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fatherboxx)
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the holy poopacy posted:See also the discussion earlier on the page about Russia trying to attack through their own minefields when Ukraine has guns trained on them. I didn't want to comment since we don't actually know how the Russians have laid out their minefields and what they planned to do in case they needed to counterattack but I agree they will have to address the increasingly obvious gap in artillery as a first step.
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Sep 28, 2023 19:29
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daslog posted:The New York Times has a pretty good interactive today. Good reading for someone like myself that does not have the time to analyze every piece of news that comes out. The takeaways for me are 1: there has been minimal changes in the front lines this year and 2) the Russian strategy is to turn the conflict into a grinding forever war and hope the other side's supporters tire of the conflict. I do have some concerns about how stories like this will affect the American public's willingness to keep backing up Ukraine, but I can't really dispute the fact that we haven't seen much of anything in territory "regained" by the Ukrainian offensive. This might be copium, but it seems like there's a lot of damage being done that will affect Russia's ability to wage offensive war in the short or medium term. Sadly, you can point to that on a sexy map though.
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Sep 28, 2023 19:34
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We do know how they’ve laid out their minefields: millions of mines haphazardly thrown around the frontlines, hundreds of meters or several kilometers deep:
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Sep 28, 2023 19:36
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DTurtle posted:We do know how they’ve laid out their minefields: millions of mines haphazardly thrown around the frontlines, hundreds of meters or several kilometers deep: Maybe it is true. Or maybe it is only true for areas thar they don't intend to counterattack through. Only the Russians know what, if any, their contingencies are. The majority of the Russian forward positions along the Surovikin line remain essentially untested. To generalize from the limited information given seems unwise.
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Sep 28, 2023 19:40
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fatherboxx posted:Regarding the oft-mentioned “battle drugs” – no evidence of deliberately drugged soldiers or rationed stimulators, on the contrary – caught users tend to be sent into high-fatality storm units as punishment: That does a lot to explain the reports of finding drugs on some people particularly in storm units. Addicts pretty much always will successfully find drugs.
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Sep 28, 2023 19:42
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WarpedLichen posted:If the Ukrainian offensive stalls out, I would imagine that some of their current gains would be ceded? I think I read somewhere a while back that the ground is being held right now because of constant offensive movements to push Russian counterattacks back, but I'm not sure if the ground they have is actually defensible. In any case, I see more articles saying that the war is likely going to be a long one, so I hope that reflects the current thinking of military planners and politicians. I don't think its much of a question on 'if' the offensive has stalled out. Reading everything I doubt the war is going to develop in Ukraine's interest anymore and in the long run its a lot easier for the Russians to wait out western interest in the war and Ukrainian fatigue to just get a truce in a few years and a frozen conflict, even if no treaty comes from it a la Korea it could last effectively indefinitely with Russia in control of a large portion of East Ukraine.
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Sep 28, 2023 20:13
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fatherboxx posted:Seeing that this topic was discussed some time ago, here is a great investigation from Russian media Verstka about drug usage and drug business in Russian army https://verstka.media/kak-rossiyskie-soldaty-upotrebliayut-narkotiki-na-voyne?tg_rhash=86cf5f61f61288 That reads like something out of Harry Turtledove's Worldwar series. (Aliens invade during WWII, ginger is addictive to aliens, everybody starts selling them ginger.)
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Sep 28, 2023 20:22
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Drug dealers and sex workers have been following armies around since the beginning of civilization, it's not something that was invented by fiction.
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Sep 28, 2023 20:29
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khwarezm posted:I don't think its much of a question on 'if' the offensive has stalled out. What exactly have you been reading to come to this conclusion?
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Sep 28, 2023 21:02
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khwarezm posted:I don't think its much of a question on 'if' the offensive has stalled out. Beware the anchoring bias effects of current events. People tend to think that wars will proceed in the future as they are proceeding in the present. Historically, this is rarely true. Unlike the Fallout intro, war indeed does change.
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Sep 28, 2023 21:13
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Ynglaur posted:Beware the anchoring bias effects of current events. People tend to think that wars will proceed in the future as they are proceeding in the present. Historically, this is rarely true. Unlike the Fallout intro, war indeed does change. Soldiers’ tendency to draw dicks on everything is the only true constant 
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Sep 28, 2023 21:37
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The count of war related fires on FIRMs is at an all time high for the war right now according to The Economist.
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Sep 28, 2023 22:38
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RockWhisperer posted:The count of war related fires on FIRMs is at an all time high for the war right now according to The Economist. The amount of fire in Kherson Oblast on the left bank is surprising to me. Why are they firing so much artillery over there?
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Sep 28, 2023 23:51
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Tuna-Fish posted:The amount of fire in Kherson Oblast on the left bank is surprising to me. Why are they firing so much artillery over there? there's Russians over there OP
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Sep 29, 2023 00:10
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Not directly related to the war, or well sourced, but an entertaining twitter thread alleging that trashy Russian fiction of the early 2010s was state-sponsored revanchist propaganda. Most of the value is some of the funny premises: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1707407873603428717
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Sep 29, 2023 00:14
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Morrow posted:Not directly related to the war, or well sourced, but an entertaining twitter thread alleging that trashy Russian fiction of the early 2010s was state-sponsored revanchist propaganda. Most of the value is some of the funny premises: read my thread! "1/52" Mmmm hell no
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Sep 29, 2023 00:38
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Icon Of Sin posted:Soldiers’ tendency to draw dicks on everything is the only true constant 
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Sep 29, 2023 00:40
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:No reason for it to be undefended. While it's not as hard as clearing someone elses minefield, the Ukrainians absolutely will take them under direct fire, shell them, everything that you would do with your own minefield. If the enemy is defending positions behind or between your lines, you aren't on the offensive, you're encircled.
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Sep 29, 2023 01:20
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Morrow posted:Not directly related to the war, or well sourced, but an entertaining twitter thread alleging that trashy Russian fiction of the early 2010s was state-sponsored revanchist propaganda. Most of the value is some of the funny premises: There was an article in Novaya Gazeta about this some time ago. https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2023/08/10/match-revansh-s-istoriei However, it's in Russian and not on twitter.
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Sep 29, 2023 01:36
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saratoga posted:If the enemy is defending positions behind or between your lines, you aren't on the offensive, you're encircled. "We've been looking for the enemy for several days now, we've finally found them. We're surrounded. That simplifies our problem of getting to these people and killing them."
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Sep 29, 2023 01:39
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saratoga posted:If the enemy is defending positions behind or between your lines, you aren't on the offensive, you're encircled. Either you’re confused or I am. The Russians placed minefields between themselves and the Ukrainians. If Russia want to attack they will have to do so through their own minefields. The Ukrainians have no incentive to stand off and let the Russians make an orderly advance through said minefields. If they can they will try to block movement through any channels the Russians have left and harass any Russians trying to open new avenues through the mines.
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Sep 29, 2023 02:20
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Russia isn't attacking much, and won't be anytime soon.
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Sep 29, 2023 02:52
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Ya Russia seems to have basically conceded they will not be gaining any more significant ground this war and are planning to win through attrition and waiting out western support.
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Sep 29, 2023 04:04
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what is considered much I guess? from this morningquote:Reuters: Ukrainian troops held off determined attacks on Wednesday by Russian forces trying to regain lost positions on the eastern front, military officials said, while analysts suggested Kyiv’s forces were also making progress in the southern theatre. the russians feeding in the new 25th combined arms army piecemeal into the eastern front suggests that some broad offensive isn't in the cards anytime soon, but local attacks continue
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Sep 29, 2023 04:25
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in other news, a russian finance ministry report released today indicate that russia plans on hiking annual defense expenditures by almost 70% next year, to almost 11 trillion rubles. this would represent over 6% of current russian gdp (as much as those numbers are reliable), which is comparable to american spending percentages under reagan's armament program, or the final years of america's involvement in vietnam. it is noticeably above the percentages the us reached during the height of the war on terror really seems to suggests that the russians see the bottom of their armament stockpile racing towards them
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Sep 29, 2023 04:32
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I'd be curious what kind of effectiveness of any amount of additional war budget is going to do for Russia when their technology isn't appearing to be very effective
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Sep 29, 2023 05:58
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I'd be curious what kind of effectiveness of any amount of additional war budget is going to do for Russia when their technology isn't appearing to be very effective More solid gold toilets
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Sep 29, 2023 06:02
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Not much tech goes into bullets, artillery shells, mines, and the vehicles getting them to the front. That enough seems to be keeping the Ukrainians from rolling them over. Although I can see Putin and has buddies wanting to invest most of it in some Wunderwaffen that will surely end the war.
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Sep 29, 2023 07:15
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I'd be curious what kind of effectiveness of any amount of additional war budget is going to do for Russia when their technology isn't appearing to be very effective Their drones are effective at spotting and killing vehicles, their artillery is effective at killing dudes, their modern tanks are effective at providing a mobile armored gun to the front, their old long range air defence systems are effective at preventing even local air superiority, their EW units are effective at forcing Ukraine to use more cumbersome systems, their more modern IFVs can provide effective safe transport and fire support for infantry, their helicopters are good at taking out tanks etc. Most of Russias more modern and common tech is perfectly fine for what they do, what they lack is enough of it where it matters and the training and logistics to make good use of it. If they would have been able to outfit all their professional and conscript units with only their modern kit and not some rusty T54 they found in a grassy field they would probably have rolled over and successfully held onto a much larger part of Ukraine. But they didn't have that and still don't have that because the Soviet stockpiles were insane so only small amounts were ever produced of the modern gear. This budget increase is likely a push to try and fix some of that.
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Sep 29, 2023 07:52
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New War on the Rocks with Kofman dropped: https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/one-tree-line-at-a-time-breaching-russian-defenses-in-ukraine/. I suspect nothing surprising to folks in this thread, but Mike does not believe the current offensive is going to culminate in anything definitive, and advises everyone to prepare for a pro-longed war. Also doesn't believe that this offensive will not force Russia to come to the negotiating table.
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Sep 29, 2023 07:58
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Paranoea posted:New War on the Rocks with Kofman dropped: https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/one-tree-line-at-a-time-breaching-russian-defenses-in-ukraine/. I suspect nothing surprising to folks in this thread, but Mike does not believe the current offensive is going to culminate in anything definitive, and advises everyone to prepare for a pro-longed war. Also doesn't believe that this offensive will not force Russia to come to the negotiating table. I said at the start it would take at least until 2025, would hate to be proven an optimist.
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Sep 29, 2023 08:07
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OctaMurk posted:read my thread! It’s pretty interesting and the book covers are bonkers https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1707407873603428717.html  
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Sep 29, 2023 12:47
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I, for one, am glad Russia is there to stand as a bulwark against American Imperial Clancychat. Having a multipolar war fiction section is a net positive for the world.
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Sep 29, 2023 12:58
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Morrow posted:Not directly related to the war, or well sourced, but an entertaining twitter thread alleging that trashy Russian fiction of the early 2010s was state-sponsored revanchist propaganda. Most of the value is some of the funny premises: No, dumb isekai novels were not a secret plot of FSB. In the "tightly controlled book market" the best selling books is YA fiction about boys kissing boys angstily. Reminder that Sumlenny is a shameless grifter that overcompensates for working for pro-Kremlin media even after 2014. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:46 on Sep 29, 2023 |
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Sep 29, 2023 13:39
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fatherboxx posted:No, dumb isekai novels were not a secret plot of FSB. In the "tightly controlled book market" the best selling books is YA fiction about boys kissing boys angstily. There obviously wasn't a concerted effort to promote the popadantsy genre, it's just a symptom of a bigger issue. Although, the 2008 "Мы из будущего" (Black Hunters internationally, apparently) definitely caught an eye of Russian propaganda, and through heavy state-sponsored promotion helped to codify and popularise the genre. It absolutely wasn't a coincidence that its 2010 sequel was about Ukraine. How much that influenced collective conscience is unquantifiable, of course. In any case, I think the reason individual books about gay teenagers sold so well had more to do with that there weren't as many of them available in Russian as the alt-history stuff. I don't think there are any stats, but my guess is cheap pseudo-patriotic alt-history and sci-fi in the past ten years handily outsold most genres that are not 'books for school'. E: The second link mentions papadantsy explicitly but without any numbers. The first probably has them under sci-fi or historical novels. https://rg.ru/2019/08/08/nazvany-samye-populiarnye-zhanry-knig-sredi-rossiian.html https://blog.selfpub.ru/booksmarket Paladinus fucked around with this message at 14:06 on Sep 29, 2023 |
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Sep 29, 2023 14:01
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its not that i think theres no point to trying to analyze the pop fiction i just cringe to think of someone applying the same analysis to say the US
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Sep 29, 2023 14:21
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It's not like Russians have monopoly for bad althist-scifi mashups: quote:Lieutenant Colonel Jerzy Grobicki, commander of the First Independent Reconnaissance Battalion, never imagined even in his darkest dreams that, instead of in Afghanistan in 2007, he and his elite unit would land near Mokra on September 1, 1939 and be immediately attacked by the Wehrmacht. A fascinating war game begins. A handful of NATO soldiers, armed with deadly, futuristic equipment, struggle in a bloody battle with the incalculable power of Nazi Germany. Grobicki is aware that by defending his ancestors' homeland, he is also interfering in history, the consequences of which he is unable to predict. In this incredible work, he is accompanied by colorful officers and soldiers, as well as the beautiful Captain Nancy Sanchez from the US Army. I've watched "Black Hunters", it wasn't that poo poo compared to something as fuckawful as "White Tiger".
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Sep 29, 2023 14:21
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:its not that i think theres no point to trying to analyze the pop fiction When I read about the lead up to WW1 a lot of historians mention the cultural element with things like the widespread popularity of 'invasion fiction'. Even today, there's reams of text written on the context and influence of so many movies, shows and games made in America and what they say about how the War on terror was sold to the public. Seems similar here.
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Sep 29, 2023 14:33
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alex314 posted:It's not like Russians have monopoly for bad althist-scifi mashups: Shakhnazarov peaked at Zerograd and his latest cinematographic input is just dire. Probably only eclipsed by his appearances on propaganda talk shows.
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Sep 29, 2023 14:38
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alex314 posted:It's not like Russians have monopoly for bad althist-scifi mashups: The issue isn't that there is crappy Russian pulp sci-fi, it's that a huge chunk of Russian sci-fi authors are more than a little fash and even more broadly imperialist than that. It's of course very hard to assess how much cultural footprint that has, and to pull apart causes and effects, etc., but I think it's fair to say it's not a good thing for a county that badly needs to care less for imperialism and more for its citizens.
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Sep 29, 2023 14:51
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