|
Kalit posted:I doubt Israel needs any additional US military aid to wipe Gaza off the map, even if Hezbollah gets fully involved
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 19, 2024 21:40 |
|
|
Count Roland posted:Yes, but the regional actors don't actually have much on the line here. Lebanon has some threat from Israel; some of its ultra-ultranationalist shitheads lay claim to Lebanon, e.g. page 40: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA175025.pdf - all the way up to and including Beirut! Some lesser ultranationalist shitheads would love to permanently occupy & take up to the Litani river (Tyre). Both are a pretty fringe belief, especially for considering north of the Litani as part of historical Israel, but it's not zero either. Could Hezbollah disarm and would things be calm, like Jordan-Israel? Almost certainly yeah, but due to recent history and the above, I can see why Lebanese would be highly suspicious of Israel (and Syria), given the non-zero number of assholes who think most/all of Lebanon should be "theirs". IIRC Hezbollah's stated aims are only to recover the Shebaa farms ( https://www.thenationalnews.com/wor...rsenal-1.857998 ) although I doubt they would agree to disarm and disband even in the 0.0001% chance that Israel agreed to trade a tiny farm for a peace treaty.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:07
|
|
|
I omitted Lebanon because it is basically a failed state at this point. We only need to consider Hezbollah and their actions. If for some reason Israel annexed part of Lebanon then yeah all bets are off. But the only realistic way Israel goes into Lebanon is if Hezbollah intervenes first-- Israel probably doesn't want distractions from is Gaza adventure.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:25
|
|
|
As with many other contexts, irrational (or seemingly irrational) actions on the international stage may be responsive to domestic political or cultural concerns. Israeli political leaders are ultimately less beholden to the US than their own constituents.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:28
|
|
|
Yep, poo poo is just insanely bleak in Gaza: https://x.com/beltrew/status/1713939696110149896?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:41
|
|
|
Kalit posted:I doubt Israel needs any additional US military aid to wipe Gaza off the map, even if Hezbollah gets fully involved Why is the United States providing military support? https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...iterranean-sea/ quote:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/is...xiZ7dmUbN6NxCML quote:
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/10/11/first-plane-carrying-us-ammo-lands-in-israel-as-troops-mass-near-gaza quote:
Best Friends fucked around with this message at 16:53 on Oct 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:51
|
|
|
Best Friends posted:Why is the United States providing military support? …because we’re allies? I’m confused on what point you’re trying to make. Do you think that Israel wouldn’t have the military strength to wipe out Gaza without any help?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 16:57
|
|
|
They are there to scare off Iran or maybe Hezbollah. Though I can't imagine US troops on the ground against Hezbollah unless the situation is super dire. Maaaaaybe some air support, but that's one area Israel isn't lacking in.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:04
|
|
|
Kalit posted:
So your position is that the United States is not offering military support because it is needed, but out of some sort of tradition. Okay. To your question: given the history of urban operations generally and the numbers being floated for the occupation, as well as Israel’s own specific history of military occupation of Gaza, no I do not. Additionally, Israel is partially reliant on the United States for artillery and missile ammunition, stores of which are also needed (and have already partially been spent) in Ukraine. As far as eliminating the people of Gaza by non-military means, they may have the capability to prevent the people there from drinking water and eating food. Efforts there are ongoing.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:09
|
|
|
Kalit posted:…because we’re allies? I’m confused on what point you’re trying to make.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:19
|
|
|
World Famous W posted:our ally sucks and we should stop giving them more arms I agree. Unfortunately, I do not have the power to make that happen
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:22
|
|
|
World Famous W posted:our ally sucks and we should stop giving them more arms stop giving arms to Israel, give more to Ukraine instead.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:29
|
|
|
Tigey posted:Its extraordinary that Hamas' attack is barely a week old and Israel is already pissing away the sympathy it created - even in the West - because they can't help themselves in their lust for vengeance and Palestinian blood. They aren't, though. Lots of people are still sympathetic, aggressively so to anyone who isn't. The western governments that give them money and guns are still supportive. So what are they pissing away exactly?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:35
|
|
|
Prism posted:They aren't, though. Lots of people are still sympathetic, aggressively so to anyone who isn't. The western governments that give them money and guns are still supportive. So what are they pissing away exactly? You are seeing overt criticism, even if light, in the wake of a response to a massive terrorist attack. It is nowhere as significant as it should be but the fact you are hearing it at all is a sign of the goodwill burning at a tremendous rate. It doesn't mean it will have an impact or stop things but we've reached the situation where 'any response is acceptable' is losing traction.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 17:50
|
|
|
Prism posted:They aren't, though. Lots of people are still sympathetic, aggressively so to anyone who isn't. The western governments that give them money and guns are still supportive. So what are they pissing away exactly? It has made a huge difference in the Arab world, from apathetic mumbled support for Palestinians and a reflexive, rote dislike of Israel, to actively voiced support for Palestinians with hundreds of thousands of people attending. The demonstrations in favor of Hamas/Palestinians on the first weekend in large Arab cities were miniature, like a few hundred people. I suspect it will also even make a difference for European attitudes towards Israel, similar to how Europeans thought of Russia between 2014-2022, and Israel appears to be set on going full Assad/Putin on Gaza. The destruction of Gaza is front page news every day of every newspaper here; anyone who is saying that Gazan civilians aren't getting as much sympathetic coverage as Israeli partiers is either completely disconnected from the mainstream news narrative, or living in like, South America or somewhere that DGAF. I haven't seen anyone on my social media (which is only people I know personally, but includes many N Africans, mostly Europeans, and some Americans) post anything in support of Israel within the past week, and I've seen a fair number of people post about Gaza, which I'd never seen before, including 2019. That's obviously very anecdotal but it's the first political event to get in my social media bubble since the invasion of Ukraine - and I tend to avoid people who talk about politics IRL.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:04
|
|
|
The longer the time between the attack and the response the more premeditated the inevitable atrocities will be seen as.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:04
|
|
|
I'm sure the dead will be comforted to know the atrocities will be seen as premeditated or condemned by nations that will however refuse to sanction or in any meaningful, material sense punish Israel or even take real action to prevent the next set of atrocities. German police broke up pro-Palestinian rallies, France has just banned them outright, and the UK government has talked about bringing in police, but hey some media organizations occasionally mention how bad things are and how it's really tragic that Hamas made the Israeli government do all this - now here's some poo poo the IDF said no we will not verify if it's true.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:16
|
|
|
TGLT posted:I'm sure the dead will be comforted to know the atrocities will be seen as premeditated or condemned by nations that will however refuse to sanction or in any meaningful, material sense punish Israel or even take real action to prevent the next set of atrocities. Even the Iranians wont support Hamas. "They can defend themselves"
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:19
|
|
|
TGLT posted:I'm sure the dead will be comforted to know the atrocities will be seen as premeditated or condemned by nations that will however refuse to sanction or in any meaningful, material sense punish Israel or even take real action to prevent the next set of atrocities. The British police atypically went out of their way to publish a letter telling the Home Secretary to gently caress of when she interfered to say that Palestinian flags or support for Palestine could be illegal. And the PM's language changed slightly today, while still being poo poo, presumably because of things like a member of his own party, a former head of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee being all over the press saying that ministers were legally on the hook for war crimes complicity and proceedings were beginning. The situation here isn't anywhere near as good as it was with regards politicians supporting Palestine since Starmer purged the left, but it's also not as uniformly pro-Israel as it was a week ago, and I do not think that the public was ever fully carried by the narrative. Lovely Joe Stalin fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Oct 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:23
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:27
|
|
|
This does feel like an unexpectedly stringent test of multiple Western states' powers of coercion - by trying to clamp down as hard as they can on what appear to be very large, popular protests, they seem to be writing cheques it's not obvious they can cash. The pro-Palestine protest in London, for instance, had a hundred thousand members or more, and the Home Secretary's threats of legal repercussions for it so far seems to have been very empty.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:31
|
|
|
TGLT posted:I'm sure the dead will be comforted to know the atrocities will be seen as premeditated or condemned by nations that will however refuse to sanction or in any meaningful, material sense punish Israel or even take real action to prevent the next set of atrocities. I'm a little shocked this hadn't been reversed yet (if they're even enforcing it). Especially since France is pushing for their aid to get through to Gaza: https://news.yahoo.com/egypt-france-foreign-ministers-urge-165716226.html?guccounter=1
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:31
|
|
|
Tigey posted:Its extraordinary that Hamas' attack is barely a week old and Israel is already pissing away the sympathy it created - even in the West - because they can't help themselves in their lust for vengeance and Palestinian blood. That ain't extraordinary, that's just Israel being very Israel
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:34
|
|
|
Kalit posted:I'm a little shocked this hadn't been reversed yet (if they're even enforcing it). Especially since France is pushing for their aid to get through to Gaza: https://news.yahoo.com/egypt-france-foreign-ministers-urge-165716226.html?guccounter=1 France had a big round of riots over the summer. Macron really doesn't want a repeat of that.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:51
|
|
|
It's difficult to get anyone to agree to anything with so much, I guess I'd call it "willing lack of curiosity" about anything that is going on by large swaths of the world. Take Al-Shifa hospital, which Israel has been threatening to bomb, and news and social media has been calling an HQ for Hamas. And by that they mean that a source called it "a de facto HQ for Hamas" and Amnesty International said that they had used one of its clinics to torture dissenters. In 2014. This information is therefore enough to justify a strike on a hospital, where one must assume that both local doctors and NGOs are badgering Hamas to allow them access to one of their murder clinics to help with the overflowing bodies. We're expected to have reasonable discussions about policy from people who are so horny for death that they would believe that the UN or MSF is sharing an operating table with a terrorist group?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 18:58
|
|
|
CuddleCryptid posted:We're expected to have reasonable discussions about policy from people who are so horny for death that they would believe that the UN or MSF is sharing an operating table with a terrorist group? It is strategically very advantageous for Hamas to maximize the collateral damage that Israel causes with any attempt to damage Hamas in any way. Frankly I'd be shocked if Hamas didn't make sure that they had some kind of weapons depot, base, etc. in most large apartment buildings and every hospital and school in areas in Gaza they control.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:05
|
|
|
wins32767 posted:It is strategically very advantageous for Hamas to maximize the collateral damage that Israel causes with any attempt to damage Hamas in any way. Frankly I'd be shocked if Hamas didn't make sure that they had some kind of weapons depot, base, etc. in most large apartment buildings and every hospital and school in areas in Gaza they control. But that isn't relevant to actual strikes. Shoving a rifle in a closet doesn't justify the occupied apartment block that the closet is located inside to be shelled. Saying "Israel needs to strike buildings that rockets are being launched from" and then "Israel is going to strike this hosptial" leads people to assume that it's being used as a weapon facility with full knowledge of the people working there which is insane.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:11
|
|
|
It is strategically very advantageous for Israel to say that Hamas has munitions and soldiers hidden everywhere all over Gaza so that they get a free out when they murder civilians. Frankly I'd be shocked if Israel didn't just invent Hamas as an excuse to murder civilians. "Well I feel like it could be true" isn't a loving basis for believing something. If it were true why is it third party investigators frequently find no evidence to support those claims? Why doesn't Israel provide this evidence it supposedly has? At what point do you accept that maybe the IDF is just loving lying? It may be true in some instances but in all instances it should be incumbent on Israel to actually prove it. Like that doesn't even mean it's justified but it is at a minimum the first step that needs to be taken that never seems to be.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:14
|
|
|
I find it hard to believe that Hamas has made it a priority to maximize the appearance of collateral damage by a military that is already acting without regard for collateral damage.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:15
|
|
|
TGLT posted:It is strategically very advantageous for Israel to say that Hamas has munitions and soldiers hidden everywhere all over Gaza so that they get a free out when they murder civilians. Frankly I'd be shocked if Israel didn't just invent Hamas as an excuse to murder civilians. Do you have sources/examples for this? For a counter-example, UNRWA got kicked out of an area when they found rockets in a vacant school, which was also next to two other [populated] schools: https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/unrwa-condemns-placement-rockets-second-time-one-its-schools While IDF lies, they definitely aren't lying about Hamas' strategy of weapons/etc in civilian infrastructure.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:17
|
|
|
CuddleCryptid posted:But that isn't relevant to actual strikes. Shoving a rifle in a closet doesn't justify the occupied apartment block that the closet is located inside to be shelled. Saying "Israel needs to strike buildings that rockets are being launched from" and then "Israel is going to strike this hosptial" leads people to assume that it's being used as a weapon facility with full knowledge of the people working there which is insane. Oh, I wouldn't assume that everyone that works or lives in a building knows more than say 10% of what goes on in that building. There could literally be terrorists in my office building or in the converted factory across the street from my house and I'd have no idea. That said, if there was a large hospital complex and I was a crazed terrorist leader, you better believe I'm digging tunnels under it and putting a big arms depot there. Every major depot or base or strategically valuable target would be under or in something that would cause a lot of uproar if it got blown up. Every single one.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:19
|
|
|
Tigey posted:Its extraordinary that Hamas' attack is barely a week old and Israel is already pissing away the sympathy it created - even in the West - because they can't help themselves in their lust for vengeance and Palestinian blood. Not so sure about that one chief 
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:29
|
|
|
Kalit posted:Do you have a source for this? For a counter-example, UNRWA got kicked out of an area when they found rockets in a vacant school, which was also next to two other [populated] schools: https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/unrwa-condemns-placement-rockets-second-time-one-its-schools When justifying blowing up kids on a beach they claimed there was a Hamas HQ there. Eyewitnesses reported a fisherman's hut. When they blew up the al-Jalaa building they claimed there was a Hamas electronic warfare unit operating out of there despite no one who worked there seeing them ever. When they murdered Shireen Abu Akleh they claimed there were militants around here when that was not the case. When they blew up Wehda Street they claimed they were targetting Hamas, which no one can find evidence of being there. UN investigations into the targetting of Al-Fakhura school found no evidence of Hamas activity. Even the Amnesty International report about Al-Shifa's use by Hamas only found evidence of Hamas militants using a unused outpatient clinic for extrajudicial killings of supposed collaborators which is not, you might note, the same as being the central HQ for Hamas (for which there is no evidence). That article from UNRWA notes that the schools where munitions were stored were vacant. While they shouldn't be using civilian infrastructure, neither of these incidents provide justification for the belief that there are just Hamas soldiers and munitions stored alongside civilians all over the place. Doesn't even make sense if you take Israel at its word about the size and scale of Hamas's tunnel networks. TGLT fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Oct 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:29
|
|
|
wins32767 posted:Oh, I wouldn't assume that everyone that works or lives in a building knows more than say 10% of what goes on in that building. There could literally be terrorists in my office building or in the converted factory across the street from my house and I'd have no idea. That said, if there was a large hospital complex and I was a crazed terrorist leader, you better believe I'm digging tunnels under it and putting a big arms depot there. Every major depot or base or strategically valuable target would be under or in something that would cause a lot of uproar if it got blown up. Every single one. I mean, I'm pretty sure you would notice if someone was shooting rocket artillery off the roof of your office building. Besides that, if the justification is "well it's a big building so there's *probably* a weapons cache inside" that's still a damned weak justification for blowing up a hospital.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:33
|
|
|
INTL law says proportional response. Sending rockets off the roof of an active hospital wouldn't justify blowing up a hospital.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:35
|
|
|
Typo posted:Not so sure about that one chief https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/sympathies-for-the-israelis-palestinian-conflict July - Palestinian sympathy polling at 24%, Israelis at 10%. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/10/16/b8bd3/1 Today - Palestinians polling at 17%, Israelis at 21%.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:42
|
|
|
TGLT posted:It is strategically very advantageous for Israel to say that Hamas has munitions and soldiers hidden everywhere all over Gaza so that they get a free out when they murder civilians. Frankly I'd be shocked if Israel didn't just invent Hamas as an excuse to murder civilians. Why would Hamas allow that information to get out if it was true? The mental gymnastics in this thread are hilarious. loving terrorist who have shown over and over to not care about Palestinians whatsoever. Whats the point of Hamas blocking civilians trying to leave if not to cause more collateral and blame it on the IDF... (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:43
|
|
|
Viller posted:Why would Hamas allow that information to get out if it was true? Obviously the lack of evidence about the conspiracy is just further proof of how vast and powerful the conspiracy is. If there was no evidence that can ever escape the all powerful reach of Hamas, then how does Israel know where the munitions are being stored or where Hamas militants are?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:46
|
|
|
Viller posted:Why would Hamas allow that information to get out if it was true? Is your source for Hamas blocking civilians trying to evacuate the IDF?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 19, 2024 21:40 |
|
|
Viller posted:Why would Hamas allow that information to get out if it was true? Call me a bleeding heart but I wouldn't call it an unreasonable demand for a military to flatten occupied buildings off more than a guess.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2023 19:59
|
|