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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



A bad running mate can just drag everything down like how Sarah Palin was a huge weight on the McCain campaign for the bulk of 2008.

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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Riptor posted:

Seems to me the way to do the switch would be to have a Cabinet member resign, nominate Harris in their place and get her confirmed, then pick a new person for VP

Still not great, but better than just dumping her off the ticket

Apparently there is nothing legally preventing a President from nominating a VP for a cabinet position other than convention, it's really weird every VP isn't given a cabinet post de rigeur. Unclear why America insists the next in line to the big chair can do nothing but break tie votes in the senate.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Killer robot posted:

Polling keeps showing that people want someone younger and different in the abstract but when you ask who you get dead air. Most of those saying it the loudest wanted an even older guy last time, or the guy that was almost as old but clearly in worse shape. It doesn't seem like a terribly serious suggestion and I doubt Biden's age will hurt him more in 2024 than it did in 2020.



Yes, because what normie Democrats want is a 50-year old version of Joe Biden.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
dem bench seems pretty weak right now. we got what, maybe newsom and whitmer? so even though i dont think harris is great and wish we did have a better option, she's also not sarah palin and there doesn't seem to be any obvious replacement anyways -- for her or biden

single-mode fiber
Dec 30, 2012

Velocity Raptor posted:

Wait, what is this about mortgage equity withdrawal by the upper-middle class? This is the first time I've seen this put forward as a cause to the inflation. (Not doubting, genuinely curious about what that's about).

What even is revenge spending? I've honestly never heard that term before.

Yeah like others noted, the 'revenge spending' is a little bit of speculative editorializing from the author but it's basically "retail therapy," a concept with which I'm sure you're familiar, in response to the pandemic. My parents, for example, their house was already paid off so they didn't get an enormous windfall. But, once the various travel restrictions started getting lifted, the next time they went on vacation, they bought first class plane tickets, and they have never, ever flown first class in their entire lives. Obviously this isn't an enormous expenditure, but these are very spendthrift people, and a microcosm of how even a slight disruption in the constant flow of treats was very upsetting to many American minds.

As far as the size of the mortgage equity withdrawals, yes they're quite large, and most importantly, almost entirely accrued to people for whom it became entirely discretionary income (i.e. they had high-income jobs which easily transitioned to remote work so they never got laid off, they already have at least 1 house, etc.). In aggregate, it ended up being a little over a trillion dollars, larger than the entirety of the PPP loan program itself (which we all know was an additional source of fraudulent liquid cash, which itself is also going to have a high accrual overlap with this group). Some articles are coming out in the aftermath but of course they stop short of saying "this is the biggest cause of inflation," or even "this is a cause of inflation," but they put it in terms like "supportive of consumption spending."

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20220425-trends-mortgage-refinancing-activity

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/05/the-great-pandemic-mortgage-refinance-boom/

Really the 3rd image of this post, showing equity withdrawals segmented by income percentiles, tells the story the best, in my opinion

https://twitter.com/NewRiverInvest/status/1585566853060886528



The bottom half of mortgage owners took the opportunity to pay down their existing debt. The top half of them used it towards a spending bonanza, whether that was a new car, jet ski, outdoor patio, vacation, the stock market, you name it.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

gurragadon posted:

That tweet summary is really bad, there's no pause where Pelosi tries to think after the questions, and it paraphrases from the beginning and end like it was a different conversation. Pretty surprising for a minute long clip. The 6% thing was to explain how good she is at politics, going from 6% to winning, not to say she sucks.

I feel like Pelosi doesn't support Harris as VP pick, but the tweet makes it seem like she is arguing against Harris while all she really is doing is just kind of staying out of it.

I would expect nothing else from a Breitbart Republican posting hot takes on a reactionary platform. People need to learn how to filter their media sources.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Neurolimal posted:

In general, the trend outside Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia/Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan appears to be that if you lived during the USSR, you very likely consider it to have been significantly better than the current situation, whereas if you were born afterwards you're more likely to consider it The Dark Ages.

Unsurprisingly, people who lived under Reagan also disproportionally think he was the best American president. In fact, by 2004 his approval ratings were higher than during his presidency.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/11887/ronald-reagan-from-peoples-perspective-gallup-poll-review.aspx

In 2011 he was even more popular than Lincoln.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/146183/americans-say-reagan-greatest-president.aspx

The same's already happened to Bush Jr. thanks to Trump and he's viewed more favourably than when he left office.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/22/politics/george-w-bush-favorable-poll/index.html

I also really like the time when I was young, my parents were still married, and I only had to worry about school and pogs, so I don't blame them.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

single-mode fiber posted:

Yeah like others noted, the 'revenge spending' is a little bit of speculative editorializing from the author but it's basically "retail therapy," a concept with which I'm sure you're familiar, in response to the pandemic. My parents, for example, their house was already paid off so they didn't get an enormous windfall. But, once the various travel restrictions started getting lifted, the next time they went on vacation, they bought first class plane tickets, and they have never, ever flown first class in their entire lives. Obviously this isn't an enormous expenditure, but these are very spendthrift people, and a microcosm of how even a slight disruption in the constant flow of treats was very upsetting to many American minds.

As far as the size of the mortgage equity withdrawals, yes they're quite large, and most importantly, almost entirely accrued to people for whom it became entirely discretionary income (i.e. they had high-income jobs which easily transitioned to remote work so they never got laid off, they already have at least 1 house, etc.). In aggregate, it ended up being a little over a trillion dollars, larger than the entirety of the PPP loan program itself (which we all know was an additional source of fraudulent liquid cash, which itself is also going to have a high accrual overlap with this group). Some articles are coming out in the aftermath but of course they stop short of saying "this is the biggest cause of inflation," or even "this is a cause of inflation," but they put it in terms like "supportive of consumption spending."

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20220425-trends-mortgage-refinancing-activity

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/05/the-great-pandemic-mortgage-refinance-boom/

Really the 3rd image of this post, showing equity withdrawals segmented by income percentiles, tells the story the best, in my opinion

https://twitter.com/NewRiverInvest/status/1585566853060886528



The bottom half of mortgage owners took the opportunity to pay down their existing debt. The top half of them used it towards a spending bonanza, whether that was a new car, jet ski, outdoor patio, vacation, the stock market, you name it.

I'm sure cheap credit via cashing out home equity probably helped raise spending and inflation a tiny bit, but based on the fact that inflation has fallen from 9% to a little over 3% in just a year or so and every major country in the world had roughly the same rise in inflation at the exact same time, it seems like the vast majority of it was caused by supply shortages due to the pandemic.

People having more money via direct payments or cashing out their home equity made it easier to keep prices high because people could afford it instead of roughly 1/5th of the country having no income. But, the overall trend is almost definitely due to supply chain issues. Unless Americans withdrawing their housing equity caused inflation in every other major country in the world at the exact same time.

Things like large cash payments, the lack of other options to spend money driving demand into the few places where you still could, and cashing out home equity likely all contributed to inflation. But, the central cause was almost certainly the supply chain issues. Throwing kindling on your burning house definitely makes it burn a little faster, but the kindling is only going to make a major impact if the house is already on fire. The supply chain issues were the fire.

gurragadon posted:

That tweet summary is really bad, there's no pause where Pelosi tries to think after the questions, and it paraphrases from the beginning and end like it was a different conversation. Pretty surprising for a minute long clip. The 6% thing was to explain how good she is at politics, going from 6% to winning, not to say she sucks.

I feel like Pelosi doesn't support Harris as VP pick, but the tweet makes it seem like she is arguing against Harris while all she really is doing is just kind of staying out of it.

I think VP picks could have some influence in this election and Harris isn't very inspiring to many people. Both likely candidates are very old so people would be thinking about the replacement a bit more than usual. I don't know if it would tip the election or anything but I think it will be more important than normal.

Yes, I mentioned that the summary in the tweet is not very good and this is why I included the entire clip.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Sep 14, 2023

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

it seems like the vast majority of it was caused by supply shortages due to the pandemic.

I’ve seen Krugman say that was 20%. That said he was on side that was downplaying supply chain concerns as transitory when he said that.

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

I feel like Dems are damned if they do and damned if they don't with VP.

If they keep Kamala, they're saddled with an unpopular and ineffective sack of anvils. Her checking a lot of the right idpol boxes isn't going to outweigh her negatives.

On the other hand though, if they drop her, that's going to be seen as a sign of weakness and will absolutely be used as a talking point in the Generals.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

the_steve posted:

I feel like Dems are damned if they do and damned if they don't with VP.

If they keep Kamala, they're saddled with an unpopular and ineffective sack of anvils. Her checking a lot of the right idpol boxes isn't going to outweigh her negatives.

On the other hand though, if they drop her, that's going to be seen as a sign of weakness and will absolutely be used as a talking point in the Generals.

I think you're definitely right, but I doubt the VP really matters much unless they are a major disgrace/distraction.

The main issue is that Biden is old and that is why there is a focus on the VP. Trump is only 2.5 years younger than Biden and will also be in his 80's during his second term, but isn't perceived as old as Biden. I don't think it is really about the VP and Biden just needs to fight the attacks or perception that he is too old (Reagan had the same problem, but was able to turn it around) or discover the fountain of youth.

It's not just the number because Trump is almost the same age and the stuff that comes out of Trump's mouth is absolutely much more incoherent and addled than Biden. But, we just sort of accept that Trump is incoherent and confused all the time + he seems loud and vigorous. So, the perception is definitely the bigger issue than the specific number or who the VP is. Swapping someone out will just cause more drama for no real benefit to anyone. Biden is either going to shake off the concerns about being old or he isn't, and I doubt his VP makes any difference in how that plays out.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Sep 14, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
Kamala Harris has the same approval rating as Biden. She's had the same approval rating for the whole presidency. The reasons she gets treated by media (not voters) as a millstone around Biden's neck are impossible to disentangle from the fact that she :airquote:checks idpol boxes:airquote:.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Sep 14, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

James Garfield posted:

Kamala Harris has the same approval rating as Biden. She's had the same approval rating for the whole presidency. The reasons she gets treated by media (not voters) as a millstone around Biden's neck are impossible to disentangle from the fact that she :airquote:checks idpol boxes:airquote:.

Harris has always polled lower than Biden. It wasn't until Biden's polls started to sink during the inflation and Afghan withdrawal that he started to match her. Even now, she has a slightly lower approval rating than him according to 538.

There has always been a gap (that varied a bit in size) between her approval and Biden's. She also does worse in general election polls than Biden.

Whether that is partially because of her identity boxes or whether it is fair, I don't know. But, it does exist.

Edit: The most recent NBC news poll I can find that compares both of them is from two months ago and it had Biden at -10 net approval and Harris at -17 net approval.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Sep 14, 2023

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Harris has always polled lower than Biden. It wasn't until Biden's polls started to sink during the inflation and Afghan withdrawal that he started to match her. Even now, she has a slightly lower approval rating than him according to 538.

There has always been a gap (that varied a bit in size) between her approval and Biden's. She also does worse in general election polls than Biden.

Whether that is partially because of her identity boxes or whether it is fair, I don't know. But, it does exist.

Edit: The most recent NBC news poll I can find that compares both of them is from two months ago and it had Biden at -10 net approval and Harris at -17 net approval.

Per 538 Harris is (insignificantly) above Biden in net approval, the gap is because fewer people had an opinion. Harris actually went negative on the tracker after Biden, not that it matters when the gap between them is as small as it is.

It isn't even like people in 2016 saying Clinton's approval rating was only low because of right wing media, the right wing media already hates Biden. Opinion columnists are trying to make her an extremely polarizing figure because they miss that aspect of Trump and Biden is a boring white guy.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Sep 14, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Finally, actual policy has been released in the 2024 race.

This has been a shockingly policy-less race. This is a major policy release, but unfortunately it is from Tim Scott.

Good on Scott for at least providing some details - even though some of them are silly. I like his pledge to appoint a farmer to run the Department of Agriculture.

Highlights:

- He's one of the rare candidates to actually mention housing in a presidential platform.
- Most of these are pretty bad ideas, but he is at least coming up with a few unique/new ideas.
- Interesting seeing him try to wedge himself in between 1999 "compassionate conservatives" and modern "MAGA Republicans."
- He has a lot of gimmicks involving restructuring the federal government - including weird ones that nobody was asking for, like moving the Department of Energy to Tennessee.
- Lots of random bible verses just listed as policies.
- Requiring things like rent and phone bills be included as positive points in credit scores to allow renters to build credit is a decent idea.
- Surprisingly, this is the first Republican tax plan actually released so far.

https://twitter.com/PTBwrites/status/1702336209086009576

quote:

1. Cutting Spending, Cutting Government, and Cutting Taxes

I will stop the runaway socialist spending, shrink the government, and help you keep more of your money
in your pocket.

Cutting spending and government:

● The Biden Democrats have made us a nation of borrowers.

o Biden borrows — billions, no, trillions of dollars.

o The deficit is going to double this year alone. We aren’t at war; we aren’t in a pandemic; we
just have the Biden Democrats in charge.

o The fastest-growing category of federal spending is going to be interest on the national
debt.

o In five years, we’ll be spending more on interest than on the entire U.S. military.

o Inflation and interest rates have families drowning in record-high debt — on credit cards, car
loans, and student loans.

o Prov. 22:7: “The borrower is slave to the lender.”

● I will immediately cut non-defense discretionary spending back to the pre-pandemic
baseline.

o Just a first step — but this alone will save us trillions of dollars, with interest!

o Liberals want to turn a temporary pandemic into permanent socialism. I won’t let them.

● I will lead the charge for a Balanced Budget Amendment.

o “Don’t spend what you don’t have.” If that rule was good enough for my granddaddy, it’s
good enough for D.C.

● I will create a 10th Amendment Commission that gives power back to the states.

o Five of the 10 highest-earning counties in America surround Washington D.C.5
o We have concentrated wealth and power because the federal government does too many
things the Founding Fathers never intended.

o I will create a 10th Amendment Commission of our best Governors to cut back the federal
overreach and send power back to the states.

● I will replace automatic raises with federal bureaucrats for merit pay and make it easier to fire the
underperformers.

o See the approach in the Republican Study Committee’s new budget proposal.
● I will move cabinet agency staff out of Washington D.C. and push money and power back into the
Heartland.

o Put most of the Dept. of Energy in Tennessee where we actually research nuclear power.
o Put most of the Dept. of Agriculture in Iowa and let a farmer run it.

● And when bank CEOs ask for a taxpayer bailout, they’re going to have to use their big bonus
check to reimburse the American people first.
o See my RECOUP Act (2023).

Cutting taxes:

● I will stop the Biden Tax Hike and make your personal and family tax cuts permanent.
o The 2024 election will be pivotal for your tax bill. You can’t afford to have the Democrats in
power when your tax cuts are on the chopping block.

o I wrote the legislation that cut your family’s taxes in 2017. As President, I will make them
permanent. Your money belongs to you, not the IRS.

● I will sign new pro-life and pro-family tax cuts to support moms, dads, and kids.
o I will cut taxes for expectant moms, even before they give birth. See my Child Tax Credit for
Pregnant Moms Act (2023).

o I will cut taxes for adoptive parents. See my cosponsored Adoption Tax Credit Refundability
Act (2023).
● I will kill the death tax once and for all and protect family farms.

o Joe Biden wants to expand the death tax and turn it into a death sentence for too many
family farms (by killing “stepped-up basis”).

o I won’t just protect stepped-up basis, I will bury the death tax altogether. It’s unfair, immoral,
double taxation. See my cosponsored Death Tax Repeal Act (2023).

● I will cut taxes and paperwork for small businesses, hourly workers, and teachers.

o I will make the 20% pass-through deduction permanent. See my cosponsored Main Street Tax
Certainty Act (2023).

o I’ll level the playing field for more than a million small businesses — such as barbers,
manicurists, and stylists. See my Small Business Tax Fairness and Compliance Simplification
Act (2023).

o I will open up the Educator Tax Deduction to pre-K teachers and athletics coaches. See my
co-sponsored SEED Act (2021) and my S. 3411 (2021).

2. Get America Working

I will restore the culture of hard work that built America by rebuilding the skilled trades, strengthening
work requirements with Welfare Reform 2.0, and defending the dignity of every job.

● I will rebuild a culture that motivates, inspires, and requires work.
o We have millions of missing workers. The work rate for prime-age men has plummeted.
Able-bodied adults are sitting on the sidelines and Biden’s socialist spending lets it happen.
o I will honor and celebrate the American workers who literally build our future. Who build
things, make things, grow things, and fix things. Who take a shower at the end of the day
instead of the beginning of the day.

o My mom’s example taught me there is dignity in all work. 16-hour days. Nurse’s aide.
o If you’re able-bodied, in America, you work!
o The radical left says hard work is a curse, not a blessing. That’s the opposite of what my
Bible says — and what my life proves.

● I will restore the dignity of work through stronger work requirements and Welfare Reform 2.0.
o Joe Biden’s first major bill was paying Americans a bonus not to work.
o The far left wants to use the temporary pandemic of COVID to create a permanent epidemic
of socialism.

o The number of men on SSDI disability has more than doubled in our lifetime. Billions of
dollars in food stamps go to able-bodied, working-age adults without kids.
o It’s been more than 25 years since Welfare Reform. I will sign Welfare Reform 2.0:
▪ Eliminate marriage penalties across assistance programs.
▪ Reform the definition of “disability” and update the universe of jobs to match the 21st
century.

▪ Toughen work requirements across all assistance programs (SNAP, TANF, EITC) to
help more people move back into the workforce and up the ladder. And remove the
“broad-based category eligibility” loophole.
▪ Empower Governors and incentivize states to graduate citizens off of welfare rolls, not
keep them on.

● I will stop Biden’s student loan socialism for elites and expand trade school instead.
o Joe Biden wants to make waitresses and mechanics pay off the student loans of
doctors and lawyers who make six figures. Not on my watch. If you take out a loan,
you pay it back!

o I’m going to do the opposite. I will massively expand apprenticeships, career and technical
education, and trade school opportunities…
● I will fight to bridge the wealth gap by supporting increased financial literacy and retirement
security for all hardworking Americas.

o For example: Build on my Advancing Auto-Portability Act of 2022, which became law
and helps millions of workers by cutting red tape when they change jobs.

● I will cut taxes around apprenticeship programs to help Americans learn high-value physical
trades that A.I. can’t replace and elites can’t outsource. See my LEAP Act (2017).

● I will expand workforce development programs and work with Congress to collapse and combine
our piecemeal federal support into a streamlined clearinghouse for the 21st century.
▪ See my Training America’s Workforce Act (2023).

● I will allow Pell Grants to be used for short-term training programs at vocational and
technical schools and community colleges.
o See this concept in the bipartisan JOBS Act (2023).

3. Made in America

It was manufacturing and innovation that made us the richest, strongest nation in history.
American free enterprise has lifted billions of people out of poverty, at home and around the world.
My historic Made in America Plan will rebuild our manufacturing base, reclaim our supply chains, and
create six-figure American jobs. We will lead the world in building, growing, and inventing the future.

● I will eliminate the “Factory Tax” and supercharge American manufacturing — by rewarding
American businesses that BUILD instead of foreign companies that borrow.
o Full expensing (100% bonus depreciation) for new equipment and new investments, paid
for by trimming the subsidy for corporate debt.


o Extend the tax cut to even longer-term investments, so we incentivize the building of
whole new factories, and not just the purchase of machinery that goes in them. See the
concept of the Cruz-McSally CREATE Jobs Act.

● I will give American R&D an historic shot in the arm so we can win the race against China for the
inventions and jobs of the future.
o Reform, simplify, and significantly expand the R&D Tax Credit. Allow smaller businesses
and startups to fully benefit as well. Work with Congress on concepts and implementation
similar to Sen. Young’s American Innovation and Jobs Act (2023).

o From the Atomic Age to the Space Race to the Internet and the Human Genome project,
American companies and consumers have benefitted from big investments in basic science.
But now our R&D funding is below historic levels and China has gone roaring by us.

● I will stop choking off American fossil fuels and ramp up oil and gas development and
permitting.

o Rescind all Biden rules and EAs on energy — Dems’ choking off Keystone XL; canceling
oil and gas leasing in ANWR; power plan rule; tailpipe emissions, Twin Metals rejection.
o Accelerate oil and gas development on federal land and water.
● I will reverse the far left’s war on nuclear energy and sprint towards doubling nuclear energy
production in 10 years.

o Washington liberals killed nuclear energy. They don’t actually want abundant, cheap,
sustainable, low-carbon energy. They want to force the American people to make do with
less for the sake of their radical climate agenda.

o I believe in energy abundance and energy dominance. American power should be so
abundant and so cheap it’s almost free.

o My Administration will take a look at every policy and regulation that touches nuclear
energy — from regulatory reform to potential new tax credits to faster permitting to
creating a National Strategic Reserve of nuclear fuel.

● I will champion ethanol and biofuels and support America’s farmers who are growing our
way toward energy independence.

o I will provide certainty to growers and producers with year-round E15 and support the
Renewable Fuel Standard.

o I’ll stop China from buying up our farmland and stop the IRS from killing family
farms.

● I will take back our vital supply chains from China and the six-figure jobs they’ll bring with them.
o Our nation has lost millions of manufacturing jobs and closed almost 100,000 plants and
factories in just the last quarter-century.

o I will work with Congress to further expand “Made in America” requirements in targeted
sectors that are crucial for our national security, and where government has a thumb on the
scale anyway.

▪ Medical
▪ Microchips
▪ Minerals
▪ Military technologies and defense-industrial base

● I will slash permitting times, cut red tape, and issue national security waivers for vital sectors.
o Require that the federal permitting process may take no longer than the average approval
time from the state government in the state where development would occur.

● I will build on my successful Opportunity Zones program with Opportunity Zones 2.0 —
strengthening the program, expanding more into rural America, and investing in the most vital
sectors that will define our future.
o Consider concepts similar to Ferguson-Smith Rural Opportunity Zones and Investment Act
(2023).

● I will avoid blunt trade wars with our friends and allies that hurt consumers and set us back in the
mission of isolating China. If we want to isolate China, we need to hold our friends close and have
free and fair trade with our allies that protects both our American jobs and our alliances at the
same time.

● I will always stand with American agriculture and have the backs of our farmers, growers,
ranchers, and producers.

o I will implement comprehensive regulatory reform that includes driving a stake through
the heart of WOTUS and repealing Biden’s other runaway executive orders.

o I will support commonsense reforms to the Endangered Species Act that our farmers and
ranchers are crying out for; roll back Biden overreach; and stand with our Midwest and
Western states — so radical environmentalists can’t hold hostage our food and water.

● I will tackle Biden's drug cost and nursing shortage crisis with commonsense reforms to make
drugs and healthcare more affordable and expand choice.

● I will tackle housing affordability and credit-building so the next generations of American families
can have skin in the game and own their futures.

o Make on-time rent payments, phone bill payments, and utility bill payments reflect in
Americans’ credit scores — so the 45 million Americans without credit histories have a
chance to prove responsibility and move toward homeownership. See my Credit Access
and Inclusion Act (2021).

o Comprehensive reform of federal housing policy to increase homebuilding and housing
supply, improve quality of life for families, and build accountability and reforms into
federal housing programs. See my Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream to
Housing Act (2023).

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Sep 14, 2023

PeterWeller
Apr 21, 2003

I told you that story so I could tell you this one.

Fister Roboto posted:

The Senate doesn't vote to impeach, the House does.

I'm sure you know OP meant that seven Republican senators voted to convict him.

Twincityhacker
Feb 18, 2011

...it's so stupid when someone says that there's "dignity" in 16 hour work days. What dignity is being a sleep depretived, short tempered mess that never sees your family? Not to mention dangerous for everyone around you - if not your job, then commuting to your job.

Anyway, since the bar is in hell because the Flordia Department of Helath just straight up told people under 65 not to get the COVID vax, the Missouri Department of Health saying "get your COVID vax if that's your thing" is... better.

https://twitter.com/HealthyLivingMo/status/1702071127017725981?t=M6boYwtwEQamwAqYabohcg

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

It pisses me off that the only people supporting nuclear power are nutjobs and morons.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Laughing at a Republican proposing a Balanced Budget Amendment in TYOOL 2023

Just a bizarre choice that feels like a throwback to Newt Gingrich

Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
---------------->
Hunter indicted.

Looking forward to right wingers talking about the importance of the federal gov't restricting the ability of citizens to keep and bare arms.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Blue Footed Booby posted:

It pisses me off that the only people supporting nuclear power are nutjobs and morons.

There's some subsidies for people who get their energy from nuclear plants and money to deploy a test site for a "modular nuclear power plant" in the IRA. However, I am not steeped in the details of nuclear engineering enough to know whether those modular nuclear plants are ever something that can be cost-effective/work/safe.

Nuclear is in a weird spot because on the left you still have a lot of people from the 60's, 70's, and 80's environmental movements involved who are vehemently anti-nukes and nobody wants to disrupt the coalition over it. Solar, wind, and electric have much bigger influence on the modern environmental movement as well, which means they are okay with pushing aside alternatives.

On the right, nuclear has some support, but it isn't such a weird lifestyle brand or the business keeping some places alive like coal is and doesn't have the organizing or money that petroleum and natural gas have on the right.

Both sides also aren't crazy about how expensive nuclear is to get up and running and nobody wants to be the brave soul to be the first person to get out there on a platform of attempting to explain to the 60% of Americans who have concerns about nuclear power why they are wrong and their beliefs are dumb.

FlamingLiberal posted:

Laughing at a Republican proposing a Balanced Budget Amendment in TYOOL 2023

Just a bizarre choice that feels like a throwback to Newt Gingrich

A lot of Scott's platform seems like a weird mish-mash of 1999 "compassionate conservative" ideas and modern Republican Trump-ism.

A balanced budget amendment is basically the "FREE SQUARE" for politicians to posture about the debt/deficit by proposing something that sounds good, but is a terrible policy that will never be implemented.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp
Nuclear power did just get a minor win in Michigan, a nuclear plant that shut down earlier this year looks like it may be starting up again: https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2023/09/palisades-nuclear-plant-to-restart-in-deal-with-power-co-op.html

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
There might be some more actual policy today.

Biden is giving a speech that is supposed to be a preview of his 2024 economic plan later today at Prince George’s Community College in Largo, Maryland.

The White House description of it is "a major economic address today laying out the next chapter of the Bidenomics vs. MAGAnomics contrast: What’s at stake for the American people in debates about the federal budget."

They are sending a memo with new policies to congressional Democrats to get them to hype them/support them:

quote:

Ahead of his speech, White House senior adviser Anita Dunn sent out a memo arguing that the contrast between Bidenomics and MAGAnomics will "define the fall budget debates." The memo would be sent to congressional Democrats and other allies, the official said.

"House Republicans have understandably been reluctant to tout the MAGAnomics Budget — but the White House is going to spend much of this fall doing it for them," Dunn said in the memo.

The only details so far are:

- Criticizing "Republican plans to cut taxes for the wealthy, cut social security, Medicare and Medicaid, and raise costs for hardworking families."

- "A plan to restructure the U.S. economy by investing in infrastructure, green energy and local manufacturing and building on the bases laid in the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2021, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill of 2021."

- A plan to "push companies to share more profits with workers."

- New executive actions to strengthen unions and "build an economy from the bottom up and middle out instead of trickle down"

Most of it seems to be a bunch of messaging jargon, but there are a couple promises of specific new policies. It will be interesting to see what they are. I doubt he is going to get super specific in the speech, but the memo and info afterwards should have detailed information.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/politics/joe-biden-economic-speech/index.html

Byzantine
Sep 1, 2007

The idea of Biden keeling over and leaving us with President Harris has me scared beyond anything else. Whatever good you think the Dems have done or will do is forfeit if they're forced to run her against Trump.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Uglycat posted:

Hunter indicted.

Looking forward to right wingers talking about the importance of the federal gov't restricting the ability of citizens to keep and bare arms.

Charges are for making false statements on a federal firearm form and possessing a firearm while a prohibited person (drug user).

quote:

Count One accuses Hunter Biden of lying on an ATF form when he bought the gun, by falsely swearing that he wasn’t addicted to illegal drugs or using illegal drugs.

Count Two accuses Hunter Biden of lying to the federally licensed gun dealer in Wilmington where he bought the gun. The alleged lie was related to the same sworn statement on the ATF form.

Count Three accuses Hunter Biden of illegally possessing the gun while using drugs or being addicted to drugs, which is a federal crime. He possessed the gun for 11 days in 2018.

He is almost certainly getting convicted, but he also has a very good chance of succeeding if he appeals it to the Supreme Court on the basis that it is unconstitutional under the Supreme Court's recent ruling to deprive someone of their second amendment right due to drug usage when they haven't been charged or convicted of a crime. It's already been struck down by the 5th circuit (although that has no direct bearing on Hunter's case unless he appeals and they don't strike it down as well, which will trigger a Supreme Court case).

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/poli...k&utm_term=link

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Sep 14, 2023

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Finally, actual policy has been released in the 2024 race.

This has been a shockingly policy-less race. This is a major policy release, but unfortunately it is from Tim Scott.

Good on Scott for at least providing some details - even though some of them are silly. I like his pledge to appoint a farmer to run the Department of Agriculture.

Highlights:

- He's one of the rare candidates to actually mention housing in a presidential platform.
- Most of these are pretty bad ideas, but he is at least coming up with a few unique/new ideas.
- Interesting seeing him try to wedge himself in between 1999 "compassionate conservatives" and modern "MAGA Republicans."
- He has a lot of gimmicks involving restructuring the federal government - including weird ones that nobody was asking for, like moving the Department of Energy to Tennessee.
- Lots of random bible verses just listed as policies.
- Requiring things like rent and phone bills be included as positive points in credit scores to allow renters to build credit is a decent idea.
- Surprisingly, this is the first Republican tax plan actually released so far.

https://twitter.com/PTBwrites/status/1702336209086009576

What’s so deeply fascinating here is the “Made in America” section…basically describes a bunch of Biden priorities save probably being slightly more petroleum friendly? Like, it’s going to be really hard to offer those as a critique of Biden in a meaningful way.

Otherwise, this is just like literally the Romney campaign script? I thought we established that Trump’s tax cut was like the first unpopular tax cut ever and people hate when you talk about abortion restrictions when you’re in a position to actually implement them. Trump’s entire campaign was avoiding talking about this stuff in favor of nebulous bullshit from section 3 and things that are pure petty grievance on par with “I’ll make aunt Jemima come back” because the more explicitly Republican priorities get laid out the less they seem to win elections.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

He is almost certainly getting convicted, but he also has a very good chance of succeeding if he appeals it to the Supreme Court on the basis that it is unconstitutional under the Supreme Court's recent ruling to deprive someone of their second amendment right due to drug usage when they haven't been charged or convicted of a crime. It's already been struck down by the 5th circuit (although that has no direct bearing on Hunter's case unless he appeals and they don't strike it down as well, which will trigger a Supreme Court case).

This will become a historical milestone in US politics. GOP is going to try to repeal 2nd Amendment and Dems become the gun rights party :freep:

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005
I think a properly made peanut butter and honey sandwich kind of rules!

Also Mitt was spot on about Russia and the left dunked all over him as a relic of the Cold War.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

TheDisreputableDog posted:

I think a properly made peanut butter and honey sandwich kind of rules!

Also Mitt was spot on about Russia and the left dunked all over him as a relic of the Cold War.

I don't think anyone disagreed that Russia was a bad actor on the world stage. This was already after they shelled and invaded Georgia.

It was just a silly answer because there are multiple other things that are bigger threats to the U.S. The question was specifically about the biggest geopolitical challenge to the U.S.

China (economically), Al-Qaeda/terrorism (in terms of lives lost), or Iran/North Korea (nuclear proliferation) were all much more obvious or correct answers.

Russia is definitely a bad actor, but it is a tough argument to put them above China, terrorism, or nuclear proliferation in 2012 when it comes to challenges to America specifically. Russia's geopolitical influence and damage is primarily regional (especially in 2012).

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Sep 14, 2023

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008

TheDisreputableDog posted:

I think a properly made peanut butter and honey sandwich kind of rules!

Also Mitt was spot on about Russia and the left dunked all over him as a relic of the Cold War.

And then Mitt Romney's party got compromised by Russia

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

TheDisreputableDog posted:

I think a properly made peanut butter and honey sandwich kind of rules!

Also Mitt was spot on about Russia and the left dunked all over him as a relic of the Cold War.

Romney's position was we needed yet another massive increase in defense spending because Russia was scary again and had rebuilt its military to or near to its Soviet-era apex, which was a load of poo poo then and even moreso these days as demonstrated by its three-day war in Ukraine now dragging on into its second year. Obama was right to dunk on him because what he was calling for in broader terms was dumb and wrong.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

OctaMurk posted:

dem bench seems pretty weak right now. we got what, maybe newsom and whitmer? so even though i dont think harris is great and wish we did have a better option, she's also not sarah palin and there doesn't seem to be any obvious replacement anyways -- for her or biden

You do not replace an incumbent President or VP on your ticket unless one or both are scandal ridden (Agnew from Nixon administration) or having a serious health crisis. To do so, because of some mediocre polling, would be to concede that they are incompetent or doing a terrible job in the office. The presumption is that an incumbent administration, if competent, deserves another term in office as opposed to taking a chance on a challenger from either party.

A low profile and relatively unpopular VP like Harris might be more possible to replace without an obvious scandal but doing so would require some fancy sleight of hand and have a lot of risks that would probably outweigh any possible benefits (like losing turnout among the constituency that caused her to be pushed onto your ticket in the first place).

As far as viable Dem presidential candidates I would also include Sherrod Brown, Pritzker, Duckworth, Kelly, Klobuchar, Warnock, Warren, Buttigieg among possible others. Just because many of these are not popular in this forum doesn't mean they are not viable candidates for a national ticket. We don't talk about these people much during the reelection campaign of a Dem incumbent because guess what - the contenders with actual potential aren't going to run in this race, for very good reasons, so you are only going to hear from marginal candidates like RFK Jr. and West, or more substantial candidates who are actively trying to raise their profile this season like Newsom.

It's virtually unheard of for a member of the incumbent ticket to drop off the race - LBJ declining to run after Vietnam ran his popularity into the toilet, and Agnew being dumped off the Nixon ticket are the only examples that come to mind. And if LBJ was a Republican President in this era of Fox and right wing media, no way would he decline to run for reelection for any reason.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

TheDisreputableDog posted:

I think a properly made peanut butter and honey sandwich kind of rules!

Also Mitt was spot on about Russia and the left dunked all over him as a relic of the Cold War.

Romney thought we needed to build a WWI ship count to counter Russia's ascending power and now they're losing ships to a country without a navy and being ground down on land by castoff gear that we already had in 2012. Even from a perspective that the US should have given more support for targets of Russian imperial ambition, Romney was a clown appealing to people still dreamy about Cold War militarism.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Mike Pence had a town hall meeting last night and said he would consider having a female Vice President.

Someone from the audience asked him about his famous claim that he would never take a meeting or dine alone with another women who wasn't his wife.

quote:

“How would that work out if you had a female vice president?” Vittert asked.

“That’s a very clever question, it really is,” Pence responded. “Let me say, it’s a promise my wife and I made to one another.”

A woman who works with trans kids asked him about his position on gender affirming care for minors.

quote:

“I hear your heart and I am moved by your emotion. I truly am,” Pence said to social work professor Melissa McCollister, who was visibly upset while delivering her question during a town hall hosted by NewsNation.

Pence has said he would support a national ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors.

“If there was a move in the Congress to protect children from this radical gender ideology and to ban chemical or surgical transition treatment for kids under the age of 18, you bet I would support it.”

“But I hope you also hear my heart on this for me,” he continued. “What adults do in their lives, decisions that they make, including transgender adults is one thing. But for kids under the age of 18 … there’s a reason why we don’t let you drive until you’re 16. In the state of Indiana, you can’t get a tattoo until after you’re 18. You can’t drink until after you’re 21. That’s because we understand that kids don’t fully understand the consequences of their actions."

"I think at the end of the day, look, the idea that we are telling young, impressionable kids, that little boys that they can become girls or little girls that they can become boys. I just think is wrong,” Pence said. “I’d like to put my arm around any one of those young people and just say we love you. But wait, wait until you reach an age of majority. Wait until you have a better idea of who you are. And then live the life that you want to live in this free country.””

The same woman asked him about protecting the rights of trans kids. Pence said that he will protect every American's rights under the law, even if he doesn't agree with their choices, but reiterated he thinks that any gender -affirming care for minors is wrong and they should wait until they are adults.

quote:

“I’m going to see to the protection of every American and the rights of every American,” he said. “But whether that’s that squares with my values or not, and I’m a Bible-believing Christian, I have a particular view on these matters. And, and you have a different view of those, perhaps.”

Pence was asked about Covid and tried to balance between claiming credit for the original Covid vaccines and the current GOP resistance to vaccines.

quote:

“I’m incredibly proud of the fact that with American innovation, we managed to develop three safe and effective vaccines in nine months; vaccines usually take three to five years to approve. And I believe we saved hundreds of lives,” Pence said.

However, Pence cast doubts on the new vaccine booster, claiming it “hasn’t been subjected to tests” common for approving medicines and vaccines.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2024-election/pence-dodges-emotional-question-on-violence-against-trans-people/

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Sep 14, 2023

Combed Thunderclap
Jan 4, 2011



Trazz posted:

And then Mitt Romney's party got compromised by Russia

In fairness they seem entirely content compromising themselves for hordes of angry people with guns and then panicking when they realize Congresspeople don’t actually have government funded security details.

It’s horrendous that Russia or any foreign government is ever permitted any influence on US politics in any way but I’m personally not convinced they’re actually responsible for any large scale problem experienced by US politics or elections.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Manchin has indicated that he either plans to announce that he is going to retire from politics entirely or leave the Democratic party by the end of the year.

Manchin is deciding between:

- Running for re-election as an independent
- Running for President under the "No Labels" party
- Retiring from politics entirely

And hasn't made a final decision yet.

Democrats are pressuring him and strongly encouraging him to not run for President. The DSCC is undecided if they would support him if he ran as an independent, but isn't ruling it out.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1702409895385985303

quote:

Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) is having trouble making a decision about his political future.

During a series of private meetings in the Hamptons over Labor Day weekend, Manchin, his wife, Gayle, and their daughter, Heather, grappled with what the senator should do in 2024, according to two people familiar with the meetings who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. One of the meetings was a private sit-down with former president Bill Clinton.

Manchin and his family said in the meetings that the senator was considering three options: running for reelection in West Virginia as an independent, running for president as a No Labels candidate or retiring from politics. Manchin has not decided what path to pursue, but it seemed clear to those he met with that he is likely to leave the Democratic Party if he chooses to stay in politics.

Manchin declined to comment through a spokesperson.

In some of the meetings, Democratic donors strongly urged Manchin to run for reelection in West Virginia, and Manchin said he believed he could win the race but only if he ran as an independent. Manchin has previously said he has considered leaving the Democratic Party, but people familiar with the meetings said Manchin was more adamant than he has been in public about his need to run as an independent to win.

But Heather Bresch, Manchin’s daughter who was the CEO of a pharmaceutical company, is strongly encouraging her father to run for president with the backing of No Labels, a bipartisan group recruiting a Democrat and a Republican to potentially run on a third-party ticket in next year’s presidential election. Manchin has long supported No Labels, once serving as an honorary co-chair of the group and headlining a July event sponsored by the group in New Hampshire.

Manchin has not ruled out a run for president and has supported No Labels’ message and proposition. No Labels declined to comment.

“We’re here to make sure that the American people have an option,” Manchin said at the No Labels event he headlined in July. “And the option is, can you move the political parties off their respective sides? They’ve gone too far right, too far left.”

In his meeting with Manchin, Clinton made an aggressive pitch that Manchin should absolutely not run for president, warning that his candidacy would only serve to bolster former president Donald Trump, the current front-runner for the Republican nomination. Beyond that, Clinton largely listened as the family discussed the various options, one of the people familiar with the conversation said.

Manchin requested the meeting with Clinton after the senator heard the former president was in the Hamptons at the same time, the person said. Clinton often vacations with his family in the Hamptons, and he and Manchin have been in contact over the years. White House officials had asked Clinton to call Manchin when he was debating whether to support important pieces of legislation earlier in Biden’s presidency.

Clinton’s office declined to comment.

Manchin has served in the Senate since 2010 after his tenure as governor of West Virginia, and he won his last election by just over three points. If he chooses to run for reelection, he is likely to face stiff competition. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) are both running for the Republican nomination in a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020. Manchin has said he is not considering running for governor of West Virginia again.

In a radio interview with a West Virginia radio station in August, Manchin said he has “absolutely” considered becoming an independent.

“I’m thinking seriously what’s best for me; I have to have peace of mind, basically,” he said about the decision. “I’ve been thinking about that for quite some time.”

If Manchin decides to leave the party, he would become the second Democrat to do so in the last year. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) announced in December that she was becoming an independent, though she has not publicly declared whether she will run for reelection in 2024. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is running for the seat as a Democrat.

Democrats are optimistic Manchin will run for reelection in West Virginia, and even if he chooses to run as an independent, most expect the party will back his campaign.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee declined to comment. A national Democratic aide working on Senate races, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said the “party hopes he runs.”

For the first two years of Biden’s presidency, when the Senate was split 50-50, Manchin held outsize influence over policy and personnel matters. He shaped the Inflation Reduction Act, one of Biden’s signature domestic policy accomplishments, after he torpedoed the Build Back Better Act, a more expansive version of the legislation he ultimately agreed to. In recent months, though, Manchin has ratcheted up his criticism of the Biden administration and has opposed an increasing number of Biden nominees. He has been especially angered by the administration’s approach in implementing the Inflation Reduction Act and its climate and energy provisions.

Still Democrats acknowledge that if Manchin does not run for reelection, a Republican is almost certainly going to win the Senate seat, and in the last Congress, Manchin voted with the president nearly 88 percent of the time.

“I believe he has as good a chance as anyone to win reelection as senator in West Virginia,” said Manchin ally Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers. “He has been as good as senator as anyone in West Virginia. He also has a huge role in the United States in the position that he is in. His influence led to the final passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. So I think that the role he plays in the Senate gives him tremendous clout for his state and for the U.S.”

Weingarten added that she does not think Manchin “is going to put himself in the position that would in any way hurt Joe Biden’s prospects for reelection.”

Dr. VooDoo
May 4, 2006


Conservatives saw multiple colors and freaked out, saying the display was disgusting and made them sick and fired the librarians over it. The display was for Autism awareness so :laffo: countdown until all colors but grey are banned because colors might secretly contain The Gay in schools and libraries under GOP control

Xand_Man
Mar 2, 2004

If what you say is true
Wutang might be dangerous


There was a freep thread about a superbowl ad that showed the flight deck of a aircraft carrier and them freaking out about the woke gay sailors in colored jerseys

drat gays and their tyranny over the entire color spectrum

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008

Combed Thunderclap posted:

In fairness they seem entirely content compromising themselves for hordes of angry people with guns and then panicking when they realize Congresspeople don’t actually have government funded security details.

It’s horrendous that Russia or any foreign government is ever permitted any influence on US politics in any way but I’m personally not convinced they’re actually responsible for any large scale problem experienced by US politics or elections.

Both parties got hacked by Russia, it's just that the Democrats had their emails leaked to the public while the GOP's were kept to use as blackmail
Romney is simply too boring to blackmail

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Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
Fellas is it gay to see in color?

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