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E2M2 posted:It would be so dark if his poll numbers dropping would be what caused the US to try and reign in Israel. Collapsing polls haven't gotten Biden to change course on any of his other unpopular actions so far, his team will probably just double down on scolding people that they have to vote for him anyway or they'll get Trump. Alchenar posted:40% support for the guy who's literal first act last time around was an actual muslim ban. Well it's a poll of Arab-Americans, not just Muslims, so it would include for example Christian Arabs that tended to support the ban
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Oct 31, 2023 20:32
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Rubellavator posted:https://twitter.com/GeoffreyPlitt/status/1719413366006091955 That Twitter post is why I thought it didn't matter who was responsible for the Al-Ahli bombing because pro-Israel people would defend it by saying poo poo like this.
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Oct 31, 2023 20:33
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Alchenar posted:40% support for the guy who's literal first act last time around was an actual muslim ban. I suspect a non-trivial portion of that is Arab Christians. They tend to have unexpected politics that doesn't neatly slot in with "Democrats are the less racist party" kind of like Cubans. A lot of it is a sort of preference for or ambivalence towards dictators like Sisi or Assad, because they're seen as the only ones protecting Arab Christians in those countries from getting lynched by populist Islamic movements. The Abraham accords and the Trump/Kushner strategy of dividing up the region among strong men was probably quite popular. Or like every group of people they aren't immune from having a fygm mindset which is a big part of Trump's appeal.
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Oct 31, 2023 20:39
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VitalSigns posted:That would actually be less dark than the reality. And we're 1 and 1 on that which makes me nervous. Worked in 2020, didn't work in 2016. I know Trump has bashed Bibi because he congratulated Biden on winning in 2020 and that ego hit can't be unanswered, but the overall right-o-sphere seems to be 100% level Gaza, so I have no idea how Trump would handle it. Would he cave to being seen as big and strong and go for obliteration or is he so butt hurt about Bibi accepting that Biden won he'd go with Hezbollah and Hamas are very smart and cool guys? Then again he's starting to forget what city he's in and rant about how he beat Obama in 2016.
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Oct 31, 2023 20:39
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E2M2 posted:It would be so dark if his poll numbers dropping would be what caused the US to try and reign in Israel. In America that's what we call progress
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Oct 31, 2023 20:41
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Outside of Al Jazeera every headline I saw about the airstrike said "blast" or "explosion" until the IDF confirmed. Must be nice having a compliant media who will help you muddy the waters.
Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 20:44
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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:And we're 1 and 1 on that which makes me nervous. Worked in 2020, didn't work in 2016. I know Trump has bashed Bibi because he congratulated Biden on winning in 2020 and that ego hit can't be unanswered, but the overall right-o-sphere seems to be 100% level Gaza, so I have no idea how Trump would handle it. Would he cave to being seen as big and strong and go for obliteration or is he so butt hurt about Bibi accepting that Biden won he'd go with Hezbollah and Hamas are very smart and cool guys? Then again he's starting to forget what city he's in and rant about how he beat Obama in 2016. I mean we could entirely end up in a 2024 election where Trump and Biden both died of old age and it would only be a mild surprise.
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Oct 31, 2023 20:47
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 20:47
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E2M2 posted:It would be so dark if his poll numbers dropping would be what caused the US to try and reign in Israel. I don't think Biden makes middle east policy based on polling. I think he makes middle east policy based on thinking it's 1980 whenever it's after 4:30pm, which is why he keeps telling everyone that Golda Meir story. (but seriously there seems to be a strong inability for Democrats older than 50 to learn any new information about the region that happened since 1990 or so.)
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Oct 31, 2023 20:59
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Groovelord Neato posted:Outside of Al Jazeera every headline I saw about the airstrike said "blast" or "explosion" until the IDF confirmed. Must be nice having a compliant media who will help you muddy the waters. That's just careful, responsible reporting. You don't presume what happened until you are able to gather more info. Please don't let your emotions cloud the obvious value of basic fact-checking and good journalism.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:04
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He's slipped 11% among Dems in the last month, this is absolutely having an effect and if things get worse, which they seem likely too, they would have to be politically blind to not see this war is killing his chance at re-election. There's still a full year before the election so a lot can happen to him and his opponent, but the current trend is political death: https://news.gallup.com/poll/513305/democrats-ratings-biden-slip-overall-approval.aspx My guess is based on the intelligence they don't share with the rest of us, they feel Dems need to keep towing the line for Israel cause things are likely to get very bad for their favorite ally. But the US populace, from right to left wants nothing to do with another Middle East campaign, so the guy in charge now is tanking across the board.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:08
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Pvt. Parts posted:That's just careful, responsible reporting. You don't presume what happened until you are able to gather more info. Please don't let your emotions cloud the obvious value of basic fact-checking and good journalism. You might want to familiarize yourself with US journalism, buddy. Home of the "a weapon was discharged in an officer-involved incident" description of a cop murdering an unarmed man
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Oct 31, 2023 21:10
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Pvt. Parts posted:That's just careful, responsible reporting. You don't presume what happened until you are able to gather more info. Please don't let your emotions cloud the obvious value of basic fact-checking and good journalism. The refugee camp that has been there for years MIGHT have just spontaneously detonated at the same time someone is raining bombs all over Gaza, it could have been a coincidence!
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Oct 31, 2023 21:14
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Jaxyon posted:You might want to familiarize yourself with US journalism, buddy. Good thing we aren't talking about US journalism? When people start not only presupposing stuff but also insisting that major news outlets do the same it just lays their bias out to bare.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:15
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Pvt. Parts posted:That's just careful, responsible reporting. You don't presume what happened until you are able to gather more info. Please don't let your emotions cloud the obvious value of basic fact-checking and good journalism. Airstrikes are pretty distinct. You don't have to report that an airstrike was Israeli, because there is a vanishingly slim chance that another air force in the region successfully hit Gaza, but identifying an airstrike as an airstrike rather than 'an explosion' is responsible reporting.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:16
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Orthanc6 posted:He's slipped 11% among Dems in the last month, this is absolutely having an effect and if things get worse, which they seem likely too, they would have to be politically blind to not see this war is killing his chance at re-election. There's still a full year before the election so a lot can happen to him and his opponent, but the current trend is political death: This is the first time in recent memory where there was just too much carnage from Israel's war crimes to hide too. I think people are just not actually on board with violence that they can see. Pvt. Parts posted:That's just careful, responsible reporting. You don't presume what happened until you are able to gather more info. Please don't let your emotions cloud the obvious value of basic fact-checking and good journalism. do you ever feel kind of ashamed? there's no possible explanation for a city block sized crater outside of an Israeli airstrike. There's absolutely no reason to equivocate or hesitate in reporting this.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:16
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punishedkissinger posted:This is the first time in recent memory where there was just too much carnage from Israel's war crimes to hide too. I think people are just not actually on board with violence that they can see. Things are going to get a lot worse. Israel war crimes are only going to escalate. This is a tragedy, for Joe Biden. 
Dante80 fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 21:20
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The crazy thing is that Biden is slipping that much for doing functionally nothing. It's not like he's declared war on Hamas or whatever, just said "we aren't gonna change course on what America has been doing for the last 20 years." It's hard as an American to comprehend people caring so much about foreign policy now after Syria, Libya, Yemen, basically anywhere you care to name being completely "meh" from a foreign policy perspective. I expect the situation will change long before polling translates to voting, but it does sort of feel like a sea change that U/R and now I/P are issues that seem to actually cause really strong reactions from voters. After the backlash from Iraq and Afghanistan in the Bush years I'm honestly surprised that people are resisting isolationism/maintaining relations as-is. I suppose the real kicker is that Republican voters remain easy to please with "bomb Iran and withdraw from NATO" while Dem voters have increasingly complicated preferences, so the big tent yet again gets torn asunder by issues that can't be straddled
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Oct 31, 2023 21:24
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Ms Adequate posted:The refugee camp that has been there for years MIGHT have just spontaneously detonated at the same time someone is raining bombs all over Gaza, it could have been a coincidence! I am honestly surprised Israel took responsibility for this one instead of claiming another Islamic Jihad super rocket misfire.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:26
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BougieBitch posted:The crazy thing is that Biden is slipping that much for doing functionally nothing. It's not like he's declared war on Hamas or whatever, just said "we aren't gonna change course on what America has been doing for the last 20 years." It's hard as an American to comprehend people caring so much about foreign policy now after Syria, Libya, Yemen, basically anywhere you care to name being completely "meh" from a foreign policy perspective. I mean every single dem lining up to loudly call anybody protesting or even expressing general distaste for indiscriminate bombing of Palestinian civilians a terrorist sympathizer probably didn't help. 22 years since 9/11 and the dumb fucks still haven't learned that anyone who finds this Diet Fash bit appealing is just gonna go buy Fash Classic at the store next door. Edit: Also for Yemen we didn't relocate a carrier group and while the president wept and bear hugged MBS. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 21:36
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Israel is claiming to have killed a specific high-ranking Hamas commander (Ibrahim Biari) this time. Guess we can wait and see if Hamas contradicts that. I agree that this is just the beginning and it will get far worse - Israel isn't really engaging in urban warfare or counter-insurgency in the traditional sense, they seem to be just using ground troops to identify pockets of resistance and blowing up absolutely everything in the area when they do.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:38
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PostNouveau posted:I am honestly surprised Israel took responsibility for this one instead of claiming another Islamic Jihad super rocket misfire. Yes, they are Big Bad Guy, be sure to never give them any credit even when it's staring you in the face. punishedkissinger posted:do you ever feel kind of ashamed? there's no possible explanation for a city block sized crater outside of an Israeli airstrike. There's absolutely no reason to equivocate or hesitate in reporting this. It must be nice to be so sure of everything. Morally, factually, and so on. If your really think that every explosion in Gaza should be attributed to Israel out of the gate, even after some serious independent doubt has been cast on such explosions in the past (such as the one at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital), I dunno there is not many places to go from there. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 31, 2023 21:42
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BougieBitch posted:The crazy thing is that Biden is slipping that much for doing functionally nothing. It's not like he's declared war on Hamas or whatever, just said "we aren't gonna change course on what America has been doing for the last 20 years." It's hard as an American to comprehend people caring so much about foreign policy now after Syria, Libya, Yemen, basically anywhere you care to name being completely "meh" from a foreign policy perspective. Honestly, just like how the Libyan War taught small powers that they need nuclear weapons, and Russia's SWIFT ban taught small powers that they need to be economically resilient on a domestic level, this war should be teaching small powers that they need to get all their citizens cameraphones ASAP. Of course there's other factors; a US president wholly incapable of speeching his way out of criticism, Israel's PR being either ancient or confident on a psychopathic level, TikTok not being US controlled, and Twitter being bought out by a libertarian moron who, in the most literal sense, ripped out most of the algorithms that curate this stuff away from apolitical eyes. Pvt. Parts posted:It must be nice to be so sure of everything. Morally, factually, and so on. If your really think that every explosion in Gaza should be attributed to Israel out of the gate, even after some serious independent doubt has been cast on such explosions in the past (such as the one at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital), I dunno there is not many places to go from there. As of the New York Times investigation, every video alleging that Hamas or PIJ hit the hospital has been discredited. Israel hasn't even thrown up a new one. They've muddled the waters long enough that they can stop pretending. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 21:47
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Pvt. Parts posted:Yes, they are Big Bad Guy, be sure to never give them any credit even when it's staring you in the face. Give them credit for what? Committing war crimes without even giving enough fucks to try and mask/hide/deny them anymore? I sincerely don't understand..
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Oct 31, 2023 21:47
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 21:50
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Unprecedented for any US politician to threaten Israel in this way.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:51
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Pvt. Parts posted:It must be nice to be so sure of everything. Morally, factually, and so on. If your really think that every explosion in Gaza should be attributed to Israel out of the gate, even after some serious independent doubt has been cast on such explosions in the past (such as the one at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital), I dunno there is not many places to go from there.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:52
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Pvt. Parts posted:It must be nice to be so sure of everything. Morally, factually, and so on. If your really think that every explosion in Gaza should be attributed to Israel out of the gate, Every massive explosion should be assumed to be the work of the country with munitions capable of producing massive explosions yeah quote:even after some serious independent doubt has been cast on such explosions in the past (such as the one at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital), I dunno there is not many places to go from there. this has never happened though. the only parties that have ever muddied the waters on this have been Israel and the US, or news outlets regurgitating their press releases. Dante80 posted:Give them credit for what? Committing war crimes without even giving enough fucks to try and mask/hide/deny them anymore? punishedkissinger fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 21:53
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mannerup posted:I think Trump has already narrowed his domestic messaging on the issue, but I can't rule out him posting some absolute bangers about Bibi calling him and begging him like a dog for advice on how to make Hezbollah target Iran with their beautiful missiles instead and how Bibi is only prime minister because of Trump's 2013 endorsement. There are 600 of our citizens who are in danger of being collateral damage, but ok
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Oct 31, 2023 21:54
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Orthanc6 posted:He's slipped 11% among Dems in the last month, this is absolutely having an effect and if things get worse, which they seem likely too, they would have to be politically blind to not see this war is killing his chance at re-election. There's still a full year before the election so a lot can happen to him and his opponent, but the current trend is political death: nobody will care by Nov 2024, except possibly evangelical christians who thinks bombing gaza is the way towards the literaly return of christ
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Oct 31, 2023 21:58
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Typo posted:nobody will care by Nov 2024, except possibly evangelical christians who thinks bombing gaza is the way towards the literaly return of christ I think the "Evangelicals only love Israel because they want the apocalypse to happen ASAP" is probably a conspiracy-theory-esque lurid exaggeration of a more mundane but just-as-dangerous reality, that evangelical Christians are so enamored with an idealized vision of Jewish religion and Bible stories that they'll get behind anyone with a shofar and a gun. Agreed that most American voters will have forgotten about this by '24, but among those who remember, it'll be uniformly bad for Biden.
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Oct 31, 2023 22:05
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Dante80 posted:Give them credit for what? Committing war crimes without even giving enough fucks to try and mask/hide/deny them anymore? Literally yes. Which may sound funny but for anyone actually looking to approach things systematically it's not nothing. Imagine someone on trial for a crime they admit to vs. someone who does not, very different situations and it should be obvious why to anyone trying to play third-party. It also brings credence to the idea that IDF can be a trusted voice on their bombing campaign if they admit to striking a refugee camp. Maybe that "Israeli airstrike" that hit that hospital parking lot that had 500 confirmed deaths not even a few hours later wasn't the doings of IDF, as they seem to be openly reporting their targets. And so on. Halloween Jack posted:This is the behaviour of someone who knows they're full of poo poo. Like, can we ever really "know" anything? What is "truth," after all? Yes, all the available evidence points to the IDF, but how can we be certain, ontologically speaking? Nope, it's just the proper stance of someone who knows they live on the other side of the world from this conflict, that it would be much too dangerous and time expensive to verify everything happening on the ground themselves, that they therefore need to rely on third parties to do that for them, and that this creates an information/disinformation market and war by proxy. This applies to both sides of the conflict of course. Things are sometimes not what they seem. Usually they are, but only reporting what you know (for some reasonable definition of "know") is the current standard in journalism or at least should be.
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Oct 31, 2023 22:08
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Israel is claiming to have killed a specific high-ranking Hamas commander (Ibrahim Biari) this time. Guess we can wait and see if Hamas contradicts that. Doesn't really matter if he was there, and lighting a comically large Acme Rocket aimed at Israel. They carpet bombed a refugee camp.
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Oct 31, 2023 22:09
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Pvt. Parts posted:It also brings credence to the idea that IDF can be a trusted voice on their bombing campaign if they admit to striking a refugee camp does it...? like, if your kid fesses up when you catch them with both hands in the cookie jar, does that mean they're less likely to be lying when you catch them with crumbs all over their face? punishedkissinger fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 22:13
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Wrong thread
WoodrowSkillson fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 22:14
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punishedkissinger posted:does it...? like, if your kid fesses up when you catch them with both hands in the cookie jar, does that mean their less likely to be lying when you catch them with crumbs on al over their face? also the cookie jar in this case is 500 dead refugees
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Oct 31, 2023 22:15
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Typo posted:nobody will care by Nov 2024, except possibly evangelical christians who thinks bombing gaza is the way towards the literaly return of christ I wouldn't say nobody I mean, people have lost family members, that tends not to be forgotten very quickly. Most Americans though yeah, but most Americans probably don't care right now either. Although that may be scant comfort since recent elections were won and lost at the margins. Hillary Clinton had scandals that 'most' Americans didn't care about but that turned out to not be as safe a bet as she thought.
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Oct 31, 2023 22:15
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I think the "Evangelicals only love Israel because they want the apocalypse to happen ASAP" is probably a conspiracy-theory-esque lurid exaggeration of a more mundane but just-as-dangerous reality, that evangelical Christians are so enamored with an idealized vision of Jewish religion and Bible stories that they'll get behind anyone with a shofar and a gun. yeah there is a small percentage of the population that believes that insane millenarian poo poo, but it's dwarfed by conservatives that just like Israel because it's a far-right religious state that we have been allies with forever and also all that bible stuff you mention above. they just buy into the propaganda and support p much all the things the left thinks is bad about israel (in large part because the left thinks it's bad, too), it doesn't take some loony belief in the need for the literal apocalypse eke out fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 22:15
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I think the "Evangelicals only love Israel because they want the apocalypse to happen ASAP" is probably a conspiracy-theory-esque lurid exaggeration of a more mundane but just-as-dangerous reality, that evangelical Christians are so enamored with an idealized vision of Jewish religion and Bible stories that they'll get behind anyone with a shofar and a gun. The anniversary of 10/7 will be conveniently just about one month before election day, I don't think this fades in the way it might otherwise fade especially if the genocide goes all the way. The timing will prove to be inconvenient to this getting handwaved away Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 22:17
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Nail Rat posted:The anniversary of 10/7 will be conveniently just about one month before election day I don't think most americans can even remember 10/7 as the date of the initial hamas attack even now lol
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Oct 31, 2023 22:19
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