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psydude posted:IDF is saying the propellant is what caused the explosion. Some of the failed Russian S-300 launches caused fairly big explosions, so I suppose it's plausible. s-300s are not small by any means
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Oct 18, 2023 09:34
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psydude posted:IDF is saying the propellant is what caused the explosion. Some of the failed Russian S-300 launches caused fairly big explosions, so I suppose it's plausible. Qassams and PIJ's rockets don't really have the kind of propellant that'd cook off like that, as far as I'm aware. This is suppose to be a Hamas rocket that 'misfired', though, so I have no idea how it'd cause that kind of damage. Qassams are piddly. Kchama fucked around with this message at 09:47 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 09:43
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Some of the rockets that Hamas fired on the first day managed to reach north of Tel-Aviv. One would think that they would have already used their longer range stuff early on, but is it possible that something with that kind of range could do the job? Israel tends to hand-wave away collateral damage, so the degree to which they're pushing back on this makes me think they're either right or they realize that they really hosed up.
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Oct 18, 2023 10:06
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psydude posted:Some of the rockets that Hamas fired on the first day managed to reach north of Tel-Aviv. One would think that they would have already used their longer range stuff early on, but is it possible that something with that kind of range could do the job? I imagine it didn't help that one of their government official guys crowed how awesome it was that they did it. I think Israel's big issue is actually how BAD this would be for them. Like they can hand-wave away collateral damage, but this was such a big death toll from a single hit and so publicly shouted about that even they can't just ignore it.
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Oct 18, 2023 10:09
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So either the country that dropped several thousand bombs on Gaza in the last few weeks hit a hospital, or Hamas somehow developed a heretofore unknown rocket, one much more powerful than we have ever seen them use, and dropped it on themselves. One of those options is much more plausible than the other.
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Oct 18, 2023 10:59
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https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1714526575058645290 Allegedly, this is footage from the same site from both Israel and Hamas. This doesn't necessarily absolve Israel of culpability, but that is NOT the kind of damage you see from the ordnance we've seen Israel employ so far. That's not bomb damage.
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Oct 18, 2023 11:11
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That 500 dead number might be a bit inflated.
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Oct 18, 2023 11:40
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A.o.D. posted:https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1714526575058645290 What DOES fit that is the question. Borscht posted:That 500 dead number might be a bit inflated. I think we knew that for a while.
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Oct 18, 2023 11:48
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It seems to fit a theory that something blew up the oxygen tanks outside the building causing a massive fire ball. That still raises the question of what could have blown them up though
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Oct 18, 2023 11:56
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Kchama posted:What DOES fit that is the question. I'm going to keep on doing what I've been doing, which is understand that both sides have demonstrated a callous disregard for civilian casualties and a willingness to spin any narrative out of whole cloth, and not jump to conclusions. That I'm willing to accept those images as possibly/probably true is that both sides have published what strongly seem to be different angles of the same location, each using that image to their own end. I'm not going to accept any pro-Israeli or pro-Hamas outlet at face value. I COULD scream at a stranger about what I think is true, but instead I'm going to await more evidence and maybe eventually draw a conclusion. RandomPauI posted:It seems to fit a theory that something blew up the oxygen tanks outside the building causing a massive fire ball. That still raises the question of what could have blown them up though loving anything, to include a guy taking a smoke break if conditions are right. Oxygen tanks are great at fireballing or contributing mightily to fireballs. As far as I'm concerned, these photos only place a constraint on the upper limit of what could have caused the explosion/conflagration (i.e. definitely not a JDAM), not on who did it. edit: Another photo, possibly of an impact crater. Still not a JDAM. Maybe a mortar or small rocket? Again, this doesn't prove a drat thing. It's not like how there were photos of an ATACMS core in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714587746612740278 A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 12:04 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 12:00
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A.o.D. posted:I'm going to keep on doing what I've been doing, which is understand that both sides have demonstrated a callous disregard for civilian casualties and a willingness to spin any narrative out of whole cloth, and not jump to conclusions. That I'm willing to accept those images as possibly/probably true is that both sides have published what strongly seem to be different angles of the same location, each using that image to their own end. I'm not going to accept any pro-Israeli or pro-Hamas outlet at face value. Yeah I don't have any certainty either way. I still think by default Israel is more likely to have done it, but accidents do happen. I just haven't seen anything convincing in any direction.
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Oct 18, 2023 12:31
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Depending on who you ask either the hospital is a pile of rubble with 500 bodies inside, or some cars in the parking lot got lightly bbq'ed. Seems like this should be something that could be figured out in a territory the size of Manhattan that has literally the whole world watching it right now.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:29
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mrmcd posted:Depending on who you ask either the hospital is a pile of rubble with 500 bodies inside, or some cars in the parking lot got lightly bbq'ed. Seems like this should be something that could be figured out in a territory the size of Manhattan that has literally the whole world watching it right now. https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678?s=20 OSINTers are one of the reasons I still watch my twitter feed.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:36
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678?s=20 I've found that even OSINT'ers need to be taken with a bucketful of salt in this case, even ones that have been doing very reliable and well-researched work on other conflicts have jumped headfirst into ideologically motivated full support for extremely poorly sourced poo poo coming out of this conflict. So even if it's your favourite poster's take, I'd let any of it cook for a week before coming to a conclusion. This one seems legit, but I remember that for most of yesterday even the most well-regarded OSINT'ers were reposting footage from years ago as evidence of one side or the other being right.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:44
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Yeah, propaganda houses have discovered it as a communications channel with the air of credibility.
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Oct 18, 2023 13:53
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Kchama posted:The theory of someone making poo poo up. Yeah, hence my "I'm still 95% convinced the IDF is behind it". I was just repeating the "explanation" I had seen explaining how one rocket caused an entire hospital to go up. Probably should have been more clear when I posted that. My bad.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:10
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At a minimum, at least everyone isn't just taking the IDF's claims, or even America's claims, as the gospel truth without proof anymore. Possibly overcorrecting into giving too much credibility to organizations that are just Hamas but disguised behind an agency name, but beats the alternative.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:32
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Anyone who has been posting that one side or the other definitely did this needs to pause for a moment and reevaluate their biases. There are, imo, valid reasons for wanting to back one side or the other, and demonization is nearly obligatory if you have a side in this conflict. This isn't the Hamas thread or the IDF thread, though. Hopefully we can get a little more factual in here.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:39
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mrmcd posted:Depending on who you ask either the hospital is a pile of rubble with 500 bodies inside, or some cars in the parking lot got lightly bbq'ed. Seems like this should be something that could be figured out in a territory the size of Manhattan that has literally the whole world watching it right now. A.o.D. posted:Anyone who has been posting that one side or the other definitely did this needs to pause for a moment and reevaluate their biases. There are, imo, valid reasons for wanting to back one side or the other, and demonization is nearly obligatory if you have a side in this conflict. This isn't the Hamas thread or the IDF thread, though. Hopefully we can get a little more factual in here. People in here and the other Israel thread were all to ready to jump to a thousand fuckin conclusions without waiting for data, though. And now we have data and it doesn't support all the hare brained poo poo people came up with in the thread.  Like I said, Israel has a bad reputation does not = any sort of answer to what happened. They might be at fault or they might not, but people should probably stop this poo poo. This thread has been the absolute worst for this I've ever seen. I could quote myself but holy poo poo did you guys go back and forth debating on generally minimal information.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:49
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Saw some video of the hospital parking lot (not NSFW, no blood or anything of the sort from the two videos I've seen). Just a whole bunch of torched cars and no big crater like you'd expect with a JDAM, and buildings with windows blown out. I hope those casualty figures were highly inflated.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:49
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Like I said, Israel has a bad reputation does not = any sort of answer to what happened. While I've been slower to jump to a conclusion (also if Israel did it or not, they are still directly responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians and cutting water and humanitarian access to civilians in collective punishment), it did not help that a social media advisor to PM Netanyahu and a reserve IDF member posted this, in response to the incident: 
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Oct 18, 2023 15:02
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I think this would kind of explain a lot of why this clusterfucked so much: https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1714641493338542155?t=mVWILK9te3UypSyDoZZUAw&s=19 IDF: wasn't us (could be true!) Hamas: wasn't us (could also be true!) As a reporter stated, Hamas doesn't have all of the hostages in Gaza right now. Hamas isn't the only terrorist group active in/around Gaza. So Hamas and the IDF both said it wasn't them, Hamas inflates the numbers because they think IDF did it, the Arab world gets pissed and cancels meetings with Biden, and it turns out it was an Islamic Jihad rocket instead. Edit: good article on the whole deal, basically leading to the same result as most others - inconclusive, with the lack of a big crater being very fishy https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67144061 facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 15:14
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PurpleXVI posted:I've found that even OSINT'ers need to be taken with a bucketful of salt in this case, even ones that have been doing very reliable and well-researched work on other conflicts have jumped headfirst into ideologically motivated full support for extremely poorly sourced poo poo coming out of this conflict. Ding ding ding. There's a lot of people out there who are calling themselves OSINT wonks because they find and comment on images of events from social media. That's not at all what high quality OSINT is all about. Stick to what is actually valuable from OSINT: write-ups that are thoroughly researched and with so much evidence that you really can't debate it. Anyone can give a gut reaction to a random post, but an actual honest to God researcher who is trying to convince the public of something is going to give a substantial report that, if researched right, leaves very little wiggle room for reinterpretation.
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Oct 18, 2023 20:25
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Potato Salad posted:There's a lot of people out there who are calling themselves OSINT wonks because they find and comment on images of events from social media. That's not at all what high quality OSINT is all about. Yeah, be skeptical of aggregators. But at the same time, there's plenty of people who didn't just jump on the OSINT bandwagon recently, but did OSINT as far back as Syria. Following the Ukraine war should have given anyone the opportunity to learn who the most sober clear name security professionals on twitter are, and sticking to whom those repost gives you a measure of reliability.
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Oct 18, 2023 21:09
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https://twitter.com/WHOoPt/status/1714713833359466702?t=krI0JdOFz8PSzYYcdXvVwg&s=19 Dang look at all these failed rocket attacks E) for real though, there's your death toll confirmation. Radical 90s Wizard fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 22:30
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Regarding the hospital crater: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/10/18/identifying-possible-crater-from-gaza-hospital-blast/ -There is indeed a crater -Photography of that crater correctly geolocates to the right site -It really doesn't look like a JDAM of any weight -Just going off of video that can be found so far, Bellingcat counts two dozen visible bodies -More research is needed Also, quote:One of the images that [IDF Spokesperson] Hagari held up during the press conference to support the claim that there were no craters at the site shows what appears to be a crater in a location corresponding with the Instagram video. The IDF did not immediately reply to a request for comment.  Edit vv it's worth pointing out that any speculation about what it could be is deliberately absent. My read: these authors tend to be circumspect like this when it's not clear what the ordinance could be. More footage needs to be found. Frustratingly, this takes time. Hopefully someone somewhere relatively nearby has an alley camera or pet monitor and notices the anomaly. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 22:37
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JDAM's can be set to airburst FYI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYApLv6kJnA The crater size is hardly the smoking gun that it was a Hamas or IJ rocket misfire.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:29
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https://vxtwitter.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1714649681521791305
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Oct 18, 2023 23:44
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kill me now posted:JDAM's can be set to airburst FYI The fact that the cars and surrounding buildings weren't completely shredded, however, is a mark against the cause being a JDAM. So damned predictable.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:57
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i am perplexed where the idea that a jdam or a single specific type of palestinian rocket are the only two possibilities even came from
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Oct 19, 2023 00:17
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A.o.D. posted:The fact that the cars and surrounding buildings weren't completely shredded, however, is a mark against the cause being a JDAM. Ok, SDB or MLGB then. Its not like the IAF doesn't have a whole range of different sized ordinance. Its not GBU-31's all the way down
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Oct 19, 2023 00:20
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This is a report on the hospital situation by the UK's most consistently rigorous and objective news broadcaster. In brief, they conclude that the IDF audio evidence is fake. The IDF explanation for the missile launch sites and trajectories is inconsistent and contradictory. The damage to the ground is not inconsistent with it being an IDF munition. That shitloads of people were there and did die. The IDF lie about murdering people all the time. And that there's no way to be sure who launched the weapon without independent investigation on the ground, which isn't happening any time soon. Warning for a blurred out carpet of bodies in the aftermath. https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast-visual-investigation Edit: and here's a near repeat from tonight at a different hospital https://twitter.com/PalestineRCS/status/1714721700028293171 Lovely Joe Stalin fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 00:26
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Does the IDF still use DIME warheads? I heard about them mostly because of the wounds they cause; I haven't heard anything about the blast effects they leave behind.
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Oct 19, 2023 05:18
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i am perplexed where the idea that a jdam or a single specific type of palestinian rocket are the only two possibilities even came from I'm impressed by how much some people are digging in on their preferred narrative.
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Oct 19, 2023 07:04
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https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/status/1714654108538310727 Remember Israeli bombed the Gaza Egypt border four times already and demanded Egypt let nothing in. Here's a machine translation of Bibi's stuff quote:
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Oct 19, 2023 08:43
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That feels like Israel acceding to the US while trying to save face.
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Oct 19, 2023 08:55
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I'm curious to get the serviceman's opinion on this video. https://www.reddit.com/r/Palestine/comments/17bc7kw/dylan_griffith_a_us_army_veteran_debunks_idf_claim/ (Sorry I have no idea how to embed from Reddit, I'm pretty new to that site. If you have a better link I'll change it.) It doesn't seem to conflict with the impact site photos, which I do not think were available at the time of filming, If it was in fact an airburst munition. I guess specifically I want to know about his assertion that the audio evidence proves it was guided and that many soldiers deployed to Afghanistan/Iraq would recognize the difference between this and a rocket.
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Oct 19, 2023 11:53
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Per WSJ, a growing number of independent analysts are disputing the notion that it was an air strike. The US has stated flat out that it wasn't, and so far the US military has erred on the side of not commenting on what's happening. The air burst theory really feels like a reach here as well. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-ea...share_permalink
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Oct 19, 2023 12:06
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James Woods posted:I'm curious to get the serviceman's opinion on this video. https://www.reddit.com/r/Palestine/comments/17bc7kw/dylan_griffith_a_us_army_veteran_debunks_idf_claim/ (Sorry I have no idea how to embed from Reddit, I'm pretty new to that site. If you have a better link I'll change it.) It doesn't seem to conflict with the impact site photos, which I do not think were available at the time of filming, If it was in fact an airburst munition. I guess specifically I want to know about his assertion that the audio evidence proves it was guided and that many soldiers deployed to Afghanistan/Iraq would recognize the difference between this and a rocket. I can say that the noise before the impact threw me back to the 2nd Lebanon War, where I spent a lot of time dodging various incoming rockets and mortars courtesy of hezbollah. Obviously a crappy mobile phone recording won't really capture the full sound, but it sounded like a rocket motor to me  e: also I'm kinda surprised by the way some posters here are trying to pin this on Israel. A) There are a lot of credible debunking breakdowns, including multiple angles of the failed rocket and the impact, and B) There are enough terrible things that we did do, no need to go to great lengths for that unfortunately... Don't Ask fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 12:30
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Don't Ask posted:There are enough terrible things that we did do, no need to go to great lengths for that unfortunately... It’s true that Israel has committed war crimes and engaged in illegal collective punishment of civilians, proudly, even without mention of the hospital. So if somehow we could know 100000% that Israel was not responsible for the hospital, you still end up with dozens of other Israeli attacks on medical facilities and healthcare workers, civilians, and cutting off good water and electricity to civilians and humanitarian medical and aid supply systems.
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Oct 19, 2023 13:12
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