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coelomate posted:There's enough evidence of it being a failed rocket launch from within Gaza to take that claim seriously, if skeptically. 1. The IDF is currently the party dropping thousands of bombs into Gaza 2. Historically they have shown little restraint in targeting civilian infrastructure 3. Hamas lacks the type of rocket munitions needed to destroy such a large building 4. Accidents such as misfires are uncommon If you were told “a hospital was leveled by an explosion in Gaza yesterday ” with no extra information, the default assumption that it was done by the IDF is not some stretch of the imagination.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:44
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Plus, the IDF said in the opening days that "no buildings will remain." That categorically includes hospitals. And if they won't give them water and electricity, I don't see why bombing a hospital should matter to them since everyone in it will be dead soon anyhow.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:45
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Nail Rat posted:Plus, the IDF said in the opening days that "no buildings will remain." Exactly. They are deliberately depriving people of food and water in order remove them as a source of conflict. That’s a bigger crime they are engaged in.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:49
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I don't think Rakosi is making a good case for it not being IDF because he can't even properly present the evidence IDF provide. However, I have to agree that 'because it happened before' is not a convincing argument either. The strongest evidence from the two sides, as I see it, is the following: - It was a malfunctioning Palestinian rocket: video of rockets launched from somewhere close to the hospital moments before a huge explosion. Some people in the thread point out that the timestamp is wrong, but my understanding is there was a different video first that was deleted, and the one currently in circulation is time stamped correctly. It is also claimed that the video captured one of the rockets failing, but I can't confirm that myself and haven't seen any independent sources confirming that with certainty - It was an Israeli strike: a video of the impact where the sound and the strengths of the impact, some say, would be more consistent with the type of ammunition Israel uses I find the latter more compelling right now in the light of circumstantial evidence like the sheer number of casualties but I don't think it's conclusive yet. We haven't even seen any fragments of the rocket yet. It should also be possible, as more footage and photos surface, to identify the trajectory of the rocket.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:51
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Paladinus posted:I don't think Rakosi is making a good case for it not being IDF because he can't even properly present the evidence IDF provide. However, I have to agree that 'because it happened before' is not a convincing argument either. The strongest evidence from the two sides, as I see it, are the following: I personally think the most compelling evidence Israel did it was that the guy in charge of Israel's online propaganda took credit for the attack immediately after it happened. e: Morton Salt Grrl posted:To respond to each of these: This is literal IDF propaganda, what the actual gently caress
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Oct 18, 2023 12:53
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mightygerm posted:1. The IDF is currently the party dropping thousands of bombs into Gaza To respond to each of these: 1. Hamas also fire thousands of homemade rockets from Gaza, which fly over Gaza before they reach Israel. 2. Historically Hamas do not care where they fire their rockets from, and are known to use civilians as shields. 3. The building wasn't destroyed at all - some cars were destroyed and the parking lot was scorched. Hamas absolutely has munitions which can do that. 4. Accidents are common, but most don't land on hospitals so you don't hear about them. If you were told that a hospital was levelled in Gaza yesterday, all that means is that someone lied to you - the hospital is absolutely still standing. The tiles are still on the roof metres away from the explosion, for god's sake. A big flaming stink posted:This is literal IDF propaganda, what the actual gently caress Channel 4 fact-checked this and found that Hamas encourage civilians to ignore warnings from the IDF and also store rockets in schools. Sorry you love Hamas so much bro. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Morton Salt Grrl fucked around with this message at 13:02 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 12:53
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Nail Rat posted:Plus, the IDF said in the opening days that "no buildings will remain." They had also ordered the hospital or at least hospitals generally to evacuate shortly prior, correct?
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Oct 18, 2023 12:53
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They had also ordered the hospital or at least hospitals generally to evacuate shortly prior, correct? A blanket evacuation order for all hospitals in northern Gaza, several days prior.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:56
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mightygerm posted:1. The IDF is currently the party dropping thousands of bombs into Gaza re 3 - The building was not leveled afaik? It was a big explosion that hit outside where there was a bunch of people. Anyone feel free to correct me on that, but it doesn't seem overly useful to run around saying the hospital has been levelled when it categorically has not been.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:58
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Let's not overlook that Israel has plenty of priors, yesterday before the hospital bombing the WHO said that 115 medical facilities had been attacked by the IDF https://news.sky.com/story/israel-h...o-flee-12986264 quote:The World Health Organisation (WHO) says 115 health facilities have been attacked in Gaza during the conflict and warned of a long-term humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territory. And just a couple of days ago there was outrage because Israel's order for people to relocate from hospitals would get patients killed. E; Hieronymous Alloy posted:They had also ordered the hospital or at least hospitals generally to evacuate shortly prior, correct? Correct, I don't know if this hospital was included but there was anger just a couple of days ago because an order to abandon/evacuate something like two dozen hospitals would get patients killed without any bombs around, as well as the obvious question of "evacuate them to where?" Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 13:07 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:03
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Sunak and Biden are confirming they believe Israel and that it was a Hamas rocket misfire, seemingly citing the barely damaged car park as evidence. But they also seem to be sickened by the 500 killed in the hospital? Surely there aren't those casualties if it was a crappy rocket?
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Oct 18, 2023 13:04
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It says something that the IDFs knee jerk to a potential hospital bombing is the same sort of denial as when they do warcrimes. Which, they could have. An IDF rocket inception could have spiked a qassam into big oxygen tanks. But even if they didn't, the denial playbook sounds the same. That sort of automatic denial of potential warcrimes is so perverse that it needs its own public relations term.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Serious question: when has a single Hamas rocket ever managed this level of explosion? Kchama posted:That's where I don't have any certainty. I don't know enough about Israeli rockets/missiles/bombs to know if they got anything specifically around that boon, but it doesn't seem Hamas has anything that'd boom like that. As far as I know, they have a big gap in explosive ability between their big and small stuff. NotJustANumber99 posted:Sunak and Biden are confirming they believe Israel and that it was a Hamas rocket misfire, seemingly citing the barely damaged car park as evidence. But they also seem to be sickened by the 500 killed in the hospital? Surely there aren't those casualties if it was a crappy rocket? BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 13:15 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:06
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RandomPauI posted:It says something that the IDFs knee jerk to a potential hospital bombing is the same sort of denial as when they do warcrimes. Like the war crimes version of the narcissist prayer.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:08
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Paladinus posted:I don't think Rakosi is making a good case for it not being IDF because he can't even properly present the evidence IDF provide. However, I have to agree that 'because it happened before' is not a convincing argument either. The strongest evidence from the two sides, as I see it, is the following: Mulling it over and thinking about it, I will grant that it is possible that the Israelis are correct in saying that it was a Palestinian rocket and I am willing to listen even if I don't think that that's what happened. Still even with the most favorable set of facts, the Israelis essentially admitted that they reflectively justify bombing hospitals by saying that militants must have been there. I don't have any thing personally against Rakoshi.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:08
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I only just caught onto this, but it's one more for the pile: https://twitter.com/PalestineChron/status/1713616210913275932 Three days before this bombing, the hospital had already suffered prior damage. Allegedly two floors were significantly damaged, and four nurses were injured.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:08
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Thanks for posting that, seems fairly conclusive here. Tragic friendly fire. I think opinions became far too entrenched from the initial reporting of 500+ dead and the IDF bombing a hospital for there to be many walkbacks at this point, unfortunately. Hopefully the situation does not continue to get worse in terms of violent protests based on false Hamas propaganda.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:11
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I'm sort of out of the loop here, but zionism aside, why can't Israel just stick to its internationally recognized borders? Seems to me like there would be be none of this mess in the first place if they just colored inside the lines.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:15
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fatelvis posted:re 3 - The building was not leveled afaik? It was a big explosion that hit outside where there was a bunch of people. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-military-says-no-evidence-direct-hit-gaza-hospital-2023-10-18/ Obviously the denial from the IDF means nothing but you can clearly see the hospital still standing in the image. https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678 See also the images of the aftermath in this thread posted previously (not speaking for the credibility of the analysis otherwise). I haven't seen anything challenging the idea that little or no structural damage was done to any of the surrounding buildings (which seems much more concrete than trying to guess what kind of weapon was used based on the sound it made). (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 13:18 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:15
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:The IDF claims it was Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not Hamas, but the explanation that seemed plausible to me is that it was the solid rocket motor landing and exploding. Basically a mix of sugar and potassium nitrate which then turned into a big fireball. It's not the warhead, it's the fuel. Solid fuel's not particularly known for cooking off like that, and they don't have THAT much fuel. Unless you're wanting to claim that they somehow supercharged it so it'd have a much bigger explosion than the actual warhead would provide. Which sounds awfully farfetched to me. Just claiming it was the warhead itself would actually be more convincing.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:17
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snorch posted:I'm sort of out of the loop here, but zionism aside, why can't Israel just stick to its internationally recognized borders? Seems to me like there would be be none of this mess in the first place if they just colored inside the lines. They've colonized hard inside the majority of the internationally recognized west bank borders for starters
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Oct 18, 2023 13:19
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snorch posted:I'm sort of out of the loop here, but zionism aside, why can't Israel just stick to its internationally recognized borders? Seems to me like there would be be none of this mess in the first place if they just colored inside the lines. Yeah that's a really good question. I don't know what to tell you.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:19
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A big flaming stink posted:I personally think the most compelling evidence Israel did it was that the guy in charge of Israel's online propaganda took credit for the attack immediately after it happened. As vile and inhumane that tweet was, it's circumstantial evidence at best. He's a social media guy, not a military guy. He saw reports of a hospital being hit and deployed the usual horrible excuse of 'if it was hit, it means terrorists were hiding there'. Physical evidence is much stronger than tweets, generally speaking.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:22
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snorch posted:I'm sort of out of the loop here, but zionism aside, why can't Israel just stick to its internationally recognized borders? Seems to me like there would be be none of this mess in the first place if they just colored inside the lines. I’m not sure we can set Zionism aside and still explain it. Israeli extremist settlers keep building illegal colonies in Palestinian territory. They have guns and will resist eviction attempts with force. If Palestinians try to evict them with force, the Israeli military comes in and inflicts damage on them that’s an order of magnitude higher than whatever the Palestinians inflicted.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:23
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Irony Be My Shield posted:supposed deleted Tweets What do you mean "supposed"? People in this thread posted the tweets at the time and others pointed out the timestamps were wrong and then the tweets were edited or deleted.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:24
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Kchama posted:That's where I don't have any certainty. I don't know enough about Israeli rockets/missiles/bombs to know if they got anything specifically around that boon, but it doesn't seem Hamas has anything that'd boom like that. As far as I know, they have a big gap in explosive ability between their big and small stuff. https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1712103626057908641 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2023 13:26
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Yeah this is the big thing that flips it for me. A typical Israeli airstrike would've reduced that hospital to a crater, while what seems to have happened is a strike on the car park that destroyed a few cars in the initial explosion and resulted in several more catching fire. That's actually pretty consistent with the level of damage Palestinian rockets typically cause. The epicenter for the strike seems to be the middle of the courtyard, pretty far away from the buildings, most of the blast is going to be concentrated in the center directly below where the bomb detonated which is consistent with the three completely destroyed vehicles near the central crater. If you look at the pavement, there's serious distortion across the whole lot up to the edge of the scorch marks, and all the windows in the adjacent building are completely destroyed I will agree that this makes the situation much more ambiguous than it was, and the explanation that a misfire happened is somewhat more likely, but this still seems like an incredible amount of explosive force for the kind of rockets than Hamas typically fires. I know you're expecting a giant cartoon crater but ground is pretty difficult to displace this way and it looks like most of the blast was taken by a completely obliterated car AJE has video of the whole bombing run and IDF hit like 7 more places in the next 20 minutes and the fireball from their strikes looks exactly the same as the one that hit the hospital. 
Engorged Pedipalps fucked around with this message at 13:28 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:26
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snorch posted:I'm sort of out of the loop here, but zionism aside, why can't Israel just stick to its internationally recognized borders? Seems to me like there would be be none of this mess in the first place if they just colored inside the lines.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:26
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I'm not a rocket scientist but people who claim to be well-informed think it could've been a Badr-3 with plenty of solid fuel left. I dunno though. Rockets burn their fuel extremely quickly. Like unless they were literally launching from the hospital, it'd be empty. The burn rate on them (that is to say, how long they can accelerate until they are out of fuel) is 4 seconds. This is why I've been extremely skeptical of the "it was because of the huge amounts of fuel in them!" claims. Kchama fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:32
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Morton Salt Grrl posted:Channel 4 fact-checked this and found that Hamas encourage civilians to ignore warnings from the IDF and also store rockets in schools. Sorry you love Hamas so much bro. Did you read your fact check or just the headline. We can't view the video they use as proof because Youtube banned the channel. quote:But the Hamas-run Palestinian Authority’s Ministry of Interior has told residents not to pay attention to the IDF warnings. It's hardly proof they are using civilians as shields. All it claims is Hamas encourages civilians to defend their homes by staying put. People are still free to make up their own minds, which some do believing it's safer in their homes than to evacuate under fire. And that many civilians are killed by attacks without warnings. And given the attacks on humanitarian corridors I can see why some might consider the warnings a trap.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:34
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Israel warning somebody before bombing their house doesn't absolve them of murdering the people when they bomb the house should the residents stay. The people should not have to leave in the first place.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:35
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Engorged Pedipalps posted:AJE has video of the whole bombing run and IDF hit like 7 more places in the next 20 minutes and the fireball from their strikes looks exactly the same as the one that hit the hospital. Link to this? This would be the first hard evidence that could support that it was the Israelis. This theory would also need to contend with the fact that we can see the ground-based rockets firing not far away from the hospital, and its a difference of seconds rather than minutes (in what you just posted).
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Oct 18, 2023 13:37
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quote:We don’t know how many of the Palestinian fatalities are the result of people choosing to ignore warnings from the Israelis. We don't know how many fatalities at Auschwitz were the result of Jews, Poles, and Romani choosing to ignore warnings from the Nazis.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:37
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coelomate posted:
I also a bit disappointed in the rush to judgement here by the more fanatical goons. I don't expect any mea culpas from anyone either. It's more important to be first and loud than it is to be accurate I guess. daslog fucked around with this message at 13:47 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:41
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I think it’s going to be a while until there is definitive proof of what happened. And even then conspiracy theories will emerge to counter it. Today may be a good day to not spend a lot of time on the internet.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:44
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Here is a timeline of the Al-ahli Arabia Baptist Hospital bombing propaganda efforts with timestamps and references: - 17/10/23 at 20:23 UTC: We blew up a hospital because Hamas was hiding there. [1] - 17/10/23 at 20:25 UTC: It was a misfired Hamas rocket. [2] - 17/10/23 at 20:38 UTC: We warned them to evacuate the hospital. [3] - 17/10/23 for many hours: Here are videos of a misfired Hamas rocket. [4] - 18/10/23 at 02:45 UTC: OK, the timestamps/years are wrong. Here is the actual video of the misfired Hamas rocket. [5] - 18/10/23 at 08:50 UTC We bombed the hospital garage, but there were no direct hits on the hospital. [6] - 18/10/23 at 08:59 UTC: The death toll is exaggerated. [7] - 18/10/23 at 09:46 UTC: Here is a supposed call between two Hamas agents with perfect clarity discussing the rocket explosion in excruciating detail, including names and locations, with terms like "Israeli shrapnel." [8] 1:  2: https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1714346975326330957 3: https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1714350133167735040 4: https://twitter.com/KimJongwins/status/1714421107602678104 5: https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714442617201586220 6: https://twitter.com/AJA_Egypt/status/1714534502653993368 7: https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1714536639232712882 8: https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714548529538953637 The IDF's story is absolute garbage and should not be trusted. Their propaganda is lazy, full of holes, and inconsistent, and they don't want you to think about any of the previous contradicting statements they have previously made. There should be no doubt that the IDF perpetrated this horrific genocidal war crime.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:47
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Thanks for the roundup. So there was definitely some initial confusion but points 5 and 6 stand? e: 6 being that the hospital was not hit directly, that seems to be confirmed by photos we've seen of the aftermath. Can't see any other source where Israel claims they did this, they were consistently blaming Hamas after Naftali's initial autopilot moment Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 13:52
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Morton Salt Grrl posted:
I trust Hamas more than the IDF. It’s pretty easy to do, actually.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:02
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A full 2 decades after idiot goons bought up the bush administrations bullshit about Iraq having nukes, idiot goons are buying up Israeli bullshit about a magic Islamic jihad bomb blowing up the building Israel has been actively bombing (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2023 14:04
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Morton Salt Grrl posted:I get that people don't trust the IDF, but the alternative source is literally Hamas. You might remember them as the group that killed 1,000 Israeli civilians a couple of weeks ago - they may not be trustworthy sources of information! If we're going to go by dead civilians Israel's got them lapped a few times just this week let alone the past thirty years. They also lied in this exact way last time they bombarded Gaza.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:05
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