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Sounds like Azerbaijan might be preparing another attack on Armecia. Videos on social media of columns heading to the border. You have to wonder if with the US making overtures to Armenia and with Russia facing a potential crisis in the caucus if the rumours of Kadyrovs death are true Aliyev has decided this might be his best and last chance. Hopefully not obviously as I think the outcome can only be horribly bleak for Armenia.
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Sep 17, 2023 10:40
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I want to say there were rumors of Kadyrov dying earlier in the war, and it ended up not being true. If Azerbaijan is serious about taking Armenia/a massive chunk of Armenian territory, this is objectively their best time to get on with that, seeing as their security guarantor is locked up in a war that won't be ending until late 2024 at the soonest. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 10:54 on Sep 17, 2023 |
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Sep 17, 2023 10:48
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1703311324313162177?s=46 Elon confirmed poster itt
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Sep 17, 2023 20:40
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The situation in NK has deteriorated further today with further today with sirens and artillery audible in Stepanakerk. In the last moments, Azerbaijan has announced an "anti-terrorist operation." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975
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Sep 19, 2023 12:51
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FishBulbia posted:The situation in NK has deteriorated further today with further today with sirens and artillery audible in Stepanakerk. In the last moments, Azerbaijan has announced an "anti-terrorist operation."
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Sep 19, 2023 14:22
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well now we'll see whether making overtures to the americans was any kind of good idea
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Sep 19, 2023 15:00
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V. Illych L. posted:well now we'll see whether making overtures to the americans was any kind of good idea i dont think russia was ever gonna do anything about it either fact: nobody give a poo poo about armenia. tiny country with no money or resources and lots of neighbor problems.
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Sep 19, 2023 15:13
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V. Illych L. posted:well now we'll see whether making overtures to the americans was any kind of good idea The US won't get involved in Russia's sphere of influence. It would be an escalation and risk nuclear war.
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Sep 19, 2023 15:40
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OctaMurk posted:i dont think russia was ever gonna do anything about it either
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Sep 19, 2023 15:44
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so long as the fighting stays in what is technically recognised as azerbaijani territory the treaty doesn't formally come into play afaik - it's sort of like the falklands war, there aren't any strict, formal treaty obligations in play here. russia's still being a lovely ally though
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Sep 19, 2023 15:55
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Does anyone know if the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are at the UN General Assembly meeting?
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Sep 19, 2023 16:12
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Owling Howl posted:The US won't get involved in Russia's sphere of influence. It would be an escalation and risk nuclear war. That first sentence made me lol a bit but I agree the US won't get involved. Azerbaijan sees an opportunity to act and is taking it.
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Sep 19, 2023 16:17
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Owling Howl posted:The US won't get involved in Russia's sphere of influence. It would be an escalation and risk nuclear war. The US is literally doing military exercises with Armenia right now: https://am.usembassy.gov/eagle-partner/ Nobody's going to get involved over the occupied territory though, but I don't think the Azeris would go into Armenia proper either. Sucks anyway though.
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Sep 19, 2023 16:41
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Owling Howl posted:The US won't get involved in Russia's sphere of influence. It would be an escalation and risk nuclear war. Yeah, that’s why the US stayed completely out of the Ukraine war and isn’t involved in any meaningful way.
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Sep 19, 2023 17:04
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Owling Howl posted:The US won't get involved in Russia's sphere of influence. It would be an escalation and risk nuclear war. ??? Are you aware of the US and NATO stepping up their presence all across Russia's bordering countries? Even Canada is opening an embassy in Yerevan this month.
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Sep 19, 2023 17:06
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I’m pretty sure that’s sarcasm.
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Sep 19, 2023 17:41
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https://twitter.com/NKobserver/status/1704222524299424084 pretty clear this is going to end in mass civilian death if allowed to continue to its conclusion. Pashinyan is doing everything he can to avoid Armenia being dragged into the war, but its going to be difficult as the atrocities become worse. Good thread by the most respected English lang Caucasus expert https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1704227432608219256 https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1704227437876232501 FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Sep 19, 2023 |
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Sep 19, 2023 20:58
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Flights being canceled/rerouted due to Azeri airspace closure for bombings
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Sep 19, 2023 23:31
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My understanding is that in the current balance of forces, Azerbaijan can take as much of Armenia as they feel like trying to hold. This has the potential to get really bad. Armenia dicked around with Azeris in NK et al back when they had the upper hand, but that assuredly doesn't justify the reprisal ethnic cleansing after the last war, never mind what might happen now.
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Sep 20, 2023 00:45
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Google Jeb Bush posted:My understanding is that in the current balance of forces, Azerbaijan can take as much of Armenia as they feel like trying to hold. This has the potential to get really bad. To clarify, Azerbaijan hasn't done anything official against Armenia yet, and Pashinyan has been trying to make it clear that Armenia will not intervene to save NK. That said, the Azeris are going to be looking for any chance to extend the war to Armenia, and the Armenian government will face mounting pressure to do something to protect Armenians in NK. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Sep 20, 2023 |
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Sep 20, 2023 01:48
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The Armenian government is really in an impossible position; they get to either hang back and watch their brethren get massacred and displaced, or enter another war they're likely to lose badly. Holding back is also no guarantee Azerbaijan won't come after Armenia proper next given their genocidal rhetoric and willingness to break agreements.
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Sep 20, 2023 03:16
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adebisi lives posted:The Armenian government is really in an impossible position; they get to either hang back and watch their brethren get massacred and displaced, or enter another war they're likely to lose badly. Holding back is also no guarantee Azerbaijan won't come after Armenia proper next given their genocidal rhetoric and willingness to break agreements. This is precisely why the US is shoring up a presence in the midst of a Russian power vacuum. It is to act as a deterrent. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/blinken-likely-get-involved-armenia-azerbaijan-diplomatic-engagement-us-official-2023-09-19/
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Sep 20, 2023 05:05
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Please united states don't be completely worthless for a changeeeee Is there any reason the US couldn't order the folks training in Armenia to dig down and set up flags in front of Armenian positions like special forces did in Syria?
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Sep 20, 2023 06:19
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adebisi lives posted:The Armenian government is really in an impossible position; they get to either hang back and watch their brethren get massacred and displaced, or enter another war they're likely to lose badly. Holding back is also no guarantee Azerbaijan won't come after Armenia proper next given their genocidal rhetoric and willingness to break agreements. One thing I haven’t been able to find out: did any ethnic Armenians stay in Shusha or the other smaller villages that Azerbaijan conquered in 2020? How are things going for them, or are they completely depopulated? I know in the Lachin Corridor that all ethnic Armenians left (had to leave?) but did not ever hear about the other Armenian-populated territories conquered by Azerbaijan. Also in the ethnically cleansed pre-1992-Azeri-populated areas like Agdam that were liberated by Azerbaijan in 2020, did the refugees from those areas who have been living in Baku for 30 years move back there, or what’s going on with that? Mine clearance for a while?
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Sep 20, 2023 08:24
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I mean Russia historically has, and in fact signed a treaty saying they would do so. Just turns out they have other priorities. Russia sees courting Azerbaijan more important than worrying about Armenia and its policy has been shifting that way for years. Aliyev is watching the poo poo show in Ukraine and probably believes that he can go all in and take NK, it will do wonders for his popularity and it is a realistic goal although I wouldn't want to be an Armenia in the region right now. This is another frozen conflict that is going hot again as Armenia has remained poor and in a hostile neighbourhood while Azerbaijan has increased its wealth massively with oil revenue and has received help from Israel, Turkey and Armenia's largest arms exporter (Russia). Russia's grip on the region has significantly weakened as other regional powers have moved in.
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Sep 20, 2023 09:04
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Ethnic Armenians accept Russia ceasefire plan after Azerbaijan offensive in Nagorno-Karabakhquote:The ceasefire was due to begin at 1 p.m. local time (5 a.m. ET) Wednesday, Nagorno-Karabakh’s presidential office announced.
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Sep 20, 2023 14:04
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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1704487765268713926
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Sep 20, 2023 15:57
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good: well looks like azerbaijan won't be going for the entire enchilada at this precise moment bad: ethnic cleansing, preemptive fleeing of ethnic cleansing bad-to-neutral: look, i'm not going to fault Armenia for going "well we'll lose inevitably and possibly instantly if we fight now, may as well fork NK over in what amounts to a complete surrender"
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Sep 20, 2023 16:55
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Azerbaijan would very much like an excuse to gobble up enough of Armenia proper to connect its main territory with Nakhchivan, so yeah Armenia accepting reality and not jumping into a war 2020 proved they can't hope to win was the only play. They just have to hope the rest of the world gives enough of a poo poo not to let Azerbaijan give them a death by a thousand cuts over the next several years anyway, because Azerbaijan has already made limited attacks on Armenian soil over the last couple years and nobody really blinked.
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Sep 20, 2023 19:01
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https://twitter.com/vermedianetwork/status/1704568127747445012?t=5YUEIWgACDlG4MUOkJ9xdw&s=19 Lots of ominous reports on how the situation is unfolding in Karabakh.
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Sep 20, 2023 22:22
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Really good sign that most parties are hoping this will only be an ethnic cleansing
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Sep 20, 2023 22:27
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In hindsight increasingly looks like Armenia proper not recognizing NK independence was a mistake. Unless they were given an ultimatum by Russia at the time not to do so, there would have been no additional cost and it would have been one of the only things they could have done to meaningfully help NK in the future IE now
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Sep 20, 2023 22:29
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iirc the russians were pushing for a deal where the separatists would have a kind of de-facto independence in a federalised azerbaijani state and got pissed that the armenians didn't agree that this was a good solution. it probably wasn't tenable at all for armenia's internal politics until it was much too late for them to actually implement it. if there's one thing the past decade or so of geopolitics has shown us, it's that it is often a good idea to get out of the game while you're ahead, but that it is also very hard to do
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Sep 20, 2023 22:32
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icantfindaname posted:In hindsight increasingly looks like Armenia proper not recognizing NK independence was a mistake. Unless they were given an ultimatum by Russia at the time not to do so, there would have been no additional cost and it would have been one of the only things they could have done to meaningfully help NK in the future IE now I don't think unilateral recognition would have spared them anything in the long run, there might just have been another war in between the first two, before the balance of power shifted so far in the Azeri direction. The rest of the world still wouldn't have recognized them, and Azerbaijan's wealth and alliances with Turkey and Israel still would have given them a quantitative and qualitative military edge they'd eventually exploit as soon as Russia stopped caring enough to stop them. Since escalating wouldn't have prevented this, the only real alternative would have been pursuing a negotiated end to the crisis before the balance of power shifted so heavily in Azerbaijan's favor, while they still might have been able to keep at least part of the territory, or at least secure guarantees for the people left behind. Now they don't have any leverage at all. I'd say it would be pretty wild to see how the right wing Russia supporters who think Putin's a based defender of Christendom will react to all of this, but with how little coverage it's getting in the news they'll probably never have to deal with the cognitive dissonance at all. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Sep 20, 2023 |
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Sep 20, 2023 23:45
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TNRC/Turkish noise machine is trying to run parallels that Cyprus belongs to them the same way that NK belongs to Azerbaijan. https://www.azernews.az/nation/215031.htm Similarly, the EU is pushing back for this reason on Turkic recognition of TNRC: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/eu-warns-central-asia-of-negative-effects-over-appeasing-turkey-with-north-cyprus/ This doesn't end with NK and Armenia—they'll be going for Cyprus, too.
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Sep 21, 2023 01:03
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FishBulbia posted:It would be comparable to Crimea if the Ukrainian government actually began genociding Russian speakers. NK seceded to defend themselves from genocide. Holy poo poo what is wrong with people
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Sep 21, 2023 03:26
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The hatred in Azerbaijan runs deep. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov Tldr there was some nato sponsored military exercise and an Azeri soldier murdered an Armenian soldier in cold blood, then eventually gets released to Azerbaijan where he gets treated like a national hero.
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Sep 21, 2023 03:52
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FishBulbia posted:It would be comparable to Crimea if the Ukrainian government actually began genociding Russian speakers. NK seceded to defend themselves from genocide.
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Sep 21, 2023 03:54
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Cugel the Clever posted:Or, ya know, the ethnic cleansing of Tatars and Ukrainians the Russians perpetrated in Crimea when they illegally seized the territory. No need to invent hypotheticals. The claim from the Azeris is the opposite though, that it's like Crimea. They're Ukraine in that hypothetical which is dumb and I didn't invent. "This is just like Crimea because our neighbor took over our territory with a phony referedum" ignoring the fact that self determination is a pretty acceptable response to genocide. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Sep 21, 2023 |
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Sep 21, 2023 04:23
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celewign posted:Holy poo poo what is wrong with people I cannot emphasize enough how much they will murder everyone if they are given the chance.
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Sep 21, 2023 04:34
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