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NovemberMike posted:with few assumptions it looks like a rocket that Hamas/PIJ shot. actually with few assumptions this rocket: https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1714337776873640216 was fired by Israel like this rocket: https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1714703569742422201
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Oct 18, 2023 23:09
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Rakosi posted:I simultaneously think Israel is committing genocide while trying to remain objective when huge, unfolding events happen, and base my conclusions on what seems most likely based on the physical evidence available. Immediately after the explosion, it was claimed by Hamas that IDF struck and 500+ were killed. No one waited for evidence of this, they just believed Hamas officials and ran the story. 11 hours ago Gaza Report posted that there were no sign of mass casualties being evacuated to nearby health centers, so unless this information is false it’s likely the death toll is an exaggeration too. And I’m sure we all hope it is. What exactly is Gaza Report? How is it credible? Edit: Saw this has already been brought up and punishment is queued accordingly. Koos Group fucked around with this message at 23:22 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 23:17
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Woke Mind Virus posted:actually with few assumptions this rocket: Those look very different though. In the hospital strike you see the area brighten at 1 second, then when it pans over the cloud is consistently bright up until the middle of second 3 and dies down mostly by the end of second 4. In the Israeli strike you see a single ultrabright flash for a moment in second 2 that dies down to bright sparks around a dark cloud within half a second or so. First one is a long burn, the second is a flash with little burning material in the cloud.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:22
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Woke Mind Virus posted:actually with few assumptions this rocket: Those sound like JDAMS. Holy crap. Was the top video confirmed the strike that hit the hospital? NovemberMike posted:Those look very different though. In the hospital strike you see the area brighten at 1 second, then when it pans over the cloud is consistently bright up until the middle of second 3 and dies down mostly by the end of second 4. In the Israeli strike you see a single ultrabright flash for a moment in second 2 that dies down to bright sparks around a dark cloud within half a second or so. First one is a long burn, the second is a flash with little burning material in the cloud. Not at all though. Look and sound quite similar.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:23
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Stanley Pain posted:Those sound like JDAMS. Holy crap. Was the top video confirmed the strike that hit the hospital? Yes, I don't know it's been absolutely proven, but no one on either side has disputed it.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:25
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Stanley Pain posted:Those sound like JDAMS. Holy crap. Was the top video confirmed the strike that hit the hospital? It's been stated to be the case almost from the time of the events, I'm not aware of any evidence to the contrary but of course it's impossible to confirm.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:26
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Very interesting article from Bellingcat, and some other information coming out from Channel 4 news (a UK news organisation with a decent reputation). The number of dead does unfortunately seem to be (approximately) confirmed. Various western governments and other independent organisations claim to have independently verified (with various degrees of uncertainty) the number of dead and injured, and it is close to the original figures that were reported. Channel 4 news have reported that the voice recording released by the IDF is a fake. The IDF news conference unfortunately has been shown to make a number of false claims: * The IDF claimed the number of casualties was inflated. Unfortunately, it seems it wasn't. * The IDF claimed there were no craters identified at the site. Their own image, and subsequent videos, have shown an impact crater. * The IDF released a voice recording. Channel 4 News is now reporting that this is faked. This video provides an overall summary (it's appropriately censored): https://www.channel4.com/news/who-was-behind-the-gaza-hospital-blast-visual-investigation And here's the article from Bellingcat: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/10/18/identifying-possible-crater-from-gaza-hospital-blast/ If the IDF is responsible, it's unclear what kind of munition was used. If the IDF isn't responsible, they've now been shown to have repeatedly released misleading and contradictory information. They've made claims that have been shown to be false. And now they have been accused of fabricating evidence. It's also worth mentioning that (I'm told) one of the primary goals of US government at this time is to prevent regional escalation of the conflict. It's worth viewing US government statements (and statements attributed to US government sources) with that in mind.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:27
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NovemberMike posted:Those look very different though. In the hospital strike you see the area brighten at 1 second, then when it pans over the cloud is consistently bright up until the middle of second 3 and dies down mostly by the end of second 4. In the Israeli strike you see a single ultrabright flash for a moment in second 2 that dies down to bright sparks around a dark cloud within half a second or so. First one is a long burn, the second is a flash with little burning material in the cloud. Camera auto-exposure. the first was filmed in near darkness aside from the immediate locale. The second was filmed in a brightly lit area. A phone camera will auto adjust exposure, and filming in the dark will capture more light, like filming flashes from fireworks or the diffuse light of smoke illuminated by fire. Stop grasping at straws. Rigged Death Trap fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 23:28
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TGLT posted:some one should tell the world health organization That 471 number appears to come from the Gaza Health Ministry's claims. https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...w/104531138.cms Again, people are just reporting and repeating claims/allegations without independent verification, which is why we should wait until facts can be actually verified. fatelvis posted:In your expert opinion, how many people died? Given you clearly have a great deal of insight on the matter and you're a super big expert on this poo poo. Regardless of what evidence has been presented in this thread and verified in the news, you probably wouldn't believe it.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:36
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TGLT posted:some one should tell the world health organization Crazy to think that 136 Hamas rockets all misfired and hit hospitals and ambulances. Or wait, maybe that's the wrong thing to believe? Right, we are supposed to believe that Israel targeted and attacked 135 hospitals and ambulances, but this one that people are mad about was just a fluke accidental rocket misfire in exactly the spot Israel had ordered evacuated. Or wait, that sounds stupid, too. There must be some way to believe that this wasn't Israel without coming across as a complete rube. There must be. Also, at the end of the Sopranos, Tony was shot by Hamas. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2023 23:40
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ASIC v Danny Bro posted:Regardless of what evidence has been presented in this thread and verified in the news, you probably wouldn't believe it. What on earth is this even supposed to mean? This is just pure nothing trying to disguise itself as wit.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:44
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btw that is an official WHO account and it's being reposted by the main WHO account at https://twitter.com/WHO
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Oct 18, 2023 23:44
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Rigged Death Trap posted:Camera auto-exposure. Camera auto-exposure doesn't explain it. Look at the way the surrounding areas are lit up, the hospital attack provides relatively consistent illumination for several seconds, the JDAM strike illuminates the surroundings for a fraction of a second. It just doesn't look like the aftereffects of a military high explosive. The biggest problem with it being a JDAM is that none of them really match. The crater is too small for even a 500 lb bomb going off on impact. If it's airbursting (I've tried to check the arm sale notifications and I don't see DSU-33's sent to Israel) why is the illumination so long? It could be a hellfire but that wouldn't explain the scale. Every munition expert I've seen has said the same thing, it doesn't really look like any of the Israeli munitions and there's no fuel storage or anything on the ground that would explain it.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:48
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A few people were discussing munitions and different crater sizes. If anyone is confused as to how a large munition could leave a small crater, a poster from another thread posted a very informative video showing how modern airburst munitions can work. In this case, an "Airburst MK.83 GBU-32 JDAM" according to the demo video. Bear in mind while it's just a demonstration video showing the explosion on a test site, the music is really inappropriate given the context we're discussing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYApLv6kJnA n.b. This post is entirely focused on crater sizes. I don't have the knowledge/experience to determine what caused the explosion in question. I'm just trying to shed some light on how a large munition can leave a small crater.
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Oct 18, 2023 23:57
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NovemberMike posted:Camera auto-exposure doesn't explain it. Look at the way the surrounding areas are lit up, the hospital attack provides relatively consistent illumination for several seconds, the JDAM strike illuminates the surroundings for a fraction of a second. It just doesn't look like the aftereffects of a military high explosive. who are these munition experts that you have seen that have come to this conclusion
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Oct 19, 2023 00:05
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From an artillery perspective, which I presume is the same for bombs, an air burst is optimal for killing personnel. Shrapnel, flash and overpressure goes directly onto the people with minimal interruption from terrain and any cover they may be beside. It is the reason time fuzes exist for high explosive projectiles. The charred cars, the high casualties, the lack of a big crater - absolutely none of this is inconsistent. To the contrary it’s exactly what you’d expect if you were trying to kill a lot of people who are outside with high explosives.
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Oct 19, 2023 00:05
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Aertuun posted:A few people were discussing munitions and different crater sizes. If anyone is confused as to how a large munition could leave a small crater, a poster from another thread posted a very informative video showing how modern airburst munitions can work. In this case, an "Airburst MK.83 GBU-32 JDAM" according to the demo video. I don't think people quite understand that 'JDAM' is not a specific type of bomb in and of itself, but a reference to the upgrade kit that turns dumb bombs into smart bombs. That seems to cause a lot of the confusion as they seem to think that when someone says 'JDAM' they mean a massive bomb that leaves a 10 meter deep crater. When in fact it could basically be any kind of bomb. Either way, the building wasn't destroyed simply because it wasn't directly hit. There was a lot of secondary effects from a good-sized explosion happening a decent ways away from the building being reported. I'm mostly just putting all of this because some people were taking the fact that the building is still standing as proof that it couldn't have been a bomb.
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Oct 19, 2023 00:05
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Kchama posted:I don't think people quite understand that 'JDAM' is not a specific type of bomb in and of itself, but a reference to the upgrade kit that turns dumb bombs into smart bombs. That seems to cause a lot of the confusion as they seem to think that when someone says 'JDAM' they mean a massive bomb that leaves a 10 meter deep crater. When in fact it could basically be any kind of bomb. Israel also has non-JDAM bombs. I think we send them GBU-39s which would be lighter, and I think they also have armed UAVs with air to surface missiles.
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Oct 19, 2023 00:14
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 00:28
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NovemberMike posted:(I've tried to check the arm sale notifications and I don't see DSU-33's sent to Israel) They got 500 of the slightly fancier dsu-38 along with one of their somewhat recent big buys here https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2015/06/03/2015-13478/36b1-arms-sales-notification
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Oct 19, 2023 00:44
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A lot of OSINT and reporting on the hospital showing it clearly wasn't the target: https://x.com/shayan86/status/1714660234638016963?s=46 Even if inconclusive, it's clear if the hospital was meant to be destroyed by the IDF it would have been. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 19, 2023 01:01
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i fly airplanes posted:A lot of OSINT and reporting on the hospital showing it clearly wasn't the target: https://x.com/shayan86/status/1714660234638016963?s=46 The last picture at that link shows the brickwork in the courtyard. An airburst has been offered up as a possibility, seems like someone ought to be able to rule it in or out looking at that.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:07
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i fly airplanes posted:A lot of OSINT and reporting on the hospital showing it clearly wasn't the target: https://x.com/shayan86/status/1714660234638016963?s=46 Jesus, that article says 1000 people were camped out in the courtyard? No wonder it was so deadly.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:07
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i fly airplanes posted:Even if inconclusive, it's clear if the hospital was meant to be destroyed by the IDF it would have been. TBH, as depressing as it is, this is the main reason why I'm skeptical that this was a missile/rocket by the IDF. Or it was a huge malfunction and they're covering their rear end.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:37
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NovemberMike posted:Jesus, that article says 1000 people were camped out in the courtyard? No wonder it was so deadly. I'm trying to avoid seeing the aftermath as much as possible, but what little I saw was about as bad as these things get. A bunch of people were densely packed in an area and not taking shelter in any way and were hit by some significant explosion. you can see the remnants of where families had been camping out in the sfw aftermath pictures, eg the backpacks and stuff spread throughout the courtyard and the rugs and other ground coverings and piled up mattresses still present in the parts of the parking lot that didn't burn up. even setting aside the 'who did it' question, what happened there was really, really bad and basically a worst case scenario Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 01:37
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i fly airplanes posted:A lot of OSINT and reporting on the hospital showing it clearly wasn't the target: Even if what is inconclusive? If the purpose of the attack was to kill human beings that they knew were surrounding the building then they wouldn't need to destroy the building. The article clearly states that their own findings are inconclusive. A PoliSci associate professor says it was rocket fuel. What the gently caress does he know? A Bronk agrees it might have been caused by rocket fuel. Not conclusive by any stretch of the imagination. An employee of a risk assessment company says it wasn't a Hellfire missile. Alright. That does not address literally any other possibility. Is this supposed to be a considered, serious report? Am I supposed to pretend like this is meaningful in any way? This post reads like an extremely transparent attempt to just state conclusions without evidence or even an argument.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:40
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Remember how there was earlier talk about another strike on a UN school today? Unfortunately, that does indeed seem to have happened - MEE is running with the story. https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1714762196675150162?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q
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Oct 19, 2023 01:45
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Yeah they uh, probably shouldn't be considered experts in the question if their field has nothing to do with the question at hand. That article is a more or less "We asked these random people what they thought. Their answers may surprise you!" bit.
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Oct 19, 2023 01:52
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Kalit posted:TBH, as depressing as it is, this is the main reason why I'm skeptical that this was a missile/rocket by the IDF. Or it was a huge malfunction and they're covering their rear end. The problem I have with this line of thinking is the assumption that destroying the structure of the building would be the only purpose. The various guided weapons we know they have can be targeted at vehicles and open areas just fine and there's plenty of potential valid reasons to do so, from your target just being in an open area to not wanting a city you're trying to take collapsing on your troops unpredictably. What is useful to vital in close air support can be just as useful to not leave a gigantic crater where a hospital should be while still rendering it functionally useless and/or run up that WHO number.
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Oct 19, 2023 02:04
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Foxrunsecurity posted:The problem I have with this line of thinking is the assumption that destroying the structure of the building would be the only purpose. The various guided weapons we know they have can be targeted at vehicles and open areas just fine and there's plenty of potential valid reasons to do so, from your target just being in an open area to not wanting a city you're trying to take collapsing on your troops unpredictably. What is useful to vital in close air support can be just as useful to not leave a gigantic crater where a hospital should be while still rendering it functionally useless and/or run up that WHO number. So, if we assume this strike was intentional by the IDF and the hospital was not the target, what would be the point in this target? And how is it more desirable than other potential targets in all of Gaza that the IDF haven't struck?
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Oct 19, 2023 02:11
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Foxrunsecurity posted:The problem I have with this line of thinking is the assumption that destroying the structure of the building would be the only purpose. The various guided weapons we know they have can be targeted at vehicles and open areas just fine and there's plenty of potential valid reasons to do so, from your target just being in an open area to not wanting a city you're trying to take collapsing on your troops unpredictably. What is useful to vital in close air support can be just as useful to not leave a gigantic crater where a hospital should be while still rendering it functionally useless and/or run up that WHO number. One of the posted and then later deleted tweets from earlier today was the IOF claiming credit for striking the car park but not the hospital I can see why they would strike the car park, in the sense that a lot of vehicles were there, and a lot of individuals were camped out there and milling about. If you were some Israeli pilot or drone operator on a bombing run it might have looked like a tremendous target of opportunity, if you thought they were soldiers rather than civilians. If you look back at drone footage of similar incidents from Iraq/Afghanistan a lot of US violence inflicted on civilians over the years seems to have been motivated on similar grounds. I don't think they get a lot of context through those cameras, which is one of the many reasons I'm personally opposed to this kind of military action in the first place. Whatever landed in that courtyard had enough explosive force to flip cars and detonate the gas tanks of about a dozen vehicles or more well outside of the point it "landed" (assuming it landed at all and didn't air burst) - it seems very much to me like someone intended to hit the center of a crowded car park to maximize damage, rather than a misfired partially exploded rocket randomly tumbling into the worst possible place on earth for it to be Kalit posted:So, if we assume this strike was intentional by the IDF and the hospital was not the target, what would be the point in this target? And how is it more desirable than other potential targets in all of Gaza that the IDF haven't struck? To kill 500 people that someone thought were soldiers camped out next to the vehicles someone thought were technicals Engorged Pedipalps fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 02:20
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Kalit posted:So, if we assume this strike was intentional by the IDF and the hospital was not the target, what would be the point in this target? And how is it more desirable than other potential targets in all of Gaza that the IDF haven't struck? If they're trying to get people to leave the hospital but don't want to risk collapsing it, targeting the hospital grounds might be a next step. If this were the case, and there were more people than they expected, I would expect it to play out as we saw: Take credit, then backpedal when the body count was announced. This is based on what has been said by administrators, that the hospital was already targeted and received phone calls telling them to evacuate.
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Oct 19, 2023 02:26
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Foxrunsecurity posted:The problem I have with this line of thinking is the assumption that destroying the structure of the building would be the only purpose. The various guided weapons we know they have can be targeted at vehicles and open areas just fine and there's plenty of potential valid reasons to do so, from your target just being in an open area to not wanting a city you're trying to take collapsing on your troops unpredictably. What is useful to vital in close air support can be just as useful to not leave a gigantic crater where a hospital should be while still rendering it functionally useless and/or run up that WHO number. Certainly if you go back to the deleted initial post from Netanyahu's advisor about the attack the direct assertion was that Israel was striking a 'Hamas base' and implied that it was also a launch site in a hospital so the goal so the goal might've been more specific than the total destruction of the entire hospital complex. That the entire hospital was not destroyed isn't compelling evidence that rules out an israeli strike. And while the building was not destroyed, whatever hit the courtyard and parking lot was clearly very effective against people. eg  (btw I was unclear if he was really an advisor to netanyahu or if that was just internet rumor, but googling him turns up a bunch of articles over the last 5 years referring to him as an advisor to netanyahu so I guess that is indeed the case https://allisrael.com/this-is-a-war-between-good-and-evil-media-advisor-to-netanyahu-called-up-at-front-as-idf-prepares-for-invasion-of-gaza https://www.jns.org/the-rise-of-hananya-naftali-social-media-star-and-pro-israel-influencer/) Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 02:29
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Kalit posted:So, if we assume this strike was intentional by the IDF and the hospital was not the target, what would be the point in this target? And how is it more desirable than other potential targets in all of Gaza that the IDF haven't struck? Didn't they already strike it twice before and warn staff to evacuate because it was a target? Clearly they had some desire to strike it or they wouldn't have done any of that, right.
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Oct 19, 2023 02:29
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They are deliberately trying to kill or ethnically cleanse everyone in Gaza by depriving them of food, water, and medical care. I don't think one has to wonder why they might target a hospital any more than "because it's there."
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Oct 19, 2023 02:31
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I mean, yeah, Dad, it looks pretty bad. My room smells like smoke and you caught me with a pack the other day, and yes there's butts from that same brand on the carpet, but I swear to god, a crazy person broke in and smoked the cigarettes that totally weren't mine -- I don't even smoke, I'd never smoke -- in my room. There was a bombing of a hospital that Israel specifically warned would be bombed, by them. In what farcical, stupid universe are we supposed to believe this was a completely unrelated incident?
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Oct 19, 2023 02:37
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 02:39
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PT6A posted:I mean, yeah, Dad, it looks pretty bad. My room smells like smoke and you caught me with a pack the other day, and yes there's butts from that same brand on the carpet, but I swear to god, a crazy person broke in and smoked the cigarettes that totally weren't mine -- I don't even smoke, I'd never smoke -- in my room. The universe where your world view literally will not allow you to accept occam's razor here, basically
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Oct 19, 2023 02:40
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/state-department-resignation-gaza_n_65306079e4b00565b622b1fb Guy that was part of the State Department that sells arms just resigned.
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Oct 19, 2023 02:41
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mannerup posted:mentioned this on the last page but is he currently a member of the government in any official capacity? I see him being cited as a former digital media officer of Netanyahu and can't find anything on his current status. He appears to be just some state sponsored social media influencer dipshit, not some kind of Netanyahu confidant. googling him turned up news articles from progressively over the last 5 years referring to him as both a deputy media advisor and later as a media advisor to Netanyahu. last articles I saw were from this year and last year so it doesn't appear to have been some brief, short-term thing. the bio of him that I linked above mentions that when he got in touch with bibi's staff about working for them they'd already floated the idea of bringing him on board.
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Oct 19, 2023 02:45
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