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I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Nephthys posted:

Isn't Gaetz the guy who suddenly announced he had a 19-year old "son" living with him that nobody had ever heard of before and the whole thing was super duper dodgy?

I'm surprised that never became a bigger thing, iirc the kid literally never existed before then.

You mean “Nestor” his “helper elf”? He must have some wild career protection given what happened to that other nazi guy who was utterly destroyed by footage of him face-loving his cousin while howling. We know Gaetz has filmed himself having sex because he (“allegedly”) showed photos and video of himself loving teenagers to other representatives.

The guy is like something out of True Detective.

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The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

What guarantees could McCain possibly give that he could actually be held to?

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

The Lone Badger posted:

What guarantees could McCain possibly give that he could actually be held to?

To haunt the living? To rise from the grave and seek revenge?

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Main Paineframe posted:

Gaetz went on CNN today and said he'd move to oust McCarthy this week.

McCarthy went on CBS today, and is publicly projecting an air of confidence and fearlessness, telling Gaetz to "bring it on".

It's pretty clear that the fate of McCarthy lies in the hands of Dems, who haven't been too open about how they're going to respond. Gaetz reportedly started approaching Dems privately several days ago and asking them how they'd vote onof a motion to vacate.

The House Dems don't seem to have fully settled on a strategy, yet. It's a difficult choice - side with Gaetz to screw over McCarthy, or side with McCarthy to screw over Gaetz? Progressive leaders like Jayapal and AOC appear to be firmly on the "oust McCarthy" side even if it means helping Gaetz, while a few moderates have suggested that saving McCarthy would almost (but not quite) be worth it just to see the look on Gaetz's face. Publicly, the Dem leadership has yet to commit to anything, but barely anyone in the Dem caucus likes or trusts McCarthy at all, so the general consensus is that he'd have to offer a substantial bribe with ironclad guarantees to get unified Dem backing.

I doubt he gives a poo poo how credible people find the story to be, because it's completely loving inconsequential, and everyone except the worst politics addicts and the most dedicated anti-Dem partisans will have already forgotten about it by now. The Speaker of the House is getting ousted for refusing to shut the government down, this fire alarm stuff is absolutely not going to go down in history.

Screwing McCarthy puts the house into chaos and screwing Gaetz gets rid of Gaetz.

Legit tough call.

Ohthehugemanatee
Oct 18, 2005

I AM GRANDO posted:

You mean “Nestor” his “helper elf”? He must have some wild career protection given what happened to that other nazi guy who was utterly destroyed by footage of him face-loving his cousin while howling. We know Gaetz has filmed himself having sex because he (“allegedly”) showed photos and video of himself loving teenagers to other representatives.

The guy is like something out of True Detective.

I'm sorry, what?

Is there a name or an article somewhere? I don't really want to type "face loving cousin while howling" into google and start clicking down the page.

Ohthehugemanatee fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Oct 2, 2023

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Ohthehugemanatee posted:

I'm sorry, what?

Is there a name or an article somewhere? I don't really want to type "face loving cousin while howling" into google and start clicking down the page.

Madison Cawthorn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Cawthorn#2022

I should have googled first.

Twincityhacker
Feb 18, 2011

I AM GRANDO posted:

To haunt the living? To rise from the grave and seek revenge?

McCain coming back and haunting congress would make my decade. My other top Republican to bring back to scare the living would be Dwight D. Eisenhower, but the man was so rabidly anti-communist he might manage to frighten everyone to start poo poo with China. ( Though his anti-communist hatred were occasionally used to good ends, like promoting civil rights - the idea being if POC were not second class citizens, they would be less likely to support communist causes. )

Baring supernatural intervention, I'm not sure if McCarthy would entertain giving power to the House Democrats. Mostly because while he still would be Speaker, he'd get primaried out in 2024.

TheDisreputableDog
Oct 13, 2005

Main Paineframe posted:

I doubt he gives a poo poo how credible people find the story to be, because it's completely loving inconsequential, and everyone except the worst politics addicts and the most dedicated anti-Dem partisans will have already forgotten about it by now. The Speaker of the House is getting ousted for refusing to shut the government down, this fire alarm stuff is absolutely not going to go down in history.

At a minimum, it’s off-brand. There’s only supposed to be one party that’s cool with illegally throwing monkey wrenches into government machinery, and one party that expects people to accept “they were just tourists” style lies with a straight face.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

World Famous W posted:

im cool with underhanded tactics. it makes me roll my eyes when i see people try to sell me that it was just a mistake

The mistake was just pulling the alarm instead of either Mr Magooing it up for the obviously surveillance cameras, or just blowing through the emergency door for the same effect . Which, to be fair, does lend some weight to the idea that the Congressman is legitimately dumb enough to pull a fire alarm in order to open a door.

The Lone Badger posted:

What guarantees could McCain possibly give that he could actually be held to?

The only way is to get whatever concessions written into the House rules. Which probably requires McCarthy to first be ousted to ensure happens.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
Dems could negotiate for something solid like chair of a few committees and more seats on the rules committee. I admit, I don't know exactly what that means but I gather it has real power over moving legislature. McCarthy could revoke it, but then they vote for his removal and we're back to today.

Any deal only needs to last for 14 months.

Dems couldn't negotiate for something like "Pass a bill" because McCarthy has no real ability to pass bills.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

StumblyWumbly posted:

Dems could negotiate for something solid like chair of a few committees and more seats on the rules committee. I admit, I don't know exactly what that means but I gather it has real power over moving legislature. McCarthy could revoke it, but then they vote for his removal and we're back to today.

Any deal only needs to last for 14 months.

Dems couldn't negotiate for something like "Pass a bill" because McCarthy has no real ability to pass bills.

They couldn't negotiate for "pass a bill," but they could demand the right to put a certain bill or some number of bills on the calendar, bypassing the Speaker's typical chokehold on which bills get votes. That would be a hell of a concession, but it's possible.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Newsome has decided

California Gov. Newsom will appoint Laphonza Butler to fill Feinstein’s Senate seat

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/laphonza-butler-dianne-feinstein-successor

SirFozzie
Mar 28, 2004
Goombatta!
Ok, this seems kinda goofy:

California will hold two Senate elections next November: a special election for the remaining months of Feinstein’s term until January 2025 and another for a full six-year term

That's kinda goofy,

The primary for the special election (who would fill the seat for the final five-six weeks or so of Feinstein's Senate term November 2024-January 2025) and the regular election (For 2025-Jan 31) will happen at the same time, and then in November, the top two vote getters from the primary (who likely will be the same people in the special as the regular, I don't think there's going to be someone running for a six week job) will face off in two elections on the same day again to see who gets the last weeks of Feinstein's term and then a full six year term.

I guess it's because the Senate has a fixed term of six years, (and that they have to have a special election at SOME point) that they do it, but man, it seems like duplication of effort.

edit: Actually, this raises questions. Can people donate 2x the limit, because it's technically two separate elections? So say $2,800 for the special election, and $2,800 for the regular election? And to get signatures on the ballot, do you have to have to meet the criteria for each election separately? (IE, if you need 5,000 Signatures, do you have to either have 5,000 people sign twice, or do they have to be 5,000 different people each time?)

SirFozzie fucked around with this message at 06:07 on Oct 2, 2023

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Butler seems...okay? Union organizer, but also took a break to be AirBNB's 'director of public policy'.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Why would the Dems trust any promises McCarthy made to keep his speakership? Besides the obvious “they’re Charlie Brown, dipshit;” is there any way to actually hold him to his word?

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

SirFozzie posted:

I guess it's because the Senate has a fixed term of six years, (and that they have to have a special election at SOME point) that they do it, but man, it seems like duplication of effort.

Having an interim Senator for a year and then having a special election for a two month term is what seems stupid and causes this problem.

Yiggy
Sep 12, 2004

"Imagination is not enough. You have to have knowledge too, and an experience of the oddity of life."

Judgy Fucker posted:

Why would the Dems trust any promises McCarthy made to keep his speakership? Besides the obvious “they’re Charlie Brown, dipshit;” is there any way to actually hold him to his word?

Article published in wapo Thursdayish I wanna say had reporting from a dem caucus meeting and the main ticks were that Jeffries would expect power sharing agreement to be codified into rules. As part of trade dems would want rebalancing of certain committees to give minority more power and rules to share power over the house floor with minority party. Anything less would be a no go because as you say no one trusts McCarthy.

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

Judgy Fucker posted:

Why would the Dems trust any promises McCarthy made to keep his speakership? Besides the obvious “they’re Charlie Brown, dipshit;” is there any way to actually hold him to his word?

Nope, just the hope that THIS TIME, the Republicans won't pull the football away.

The threat of looking like a hypocrite has long been taken out behind the woodshed.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Judgy Fucker posted:

Why would the Dems trust any promises McCarthy made to keep his speakership? Besides the obvious “they’re Charlie Brown, dipshit;” is there any way to actually hold him to his word?

In this case it would mostly be the fact that he 100% loses his speakerphone the moment they withdraw support because it's not like "got propped up by the dems" is going to make the people pulling the trigger in removing him LESS willing to try to remove him from the speakers hip again.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

reignonyourparade posted:

In this case it would mostly be the fact that he 100% loses his speakerphone the moment they withdraw support because it's not like "got propped up by the dems" is going to make the people pulling the trigger in removing him LESS willing to try to remove him from the speakers hip again.

Yes, this is the time where it's actually appropriate to make a deal with the fascists.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

Bel Shazar posted:

Yes, this is the time where it's actually appropriate to make a deal with the fascists.

Well, any deal that includes stuff like "We want these people on this committee, or you lose our support immediately" and other concrete, verifiable factors. His own caucus is spitting fire on Fox about how he can't be trusted to do stuff like agree to take a vote for this or that, or anything informal. Pretty sure dems can make him re-mortgage his soul since he's now an apostate with the MAGA cult but none of them should trust him to follow anything that isn't externally verifiable and enforceable.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
Sharing control of the floor so there could be votes on bills that Democrats think they could get passed, and getting some committee gavels to modify key legislation, would be worth setting up a speaker agreement, but I don’t think McCarthy will really offer that. Anything less than a real power sharing agreement is a nonstarter, since any one-off deal would either be intentionally voted down by Republicans or betrayed by McCarthy himself.

Kaal fucked around with this message at 13:30 on Oct 2, 2023

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Judgy Fucker posted:

Why would the Dems trust any promises McCarthy made to keep his speakership? Besides the obvious “they’re Charlie Brown, dipshit;” is there any way to actually hold him to his word?

The same way Gaetz held McCarthy to his promises: the ability to remove him pretty much immediately if he displeases them. While McCarthy would theoretically be able to hold the speakership without Dem votes if he managed to recover the Gaetz wing's support, I can't see how McCarthy would be able to win them back after accepting help from the Dems.

That said, basically none of the Dems trust him at all, so if they cut a deal with him, they'd expect concrete concessions quick.

That all assumes he's willing to deal with Dems at all, though. As badly as he wanted to be speaker, taking that much support from Dems would likely be a permanent hit to his reputation among Republicans, and I'm not sure he's that desperate.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

the_steve posted:

Nope, just the hope that THIS TIME, the Republicans won't pull the football away.

The threat of looking like a hypocrite has long been taken out behind the woodshed.
This is false and has been covered explicitly and specifically already in this thread. Within the past few days, even!

Paracaidas posted:

Also, Jayapal is the first Dem with any sway I've heard hint towards what McCarthy will have to give up to have Dems help avert a shutdown or survive a vote on his gavel

quote:

“If there was any kind of a deal to be made, it would need to be written into the rules of the House,” she said Thursday afternoon. “We would need to codify power-sharing because that’s the only way we can trust him.”

“There are things we can do in codifying the rules of the House that would give Hakeem Jeffries, our leadership, real power over the floor, over committees, etc,” she added of the House minority leader.

She said that she and other progressives had “identified a whole menu of options” as they mull how to craft such an arrangement.

quote:

“We had this conversation today in CPC, and we had it a week ago with our CPC executive board,” Jayapal said, referring to the 102-member Congressional Progressive Caucus, which she chairs. “Nobody should rely on us to save McCarthy.”

Jayapal added that they’d homed in on power-sharing because it’s ironclad

In addition, hell hath frozen over as Thomas recused from Eastman's hail mary over his emails (which involved Thomas):
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1708838723876466737

And The Prospect looks at post-Dobbs campaigning in the South:

quote:

It was hard to say who won the war of words at the St. Jerome Fancy Farm Picnic in western Kentucky, the summer festival of food, fun, and games that bills itself as “the world’s largest one-day barbecue.” What the 143-year-old Catholic church fair really does is kick off Kentucky’s campaign season with a rowdy, old-school beatdown starring candidates for public office.

Andy Beshear, the Democratic governor now seeking re-election, led the pack with all the positivity that an incumbent could radiate. He labeled the election “a contest over vision and di-vision.” Shouting over chants of “liar, liar, liar” from opponents in the crowd, Beshear pointed out how people responded to the severe storms that hit the area in July and underlined his administration’s three years of job creation, the billions of dollars of investment in the region, and the hundreds of bipartisan bills he worked to pass.

Daniel Cameron, the Republican attorney general trying to replace him, wound up his fans with one-liners on Bud Light’s marketing and new pronouns for the governor (“has and been”), and threw out GOP buzzwords like “law and order.” The Republican’s camp dutifully booed his Joe Biden mentions on cue.

A good time was had by all. Abortion never came up.

This uneasy silence on one of the most divisive topics in American politics ended during Labor Day weekend, however, when Beshear dropped a 35-second ad that put abortion front and center. “Daniel Cameron thinks a nine-year-old rape survivor should be forced to give birth,” intones Erin White, a Jefferson County prosecutor. Sidestepping both the critique and immense harms that victims suffer, Cameron had a surprisingly weak response to Beshear’s salvo. He touted his “pro-life” stance and criticized the governor’s “desperate attack.” Three weeks later, Cameron retreated from his repeated stance on a total ban and said that he would support rape and incest exceptions.

Abortion isn’t the only issue shaping this November’s statewide elections in Kentucky. It certainly isn’t in Mayfield, a city of 10,000 people still recovering from a devastating tornado nearly two years ago and this summer’s torrential rains and massive flooding. Crystal Fox, the president of the Mayfield Minority Enrichment Center, had praise for the governor. “Since the tornado, he’s been on the ground a lot,” she told the Prospect. “By contrast,” she claims, Cameron “hasn’t really been seen in the area as much.”

Gurley also covers some of the history and explanations for the differing tactics across Mississippi, Kentucky, and Louisana. It's helpful insight into races that I was mostly clueless on.

(e: Added prospect link)

Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Oct 2, 2023

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
God, Laphonza Butler is less than half the age of the senator she's replacing

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Oops Trump's legal team forgot to request a jury trial in his $250m civil fraud case

https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1708855856412987796

This is why it's important to pay your lawyers.

SwimNurd
Oct 28, 2007

mememememe

zoux posted:

Oops Trump's legal team forgot to request a jury trial in his $250m civil fraud case

https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1708855856412987796

This is why it's important to pay your lawyers.

The lawyers are only going to get paid from the settlement money when they sell off trump tower and poo poo.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1708880822932066685

Gaetz is wussing out, so sad to see.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
With the appointment of Laphonza Butler we are now getting closer to parity between "black women in the U.S. Senate" and "Astronauts in the U.S. Senate."

There were previously 2x as many people who had slipped the surly bonds of earth and touched the face of God as there were black women in the Senate in all of U.S. history combined.

Now, it's 3 black women in all of U.S. history vs. 4 people who have been to space.

Foxfire_
Nov 8, 2010

The thing that'd make me pause about immediately kicking out McCarthy is that the GOP is probably not actually capable of replacing him with anybody in a timely manner.

The current funding bill is only 45 days. If the GOP fails to elect a new Speaker, you're trying to negotiate with unofficial leaders about what's in a long term funding bill, and also deal with a procedural mess because the House rules aren't really expecting "introduce and pass bills with no presiding officer" to be a possible situation.

It seems like you might end up in shutdown just because nobody can figure out how to kick the can with another 11th hour extension.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs
If the House spends every day doing failed Speaker elections, not even Fox News will be able to convincingly blame the Dems for it. Which gives the House Repubs some incentive to get someone in place so they can go back to their usual lying and gaslighting.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

With the appointment of Laphonza Butler we are now getting closer to parity between "black women in the U.S. Senate" and "Astronauts in the U.S. Senate."

There were previously 2x as many people who had slipped the surly bonds of earth and touched the face of God as there were black women in the Senate in all of U.S. history combined.

Now, it's 3 black women in all of U.S. history vs. 4 people who have been to space.

We must send Sen. Butler to the International Space Station. No wait that would make the disparity worse

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

koolkal posted:

If the House spends every day doing failed Speaker elections, not even Fox News will be able to convincingly blame the Dems for it. Which gives the House Repubs some incentive to get someone in place so they can go back to their usual lying and gaslighting.

“Losing radical democrats selfishly continue to vote for the urban radical Hakeem Jeffries, even though they know he can’t win! If they would just admit that republicans are in charge and vote for one, this would all be over!”

Kale
May 14, 2010


You see I would do it if it were not for the.....*fumbles through notepad of currently circulating right wing conspiracies on social media* ah yes the secret meetings between the speaker and the president THEY DON'T want you to know about. Checkmate libs! :smug:

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Someone is circulating talking points on how to respond to the Bowman issue and one of them is:

quote:

I believe Congressman Bowman when he says this was an accident. Republicans need to instead focus their energy on the Nazi members of their party before anything else.

Now whether or not we consider Paul Gosar to be literally a member of the NDSAP or merely a militant, racist fascist, anytime you do this a million GOP commentators and politicians crawl up on the cross about the lack of decorum and how insulting and how dare democrats and you know the rest. So now Bowmann has to come out and specifically denounce these TPs
https://twitter.com/RepBowman/status/1708925626407674238

And probably have a stern talking to with his comms director. Anyway, the story continues.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

zoux posted:

Someone is circulating talking points on how to respond to the Bowman issue and one of them is:

Now whether or not we consider Paul Gosar to be literally a member of the NDSAP or merely a militant, racist fascist, anytime you do this a million GOP commentators and politicians crawl up on the cross about the lack of decorum and how insulting and how dare democrats and you know the rest. So now Bowmann has to come out and specifically denounce these TPs
https://twitter.com/RepBowman/status/1708925626407674238

And probably have a stern talking to with his comms director. Anyway, the story continues.

Neo-Nazi is a pretty decent term to describe the modern republican

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”
Why do the Dems care if the GOP gets angry at being accurately described as Nazis? Their voters aren't going to ever vote Democrat, so have a spine and just call a spade a spade. Jesus Christ, caring about "decorum" in 2023 is just incredibly pathetic.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Mustang posted:

Why do the Dems care if the GOP gets angry at being accurately described as Nazis? Their voters aren't going to ever vote Democrat, so have a spine and just call a spade a spade. Jesus Christ, caring about "decorum" in 2023 is just incredibly pathetic.

Because the national press will make it an issue and pretend that the GOP has good faith objections to be referred to in those terms. In politics, one must choose one's words carefully.

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer

zoux posted:

Because the national press will make it an issue and pretend that the GOP has good faith objections to be referred to in those terms. In politics, one must choose one's words carefully.

They already do this poo poo constantly with Biden's age as if Trump isn't also on death's door in addition to possibly heading to prison, in addition to a million other bad faith bullshit false comparisons. "Don't give them ammunition" is a dumb argument when they make their own out of nothing IMO.

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Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

zoux posted:

Because the national press will make it an issue and pretend that the GOP has good faith objections to be referred to in those terms. In politics, one must choose one's words carefully.

This is why it's so important to add the neo-

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