Fortaleza posted:

People going apoplectic over rat and snake emojis

projecthalaxy posted:

The twitter discourse that Buttigeig was a poc because Malta is in Africa

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

Sanders’s fuzzy math on ‘enormous jobs losses’

By Glenn Kessler

“If Congress does not act to end sequestration, we’re looking at the loss of as many as 1.4 million jobs over the next two years.”

— Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), statement in news release, Aug. 11, 2015

Sanders, an independent who’s running for the Democratic presidential nomination, appears to be creeping up on Hillary Rodham Clinton in some of the polls. But he and his staff recently engaged in some fuzzy math when they touted a letter received from the Congressional Budget Office, saying that it “projected enormous job losses for American workers” if spending caps in the 2011 Budget Control Act are not waived.

Regular readers may recall that in 2013 then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) earned Four Pinocchios for claiming that the sequester had already cut 1.6 million jobs. There seems to be something about CBO estimates that makes lawmakers forget basic math.

To Sanders’ credit, the news release included a link to the CBO letter. But it does not say what Sanders thinks it says. Let’s take a look.
The Facts

First of all, note that the Sanders’ statement says that “as many as” 1.4 million jobs would be lost. That’s a signal that a politician is using the high-end of a range.

In this case, when asked how many more people would be employed if the sequester were canceled, CBO said the impact in calendar year 2016 would be that full-time employment would be higher by between 200,000 and 800,000 people. (Note: Though the CBO was making a prediction for canceling the sequester, under its models it is acceptable to reverse the numbers for the opposite action, as Sanders did in his statement.)

The most appropriate number to pick would be the midpoint – 500,000. But Sanders chose to focus on the high end of the range, and describe each employed person as a “job.”

So how does he get to 1.4 million? That’s because CBO said the impact of canceling the sequester in calendar year 2017 would be that between 100,000 and 600,000 additional people employed. The mid-point is 300,000, but Sanders focused on 600,000. (Note: CBO set the midpoint as 300,000.)

So 800,000 plus 600,000 equals 1.4 million. Sounds like simple math, right? But it’s wrong.

Under CBO’s methodology, you can’t simply add the two figures. Each figure is distinct, relating to that time period. Many of the employed workers in 2016 would likely continue to be employed in 2017. So we are not talking about that many additional jobs. In fact, the CBO estimate suggests the impact of the sequester is waning.

Mike Casca, a spokesman for Sanders, defended the calculation by saying it referred to “job-years,” a term sometimes used to describe work on construction projects. (A construction project, for instance, might last two years and hire 1,000 workers, for a total of 2,000 job-years.)

But CBO was looking at something different: how many additional workers would have jobs if the budget caps were lifted.

The answer is between 100,000 and 600,000 by 2017, or a midpoint of 300,000. And while Sanders spoke of “enormous job losses,” that number is just ¼ of 1 percent of the total number of jobs under the CBO baseline for nationwide employment. (In fact, even with the sequester in place, the CBO projects the number of workers would climb more than 1.4 million between 2016 and 2017.)

Here’s another bit of context on those 300,000 additional workers: The U.S. economy gained nearly 450,000 employees just in the months of June and July.
The Pinocchio Test

Given this number was put in a press statement, we are going to grade it toughly. Not only did Sanders use a wildly inflated figure, but his math makes little sense. In context, and properly counted, it’s a real stretch to speak of “enormous” job losses.

There is little excuse for the senator and his staff not understanding the meaning of a letter they received from the CBO. Yes, Sanders is using a CBO document, which usually mitigates the number of Pinocchios. But he needs to learn how to read it.

(Update: The Economy Policy Institute dismissed this fact check as “bizarrely tendentious,” saying it is acceptable to use “job years” as a euphemism for jobs. And former Obama administration economic aide Jared Bernstein, writing in The Washington Post, also thinks we went too far, saying “I would have given him one Pinocchio at most.”)

Four Pinocchios

Milo and POTUS posted:

lol at the flags

ben shapino posted:

guillotine

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

he's descended from the founders of shell oil

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

he's descended from the founders of shell oil

Dr. Jerrold Coe posted:

before her anti-trump rebrand rubin used to write the most unhinged poo poo about obama being a crypto-moslem anti-colonialist who was going to destroy israel

fermun posted:

bobby jindal's response to obama's first state of the union address criticizing government spending because it included $140 million over 10 years on "something called volcano monitoring"

and it turned out that amount also included expanding seismic monitoring and building out a push-notification system for volcanoes and earthquakes

projecthalaxy posted:

The twitter discourse that Buttigeig was a poc because Malta is in Africa

quote:

“You know, you look a lot like President Bartlet,” the young man said.

President Bartlet smiled, appreciating that he’d referred to him as “President Bartlet” instead of simply “Bartlet”, showing proper respect for the office.

“I get that a lot. Are you a fan of his?”

“Oh, of course! My first vote for President was for him. His speeches were awe-inspiring, and isn’t that what the Presidency is really all about?”

“What’s your name, young man?”

“Pete Buttigieg.”

“Ah you must be Maltese. ‘Buttigieg’ from the Arabic ‘Abu-d-dajāj’, meaning chicken owner or poulterer, literally ‘father of chickens’.”

“Exactly.”

exmarx posted:

Fortaleza posted:

Whatever goofy word for guillotine the dutch use

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

i really wish conservative fever dream obama was real.

WampaLord posted:

I still remember Chris Matthews saying "Oh my God" upon watching Bobby Jindal walk towards the camera with his nerdy rear end demeanor.

And then afterwards everyone compared him to Kenneth from 30 Rock, I think they even filmed a short skit about it.

UwUnabomber posted:

Was he posting anything funny?

Dokapon Findom posted:

The announcement he recorded with his family where they clearly did not give a poo poo; his whitewashed governor's portrait.

shackleford posted:

Spergin Morlock posted:

Mitch McConnell gripping the podium, falling silent, and making a face like the monster from pans labyrinth when Ophelia eats some of the food

RandolphCarter posted:

if he’d done it during the race he would’ve won