(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. Koos, that was a toxic discussion and SA would be better off if we hadn't had it.
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 23:54 |
|
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. Where in the rules is the "violating post lead to good debate" exemption, exactly?
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:29
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. That's extremely stupid reasoning
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:32
|
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. So presumably you won't be probating the good debate we're about to have in response to this post about how you're facilitating what is, at least, trolling. Here's a contribution: one thing Koos avoids pointing out in this post is that he's still probated at least one user responding to the post. What do you all think is the lesson users trying to participate in the forum in good faith will take from this? How about, specifically, users belonging to minority groups that have been subject to repression or abuse? What lesson has Capt_Obvious learned about how to interact with the forum? How about other trolls? What lessons is Koos group teaching them by doing this? Should we transpose these lessons to other DnD threads? What kind of good debates can we have in response to having some vaccine denial added to the covid thread? How about getting some white supremacism in the urban planning thread, that could be productive. What do you think, koos? How much "good debate" should the people trying to use the forum get "led to"? Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:38
|
|
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Where in the rules is the "violating post lead to good debate" exemption, exactly? Well, it's an enforcement policy, not a rule. But the reasoning is that D&D's ultimate purpose is for good debate and discussion to occur, so if a post breaks rules but still leads to that outcome it can be overlooked. Though I'm not entirely sure that was the best choice in this case, as no punishment implies that bad faith posts like that are allowed, and could lead to frustration for those replying to them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:40
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:Well, it's an enforcement policy, not a rule. But the reasoning is that D&D's ultimate purpose is for good debate and discussion to occur, so if a post breaks rules but still leads to that outcome it can be overlooked. Though I'm not entirely sure that was the best choice in this case, as no punishment implies that bad faith posts like that are allowed, and could lead to frustration for those replying to them. Yes, the discussion is still there even if the offending post leads to a probation, or a ban, or a permaban. It's one of the advantages that Something Awful has over websites where the remedy includes deleting the offending post.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:41
|
|
|
Mulva posted:Let me try: I was among the most skeptical about the potential of this offensive pointing out the many difficulties the Ukrainians faced and was mocked by many for being a pessimist. But their progress to date is well short of what I thought was possible, for understandable reasons.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:46
|
|
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Yes, the discussion is still there even if the offending post leads to a probation, or a ban, or a permaban. It's one of the advantages that Something Awful has over websites where the remedy includes deleting the offending post. Yes, that's a fair point. I'll probe the post and reconsider this policy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:48
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. This is literally the same reasoning that Elon uses to keep people who post CSAM and antisemitism around on Twitter. You can be better than him you know. Ed: ^^^^ thank you!
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:49
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:I'd like to make a note. While this was a foolish and possibly dishonest post, the reason I didn't probate it is because it led to good debate in response, featuring material many people would not know and could used to respond to another person bringing up a similar argument. I assumed the OP was simply grossly uninformed. Most people have a rather simplistic understanding of the Holocaust as on the lines of "The Nazis rounded up the Jews, sent them to camps and killed them" which doesn't really equip them to discuss details around a process that stretched from 1933 to 1945. I also agree that dealing with such ill-informed statements acts to improve the general understanding of the facts. I've spent years disproving denialist claims on USENET and at first their pre-packaged statements about X or Y seem plausibly supported by evidence - it's only when you dig into it you find out they're full of poo poo. Nizkor.org and Danny Keren were a great resource in the 1990s and I think theyre still online. I ended up taking a day trip to Dachau to prove Matt Giwer was lying about the gas chamber and 'showers' there. https://www.nizkor.org/giwer-matt/ well there you go vvvv maybe he is just uninformed? The lack of a retraction *does* reflect poorly on him though. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 05:53
|
|
|
What I don't understand is why somebody can be probated 22 times so far this year and then make a post like that and they only get 18 hours. Why are repeat offenders coddled, especially considering for every probe there were probably multiple posts that weren't probed that should have been. Why can't we kick the egregious recidivists out for good at the very least from the thread if not the forum?
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:05
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:Well, it's an enforcement policy, not a rule. But the reasoning is that D&D's ultimate purpose is for good debate and discussion to occur, so if a post breaks rules but still leads to that outcome it can be overlooked. Though I'm not entirely sure that was the best choice in this case, as no punishment implies that bad faith posts like that are allowed, and could lead to frustration for those replying to them. u can nuke someone (metaphorically) and it doesn't undo the good posts people made dunking on their idiotic bullshit you know
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:18
|
|
|
Koos has enthusiastically embraced one of the most backwards moderation positions possible: he doesn't like reading the forum and doesn't want to be responsible for exercising judgement, so he doesn't remove trolls because that would require discerning their motivations. By contrast, he can more reliably enforce rules that are for more "objective" elements, like accusing someone else of trolling or "posting about the forums". In this way, honest users who get trolled are reliably punished, and the people who are trying to poo poo up discussion have a right to play. Basically a live speedrun to the ol' calm hitler cartoon, which we've just seen pretty much completely in action. Over time, this unwillingness to moderate encourages trolls (and normalizes trolling), drives off users who want to participate in good faith or share expertise, and makes moderation even less pleasant as the remaining users get angry and call attention to how lovely it is. Really he should charge for blue checkmarks next. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:19
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:What I don't understand is why somebody can be probated 22 times so far this year and then make a post like that and they only get 18 hours. Why are repeat offenders coddled, especially considering for every probe there were probably multiple posts that weren't probed that should have been. Why can't we kick the egregious recidivists out for good at the very least from the thread if not the forum? To be fair, a bunch of these probations are weird IK fuckery meant to communicate through chain probes or whatever the gently caress, but if you dig past those and look at stuff like: PROBATION 11/03/22 12:55pm Cpt_Obvious Pretending the situation is a false binary between wonderful benevolent Russian foster care and leaving children in an active warzone is horrific. User loses posting privileges for 3 days. Azathoth Azathoth PROBATION 08/10/22 03:20am Cpt_Obvious You were threadbanned from the D&D China thread for a stream of lukewarm diarrhea posts where you were either being incredibly dense or trying to mine quotes to take back to CSPAM. That was not an invitation to strip all context and cross-post tweets about China from CSPAM into the US CE thread while also lying about their content. Either participate in good faith in D&D or don't post here. User loses posting privileges for 1 day. Fritz the Horse Fritz the Horse PROBATION 10/19/21 05:42pm Cpt_Obvious Having a functioning justice system does not preclude genocide not happening. Try again. User loses posting privileges for 1 day. CommieGIR CommieGIR I don't come out with it feeling a reason to give this poster the benefit of the doubt when it comes to war crimes or genocides.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:27
|
|
|
Cpt_Obvious is intentionally being aggro for the hell of it, and while enormous swathes of Polish society happily cooperated with the Nazis I don't believe Poland's government was particularly happy about being invaded & turned into a more literal satellite state, but I will say that the portrayal of Poland as an uwu smol bean that was unjustly preyed upon by two powers is extremely tedious. They had an immensely outsized role in allowing Hitler's war machine to assemble, to assemble unopposed, and was responsible for its own imperialist ambitions of the time. Vilnius and parts of Orava didn't come under their stewardship out of good graces. As for Babyn Yar, Blinken is objectively incorrect & abusing its memory for cheap points in disgusting fashion. The USSR immediately invited western journalists to the site. They were not silent at all about what happened there, and while they had a policy of invoking the massacred as Soviet citizens, there was no law or censorship against pointing out that Jews were predominantly killed at Babyn Yar. It's not holocaust denial, but it is a form of WW2 revision that has become worryingly popular in these post-Soviet times, and I'm glad that Twitter as a whole is having none of it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:42
|
|
|
karthun posted:Koos, that was a toxic discussion and SA would be better off if we hadn't had it. Exactly. Trolling or not. It's incredibly stupid and hurtful even for a comedy forum. This also from a poster who has numerous probations, warnings, etc. that are all quite recent. The number one rule of D&D is that you are supposed to post in good faith it's quite clear this person isn't doing that at all.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 06:52
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:What I don't understand is why somebody can be probated 22 times so far this year and then make a post like that and they only get 18 hours. Why are repeat offenders coddled, especially considering for every probe there were probably multiple posts that weren't probed that should have been. Why can't we kick the egregious recidivists out for good at the very least from the thread if not the forum? I've always had the same question but honestly I feel at this point given that there have been so many IK changes in the last few years it seems to me those in charge for forum simply do not care.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 07:00
|
|
|
MikeC posted:I was among the most skeptical about the potential of this offensive pointing out the many difficulties the Ukrainians faced and was mocked by many for being a pessimist. But their progress to date is well short of what I thought was possible, for understandable reasons. That's sort of the point, your expectations don't seem understandable at all. What were you basing them on, your assumption that Ukrainians are a type of fairy folk that can just float over a few thousand miles to strike deep into occupied territory? They are doing fine. This part was always going to suck, and be grueling. What would possibly make you think otherwise? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 07:20
|
|
|
Mulva posted:That's sort of the point, your expectations don't seem understandable at all. What were you basing them on, your assumption that Ukrainians are a type of fairy folk that can just float over a few thousand miles to strike deep into occupied territory? They are doing fine. This part was always going to suck, and be grueling. What would possibly make you think otherwise? This is exactly what I was going to post. I even outright said that anyone who thought that this was going to be a quick and easy offensive was deluding themself, so it's pretty amazing to see that the guy who has been down on it from the word 'go' had such massive hopes for it. Even the translated thing he posted didn't even say the offensive was a bust, MikeC just read into it what he wanted to read.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 08:08
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:As for Babyn Yar, Blinken is objectively incorrect Actually he's quite correct in his statement. "Eighty-two years ago, Nazis murdered 34,000 Jews at Babyn Yar." The first sentence is pretty unarguable. "Soviets buried this history..." Sadly the Soviets did intentionally bury the fact that the goal of the Holocaust was to kill Jews. This has been repeatedly discussed in the decades since by a wide number of commenters. It's not even controversial. Wikipedia:"The Holocaust in the Soviet Union" posted:The Jewish Anti-Fascist Committee, established in 1941, was active in propagandising for the Soviet war effort but was treated with suspicion. The Soviet press, tightly censored, often deliberately obscured the particular anti-Jewish motivation of the Holocaust. An article from Yad Vashem detailing Soviet government consistent opposition to memorials to slain Jews under Stalin: https://www.yadvashem.org/articles/academic/holocaust-commemoration-under-stalin.html An article from the Wilson Center on the conscious erasure of the centrality of Jews to the Holocaust https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/dont-learn-russians-about-the-holocaust She quotes Elie Wiesel that "I have learned that the Holocaust was a unique and uniquely Jewish event, albeit with universal implications. Not all victims were Jews, but all Jews were victims.” Her view on what the Soviets acted this way is quite plausible: quote:The Soviets’ decision to cast a shroud of silence over the centrality of Jewish suffering in the Holocaust stemmed in part from their need to win the support of the local populations, which had to be brought back into the fold after the Nazi occupation. The Soviets had to reintegrate and re-indoctrinate them after prolonged periods of being subjected to Nazi propaganda (including anti-Semitic propaganda). To speak of Jews as the primary victims of the Nazis would not have served that purpose. The Wikipedia article on "Babi Yar Memorials" (link) makes exactly the same points. quote:After the war, several attempts were made to erect a memorial at Babi Yar to commemorate the fate of the Jewish victims. A turning point was Yevgeny Yevtushenko's 1961 poem on Babi Yar, which begins "Nad Babim Yarom pamyatnikov nyet" ("There are no monuments over Babi Yar"); it is also the first line of Shostakovitch's Symphony No. 13. The Soviets deliberately and persistently buried the fact that the Holocaust was, as Elie Wiesel said, a "uniquely Jewish event". Only *after* the fall of the Soviet Union was it possible to put up a memorial at Babi Yar to the Jews slain there. Ed: and we're not even *touching* the subject of Soviet anti-Semitism: "rootless cosmopolitans", Doctor's Plot, etc. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 08:19 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 08:11
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1708525837098627501?s=20 Only getting to Tokmak would probably have been seen as somewhat of a disappointment before the offensive. Now, it would be a qualified success. I think it's pretty plain that the counteroffensive has been underwhelming so far in terms of liberated territory. I know people like to bring up that it's also about other measures like attrition, but these are much more difficult to evaluate. EDIT: That's not to say I agree with Julian Röpcke's doom and gloom read of DeepState's posts. But you are also kidding yourself if you don't think there is cause for concern. beer_war fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 08:26
|
|
|
beer_war posted:https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1708525837098627501?s=20 Show me an update in 2025, that's how long i thought the conflict would last... i think it's going to be longer but a swift collapse of the russian invasion would indeed be nice.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 08:39
|
|
|
Also, DeepState has an English-language Telegram if you'd like to read it in full, there is no need to have a lovely tabloid reporter interpret it for you. https://x.com/RALee85/status/1708316924197609878?s=20
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 08:52
|
|
|
beer_war posted:https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1708525837098627501?s=20 Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky stated early on in this counter-offensive that Tokmak is the main goal, and reaching anything beyond that would exceed their expectations. There is always cause for concern, but I would be more concerned if I was supporting Russia. The Ukrainians still carry the momentum/initiative and I believe they are going to continue well into winter.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 09:17
|
|
|
If you ever have concerns that the Ukrainians are not proceeding at the expected pace just remember that Russia went from '3 days to Kyiv' to 'We are planning operations for 2025'. There is a long way to go before '...and thus it is hopeless'. The concern is for the ever increasing human cost, not for the eventual geopolitical outcome.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 09:21
|
|
|
Maybe I'm a hopeless optimist but I feel like the constant pressure and degradation of the Russian line will inevitably lead to a breakthrough unless Russia does a new round of mass mobilization and we hear about a big reenforcement effort. Until we hear that happen, or that the Ukrainians are pausing, I don't think you can say this is spent. Very slowly then very quickly is how this will happen, if it does.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 09:54
|
|
|
Alexandra Prokopenko (former advisor to Bank of Russia in 2017-2022, now a journalist) and Pavel Luzin (expert on military acquisition), two speakers that I tend to always listen to in regards to Russian economy and budget, have prepared a rather dry but informative article on 2024 Russian budget and record military spending and how it is setting up for a long game. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90666 (in Russian) quote:The government as a whole has decided on the budget for 2024. For the first time in the history of modern Russia, military budget expenditures will reach 6% of GDP and will exceed spending on social areas. The war with Ukraine and, more broadly, with the collective West, as Vladimir Putin understands it, is finally becoming not only the Kremlin's top priority, but also a driver of economic growth. quote:In fact, the military-industrial complex's bad debts are a form of hiding colossal losses. If individual plants (Kurganmashzavod, Motovilikhinskie Zavody) or entire corporations (Uralvagonzavod, UAC) turned into zombies, they were simply absorbed by Rostec. The launch of formal bankruptcy procedures before such a takeover by Sergey Chemezov's empire often did not lead to their recovery. quote:Unlike oil, guns are pulling industry: in July, growth amounted to 4.9%. A significant part of this growth is accounted for by the industries related to the provision of the front: production of other transport (+66.7% against the level of the previous year), computers and electronics (+42.6%), and navigation devices - at once +72.4%, electrical equipment (+29.5%), overalls (+40.4%). The industries not directly related to the front, but participating in the fulfillment of the "front task" are also growing at abnormally high rates: repair and installation of equipment (+8.5%), food industry (+11.3%).
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 10:57
|
|
|
Hmm, not quite War Economy but getting there. Awkward that many of the former USSR war industry is in Ukraine  Although I am sure that Russia itself has a lot of factories they can re-activate on their own. Or build new ones.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 11:24
|
|
|
Koos Group posted:Yes, that's a fair point. I'll probe the post and reconsider this policy. 
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 12:28
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:but I will say that the portrayal of Poland as an uwu smol bean that was unjustly preyed upon by two powers is extremely tedious. They had an immensely outsized role in allowing Hitler's war machine to assemble, to assemble unopposed, and was responsible for its own imperialist ambitions of the time. Vilnius and parts of Orava didn't come under their stewardship out of good graces.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 13:57
|
|
|
It takes some Paradox gamer brain to consider Poland as responsible for not "1936 quick DoW strat" Germany. Bigger role than France or UK?? It's like blaming Czechoslovakia for not blowing up all factories and any armored vehicle, that ended up as a significant portion of German armored forces. Or mentioned USSR that was all too happy to provide fuel and food.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 15:10
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:Cpt_Obvious is intentionally being aggro for the hell of it, and while enormous swathes of Polish society happily cooperated with the Nazis I don't believe Poland's government was particularly happy about being invaded & turned into a more literal satellite state, but I will say that the portrayal of Poland as an uwu smol bean that was unjustly preyed upon by two powers is extremely tedious. This post is misleading. The claim that "enormous swathes of Polish society happily cooperated with the Nazis" is straight up false. While obviously there were people who did reprehensible things like selling out their own neighbours (Jews, people hiding Jews, resistance figures) for money, or even initiating their own pogroms under German occupation (including without any German encouragement or "encouragement"), and obviously the Polish nation as a whole cannot just disavow them and act like they don't count (as it is unfortunately wont to do), they did not represent "enormous swathes" of anything. Similar crimes were perpetrated elsewhere in Europe, including in places like France, where both the rewards of collaboration and punishments for resistance were smaller. Meanwhile, the Germans never formed a collaborationist government in Poland. Half of the land they captured was integrated directly into the Reich and the other half was put under military occupation, which did not involve any Polish officials or figureheads (in contrast with France, Norway, Slovakia, etc.). This is in no small part because there were no significant figures who favoured collaboration. Pétain or Quisling had some kind of recognition and some degree of influence in their respective nations before German invasion, but Poland produced no collaborationist of even remotely similar standing. Instead, it saw the flourishing of armed resistance forces of ~650,000 people at their peak and thousands more in passive resistance, little sabotage, and diversionary activities, all this where large-scale Allied support was logistically impracticable and the German occupation immensely brutal. The phrasing "more literal satellite state" is unclear here, but I find it suspect within the general tone of the post. The invasion did turn Poland's government into a satellite dependent on the Western Allies, that much is true. But the tone of the posts suggests a reading - and correct me if I am wrong in this reading - that Poland was throughout its existence a satellite state of Germany and became more so after the invasion. Such a claim would also be untrue. Firstly because, again, there was no collaborationist government, just a military occupation authority. I do not believe that exhausts the definition of a satellite state (you are free to differ), and I certainly do not believe that this military authority represented either the will of the Polish people or some kind of continuation of the legal Polish government. Finally, Poland's foreign policy throughout the interwar period revolved largely around conflict with Germany, which Germany itself pursued and which the Polish side believed would eventually lead to war if not stopped. Germany started a trade war with Poland in 1925, lasting until 1934, and Poland's economic policy since its beginning was to disentangle its economy from the German (which was never completely accomplished, because it was a monumental task - remember that the most industrialised areas of Poland were part of Germany until 1918-1921, and finding new markets for Polish coal and steel, building the necessary infrastructure, and developing the requisite merchant navy and ports were no small feats for a very poor country like Poland). Poland opposed the Rapallo agreement, was explicitly not covered by the Locarno treaties, recommended to the Western Allies a military response to German provocations between 1936 and 1938, and, well, refused the German ultimatum that led to the outbreak of World War II. These are not the actions of a government aligned with Germany, much less a satellite state. With regards to the Vilnius and Spisz/Orawa questions, to avoid getting into the weeds of Eastern European international relations in the interwar period - this is not the thread for that, after all - all I will say is that they are of no immediate consequence to the events of September 1939 and, frankly, bringing them up borders on whataboutism.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 15:17
|
|
|
Glah posted:While I'm not sure about what country helped Nazi-Germany most in relative terms, I'm pretty sure that the Soviet help to nazis had on absolute terms greater effect to get their war machine going than Poland ever had. The oil that fed blitzkrieg came from Soviet Union and the last Soviet trains full of supplies to Germany were still crossing the border right until Barbarossa got going. The USSR had spent nearly five years trying to assemble an anti-Hitler alliance with the UK and France. Shortly after the Munich Agreement they had managed some breakthroughs as a result of the UK's public and its parliament being receptive to such an alliance, but Chamberlain remained staunchly opposed. It was their calculus that Hitler was more likely to invade the USSR than the West, and so was unwilling to engage in a security agreement. He wouldn't be able to stonewall the agreement by himself though, as Parliament was adamant about such an alliance, so it was good fortune that the first proposed agreement was a four-power declaration which included Poland. Poland's prime minister Beck rejected the proposal immediately (be it because he wanted to annex more land, or he was convinced that Hitler would favor Poland as an independent lapdog, or he genuinely was a catastrophic moron that thought Nazism was less of an issue than Communism, who knows), and Chamberlain exploited this dissent. In total, the USSR would draft four different plans, each with fewer and fewer security commitments for the USSR, and each one would be intentionally delayed or ignored by the UK, having lost the initial momentum that the first plan had. Fiasco: The Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance That Never Was and the Unpublished British White Paper This was after the Munich Agreement, in which Poland actively prevented the USSR from crossing their border to come to the defense of Czechoslovakia, as they had correctly predicted that they would see some territorial gains out of Germany's conquest (though incorrectly assumed their role in further ambitions). This would provide Hitler with substantial munitions & its necessary industry to carry out larger offensives. There is an alternate timeline where, without a belligerent Poland and a staunchly anti-Communist UK PM, Germany's aggression is contained and the Holocaust is localized within its borders. For what it's worth, it's true that the trade that came about as a result of Molotov-Ribbentrop was essential to Hitler's war machine, though it's my personal opinion that a Germany that had immediately set its sights on the USSR would have seized those resources anyways (and likely would have successfully conquered Russia, considering the state of their industry at the time). Leaving a WW2 in which Hitler would be fighting on one front, with the resources of Russia, against a significantly weaker Allied force. E: There's actually some interesting parallels between assumptions about where Hitler would invade, and assumptions about whether or not Putin would invade Ukraine; the pragmatic analysis in both occasions was that Hitler would invade the East/Putin would not invade, because in both cases it made no sense otherwise (Hitler because the USSR was not going to remain an ally & the West repeatedly signaled that they would not defend Russia, Putin because Zelensky was becoming a political pariah/the timing was awful with the weather/he had not amassed a large enough force). In Hitler's case it turned out that this decision would prove fatal, remains to be seen what happens for Putin. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Oct 2, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 15:44
|
|
|
It is deep into counterfactual territory but I have a very hard time seeing that the best way for Soviets to safe guard against nazis post München agreement was to do their own imperialist conquests in eastern Europe in conjunction with nazi imperialism and start supplying them with massive amounts of much needed fuel so they can knock out all other potential advesaries on the continent. It depends on the idea that nazis could go through Poland without western allies intervening (Poland gives voluntary access to nazis?) and invade Soviet Union and nazis would get their oil from somewhere other than Soviet Union (would western allies provide it?). Basically for it to have been realistic possibility, western allies and Poland would have needed to do the exact same thing Soviet Union did with Germany historically, ie. ally with them. Maybe it made sense in Stalin's paranoid mind but I find it more probable that only thing Molotov-Ribbentrop pact did was help nazis do their thing and almost doom Soviet Union itself. It was Soviet oil that powered the panzers at the start of Barbarossa.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:03
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:Poland's prime minister Beck rejected the proposal immediately (be it because he wanted to annex more land, or he was convinced that Hitler would favor Poland as an independent lapdog, or he genuinely was a catastrophic moron that thought Nazism was less of an issue than Communism, who knows), and Chamberlain exploited this dissent. I am sure the USSR's 1937 targeted execution of 100k ethnic Poles in the USSR had no bearing on his decision not to open Poland's borders to Soviet troops. Regardless, if the USSR was so weak that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was necessary as a matter of survival it seems like Poland probably made the correct call. An army that could not defend the Soviet Union's home turf would be unlikely to be able to defend Czechoslovakia and allowing a Soviet expedition would likely have squandered meager Soviet military assets and risked provoking Germany into a war that would be disastrous for the USSR (and ultimately the world.) If Chamberlain had not blocked France from intervening then it would be a different story but Poland was working with the hand it was dealt.
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:04
|
|
|
Are you goons really still doing this? 
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:27
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Are you goons really still doing this? It's discussion of current events, why are you complaining?
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:29
|
|
|
Current events =/= 1934-1945
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:32
|
|
|
The X-man cometh posted:Current events =/= 1934-1945 I think Rappaport was being sarcastic there
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:34
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 23:54 |
|
|
Lets wind down the molotov-ribentropp discussion
|
|
#
?
Oct 2, 2023 16:39
|
|