|
Cimber posted:I think the GOP line of thinking is that picking a sex predator defender/insurrectionist/lunatic is better that that the continue embarrassment of not being able to pick anyone at all.
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 12:34 |
|
|
Kale posted:Isnt Ken Buck one of the big cowboy Trumpers or am I getting things mixed up? Also Lawler being no isnt surprising cause hes always on TV for a soundbite about how the Freedom Caucus sucks. Ken Buck is pissed because he was passed over, despite his seniority, for the subcommittee on antitrust gavel for Thomas Massie and has stated that Scalise and Jordan are unacceptable as speakers because of their 2020 election lies. However, he is/was a long standing member of the HFC. plogo fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Oct 17, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:08
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Well also they already have that as their party leader so…. This is the end result of years of GOP demagoguery, gerrymandering and hyper-partisanship. They are so extreme now they can't do anything but screech and throw feces at the walls like a troop of howler monkeys. Great for Fox News segments, not so great when its time to negotiate deals and run things. Perhaps this is the high tide of the last 30 years of GOP as boomers start to die off in greater and greater numbers.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:10
|
|
|
Morrow posted:No, we're not very likely getting Jim Jordan. He's more likely than not going to slam face first into a wall. I don't think the wall is going to be all that sturdy. He'll fail the first vote, but the moderates won't be able to hold out for very long. Jordan and the Gaetz wing are way more stubborn than the moderates are, and way more willing to play chicken with government shutdowns. If the moderates can't get anyone out in front of him within a week or two, they'll fold.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:32
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:I don't think the wall is going to be all that sturdy. He'll fail the first vote, but the moderates won't be able to hold out for very long. Jordan and the Gaetz wing are way more stubborn than the moderates are, and way more willing to play chicken with government shutdowns. If the moderates can't get anyone out in front of him within a week or two, they'll fold. There are no consequences for them holding out. Jordan doesn't have the influence to actually enact any consequences. They won't be sitting there going through 10 votes to get Jim Jordan as speaker. Xombie fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Oct 17, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:35
|
|
|
Xombie posted:There are no actual consequences for them holding out. Jordan doesn't have the influence to actually enact any consequences. well, I think he'll have influence for about a month, and then the continuing resolution runs out November 17th. Then he has to make a major choice. Shut down the government right before Thanksgiving and cause huge amounts of travel disruption, or do a continuing resolution for another month and piss off the howler monkey caucus.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 15:40
|
|
|
Cimber posted:well, I think he'll have influence for about a month, and then the continuing resolution runs out November 17th. Then he has to make a major choice. Shut down the government right before Thanksgiving and cause huge amounts of travel disruption, or do a continuing resolution for another month and piss off the howler monkey caucus. I mean he doesn't have the influence to threaten holdouts out of their position, and doesn't have the trustworthiness to promise them anything. There's a month left in the CR, so there's no urgency. They can absolutely afford to just thumb their nose at him and there's nothing he can really do about it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:02
|
|
|
Is it a majority of House Representatives, or a majority of House Representatives present at time of voting? Because if it's the latter, could the "Anyone but Jordan" R just... not go to work the day of the vote out of spite?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
Randalor posted:Is it a majority of House Representatives, or a majority of House Representatives present at time of voting? Because if it's the latter, could the "Anyone but Jordan" R just... not go to work the day of the vote out of spite? That would leave the door open to Speaker Jeffries, if enough of them were out on voting day.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:22
|
|
|
Xombie posted:There are no consequences for them holding out. Jordan doesn't have the influence to actually enact any consequences. The consequences for holding out is that the government will shut down if they're still holding out a month from now. Realistically speaking, they've probably got about two weeks to present a credible challenger to Jordan who can get at least as many GOP votes as he does. If they can't manage that, they'll fold, because Jordan is more willing to risk a shutdown than they are.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:34
|
|
|
Icon Of Sin posted:That would leave the door open to Speaker Jeffries, if enough of them were out on voting day. Yes, that was the underlying implication behind the "out of spite" part of that. Can't be blamed for voting for Dems if you didn't show up to vote!
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:36
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:The consequences for holding out is that the government will shut down if they're still holding out a month from now. Realistically speaking, they've probably got about two weeks to present a credible challenger to Jordan who can get at least as many GOP votes as he does. If they can't manage that, they'll fold, because Jordan is more willing to risk a shutdown than they are. They have already _had_ two weeks to present a credible challenger. This is the best they got.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:37
|
|
|
Randalor posted:Yes, that was the underlying implication behind the "out of spite" part of that. Can't be blamed for voting for Dems if you didn't show up to vote! If they take an action that leads to a Democratic speaker they will absolutely be blamed, all funding cut, and primary challengers propped up.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:38
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:The consequences for holding out is that the government will shut down if they're still holding out a month from now. Realistically speaking, they've probably got about two weeks to present a credible challenger to Jordan who can get at least as many GOP votes as he does. If they can't manage that, they'll fold, because Jordan is more willing to risk a shutdown than they are. Once again, they won't be spending a month still trying to get Jim Jordan over the hump. That is not a realistic scenario. What Jordan is or isn't willing to risk a month from now doesn't matter, because his support will falter if he isn't voted in this week. We live in a universe where Kevin McCarthy took 4 days and 15 ballots to become speaker, then got removed anyway. Jim Jordan of all people is not, in any sense, inevitable.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 16:47
|
|
|
When does the voting start up again anyways?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:24
|
|
|
Randalor posted:When does the voting start up again anyways? House reporters seem to think it'll be around 1:00 eastern time.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:25
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:27
|
|
|
Looking forward to Trump becoming both Speaker and Shadow President.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:30
|
|
|
Xombie posted:Once again, they won't be spending a month still trying to get Jim Jordan over the hump. That is not a realistic scenario. What Jordan is or isn't willing to risk a month from now doesn't matter, because his support will falter if he isn't voted in this week. They're not going to spend another month doing this, because they can't afford to leave the CR till the last minute. That's unlikely to be something they can knock out in a few hours; they need to hurry up and finish fighting over this so they can start fighting over that instead. Jordan's support won't collapse so easily. Even if he can't get over the hump in the first few rounds, the "anybody but Jordan" group is already giving way under the pressure, and it's going to be easier to win them over than it will be to rally his supporters behind someone else. Unless someone wildly popular comes in, but that sure won't be Scalise or McCarthy, and no one else has shown any interest.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:53
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:55
|
|
|
mannerup posted:quorum call is wrapping up now, next will be nomination speeches and then the first vote Is this voting voting for the Speaker with the whole House or pre-voting like the GOP is doing before?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:56
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:57
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:They're not going to spend another month doing this, because they can't afford to leave the CR till the last minute. That's unlikely to be something they can knock out in a few hours; they need to hurry up and finish fighting over this so they can start fighting over that instead. If we take as a granted that Jim "Sexual Assault Concealer" Jordan gets the gavel, I don't see how anyone can can count on him having a long and productive tenure. He'll jump face first in the same buzzsaw that McCarthy did, most especially so if no rules are changed. He holds out eternally and destroys the nation, or he compromises with someone, somewhere, on something and then the poo poo-flinging howler monkey caucus casts him out as impure.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 17:58
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:They're not going to spend another month doing this, because they can't afford to leave the CR till the last minute. That's unlikely to be something they can knock out in a few hours; they need to hurry up and finish fighting over this so they can start fighting over that instead. Of course they can, they literally already did. You keep vaguely hinting at these consequences that would snap them into a normal mode of governance, what are they? Here in reality they left the CR to the last minute, and in the mean time removed their own speaker and refuse to elect any of the actual leaders of their party. Where is the evidence that they're suddenly going to choose the path of responsibility? quote:Jordan's support won't collapse so easily. Even if he can't get over the hump in the first few rounds, the "anybody but Jordan" group is already giving way under the pressure, and it's going to be easier to win them over than it will be to rally his supporters behind someone else. You're basing his strong support on the concept that no one else wants the job, and that for sure they won't do the stupid thing and vote for anyone else, when here in reality the last speaker is sitting in the crowd after taking a runaway record 15 rounds to get in and they're putting up Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House. quote:Unless someone wildly popular comes in, but that sure won't be Scalise or McCarthy, and no one else has shown any interest. There is no basis to it being "for sure" that it won't be Scalise or McCarthy, or just some other rando that pops up. We are not living in the "GOP does normal things instead of shooting themselves in the foot" timeline here. edit: As i write this, McCarthy has 2 votes already without being the nominee and one of them wasn't on that list. edit2: It appears Jordan has not gained a single vote out of the people who were a hard no on voting for him, there are even additional "no" votes, and he has already lost. Xombie fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 17, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:04
|
|
|
Lmao there's 5 against. Gonna enjoy seeing what Jordan sells to get the gavel.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:10
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:10
|
|
|
As much as we imagine the HFC being some chaos agents, they're in fact self-serving corrupt assholes who just wanted something out of McCarthy that he wasn't or couldn't give them. The people voting against Jordan very much do not like or trust *him*, personally.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:12
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:17
|
|
|
Xombie posted:Of course they can, they literally already did. You keep vaguely hinting at these consequences that would snap them into a normal mode of governance, what are they? Here in reality they left the CR to the last minute, and in the mean time removed their own speaker and refuse to elect any of the actual leaders of their party. Where is the evidence that they're suddenly going to choose the path of responsibility? They didn't leave the CR till the last minute before. They spent weeks trying to pass a budget bill or CR before McCarthy gave up and pushed through a clean CR with Dem support. With that in mind, there's no way they can let the Speaker contest go on until a couple of days before the CR expires. The Republicans who want to avoid a shutdown will likely want to allow a couple of weeks for working out what the hell to do about it, and that means they'll give up and embrace Speaker Jordan long before the CR expires. No one else with a reasonable chance of getting significant support wants the job. I'm sure Gaetz would love to have it, but no one will vote for him and he knows it. Scalise dropped out because he couldn't stand up to Jordan and didn't have any real path to overtaking him. The fundamental reason Jordan is going to win is that his opponents are mostly the moderates, who are much less stubborn than the radicals backing Jordan. I expect they'll give in by the end of the month and fall in behind the frontrunner, and that'll be Jordan, unless someone else enters the race and pulls 150+ GOP votes in his first try. Who would that someone else be? It sure ain't Scalise, and I doubt it's McCarthy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:17
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:They didn't leave the CR till the last minute before. They spent weeks trying to pass a budget bill or CR before McCarthy gave up and pushed through a clean CR with Dem support. Working for weeks, giving up, and then passing something they hadn't been working on at the last minute does, in fact, constitute doing something at the last minute. quote:With that in mind, there's no way they can let the Speaker contest go on until a couple of days before the CR expires. The Republicans who want to avoid a shutdown will likely want to allow a couple of weeks for working out what the hell to do about it, and that means they'll give up and embrace Speaker Jordan long before the CR expires. I assure you, they can in fact find yet another stupid and inept thing to do. You are operating under the assumption that the people opposing Jordan are, as they want everyone to believe, they adults in the room. They're not, they're just another brand of self-serving rear end in a top hat. quote:No one else with a reasonable chance of getting significant support wants the job. This does not automatically mean Jim Jordan has a reasonable chance of getting significant support compared to Scalise or McCarthy. quote:Scalise dropped out because he couldn't stand up to Jordan and didn't have any real path to overtaking him. Scalise did overtake him. Jordan only gained support after Scalise gave up. quote:The fundamental reason Jordan is going to win is that his opponents are mostly the moderates, who are much less stubborn than the radicals backing Jordan. "Less stubborn" doesn't mean they're selfless or rational. quote:I expect they'll give in by the end of the month and fall in behind the frontrunner, and that'll be Jordan, unless someone else enters the race and pulls 150+ GOP votes in his first try. Who would that someone else be? It sure ain't Scalise, and I doubt it's McCarthy. Simply stating the bolded part doesn't make it true, as once again, we're in the timeline where they're voting on whether Jim Jordan will be speaker of the house. We are not in the "only obvious things happen" universe.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:26
|
|
|
Main Paineframe posted:They're not going to spend another month doing this, because they can't afford to leave the CR till the last minute. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https%3A%2F%2Fnews.yahoo.com%2Fjim-jordan-plan-avert-shutdown-051136401.html quote:In recent meetings with House Republicans, Jordan, the right-wing firebrand from Ohio, has called for passing a stopgap bill to keep money flowing under existing law beyond April, according to a half-dozen lawmakers who heard his comments. The reason is that an across-the-board 1% cut, as tucked inside a recent debt-limit law, would then take effect, imposing reductions across agencies. His plan to pass an actual budget is a) kicking the can down the road (a move opposed by members of his own party, including Gaetz who already triggered one Speaker being vacated) and b) trying again in a few months to see if the Dems suddenly wanna let the GOP single handedly write a budget. If there were any Republicans who were worried about passing a final budget, why would they waste time electing a speaker who doesn't wanna pass a budget?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:27
|
|
|
So we're up to 15 against Jordan?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:37
|
|
|
Why are there so many votes (i.e. any) for Zeldin, of all people??
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:38
|
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:40
|
|
|
Xiahou Dun posted:Why are there so many votes (i.e. any) for Zeldin, of all people?? He's like the designated "I don't want to vote for the leading candidate so I'm parking my vote here for now" person, this happened last time too
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:40
|
|
|
20 against Jordan is actually more than I expected the first vote. Highly doubtful he does better from here.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:44
|
|
|
I wonder how many of those Jordan votes are just because they have cover now. 20 against is better than nothing, but still closer than I'd like.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:45
|
|
|
Sophisticated industry is getting pissed about some of the spending bills that are getting blocked, particularly the farm bill.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:46
|
|
|
Retro42 posted:20 against Jordan is actually more than I expected the first vote. Highly doubtful he does better from here. Stick a fork in Jordan, he's done, a bunch of people were apparently willing to give him only one shot. https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1714320345681834323 https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1714330100089405522
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 12:34 |
|
|
.
mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Nov 5, 2023 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2023 18:48
|
|