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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

why is oprah now abandoning Z-man? is it because ukraine is a culture war thing now like everything else?

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Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Jel Shaker posted:

i was going to say you’re probably better off long term planning things with the bosses of these “temporary workers” i.e. the heads of major industries, but now it’s really just a mish mash of huge private equity funds who all own various huge slices of the same companies, and a conversation with them is almost certainly like talking to a fish with a memory that only lasts from quarter to quarter

Nobody runs western capitalism. It just does things in accordance to its own rules.

Weka posted:

China proven to be correct once again in it's policy of doing diplomacy with cybernetic capitalism as the other party.

Chairman Xi my country longs for freedom

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

what the loving hell is he even talking about

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Starsfan posted:

what the loving hell is he even talking about

i think its just ai generated and then badly translated

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Starsfan posted:

what the loving hell is he even talking about

it focus grouped well, what more do you want

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

on the one hand vovan and lexus absolutely guaranteed for sure have some connection to russian intelligence, but on the other their calls do mostly seem genuine, seeing as nobody ever issues any kind of denial to their allegations

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Delta-Wye posted:

it focus grouped well, what more do you want

this really is the tragedy of the late-zelensky style of international politics. he was always saying corny stuff like this, but for a while he held universal commentariat sympathy which gave his platitudes a patina of heroism and somehow elevated them. now that it's gone it's just all cringe again

Officer Sandvich
Feb 14, 2010
MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT, Valerii Zaluzhnyi

quote:

Having launched the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine on February 24,
2022, the russian federation provoked the beginning of an unprecedented global security crisis, the largest since the end of the Second World War. russian great-power chauvinism multiplied by sick imperial ambitions gradually turns the military conflict it began in the
centre of Europe into an armed confrontation between democratic and authoritarian political regimes with the prospect of its spread to other regions of the planet with similar geopolitical models (Israel and the Gaza Strip, South and North Koreas, Taiwan and China, etc.). The
insufficient effectiveness of the existing global political regulatory mechanisms, primarily the UN and the OSCE, leaves Ukraine no choice but to restore its territorial integrity after the
large-scale armed aggression within the internationally recognized borders of 1991,
exclusively by military force, in which its Armed Forces (AF) play a decisive role.

Having entered the war with a stronger enemy, which has a lot of weapons and a much
greater mobilization capabilities, Ukraine was not only able to stop it, but also to conduct a successful counteroffensive in 2022 and stave the enemy off along many axes. The people of Ukraine have demonstrated their willingness not in words, but in deeds to lay down their soul and body for their freedom. However, due to many subjective and objective reasons, the war at the present stage is gradually moving to a positional form, a way out of which in the
historical retrospect has always been difficult for both the Armed Forces and the state as a whole. At the same time, the prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. In our particular case, it is the russian federation, as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power. Therefore, the issues of
understanding the causes of such a situation, finding possible ways out of it and changing the nature and course of this war in favour of Ukraine are of particular relevance in modern
conditions.

An analysis of the current situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other
components of the state Defence Forces are placed shows that in order to find a way out of the positional form of warfare, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Therefore, the determination of the reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form and the search for possible ways out of this situation should obviously be carried out according to these main components.

quote:

Reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form

As for gaining air superiority.

...
The Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the war with 120 tactical aircraft, out of which
only 40 were considered to be technically suitable for utilization, and 33 medium and
short-range anti-aircraft missile battalions, of which only 18 had fully serviceable equipment. Due to the material and logistical assistance of the Partner Nations, Ukraine has strengthened its aviation and air defence system. In particular, fighter and attack aircraft, as well as
Soviet-made helicopters, were received. The number of anti-aircraft missile systems was significantly increased mainly due to Western-made assets, in particular, "Martlet",
"Starstreak", "Javelin", "Piorun", "Mistral", "Stinger", "Grom" man-portable air-defence
systems, "Gepard" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, "Skynex" air defence gun systems,
"Avenger", "Stormer", "Patriot", "Hawk", "IRIS-T", "NASAMS", "SAMP-T", "Crotale-NG"
air defence systems. Due to this, since the beginning of the large-scale armed aggression, the russian federation has lost a number of aircraft that roughly corresponds to the number of aircraft of one air army, and helicopters – about 13 regiments (brigades) of army aviation. In addition, the losses of enemy air defence systems of various types already exceed 550 pieces. Despite such losses, today the enemy continues to maintain significant air superiority, which
complicates the advance of our troops and is one of the key factors that transforms the nature
of hostilities into a positional form.
...

As for mine barriers breaching in depth.

...
As of February 24, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a limited capabilities
package designed for breaching mine barriers. There were technically outdated pieces of
equipment in service. Due to Western partners in the course of hostilities, it was possible to
slightly augment the capabilities of engineer units (elements) on breaching using such assets
as M58 MICLIC, Wicent 1, NM189 Ingeniorpanservogn, but given the unprecedented scale of
these barriers, even such capabilities are objectively lacking.

Today, the enemy mine barriers along particularly important axes have a high density
and reach a depth of 15-20 km. Their cover is conducted by reconnaissance UAVs, which
effectively detect our obstacle-clearing detachments (teams) and target fire at them. In case of
successful mine barriers breaching, the enemy quickly restores minefields in these areas by
such engineering system of remote mine-laying as "Zemledeliye". At the same time, the
Armed Forces of Ukraine are no less effective in using mine barriers and reconnaissance and
fire complexes to detect and destroy the enemy`s engineer equipment for demining.
...

As for counter-battery.

In the russian-Ukrainian war, as in the wars of the past, the role of missile forces and
artillery in fires remains quite significant, and depending on the conditions, axes and areas of
operations varies from 60 to 80% of the total volume of tasks executed. The success of the
troops' operations directly depends on the effectiveness of strikes and fire, so the "hunt" for
the enemy's fire is a priority for both parties. Counter-battery is becoming an important
component of the armed confrontation. And despite the statements of some so-called
"military analysts", various publications, including in the russian media, regarding the
gradual weakening of russia, we have no right to belittle the importance and capabilities of
russian weapons, its ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and
countermeasures, the ability of the military-industrial complex of the aggressor state to
supply the troops with a significant number of both outdated and modern weapons and
equipment. We must realistically assess threats, analyse experience, and draw conclusions.

Immediately after receiving Western missile and artillery weapons, the Armed Forces of
Ukraine gained a significant superiority and significant success in counter-battery. Thus,
precision guided munition e.g. Excalibur (155 mm shell) proved to be quite effective in the
fight against self-propelled artillery and counter-battery radars. However, over time, their
capabilities have significantly decreased, since the targeting system (using GPS) is very
sensitive to the influence of enemy electronic warfare, which leads to a loss of precision of
ammunition.

The enemy quickly learned to apply new tactics: dispersal (by guns); fire from the
maximum range; use of new electronic warfare assets (the“Pole 21” electronic
countermeasure system), etc. Also, the enemy quite widely and effectively began to use the
Lancet loitering munition with target “illumination”, the Orlan, Zala UAVs and others for
counter-battery, countering which is quite difficult.

In order to maintain and increase the duel superiority, the russians, through the use of
outdated artillery systems (D-1, D-20, etc.), significantly increased the artillery density and
its ability to massively use conventional ammunition. The enemy has also increased the
production and intensity of the use of 122 mm Krasnopol precision guided munition, which is
aimed at targets by target illumination with a rangefinder from ground-based observation
posts.

As a countermeasure to the enemy, we were forced to utilize rocket artillery systems
e.g. "HIMARS" to defeat his artillery. However, a significant part of the existing set of
missiles was utilized for hitting these targets (artillery, MLRS, etc.). Currently, we have
managed to achieve a notional parity with the numerically prevailing enemy artillery due to a
smaller number of higher-quality (accurate) fires.

As for creation and preparation of the necessary reserves.

Compared to Ukraine, the russian federation has almost three times more mobilization
human resources. Having failed to succeed in the initial period of the war, the enemy began a
partial mobilization by the composition of the armed forces of peacetime in September 2022,
which continues to date. But he fails to take advantage of the mobilization of human
resources to create a significant superiority in the combat strength of task forces directly
fighting against Ukraine.

The main reasons for this state are political, organizational and motivational in nature.
Thus, on the eve of the presidential election, the president of the russian federation, putin, is
afraid to conduct a general mobilization in connection with the possible risks of growing
social tension in the state and turning it into a political crisis. The enemy has limited
capabilities to train mobilized citizens and provide them with the necessary weapons and
equipment. Due to significant losses of personnel, the civilian population of the russian
federation seeks to evade conscription and participation in hostilities.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that despite the fact that the command
of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is constantly working to improve the procedure for creating
and preparing reserves, some issues remain problematic. In particular, we have limited
capabilities to train reserves on our own territory, since the enemy has the ability to launch
missile and air strikes on training centres and training grounds. The prolonged nature of the
war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation
that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to
serve with the military. We are aware of these issues, we see ways to solve them and are
constantly working on it. Thus, this leads to the lack of Ukraine's ability to achieve
superiority over the enemy in reserves by increasing their number.

As for electronic warfare.

...
Even before the events of 2014, the military and political leadership of the russian
federation paid considerable attention to the development of electronic warfare. An
illustrative example of this is the creation in 2009 of a separate branch of the armed forces of
the russian federation – the electronic warfare troops. In addition, as part of the russian armed
forces, a powerful air component of electronic warfare has been created, which ensures the
effective employment of troops (forces) and high-precision weapons. The enemy adopted
about 60 types of modern electronic warfare equipment, which have better characteristics,
high mobility, increased security, short set-up and tear-down time, the introduction of new
technical solutions, automation tools, special software, etc. Almost the entire fleet of obsolete
equipment has been updated.

The main advantages of russian electronic warfare equipment also include the
establishment of serial production of the so-called "trench electronic warfare" ("Silok",
"Piton", "Harpoon", "Piroed", "Strizh", "Lisochok"), which the tactical level of the russian
troops is saturated with. Despite the fact that since the beginning of large-scale armed
aggression, the enemy has lost a significant part of this equipment, today it continues to
maintain a significant electronic warfare superiority. Along the Kupyansk and Bakhmut axes,
the enemy actually established a layered electronic warfare system, the elements of which
constantly change their location.

As for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, by 2022, such modern electronic warfare assets
with UAVs such as "Bukovel-AD", "Enclave", "Khmara", "Nota" were adopted, which later
proved themselves well in combat. But despite this, at the beginning of the war, about 65% of
jamming stations types in units (elements) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were produced by
the former Soviet Union, and there were only 25 new ones.
...

Officer Sandvich has issued a correction as of 22:47 on Nov 1, 2023

supersnowman
Oct 3, 2012

mila kunis posted:

weird that they didn't tell the ukrainians that they had to win quick or they'd get bored when they cajoled them into escalating and subsequently refusing all peace negotiations

Why would you say anything about that when your plan is based on the "fact" Russia would collapse under the sanctions? They only had to hold on for a few months according to the plan.

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

V. Illych L. posted:

this really is the tragedy of the late-zelensky style of international politics. he was always saying corny stuff like this, but for a while he held universal commentariat sympathy which gave his platitudes a patina of heroism and somehow elevated them. now that it's gone it's just all cringe again

Zelensky's shtick when the world desperately wanted to back Ukraine vs after is like when those terrible performers who who have only performed for friends and family get on a talent show and finally get a genuine reaction from people who aren't invested in boosting them.

sum
Nov 15, 2010


I was going to post this, you beat me. You edited out some of the choice parts about clearing minefields with firehouses and blinding UAVs with infrared lasers.

Ultimately, the treatise reads like Zaluzhny grasping for straws trying to figure out how to fight an industrial war with a post-industrial, neoliberalized society (before anyone says it: Ukraine isn't post-industrial per se but the countries providing the weapons are). It reads like he's accepted that the West cannot outproduce Russia and that Ukrainian society cannot be sufficiently motivated to provide infantry, so logically the only hope for Ukraine decisively winning is some Western technical deus ex machina rescuing the AFU from being mired in a losing attritional war.

As Frosted Flake would probably be much more qualified to write about (and as Zaluzhny probably also knows, but incorrectly asserted), new technology was not the primary reason movement returned to the western front of WWI after 3-odd years of trench warfare. Maneuver warfare primarily returned 1. because the belligerents' respective war industries started producing more of existing armaments (e.g., shell manufacture increased by many times, hand grenades went from being a battalion-level specialty asset to something every infantryman had, etc.) and 2. the two sides got much better at tactically and strategically concentrating firepower to effectively smash open defenses (also 3. Germany launched Operation Michael due to the particular strategic situation of early 1918 and punched themselves out).

As Zaluzhny stated in his treatise, Ukraine cannot stockpile munitions (which would allow them to expend them at once to smash open Russian lines) and it palpably has a shortage of officers (e.g., see the leadership and performance of the 47th brigade). This makes it impossible for it to decisively concentrate mass and firepower to force a breakthrough. So what's left? Hope the tech dorks make an app that clears minefields I guess.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Officer Sandvich posted:

MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT, Valerii Zaluzhnyi

it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Therefore, the determination of the reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form and the search for possible ways out of this situation should obviously be carried out according to these main components.

They're 0/5 lol

as sum said, you can sense the desperation for a technological silver bullet because these are all "old", relatively simple, strategic problems but the solution - industrial production - is unthinkable.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 23:46 on Nov 1, 2023

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
a wizard will come and fix it is the traditional response to the contradictions and outcomes of neoliberalism

Phigs
Jan 23, 2019

A real technological silver bullet would require significant funding for research and development to an organization whose goals are not grifting so you can write that off too.

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

mila kunis posted:

a wizard will come and fix it is the traditional response to the contradictions and outcomes of neoliberalism

"I cast Invisible Hand!"

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Zaraf | Z posted:


(Click thumbnail to open video)
Our fighters using MANPAD "Verba". It was adopted relatively recently. This MANPAD has a three-spectral homing head. Verba is better than its predecessor "Igla". MANPAD hasa long target capture range - from 500 to 6000 meters. In general, the thing is good, I would like to see their use more often.

Zaraf
(from t.me/zarafru/3270, via tgsa)

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021

Weka posted:

Welcome back Tankbuster, free from a bullshit break

There is no competition, Israel gets top priority and knows it, they just can't piss off Russia too much because then Russia will increase their support to Syria.

Given Zelensky had already done a 180 on policy due to pressure from some podunk fascists, it was pretty predictable that when America leant on him he would do exactly what he was told, especially given that those fascists interests were lined up with the USA's.

I was sent to the poasting prison.

Shogi
Nov 23, 2004

distant Pohjola

Officer Sandvich posted:

Speaking of Time magazine



The only "Man of The Year" who died in his own piss

dunno, bro

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Jel Shaker posted:

According to reports in the Italian press, the callers were two Russian comedians, Vladimir Kuznetsov and Alexei Stolyarov, jointly known as Vovan and Lexus, one of whom presented himself to Meloni as “an African politician”.

why come.... why come I'm 'pposed to support Ukraine

antipattern
Nov 8, 2019


I see he still believes Ukraine will be let into the EU, any day now

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009


but that would mean the last 600+ days of death and destruction have been pointless!!

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

new theory: zelenskyy sinks a US carrier and blames it on Russia

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002

CODChimera posted:

but that would mean the last 600+ days of death and destruction have been pointless!!

sunk cost zelensky

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

CODChimera posted:

new theory: zelenskyy sinks a US carrier and blames it on Russia

wtf i like zelensky now

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

crepeface posted:

why come.... why come I'm 'pposed to support Ukraine

thank you for your concern, mr. Linux Ubuntu

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

antipattern posted:

I see he still believes Ukraine will be let into the EU, any day now

well who wouldn't be climbing over themselves to bring the economic powerhouse Ukraine on board, many are calling Ukraine the future Dubai of Europe.

I like how Putin's position is "sure, join the EU, we don't give a poo poo about that" and yet it doesn't seem particularly likely that Ukraine will ever make it in..

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

antipattern posted:

I see he still believes Ukraine will be let into the EU, any day now
he's dumb and maybe still does believe that, but the big reason is using it as propaganda. liberals have utterly massive catnip boners over the EU and love "self-determination" buzzword that they suddenly learned on twitter a few years ago. Like i really cannot understate how much libs love EU and don't see why every country shouldn't join it and infact it's dastardly reactionary CHUDDDdd to be against it. telling liberals "putler is denying ukraine their self-determination to join the EU" is very potent move crafted specifically to tickle the feeble brains, despite being entirely wrong.

supersnowman
Oct 3, 2012

Xaris posted:

he's dumb and maybe still does believe that, but the big reason is using it as propaganda. liberals have utterly massive catnip boners over the EU and love "self-determination" buzzword that they suddenly learned on twitter a few years ago. Like i really cannot understate how much libs love EU and don't see why every country shouldn't join it and infact it's dastardly reactionary CHUDDDdd to be against it. telling liberals "putler is denying ukraine their self-determination to join the EU" is very potent move crafted specifically to tickle the feeble brains, despite being entirely wrong.

It's incredibly stupid because Putin wasn't against the Ukrainian move to join the EU anyway. He might have started a war halfcocked but he's still intelligent enough to know the issue would come with NATO and not the EU.

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

CODChimera posted:

new theory: zelenskyy sinks a US carrier and blames it on Russia

Scarabrae posted:

sunk cost zelensky

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

supersnowman posted:

It's incredibly stupid because Putin wasn't against the Ukrainian move to join the EU anyway. He might have started a war halfcocked but he's still intelligent enough to know the issue would come with NATO and not the EU.

The issue was also on the slide with the EU, eventually Ukraine would be integrated in a Western security structure. Euromadian started because the government was ready to drop an EU association agreement for entry in the Eurasian Union, it is about both the EU and NATO.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

I imagine Putin dreamed of breaking EU away from NATO and America.

It's the only thing that really explains his pro western outlook for the past like 20 years or something.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Putin in 2007 "America's hegemony is unstable and is collapsing"

Western reporters in 2007 "Putin is threatening to destroy America"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ58Yv6kP44

fizzier
Oct 29, 2023

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
乌克兰的坏消息 - 乌克兰总司令瓦列里·扎卢日尼将军表示,战场让他想起一个世纪前的伟大冲突。 “就像第一次世界大战一样,我们的技术水平已经达到了让我们陷入僵局的程度,”他说。 将军的结论是,需要巨大的技术飞跃才能打破僵局。 “很可能不会有深刻而美丽的突破。”


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

Ukraine’s top general on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia
Nov 1st 2023

Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions.

An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian defensive lines. “If you look at NATO's text books and at the maths which we did [in planning the counter-offensive], four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops and equipment get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust, in the south, where newly formed and inexperienced brigades, despite being equipped with modern Western kit, immediately ran into trouble.

“First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the commander told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student in a military academy in Ukraine. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P. S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”

That thesis, he says, was borne out as he went to the front line in Avdiivka, also in the east, where Russia has recently advanced by a few hundred metres over several weeks by throwing in two of its armies. “On our monitor screens the day I was there we saw 140 Russian machines ablaze—destroyed within four hours of coming within firing range of our artillery.” Those fleeing were chased by “first-person-view” drones, remote-controlled and carrying explosive charges that their operators simply crash into the enemy. The same picture unfolds when Ukrainian troops try to advance. General Zaluzhny describes a battlefield in which modern sensors can identify any concentration of forces, and modern precision weapons can destroy it. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.

This time, however, the decisive factor will be not a single new invention, but by combining all the technical solutions that already exist, he says. In an article written for The Economist by General Zaluzhny (see here), as well as in a full-length essay shared with the newspaper, he urges innovation in drones, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities and de-mining equipment, including new robotic solutions. “We need to ride the power embedded in new technologies,” says the general.

Western allies have been overly cautious in supplying Ukraine with their latest technology and more powerful weapons. Joe Biden, America’s president, set objectives at the start of Russia’s invasion: to ensure that Ukraine was not defeated and that America was not dragged into confrontation with Russia. This means that arms supplied by the West have been sufficient in sustaining Ukraine in the war, but not enough to allow it to win. General Zaluzhny is not complaining: “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts.”

But by holding back the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, the West allowed Russia to regroup and build up its defences in the aftermath of a sudden breakthrough in Kharkiv region in the north and in Kherson in the south late in 2022. “These systems were most relevant to us last year, but they only arrived this year,” he says. Similarly, f-16 jets, due next year, are now less helpful, suggests the general, in part because Russia has improved its air defences: an experimental version of the s-400 missile system can reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns.

Yet the delay in arms deliveries, though frustrating, is not the main cause of Ukraine’s predicament, according to General Zaluzhny. “It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he insists. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.” It is, instead, technology that will be decisive, he argues. The general is enthused by recent conversations with Eric Schmidt, the former chief executive of Google, and stressed the decisive role of drones, and of electronic warfare which can prevent them from flying.

General Zaluzhny’s assessment is sobering: there is no sign that a revolutionary technological breakthrough, whether in drones or in electronic warfare, is around the corner. And technology has its limits. Even in the first world war, the arrival of tanks, in 1917, was not sufficient to break the deadlock on the battlefield: it took a suite of technologies, and more than a decade of tactical innovation, to produce the German blitzkrieg in May 1940. The implication is that Ukraine is stuck in a long war—one in which he acknowledges Russia has the advantage. Nevertheless, he insists that Ukraine has no choice but to keep the initiative by remaining on the offensive, even if it only moves by a few metres a day.

Crimea, he believes, remains Mr Putin’s greatest vulnerability. It is the linchpin of his imperial restoration project, and his legitimacy rests on having brought it back to Russia. Over the past few months, Ukraine has taken the war into the peninsula Mr Putin annexed in 2014 and which remains critical to the logistics of his war. “It must know that it is part of Ukraine and that this war is happening there.” On October 30th Ukraine struck Crimea with American-supplied long-range atacms missiles for the first time.

General Zaluzhny is desperately trying to prevent the war from settling into the trenches. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state,” he says. In the first world war, mutinies interfered before technology could make a difference. Four empires collapsed and a revolution broke out in Russia.

A collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support is precisely what Mr Putin is counting on. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, a country with a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine’s. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now, General Zaluzhny says, he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”

supersnowman
Oct 3, 2012

Ardennes posted:

The issue was also on the slide with the EU, eventually Ukraine would be integrated in a Western security structure. Euromadian started because the government was ready to drop an EU association agreement for entry in the Eurasian Union, it is about both the EU and NATO.

Ukraine joining the EU probably means another big part of its population leave for more prosperous EU countries, slashing any of its economic output and tax base launching the country into a fail cascade to be propped up by the EU or more IMF loan "financed" by more slashing of social spending.

January 6 Survivor
Jan 6, 2022

The
Nelson Mandela
of clapping
dusty old cheeks


( o(
Ukraine joining the EU is a non starter anyway because of all the stuff that would need changing (anything from institution reform to road signage) to satisfy the membership requirements, and that was before the war even started.

I mean I'm sure the EU capitalists would love nothing more than several more million people to exploit for low, low wages but here's the thing, those reforms will end up making it easier, not harder.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

January 6 Survivor posted:

Ukraine joining the EU is a non starter anyway because of all the stuff that would need changing (anything from institution reform to road signage) to satisfy the membership requirements, and that was before the war even started.

I mean I'm sure the EU capitalists would love nothing more than several more million people to exploit for low, low wages but here's the thing, those reforms will end up making it easier, not harder.
it's a non-starter because they already get all the exploitation as an imperial periphery colony and capitalists make way more having it loaded to the brim on IMF loans with stringent neoliberalism, coupled with selling off privatizing forests for cheap ikea wood and privatizing farmland for ConAgra-types to profit

it's already a turbo neoliberalized authoritarian hellhole that does likes to do genocides, so there's really no gain for formally adopting the colony into the EU

Xaris has issued a correction as of 06:06 on Nov 2, 2023

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

lol if for real https://twitter.com/CaTSnLOve4PeACe/status/1719818211951272387

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

You could say the same way Ukraine was balancing between EU and Russia, Russia was balancing between EU and China.

In both cases American involvement forced the decision.

Turns out the real domino theory is that US involvement creates bigger and bigger conflicts.

Lin-Manuel Turtle
Jul 12, 2023

fizzier posted:

乌克兰的坏消息 - 乌克兰总司令瓦列里·扎卢日尼将军表示,战场让他想起一个世纪前的伟大冲突。 “就像第一次世界大战一样,我们的技术水平已经达到了让我们陷入僵局的程度,”他说。 将军的结论是,需要巨大的技术飞跃才能打破僵局。 “很可能不会有深刻而美丽的突破。”


https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

Ukraine’s top general on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia


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Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

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