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i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

engaged in some bullshit on a small local reddit (in northern colorado mind you) after munition shells with a serial number to a factory nearby were posted.

lots of posters trying to normalize the bombing of civilians, but was very very surprised to find even more coming to the defense and down voting the vampires, which made me :shobon: a bit.

pointing out that they’re punishing people by killing children for living next door to terrorists in response to “Hamas operates from these peoples neighborhoods” is an effective point

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010


it's ok, ive gotten word that the orphans have safely been relocated to Kashmir

Hammerstein
May 6, 2005

YOU DON'T KNOW A DAMN THING ABOUT RACING !
Got Greta's Octopuses today and am now busy indoctrinating them with proper literature.

The blue one is Willi and the pink one is Marlene. Both hate fascists and war criminals.



Willi looks a little ruffled, but that's cause he's currently reading about the cruelty of the US sanctions in Von Sponeck's book.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

turns out that al-saqr's description of middle eastern armies being absolutely incompetent at anything other than terrorizing helpless civilians also applies to the idf

gradenko_2000 posted:

reminder that Stockholm Syndrome was just a thing completely made up by some dude who didn't want to believe a hostage's account that her captors treated her humanely, so that's always what Stockholm Syndrome was and is used for.

the hostage in question was mostly pissed at the swedish government in general and the cops in particular because they literally told her that they didn't give a poo poo whether she lived or died, and the dude who coined the term was working for the cops and made the whole thing up as a whitewash for police callousness

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer

Mantis42 posted:

it's ok, ive gotten word that the orphans have safely been relocated to Kashmir

mashallah

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Death By The Blues posted:

Not sure how much you can trust the Middle East Institute but it goes into what I have heard from some Iranians

https://www.mei.edu/publications/obstacles-and-opportunities-closer-iranian-chinese-economic-cooperation

"In recent years, in part to counter the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., Iran has prioritized its foreign policy toward the East, principally Russia and China. Notably, the 25-year, $400 billion comprehensive cooperation agreement with China, which the two countries signed in March 2021, serves as a blueprint and vision for bilateral collaboration in areas such as oil, gas, petrochemicals, renewable energy, nuclear power, tourism, transit, trade, and railways. Nonetheless, this approach has thus far not resulted in a significant increase in Chinese investment in Iran. Furthermore, the agreement aligns with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves investing billions of dollars in infrastructure; China has repeatedly been accused of using the BRI to establish long-term influence and economic and security dominance over participating countries. So although Iranian officials have emphasized the importance of their relationship with Beijing, many Iranians are skeptical about the strategic nature of this partnership. Notably, the media in Iran repeatedly voiced criticism after President Ebrahim Raisi’s Feb. 14, 2023, summit in China. And Iranian international relations scholar Hassan Beheshtipour has pointed to Beijing’s stance on the Emirati-Iranian dispute over three islands in the Gulf as evidence that Iran’s relationship with China cannot be considered truly strategic or based on unqualified trust."

"China’s limited investment interest in Iran contrasts sharply with many of Iran’s regional neighbors. According to the Washington, D.C.-based American Enterprise Institute’s “China Global Investment Tracker,” China invested $618 million in projects in Iran from 2018 to 2022, mainly in the construction sector. This four-year period notably began with the Trump administration’s implementation of its “maximum pressure campaign” of sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, China invested $22.5 billion in Saudi Arabia, $13 billion in Iraq, $4.6 billion in Kuwait, $1.8 billion in Qatar, $19.3 billion in the United Arab Emirates, and $2.5 billion in Oman. Even China’s investment in Bahrain was more than twice that of Iran. In total, Chinese capital invested in Arab countries in the Persian Gulf was almost 72 times that of Iran from 2018 to 2022."

"Yet despite this clear growth in trade, especially when it comes to Chinese exports to Iran and purchases of Iranian oil, the same cannot be said for China’s investments in the Iranian economy, which have remained anemic, particularly in the critical energy sector. This has raised related questions about the nature of the broader Chinese-Iranian relationship and whether or not it can truly be considered “strategic.”

quote:

Founded in 1946, the Middle East Institute is the oldest Washington-based institution dedicated solely to the study of the Middle East. It is a non-partisan think tank providing expert policy analysis, educational and professional development services, and a hub for engaging with the region's arts and culture.

lol

anyway i found this (uk based) company registered by a guy who's based out of London - Riyadh and went to school in california:

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202310220074

quote:

It has only signed two investment agreements with Iran during 2013-2023, of which one of them was canceled in 2018, when the United States left the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran.

One of the deals was investing in Iran’s South Pars gas field’s phase 11, which the Chinese CNPC energy company had committed in 2016 to invest $600 million but dropped the project in 2018.

The second scheme was the Gohardasht Steel project, which Chinese MMC had signed an agreement in 2014 to invest $350 million.

In contrast, Chinese enterprises have secured sizable contracts for investment and development with other regional nations. For instance, they have inked agreements with Saudi Arabia totaling up to $52 billion, with over $13 billion allocated for investment contracts.

sounds like the author doesn't like that china abided by US sanctions and/or that KSA got more investment

crepeface has issued a correction as of 14:27 on Oct 24, 2023

Action Jacktion
Jun 3, 2003
Could it be?

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

BeanpolePeckerwood posted:

2023 american hegemony in loving shambles lol

About loving time.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
also im p sure that iran would kick the poo poo out of the us in a conventional war at this point, inshallah

mags
May 30, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Cerebral Bore posted:

also im p sure that iran would kick the poo poo out of the us in a conventional war at this point, inshallah

good

hadji murad
Apr 18, 2006
Timothy Snyder?

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp
it's a little early to be putting patties on the grill

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

Cerebral Bore posted:

also im p sure that iran would kick the poo poo out of the us in a conventional war at this point, inshallah

there was a simulation of a war with Iran in like 2000 and the results were that the US got completely owned until they kept tweaking the rules of the simulation to make the US win

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Quite a bit of Synder in fact...

Also, the Russians are building 2 more reactors in Iran and just shipped them a bunch of jet trainers.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 14:34 on Oct 24, 2023

F_Shit_Fitzgerald
Feb 2, 2017



spacemang_spliff posted:

there was a simulation of a war with Iran in like 2000 and the results were that the US got completely owned until they kept tweaking the rules of the simulation to make the US win

Kobayashi Maru.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
also it's hard to overstate how loving dumb israel has been wrt eagerly sprinting to the brink of kicking off a regional war just as its sugar daddy has pissed away all their money, but i guess fascist bloodlust trumps all rational considerations

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

gradenko_2000 posted:

reminder that Stockholm Syndrome was just a thing completely made up by some dude who didn't want to believe a hostage's account that her captors treated her humanely, so that's always what Stockholm Syndrome was and is used for.

Very specifically, the original case was a bank robbert turned multi day hostage situation in which the hostage taker treated the hostages well and the police, according to the hostages, acted incompetently and without regard for their safety.

Can't imagine that applying at all in the current situation.

Deadly Ham Sandwich
Aug 19, 2009
Smellrose
I'm surprised there isn't a IDF fund thread on the forums.

Chucat
Apr 14, 2006

spacemang_spliff posted:

there was a simulation of a war with Iran in like 2000 and the results were that the US got completely owned until they kept tweaking the rules of the simulation to make the US win

Was this the one where the Iranian team commander had all his transmissions done by motorbikes (so they couldn't be intercepted) but they also moved at 2000 mph?

I think it's Millennium Challenge? Where the Iranian Team guy got to write a lot of poo poo ragging on it.

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



Cerebral Bore posted:

also im p sure that iran would kick the poo poo out of the us in a conventional war at this point, inshallah

one (1) antiship missile with a good size payload getting past point defenses and sinking or even badly crippling one (1) carrier would be such a morale blow the US would lose their mind. given the how long Iran has had to game it out and how bellicose the US has been toward them they know this and have surely been working on the capacity to thwart, overwhelm and do just that

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Deadly Ham Sandwich posted:

I'm surprised there isn't a IDF fund thread on the forums.

There is on my facebook!

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Chucat posted:

Was this the one where the Iranian team commander had all his transmissions done by motorbikes (so they couldn't be intercepted) but they also moved at 2000 mph?

yeah the guy cheated because the simulation was rigged. fair's fair

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Cerebral Bore posted:

also it's hard to overstate how loving dumb israel has been wrt eagerly sprinting to the brink of kicking off a regional war just as its sugar daddy has pissed away all their money, but i guess fascist bloodlust trumps all rational considerations

That's exactly what it is, Israel is entirely reacting with fascist bloodlust. Within like a day they were bombing Hezbollah and Syria for no discernable reason. They've now resorted to bombing -yes, bombing - the West Bank, which has no Hamas presence. Israel is utterly hysterical and reacting like a feral monster.

The phrase in that thread I posted yesterday is apt: strategic paralysis. The US is in a similar position where they have no idea how to handle the situation.

VoicesCanBe has issued a correction as of 14:43 on Oct 24, 2023

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

Chucat posted:

Was this the one where the Iranian team commander had all his transmissions done by motorbikes (so they couldn't be intercepted) but they also moved at 2000 mph?

I think it's Millennium Challenge? Where the Iranian Team guy got to write a lot of poo poo ragging on it.

Iranian motorcycle technology is very advanced


but yeah it's the millennium challenge

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!

Al-Saqr posted:

I mean yeah americans have alot of engineers, spies, consultants, marketers, financiers, etc. in a ton of sectors it's where alot of people live and make their money, oh and all the soldiers too.

Alot of ppl with dual citizenship where it's allowed. Lebanese, Egyptian,etc I think. Also when you're old and Arab in the States you go back to live back with family while collecting social security.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

spacemang_spliff posted:

there was a simulation of a war with Iran in like 2000 and the results were that the US got completely owned until they kept tweaking the rules of the simulation to make the US win

iirc the guy playing iran was like “you can’t intercept my communications because i use teleporting motorcycles” lol

Honky Mao
Dec 26, 2012

China should give Hamas a navy via BRI

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp

spacemang_spliff posted:

there was a simulation of a war with Iran in like 2000 and the results were that the US got completely owned until they kept tweaking the rules of the simulation to make the US win

millenium challenge? van riper was hacking. also iirc a lot of that "just reset and refloat the ships" was so certain things could get practice even if they'd always get blown up right away in that scenario. they weren't changing the rules just because they didn't want to accept that a bunch of speed boats with ftl carrier pigeons sank their battleships.

Zodium posted:

iirc the guy playing iran was like “you can’t intercept my communications because i use teleporting motorcycles” lol

absolute respect for van riper's metagame though

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
Just saw this. This is from an Haaretz article

https://twitter.com/__mike91/status/1716474436595949644

E: Haaretz article here: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...af-7b5cf0210000

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

invading a very mountainous country that has an actual military seems like a bad idea for burgerland lets ask the taliban

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Well the smart thing would be to keep the battle group just on the maximum edge of possible contact so it can engage its fighters, but that said, the US Navy also sailed a destroyer right into the teeth of the Houthis, so who knows.

That said, I wouldn't overhype naval portion of it, as much as a carrier going down is a big event and everything but the US knows that as well.

On the other hand, I think 2k of marines and even if they are they are there for base or embassy security, it really isn't much. Also, I don't think the US or Israel really have an answer for Hezbollah in general, especially if most of Lebanon is either backing them or at least neutral. They can bomb infrastructure in Beirut but it isn't going to do much against Hezbollah itself and at a certain point even the Maronites aren't going to be charging into battle.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

looks like 99% military aged humans

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
also millenium challenge was 22 years ago before the iranians perfected Hezbullah-style warfare, built their tunnel cities, mass produced anti tank missiles and before they became a ballistic missile candy factory, theyre infinitely more dangerous than what that exercise assumes.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

Cuttlefush posted:

also Olsson wasn't a monster and it sounds like he ended up, uh, reverse stockholming? there are quotes from him about how his interactions with the hostages made him reconsider against murder/blaze of glory. also he then went on to live a normal sounded life and is retired in sweden. didnt know that

Wow it's almost like crooks can be rehabilitated if the system allows for it and not every confrontation has to end in a hail of bullets like Heat

*anxiously trying to tie my post back to Palestine like Flint in a Michael Moore movie* :sweatdrop:

Use of deadly force should be restrained with regards to Gaza as well!

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


HallelujahLee posted:

invading a very mountainous country that has an actual military seems like a bad idea for burgerland lets ask the taliban

about all the us could do to iran with conventional weapons would be to sit outside anti-ship missile range in the eastern mediterranean or the arabian sea and shoot cruise missiles for a day or two and then have to go back to port for more missiles because the navy phased out logistics in the 90s

Hammerstein
May 6, 2005

YOU DON'T KNOW A DAMN THING ABOUT RACING !

hadji murad posted:

Timothy Snyder?

Road to Unfreedom can be an interesting read, if you are mentally prepared and take everything with not just a grain, but a giant sack, of salt.

But Bloodlands and On Tyranny are good books, so I can't bring myself to wholly condemn the man, despite his later works.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Chucat posted:

Was this the one where the Iranian team commander had all his transmissions done by motorbikes (so they couldn't be intercepted) but they also moved at 2000 mph?

I think it's Millennium Challenge? Where the Iranian Team guy got to write a lot of poo poo ragging on it.

Zodium posted:

iirc the guy playing iran was like “you can’t intercept my communications because i use teleporting motorcycles” lol

again all the poo poo about Van Riper in the Millennium Challenge was about how he was cheating as an attempt to invalidate the result that he obtained, without making mention that the "blue" side he was fighting was also fighting with planes and ships and missiles that didn't exist and couldn't possibly exist either, like laser cannons and railguns and an F-35 that could fly

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

Hatebag posted:

about all the us could do to iran with conventional weapons would be to sit outside anti-ship missile range in the eastern mediterranean or the arabian sea and shoot cruise missiles for a day or two and then have to go back to port for more missiles because the navy phased out logistics in the 90s

yeah i just dont see them doing much iran has an actual air defense as well like beyond missiles and maybe some bombardment an actual land invasion sounds insane

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Bloodlands doesn't even include any Russian-language sources.

HallelujahLee posted:

yeah i just dont see them doing much iran has an actual air defense as well like beyond missiles and maybe some bombardment an actual land invasion sounds insane

Yeah, maybe they would go after some nuclear facilities (many of them are underground at this point) or some drone plants or something, but the US just doesn't have anything in the region to actually hammer a country the size of Iran especially if they have to deal with its AD. Iran also has the ability to respond.

Hell, I don't think Hezbollah has ever warmed up yet.

That said, just because something doesn't make any sense, doesn't mean someone isn't going to try it.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 14:54 on Oct 24, 2023

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VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Cerebral Bore posted:

also im p sure that iran would kick the poo poo out of the us in a conventional war at this point, inshallah

In a defensive war where the US has to enter and invade Iran, absolutely. And that's the only context where a war with Iran would take place. Iran would no doubt suffer a ton of casualties and a lot of damage, but so would the US.

And critically, the US public's tolerance for American troop casualties is basically nonexistent.

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