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DynamicSloth posted:Objectively Cornel West and the Green Party would make a much better effort together then apart, unless there's some other vaguely credible candidate waiting in the wings. I'm guessing this, much like RFK Jr. abandoning the Democratic primary is just the effective end of the campaign even if the candidates themselves don't know it yet. I mean, again, I've been told that the Green Party is little more than a big tent for anti-science weirdos and Kremlin stooges, maybe West got wise to that and no longer wants to associate with them? I agree that he'd have a better shot (lol) running on a party's ticket. GlyphGryph posted:Why don't you offer a different possible motivation for him running first as a Green and then as an Independent then, with the priors, again, being that he is not insane and not an idiot. See above. There is also the possibility of him running to give voice to issues he cares about even if he knows his chances of winning are slim to nil. Rust Martialis posted:Dr. Jill Biden No clue what point you're trying to make here. Mind elaborating?
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Oct 5, 2023 17:51
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Speaking of fund raising JESUS https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1709962547548348563 This was already a razor thin margin in 22
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Oct 5, 2023 17:53
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Rust Martialis posted:Dr. Jill Biden You should call both of them professor (if Biden still teaches), as it’s much harder to get a job as faculty than it is to complete a Ph.D. and that’s the title you actually use in the profession.
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Oct 5, 2023 17:56
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Judgy Fucker posted:See above. There is also the possibility of him running to give voice to issues he cares about even if he knows his chances of winning are slim to nil. If you argue this, you have to explain how it works. An independent can't be in either the Republican or Democratic debates. They don't have immediate ballot access like the Greens. There is no way that they're inherently taken seriously outside anyone who already takes them seriously. quote:No clue what point you're trying to make here. Mind elaborating? Academic honorifics aren't used in conversation outside the context of the academic subject unless it's in medicine. It's a weird thing to do. Even famous scientists don't do this, let alone someone whose PhD is in philosophy.
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Oct 5, 2023 17:57
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zoux posted:Speaking of fund raising JESUS This was a super-close race in ‘22, but haven’t a lot of democratic challenger raised a huge amount and gone on to fail? The money alone just means that democrats love to donate to campaigns against people they hate.
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Oct 5, 2023 17:58
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I AM GRANDO posted:This was a super-close race in ‘22, but haven’t a lot of democratic challenger raised a huge amount and gone on to fail? The money alone just means that democrats love to donate to campaigns against people they hate. Yeah, people dumped an ungodly amount of money into Amy McGrath's campaign against Mitch McConnell and she got legendarily destroyed. That's not fraud, though, since she had a D after her name.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:03
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I AM GRANDO posted:This was a super-close race in ‘22, but haven’t a lot of democratic challenger raised a huge amount and gone on to fail? The money alone just means that democrats love to donate to campaigns against people they hate. She tried to tone down the MAGA stuff in the wake of her skin-of-the-teeth win, and so far the biggest story about her has been when she was jerking a guy off in the audience of a children's play, denying it, and then having the footage pasted across national media. That seat is not some outside chance against a strong incumbent.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:03
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This discussion did remind me that it's been a hot minute since I looked at the HHS unaccompanied children data. You know, half of what people are referring to when they talk about Kids In Cages. News is goodish! Looks like influx / emergency intake shelters are presently not really a thing, and stay times at ORR are... significantly better than under Trump, although it looks like 2023 is worse than 2022. Summary data by year: https://www.acf.hhs.gov/orr/about/ucs/facts-and-data More detailed data for 2023, in a website format that is completely bollocksed on PC Chrome: https://www.hhs.gov/programs/social-services/unaccompanied-children/latest-uc-data-fy2023/index.html Average length of stay (imo the most important metric) was 30 in 2022, which is about two weeks too long but squeaks in under the non-emergency-situation target, and 40-45 in 2023, which isn't great. also ORR seems to be doing a pretty bang-up job about getting unaccompanied kids to immediate family in the states Can't immediately find current data on kid length of time in CBP custody before being handed to ORR. This is one of the other relevant metrics because CBP doesn't particularly like having to go to the effort of treating detainees well and doesn't really like having to hold them at all when they could either deport the migrants or at least make them another agency's problem. The good news is that the latter (Trump admin excepted) creates pressure for CBP to give the children to ORR as soon as they possibly can.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:04
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I really wish we had a different political climate for many, many reasons. The recent tensions where I live, which is overall more liberal than much of America, over the presence of migrants, is one of those reasons. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/nyregion/eric-adams-right-to-shelter-migrant-crisis.html NYC is trying to suspend the right to shelter, citing the increased load due to the increased migrant population presence. I suspect Mayor Adams is facing issues with his own willpower too, to be fair... Anyway, everything I see and read points to a need for a comprehensive infrastructure to process and house people coming in and help them get incorporated into our society in a rational and compassionate way but way too many people just want to kick everyone out. The back and forth about the border is making me think of that. A border wall will fix nothing, but we have massive issues with properly dealing with all the people who want to come in. I don't know how to implement any of my ideas without becoming a benevolent despot. By the way, I hate our mayor. quote:Mr. Adams continued to criticize Mr. Biden on Tuesday night, saying at an event with business leaders that he could not remain quiet when the cost of providing services to migrants would force him to cut other programs that help New Yorkers in poverty. Most of these people are running away either due to abject poverty or to save their own lives, you cretin.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:06
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This is the second third party Cornell West has tried to get nominated for, but then dropped out after it was clear that he was probably going to lose/spend a lot more effort than initially anticipated with the nominating process. You can just Occam's Razor and use the knowledge that: - West is a notoriously eccentric weirdo with strong religious beliefs that guide his political beliefs. - He has always been an activist for those beliefs and sought the spotlight. - He wants to advocate for those beliefs in the public sphere. and come to the determination that he wants to run for President to advocate for his beliefs and get public attention. He has attempted to do so by being associated with two third parties, but has failed and will become an independent to meet his goals. Leaving the Green party actually makes it more difficult for him to get ballot access and is probably something that the Democratic party is happy with. He wants to advocate for his religious and political beliefs and he is a notoriously eccentric person who wants to have national attention to personally advocate for those ideas. Running for President is a good way to do that and after the first two attempts to run with the assistance of other political parties failed, then an independent run is the next best way to achieve it. I don't think you have to look much deeper than that.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:09
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Xombie posted:If you argue this, you have to explain how it works. An independent can't be in either the Republican or Democratic debates. They don't have immediate ballot access like the Greens. There is no way that they're inherently taken seriously outside anyone who already takes them seriously. We're talking about him, aren't we? There are articles being published about him, social media posts, aren't there? I already agreed he'd have a better shot--slim as it is--while in a party. Xombie posted:If you argue this, you have to explain how it works. An independent can't be in either the Republican or Democratic debates. They don't have immediate ballot access like the Greens. There is no way that they're inherently taken seriously outside anyone who already takes them seriously. This has not been my experience at all (and saying "It's a weird thing to do" is bordering on an ad hom), but sure, whatever. eta: I think Leon has a spot-on analysis of West and his motivations.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:09
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I AM GRANDO posted:This was a super-close race in ‘22, but haven’t a lot of democratic challenger raised a huge amount and gone on to fail? The money alone just means that democrats love to donate to campaigns against people they hate. Yeah in like Texas and Kentucky, not a race that the incumbent almost lost.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:10
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The actual correct position re: immigration is that we should be encouraging it; statistically, it is a huge net gain for us, economically and culturally, especially in light of our otherwise declining population growth. But it's hyperpoliticized and thus no longer arguable. Immigration isn't a problem it is a solution but good luck getting the post fox news public to see that.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:10
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I AM GRANDO posted:This was a super-close race in ‘22, but haven’t a lot of democratic challenger raised a huge amount and gone on to fail? The money alone just means that democrats love to donate to campaigns against people they hate. Raising a lot of money for a swing seat in congress is good. If you want to complain about fundraising, Democrats are donating millions of dollars to candidates in the California senate primary.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:10
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James Garfield posted:Raising a lot of money for a swing seat in congress is good. If you want to complain about fundraising, Democrats are donating millions of dollars to candidates in the California senate primary. You probably need that to run a campaign at all in CA. You can’t just assume you’ll win because republicans are unpopular. That’s how you get the weird guy who filled Ted Kennedy’s seat for a term.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:13
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Judgy Fucker posted:We're talking about him, aren't we? There are articles being published about him, social media posts, aren't there? I already agreed he'd have a better shot--slim as it is--while in a party. But you are one of the people who takes him seriously already. You're talking about expanding his audience as a motivation. There were already articles being published about him, social media posts, etc. He's already a public figure of some sort. That doesn't prove that an independent presidential run does anything to actually expand that audience. I'm not convinced people who run vanity campaigns outside of major parties actually have anyone looking at them that wasn't already looking at them. What media will cover him that wouldn't have covered him if he did some other publicity stunt?
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Oct 5, 2023 18:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Running for President as an independent is not really a good way to make money unless you have a book coming out or you manage to parlay that fame into something more lucrative. He already makes a significant amount of money. Granted, he has some large debts, but that isn't due to an income problem. Cornel West is a prolific writer with quite a few books under his belt, so I wouldn't be so quick to write that off. Granted, it's been a few years since he's published a book, and he hasn't announced any new ones coming, but the election is still more than a year away. That said, looking at his campaign rhetoric, I don't really think it's about the money. I think he's aiming to be a spoiler candidate who weakens Dems in purple states by siphoning off votes from young leftists. He publicly denies that, as is traditional for people aiming to be spoiler candidates, but he's not being all that subtle about it otherwise.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:19
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Google Jeb Bush posted:I'm less clear on whether the waivers are functionally mandated. My gut would say no. Mayorkas has been more willing to listen to shitheads in CBP/ICE on some issues than I'd prefer and this seems like it would be a perfect time to, well, not do those waivers and let things just drag along. If someone wants to sue about this interfering with the "expeditious" clause, they can do that. Otoh the "high illegal entry" bit isn't mayorkas repeating cbp whining, it's part of the congressional instruction for where to build the required barriers. The register notice is at least phrased as a "must" as well.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:21
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Xombie posted:But you are one of the people who takes him seriously already. You're talking about expanding his audience as a motivation. There were already articles being published about him, social media posts, etc. He's already a public figure of some sort. That doesn't prove that an independent presidential run does anything to actually expand that audience. You don’t think running for President would expand his public profile at all? Really? And as far as leaving the Greens, that’s already been discussed. Maybe he is willing to take a hit so as to not be associated with charlatans? And I’m not sure what you mean by “take him seriously” because you’ve ascribed that position to me and would like clarification on what I purportedly believe.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:25
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Main Paineframe posted:Cornel West is a prolific writer with quite a few books under his belt, so I wouldn't be so quick to write that off. Granted, it's been a few years since he's published a book, and he hasn't announced any new ones coming, but the election is still more than a year away. Leaving the Green party would hurt his goal of doing that because it makes ballot access much more difficult. His official reason is that it was too much work navigating the Green party nomination process. quote:Peter Daou, Mr. West’s campaign manager, said that the West campaign had weighed these likely complications against other factors, such as the Green Party’s highly decentralized nominating process. It seems like he just wants to be officially running so he can campaign and make appearances without having to pay for it out of his personal pocket. That seems to indicate that he is much more focused on making sure he gets to advocate for his beliefs personally rather than doing whatever is most likely to make him a spoiler candidate. He may want to be a spoiler candidate, but his actions indicate that he really wants to personally be involved in the media/campaign aspect and values that more than the ideological/pragmatic goal of successfully being a spoiler. He doesn't want to support someone else who might get the Green Party nomination or People's Party nomination. He wants to be doing it himself. Prominent activist or rich person runs vanity/issue campaign for President is a pretty common phenomenon.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:28
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https://twitter.com/jslaternyc/status/1709748330606023166 Really hosed up story about how there have been more than 500 hoax school shooting emergency calls made in the last year, which of course result in armed tactical teams busting into schools and pointing guns at everyone. quote:Lt. James Rich was one of the officers at the scene. He remembers the rush of adrenaline and the strange silence inside the school. It felt like a puzzle whose pieces didn’t fit. Investigators seem to think it's the same guy, making the calls through VOIP outside of America. quote:Many of the calls have followed a distinct pattern, according to police reports and recordings reviewed by The Post. quote:Catalin Grigoras, director of the National Center for Media Forensics at the University of Colorado at Denver, conducted a technical analysis for The Post of five of the hoax calls made between September 2022 and April 2023. Grigoras said there was a strong probability that the caller used a device or app to alter their voice in real time. However, it was also highly likely, Grigoras said, that the same person was speaking in each recording. Anyway, they still don't know who's doing it or why, though someone intimated at a school safety conference in Utah that the FBI does have some suspects. quote:At Nouvel Catholic Central High School, the doors rammed by the police cruiser were swiftly repaired. Other damage will take longer to heal. I don't have any trenchant commentary here beyond it's really hosed up that one crazy guy in Macedonia or wherever can reach out and cause such misery and terror on the other side of the planet with a phone call
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Oct 5, 2023 18:32
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/jslaternyc/status/1709748330606023166 If it’s as simple as a google voice account and a vpn, you’d think it would happen more often. Maybe organized groups or state actors have investigated it and realized that loving with a single school on a single day doesn’t really do anything and the only reason to bother is because that’s your fetish. 500 schools is a lot, but if you had like 50 guys, it seems like you could hit every school in a city at once.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:49
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zoux posted:Anyway, they still don't know who's doing it or why, though someone intimated at a school safety conference in Utah that the FBI does have some suspects. In the article there is a reconstructed timetable of calls from one morning and it’s like this guy is in a call center somewhere. Just instant turn over of calls and he’s running a rehearsed script and interacting with dispatchers in routine way. If it’s one sick individual they are certainly quite motivated and practiced.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:49
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Yiggy posted:In the article there is a reconstructed timetable of calls from one morning and it’s like this guy is in a call center somewhere. Just instant turn over of calls and he’s running a rehearsed script and interacting with dispatchers in routine way. If it’s one sick individual they are certainly quite motivated and practiced. Well I imagine somewhere around the 400th or so time you place a call like that you probably do get somewhat practiced at it and have a general script in mind for what you're going to say. Again.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The actual correct position re: immigration is that we should be encouraging it; statistically, it is a huge net gain for us, economically and culturally, especially in light of our otherwise declining population growth. Yeah even among democrats people mostly don't give a gently caress about asylum seekers. And the fact that immigration is an economic positive is counter-intuitive to the narrative so you have to explain it, and if you're explaining you're losing. Fear politics work really really well, that's how a party as incompetent as Republicans can stay alive and in power.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:54
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Which countries have good immigration policies worth emulating? To my view, every liberal democracy in the world is dealing with nationalist backlash to immigration, whether political or economic, and it's driving the rise of far right parties across Europe and the Americas. Great Britain literally detonated their whole country rather than accept more Polish guest workers. We elected a clearly insane moron because he was mean to Hispanic migrants on the campaign trail. Dunno what the solution is but it's very concerning that you can get millions of people to turn into frothing fascists because someone who doesn't speak English took a little too long in line in front of them at the grocery store.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:00
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Judgy Fucker posted:There is also the possibility of him running to give voice to issues he cares about even if he knows his chances of winning are slim to nil. Yeah OK that's a viable option too, thanks for that. I'll keep an eye out for if he says that or not. If that is his intention and he's not saying so but fundraising, that's still a grift. A better grift, admittedly.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:00
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So there's a low-key story buried in this https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/10/musk-makes-news-links-on-twitter-aka-x-less-useful-by-removing-headlines/ quote:Previously, posting a news link on X/Twitter would create a box with the article's lead image, headline, and the domain of the news site. Now, a news link on X is just the article image with the site domain (e.g., arstechnica.com) superimposed on the bottom left. Clicking the image will take you to the news site's article. From now on, there is no guarantee that commentary on a I'm not accusing you or your link of doing this at all, just making note that this has now a thing with
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Oct 5, 2023 19:03
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It's like Elon is trying to maximize the social harm that the platform can have.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:05
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In a sort of "Lost Chapter from Catch-22" moment, Biden is calling the press into the Oval Office to condemn the new wall construction started by the Department of Homeland Security. He is noting that it was part of a 2019 law passed before he was President and he asked for it to be re-appropriated, but congress refused. He says most of the construction is going to roads and lights, but also says that the wall part is a waste of time and money. However, he says it has to be built. The law was passed in 2019 and specified that construction was required to start by October 7th, 2023. https://twitter.com/asmamk/status/1709974348281295094
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Oct 5, 2023 19:06
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Bel Shazar posted:Yeah OK that's a viable option too, thanks for that. I'll keep an eye out for if he says that or not. If that is his intention and he's not saying so but fundraising, that's still a grift. A better grift, admittedly. Here's his serious policy document https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1709952330253128109 Discendo Vox posted:It's like Elon is trying to maximize the social harm that the platform can have. The result is just going to be that news outlets put the headline in the tweet instead of the subhed, I don't think it's going to have a material effect. I think he's trying to increase clickthroughs? But also he's a malicious moron so who knows.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:07
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zoux posted:Which countries have good immigration policies worth emulating? America pre-1954 (closure of Ellis island) More seriously New Zealand has a pretty solid overall immigration policy. It's a point based system based on what jobs are hiring and anyone who has enough points / right job skills can get in. It would be better if it were less restrictive though.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:10
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Leaving the Green party would hurt his goal of doing that because it makes ballot access much more difficult. If he's only seeking to play a spoiler, then he doesn't need to get on ballots nationwide, just in a couple of swing states that went for Biden in 2020. And not wanting to deal with Green Party primaries is understandable. Especially given that the Greens are probably tired of being played for fools by famous names who are running just to vent their resentment at the Democrats. A spoiler strategy is harmful to the Greens in a couple of different ways, so a Green primary might actually be trouble for him. And the above is why he wouldn't want to support some other Green Party candidate. Because a career Green Party candidate would likely be focused on running up the score in deep-blue states, to boost the Greens' popular vote percentage without running the risk of electing Trump. That's a very different path from what an intentional spoiler would do. If West were just running to promote his ideological causes, then I'd expect him to spend more time talking about his causes, and less time loudly insisting that a vote for Democrats is a vote for fascism and that the only true anti-fascism is a third-party vote. Like I said, he's not being very subtle about his intention to be a spoiler candidate.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:12
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zoux posted:Here's his serious policy document Jesus and I thought the green party one was embarrassing. fake edit lmao there's an antivax point in here too
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Oct 5, 2023 19:14
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zoux posted:Here's his serious policy document This whips. I'm voting West in 2024. Hard to choose but I think the worker justice part is my favorite:
Greater protections for workers who attempt to unionize Requirement for all non-profit organizations to allow for the unionization of workers and collective bargaining One year limit on contract negotiations - if the contract is not completed in one year, the demands of the workers will be immediately codified 33% minimum worker representation for of all Boards of Directors Transform Paid Family Leave to mandate a minimum of six-months fully paid time off End all pay discrepancies based on race, gender identity, disability status, etc. Establish a federal commission to institute a four-day work week Review all U.S. trade agreements and cancel any provisions that exploit workers domestically and internationally National free pre-K childcare
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Oct 5, 2023 19:14
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https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1709950884988248523 I am so relieved that this is what happened, because it sure seemed like Kavanaugh was giving Alabama a road map on how to get his vote in a subsequent challenge. The new AL-02 was/would've been Biden +12
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Oct 5, 2023 19:15
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I could believe that Cornel West just wanted to do a vanity campaign and wasn't prepared for the level of grift around "socialist professor launches presidential campaign". I mean Bernie Sanders had to have been better prepared, and he was running as a Democrat so legit people were actually offering to work with him, and he still fell for a bunch of grifters.zoux posted:Here's his serious policy document quote:Convene a federal panel of scientists and experts to study the safety and utilization of vaccines for infectious diseases lol of course this is here
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Oct 5, 2023 19:18
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The biggest indicator of fraud is the presence of Peter Daou. Also "Abolish poverty" isn't a policy position.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:20
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Why stop at a federal panel? Why not expand on that to an permanent fixture? Like a bureau or something. Put them in charge of vetting drugs for safety and efficacy. Hell, we can give them food too. Call it the Drugs & Food Bureau. Someone fuckin elect this genius!
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Oct 5, 2023 19:21
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It is kind of funny that he mentions that, by running as an independent, he is able to produce a new dream platform without limits on feasibility or dogma from other political parties and several of the planks are still "Form a commission to study X." It reminds me of that one joke from The Office where Dwight tells Jim his fantasy about torturing him in Hell as the assistant manager of Satan's Hotel and he replies, "You're not the manager? Even in your own fantasy? Just so I understand it, in your wildest fantasy, you are in Hell, and you are co-running a bed-and-breakfast with the Devil?" Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 19:23
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