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the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

In theory, even a relatively small blast outside the hospital could cause many fatalities if it shattered windows and sent flying glass through packed crowds.

Especially if it turns out to be something like this:

Hong XiuQuan posted:

e: - tl;dr quite likely an Israeli drone strike; these explode above ground but powerfully which is why no crater but explains the large number of dead; the ceiling collapse was clarified by abu sitta (who lost his phone in the strike and wasn't able to update) - it collapsed the false ceiling in the operating theatres rather than the whole structure.

An above-ground explosion in a packed outdoor area would be absolutely murderous without leaving much of a crater, and would seem to point to a more sophisticated weapon exploding as intended rather than an accident.

I wonder if any bomb fragments are going to emerge, because that seems like it would be much more definitive evidence than trying to determine exactly what sort of weapon caused this based on pictures of the aftermath.

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mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

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♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023

Stanley Pain
Jun 16, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Brucolac posted:

But 3x warnings to flee and two previous missile strikes also paint a picture.

Yes, it paints Israel to be the blood thirsty, genocidal pos that it is and has been ever since it displaced the Indigenous populace of Palestine.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

ASK ME ABOUT MY
UNITED STATES MARINES
FUNKO POPS COLLECTION



Stanley Pain posted:

Yes, it paints Israel to be the blood thirsty, genocidal pos that it is and has been ever since it displaced the Indigenous populace of Palestine.

the holy poopacy posted:

I wonder if any bomb fragments are going to emerge, because that seems like it would be much more definitive evidence than trying to determine exactly what sort of weapon caused this based on pictures of the aftermath.

This is what it comes down to. Israel bombs hospitals. They have bombed that hospital in the past. Hamas and Doctors Without Borders say it was an Israeli missile. An Israel government spokesman said it was an Israeli missile at first before the scope of the crime became clear and they changed their story. The photos and videos Israel produced immediately afterwards to demonstrate it was Hamas rocket were shown to be hoaxes or of very dubious value.

There is no reason to believe anything other than this was an Israeli strike, unless somebody actually finds pieces of the weapon or other direct physical evidence to prove it otherwise. Seeing people argue based on single photos that the damage doesn't look like what they'd reckon the damage should look like really makes this feel like the birth of a new Truther movement.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
Israel just bombed a UN school

there's some insanely graphic footage of severely wounded children that i do not want to watch let alone post, but they certainly seem willing to slaughter everyone in gaza

Stanley Pain
Jun 16, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Gripweed posted:

This is what it comes down to. Israel bombs hospitals. They have bombed that hospital in the past. Hamas and Doctors Without Borders say it was an Israeli missile. An Israel government spokesman said it was an Israeli missile at first before the scope of the crime became clear and they changed their story. The photos and videos Israel produced immediately afterwards to demonstrate it was Hamas rocket were shown to be hoaxes or of very dubious value.

There is no reason to believe anything other than this was an Israeli strike, unless somebody actually finds pieces of the weapon or other direct physical evidence to prove it otherwise. Seeing people argue based on single photos that the damage doesn't look like what they'd reckon the damage should look like really makes this feel like the birth of a new Truther movement.


Some people have a hard time coping when "their side" isn't winning. We literally live in an age where the disinformation plays out in real time and people still choose to believe fantasy.

A big flaming stink posted:

Israel just bombed a UN school

there's some insanely graphic footage of severely wounded children that i do not want to watch let alone post, but they certainly seem willing to slaughter everyone in gaza

Oh FFS that enough Internet for today. gently caress....

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

the holy poopacy posted:

Especially if it turns out to be something like this:

An above-ground explosion in a packed outdoor area would be absolutely murderous without leaving much of a crater, and would seem to point to a more sophisticated weapon exploding as intended rather than an accident.

I wonder if any bomb fragments are going to emerge, because that seems like it would be much more definitive evidence than trying to determine exactly what sort of weapon caused this based on pictures of the aftermath.

No.

This kind of hypothesis is simply wrong until there's sufficient data. It's just shifting goalposts in an inevitable circle jerk of "other conclusions pointing to Israel". As opposed to data which confirms a: hospital itself doesn't appear directly hit and b: doesn't appear to be a bomb. None of that absolves Israel or Hamas, it's simply not addressed.

Drones don't magically vaporize, they leave a bunch of poo poo everywhere and you'd have seen it on the news by now. You now face the possibilities that someone brings in some RadioShack equivalent disassembled drone parts that say "this is the drone right here" for misinformation though! There's also the question of why would Israel use a drone on a hospital that has the same questionable logic as bombing it.

This is loving stupid. Let's wait for some actual data as we'll have it soon enough. I get that people are pissed at Israel but this thread is absolutely loving garbage hypotheticals and should be gassed.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Oct 18, 2023

Caros
May 14, 2008

A big flaming stink posted:

Israel just bombed a UN school

there's some insanely graphic footage of severely wounded children that i do not want to watch let alone post, but they certainly seem willing to slaughter everyone in gaza

Hey now. Have we considered this was a Hamas rocket and also listen to this audio between two random guys who may just be sitting at hakirya for all we know.

Sorry, that idf guy went to bed. Someone has to pick up the slack.

Seriously though, this is nightmarish and I rally wish I hadn't seen these photos on twitter this morning.

Brucolac
Jun 14, 2012
From that Guardian piece:

Hosam Naoum, Anglican Bishop of Jerusalem posted:

We received the two missiles that hit the hospital. We could see and tell that they are from an Israeli strike at the hospital. And then we received the warnings

Missiles first, then warnings, very cool and normal.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

A big flaming stink posted:

Israel just bombed a UN school

there's some insanely graphic footage of severely wounded children that i do not want to watch let alone post, but they certainly seem willing to slaughter everyone in gaza

Do you mean this one from yesterday morning, or was there another one?

https://twitter.com/UNRWA/status/1714309202955428169?t=X0ecaBE8kacv_QoBLJm_fA&s=19

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Drones don't magically vaporize, they leave a bunch of poo poo everywhere and you'd have seen it on the news by now. You now face the possibilities that someone brings in some RadioShack equivalent disassembled drone parts that say "this is the drone right here" for misinformation though! There's also the question of why would Israel use a drone on a hospital that has the same questionable logic as bombing it.

Drones also carry missiles, launch them and fly back to their base.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


https://twitter.com/ErielleReshef/status/1714644555369165072

Pentagon independently reaching the conclusion it was not a strike from Israel

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Biden at least seems to have gotten Israel to commit to allowing Egypt to transport humanitarian supplies, which is super important because UNRWA says they're totally out. That doesn't make all the other poo poo Biden's enabling okay, but it's better than literally nothing. Cynically I can't help wondering if Israel was specifically waiting to allow it until they could give Biden a win.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

CuddleCryptid posted:

Do you mean this one from yesterday morning, or was there another one?

https://twitter.com/UNRWA/status/1714309202955428169?t=X0ecaBE8kacv_QoBLJm_fA&s=19

the sources i saw claimed it happened 30 minutes ago

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Engorged Pedipalps
Apr 21, 2023

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Drones don't magically vaporize, they leave a bunch of poo poo everywhere and you'd have seen it on the news by now. You now face the possibilities that someone brings in some RadioShack equivalent disassembled drone parts that say "this is the drone right here" for misinformation though! There's also the question of why would Israel use a drone on a hospital that has the same questionable logic as bombing it.

I don't know if you're aware of this but many of the drones in use by NATO are just remotely operated aircraft, they carry and fire missiles. They then fly home, land, and are reloaded.

The drone footage from Iraq/Afghanistan is out there and drone operators in those conflicts have a habit of routinely targeting large groups of vehicles and people, they have a completely contextless view and are trained to maximize casualties.

Engorged Pedipalps fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Oct 18, 2023

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

coelomate posted:

https://twitter.com/ErielleReshef/status/1714644555369165072

Pentagon independently reaching the conclusion it was not a strike from Israel

It would be beneficial for the Pentagon to actually release their evidence rather than just saying they have evidence, especially given how the IDF's evidence has been repeatedly debunked.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

A big flaming stink posted:

the sources i saw claimed it happened 30 minutes ago

Could you post one of them? Because I can't find anything online for a recent hit, it's all blotted out by yesterday's.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!
Raise your hand if this surprises you

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1714651224815939902

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
This just in: America is The Great Satan

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

In the narrative that there was not actually a big explosion at the hospital via that Brown Moses picture, why are those cars burned out and mangled. Did Hamas place them there as part of the false flag?

Skex
Feb 22, 2012

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.
Re the hospital bombing, I don't give a gently caress who's ordinance caused the destruction Israel is responsible because they are the ones engaged in a illegal genocidal campaign of collective punishment in response to the acts of a small group of criminals.

Any discussion that ignores that reality is nothing more than genocide apologia.

frytechnician
Jan 8, 2004

Happy to see me?

CuddleCryptid posted:

Could you post one of them? Because I can't find anything online for a recent hit, it's all blotted out by yesterday's.

Yep, don't come into the thread saying something like this happened without a source.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Best Friends posted:

In the narrative that there was not actually a big explosion at the hospital via that Brown Moses picture, why are those cars burned out and mangled. Did Hamas place them there as part of the false flag?
Certainly not the huge building-levelling JDAM that people were claiming had been dropped last night. Although that certainly doesn't preclude it being a smaller Israeli strike from eg a rocket or drone.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

I think a major issue with this discussion is that almost all the arguments can be true at the same time but people feel like bending on any of it means bending on all of it. Even if it was a misfired rocket the honest answer is that it changes almost nothing about the actual situation. It, at best, means that in this particular circumstance the tragedy was an accident instead of an intentional choice.

Like the absolute best reading of the situation (insomuch as there is a 'best') is that Israel was bombing near a hospital (which is barely better than bombing a hospital) and an attempt at a counterattack hosed up. Israel preemptively justified what sounded like an atrocity because 'preemptively deny an atrocity' is so ingrained into the playbook it wasn't even considered that it might be an accident.

Maybe it's just me but "This particular atrocity was an accident among all the intentional atrocity" is not really a compelling argument in any direction.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

CuddleCryptid posted:

Could you post one of them? Because I can't find anything online for a recent hit, it's all blotted out by yesterday's.


frytechnician posted:

Yep, don't come into the thread saying something like this happened without a source.

the sources contain video of horribly wounded children i am not posting that under any circumstances

the other hand
Dec 14, 2003


43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade
"Ultima Ratio Liberalium"

TGLT posted:

It would be beneficial for the Pentagon to actually release their evidence rather than just saying they have evidence, especially given how the IDF's evidence has been repeatedly debunked.

They probably won’t release the details of their analysis, but it’s probably a good idea to wait until there’s a statement from the Pentagon itself, rather than trusting ‘ABC news says some government officials say that the Pentagon says…”. Even assuming good faith all around, that’s a lot of space for nuance to get lost.

e: it was good to post the ABC news thing though. Not criticizing that decision.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

TheRat posted:

Drones also carry missiles, launch them and fly back to their base.

Well of course, But I think people are ignoring the shifting of goal posts here from the Israel bomb to another Israel vector. they're still ignoring that we don't have enough information. It's enormous bias. there's still a humanitarian crisis and none of this excuses any of it, But it's absolutely stupid hypotheticals right now. Don't you think if it was a drone somebody would have suggested something before this morning on something awful? You bet they would. if it were a missile you'd be hearing about people finding the fragments for it too.

notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Oct 18, 2023

Engorged Pedipalps
Apr 21, 2023

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Certainly not the huge building-levelling JDAM that people were claiming had been dropped last night. Although that certainly doesn't preclude it being a smaller Israeli strike from eg a rocket or drone.

Yeah before we had pictures on the ground it was hard to tell the severity of the strike, people were assuming they were in a hardened building rather than sleeping in a courtyard. In hindsight it should have been obvious, the hospital has a max capacity of 80 beds so if they're operating at ten times capacity they're putting beds out in the yard

The explosion here, to be fair, is still absolutely huge. You can see the extent of how far the blast reached by just looking at the scorch marks and distortion in the pavement. If this was a rocket misfire, it would have had to have been a very large rocket, and the way the destruction is laid out in the courtyard seems more consistent with an air burst missile than a misfired rocket, but that's pure speculation on my part at this point.

I do think it's worth pointing out that the explosive seemed to come in at a very high speed that isn't really consistent with what we see in rocket attacks, and that makes less sense for an intercepted or misfired rocket, at least how I see it.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

notwithoutmyanus posted:

if it were a missile you'd be hearing about people finding the fragments for it too.

What are you suggesting it was then? Vacuum energy fluctuations?

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Certainly not the huge building-levelling JDAM that people were claiming had been dropped last night. Although that certainly doesn't preclude it being a smaller Israeli strike from eg a rocket or drone.

In your opinion, how small can a bit of ordinance be that turns a parking lot into mangled wrecks? In my opinion, it was pretty substantial or it was a very big slow fire. I have not seen any evidence of a big slow fire.

Is the idea that ordinance a) explodes on the ground as opposed to above it and b) when it explodes on concrete, leaves giant craters? I am a former artilleryman and I will tell you that both a and b are often not the case.

This OSINT debunking stuff to me seems about on the order of saying WTC building seven was a controlled demolition. It’s given undue credence because it aligns with the narratives western governments and their supporters want out there.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

pro starcraft loser posted:

So has this gone from 'Israel destroyed a hospital killing 500+' to 'something blew up the parking lot outside, death toll unknown'?

Or has the death toll been more or less confirmed?

It's not impossible for blowing up the parking lot outside to kill a bunch of people. Gaza's hospitals were warning about being well over capacity days ago, with reports of "seriously injured people lining the corridors" and long lines outside due to all the beds being full and all the doctors being busy. Moreover, there were multiple reports of tens of thousands of unhurt people flocking to the hospitals because they have nowhere else to go and hope that the hospitals might be less likely to get bombed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/17/gaza-main-hospital-overflows-with-living-dead-dar-al-shifa

quote:

At Gaza City’s Dar Al Shifa hospital, the living sleep between beds filled with patients, in corridors, and even in the grounds, while the dead overflow the morgue.

The name Dar Al Shifa translates as “house of healing”, and tens of thousands have sought not just healing but shelter from the bombardments that rained down on Gaza City every hour, praying the hospital might provide some protection. Printed blankets have been hung from the entrance courtyard’s iron handrails to provide shade, while some people have gathered around the stairwells with their children and all that remains of their belongings.

Shifa is not just Gaza’s largest medical facility, but the nerve centre of its entire healthcare system, and the Israeli assault on the territory has brought it to breaking point. Local authorities and aid groups in Gaza estimate that between 35,000 and 40,000 people are sheltering there.

“The doctors have brought their families into the hospital for safety. I slept on an operating room table last night,” said Prof Ghassan Abu-Sittah, one of the surgeons, speaking to the Guardian by phone.

“People are absolutely terrified, and so they think this is the safest place. Everything around them confirms that this is the safest place.”

He said the numbers seeking shelter presented a risk as thousands were seeking food and water where there is none. “The crowding is going to lead to an infectious disease outbreak. There is an impending public health catastrophe at Shifa hospital,” he said.


When Israeli artillery began to strike Gaza from the sky and sea, destroying whole city blocks after the Hamas militants who run the territory launched a murderous assault on Israel, many in Gaza City followed a procedure they had learned during previous attacks and fled for the hospital.

For over a decade, the grounds of the hospital have largely been spared from bombardments, apart from a strike that hit Shifa’s outpatient clinic in 2014. Instead, a wide area outside the doors to the emergency room welcomes the television crews, local politicians, healthcare workers and civilians who gather there, amid the sound of ambulance sirens and the constant sight of patients arriving on stretchers.

But this time, despite recent efforts by the International Committee of the Red Cross to renovate Shifa’s emergency room, the current crisis has tested the hospital to its limits.

Last week, Israeli officials ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip, cutting off supplies of water, food, and fuel, meaning Shifa risks losing not just losing mains power to the hospital but also the diesel supplies needed for its backup generators. Days later, the Israeli military issued an evacuation order for all 1.1 million people north of the Gaza River including Gaza City, demanding that they flee south. Shifa hospital, along with several other medical facilities, said evacuating would be impossible. The World Health Organization called the order to evacuate hospitals a “death sentence” for the thousands of sick and injured.

The assault on a territory that had already endured a 16-year blockade meant it was less than a week before Abu-Sittah was warning colleagues that the hospital was at breaking point.

There were already no beds left in Shifa, he said, and patients could not get to the operating rooms that were full of people. “All hospitals are beyond capacity,” he said. The fuel was almost out, and medical supplies were running perilously low.

The Shifa hospital morgue, with capacity for 30 bodies, quickly filled. Hospital workers were forced to stack corpses outside a walk-in refrigerator. Dozens more were laid side by side in the parking area, some in a tent and others in the sun. “The bodies are stacked up. People are too afraid to bury their dead,” said Abu-Sittah.


Abu Elias Shobaki, a nurse, told Associated Press: “Now it’s a graveyard. I am emotionally, physically exhausted. I just have to stop myself from thinking about how much worse it will get.”

Yet as other hospitals in northern Gaza were forced to close, due to either evacuation orders or fears that they would be targeted, their patients were transferred to Shifa.

“Right now, a quarter of all patients in the Gaza Strip are in Shifa,” said Dr Zaher Sahloul of MedGlobal, which is supporting medical facilities in Gaza. “It’s an added strain besides the families of the doctors and nurses, and patients, and journalists who are all sheltered there.”

The medical staff at Shifa have found themselves treating wounded family members and sometimes grieving for their own colleagues.

One evening, Dr Medhat Saidam, who had worked there since 2008, decided to accompany his sister home to where 30 of his family members were sheltering. He decided to stay with them overnight; at 1am, he was killed along with his entire family.

“We are no longer able to do anything but the most lifesaving surgeries. Not only have the supplies been exhausted, but the staff have also been exhausted,” Abu-Sittah said. “A lot of them have either been killed, or their family members have been killed, or they’re trying to secure their families.”

As a machine bleeped in the background, Abu-Sittah breathed the deep breaths of an exhausted man as he described some of the cases arriving at the hospital. “This morning we had two children from different places, both severely injured and who both carried the term ‘wounded child, no surviving family’.

“It’s one of the most heartbreaking things you can ever see. You have difficulty understanding how while the emergency department is full of screaming relatives and patients, doctors and nurses rushing round, then you come to this quiet place where there’s a trolley, and a wounded child and no one around them except the medical staff.”

He added: “This is a war against children. Even the survivors will spend the rest of their lives on their own.”

That's a different hospital, of course, but it's probably safe to assume it's not the only hospital facing those issues. In circumstances like that, it's plausible that even a parking lot explosion could be a mass casualty event.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

A big flaming stink posted:

the sources contain video of horribly wounded children i am not posting that under any circumstances

Okay well you have to at least post someone talking about it or a news article.

There is a video that is going around on social media but it isn't from anyone reputable, and UNRWA hasn't put out a statement, neither have reputable news orgs. We have no idea when or where that video was recorded. When people online are just posting whatever the gently caress they want for engagement we want to make sure.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1714650039828820333?t=gWAKCYLfH0Lggfzg30YFvw&s=19

OK joe

CuddleCryptid fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Oct 18, 2023

Decon
Nov 22, 2015


Best Friends posted:

Is the idea that ordinance a) explodes on the ground as opposed to above it and b) when it explodes on concrete, leaves giant craters? I am a former artilleryman and I will tell you that both a and b are often not the case.

Stolen from CSPAM's thread:



We've been building and using bombs for centuries and continuously improving them along the way. Every inch of displaced surface is wasted energy when you're trying to kill people and damage buildings in the blast area.

This idea that it cannot have been a targeted bomb because there's not a great, smoking crater seems, to me, to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how bombs are used, and just how much energy it takes to move a significant amount of concrete/asphalt and dry, compacted soil.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

TheRat posted:

What are you suggesting it was then? Vacuum energy fluctuations?

There's a thing called waiting for actual facts and data to come out?I generally like to make conclusions from that.

if we had something to make a solid conclusion I'm pretty sure the information would actually be provided. We don't have it.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!
However, we cannot allow the UN to ask Israel to pause this for humanitarian aid.

Mind you, France and the UK also vetoed the resolution.

edit: this was in response to Joe up there

Zzulu
May 15, 2009

(▰˘v˘▰)
Is it really important who blew it up?

If the Israeli government did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

If Hamas did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

According to this article there were 3,000 people taking refuge at the hospital including people all over the hospital grounds. Not surprising for the parking lot area to be packed.

Also lots of photos I didnt see anything :nms: but click at your own discretion
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/10/18/gazas-ahli-arab-hospital-after-the-attack-that-killed-at-least-500-people

Specifically though note the caption

Mia Wasikowska fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Oct 18, 2023

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Best Friends posted:

In your opinion, how small can a bit of ordinance be that turns a parking lot into mangled wrecks? In my opinion, it was pretty substantial or it was a very big slow fire. I have not seen any evidence of a big slow fire.

Is the idea that ordinance a) explodes on the ground as opposed to above it and b) when it explodes on concrete, leaves giant craters? I am a former artilleryman and I will tell you that both a and b are often not the case.

This OSINT debunking stuff to me seems about on the order of saying WTC building seven was a controlled demolition. It’s given undue credence because it aligns with the narratives western governments and their supporters want out there.
The reason I am saying it's not a building-levelling JDAM is because we now have plenty of photos of the building in question still standing.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Zzulu posted:

Is it really important who blew it up?

If the Israeli government did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

If Hamas did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

PIJ, not HAMAS. But it's as important as whether the dead babies were beheaded or just shot. It's tragic that 100 attacks with 5 dead attract less media attention combined than 1 with 500 dead.

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Medium Chungus
Feb 19, 2012

Zzulu posted:

Is it really important who blew it up?

If the Israeli government did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

If Hamas did it, they are monsters. But then, they are already monsters.

Gonna add to this that neither side is going to admit they hit it anyway. Business as usual.

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