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theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War
https://twitter.com/abc/status/1713300164390035556?s=46

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Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
It's reaaally fuckin dubious to me that frontline troops in a surprise attack are carrying around "top secret" maps and orders, especially in an attack where they know there's a high likelihood of them getting killed or captured behind enemy lines.

Ratoslov
Feb 15, 2012

Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

It's reaaally fuckin dubious to me that frontline troops in a surprise attack are carrying around "top secret" maps and orders, especially in an attack where they know there's a high likelihood of them getting killed or captured behind enemy lines.

Maps and orders that are un-rumpled and so clean you'd swear they came fresh off the printer.

Testekill
Nov 1, 2012

I demand to be taken seriously

:aronrex:

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

It's reaaally fuckin dubious to me that frontline troops in a surprise attack are carrying around "top secret" maps and orders, especially in an attack where they know there's a high likelihood of them getting killed or captured behind enemy lines.

They're watermarked and have a little red top secret at the top of each page.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
It may be productive to compare the docs from the NBC report against the map we get a screenshot of from the headcam vid posted in the NYT article earlier.

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
Like they spent years planning and pulled off an attack so surprising that it caught the IDF literally sleeping, and did it with enough secrecy that their allies didnt know about it until it was happening. But then they were like "Guys don't forget your list of atrocities when you go"

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

It's reaaally fuckin dubious to me that frontline troops in a surprise attack are carrying around "top secret" maps and orders, especially in an attack where they know there's a high likelihood of them getting killed or captured behind enemy lines.

I'd assume these were on commanders and in vehicles, etc. Isn't it routine to have operations manuals in these situations? The grunts don't carry these around, the dude in the Hilux with the radio has these.

I share the skepticism about the watermarks and all, but carrying around plans wouldn't be that's weird, imo.

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

Like they spent years planning and pulled off an attack so surprising that it caught the IDF literally sleeping, and did it with enough secrecy that their allies didnt know about it until it was happening. But then they were like "Guys don't forget your list of atrocities when you go"

That could be proper compartmentalization though. No one low enough knew details until short notice, then "follow these plans."

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009
The NBC report says they were found in the hands of fighters, which sounds like grunts. Perhaps it's better not to just assume something is true and instead expect the IDF to provide corroborating evidence of their claims.

Zzulu
May 15, 2009

(▰˘v˘▰)
Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

Zzulu posted:

Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

That's a good question! Certainly the IDF seems to think it's matters seeing as they gave this to NBC with the understanding it would be talked about in US national media. The NBC headline includes the claim that "Hamas documents show that terrorists intentionally targeted elementary schools and a youth center", which at least for the schools seems like an odd thing to claim - or at least focus on - given that the attack happened around 6 AM on a Saturday during a national holiday.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Zzulu posted:

Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

By alleging that Hamas fighters had a “do your war crimes here”, it makes for a better case for the IDF to do whatever they want.

Discendo Vox posted a good link which shows what these maps look like in reality, the NBC posted ones probably aren’t real.

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~

ummel posted:

I'd assume these were on commanders and in vehicles, etc. Isn't it routine to have operations manuals in these situations? The grunts don't carry these around, the dude in the Hilux with the radio has these.

I share the skepticism about the watermarks and all, but carrying around plans wouldn't be that's weird, imo.

That could be proper compartmentalization though. No one low enough knew details until short notice, then "follow these plans."

Lol I can tell you it is not routine, no normal soldiers should ever have anything labelled Top Secret. I mean, I dont know Hamas, maybe the just dont give a poo poo, but it's like soldier 101 to not do stuff like this.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Nov 5, 2023

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

khwarezm posted:

Usually I'd broadly agree but I was genuinely shocked and sickened by the scale of Hamas's attack in a way that I feel I haven't seen in, say for example, Ukraine's attacks on Russian civilian targets. Like 1000 Israeli civilians dead, would I be right in saying that that's the highest death toll for the Israeli side in a single day since the state was established?
There's something about it that's unusually shocking. I don't know why, but if rockets had hit the rave, that would be bad, even if the same number of people had been killed (which would be unlikely), but it would not be as horrifying as militants walking up to people and shooting them in the face.

Gumball Gumption posted:

Is there a single group who did not have some factions target civilians when they were targeted by civilians of their oppressors? Every group will have members across the political spectrum with matching solutions and will try to enact them.

Hamas likely doesn't see this as an unprovoked escalation by them to attack civilians, they see it as a reprisal for pogroms in the West Bank on Palestinians. They see it as one of many events in a conflict that has included things like this.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/15/middleeast/huwara-west-bank-settler-attack-cmd-intl/index.html

Attacking civilians is morally horrific but it was normalized in this conflict a long long time ago.
Warfare today seems like it has changed in such a way that civilians are much more involved as targets, victims and perpetrators of violence. There are Jewish settlers who perpetuate violence against Palestinian civilians while being protected by the Israeli army. There are Palestinian civilians in Gaza who seemed to just follow Hamas fighters through after they blew holes in the wall and then kidnapped other civilians (some of the people who were dragging captives back to Gaza just seemed like random guys, not the dedicated Hamas death squads, and Hamas might not even know where some of these "hostages" are; there's some Israeli person in some guy's house somewhere in Gaza and nobody has any clue what's going on). In Ukraine, the Russian army shot civilians in Bucha, some of whom were just walking down the street, some whom they thought were collaborators (real or perceived), in a context where civilians were shooting at Russian soldiers or calling in their positions for the Ukrainian army to hit.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Oct 14, 2023

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

mannerup posted:

Going to do some diplomatic summaries of what's going on. Reporting from Axios shows the boiling diplomatic tension over this between Iran and Israel after a week where further escalation is untenable for Iran.

Reuters has also reported that Biden has held calls with both Netanyahu and Abbas as well

Iran's Foreign Minister has also met with senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh according to video provided by a journalist and research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies in Ankara, Turkey.

When Iran talks about getting involve, do they just mean opening up another front with Hezbollah in Lebanon? Also, for the mods, what counts as "Willoposting"?

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


How did somebody get away with calling Norman Finkelstein a Holocaust denier

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

Zzulu posted:

Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

If someone is falsifying documents and seeding them to the Southern Responders Telegram channel, that's a problem. If news cos are picking up that information and disseminating it without any apparent effort to have a native Arabic speaker check them, that's a problem.

Firstly, because even if the forgeries are entirely incidental, it allows distrust over any other claim made on channels disseminating this stuff. Secondly, because if someone is producing first-glance well-made (but on deeper inspection terrible) forgeries like this in the wake of a terrorist attack, you have to ask "who?" and "why?". And secondly because the timing and impact have effects while Israel is busy ethnically cleansing a patch of land.

Regarding the evidence it's a forgery. Start with the numbers. Usually modern Arabic symbols are used in any kind of documentation. CF eg this from jewishpress.com:



The numbers that are there are a really odd font. In order to do something like that you'd have to have a different font setup for your bullets vs your text. That's incredibly awkward to do throughout a document but more likely when you're pasting something in. From, say, Google Translate.

Speaking of, the document is written in a way that people would neither write nor speak in Arabic. It has the obvious feel of being translated from another language.

There's more stuff there. Another poster alluded to the maps mentioned in the report not being the same etc. But it looks like a fairly clumsy forgery, released to the Southern Responders Telegram channel with, by the way, a preceding message saying (and I'm paraphrasing) 'We've got something big coming soon'.

So who? Why?

My own suspicions? Could be that the Israeli government realises it's been losing the information battle so they've been taking measures (Minister of Information has quit, Mark Regev's been resurrected and is doing the rounds). But this is so clumsy I can't believe it would have been dashed off like that by the govt. I suspect some extremist elements in the IDF, like David Ben Zion, are taking advantage of the situation to try to pump out further smoking guns, as though they're needed.


BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

Warfare today seems like it has changed in such a way that civilians are much more involved as targets, victims and perpetrators of violence.

In 1982, under the territory controlled by Israel in Lebanon and with the approval of Ariel Sharon, Phalangist proxies moved into the Sabra and Shatila district and camp and executed some 800-3000+ civilians. Many women and children. I'm talking about lined up against the walls and murdered. The viral post on Twitter suggesting that a pregnant woman had had her belly cut open and baby removed was apparently just someone posting from descriptions of the massacre. There's some harrowing footage you can find in the Al-Jaz documentary from the early 2000s called The Lebanon War (Harb Lubnan), epsiode 10/11 I think - 'The Massacre'.

Warfare has not changed as much as you think, to humanity's eternal shame. And when people claim that this is the bloodiest single day for Israelis, it's worth bearing in mind what happened in 1982 and who was elected by a landslide in Israel 20 years later.

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Ultimately it's beneficial to Israel if the debate stays on the particulars of the Hamas attack (as opposed to the ongoing slaughter in Gaza), and generating confusion around shocking but not particularly relevant details is a good way to do that.

Yes, I'd agree with this though as above it just seems so clumsy it's almost taking the piss if it's produced by the IDF or Israeli Govt. They have people who can speak and write Arabic fluently!

Hong XiuQuan fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Oct 15, 2023

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Ultimately it's beneficial to Israel if the debate stays on the particulars of the Hamas attack (as opposed to the ongoing slaughter in Gaza), and generating confusion around shocking but not particularly relevant details is a good way to do that.

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

There's something about it that's unusually shocking. I don't know why, but if rockets had hit the rave, that would be bad, even if the same number of people had been killed (which would be unlikely), but it would not be as horrifying as militants walking up to people and shooting them in the face.

Of all the types of death in warfare we're not used to actually seeing what happens when hundreds of infantry sweep through a large civilian crowd without giving quarter. It doesn't fit our expected norms of drones hitting weddings, or car bombs in marketplaces. There's no back and forth or heroics. No contest of arms. It is viscerally hitting the same instincts that characters like Jason Voorhees play on in horror films. Violence in a relatable context that we don't associate with violence, and with no way to escape or defend, trapped in the open. It's a literal nightmare scenario.

This sort of reaction is also why Israel has been very careful about keeping journalists away from their ground incursions into Gaza in the past.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Willo567 posted:

When Iran talks about getting involve, do they just mean opening up another front with Hezbollah in Lebanon?
I would assume this is the case. Iran has a lot more sway over Hezbollah, and if Hezbollah starts causing problems on a wide scale in the northern part of Israel, that makes it a lot more difficult for the IDF to keep focus on a potential ground invasion of Gaza.

brain smoothie
Sep 28, 2023

Zzulu posted:

Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

When specific allegations (40 beheaded babies, terror maps etc) are used as part of a broader narrative to create and shore up international support for a military action, it seems important to ensure that they are based in fact. The Niger-Iraq iranium documents and the Nayirah testimony (both on wikipedia) are two good examples of evidence used to justify starting or entering wars, with massive consequences for civilians, (Gulf War and Iraq War) which turned out to be completely false.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

It's reaaally fuckin dubious to me that frontline troops in a surprise attack are carrying around "top secret" maps and orders, especially in an attack where they know there's a high likelihood of them getting killed or captured behind enemy lines.

when the US special forces operation to rescue embassy hostages failed in Iran the Iranians captured a whole bunch of top secret docs from the wreckage of US helicopters including detailed plans of what they were trying to do so it's not unprecdented

Moongrave
Jun 19, 2004

Finally Living Rent Free

Zzulu posted:

Why does this matter? Whether they had a map or not?

Because the news should not be manufacturing consent for an ethnic cleansing.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
I have a question about the Arabic used in the alleged plans. Wouldn't Palestinian Arabic dialects be fairly different from what google offers in translations? Was there at least an attempt at Palestinian Arabic or does it really look like machine translation into Standard Arabic?

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Those documents also may have been disseminated in order to further the ridiculous claims of bibi's supporters that Hamas was assisted by traitors in the Israeli government

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Paladinus posted:

I have a question about the Arabic used in the alleged plans. Wouldn't Palestinian Arabic dialects be fairly different from what google offers in translations?
I don't think so. Would the differences in dialect be more in spoken language rather than written Arabic? (As a general rule, native Arabic speakers use MSA in text, formally, almost all writing is in MSA, etc. across dialects, at least that's my understanding.)

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Oct 15, 2023

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang

Typo posted:

when the US special forces operation to rescue embassy hostages failed in Iran the Iranians captured a whole bunch of top secret docs from the wreckage of US helicopters including detailed plans of what they were trying to do so it's not unprecdented

I do concede your point. But those plans probably called the helicopters "helicopters" and not "make fly boxes", for example.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

How are photos and video coming out of Gaza?

I'd think Israel would have destroyed or disabled the cell towers as a first step, if they were even properly functioning before that. There must be all sorts of jamming going on, especially with the threat of drones vs soldiers on cramped streets.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Willo567 posted:

When Iran talks about getting involve, do they just mean opening up another front with Hezbollah in Lebanon? Also, for the mods, what counts as "Willoposting"?

Mostly just lurking here, but will happily eat this probe. loving everything you post is "Hey guys, this thing looks really bad, could this cause X nation to do Y thing that makes Z world power fire nukes at my balls?"

Either you reference nukes directly or you kind of tiptoe and tease around it. You keep trying to steer the conversation to titillatingly apocalyptic things so you can keep edging for days on the brink of doomgooning. You got threadbanned from 2 separate ukraine threads for this poo poo. Get a loving therapist or something

Yes there is an ignore button but there isn't one to ignore idiots that respond to you seriously

brain smoothie
Sep 28, 2023

Count Roland posted:

How are photos and video coming out of Gaza?

I'd think Israel would have destroyed or disabled the cell towers as a first step, if they were even properly functioning before that. There must be all sorts of jamming going on, especially with the threat of drones vs soldiers on cramped streets.

Apparently there is 1 ISP still functional. Another story I saw said that people were scrambling to get Egyptian SIM cards ahead of Israel cutting off the internet, so I assume that's a thing.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/middleeast/gaza-internet-outage-map-visuals-dg/index.html

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

So Gaza is blockaded these past 16 years and now under siege in which not even water is allowed in, and yet the internet is still running? How is that possible?

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
The supposed captured plans (the version of them shared by NBC, at least) are especially dubious because they apparently involved raiding a primary school to capture child hostages before dawn on Saturday morning. I don't need to explain why that sounds completely moronic, do I?

https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1712945098164518999?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

Darth Walrus fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Oct 15, 2023

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Count Roland posted:

How are photos and video coming out of Gaza?

I'd think Israel would have destroyed or disabled the cell towers as a first step, if they were even properly functioning before that. There must be all sorts of jamming going on, especially with the threat of drones vs soldiers on cramped streets.

Grim. This "content producer for unrwausa" has been posting updates on his feed and story. He's been documenting the evacuation in his story today. Including the civilians getting hit.
:nms: for death, children in distress or dead, etc.
https://instagram.com/motaz_azaiza

ummel fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Oct 15, 2023

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Presumably you can access Israeli or Egyptian networks if you're near the border of Gaza?
e: yeah the article posted above says you can at least in some places.

quote:

Palestinian internet providers can only offer 2G network services, which is much more sluggish than 3G and also more vulnerable to security attacks due to weak encryption. A previous UN report indicated some Gaza residents living near the Israeli border could access 3G and 4G networks from Israeli operators, although the current situation is unclear.
I suppose Israel could shut down nearby 3G/4G coverage if they really wanted to remove all connections.

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Oct 15, 2023

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

Yeah, it's worth remembering that the Gaza Strip is only 25 by 10 miles in its entirety. While that's far enough for reception to get spotty in places, you probably can get *some* sort of signal most places in the strip.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Darth Walrus posted:

The supposed captured plans (the version of them shared by NBC, at least) are especially dubious because they apparently involved raiding a primary school to capture child hostages before dawn on Saturday morning. I don't need to explain why that sounds completely moronic, do I?

You'll need to explain it to me. All I know is Friday is a day of prayer in the arabic/muslim worlds and is usually part of their weekend. Saturday can vary, and in any case I have no idea what the school schedules are like, especially when similar things like sunday school or daycare are counted.

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Count Roland posted:

You'll need to explain it to me. All I know is Friday is a day of prayer in the arabic/muslim worlds and is usually part of their weekend. Saturday can vary, and in any case I have no idea what the school schedules are like, especially when similar things like sunday school or daycare are counted.

In the Jewish world, Saturday (Shabbos) is a day of rest. No Israeli school is meeting that day.

EDIT: And the day of the attacks was also a major religious holiday, which is part of why the army was less prepared and Israelis are so pissed.

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Oct 15, 2023

Lovely Joe Stalin
Jun 12, 2007

Our Lovely Wang
Let alone at that time in the morning.

Szarrukin
Sep 29, 2021
I have sudden flashbacks to Russians finding "Ukraine Nazi assassins hidden den" with Sims 3 copies instead of SIM cards.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Setting the issues with the language aside, the documents were allegedly dated October 2022, so the raid didn't have to be on a Saturday. But it begs the question as to why they didn't adjust the plans when they already knew the date.

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