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why can't thread titles be images yet
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Oct 16, 2023 16:06
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 19:12 |
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holy poo poo
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Oct 16, 2023 16:12
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has anyone said coronal rear end ejection yet
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Oct 16, 2023 16:25
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my cat is norris posted:why can't thread titles be images yet Just make the thread title Weatherdammerung 2023: https://i.imgur.com/wlp2WMQ.png and make people copypaste it
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Oct 16, 2023 22:32
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Oct 17, 2023 00:58
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Colin Mockery posted:Just make the thread title Weatherdammerung 2023: https://i.imgur.com/wlp2WMQ.png and make people copypaste it
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Oct 17, 2023 01:23
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Colin Mockery posted:Just make the thread title Weatherdammerung 2023: https://i.imgur.com/wlp2WMQ.png and make people copypaste it
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Oct 17, 2023 01:50
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Colin Mockery posted:Just make the thread title Weatherdammering 2023: https://i.imgur.com/wlp2WMQ.png and make people copypaste it
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Oct 17, 2023 02:09
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Colin Mockery posted:Just make the thread title Weatherdammerung 2023: https://i.imgur.com/wlp2WMQ.png and make people copypaste it
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Oct 17, 2023 02:31
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it's like staring into the face of god
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Oct 17, 2023 04:00
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Eason the Fifth posted:hundreds of millions of people are going to die lmao it's not gonna happen, so it's fine to make jokes about it
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Oct 17, 2023 05:12
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Gripweed posted:it's not gonna happen, so it's fine to make jokes about it are you like 90 or something
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Oct 17, 2023 05:27
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Damnit I seem to have killed the thread. Maybe this guy will spice it up? 
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Oct 18, 2023 06:17
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Models seem to think it brushes the eastern Caribbean and then goes out to sea
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Oct 18, 2023 11:23
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I sanded my deck and then it rained every day since. Weather!!!! 
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Oct 18, 2023 11:28
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c'mon IK, gimme a sixer with this, be a bro
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Oct 18, 2023 11:37
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Diamonds On MY Fish posted:Damnit I seem to have killed the thread. Meh. El Nino is becoming quickly established. Not saying nothing else spicy can happen but that good action we had was due to a lull. Now fuckin' next year, sheeeeeit all of the forces that disrupt hurricane formation in the Atlantic during an El Nino, usually help hurricanes form during the La Nina flip the year after, assuming we don't get a 2 year El Nino, which is possible but at this point I would say not the most likely outcome. We did have three consecutive La Nina years just now though, so. Definitely not impossible. Taima has issued a correction as of 12:13 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 11:58
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Hey so I don't post in here much but I've been doing some El Nino explaining (my posts in this thread can be queried to learn more). Just wanted to give a quick update of where we are. Basically, this year started out absurdly strong with El Nino indicators, which really juiced the warm waters in the El Nino regions. Then, over the last few months, a hiccup happened and we as forecasters started wondering if the whole thing would fall apart. That's not uncommon- El Nino is the pressure release valve of Pacific equatorial water temperatures. The normal trade winds (due to the earth's rotation) take the sun-heated surface water of the equatorial Pacific ocean and piles it all up in the far Western part. Think Taiwan, etc. Anyways the point being, this accumulation needs critical mass to achieve an El Nino, and it can have false starts, in fact that is common. Think about it like one of those lawn mowers where you have to pull the cord really hard to get it the engine to start. As warm water builds in the West Pacific, a normal part of the trade winds, it puts more gas in the lawn mower. The earth starts trying to pull the cord and bring the engine to life each year, which can cause a few years of false starts, but eventually enough warm water (gas, in this analogy) is put into the tank that the earth finally pulls the cord and the motor (El Nino) engages. So it can look like an El Nino is going to happen a given year, but it fails because there ultimately wasn't enough gas in the tank. This can happen multiple years in a row before an event actually engages. Things started cooling down on the El Nino indicators over the last few months so the thought was that this event would be either a midline event, or sputter out- just another year of not enough gas in the tank. Well, things have picked up substantially since September. Forgive my horrible Apple Pencil handwriting:  ^This is the current anomaly state (difference from normal) map of the world's oceans. This is a crucial point, it is NOT the temps, just how far each region is from its average. Some elements have come into play that favor El Nino growth: 1) Very recently the Indian Ocean Dipole is turning fairly strongly Positive. That manifests as a tongue of upwelling (cold water being dredged up from the depths) off Indonesia. 2) Cooling in the far West Pacific which is near the +IOD region I explained in the previous point. 3) "sympathetic" El Nino-esque action in the Atlantic (just something that happens pretty often when an El Nino is healthy) Points 1 and 2 are by far the most important, because the equatorial circulation determines the entire structure of the jet stream (where it is and who gets rain).  ^This is the normal pattern. Super warm water piled in the far West Pacific causes HUGE uplift of convection (clouds) basically energy moving upwards. This configures the entire equatorial circulation, juicing rainfall in the region because, and this is super critical to understand, the jet stream empowers above and adjacent to where all the warmest water is. This also, crucially, hurts the East Pacific because the air has to fall somewhere and the falling motion of the air is established where the relatively cold equatorial water is in the East Pacific, during a normal year. That's why we get such a juiced storm track when El Nino happens; we are no longer in the cold (falling air) part of the circulation but rather, the warm rising part, which empowers the jet stream as it heads directly into the USA (and often times moves the storm track southward so that California gets absolutely pummeled)  ^This is El Nino which puts the jet stream in the East Pacific on steroids. What is the point of this? Well look at the first image I posted one more time: ^Notice something? The West Pacific and Indian ocean are cooling down, while the East Pacific is getting warm as gently caress. This is what inverts the entire system and causes the positive reinforcement mechanisms that cause El Nino and modulates its strength as an event. One More piece of (hard to understand) Evidence of El Nino's strengthening into present time:  This is a map of where air is rising or falling on the equator of the entire world. At the risk of being too simplistic, the Indian ocean is turning extremely blue, which on this chart represents sinking air / suppressed convection in that region. While the Pacific west of the Dateline is bright red- a sign of juiced activity. This is a very strong sign that El Nino is fully coupled and will continue to strengthen as we move into Northern Hemi winter. --------- SUMMARY --------- Ok I see the map what does it mean though? It means that unless something changes (and its somewhat rare for things to completely fall apart at this point in the cycle) El Nino is going to continue to strengthen into North Hemisphere winter. The warm water that we currently see in the East Pacific? That is going to get juiced up substantially. This feels like the first REAL truly East Based El Nino in many, many years. The only question now is the climate is so hosed up, will it override the world's circulation and deliver the classic El Nino weather? (constant and southerly displaced storm track) like this:  And the answer is, probably! But again the climate is so screwed up, something else could happen. But if I was a betting man I would say the effects in this image ^ feel likely. We'll see though. It could be like the image above, but a bit different (maybe more rain in the PNW, or a mix of the two) but overall this should be the general layout for the winter months, favoring strong rainfall in the southern US and drier weather in the northern US, on average. This is because the jet stream, during a normal El Nino, moves south and gets on steroids, so the water that would normally focus on the Northern USA, moves south away from it. Hope That's clear. --------- /SUMMARY --------- To me, this basically seals the deal. Without some kind of divine intervention, there is a strong, far eastwardly mobilized canonical El Nino on tap for the 2023/2024 winter season and I haven't actually seen anything this potent for many, many years. There have technically been stronger events (2015-2016 comes to mind) but that event was not EAST enough to deliver the classic effects for western USA rainfall. And frankly with the strengthening I'm seeing right now, this event looks like it could easily top 2015-2016 not just in placement but in overall power too. It's being a bit of a grower rather than a shower; it's coming in late but looks like it will get super juiced up before winter all the same. It could be a pretty wild winter for the USA, the only remaining question is how this thing is going to manifest and who exactly gets the rain. If this thing forms perfectly we are looking at an event approaching, but not rivaling, the granddaddy event of 97. In reality we are probably 2-3 notches below that but this really does look like it wants to be the strongest far-east based El Nino since 97. You can't really ever beat 97, that El Nino was absolutely loving godly and I wouldn't be surprised if nothing ever topped that again in our lifetimes. But the fact that this El Nino appears to be, kind of, sorta trying to edge that direction is pretty spectacular. Mola Yam posted:english, doc; do i need to hoard tarps or not Where do you live and how prone to flooding is your home specifically? I remember in 97 (I was the ripe age of 12 years old) my parents had just completed building our house, which was perched on top of sandstone, and by the first half of that winter, half of our sand became our neighbor's sand. Haha, sorry Richard, you never scored. At minimum everyone in at-risk regions should have a plan and probably build up some sandbags, especially if you need to route water a certain way. That's just good sense overall though with how much climate change is increasing flooding events. When we moved into our current house, a big plus for us was that the house is super safe from a flood perspective. It's definitely something worth thinking about. On top of that, I get the strong sense that climate change may cause El Nino to act in some strange ways. We may not get the exact type of event in the literature, even if this specific El Nino checks all the boxes. As a result nothing is off the table; if you are on the west coast, even in the classically "drier during El Nino" regions, be careful and think about what mitigation measures you could have in place if things get weird. Contrary to popular belief, it is not El Nino that causes the worst floods. El Nino just juices / southerly displaces the storm track. It's actually La Nina that you need to worry about the most, because it favors Atmospheric Rivers. And a bad atmospheric river can absolutely decimate a state like it did in California in 1862: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 El Nino is still dangerous but it's more of a winter-long thing; classic storm track, not weird af atmospheric rivers that on a bad day can put entire sections of a state under feet of water. The 1862 flood was thought to have dropped TEN loving FEET of water over a 43 day period. That is 120 inches of rain in 43 days. lol. That will happen again probably. 
Taima has issued a correction as of 13:40 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 12:50
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english, doc; do i need to hoard tarps or not
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Oct 18, 2023 13:00
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Mola Yam posted:english, doc; do i need to hoard tarps or not a fool and his tarp are soon parted good giant weather post, especially since it had nice pictures.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:04
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Ty Taima, very good posting as usual. bring forth the warm winter tarps
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Oct 18, 2023 14:14
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Thanks for the great update/rundown, Taima! I vividly remember the 97 El Niño, most of my sister's neighbors were evacuated by helicopter and she refused to go cause they wouldn't take her dog too.
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Oct 18, 2023 15:26
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that’s some “put in OP for posterity” quality posting. Thanks for the explanation!!
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Oct 18, 2023 17:04
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Ty, Taima, great post
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Oct 18, 2023 18:49
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Mola Yam posted:english, doc; do i need to hoard tarps or not You should always be hoarding tarps, it's never wrong
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Oct 18, 2023 22:30
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if anyone didnt get enough el nino https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ is where you want to be. and also https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso and if you like principal component analysis then you can peer into the very mathematical heart of the niño https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Cuttlefush has issued a correction as of 22:51 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 22:47
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I would like to request lots of snow in SW Colorado from the Niño please, is this the right place to do that?
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Oct 18, 2023 22:57
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Taima posted:Words Yo the CFS is hot garbage
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Oct 18, 2023 23:26
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So here in Ohio I should get a boring and snow-free winter. Thanks Taima!
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Oct 18, 2023 23:44
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I'm in Texas and wish to be killed
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Oct 18, 2023 23:47
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smoobles posted:I'm in Texas and wish to be killed I'm excited 
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Oct 18, 2023 23:53
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smoobles posted:I'm in Texas and wish to be killed just wait a bit. the odds are always rising
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Oct 18, 2023 23:54
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SirPablo posted:Yo the CFS is hot garbage it's not for weathermen it's for feeding and refeeding and rerefeeding into other models 
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Oct 19, 2023 00:06
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SirPablo posted:Yo the CFS is hot garbage you don't know how the climate works
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Oct 19, 2023 01:19
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Rectal Death Adept posted:you don't know how the climate works 
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Oct 19, 2023 01:33
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he’s a weatherman not a climatologist!
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Oct 19, 2023 02:14
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SirPablo posted:Yo the CFS is hot garbage I think you're missing the point. That chart shows the mechanism I was trying to explain. The specifics of the forecast portion is not particularly important as long as the mechanisms continue to establish. I'm seeing excellent support for dateline-adjacent westerly wind burst (and attendant Indian Ocean suppression) across the reputable models. We've been waiting to see this lock in for months. Anyways thanks for the kind words yall, just trying my best to help people understand the specifics of a pretty hard to understand mechanism (El Nino) Taima has issued a correction as of 12:29 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 12:05
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it can be fine for that but still be called hot garbage. if you don't have a deep ill will toward a model or two, well, you should pick some. usually you only end up feeling like that about ones you actually do stuff with so im guessing sirpablo has a personal beef with it
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Oct 19, 2023 12:49
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Taima posted:based El Nino
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Oct 19, 2023 12:55
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 19:12 |
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I remember El Nino used to be cool 
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Oct 19, 2023 12:58
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