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Xalidur posted:Despite the House GOP circus and Trump being generally evil, a bunch of GE polling just came out that was either tied or with Trump ahead. I simply cannot comprehend the absolute madness, depravity, stupidity, or all three, that it would take to choose that outcome in 2024. And it's a coin flip that we might get it. People who still support trump are living in an entirely different world from you. They literally can't even comprehend your views. They're several bubbles removed from any sort of disagreement. A lot of them think Fox is too liberal and have moved onto wackier poo poo. The internet was a mistake.
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Oct 25, 2023 08:04
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mannerup posted:lmao the groveling did nothing for him except get his text messages publicly posted I understand that his voter base will likely never see this but how do you vote for someone like this?
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Oct 25, 2023 12:00
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FizFashizzle posted:I understand that his voter base will likely never see this but how do you vote for someone like this? There's an (R) next to his name on the ballot, they make it really easy for you
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Oct 25, 2023 12:23
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FizFashizzle posted:I understand that his voter base will likely never see this but how do you vote for someone like this? What else are they going to do, vote for baby raping and puppy blood drinking on the other team? Why I saw on face book they even have Jewish space lasers!
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Oct 25, 2023 12:28
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bird food bathtub posted:What else are they going to do, vote for baby raping and puppy blood drinking on the other team? Why I saw on face book they even have Jewish space lasers! I mean, you would think that having space lasers would be a good incentive to vote for them, so they don't blow up MY house with said laser, but what do I know?
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Oct 25, 2023 13:31
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bird food bathtub posted:What else are they going to do, vote for baby raping and puppy blood drinking on the other team? Why I saw on face book they even have Jewish space lasers! It was probably an ad for this book that came out last month. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/733925/jewish-space-lasers-by-mike-rothschild/ 
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Oct 25, 2023 14:00
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The Federal Reserve sticking with high interest rates is going to help Trump a lot. I'm not convinced that the kind of inflation we're seeing is going to be fixed by trying to do another Volcker shock and you have a range of voters being hurt by the effects (whether it's due to it being harder to do anything using credit, harder to sell your home or make mortgage payments, the drag on stocks, or people losing jobs). If we do reach the supposed goal of 2% inflation (which I'm not sure is really a realistic thing), I don't think any of us are going to like how we got there.
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Oct 25, 2023 14:15
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It’s really not unless the economy collapses entirely into its own rear end in a top hat. People keep trotting out election ‘truisms’ that don’t hold up when people actually hit the polls.
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Oct 25, 2023 14:22
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i am a moron posted:It’s really not unless the economy collapses entirely into its own rear end in a top hat. People keep trotting out election ‘truisms’ that don’t hold up when people actually hit the polls. People are economically hurting and Biden, for better or worse, is the guy in the Oval Office so he is going to get the blame from many voters. How much of a boost that will the GOP despite the GOP taking on a lot of unpopular social and economic positions is up for debate, sure. I just think the effects of higher interest rates are unfortunately not a good thing for a Democratic Party that usually gets its best results by concentrating on "checkbook" issues for working people. Polling isn't an exact science, especially in an age where no one wants to pick up their phone, but there seems to be a noticeable level of dissatisfaction in all the general election polling right now and that usually helps the challenger and not the incumbent.
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Oct 25, 2023 14:26
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Eric Cantonese posted:People are economically hurting and Biden, for better or worse, is the guy in the Oval Office so he is going to get the blame from many voters. Sure. All of that goes out the window if it's Trump as the Republican nominee though. People still hate that dude.
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Oct 25, 2023 14:31
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You don’t even need to go that far back in history to see that it doesn’t really matter - Republicans held the White House from 80-92 and Obama got a second term despite everything that happened while he was president the first term. ‘The economy’ is almost always a facile, narrative driven way to predict polling behavior. It’s divorced from both historical results and current voting trendlines. I think it’s also way, way too much of an oversimplification of American voters understanding of how our country and the world functions.
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Oct 25, 2023 14:44
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BiggerBoat posted:It's maddening to me because "fixing" social security is essentially as simple as eliminating the cap. Defense spending is equally frustrating because the entire model is centered around building things that murder people and destroy things and, once their built, someone needs to find a use for them. Hell, we've had things resembling clearance sales on the arms we manufacture basically because they sit around gathering dust otherwise. Your general points are correct, but two important asterisks: 1) Just lifting the cap on social security taxes alone won't entirely fix the funding issue. It will fix about 2/3 of it. You will still need to reduce benefits or increase the actual rate a little (or dramatically increase the number of working people via immigration because the unemployment rate is so low right now that you can't feasibly introduce 10% more people into the workforce). 2) The military is basically a real estate and welfare program now. Arms sales and new procurements are only about 20% of the defense budget. That's still in the range of $150 billion per year, so there is fat to cut there, but over half of all defense spending goes to costs associated with troops, real estate, and maintenance. The problem is that forced retirements, reducing the size of the military, kicking people out of the military, reducing salaries and benefits for the military, and closing military bases are far and away the least popular ways to cut military spending. If you want dramatic military spending cuts, then those are the areas you have to target. The last Presidents to propose that were George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Clinton had a drawdown plan and Bush had his "peace dividend" plan, but both of them ended up thrown out the window and reversed after 9/11. Obama came the closest with his proposal that defense spending only grow by slightly less than an inflation for 10 years. Even Bernie Sanders' defense spending plan when he ran for President only cut about 10% because he wouldn't commit to cutting real estate or personnel costs.
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Oct 25, 2023 15:11
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i am a moron posted:You don’t even need to go that far back in history to see that it doesn’t really matter - Republicans held the White House from 80-92 and Obama got a second term despite everything that happened while he was president the first term. ‘The economy’ is almost always a facile, narrative driven way to predict polling behavior. It’s divorced from both historical results and current voting trendlines. I think it’s also way, way too much of an oversimplification of American voters understanding of how our country and the world functions. Both of your examples kind of support the point of the economy mattering. Reagan was lucky to survive the economic contraction early in his term (1980 to 1982) and Democrats gained seats in the 1982 midterms. The US recovered from the recession by 1984 and was expanding again. In fact, the next recession didn't happen until... 1992 and that hurt Bush and helped Clinton. Likewise, the financial crisis already commenced under George W. Bush. Obama tried, but his policies did not fix the hurt enough and the Democrats got stomped in 2010. The technical lowpoint of the recession was in late 2009 and there was enough time and ensuing recovery after the midterms, that Obama was ultimately able to recover by 2012. "The economy" does not explain everything (and I was not saying it does), but the economic welfare of voters at any given point does have an effect and I would not just wave away how that affects voter behavior and preferences. Trump's a special case, sure, but I think it's up for debate on whether he is so poisonous that his campaign is not going to be able to benefit if the economy keeps getting worse under Biden for working Americans. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Oct 25, 2023 |
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Oct 25, 2023 15:22
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Eric Cantonese posted:Both of your examples kind of support the point of the economy mattering. Reagan was lucky to survive the economic contraction early in his term (1980 to 1982) and Democrats gained seats in the 1982 midterms. The US recovered from the recession by 1984 and was expanding again. In fact, the next recession didn't happen until... 1992 and that hurt Bush and helped Clinton. The economy is a tough thing though because yes inflation is high and interest rates are high but unemployment's is the lowest it's been in a long time. Wages are going up too. The economy is growing. This isn't to say it's growing evenly or that people aren't feeling the pinch but it's more complicated than inflation is bad, therefore Biden and the economy is bad.
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Oct 25, 2023 15:25
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Eric Cantonese posted:Both of your examples kind of support the point of the economy mattering. Reagan was lucky to survive the economic contraction early in his term (1980 to 1982) and Democrats gained seats in the 1982 midterms. The US recovered from the recession by 1984 and was expanding again. In fact, the next recession didn't happen until... 1992 and that hurt Bush and helped Clinton. And carter had the gas crisis in 1979
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Oct 25, 2023 15:25
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Eric Cantonese posted:Both of your examples kind of support the point of the economy mattering. Reagan was lucky to survive the economic contraction early in his term (1980 to 1982) and Democrats gained seats in the 1982 midterms. The US recovered from the recession by 1984 and was expanding again. In fact, the next recession didn't happen until... 1992 and that hurt Bush and helped Clinton. I’m not waving it away I just think any statement I’ve read on this or the last page about it isn’t detailed enough to engage with. It’s a facile analysis of something very complex. Similarly you’re making statements about things being worse for working Americans, yet that is not what all the data is saying. It’s a narrative until you start making an actual case this is happening and start hazarding educated guesses at poll behavior. Otherwise it might as well be an opinion piece written by a conservative think tank on cnn.com.
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Oct 25, 2023 15:43
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Nervous posted:It was probably an ad for this book that came out last month. The only real Jewish conspiracy is trying to convince me that the plural of Rothschild isn't Rothschildren. I'm on to you, Mike (if that's even your real name)!
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Oct 25, 2023 15:46
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The DNC hasn't officially taken any action yet, but it seems like this is pretty much confirmation that New Hampshire's refusal to change their date is going to result in them losing their delegates. Iowa complied with the reform requests to basically turn the caucus into a primary with ranked choice voting (allow mail-in voting, allow voting all day, and you don't have to wait 3 hours or stay for the entire caucus duration to vote), but NH has refused to move its primary citing a state law that requires them to be the first primary state of an election cycle. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1717134040027873528 quote:Biden will not be on the New Hampshire primary ballot this election
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Oct 25, 2023 15:56
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Good. The current primary system is busted. This will make it a tiny bit better
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Oct 25, 2023 16:01
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Jesus III posted:Good. The current primary system is busted. This will make it a tiny bit better The primary system has already been reformed, New Hampshire is just refusing to go along with the reforms Also I would consider "sent out guidance Tuesday advising Democratic campaigns to refrain from filing to be on the primary ballot in New Hampshire" to be the DNC taking action, even if it's still short of officially announcing the results of the NH primary will be ignored
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Oct 25, 2023 16:03
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The result of New Hampshire has always been more about narratives, momentum and expectations than their small amount of actual delegates, so there's an argument to be made to keep the path and see what happens
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Oct 25, 2023 16:19
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Xalidur posted:Despite the House GOP circus and Trump being generally evil, a bunch of GE polling just came out that was either tied or with Trump ahead. I simply cannot comprehend the absolute madness, depravity, stupidity, or all three, that it would take to choose that outcome in 2024. And it's a coin flip that we might get it. General Election polls are basically meaningless right now. Not only hasn't there been a single primary vote taken yet this season, but also you have to remember that we don't elect the President via popular vote.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:21
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Eric Cantonese posted:The Federal Reserve sticking with high interest rates is going to help Trump a lot. I'm not convinced that the kind of inflation we're seeing is going to be fixed by trying to do another Volcker shock https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1712494317024026761 Medium-term forecasts show the rate returning to its 21st century average and interest rates, eventually, also falling. Global inflation is falling (and the US has been performing better than global inflation pretty much this whole time.) Now, it’s extremely understandable that people are still upset because prices don’t fall, and people want them to fall, because they’re high. But the lost ground has to be made up through wage growth, which takes some time. Every month that goes by between now and Nov 24 is likely to see an improvement in people’s feelings about inflation (barring the usual gas price rage.) I think given the actual CPI numbers Powell might be actually kind of hoping for a recession in continuing to raise rates, and I think Biden should absolutely fire him. But he might be done raising rates - it’s thought that if anything there will be one more. Many Fed governors don’t want increase rates again at all. October CPI report comes out on Nov 14, it’s almost guaranteed to be below 3% YOY (Sept and Aug were a little elevated because of a gas price spike that has subsided.)
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Oct 25, 2023 16:23
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There is also a theory that public opinion tracks with three year inflation more than YOY, and that figure has just tipped into falling in recent weeks. (YOY has been falling for about a year.)
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Oct 25, 2023 16:26
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Misunderstood posted:
Pay attention to the PCE if you want to know what Powell might be looking at. That is what the official inflation target is based on, not CPI.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:26
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I believe Johnson will win on first gavel, but Republican speakers have horrible workplace environments.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:27
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Misunderstood posted:Inflation has pretty much fallen, and there is no indication in the forecast of anything that would push it back up. No Volker shock required. That doesn't really change the political impact of the perception, though. You mention it, but kind of glaze over that this is the primary problem: quote:it’s extremely understandable that people are still upset because prices don’t fall, and people want them to fall, because they’re high. But the lost ground has to be made up through wage growth, which takes some time. Every month that goes by between now and Nov 24 is likely to see an improvement in people’s feelings about inflation (barring the usual gas price rage.) Even if real wage gains are back on track and inflation is falling, it doesn't really matter if people still feel like prices are too high and won't come down. Even in good economic times, people still do the "gas used to be 89 cents per gallon and it only cost a nickel to see a movie!" routine. In a situation where real wages have roughly gotten to where they would been without Covid, it is still going to "feel" worse to get a paycheck for $2,000 and spend $1,500 on food and rent than it feels to get a paycheck for $1,000 and spent $800 on rent - even though you are objectively better off in the first scenario. You'd need really significant wage growth in a short period of time or significant deflation to change that perception in just a few months. It took about 5 years after inflation started falling in the 70's for people to "feel" like it was getting better, even though it was technically better than before about 3 years in. In the short term, I think gas station signs and grocery store prices are going to have more of a political impact that real wage gains or inflation numbers. The U.S. is doing much better than Europe and other major areas in regards to real wages and inflation, but American voters don't live in Europe and aren't grading on that scale. Avoiding a huge depression and getting us back to where we would be without covid are big successes, but it's not entirely unreasonable for people to remember that things were bad a few years ago and not be impressed by getting everyone back to 5 out of 10. Going from -8 out of 10 to 5 out of 10 feels a lot worse than just staying at 5 the whole time, even though the first one is objectively much more improvement. People don't live in averages.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:42
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Misunderstood posted:Inflation has pretty much fallen, and there is no indication in the forecast of anything that would push it back up. No Volker shock required. Ex -food -shelter -energy -cars lol. Considering only the rate of inflation and not area under the curve.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:48
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The DNC hasn't officially taken any action yet, but it seems like this is pretty much confirmation that New Hampshire's refusal to change their date is going to result in them losing their delegates. As someone who spent the first 22 years of his life in New Hampshire, it being the first primary is pretty baked into our state's culture, and even many people who don't even vote in the general election usually partake in it, and the DNC loving with this to reward a deep red state like South Carolina, which is even less reflective of the democratic base than NH, is still the stupidest move the DNC has done in the last decade. It is legitimately a factor that could push NH to vote in a republican representatives, Trump for president, or, if they continue this in future years, republican senators.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:49
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Eric Cantonese posted:Polling isn't an exact science, especially in an age where no one wants to pick up their phone, but there seems to be a noticeable level of dissatisfaction in all the general election polling right now and that usually helps the challenger and not the incumbent. In addition to people loathing Trump and a lot of these truisms being negated by this hatred, I'd argue that Trump is as much of an incumbent as Biden. He's a rare former president running for reelection. People know how he governs. They remember his neverending daily dramas. This has been true from the beginning, and we will all be reminded of his dumb poo poo with all of these upcoming trials during election season. Trump has been losing his and Republican elections since the special elections of 2017, including most recently in 2022 (which I argue was a loss). Democrats are swinging by 11 points in special elections as we speak. Trump Republicans in swing states have been losing hard.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:49
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i am a moron posted:I’m not waving it away I just think any statement I’ve read on this or the last page about it isn’t detailed enough to engage with. It’s a facile analysis of something very complex. Similarly you’re making statements about things being worse for working Americans, yet that is not what all the data is saying. It’s a narrative until you start making an actual case this is happening and start hazarding educated guesses at poll behavior. Otherwise it might as well be an opinion piece written by a conservative think tank on cnn.com. I'm not sure if you're going to be happy with any of the pieces below (and I'm not saying that there isn't some debate to be had on how truly bad off most Americans are right now), but we have been seeing a situation throughout the past couple of years where inflation has affected the purchasing power of a lot of people. While you are seeing wage increases, inflation is eating into how much those are helping. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-american-family-lost-7k-172024544.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/22/amid-lower-inflation-buying-power-rose-for-first-time-in-2-years.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/business/economy/september-jobs-report.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/business/inflation-cpi-report-september.html If there is another narrative on how things are getting better for Americans, it is having to fight against a narrative about things being worse.
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Oct 25, 2023 16:50
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Does New Hampshire's law lay out a minimum amount of time that they have to have their primary before anyone else? Like, what if it got to be the first by a couple of hours or something like that? Or even just a day?
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Oct 25, 2023 16:53
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Eric Cantonese posted:Does New Hampshire's law lay out a minimum amount of time that they have to have their primary before anyone else? Like, what if it got to be the first by a couple of hours or something like that? Or even just a day? By law it is either the first Tuesday in March, or one week (7 days) before the first other primary, whichever is earlier
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Oct 25, 2023 16:57
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small butter posted:In addition to people loathing Trump and a lot of these truisms being negated by this hatred, I'd argue that Trump is as much of an incumbent as Biden. He's a rare former president running for reelection. People know how he governs. They remember his neverending daily dramas. This has been true from the beginning, and we will all be reminded of his dumb poo poo with all of these upcoming trials during election season. Trump has been losing his and Republican elections since the special elections of 2017, including most recently in 2022 (which I argue was a loss). Democrats are swinging by 11 points in special elections as we speak. Trump Republicans in swing states have been losing hard. Can you put a number on "a lot"?
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Oct 25, 2023 16:59
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MegaZeroX posted:As someone who spent the first 22 years of his life in New Hampshire, it being the first primary is pretty baked into our state's culture, and even many people who don't even vote in the general election usually partake in it, and the DNC loving with this to reward a deep red state like South Carolina, which is even less reflective of the democratic base than NH, is still the stupidest move the DNC has done in the last decade. It is legitimately a factor that could push NH to vote in a republican representatives, Trump for president, or, if they continue this in future years, republican senators. South Carolina composition: 25% black 7% hispanic New Hampshire composition: 2% black 4% hispanic I'm really sorry but as angry as you might be about it, the dreaded state of South Carolina is much closer to the actual demographics of the country. Yes this stays true even if the dems were mean to you.
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Oct 25, 2023 17:01
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Eric Cantonese posted:I'm not sure if you're going to be happy with any of the pieces below (and I'm not saying that there isn't some debate to be had on how truly bad off most Americans are right now), but we have been seeing a situation throughout the past couple of years where inflation has affected the purchasing power of a lot of people. While you are seeing wage increases, inflation is eating into how much those are helping. To be clear, I’m not saying things have gotten better for workers. It’s been a really bizarre mixed bag since 2019 and Biden hasn’t exactly beaten back the ills of late stage capitalism. But questions I’d have for any analysis of this kind of thing would be things like, are the people who are most affected by the mixed bag of economic results even likely voters? If we look at historical trends are people even changing voting habits due to economic reasons? It feels to me like a narrative folks trot out (and not on a partisan basis) along with gas prices and other things that I think is more of a tribalist’s take on voter habits than anything based on a well reasoned analysis of voting habits and preferences
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Oct 25, 2023 17:01
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:South Carolina composition: 538 did an article back in 2019 about this, where South Carolina ranks 46th in matching with the share of democrats. Black people make up 58% of dems in SC, where they are only 20.4% of the democratic base. Its even more distorted than NH, since about 61.2% of democrats are white. New Hampshire ranks 34th in matching with the general Dem electorate. The most representative would be Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are the most representative swing states, though whether the former can still be considered one is up for debate I suppose
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Oct 25, 2023 17:14
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Republicans can make a federal law establishing NH as the first state if they like, or is that unconstitutional?
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Oct 25, 2023 17:16
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Nonsense posted:Republicans can make a federal law establishing NH as the first state if they like, or is that unconstitutional? The federal government is not involved in state parties planning their primaries in any way. Even if they wanted to for some reason, the 1st amendment would stop them from regulating the private right to assembly or association. If they really wanted to regulate the primary schedules federally, then they could pass a constitutional amendment and do it that way.
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Oct 25, 2023 17:19
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Eric Cantonese posted:
I mean we aren't stacking corpses so high the morgues are literally running out of time slots in the cremation ovens so that's a thing I'm enjoying about our endemic rather than pandemic present
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Oct 25, 2023 17:33
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