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Rigged Death Trap
Feb 13, 2012

BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP

Charliegrs posted:

Ok then so what I don't understand about the 2 state solution is what areas would be the Palestinian state? Gaza and the West Bank? And if they become a separate country how is that any different than what they are now? And yes Im well aware my questions are dumb and come from a place of ignorance. But see I'm American, and American media most likely has purposely created such a pro Israel narrative that you have to really dig to learn the truth about what's going on in the region. And most Americans aren't going to do that. Therefore you end up with "Israel good for *reasons*. Palestinians bad because they are just like ISIS and Al Quaeda"

The classic flavor 2 states solution is based in the 1967 borders and shared territory in jerusalem, berlin style.

The current situatuon is that you have these two parts of land thats are both administered by different governments. Hamas for Gaza, Fatah, for the west bank.

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H.R. Hufflepuff
Aug 5, 2005
The worst of all worlds

CuddleCryptid posted:

Fair point, and I am using them interchangeably. If someone said to destroy the nation of Palestine then it would be indeed questionable because Palestine...well, it largely doesn't have a State. However, in common usage they are use interchangeably because they are very similar. To separate the two in Israel's case in a way that implies a genocide of Jewish people would be to say that the nation of Israel only covers 75% of state citizens, which just doesn't make sense for any nation with a formal state and concept of citizenship. But I'm also engaged in divining what individuals posters meant when taken literally or by intention, which is a fool's errand.

"The nation of Israel must be destroyed and the people of Israel must face a reckoning" doesn't exactly take a psychic to divine meaning. Your Rosetta stone here is the second statement.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

CuddleCryptid posted:

Fair point, and I am using them interchangeably. If someone said to destroy the nation of Palestine then it would be indeed questionable because Palestine...well, it largely doesn't have a State. However, in common usage they are use interchangeably because they are very similar. To separate the two in Israel's case in a way that implies a genocide of Jewish people would be to say that the nation of Israel only covers 75% of state citizens, which just doesn't make sense for any nation with a formal state and concept of citizenship. But I'm also engaged in divining what individuals posters meant when taken literally or by intention, which is a fool's errand.

Israel has plenty of fairly complicated citizenship/recognition scenarios as is, look at how they handle policies with the Druze in the north and citizenship accordingly. Where it was "you retain your citizenship but can also have Israeli citizenship if you want it"

I would expect any concept of recognition for Gaza would also be complicated, be it Israeli or Palestinian or something else entirely.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Charliegrs posted:

So really dumb question. But let's say Israel decided to do the right thing one day in regards to the Palestinian territory. What exactly would that mean? Would that mean they tear down the border walls/fences and border crossings? And allow unrestricted movement for Palestinians and give them full citizenship? And obviously stop doing the genocide against them?

That would be one option, yes. The other option would be to establish an actual sovereign state for Palestinians. Unfortunately, Israel's right wing has spent the last two decades doing their best to make the second option impossible; a state can't really have sovereignty when it's dotted by fortified settlements of another country, but the settlers certainly aren't going to submit to Palestinian rule and Israel lacks the political will to rein in hundreds of thousands of well armed, politically connected settlers. I am not even sure it would be possible to capitulate the settlements without a civil war at this point, effectively putting the two-state solution off the table. Similarly, the one-state solution (what you essentially describe) is unacceptable to militant Israelis because merging the Palestinian territories and people with Israel would mean the votes would be split nearly 50/50 between Israeli Jews and Arab Muslims, jeopardizing the Jewish character of the state.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

Private Speech posted:

Well the big thing is that Israel controls the borders including the sea (jointly in places with Egypt and Jordan), both for the movement of people and goods, regularly intervenes militarily, Palestinian institutions are not free to access international forums or markets and particularly in west bank Israelis would not be able to settle on palestinian land, nor would Israeli policemen and army be able to act freely in those areas.

Ok but say the Palestinian territories are a separate country someday. Would that be good enough for the Palestinians? Or do they want more land than just Gaza and the West Bank?

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Nov 5, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

the holy poopacy posted:

I am not even sure it would be possible to capitulate the settlements without a civil war at this point, effectively putting the two-state solution off the table.

A right-wing government pulled out thousands of settlers from Gaza in 2006 and demolished the settlements there. It's very contentious and very unpopular in Israel right now after the withdrawal from Gaza didn't produce the security they wanted, but it isn't going to cause a literal civil war in Israel if they tried to remove settlers again. Under Obama, they froze settlement construction and moved a very small amount of settlers after U.S. pressure.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nothing in there is even remotely close to "Israel would still control all the borders, seaports, and air space." The Jordanian border temporarily having an international team at certain military checkpoints that included Israel and Palestine is extremely different from that.

I'm not sure where Private Speech got that text from, though it's admittedly hard to be specific about Camp David 2000 because there was an intentional effort by both sides to avoid leaving written records of anything until a deal had been settled on, so all we really have to go on is the personal claims of those who were there. But here's what multiple sources from both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine perspectives agree on: Israel's demands at Camp David included Palestinian demilitarization, Israeli control of Palestinian airspace, Israeli monitoring of all border crossings, some amount of Israeli military bases in Palestinian territory for some period of time (sources vary on the specifics), enclaves of Israeli-controlled territory splitting the West Bank into several physically-separated regions, and a right for Israel to close off those enclaves to cut off Palestinian movement between the different parts of the Palestinian territory. I've also seen some sources suggest that Israel demanded the right to send troops into the West Bank when they felt it was critical for them to do so.

It's quite hard to call that a sovereign independent state - or even say that it's really much different from the current West Bank status quo.

Here's how Mahmoud Abbas himself described the Israeli "security" demands at the Camp David summit:

quote:

Israel says it needs 3-5 army bases for monitoring and intervention purposes. Israel also demands that the air space be completely under its control. It asked for a presence at all international entry points to monitor persons, products and weapons. As for the state of Palestine, it must be a demilitarized state.

quote:

The Israelis want control over a part of the Jordan Valley for a maximum 12-year period. That would keep the current military bases and settlements there untouched. The Israelis asked for six bases in the West Bank and three military monitoring areas. Israel demanded it have a presence at the international crossings (to monitor those entering and leaving the area. Israel also demanded the entire air space and electro-magnetic space to be under its control. The Palestinians said they would accept an international force or a multi-national force on the borders. What we won't accept is an Israeli presence, in any form on Palestinian territory.

Obviously, that's a one-sided account, but the accounts I've seen from Israeli and American members of the negotiations seem to broadly agree with with it, though they tend to be only brief mentions with few details (in general, the Israeli/American accounts don't like to talk too much about the Israeli side's demands).

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


Charliegrs posted:

Ok but say the Palestinian territories are a separate country someday. Would that be good enough for the Palestinians? Or do they want more land than just Gaza and the West Bank?

That entirely depends on who you ask, but most would be happy with that these days, yes.

e: I was just posting about the old camp david accords earlier, not the ones to continue Oslo.

Private Speech fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Oct 13, 2023

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Nov 5, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Private Speech posted:

That entirely depends on who you ask, but most would be happy with that these days, yes.

Most polling shows that about 55% Palestinians think that a Palestinian state should focus on "regaining all of historical Palestine from the river to the sea." But, about 30-35% of them support a two-state solution.

A one-state solution where the two countries merge and there are equal rights for Palestinians and Israel is the least popular option with only about 1 in 10 supporting it.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/what-do-palestinians-want

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Oct 13, 2023

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Charliegrs posted:

Ok but say the Palestinian territories are a separate country someday. Would that be good enough for the Palestinians? Or do they want more land than just Gaza and the West Bank?

I'm sure they'd want more land, but a majority of Palestinians seem to regard the West Bank + Gaza as an acceptable solution. The main sticking point is how much of the West Bank.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

A right-wing government pulled out thousands of settlers from Gaza in 2006 and demolished the settlements there. It's very contentious and very unpopular in Israel right now after the withdrawal from Gaza didn't produce the security they wanted, but it isn't going to cause a literal civil war in Israel if they tried to remove settlers again. Under Obama, they froze settlement construction and moved a very small amount of settlers after U.S. pressure.

The West Bank is more than 10 times larger and has at least 50 times as many settlers as the Gaza relocation. Part of the reason that the Gaza settlements were pulled out was the fact that they were so insignificant that maintaining them was untenable. I can't say that it ever would come to anything resembling civil war but it would certainly be many times uglier than the Gaza pullout, which as you say is already contentious.

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

rscott posted:

https://twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1712860751193403683?t=ffrC7mRZYVUl7EOlHmdknw&s=19

The United States won't be doing anything to convince Israel to take their foot off the gas pedal. Whatever goodwill Biden might have gotten from doing the right thing on Afghanistan he's giving up by cheerleading this unfettered violence by the IDF.

Genuinely "yeah we are 100% for the slaughter, crush the untermenschen beneath your heel"

I honestly cant imagine supporting Biden in the next election. You can remind yourself that Trump would have been just as bad right now, but he's not in the seat. Biden is, and he's giving two thumbs up to this.

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

Charliegrs posted:

Ok but say the Palestinian territories are a separate country someday. Would that be good enough for the Palestinians? Or do they want more land than just Gaza and the West Bank?

Even if you assume the Israeli state/government and the Palestinians are ok with this (a rather tall order to begin with), there's now 500,000 settlers living in the West Bank.

And given that they are some of the most militant/radical Jewish people, there's no way in hell they would agree with suddenly living in a Palestinian-ruled country.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

uXs posted:

Even if you assume the Israeli state/government and the Palestinians are ok with this (a rather tall order to begin with), there's now 500,000 settlers living in the West Bank.

And given that they are some of the most militant/radical Jewish people, there's no way in hell they would agree with suddenly living in a Palestinian-ruled country.

I feel like the potential compromise here if Israel were willing to act in good faith would be to freeze further settlement construction but have the tax income given to the PA in compensation and ban land sales/trade to anyone other than the PA to slowly reclaim the land via attrition. With the settlements de facto remaining under partial Israeli administrative for the duration? If removing them non violently is off the table or impossible.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Charliegrs posted:

Ok then so what I don't understand about the 2 state solution is what areas would be the Palestinian state? Gaza and the West Bank? And if they become a separate country how is that any different than what they are now? And yes Im well aware my questions are dumb and come from a place of ignorance. But see I'm American, and American media most likely has purposely created such a pro Israel narrative that you have to really dig to learn the truth about what's going on in the region. And most Americans aren't going to do that. Therefore you end up with "Israel good for *reasons*. Palestinians bad because they are just like ISIS and Al Quaeda"

The majority of the West Bank (including most of its useful agricultural land) is under direct Israeli military control, with Israeli residents subject to standard Israeli law and Palestinian residents subject to the dictates of an Israeli military government. The rest of it is split into a number of small Palestinian enclaves that are nominally under the partial or complete control of the Palestinian Authority, but are separated from each other by Israeli-controlled territory. The Palestinian territories don't control their own borders, airspace, etc, and Israel can send military incursions in at any time.

How much a Palestinian state would differ from that depends on what deal gets struck. Israeli negotiators seem to be interested in maintaining much of the above to at least some extent.

Charliegrs posted:

Ok but say the Palestinian territories are a separate country someday. Would that be good enough for the Palestinians? Or do they want more land than just Gaza and the West Bank?

Ideally they want all of their land back, much as Israel ideally wants all of the West Bank. But they're willing to settle for the 1967 borders as a reasonable middle ground.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
It might be productive to spend more time looking at the support structure and historical operations of the more absolutist groups on each side of the conflict- who funds them, how they retain support within their broader polity, etc.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

the holy poopacy posted:

I'm sure they'd want more land, but a majority of Palestinians seem to regard the West Bank + Gaza as an acceptable solution. The main sticking point is how much of the West Bank.

The West Bank is more than 10 times larger and has at least 50 times as many settlers as the Gaza relocation. Part of the reason that the Gaza settlements were pulled out was the fact that they were so insignificant that maintaining them was untenable. I can't say that it ever would come to anything resembling civil war but it would certainly be many times uglier than the Gaza pullout, which as you say is already contentious.

Right, I agree with you entirely about the logistics and popularity of it. I'm just saying that the idea that a literal civil war would break out in Israel is a little far out.

Raenir Salazar posted:

I feel like the potential compromise here if Israel were willing to act in good faith would be to freeze further settlement construction but have the tax income given to the PA in compensation and ban land sales/trade to anyone other than the PA to slowly reclaim the land via attrition. With the settlements de facto remaining under partial Israeli administrative for the duration? If removing them non violently is off the table or impossible.

The most recent peace plan lets Israel keep part of the West Bank with some settlements and proposes land swaps where Israel gives up some its land to make the Palestinian state more contiguous.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Oct 13, 2023

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Neurolimal posted:

Genuinely "yeah we are 100% for the slaughter, crush the untermenschen beneath your heel"

I honestly cant imagine supporting Biden in the next election. You can remind yourself that Trump would have been just as bad right now, but he's not in the seat. Biden is, and he's giving two thumbs up to this.

Setting aside the obvious monstrous immorality of it, I also don't get it from a cynical self-interested Western perspective. Like what benefit or national interest is being served in the West by giving Israel a blank check to lay waste to Gaza and making us even more complicit in their actions.

As you yourself have said, this is just going to further polarize attitudes and enrage public opinion in the Middle East, making it even more anti-western, and putting pressure on allied/vassal governments, at a time where those attitudes are being tested and challenged by China and Russia.

I just don't see any practical or tangible gain for Western to take such a tough stance here. Appealing to pro-Israeli lobbies and islamophobic constituencies? Wanting to look tough and like a hard man making hard decisions, etc?

Grah. So loving frustrating and tragic how inevitable this all now seems.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

CuddleCryptid posted:

Fair point, and I am using them interchangeably. If someone said to destroy the nation of Palestine then it would be indeed questionable

Questionable. It would only be questionable if someone said to destroy the nation of Palestine and make their people face a reckoning! You would be able to ask questions. Not a call for genocide, not even bad, not even something that demands questions, just questionable. Something you are able to question. That's all we can say about "destroy the nation of Palestine, its people must face a reckoning." That it is possible to have questions about it!

Reasonable people know what it means when you say "the nation of Palestine must be destroyed, its people must face a reckoning." It means the atrocities we're seeing right now.

You are so eager to give every benefit of the doubt that you're thinking and speaking unreasonably, in defense of unambiguously bloodthirsty genocidal rhetoric.

EDIT:

daslog posted:

I have two questions that I hope someone can help me out with.

1) When Netanyahu said "every Hamas member is a dead man" (quote from CBS) does that include the political wing and Hamas members outside of Gaza?

Rhetorically yes. Practically, Israel can't touch the Hamas members outside Gaza, so they'll be replaced with (tens of) thousands of civilian casualties.

quote:

2) Is there a good podcast that people would recommend that is covering this current conflict in detail? Something reasonably neutral and reliable would be preferred.

Radio War Nerd and American Prestige have both been helpful for me.

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Oct 13, 2023

daslog
Dec 10, 2008

#essereFerrari
I have two questions that I hope someone can help me out with.

1) When Netanyahu said "every Hamas member is a dead man" (quote from CBS) does that include the political wing and Hamas members outside of Gaza?

2) Is there a good podcast that people would recommend that is covering this current conflict in detail? Something reasonably neutral and reliable would be preferred.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Discendo Vox posted:

It might be productive to spend more time looking at the support structure and historical operations of the more absolutist groups on each side of the conflict- who funds them, how they retain support within their broader polity, etc.

I apologize to everyone if this is a really ignorant comment, but how many groups on either the Israeli or Palestinian side are not absolutist at this point?

It sounds like everyone Likud and rightward (which seems to be the Israeli political mainstream whether we like it or not) abandoned the two state approach a long time ago. How much does the Israeli "left" really feel passionate about a two state arrangement? It seems geographically and logistically impossible, but at the same time the only way forward that isn't solved by a horrible displacement or murder of an entire people.

I know even less of the various political factions within the West Bank and Gaza. It sounds like the Palestinian Authority views the 2 state solution as the only viable way forward, but not many others do.

Sorry if I'm not helping anyone by venting my despair.

Brucolac
Jun 14, 2012

daslog posted:

1) When Netanyahu said "every Hamas member is a dead man" (quote from CBS) does that include the political wing and Hamas members outside of Gaza?

Netanyahu is not a man known for nuance.

Decon
Nov 22, 2015


Tigey posted:

Setting aside the obvious monstrous immorality of it, I also don't get it from a cynical self-interested Western perspective. Like what benefit or national interest is being served in the West by giving Israel a blank check to lay waste to Gaza and making us even more complicit in their actions.

As you yourself have said, this is just going to further polarize attitudes and enrage public opinion in the Middle East, making it even more anti-western, and putting pressure on allied/vassal governments, at a time where those attitudes are being tested and challenged by China and Russia.

I just don't see any practical or tangible gain for Western to take such a tough stance here. Appealing to pro-Israeli lobbies and islamophobic constituencies? Wanting to look tough and like a hard man making hard decisions, etc?

Grah. So loving frustrating and tragic how inevitable this all now seems.

My cynical, gut reaction to both short term and long term gains is that it'll make defense contractors a fuckload of money.

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012
https://twitter.com/ReutersPR/status/1712871805344506097

We are deeply saddened to announce that one of our journalists was fatally exfoliated in a Hamas-instigated explosive incident with a defensive projectile.

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize to everyone if this is a really ignorant comment, but how many groups on either the Israeli or Palestinian side are not absolutist at this point?

It sounds like everyone Likud and rightward (which seems to be the Israeli political mainstream whether we like it or not) abandoned the two state approach a long time ago. How much does the Israeli "left" really feel passionate about a two state arrangement? It seems geographically and logistically impossible, but at the same time the only way forward that isn't solved by a horrible displacement or murder of an entire people.

I know even less of the various political factions within the West Bank and Gaza. It sounds like the Palestinian Authority views the 2 state solution as the only viable way forward, but not many others do.

Sorry if I'm not helping anyone by venting my despair.

The Zionist left in Israel (who still support a two state solution) is essentially dead. Meretz and Labor poll about 6%.

The non-Zionist left (the Israeli Arab parties, including Hadash which has a few leftist Jews) also support a two state solution and poll around 10%

The haredi ultra-religious parties mainly only care about their own thing but generally support the status quo and poll around 14%

The centrist parties (Yesh Atid, National Union) support the status quo (which, btw is literally dictionary definiton apartheid - quasi-independent enclaves to ensure Palestinians don't get citizenship, with the best land reserved for Israelis). They poll around 27% (considerably more now since Likud's support has collapsed)

The right-wing parties (Likud, Yisrael Beitenu) support eventual annexation or the status quo depending on the day of the week and who you ask. They poll around 28% (considerably less now)

The fascist parties (Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit) support immediate annexation and ethnic cleansing. They poll around 11%.

Outrail
Jan 4, 2009

www.sapphicrobotica.com
:roboluv: :love: :roboluv:

Decon posted:

My cynical, gut reaction to both short term and long term gains is that it'll make defense contractors a fuckload of money.

I'm sure an American led forever lasting peacekeeping mission with minimal American lives lost would be the preferred option for a bunch of US interests.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Neurolimal posted:

https://twitter.com/ReutersPR/status/1712871805344506097

We are deeply saddened to announce that one of our journalists was fatally exfoliated in a Hamas-instigated explosive incident with a defensive projectile.

I don't think Reuters should be mocked for hesitating to say more until they know more for a fact. Obviously what probably happened is unambiguous, but news stations should use a higher standard.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize to everyone if this is a really ignorant comment, but how many groups on either the Israeli or Palestinian side are not absolutist at this point?

It sounds like everyone Likud and rightward (which seems to be the Israeli political mainstream whether we like it or not) abandoned the two state approach a long time ago. How much does the Israeli "left" really feel passionate about a two state arrangement? It seems geographically and logistically impossible, but at the same time the only way forward that isn't solved by a horrible displacement or murder of an entire people.

I know even less of the various political factions within the West Bank and Gaza. It sounds like the Palestinian Authority views the 2 state solution as the only viable way forward, but not many others do.

Sorry if I'm not helping anyone by venting my despair.

This is largely why I believe this shift would be a more productive line of discussion, as opposed to "venting despair".

As a subforum that is supposedly moderated for the purpose of education, I think this is a subject where there is more knowledge that we can share with each other, rather than despair-inducing tweets, attacks and information of dubious quality. I don't think Likud or the right wing represent the Israeli mainstream any more than Hamas represents Palestine- and it would be helpful to understand the specifics of sub-entities in their political constituency, such as the settler movement groups or the fundamentalist religious sects that drive the political ratcheting effect at play on both sides. At a minimum, understanding the internal political dynamics of Israel and Palestine would be a way to understand the how, the causality, of the current situation.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Oct 13, 2023

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Lum_ posted:

The Zionist left in Israel (who still support a two state solution) is essentially dead. Meretz and Labor poll about 6%.

The non-Zionist left (the Israeli Arab parties, including Hadash which has a few leftist Jews) also support a two state solution and poll around 10%

The haredi ultra-religious parties mainly only care about their own thing but generally support the status quo and poll around 14%

The centrist parties (Yesh Atid, National Union) support the status quo (which, btw is literally dictionary definiton apartheid - quasi-independent enclaves to ensure Palestinians don't get citizenship, with the best land reserved for Israelis). They poll around 27% (considerably more now since Likud's support has collapsed)

The right-wing parties (Likud, Yisrael Beitenu) support eventual annexation or the status quo depending on the day of the week and who you ask. They poll around 28% (considerably less now)

The fascist parties (Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit) support immediate annexation and ethnic cleansing. They poll around 11%.

So basically around 80% of the Israeli electorate are basically not going to let the Palestinians have self-governance?

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

Eric Cantonese posted:

So basically around 80% of the Israeli electorate are basically not going to let the Palestinians have self-governance?

Correct. The two-state solution in internal Israeli politics is essentially dead. The left, which were its main champion, have collapsed.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
What does "self-governance" mean in this context: does it imply a Palestinian government that can effectively enforce the commitments it makes on its own people, including enforcing disarmament of non-state militias and a cessation of rocket attacks? If the PA struggles to halt terrorism in Jenin, can it hope to effectively govern far outside core Palestinian cities?

There's a chicken-and-egg problem here where Palestine cannot obtain responsible government because it cannot achieve responsible government

ronya fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Oct 13, 2023

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Civilized Fishbot posted:

I don't think Reuters should be mocked for hesitating to say more until they know more for a fact. Obviously what probably happened is unambiguous, but news stations should use a higher standard.

AP reports that an Israeli shell just happened to land on some journalists.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1712869176065323287

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
The Saudis have put a halt on the normalization talks with Israel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-13/israel-latest-idf-urges-evacuation-of-gaza-city-signaling-incursion?srnd=premium

quote:

Saudi Arabia has decided to pause diplomacy to normalize ties with Israel given the flareup in violence between Israeli forces and Hamas, people familiar with the matter said, in a major blow to President Joe Biden’s ambitions for the Middle East.

Saudi officials communicated Riyadh’s position to the US in recent days, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private communications. They described the move as a pause and not as an end to the diplomacy.

I imagine this isn't a surprise to anyone.

Discendo Vox posted:

This is largely why I believe this shift would be a more productive line of discussion, as opposed to "venting despair".

As a subforum that is supposedly moderated for the purpose of education, I think this is a subject where there is more knowledge that we can share with each other, rather than despair-inducing tweets, attacks and information of dubious quality. I don't think Likud or the right wing represent the Israeli mainstream any more than Hamas represents Palestine- and it would be helpful to understand the specifics of sub-entities in their political constituency, such as the settler movement groups or the fundamentalist religious sects that drive the political ratcheting effect at play on both sides. At a minimum, understanding the internal political dynamics of Israel and Palestine would be a way to understand the how, the causality, of the current situation.

My understanding, and I'm glad to be corrected, is that Likud and other right-leaning parties have benefitted from touting that their stance leads to a greater security for Israeli citizens. I don't think they're getting by on any kind of popular economic policies. The main appeal has been appealing to what Israelis believe to be necessary to be safe or what various voters' religious beliefs dictate to be the best way to govern. Again, I am happy to be corrected on this.

This is the most recent piece I could find regarding nationwide feelings about the 2 state solution:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/26/israelis-have-grown-more-skeptical-of-a-two-state-solution/

quote:

Only 35% of Israelis think “a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully,” according to the survey, which was conducted in March and April, prior to the latest violence in the West Bank. That represents a decline of 9 percentage points since 2017 and 15 points since 2013.

The feeling that peaceful coexistence is possible has decreased over the past decade among both Arabs and Jews living in Israel.

Still, views among Arab Israelis have shifted significantly more than they have among Jewish Israelis. Arab Israelis are now 33 points less likely than they were in 2013 to see the possibility of a peaceful coexistence between Israel and an independent Palestinian state. Jewish Israelis are 14 points less likely to see this possibility than in 2013.

[...]

While Israelis broadly lack confidence in a peaceful coexistence between Israel and an independent Palestinian state, opinions vary widely across Israeli groups. For example, those who do not support Israel’s current governing coalition are much more likely than those who support the governing coalition to believe a way can be found to coexist peacefully (54% vs. 10%).

There are also large divides along ideological lines: 73% of Israelis on the political left say a way can be found for two states to coexist, compared with 53% of those in the center and 14% of those on the right.

Arab Israelis are somewhat more likely than Jewish Israelis to express optimism in the possibility of a peaceful coexistence with an independent Palestinian state (41% vs. 32%).

There are strong divisions between Jewish groups: 61% of Hiloni Jews say a peaceful coexistence is possible, while just 17% of Masorti Jews and 7% of Haredi/Dati Jews say the same.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://x.com/seamus_malek/status/1712871959619686576?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

IDF going out of their way to make their warnings as impossible to follow as possible.

nessin
Feb 7, 2010

Main Paineframe posted:

The majority of the West Bank (including most of its useful agricultural land) is under direct Israeli military control, with Israeli residents subject to standard Israeli law and Palestinian residents subject to the dictates of an Israeli military government. The rest of it is split into a number of small Palestinian enclaves that are nominally under the partial or complete control of the Palestinian Authority, but are separated from each other by Israeli-controlled territory. The Palestinian territories don't control their own borders, airspace, etc, and Israel can send military incursions in at any time.

How much a Palestinian state would differ from that depends on what deal gets struck. Israeli negotiators seem to be interested in maintaining much of the above to at least some extent.

Ideally they want all of their land back, much as Israel ideally wants all of the West Bank. But they're willing to settle for the 1967 borders as a reasonable middle ground.

If they were willing to settle for that, why didn't they negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to get that land instead of working with Egypt to trigger the Six Day War?

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

nessin posted:

If they were willing to settle for that, why didn't they negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to get that land instead of working with Egypt to trigger the Six Day War?

Because what an almost entirely different group of people (EDIT: in that the individual people that are members of that group today are almost entirely different than the individuals that were members of it in 1967) wanted half a century ago is different than what people there want now?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



I don’t see how a two-state solution is viable at this point even if the Israeli public and government decided tomorrow that they supported it. Hamas controls what is left of Gaza, Fatah is not very popular in the West Bank and often seen as a tool of the Israeli government, and more importantly, no politician is going to agree to remove all of the settlements in the West Bank that would have to be removed for the Palestinians to have any land.

the other hand
Dec 14, 2003


43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade
"Ultima Ratio Liberalium"

Tigey posted:

Setting aside the obvious monstrous immorality of it, I also don't get it from a cynical self-interested Western perspective. Like what benefit or national interest is being served in the West by giving Israel a blank check to lay waste to Gaza and making us even more complicit in their actions.

As you yourself have said, this is just going to further polarize attitudes and enrage public opinion in the Middle East, making it even more anti-western, and putting pressure on allied/vassal governments, at a time where those attitudes are being tested and challenged by China and Russia.

I just don't see any practical or tangible gain for Western to take such a tough stance here. Appealing to pro-Israeli lobbies and islamophobic constituencies? Wanting to look tough and like a hard man making hard decisions, etc?


I think you nailed it in the last paragraph, at least for the US. I don’t think it’s about the national interest at all. It’s about elected officials fearing that they won’t be re-elected and will lose power if they try to restrain Israel in any way. US public discourse on Israel/Palestine is pretty unhinged.

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VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Randalor posted:

Has there ever been a time where Israel wasn't trying, at the very least, to slowly crush Palestine out of existence? Like, was there ever a point where there was an actual, legitimate hope that the two states could exist peacefully, or was it just always downhill and the world just turned a blind eye to Israel?

Oslo accords under Rabin.

quote:

On September 13, 1993, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Negotiator Mahmoud Abbas signed a Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements, commonly referred to as the “Oslo Accord,” at the White House.



quote:

In November 1995, Rabin was assassinated by Yigal Amir, an Israeli who opposed the Oslo Accords on religious grounds. Rabin’s murder was followed by a string of terrorist attacks by Hamas, which undermined support for the Labor Party in Israel’s May 1996 elections. New Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu hailed from the Likud Party, which had historically opposed Palestinian statehood and withdrawal from the occupied territories.

Hmmm...

quote:

“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” the prime minister reportedly said at a 2019 meeting of his Likud party. “This is part of our strategy — to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”

VideoGameVet fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Oct 13, 2023

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