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Main Paineframe posted:Typically it means a full-scale ground invasion goes in and occupies the areas near the border, sends some raids deeper into Gaza to capture or kill some militants, destroys a bunch of infrastructure they claim was being used by Hamas, maybe wipes out a neighborhood or two just for the hell of it, and then unilaterally declares victory and pulls out before they take too many casualties. The whole thing usually lasts about two weeks. To me, that feels like the best-case realistic scenario this time around. I think it’s a good idea to not hand-wave away Israel’s statements that it intends to destroy Hamas. It has the capability to conduct a Fallujah-style campaign. If that happens, are there realistic scenarios other than a) civilians mass- evacuate, never to return, or b) catastrophic civilian deaths ?
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Oct 17, 2023 14:51
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mrfart posted:I guess they're very different militarily. most importantly IDF isn't going in expecting resistance to just collapse without a fight quote:The rubble they created by destroying entire neighborhoods are the biggest obstacle. You don't want to drive tanks into that, and infantry will get into brutal close combat. all those ppl who are expecting hamas will kill like 10k idf soldiers because it's an urban area are gonna be disappointed Typo fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Oct 17, 2023 |
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Oct 17, 2023 15:32
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Paladinus posted:Presumably, they are going to let them back in once they are done with HAMAS. But you would be right not to presume. Although Biden signals that complete annexation of Gaza by Israel is not what America would want to see, I don't think Israel has committed to anything beyond 'destroy HAMAS'. Even say they did fully intend to allow them return at some later point (haha). Is it not still ethnic cleansing to purposefully depoplate an area? Or do they also have to say they intend to settle it themselves once it's empty
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Oct 17, 2023 16:05
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Typo posted:US casualties in the 2 battles of Fallujah were like 100 KIA combined btw Still, compare to 2022, where only three soldiers died in action, and 44 soldiers total - and that was the highest number in five years! The Israeli public isn't used to seeing IDF soldiers die in action, now an incredible amount are already dead and more will die if there's any ground invasion. https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-726526 It will take decades before we fully understand how much this war has (further) warped Israeli culture and politics.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:08
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It's interesting to me that I haven't seen anyone noting the significance of Biden not just traveling there but moving a carrier group into the area which seems like a clear signal to Israel to calm the gently caress down and be very loving careful with their blatant war criming. It's one thing to accidentally fire on a spy ship firing on a super carrier would be a whole other level of stupid. Also it would be extraordinary dumb to launch an offensive while the US President is in theater. Biden has to thread a fine needle of showing vocal support for Israel communicating to Israel that them just rolling into Gaza and massacring every Palestinian isn't going to happen.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:10
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break-up breakdown posted:Even say they did fully intend to allow them return at some later point (haha). Is it not still ethnic cleansing to purposefully depoplate an area? Or do they also have to say they intend to settle it themselves once it's empty Well, as long as Israel is perceived to conduct a just war with the stated purpose of defeating HAMAS, framing evacuation of civilians as ethnic cleansing is a tall order. Evacuating people due to a natural disaster, for example, is absolutely not ethnic cleansing on its own. Identifying how much actions align with stated intentions, and how much other countries may prefer not to see any discrepancies is a separate issue.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:16
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 17, 2023 16:17
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Still, compare to 2022, where only three soldiers died in action, and 44 soldiers total - and that was the highest number in five years! yeah, it's similar to Fallujah in the US like 100 KIA isn't a lot compared to Vietnam when 2-3x that many US soldiers were getting killed PER DAY during the Tet offensive, but the US public of the 2000s wasn't used to seeing triple digit casualties at all
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Oct 17, 2023 16:20
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Skex posted:It's interesting to me that I haven't seen anyone noting the significance of Biden not just traveling there but moving a carrier group into the area which seems like a clear signal to Israel to calm the gently caress down and be very loving careful with their blatant war criming. It's one thing to accidentally fire on a spy ship firing on a super carrier would be a whole other level of stupid. https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/politics/inside-joe-biden-israel-trip-planning/index.html quote:It took an explicit commitment from his Israeli counterpart to open Gaza for humanitarian aid for President Joe Biden to agree to make an extraordinary wartime trip to Tel Aviv. Also, lol boomer Biden quote:Traveling to Israel in person may provide Biden – who despises Zoom calls and has long espoused the importance of face-to-face meetings – a better opportunity to convey those views to his Israeli counterpart, a leader with whom he believes he has a deep understanding The rest of the article has some good details about what Blinken is doing but copying/pasting more than a paragraph on Android is a nightmare. ummel fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Oct 17, 2023 |
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Oct 17, 2023 16:24
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Skex posted:It's interesting to me that I haven't seen anyone noting the significance of Biden not just traveling there but moving a carrier group into the area which seems like a clear signal to Israel to calm the gently caress down and be very loving careful with their blatant war criming. It's one thing to accidentally fire on a spy ship firing on a super carrier would be a whole other level of stupid. I think most people have seen the movement of the carrier group as a signal to everyone else in the region to stay out of the conflict. Your analysis of Biden's trip seems right, though.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:24
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Yeah the two carrier groups are not to intimidate Israel, they're to intimidate everyone else to leave Israel alone. Biden may tut tut if Israel bombs every last citizen in Gaza but he won't do anything. If Syria or Lebanon do anything, they're getting those 140ish fighters as a reward.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:43
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ummel posted:Also, lol boomer Biden Tbf, I don't really blame him for this if it's a sensitive conversation. It's inefficient and dangerous to be flying all over the drat place, especially when there is a war on, but the thing about teleconferencing is that you don't actually know who is on the call. You obviously can bug an office or whatever but at least it isn't having a videocall with someone and the fifty mystery people on the other side of the room, behind the camera.
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Oct 17, 2023 16:55
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ummel posted:Also, lol boomer Biden Biden is too old to be a Boomer
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Oct 17, 2023 17:10
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I hope this is the right place to ask, but is there a good article, or post out there that just summarizes this whole situation? Not necessarily the day to day updates right now, but the historyhelps helps explain"why" it's happening and how we got here? I admit I know nothing about anything really on the factions at play so it would need to be a very introductory one...
PageMaster fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Oct 17, 2023 |
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Oct 17, 2023 17:22
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I see a lot of politicians whining about what Israel is doing but no one is really lifting a finger to stop it. It really goes to show that any country with a sufficiently strong military can just do whatever the gently caress they want
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Oct 17, 2023 17:25
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PageMaster posted:I hope this is the right place to ask, but is there a good article, or post out there that just summarizes this whole situation? Not necessarily the day to day updates right now, but the historyhelps helps explain"why" it's happening and how we got here? I admit I know nothing about anything on this This is from an American think tank, but it sums it up. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict
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Oct 17, 2023 17:26
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ummel posted:This is from an American think tank, but it sums it up. This or some other summary should probably be in the OP
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Oct 17, 2023 17:27
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Paladinus posted:Well, as long as Israel is perceived to conduct a just war with the stated purpose of defeating HAMAS, framing evacuation of civilians as ethnic cleansing is a tall order. Evacuating people due to a natural disaster, for example, is absolutely not ethnic cleansing on its own. Identifying how much actions align with stated intentions, and how much other countries may prefer not to see any discrepancies is a separate issue. This is not a "natural disaster." Can you provide reasons why you think this, a man-made situation, is comparable to a natural disaster?
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Oct 17, 2023 17:52
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I don’t interpret a carrier fleet as a means to intimidate Israel, but to deter others from thinking to join the contest. Biden’s visit may be to intimidate Israel, but I’m sure they’ll twist it to be a sign of support. What I’m curious about is whether they actually plan on letting Palestinians return to Gaza city after they’re done or whether they’re going to just erect a new border now that they’re all moved out. I’m sure they can easily find something in the tunnels to try to justify not handing it back. I thought the West Bank was the land they were more interested in taking, but I don’t know details here well.
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Oct 17, 2023 17:57
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PT6A posted:One other thing that Pappe lays out, and I think it's crucial to understanding the current situation, is that a good deal of the ethnic cleansing of urban Palestine was done by saying "you have to leave for your safety right now, you'll be allowed back." And then, shockingly, they weren't allowed back. So when people ask: well, why are Hamas and Egypt so reticent to let people flee for their safety, and why are many Palestinians not willing to do it? The reason is that Israel's record is heavily against it when they say "you have to leave for your safety." Some settler is gonna set themselves up in your place and you ain't never going back. They've pulled this trick before and they will of course try it again. This video immediately came to mind: https://youtube.com/shorts/piIgkqPmI-w?si=OJw36Oajs3NJtPUU
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Oct 17, 2023 18:04
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Zzulu posted:I see a lot of politicians whining about what Israel is doing but no one is really lifting a finger to stop it. It really goes to show that any country with a sufficiently strong military can just do whatever the gently caress they want Russia is a strong counterpoint to that. It's less about Israel's sheer military strength and more that they have strong ties to large chunks of the American electorate, for both ethnic and religious reasons. If anything, this is an example of why soft power is so important.
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Oct 17, 2023 18:07
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https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1714321317120360527
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Oct 17, 2023 18:20
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 17, 2023 18:28
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mannerup posted:https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1714330112370303454 Because as everyone knows the right way to get rid of extremism is to allow conditions to be as horrific as possible for as long as possible. That settles folks down.
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Oct 17, 2023 18:35
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mannerup posted:https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1714330112370303454 Most people here know their history enough to not need the reminder, but the US rebuilt western Germany and staged a famous airlift to give the German people aid after rooting out the Nazi regime. What a moronic statement.
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Oct 17, 2023 18:36
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mannerup posted:https://twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1714330112370303454 Tom Cotton pretty regularly openly lusts for the death of innocent people so no shock there.
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Oct 17, 2023 18:36
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Al Jazeera is reporting over 500 killed in Israeli airstrike on al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City (source: Gaza Ministry of Health), others I believe are reporting at least 200. Biden, I'm sure, will say this is "very sad" shortly before shoveling more bombs into Israel's arsenal.
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Oct 17, 2023 18:56
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I don’t interpret a carrier fleet as a means to intimidate Israel, but to deter others from thinking to join the contest. Biden’s visit may be to intimidate Israel, but I’m sure they’ll twist it to be a sign of support. The carriers are there, by centcom’s own statements, to deter anyone from attacking Israel while Israel conducts its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Beyond that, we are actively providing israel with ammunition. Ammunition they will load onto their American built fighter planes, for an operation the United States explicitly supports, for a country the United States has given many billions in weapons to and frequently used its UN veto to protect from censure. Why would Biden be “intimidating” Israel in private? Why would his words be “twisted” - he’s made plenty of very public statements of support for Israel, as has both American parties. The United States is an active ally and partner of Israel and supports Israel both broadly and materially in this campaign. Imagining Biden is against the bombing of Gaza is fan fiction, and implausible even by fan fiction standards. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/conflict-middle-east-could-escalate-us-national-security-adviser-warns-2023-10-15/ quote:
The official from the top messaging is Israel should destroy Hamas but not occupy Gaza. That equals a bombing campaign and siege - the exact one that is exploding hospitals and apartments right now. This is what America actively, publicly, and materially supports.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:01
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Don't worry, in a few hours we'll all get to hear how this hospital secretly housed a Hamas HQ where they were producing terrorborgs or some poo poo so it's okay.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:03
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TGLT posted:Don't worry, in a few hours we'll all get to hear how this hospital secretly housed a Hamas HQ where they were producing terrorborgs or some poo poo so it's okay. The hospital was a human shield for the Hamas hideout in the basement etc etc.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:04
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BBC, Al Jazeera, The Guardian etc reporting that Israel just bombed a hospital killing 500 people. I know it's naive but gently caress me I hope this affects public opinion and puts pressure on countries to stop backing this. And one of the UN schools, which are designated shelters.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:05
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Wrong thread disregard.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:09
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Also wrong thread!
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Oct 17, 2023 19:10
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Jesus loving christ. Seriously, what the gently caress is supposed to deescalate this mess?
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Oct 17, 2023 19:19
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Best Friends posted:The carriers are there, by centcom’s own statements, to deter anyone from attacking Israel while Israel conducts its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. I can't find these statements, can you link them?
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Oct 17, 2023 19:22
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Discendo Vox posted:I can't find these statements, can you link them? https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...ent-of-uss-eis/ "The increases to US force Posture signal the United States' ironclade commitment to Israel's security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war."
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Oct 17, 2023 19:23
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Rashida Tlaib is openly criticizing Joe Biden after the attack on the hospital that reportedly killed 500 Palestinians (Tlaib's number). I'm including the text of the tweet, because it includes a picture of the blast that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians. The tweet itself is available below in spoiler tags--just be warned that you will see a large explosion if you click on it.Rashida Tlaib posted:Rashida Tlaib https://twitter.com/RashidaTlaib/status/1714342122185191596?s=20 The level of cruelty here by Israel cannot be understated, and I sincerely hope that the Biden administration reconsiders its current approach, because this is a straight up massacre.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:24
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TGLT posted:Don't worry, in a few hours we'll all get to hear how this hospital secretly housed a Hamas HQ where they were producing terrorborgs or some poo poo so it's okay. There is already a counter narrative that this was a misfired Hamas rocket. There is video of the strike from a distance, and it certainly doesn't look like that - but I ain't no expert.
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Oct 17, 2023 19:32
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Ripperljohn posted:Jesus loving christ. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 17, 2023 19:34
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TGLT posted:https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...ent-of-uss-eis/ That's not the same claim as "to deter anyone from attacking Israel while Israel conducts its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria."
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Oct 17, 2023 19:35
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