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Fate Accomplice posted:https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1704870849831125446 Someone is getting a visit from the Feds. 0dte OOM options are always the first place the cops look!!
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Sep 21, 2023 18:59
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mrmcd posted:Someone is getting a visit from the Feds. It’s so blatant, like if you’re at all subtle and don’t go for maximum profit they’ll never catch you.
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Sep 21, 2023 19:03
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it's gonna turn out to be somebody's 12 year old kid
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Sep 21, 2023 19:21
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Feel for the dude who sold those calls for 4 cents. (had to have been an algorithm, prolly 99% it was automated and hedged from a firm, think they will be ok)
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Sep 21, 2023 19:34
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"This  algorithm uses neural nets there's no way to understand how it decided to do that  here is the incredibly sparse log output not in debug mode"
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Sep 21, 2023 19:36
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Hadlock posted:"This I'm talking about the other side of the trade, the loser. The market maker surely hedged it (but then someone else ate the loss, somewhere).
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Sep 21, 2023 19:43
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For someone that doesn't understand calls and contracts, how much money did they invest and how much did they gain?
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Sep 22, 2023 01:38
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Skunkduster posted:For someone that doesn't understand calls and contracts, how much money did they invest and how much did they gain? It's in the
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Sep 22, 2023 01:40
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Skunkduster posted:For someone that doesn't understand calls and contracts, how much money did they invest and how much did they gain? $22K -> $10.45M
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Sep 22, 2023 01:42
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Fate Accomplice posted:$22K -> $10.45M Thanks for dumbing it down for me. I made a similar investment in Norwegian Air (NWARF) during the first few months of COVID when the stock plummeted thinking that COVID would be over in a couple months and the airline would bounce back. Boy, was I wrong about the timeline. Instead of turning 22K into 10.45M, I turned $22K into $1200. That went from a quick get-rich plan to a very long term investment just hoping to break even someday when I am diamond. Skunkduster fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Sep 22, 2023 |
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Sep 22, 2023 02:23
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dang. you’ll struggle to see the humor in this post then. https://twitter.com/irbezek/status/1704537898073088424
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Sep 22, 2023 03:15
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show me the Berlin-Brandenberg chart
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Sep 22, 2023 03:20
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Does anyone subscribe to any good newsletters? _Are_ there any good newsletters?
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Sep 25, 2023 05:56
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Shear Modulus posted:Does anyone subscribe to any good newsletters? _Are_ there any good newsletters? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine Money Stuff. (it's free)
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Sep 25, 2023 12:20
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pmchem posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine it's not good for tips but it's fantastic for understanding how market participants really act
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Sep 25, 2023 13:16
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mrmcd posted:Someone is getting a visit from the Feds. You can't trade on non public information! Only Congress is allowed to do that!
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Sep 25, 2023 23:19
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Shear Modulus posted:Does anyone subscribe to any good newsletters? _Are_ there any good newsletters? John Mauldlin's "Thoughts from the frontline" is still weekly and free, sometimes goes into odd topics. I found this fund's blog informative - not in stock picks but in ways of thinking: https://collabfund.com/blog/ And this one's good but it's Canadian Stocks only: https://spbrunner.blogspot.com/ I don't know of anyone doing this for US stocks but I wish they would... Bought 138 shares of American Coastal (ACIC) @ 7.52 Stock to watch: Op Gen (OPGN) - could go bankrupt by the end of Sept. - could get bought up by Thermo Fisher, maybe the pie-in-the-sky deal with China for 180 million goes through, who knows? Either sad disaster or a happy surprise...
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Sep 29, 2023 17:33
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pmchem posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine To add another newsletter by a Matt: Matt Stoller’s BIG is about monopolies. There’s a ton of anti trust stuff happening right now so he’s got a lot to write about. Not specifically stock related, but touching on the market and our broader economics that affect stocks: https://www.thebignewsletter.com
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Sep 29, 2023 22:35
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Me in February 2021: BND seems like a safe option, that'll never fluctuate by more than like 50 cents
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Sep 29, 2023 23:16
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Red posted:Me in February 2021: BND seems like a safe option, that'll never fluctuate by more than like 50 cents gonna make me dust off my march 2021 posts about bond yield risks and take another victory lap!
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Sep 30, 2023 01:21
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Red posted:Me in February 2021: BND seems like a safe option, that'll never fluctuate by more than like 50 cents Me, but July '23
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Sep 30, 2023 01:24
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I must have had some confused post from a couple years ago wondering what was holding bond funds up if rising rates would hurt them and the rate at the time was, uh, zero. Seemed like a banana peel on top of a staircase.
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Sep 30, 2023 04:58
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Shear Modulus posted:Does anyone subscribe to any good newsletters? _Are_ there any good newsletters? Bumping others Matthew Levine's Bloomberg blog which can be a bit thick but really good and occasionally hilarious. I'm also subscribed to Calculated Risk but every since Odd Lots came out I've had a hard time with any traditional newsletters.
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Sep 30, 2023 11:07
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Space Fish posted:I must have had some confused post from a couple years ago wondering what was holding bond funds up if rising rates would hurt them and the rate at the time was, uh, zero. Seemed like a banana peel on top of a staircase. The yield on BND was never zero (as in 0.0% or very close). Weirdly I cant find good data on historical yields of the fund, but it looks like it bottomed out around 1.5-2%
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Sep 30, 2023 13:44
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$BLK sitting at an interesting spot. World's largest asset manager and basically the industry partner for the Fed. It's a "high quality compounder" in that they have sustained high margins and earnings growth over time. Some light controversies this past year or two in their ESG policies and China dealings. Now trading under 50mo and 200w SMAs. Even during the GFC it traded under the 200w SMA for less than 6 months. Possible upside catalyst just for headline value (not near term earnings value) if they're first to get a spot BTC ETF approved, which they very well might be. But as an asset manager BLK has a high correlation to SPY or VBIAX, so I guess this is only a ticker to be interested in if you're a market optimist. fwd p/e of 16 and div yield of > 3%. I like their retail products (commentary and ETFs).
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Oct 1, 2023 13:45
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Shear Modulus posted:Does anyone subscribe to any good newsletters? _Are_ there any good newsletters? It’s very niche but if ASX listed junior mining companies are your thing the Money of Mine podcast is absolutely top notch.
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Oct 1, 2023 21:31
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Bumping others Matthew Levine's Bloomberg blog which can be a bit thick but really good and occasionally hilarious. I'm also subscribed to Calculated Risk but every since Odd Lots came out I've had a hard time with any traditional newsletters. Calculated Risk has been good historically, I haven't ponied up the money for the paid one though. I also have found myself reading it less and less over time, but that may be because I'm less exposed to the housing market since I changed roles at work.
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Oct 1, 2023 23:05
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https://www.13d.com/
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Oct 2, 2023 00:33
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Someone convince me why intc is a bad long term investment
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Oct 2, 2023 05:55
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Convince me they have a coherent leadership team and long term strategy that doesn't involve "too big to fail"
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Oct 2, 2023 07:17
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They're totally gonna nail 10nm under new leadership and not just dump money into stock buy backs.
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Oct 2, 2023 07:20
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Ubiquitus posted:Someone convince me why intc is a bad long term investment
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Oct 2, 2023 14:19
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I truly miss reading WILTW
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Oct 2, 2023 14:26
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Ubiquitus posted:Someone convince me why intc is a bad long term investment If you go back a few pages youll find a pretty long discussion of this very thing. My conclusion was to stay the gently caress away, even if you feel like gambling their are better options out there.
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Oct 2, 2023 15:08
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Ubiquitus posted:Someone convince me why intc is a bad long term investment INTC is my largest single stock holding, so certainly think its a good intermediate-long term investment. That being said, here's the bear case. Intel's current turnaround plan involves doing 5 nodes in 4 years (really this is more like 3 major nodes and two half nodes or + nodes). So far they have completed two of them (Intel 7 and very recently Intel 4). They are also attempting to become a third party fab during this process. 1) They could fail to deliver nodes on time. Intel's constant delays with 10nm are in pretty recent memory, it ended up shipping years late. Pushing semiconductor manufacturing to ever higher densities is getting harder and requires R&D efforts in many fields (its not just buy the latest ASML machine). 2) They could deliver nodes reasonably on time, but lose a ton of money in the process. Building out new cutting edge semiconductor fabs is very expensive, and trying to do it on an accelerated schedule is even more expensive. Is intel going to be able to turn a profit on its relatively short lived nodes? Intel 4 is now in high volume manufacturing, but that is going to be replaced by Intel 3, 20A, and 18A in the next 24 months or so if Intel remains on schedule. 3) They could fail to find enough big customers. Intel is building pretty aggressively building capacity for customers that dont yet exist. Onboarding customers like Qualcomm or Mediatek could provide volume without having too many issues with competition. But can they do deals with companies that more directly compete with them? Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD all do a lot of volume with TSMC but also compete directly with Intel in some or even many categories.
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Oct 2, 2023 15:21
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:If you go back a few pages youll find a pretty long discussion of this very thing. My conclusion was to stay the gently caress away, even if you feel like gambling their are better options out there.
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Oct 2, 2023 15:38
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Oil stocks have tanked this week. Debating with myself whether to buy more in anticipation of a rebound or sell some of my high cost basis shares for tax loss harvesting.
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Oct 4, 2023 19:45
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Still have time to buy more at this price and sell the high cost shares in 31 days for tax loss harvesting!
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Oct 4, 2023 20:02
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does anyone here do DCF models? curious to hear your take on a hypothetical baseline company. let’s assume the company has 10% net profit margin forever, no inflation-adjusted revenue growth forever, and no inflation-adjusted cash build. it just prints its margin and puts excess cash into buybacks or dividends, literally forever. its revenue percent changes perfectly follow inflation/deflation. at what p/e multiple would you value this company?
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Oct 5, 2023 17:20
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pmchem posted:does anyone here do DCF models? curious to hear your take on a hypothetical baseline company. let’s assume the company has 10% net profit margin forever, no inflation-adjusted revenue growth forever, and no inflation-adjusted cash build. it just prints its margin and puts excess cash into buybacks or dividends, literally forever. its revenue percent changes perfectly follow inflation/deflation. Well I guess it all depends on the assumptions. I used to work up cash flow models in the past but now just throw more back-of-the-envelope calculations into the spreadsheet. Good luck trying to figure out what sales look like five years out on even the simplest business. (Keynes was laughing about this a hundred years ago but we still do it because, if nothing else, it's a good gut check.) Anyway, if I'm reading your hypothetical right, this is a company that is never unprofitable and whose profits will just grow at the rate of inflation until the heat death of the universe. That kind of sounds like TIPS, doesn't it? So my first thought would be you (1) figure out your expected long-run inflation rate, (2) add some kind of spread because hypothetical company isn't the US Treasury and its shares won't be as liquid as TIPS and (3) invert that for your P/E multiple. Yes, (1) is pretty difficult. My second thought would be "this company shouldn't be public because under these assumptions it'd make a lot of sense to acquire it, lever it to hell and back, and enjoy what would likely be pretty excellent RoEs depending on how much it cost." You can also do things like look at the Gordon Growth Model for simple cases but, again, all of this comes down to your assumptions.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:52
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