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Could the endgame credibly be that Israel retains occupation over the north part of the Gaza strip, so what we're about to see is the second ethnic cleansing of 2023? It makes a grim sort of logical sense as a punitive measure to Hamas and a bung to the settler-friendly Israeli right wing. That would go some way to explaining why the Israeli military seems to be gearing up for manpower-intensive and bloody street warfare rather than using airstrikes to delete key infrastructure, then calling it a day.
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Oct 19, 2023 19:41
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This MAY have been a missile launch failure ... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67144061 quote:Live footage from the Al-Jazeera media network aired at 18:59 local time showed a bright light rising in the skies above Gaza. It flashes twice before drastically changing direction, and it then explodes.
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Oct 19, 2023 19:48
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We contacted 20 groups that work either directly, or indirectly for the Pentagon. Their answers might surprise you! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 19, 2023 20:05
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VideoGameVet posted:This MAY have been a missile launch failure ... 19, 2023 18:57Reg Date: Aug 10, 2009 Wait a drat second. So ANOTHER hospital was blown up and there just so happened to be a rocket launch right before with yet another rocket making a weird U turn? Wtf?
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Oct 19, 2023 20:07
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https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1714968013068230783 Le Point, a french reporting agency is saying between 10 and 50 people were killed by the blast in the al-Ahli hospital. I'm not srue how credible they are, but this is the first reporting agency not citing numbers originating from Hamas affiliated orgs as far as I'm aware. In a translated quote it cites an anonymous French intelligence source that spoke to the AFP. quote:“There are not 200 or 500 deaths, but rather a few dozen, probably between 10 and 50,” the source told Agence France-Presse (AFP)
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Oct 19, 2023 20:09
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Terebus posted:https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1714968013068230783 Seems to be Some Anonymous Intel Guy versus a considerable number of eyewitnesses (some of them of considerable international repute like Ghassan) saying that nope, hundreds died. I'm not sure why we should pay much more attention to this than the long string of other counternarratives that have thus far demonstrated themselves to be flimsy as gently caress.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:18
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I mean if you wanted you could hop on twitter and see video footage of the aftermath with more than 10 dead bodies in frame at a given time. I wouldn't recommend it, though.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:23
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Al-Jazeera had their footage, which is what the IDF is saying proves an errant rocket, analysed and they say it shows that the rocket in question was successfully intercepted with the same visual pattern of destruction as other rockets. They also have footage, that the IDF excluded, of other Israeli strikes similar to the explosion confirmed to be at the hospital in the same area across the five minutes up to the hospital strike. https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1714984258358391057 The WHO said yesterday that the death count is 471, with 342 wounded. They have representatives on the ground. https://www.emro.who.int/images/stories/palestine/oPt-emegency-situation-report-issue_5.pdf
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Oct 19, 2023 20:26
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Terebus posted:https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1714968013068230783 Let Point is an actual media outlet not owned by any governments; their reporting on the conflict, at a glance, does appear slanted in Israel's favor.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:32
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Al-Jazeera had their footage, which is what the IDF is saying proves an errant rocket, analysed and they say it shows that the rocket in question was successfully intercepted with the same visual pattern of destruction as other rockets. They also have footage, that the IDF excluded, of other Israeli strikes similar to the explosion confirmed to be at the hospital in the same area across the five minutes up to the hospital strike. That seems dubious. One of the known cost-saving measures of the Iron Dome is that it doesn't intercept over Gaza because of the high failure rate of Gazan rockets in the launch phase.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:36
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NovemberMike posted:That seems dubious. One of the known cost-saving measures of the Iron Dome is that it doesn't intercept over Gaza because of the high failure rate of Gazan rockets in the launch phase. And yet their analysis video shows no less than four largely identical-looking interceptions during the period they were filming.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:39
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Endjinneer posted:Could the endgame credibly be that Israel retains occupation over the north part of the Gaza strip, so what we're about to see is the second ethnic cleansing of 2023? It makes a grim sort of logical sense as a punitive measure to Hamas and a bung to the settler-friendly Israeli right wing. The thing is that Israel bombards Gaza with a wave of airstrikes every couple of years, so it's not really all that effective at convincing the voters that the government is Doing Something about Hamas. If there's domestic political pressure to show a serious effort against Hamas, though, Israel needs to send in the ground troops. I can't imagine them staying for long, though. If they couldn't secure the heavily defended and monitored border wall they've been working on for more than a decade and a half, there's simply no way they could expect to keep the troops reasonably safe in a long-term occupation of northern Gaza.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:42
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punishedkissinger posted:the president if the united states also said he saw them, so there's that. His aides clarified within 24 hours of this that he had not seen any actual evidence of beheaded babies. NovemberMike posted:That seems dubious. One of the known cost-saving measures of the Iron Dome is that it doesn't intercept over Gaza because of the high failure rate of Gazan rockets in the launch phase. Seems to me that they would turn it on if they were conducting military operations in and immediately around Gaza for extra protection of troops in close positions to the strip Of course you wouldn't have it on over Gaza during peacetime but it seems like you'd want to maximize coverage during an active conflict Engorged Pedipalps fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 20:43
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punishedkissinger posted:the president if the united states also said he saw them, so there's that. The President of the United States is a senile dickhead.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:46
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Darth Walrus posted:And yet their analysis video shows no less than four largely identical-looking interceptions during the period they were filming.  This is a long exposure of Iron Dome interceptors. The curvy path is the interceptor, you can see it's bright and on a curvy path because it has to burn to change directions and hit the intercept target. In their video I don't see evidence of these missiles. If you see it let me know the timestamp. Engorged Pedipalps posted:Seems to me that they would turn it on if they were conducting military operations in and immediately around Gaza for extra protection of troops in close positions to the strip It's just not how Iron Dome works. The system calculates the peak of the trajectory of the rocket and tries to intercept there. It just doesn't intercept in the launch phase.
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Oct 19, 2023 20:49
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NovemberMike posted:
Those launches all look like they're at the top of their arc when they pop though And the reason you're not seeing those trails is because you're not looking at a long exposure image. There's also about a tenth as much light in the sky given that there's no power in Gaza right now
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Oct 19, 2023 21:00
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Engorged Pedipalps posted:Those launches all look like they're at the top of their arc when they pop though https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSCWvOn42HI This is what they look like in a video. The bright things flying around the sky are the Tamir interceptors from Iron Dome. You can't see the rockets because they've stopped burning fuel at that point. Where in the Al Jazeera video do we see bright guided missiles from Israel?
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Oct 19, 2023 21:07
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Also Israel's claims would require an intact or mostly intact rocket and the rocket clearly disintegrates in the footage. Even if one were to grant it wasn't intercepted how does a bunch of shrapnel gel with the munition striking the hospital with the sound and force it does.
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Oct 19, 2023 21:08
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Main Paineframe posted:The thing is that Israel bombards Gaza with a wave of airstrikes every couple of years, so it's not really all that effective at convincing the voters that the government is Doing Something about Hamas. If there's domestic political pressure to show a serious effort against Hamas, though, Israel needs to send in the ground troops. I've not explained what I meant well enough, so here's an attempt to draw it.  Border walls have generally been a successful component of Israeli policy, but if defending them is becoming painful then it makes sense to reduce their length. Fighting a land war allows you to move the border and replace Palestinians with Israeli settlers. This fits with a long term pattern of Israel annexing territory from those that attack it, and the end game here is that the Gaza strip ceases to exist. It reminds me of an observation in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Yugoslavia that the international community generally looked the other way while ethnic cleansing was happening in the run up to the Dayton agreement because it made ethnic divisions neater, and that made the borders easier to agree on.
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Oct 19, 2023 21:19
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Edit: Actually I don't want to keep an argument going that is essentially a zaprudering of missile footage so hopefully nobody quoted this and we can all move on
Engorged Pedipalps fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Oct 19, 2023 |
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Oct 19, 2023 21:21
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NovemberMike posted:
Unless your position is that the rockets climbing out of Gaza hit some sort of draw-distance barrier and flashed out of existence, I'm not sure what your argument is. At 1:53 in the video, after their own motors have burnt out and gone dark, they are intercepted by the Iron Dome. It is quite clear both from watching and from listening that that is what is happening.
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Oct 19, 2023 21:24
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Endjinneer posted:I've not explained what I meant well enough, so here's an attempt to draw it. Earlier today: https://twitter.com/davidrkadler/status/1715024208491676144 I don't see a full link to the transcript but it appears to be a direct quote from the Israeli Foreign Minister in an interview with this right-wing radio station. https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1714575523605545299
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Oct 19, 2023 21:31
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something i hadn't seen posted in all the back and forth on the hospital, apologies if it's a repost. settlers in the west bank are taking the opportunity to step up their ongoing campaign of violence against their palestinian neighbors. not really surprising given that settlers were known to kill before the incursion from gaza. it is a salient reminder that hamas is not the root cause of the conflict, and when it comes to international condemnation some killings of civilians in their residence seem to be more evil than othersquote:Ibrahim Wadi, 62, and his son Ahmad, 24, were on their way to a funeral for four Palestinians shot dead by Israeli settlers in their occupied West Bank community, when their car came under attack.
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Oct 19, 2023 21:42
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As if there was any doubt this was the true goal (annexing northern gaza)
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Oct 19, 2023 21:43
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Urethane posted:Earlier today: That will certainly lead to peace! What a wonderful and not at all horrific thing to say!
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Oct 19, 2023 21:47
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Nail Rat posted:As if there was any doubt this was the true goal (annexing northern gaza) I think the true goal was retaliation for the 1,400 dead Israelis. They weren't storming into Gaza before that.
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Oct 19, 2023 21:48
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So apparently Biden is going to divert artillery shells from a war to prevent genocide to a war of genocide https://www.axios.com/2023/10/19/us-israel-artillery-shells-ukraine-weapons-gaza
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Oct 19, 2023 21:54
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This is concerning. After Houthi rebels fired missiles in a "northernly direction" and were intercepted/shot down by US Navy, Iran is now moving around its strategic-class ballistic missile launchers. This is unusual as those are typically only seen by the public at parades and exhibitions. No word yet if Iran is going to enter the fight or why they are showing off their ballistic missiles, but given the US Navy incident a few hours ago, it's hard to think they aren't related. It should be noted that the Houthis were NOT firing at the US ship, it was just able to intercept them and shoot them down. It wasn't just missiles either, there were Iranian drones involved (my guess would be Shaheds) https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/is...d3AsBC0Fl8lBAa2 The only response by the United States to this so far has been an extremely ominous sounding quote:The U.S. Department of Defense has stated that any kind of Response to the Cruise Missile and Drone launches last night by the Houthis in Yemen and the Attack on Al-Asad Airbase will come at a “Time and Manner of our Choosing.”
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Oct 19, 2023 22:01
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So if the Houthis weren't firing those missiles at the US ship, then I wonder what they were firing them at?
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Oct 19, 2023 22:04
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HonorableTB posted:The only response by the United States to this so far has been an extremely ominous sounding don't get too clancychat TB, they often say poo poo like that and it amounts to "we can do what we want (but aren't doing anything right now (which does not guarantee that it will remain nothing))"  e: and does not rule out that said manner of response is diplomaticsimilarly for Iran moves. I mean, it is concerning but I would expect anyone in the region to be increasing their readiness right now. small comfort if it actually does flare up into involving other powers like Iran in open fighting obviously, but it's not a guarantee that that will happen.
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Oct 19, 2023 22:10
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tiaz posted:don't get too clancychat TB, they often say poo poo like that and it amounts to "we can do what we want (but aren't doing anything right now (which does not guarantee that it will remain nothing))" At the other end of that spectrum we're assassinating their leaders...
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Oct 19, 2023 22:14
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I was driving home about 30 minutes ago and the BBC was interviewing an Israeli spokesman (XM Satellite Radio). The spokesman said that Israel allowed 6 fuel trucks into Gaza yesterday so the hospitals could have power, but Hamas stole the fuel. None of this surprises me, but I'm wondering if anyone else has heard or read about this?
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Oct 19, 2023 22:14
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Charliegrs posted:So if the Houthis weren't firing those missiles at the US ship, then I wonder what they were firing them at? Heading north up the Red Sea…. from Yemen…. *checks map* Hmm, no obvious targets that I can see!
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Oct 19, 2023 22:15
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tiaz posted:don't get too clancychat TB, they often say poo poo like that and it amounts to "we can do what we want (but aren't doing anything right now (which does not guarantee that it will remain nothing))" I don't think this is going to result in any kind of major American military action, but when the world's largest military shoots down your missiles and drones and then tells you a response will be coming and you have no idea when or where it will be, or WHAT it would be, I'd be feeling pretty nervous about now if I was a Houthi fighter. I just can't buy that it's a coincidence given how the regional powers feel about each other that an Iranian proxy group is firing missiles without Iranian approval, tacit or not. I do think Iran moving their ballistic missiles around is just them puffing their chests out, but what I can't really figure out is who that message is meant to be delivered to. Israel, I guess? But it's hard to imagine either Israel or the US getting intimidated by something like that from a non-nuclear power. So I guess my question is, what the hell is Iran doing and for whose benefit?
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Oct 19, 2023 22:17
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Main Paineframe posted:The thing is that Israel bombards Gaza with a wave of airstrikes every couple of years, so it's not really all that effective at convincing the voters that the government is Doing Something about Hamas. If there's domestic political pressure to show a serious effort against Hamas, though, Israel needs to send in the ground troops. This, pretty much. At the end of the day any foreign/war policy the Israeli government has is just a reflection of short sighted domestic policies. Which is why, even if it makes no tactical and strategic sense, they will send troops into Gaza to show that This Time It's Different. They can post pictures of dead Hamas militants and maybe some alive hostages. Then after a while enough Israeli soldiers will die and the bloodlust will die down a bit so they can back out, maybe carving out some "security zone", with enough public support. With any luck this will last enougg time that people will forget who was in charge when this poo poo happened and won't kick them out of office. (imo)
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Oct 19, 2023 22:20
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Charliegrs posted:So apparently Biden is going to divert artillery shells from a war to prevent genocide to a war of genocide Maybe you should be more credulous about the stated intentions of our leaders when they manufacture consent for a war going forward The United States has a long history of ignoring genocides and usually it's only a problem for us when we need a pretense to build support for a war for different reasons. The only time I can think of where we actually tried to prevent a genocide in progress was desert storm and I'm sure there was a laundry list of other reasons we actually sought out that conflict, especially since we've basically abandoned the kurds at this point
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Oct 19, 2023 22:20
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Unless your position is that the rockets climbing out of Gaza hit some sort of draw-distance barrier and flashed out of existence, I'm not sure what your argument is. At 1:53 in the video, after their own motors have burnt out and gone dark, they are intercepted by the Iron Dome. It is quite clear both from watching and from listening that that is what is happening. Jesus Christ this isn't complicated. Give me a timestamp and a video where you see the Tamir interceptors from the Iron Dome.
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Oct 19, 2023 22:20
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NovemberMike posted:So the argument is that news orgs have lovely headlines? That's a serious problem but the actual articles that are linked don't claim 40 babies beheaded. In a forum that has rules regarding only reading the headline, I think we have already reach a consesus that headlines help shape narratives. Here is beloved political commentator Chris Cillizza, commenting on a American Press Institute study on the subject. Chris Cillizza posted:So, roughly six in 10 people acknowledge that they have done nothing more than read news headlines in the past week. And, in truth, that number is almost certainly higher than that, since plenty of people won't want to admit to just being headline-gazers but, in fact, are.
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Oct 19, 2023 22:24
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Bel Shazar posted:At the other end of that spectrum we're assassinating their leaders... like, recently, connected to this conflict? because I'm not trying to relitigate Suleimani here, the US obviously has attacked Iran in the past, but I'm fairly confident has also made statements like the one I'm talking about and then not done anything militarily. HonorableTB posted:I don't think this is going to result in any kind of major American military action, but when the world's largest military shoots down your missiles and drones and then tells you a response will be coming and you have no idea when or where it will be, or WHAT it would be, I'd be feeling pretty nervous about now if I was a Houthi fighter. I just can't buy that it's a coincidence given how the regional powers feel about each other that an Iranian proxy group is firing missiles without Iranian approval, tacit or not. Well yeah, that's the point of making an ambiguous maybe-threat like that. I'm too ignorant about the region to speculate about what Iran is trying to achieve though. 
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Oct 19, 2023 22:24
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daslog posted:I was driving home about 30 minutes ago and the BBC was interviewing an Israeli spokesman (XM Satellite Radio). The spokesman said that Israel allowed 6 fuel trucks into Gaza yesterday so the hospitals could have power, but Hamas stole the fuel. None of this surprises me, but I'm wondering if anyone else has heard or read about this? Got any proof? Or do you just want to debate and discuss a rumor?
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Oct 19, 2023 22:26
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