Akratic Method posted:

I do think Putin would at least wait for the election to negotiate anything

Kestral posted:

The question is whether that’s too little, too late. Europe will keep providing, the US will probably keep providing, but they all should have been providing enormously more, and much earlier. It’s entirely possible that the utterly shameful drip-feed strategy will prove insufficient, and Ukraine will suffer (even more) gravely as a result.

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined.
If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason.

Sekenr posted:

Some news from godforsaken Belarus: They've banned live music performances in Belarus. They did not outright forbid it but they are supposed to present the tracks you want to perform to some commetee to get approved. The practical effect is that it is now second week with no live music. Its like they want a second uprising. Work sucks and now you can't even chill properly?

Its true that the most active anti-luka elements are either abroad or in jail but now they are irritating even the apolitical or pro-luka people who thought that life is good and all is right.

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined.
If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason.

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason.

Gervasius posted:

Why? What is their reasoning behind this?

Stay safe.

Burns posted:

I dont get why Isreal needs any military aid at all. They have their own MIC. They cant even deal with what is basically an insurgency?

Libluini posted:

I remember this, but that was about half a year before most of those problems were taken care off. I posted about this in the past: Germany alone will reach the EU's goal of "1 million shells per year" soon. They're set to reach approx. 600k shells in 2024 (up from approx. 400k this year) and that's for 155mm artillery shells alone. Ukraine has already received the first batches from the new factory lines for 30mm ammunition this year.

I can only conclude that your source is either too out of date, or talks about the problems in some other, smaller European country. (I'm, as a German, of course mostly concentrated on what happens over here, in Germany.)

Kyiv post posted:

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda declared Europe’s commitment to deliver a million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine’s army by mid-2024 significantly behind schedule because manufacturers haven’t been able to spin up production capacity quickly enough.
---
An information paper published by Nammo pointed to nearly non-existent European shell orders for nearly 30 years as the main cause of limited ammunition production capacity in the present. The Norwegian government’s last artillery shell order to Nammo was placed in the 1990s, the paper said. Tooling up Nammo’s 155mm shell production capacity to meet Norway’s share of Ukrainian and NATO military needs would cost the equivalent of $6.3 billion for new equipment, hiring and training, the company said.

Currently, European shell manufacturers in Spain, Germany, France, Norway, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria must split production priorities between orders from their national governments and militaries, and orders for outside customers. One of the most capable corporations, Dusseldorf-headquartered Rheinmetall, is simultaneously juggling major production runs to meet simultaneous orders from a re-arming Bundeswehr, and the German portion of the one million shell batch the EU is purchasing for Ukraine.

The Nammo report estimated that, in the short and medium term, European rearmament along with the Russo-Ukrainian war has created a 13 million continental shell deficit that will take years to close. The actual number of 155mm shells fired by the AFU in a month or year is a Ukrainian military secret. Most independent estimates place the figure at about 300,000 shells in a month of intense fighting.

Kyiv post posted:

Somewhat less than half of the AFU’s functional artillery pieces, or about 400 to 450 cannon or self-propelled guns, are thought to be NATO 155mm caliber. The greater portion of cannon and howitzers operated by the AFU, with estimates usually ranging from 600 to 800 pieces, are Soviet-standard 152mm and 122mm. Ammunition for both those legacy weapons is, according to reports, severely short across the AFU.

Only Bulgaria, among European shell manufacturers, produces the 122mm shell, but in limited quantities. Ukraine in January announced it had begun production of both munitions, however, as shortages of both rounds are still common across the AFU.

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined.
If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason.

Sekenr posted:

Some news from godforsaken Belarus: They've banned live music performances in Belarus. They did not outright forbid it but they are supposed to present the tracks you want to perform to some commetee to get approved. The practical effect is that it is now second week with no live music. Its like they want a second uprising. Work sucks and now you can't even chill properly?

Its true that the most active anti-luka elements are either abroad or in jail but now they are irritating even the apolitical or pro-luka people who thought that life is good and all is right.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Is anyone able to explain to me why there's this narrative that time is on Putin's side? To me, given losses on the Russian side not necessarily troops but equipment is quite severe and given the western economies will be able to eventually ramp up production of new equipment isn't time on Ukraine's side?

quote:

Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.

quote:

Zelensky also denied Western reports that US and European officials are pressuring Ukrainian officials to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations.

quote:

NBC added that US officials have no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia can continue its war until Western aid for Ukraine falters.

Nothingtoseehere posted:

Why would russia negotiate? Putin feels like he's in a position of strength right now.

Defenestrategy posted:

Also why would Europeans and Americans want Ukraine to settle for a peace agreement when they're still willing to fight? Horrors of war aside, "western" powers get to test all their fancy gizmos against people that can actually hit back, every piece of supply sent out is basically just money the respective countries are paying their own people, and icing on the cake petty revenge for Russia continually playing spy games in Western Europe and supporting the opposing side in places like Africa and the Middle East.

Nenonen posted:

Money invested in military aid doesn't help economic growth the same way as money invested in.....

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

what? now this is a goddamn tragedy. Minsk was the unexpectedly best concert crowd i'd ever encountered

Defenestrategy posted:

No one said it did, but putting money directly into raytheon execs hands is something the US gov cant resist, I'd imagine its the same for who ever does the equivalent for Germany, England, and France.

Sekenr posted:

I got in touch with a musician friend of mine, he is in shock. His performaces cancelled, directed me to a bar where his friends are scheduled to sing KiSh covers that are more or less pre approved.

Whst band are you in? I might have been in the crowd

Bug Squash posted:

Western nations are spending a rounding error on the war and it's having effectively zero effect on public spending. The only people claiming otherwise are the useful idiots or neo-fash allied to Russia like Le Pen.

Defenestrategy posted:

Also why would Europeans and Americans want Ukraine to settle for a peace agreement when they're still willing to fight? Horrors of war aside, "western" powers get to test all their fancy gizmos against people that can actually hit back, every piece of supply sent out is basically just money the respective countries are paying their own people, and icing on the cake petty revenge for Russia continually playing spy games in Western Europe/America and supporting the opposing side in places like Africa and the Middle East.

DTurtle posted:

I think that the MIC has a negligible impact on policy towards Ukraine. A much, much, much bigger role is played by things like refugees, gas prices, inflation, insecurity due to war, etc.

As an example, it is the most gungho, military might above all, MAGA dipshits in the US that want to stop supporting Ukraine. In Germany it is the "pro-business" party in the government coalition that is most critical of continued support for Ukraine.

Volmarias posted:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we were specifically NOT giving them the shiniest new toys, and everything they're using to hold back the Russians are the junk the US military was going to decommission or sell off anyway?

d64 posted:

This is nonsense. Finland, for example, has spent two billion or so on direct aid, which is good, but it's anything but a rounding error. Spending two billion is a very big undertaking here.

Kikas posted:

Yeah I would also add that aside from sending money, accommodating migrants has had a huge impact on housing, employment and social stuff here in Poland, I think that impact is wayyyyy past the rounding error.

nimby posted:

Populists who worry about Ukrainian refugees' impact on housing and job markets should take into consideration that if Russia gets to keep what they annexed, many of those refugees will have no home to return to. Anyone who lived near a frontline will likely not have a functional house, but there's a difference between returning to a ruin you can rebuild in a familiar (if dramatically changed) community, and your home town/city now being under a Russian authority that will not be welcoming you back.

nimby posted:

Populists who worry about Ukrainian refugees' impact on housing and job markets should take into consideration that if Russia gets to keep what they annexed, many of those refugees will have no home to return to. Anyone who lived near a frontline will likely not have a functional house, but there's a difference between returning to a ruin you can rebuild in a familiar (if dramatically changed) community, and your home town/city now being under a Russian authority that will not be welcoming you back.

The Top G posted:

What makes you say the Russian authority won’t be welcoming the Ukrainians to return? There are already over a million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and the Russian government is encouraging them to apply for Russian passports. Seems like the Russians want to assimilate the Ukrainians, not expel and cast them out.

The Top G posted:

What makes you say the Russian authority won’t be welcoming the Ukrainians to return? There are already over a million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and the Russian government is encouraging them to apply for Russian passports. Seems like the Russians want to assimilate the Ukrainians, not expel and cast them out.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Yeah, this isn't Palestinians in Israel or Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russians would dearly love for the original populace of the illegally annexed regions to return home.

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

This would be easier to adjudicate if you (re)posted your source. For reference here's a piece from three days ago that paints a pretty grim picture:

It's not just a matter of the suddenly found need for European rearmament competing with Ukrainian front for limited capacity, but also available calibre producion.

Libluini posted:

After decades of neglect, and without any big wars where at least one side wants German stuff in large numbers, that's what capitalism gets you.

But things are slowly changing now.

Rheinmetall now has their own production-line of 35mm shells and is producing at near capacity for conventional artillery shells. They expect production of artillery shells to go up from 450k (this year) to 600k next year. And while the corporation is like "international demand is high" about the question of who is buying all those 155mm shells, it's not a secret nearly all those shells are going to Ukraine.

Since the new 35mm line is now up and running, Rheinmetall expects to deliver 40-60k Gepard-shells this year, out of an already ordered 300k.

So while it took a while, considering this is the German production alone, it seems Europe can definitely support Ukraine indefinitely and in growing numbers each year. By the time Trump gets reelected, he'd have to declare war on Europe to prevent Russia from losing

Libluini posted: