rate. So there are individual shells getting sent to Ukraine that someone paid $3k for (or at least paid $3k to replace), but the average cost per unit is much lower. I have not seen any sources citing $5k-per-shell production contracts though. Average cost is another whole area of confusion, because a lot of military shipments to Ukraine include mixed deliveries of fully guided, unguided, and unguided ammo retrofitted with rudimentary guidance, all of which differs in cost by orders of magnitude but often gets reported in terms of total or average cost. There have definitely been ammo delivery packages sent to Ukraine that cost $5k per shell on average because they included Excalibur and PGK rounds, even if those made up a relatively small portion of the total package.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:25
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Might need to update that scoresheet already: https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1702359902016950683?s=20 The great irony with the Black Sea fleet being sunk is it's existence is one of the major reasons Russia started all this back in 2014, and now it's being deleted because they doubled down on their expansion. Ukraine probably wouldn't have tried attacking it for years if Russia stayed with the frozen Donbass version of this conflict. Get wrecked Puts
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Sep 14, 2023 18:30
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesnt make a big difference. It simultaneously makes a big difference and potentially no difference with where it falls on that spectrum being dependent on how well the AFU can leverage the capabilities of precision munitions with what they are trying to accomplish. One thing that precision guided shells and cluster munitions (among other things) have been able to do is to force the Russians to be much more careful in how they use their own artillery. Because of the fact that the Ukrainians are largely winning the counter battery fight, the Russians have found it difficult to keep their weapons within range to fire without taking losses. It is possible that even the very modest gains made by the Ukrainians would have been impossible to take and or hold if the Russians were able to sustain artillery fires with no pushback like in the summer of 2022. Also having smart shells or high quality cluster munitions may mean that you simply need fewer shells on target to match the effectiveness of "dumb" shells. If it takes the Russians several hundred shells to properly suppress or destroy an infantry platoon and its position but Western artillery can do so with dozens of shells instead, then shell disparity is largely irrelevant. Instead it is beneficial because you haul around fewer shells making your logistical footprint smaller and less vulnerable to strikes and your weapons take less time to complete the mission allowing them to escape potential counter fire attacks from the Russians who can potentially respond within 3 minutes of first detection of Ukrainian outbound artillery. But you need a lot of supporting assets to activate these advantages like drones or competent local commanders to call good targets and shells alone aren't going to evict the Russians off Ukrainian soil.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:33
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:The New York Times is a reputable newspaper, Im sure they will have checked their facts and to claim that the NYT is pushing propaganda is a bit silly. Is the NYT supposed to be pro-Russian now? I dont think so. Journalistic Integrity? In this century?
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Sep 14, 2023 18:40
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Telsa Cola posted:You don't really know what you are talking about and it's been discussed previously in thread somewhat at length. If you are still oblivious you can figure it out pretty easily with googling or go ask one of the various military equipment threads. I'm only being pedantic here because this is a post about accurately discussing weapons, but it's the barrel that's rifled, not the projectile fired from it.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:44
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https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1702374567660916919 The ship put up a fight
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Sep 14, 2023 18:45
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I'm not sure I would spend a lot of time figuring out the exact numbers, especially if they're not well sourced, I think the 2 million shells production number has been floating around for a while and I didn't buy it too much when it was originally brought up in this thread. From a quick glance at Kusti Salm's statements in the past, he seems to be pretty pro Ukraine, so I assume he's just trying to drum up even more Western investment. Would he just pull numbers out of his rear end for these statements? I dunno, maybe. At any rate, focusing on the numbers presented in an off hand way seems like the wrong takeaway - just that Western intelligence sees that Russia is weathering the sanctions and maintaining production capability. If the numbers were part of a document with methodology defined, it might be worth more effort to dig into.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:52
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Ukraine is claiming to have taken out a S-300/400 battery in Crimea during the port attack. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897
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Sep 14, 2023 18:54
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Also, what is the difference between a so called fancy shell and a regular one? They still go boom and are fired out of artillery guns, the fact that one is fancy really doesnt make a big difference. This would have been a reasonable opinion about 90 years ago, but by WW2 you already would have been behind the times.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:54
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 12:34 |
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PeterWeller posted:I'm only being pedantic here because this is a post about accurately discussing weapons, but it's the barrel that's rifled, not the projectile fired from it. To be even more pedantic, there are rifled shotgun slugs, since shotguns have smooth bores.
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Sep 14, 2023 18:56
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