(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Israel has been maintaining a polite distance from Ukraine so far; Zelenskyy’s proposed visit would do a lot to solidify Israeli goodwill that could translate into tangible support. Ethically it is indeed dubious, but strategically it’s a no-brainer. It even helps to put more pressure on the Republicans to support Ukraine.
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Oct 13, 2023 12:04
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Chicken Butt posted:Israel has been maintaining a polite distance from Ukraine so far; Zelenskyy’s proposed visit would do a lot to solidify Israeli goodwill that could translate into tangible support. Ethically it is indeed dubious, but strategically it’s a no-brainer. It even helps to put more pressure on the Republicans to support Ukraine. Also Putin placed his bet on Hamas, going against his preceding successful diplomacy with Israel
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Oct 13, 2023 12:36
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:That's true, but I was under the impression that the attacks in the northeast were best characterised as skirmishing, intended to distract the Ukrainian army. The northeast is also where Ukrainian troops are least fortified. No, fighting has been really intense with tanks regularly committed. This has been reflected in the open source data, with the Russians losing significant numbers of tanks for the last ~2 months in attacks along the eastern front even as the southern front (and Ukrainian offensive losses) slowed down: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine/master/Plots/2023-06-01/current_total.jpg I think from the Russian point of view, the last few months have been probing and shaping operations designed to get into a position for a large scale attack. With the fall mud approaching, now would be the time to go, so not that weird.
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Oct 13, 2023 16:27
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https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1712876921770443044?t=Sm78e_dsDAHyZ3Tv_3gXDw&s=19 I didn't have "North Korea gets a more powerful military" on my Geopolitical Fallout From Russia's Invasion bingo card, but here we are.
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Oct 13, 2023 18:16
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Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1712876921770443044?t=Sm78e_dsDAHyZ3Tv_3gXDw&s=19 Oh no, lovely Russian weapons that N. Korea can't afford to maintain or use. Whatever shall the world do.
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Oct 13, 2023 18:30
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Pook Good Mook posted:Oh no, lovely Russian weapons that N. Korea can't afford to maintain or use. Whatever shall the world do. Given the nature of the fight, do NK weapons have to be that advanced to cause Ukraine major problems? I could be wrong, but I don't think so.
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Oct 13, 2023 18:43
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Pook Good Mook posted:Oh no, lovely Russian weapons that N. Korea can't afford to maintain or use. Whatever shall the world do. I don't mean to be rude, but I think this is naively, patronizingly wrong. Russia's Khinzal (hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile) basically requires a Patriot PAC-3 to shoot down. Russia's Lancet munition has been very effective, particularly in a counter-battery role against artillery which lingers too long too close to the front. Russian electronic warfare capabilities remain very effective. And on and on. North Korea can absolutely use technology transfers for such systems, and can absolutely maintain them. While their level of maintenance is probably not up to US standards, it's probably better than Germany's.
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Oct 13, 2023 18:44
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Ynglaur posted:I don't mean to be rude, but I think this is naively, patronizingly wrong. Even just helping Russia keep up its stocks of working artillery shells would be a major problem, no?
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Oct 13, 2023 18:47
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Eric Cantonese posted:Even just helping Russia keep up its stocks of working artillery shells would be a major problem, no? Absolutely, and for the same reason it's been so critical for the West to supply Ukraine with shells and barrels.
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Oct 13, 2023 18:49
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F-16 training news: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/ukrainian-pilots-expected-to-start-f-16-training-in-arizona-next-week-00121460 quote:Ukrainian pilots expected to start F-16 training in Arizona next week
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Oct 13, 2023 20:42
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Who would have thought that in 2023 we'd be in a world where the Axis of Evil became a real thing that actually collaborates on weapons technology. Also Russian rocket motors are still in use in US launchers, so not really accurate to say they're bad. We're still using them!
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Oct 13, 2023 20:44
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Axis of evil has always been a thing, it's just been naively slept on for a decade and a half.
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Oct 13, 2023 21:02
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Seems to me that Soviet era engineering was pretty remarkable actually, it mostly comes down to a difference in design philosophy (and production numbers) so it's not really fair to compare Soviet era equipment to their NATO counterparts 1:1 they had different goals.
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Oct 13, 2023 21:08
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evil_bunnY posted:There's not going to be any escalation in Israel. The IDF will needlessly wipe out a horrendous number of Palestinians, most of them young civies, and Gaza will go back to being the largest open air prison in the world. Well yeah thats my assumption too, I'm just saying decisionmakers in Russia might have seen it differently. (but actually I got the dates wrong, heavy bombardment of Avdiivka started on 10/6 so it's unlikely the events are related)
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Oct 13, 2023 21:13
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Popete posted:Seems to me that Soviet era engineering was pretty remarkable actually, it mostly comes down to a difference in design philosophy (and production numbers) so it's not really fair to compare Soviet era equipment to their NATO counterparts 1:1 they had different goals. A lot of the equipment was robust and easy to learn to use and maintain. The usual downside at least with Soviet cars was that you needed to maintain them all the time because they were actively falling apart. For Soviet citizens themselves the main downside was that receiving a car might take a couple of years or more, so it's understandable that people tolerated that quality as long as they got a car in the first place. Now there are some valid questions about sending T-62's to combat in 2023 and such, but then again any tank is better than no tank, all tanks are vulnerable, and it's the indirect fire game (artillery, air and drone attacks) that make or break most offenses imo.
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Oct 13, 2023 21:40
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Axis of evil has always been a thing, it's just been naively slept on for a decade and a half. Wasn't Bush's "Axis of Evil" Iran-Iraq-NK? IIRC NK was surprised and indignant they were even on that list.
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Oct 13, 2023 22:30
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Fuschia tude posted:Wasn't Bush's "Axis of Evil" Iran-Iraq-NK? IIRC NK was surprised and indignant they were even on that list. I thought it was Iran, since they were actively helping us in Afghanistan (allowing border incursions, rescuing pilots, etc). John Bolton will never have enough Iranian blood to oil his mustache.
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Oct 13, 2023 23:00
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Nenonen posted:A lot of the equipment was robust and easy to learn to use and maintain. The usual downside at least with Soviet cars was that you needed to maintain them all the time because they were actively falling apart. For Soviet citizens themselves the main downside was that receiving a car might take a couple of years or more, so it's understandable that people tolerated that quality as long as they got a car in the first place. There is a guy here in Austin that drives a Yugo (with a license plate that says "Commie") and I am so curious how the hell he manages to maintain it and get parts etc.
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Oct 13, 2023 23:22
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D-Pad posted:There is a guy here in Austin that drives a Yugo (with a license plate that says "Commie") and I am so curious how the hell he manages to maintain it and get parts etc. https://www.yugoparts.com/ Plus they're based in Texas
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Oct 13, 2023 23:33
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Nenonen posted:Now there are some valid questions about sending T-62's to combat in 2023 and such, but then again any tank is better than no tank, all tanks are vulnerable, and it's the indirect fire game (artillery, air and drone attacks) that make or break most offenses imo. Well yeah, at the very least their a portable artillery piece. As long as they have the ability to fire and move about a bit their worth something. I'd imagine the maintenance for something that old would be a nightmare though.
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Oct 13, 2023 23:42
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fatherboxx posted:Also Putin placed his bet on Hamas, going against his preceding successful diplomacy with Israel Can you elaborate on this or cite evidence? I believe Putin has recently criticized the Israeli treatment of the gaza strip but "placing his bet on Hamas"? Really???
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Oct 14, 2023 00:10
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adebisi lives posted:Can you elaborate on this or cite evidence? I believe Putin has recently criticized the Israeli treatment of the gaza strip but "placing his bet on Hamas"? Really??? Putin has a strong alliance with Iran and Syria, and no great love of Israel particularly after they supported Ukraine diplomatically. Hamas doesn’t have a lot to offer him directly, and he won’t want to provoke Israel directly, but he’s going to be happy to take advantage of the conflict as much as possible in the hopes it will distract the US and tie up potential aid to Ukraine. quote:"I haven't seen any evidence of direct Russian weapons supplies to Hamas, or of the Russian military training Hamas operatives," says Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russia and the Middle East at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
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Oct 14, 2023 00:34
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Mr. Apollo posted:https://www.yugoparts.com/ Huh. Never would have thought there were enough these days in America to make a business out of it. Dude passed me going 70 when I saw him I can't imagine it's anything but a death trap but you can't say he isn't ideologically committed.
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Oct 14, 2023 00:49
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Kaal posted:Putin has a strong alliance with Iran and Syria, and no great love of Israel particularly after they supported Ukraine diplomatically. Hamas doesn’t have a lot to offer him directly, and he won’t want to provoke Israel directly, but he’s going to be happy to take advantage of the conflict as much as possible in the hopes it will distract the US and tie up potential aid to Ukraine. I fail to see how this is supports the argument that Putin has "doubled down" or meaningfully shifted Russia's position on Israel and Hamas. Geopolitics are not a white and black, team A versus team B clear cut scenario in a lot of these relationships. Russia has similar "grey" relationships with countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan, to name a few, where they will sometimes have overlapping interests and cooperate, and be completely at odds in other areas.
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Oct 14, 2023 01:05
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dr_rat posted:Well yeah, at the very least their a portable artillery piece. As long as they have the ability to fire and move about a bit their worth something. FYI, they used the T-62's as tanks in this week's big assault. Not artillery. They've been showing up periodically on the front line being used as tanks elsewhere. We can put that myth to bed now. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Oct 14, 2023 |
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Oct 14, 2023 01:27
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Warbadger posted:FYI, they used the T-62's as tanks in this week's big assault. Not artillery. They've been showing up periodically on the front line being used as tanks elsewhere. We can put that myth to bed now. Is anyone keeping a daily tally of new documented losses like Oryx used to post? I see the aggregate numbers but I'm too lazy to wade through and figure out what they're losing.
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Oct 14, 2023 01:40
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saratoga posted:Is anyone keeping a daily tally of new documented losses like Oryx used to post? I see the aggregate numbers but I'm too lazy to wade through and figure out what they're losing. I think WarSpotting was supposed to continue where Oryx left off? https://ukr.warspotting.net/russia/ They do have a date attached, but it is a bit hard to get around a different format.
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Oct 14, 2023 04:13
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Kaal posted:Putin has a strong alliance with Iran and Syria, Russia and Iran are not allies. In some areas they have cooperated or found common ground, but they are not at all allied by the common definition in English. Russia and Syria are partners in many ways, but they do not have an alliance, military or otherwise. So you’re starting from a point that’s not well supported.
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Oct 14, 2023 05:49
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mlmp08 posted:Russia and Iran are not allies. In some areas they have cooperated or found common ground, but they are not at all allied by the common definition in English. Russia and Iran's relationship is a lot more complicated than it often is made out to be (although the two have grown considerably closer over the last decade for a number of reasons, not the least of which are common enemies and common causes and particularly close over the last two years). Suggesting that Syria and Russia are not allies (or at least something de facto quite similar) is a strange one to me after Russians have been fighting and dying in Syria for the last decade and indeed the relationship is commonly referred to and viewed as a close alliance.
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Oct 14, 2023 06:20
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mlmp08 posted:Russia and Iran are not allies. In some areas they have cooperated or found common ground, but they are not at all allied by the common definition in English. As is said in the article that I included earlier, Russia and Iran have become closer and closer in recent years to the point that the US now considers them to have a “full-scale defense partnership”. This has been referred to several times over the last year, and the Biden administration declassified information in June showcasing the nature of this relationship. Now whether this constitutes an “alliance” - particularly when neither group is particularly trustworthy - is going to be in the eye of the beholder. Certainly they are exchanging military goods and technologies, conducting joint training events, supporting each other militarily in Syria and other regions, offering each other diplomatic support, and cooperating on a range of issues. quote:At the same time, Russia has offered Iran “unprecedented” defense cooperation, [National Security Council spokesperson John] Kirby said. Tehran is seeking billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment from Moscow, including Su-35 fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/united-states-security-council-russia-iran-weapons-00101191 https://ecfr.eu/publication/alone-together-how-the-war-in-ukraine-shapes-the-russian-iranian-relationship/?amp Kaal fucked around with this message at 06:29 on Oct 14, 2023 |
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Oct 14, 2023 06:22
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Kaal posted:As is said in the article that included earlier, Russia and Iran have become closer and closer in recent years to the point that the US now considers them to have a “full-scale defense partnership”. In US diplomatic parlance, partnership is explicitly not the same thing as alliance. This is why the US is very careful when talking about Allies vs Partners vs "Allies and Partners." So even boiling down a complex relationship to saying they are partners is by extension stating that the US does not consider them to be allies. Because they aren't. Herstory Begins Now posted:Russia and Iran's relationship is a lot more complicated than it often is made out to be (although the two have grown considerably closer over the last decade for a number of reasons, not the least of which are common enemies and common causes and particularly close over the last two years). Suggesting that Syria and Russia are not allies (or at least something de facto quite similar) is a strange one to me after Russians have been fighting and dying in Syria for the last decade and indeed the relationship is commonly referred to and viewed as a close alliance. When Israel attacks Syria, it does not draw Russia into Syria's defense. Syria and Russia cooperate on missions like counter-ISIS and also countering rebel forces. Their relationship is one of cooperation and partnership, but they are not defensive allies, and neither one has any obligation to defend the other from attack. Syria used to have a military alliance with the Soviet Union, but they do not have that relationship with Russia. The US and government of Iraq, for example, did combined military missions against ISIS, but Iraq is not a US ally. It is a "partner." When the US and a bunch of countries went to war against Iraq in the Gulf War, there were some ally members of that coalition, but a lot of those nations were members of a coalition, but they were not allies. The US militarily supports Ukraine and arms Ukraine and advises Ukraine, but Ukraine is not an ally of the United States. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 06:36 on Oct 14, 2023 |
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Oct 14, 2023 06:34
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mlmp08 posted:In US diplomatic parlance, partnership is explicitly not the same thing as alliance. This is why the US is very careful when talking about Allies vs Partners vs "Allies and Partners." So even boiling down a complex relationship to saying they are partners is by extension stating that the US does not consider them to be allies. Because they aren't. As I’m sure you appreciate, you went from talking about the common definition of alliance, to a specifically defined term as used by the US in describing American diplomatic relationships. Russia and Iran, by nature of their autocratic regimes, are going to have very different relationships with each other and other nations.
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Oct 14, 2023 06:44
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Kaal posted:As I’m sure you appreciate, you went from talking about the common definition of alliance, to a specifically defined term as used by the US in describing American diplomatic relationships. Russia and Iran, by nature of their autocratic regimes, are going to have very different relationships with each other and other nations. Russia does not have a "strong alliance" with Iran, as you claimed. They have trade deals that include selling arms* to one another, and they often agree on saying stuff like "My biggest adversaries are bad." If that is your definition of alliance, then there are so many countries allied as hell, to the point of the word being kind of meaningless. You should read this article you linked and notice how they are including the argument that Iran and Russia are not allies, but cooperate in various areas and compete in others and are not comfortable with the idea of an alliance. Every mention of an alliance in this article is about how Iran and Russia do not have an alliance and would be highly wary of forming one. https://ecfr.eu/publication/alone-together-how-the-war-in-ukraine-shapes-the-russian-iranian-relationship/?amp In your argument that Russia and Iran are allied, you cited an article that says they are not allied and may never be comfortable becoming allied in the future. *I should clarify here that they sell some, select arms to one another. They aren't remotely on the level of sharing/selling their most advanced tech and capabilities. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Oct 14, 2023 |
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Oct 14, 2023 06:54
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If your point is that one cannot be strongly allied because one can only be formally allied, then I certainly won’t contest it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 14, 2023 07:20
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My point is that you started with an uninformed and incorrect claim and used that to springboard to an even more poorly supported point. When you were called on it, you posted up articles that directly contradicted your central claim, but you represented them otherwise. I think I was pretty clear when I said that your own citations disagreed with your stated claim. To be fair, if someone doesn't read your post, but reads this article you linked, they'll have a much better understanding of Iran's relationships with Russia https://ecfr.eu/publication/alone-together-how-the-war-in-ukraine-shapes-the-russian-iranian-relationship/?amp I guess also to be fair, even internal to that article, they can't really decide what an ally is and switch back and forth between meanings as they change paragraphs. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Oct 14, 2023 |
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Oct 14, 2023 07:23
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Can Russia and Belarus be called allies? Russia and Armenia? I would say yes to the former and no to the latter despite all of them being members of the same military alliance. Although Belarus is not sending in soldiers (yet) when Ukrainian missiles and drones strike targets in Russia, we have words of unwavering support from Lukashenko, full diplomatic support in international organisations, and occasionally material support in the form of providing territory for Russian military to conduct attacks, medical assistance to Russian soldiers, etc. That that alliance may crumble at any point or that both allies may have some hidden agendas is immaterial, in my opinion. Even though Iran denies it, its direct contribution to the Russian war effort is probably more valuable right now than that of Belarus, but whether they should be called allies or fellow anti-American travellers is open to interpretation. If Iran is not an ally of Russia, then Ukraine also has no allies, just a bunch of countries helping out and saying words.
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Oct 14, 2023 08:59
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adebisi lives posted:Can you elaborate on this or cite evidence? I believe Putin has recently criticized the Israeli treatment of the gaza strip but "placing his bet on Hamas"? Really??? Kaal posted:Putin has a strong alliance with Iran and Syria, and no great love of Israel particularly after they supported Ukraine diplomatically. Hamas doesn’t have a lot to offer him directly, and he won’t want to provoke Israel directly, but he’s going to be happy to take advantage of the conflict as much as possible in the hopes it will distract the US and tie up potential aid to Ukraine. During the invasion into Ukraine, Putin actually managed to maintain a very stable relationship with Israel - the latter has been extremely cautious in supporting Ukraine farther than token diplomatic support and humanitarian aid. Also Russia officially never tried to comment on I/P situation in past years in substantial manner, however now, the rhetoric from the top (I would ignore propagandists and low level scum like Medvedev, who usually improvise on the spot) is extremely adversarial: instantly going after US for some reason right after Hamas attack and invoking siege of Leningrad certainly means the Bibi/Putin honeymoon is over. https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-israeli-ground-operation-gaza-will-result-civilian-losses-2023-10-13/ I don't think it is going to affect Israel/Ukraine relations in short term, since Israel has no time to pay attention there, however I can't see Putin maintaining the diplomatic equilibrium and protecting his interests in Syria from Israel.
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Oct 14, 2023 12:03
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https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1713071147414180001?t=SmQe_gOCDKP9QuBKRo-BLw&s=19 I can't validate the data, but if it's true that's a big deal, not least because Russia is in the middle of a fairly sizable-albeit failing-attack right now. Russian doctrine is predicate upon artillery a, and requires artillery superiority as much as US doctrine requires air superiority.
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Oct 14, 2023 13:12
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1713071147414180001?t=SmQe_gOCDKP9QuBKRo-BLw&s=19
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Oct 14, 2023 13:49
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That chart suggests a level of certainty that I take some issue with, but the trend is pretty well sourced at this point. I think we've talked about Ukraine's counter-artillery campaign a few weeks ago. As far as I can tell Russia isn't so much running out of shells, but rather has artillery positions being suppressed and destroyed.
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Oct 14, 2023 14:11
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