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Gyges posted:Especially since we're continuing to see population concentration from rural to established urban/suburban areas. I would love to see what data you extrapolated this from. As far I remember the opposite is true, the cities with the biggest pop. increases are mostly in the south and are certainly not what any reasonable person would consider an “established urban area” quote:Following the population increase of 14.4% in Georgetown, Texas, was Santa Cruz, California, with a 12.5% increase, adding roughly 7,000 people to its population. The next three fastest-growing cities were also in Texas — Kyle, Leander, and Little Elm. Also there are no fighter jets that cost hundreds of trillions of dollars as far as I know.
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Nov 5, 2023 12:15
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Re: Why are costs of rail projects in the US so high, here’s an article that summarizes a study that’s been done: https://www.constructiondive.com/news/us-rail-projects-take-longer-cost-more-than-those-in-other-countries/605599/ Basically, lots of different factors, most that could theoretically be fixed but would be like moving a mountain. I encourage everyone to read the full article, but here are the key points: quote:U.S. rail projects take longer to complete and are more expensive than similar projects built in other countries, a new report has found. quote:Despite their lower construction costs, international projects are also often more complex than similar lines in the United States. These projects tend to have more stations built closer together than U.S. projects, run through crowded city centers and share street space with cars and other vehicles, the report said. U.S. rail projects tend to be routed along “paths of least resistance” such as freight rail* or highway corridors, rather than dense areas where transit would make the most sense for riders, according to the report. quote:The reasons for the cost and time burdens are many, the report said. U.S. public transit agencies rarely have the structure, authority or experience to deliver a major transit construction project, which requires support from local jurisdictions, the ability to acquire land as necessary, secure local permits to close streets and relocate utilities, and flexibility to hire top talent to lead the project, according to the report. Agency staff also need appropriate training in order to manage projects, construction staff and consultants, it added. *This particular point has been a major (if not primary) factor in what caused a light rail expansion in the Twin Cities to explode in cost and time delays. Instead of going through a heavily populated area (Whittier/Uptown), they decided to go along an existing freight line that goes through a narrow channel between 2 lakes. They seemed shocked when they realized they had to follow the current environmental regulations. On top of dealing with disputes with the heavy rail line owner (BNSF I think?) Kalit fucked around with this message at 13:41 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 13:33
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Seems like growing cities are the perfect place for laying rail then, still a lot easier to acquire the land than an existing metropolis, you can guide long-term development of the city so that it fits well with the rail, and a boom town will have an abundance of labor available. I'm not convinced that it would be prohibitively expensive, I mean it absolutely would if it was done under the current status quo, but a government able to implement such a sea-change in the first place would be capable of creating a state-run corporation or similar to do it efficiently and which could leverage massive economies of scale. As for some lines being unprofitable, I mean, maybe? I don't think that matters given that efficient and accessible public transportation is an essential public good. The whole point is to make it serves as many people as possible, as well as possible, not to run the largest profit possible.
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Nov 5, 2023 13:38
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People don’t want to ride the train, that admits they are poor.
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Nov 5, 2023 13:55
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Ms Adequate posted:Seems like growing cities are the perfect place for laying rail then The majority of the actual population growth is happening in mostly the suburbs (bad for mass public transit) or somewhat in the exurbs (super bad for mass public transit). This latter growth is coming mostly from people moving out of the cities. This is the exact opposite of what anyone who wants mass public transit to succeed in the US (IOW myself) to see happen!! Ms Adequate posted:a government able to implement such a sea-change in the first place would be capable of creating a state-run corporation or similar to do it efficiently and which could leverage massive economies of scale. To make the costs come down enough to make it feasible you either have to invent some sort've new combo of materials and manufacturing techniques OR somehow increase population density into the cities. Ms Adequate posted:As for some lines being unprofitable, I mean, maybe? I don't think that matters given that efficient and accessible public transportation is an essential public good. And yeah its a obvious benefit as a public good (like single payer universal healthcare or a UBI or police reform or election finance reform etc etc etc) but that doesn't count for anything within the current political and societal framework.
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Nov 5, 2023 13:57
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Is the polling thread still open? Anyway, Biden’s polling behind Trump in six swing states according to a NY Times/Siena poll. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html
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Nov 5, 2023 14:54
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is the polling thread still open? For reference, 538 gives this pollster an A rating and indicates it has a 0.2 R lean. I think it is a bit early for polling like this to be all that informative, but I won't be surprised if the election is much closer than last time given Biden's pretty lackluster job performance and the poor state of the economy. It also wouldn't be that surprising if Trump ended up ultimately winning. Edit: Also some new polling from ABC: https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1721166493776330851 B B fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 15:04
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Ms Adequate posted:
you need to have an army of people that have to know how to plan, design and build and won’t simply leave to work at a consulting company that offers 2x the salary. The issue isn’t materials or land, it’s knowledge.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:23
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:It litterally isn't sure. I was being trying to be a bit cheeky. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Passenger_mobility_statistics “The car is the dominant mode of transport in the EU, with less than 2 persons on average per car” And in 2021 the average riders in a given european car was .57 The US transit system needs changed but there is no obvious Thing everyone else does
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Nov 5, 2023 15:31
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Just fyi the idea that Europe is train heaven is overblown. I think it’s obvious that vanishingly few countries are going to have trains be the main and only method of transport but in Europe car ownership rates are a tiny fraction of what they are here in the US, cars are not as colossally huge and expensive as they are in the US, and relative to the US Europe’s passenger and commuter rail networks leave the our clunky and aging infrastructure behind in the dust.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:39
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is the polling thread still open? This would have worried me pre-midterms, but not now. Not only is this suggesting a Trump popular vote win, but Republicans keep underperforming in special elections by 11 points, which are a better indicator one year out than polls. The people who turned out in 2022 aren't going to suddenly stay home because it's Biden and not... *checks notes* Abigail Spanberger. I'm just wondering why the polls are so off, as they were in 2022. Edit: underperforming by 11 points. small butter fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 15:40
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Just fyi the idea that Europe is train heaven is overblown. I've been to a lot of places and the only place that actually is the way people think Europe is with regards to trains is probably Singapore. Turns out if you charge 6 figures to register a car, cars are pretty rare.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:41
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is the polling thread still open? An all-telephone poll with a +/-4.4 to 4.8 margin strikes me as being…just not great. On the other hand, it gives us an opportunity to begin my favorite part of election news coverage: watching news outlets give national non-stop coverage to people genuinely excited to vote for Donald Trump for President of the United States. quote:“The world is falling apart under Biden…I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.” quote:“I don’t think [Biden]’s the right guy to go toe to toe with these other world leaders that don’t respect him or fear him” quote:“You can’t be worse than Trump. But then as the years go by, things happen with inflation, the war going on in Ukraine, recently Israel and I guess our borders are not secure at all.”
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Nov 5, 2023 15:41
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small butter posted:This would have worried me pre-midterms, but not now. Not only is this suggesting a Trump popular vote win, but Republican keep underperforming special elections, which are a better indicator one year out than polls. The people who turned out in 2022 aren't going to suddenly stay home because it's Biden and not... *checks notes* Abigail Spanberger. No one under 55 answers their phones to random phone numbers anymore, which is where a lot of pollsters were still getting their polling information from random cold calls.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:43
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I dunno. If I was planning to overthrow the government few things I might want to do is flood the media with polls saying my side was actually popular and winning. I’d aslo try to make sure there was no coherent senior military leadership to oppose me. Maybe by denying them promotions.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:44
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is the polling thread still open? Additional horrifying context https://x.com/ettingermentum/status/1721169467315474854?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA
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Nov 5, 2023 16:31
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davecrazy posted:I dunno. If I was planning to overthrow the government few things I might want to do is flood the media with polls saying my side was actually popular and winning. I’d aslo try to make sure there was no coherent senior military leadership to oppose me. Maybe by denying them promotions. How would you corrupt the multiple independent polling firms in a way that it never leaks that you’re successfully doing so?
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Nov 5, 2023 16:33
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davecrazy posted:I dunno. If I was planning to overthrow the government few things I might want to do is flood the media with polls saying my side was actually popular and winning. I’d aslo try to make sure there was no coherent senior military leadership to oppose me. Maybe by denying them promotions. Things being horrible doesn't require a vast conspiracy. It just requires apathy, and we've got plenty of that to go around.
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Nov 5, 2023 16:34
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Combed Thunderclap posted:An all-telephone poll with a +/-4.4 to 4.8 margin strikes me as being…just not great. I also don't want to whistle past the graveyard here, I went on 538 and Biden is tied or ahead in some of these states as well. Which isn't GREAT but this could be an outlier poll too.
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Nov 5, 2023 17:23
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How is Trump up by 5 in Michigan when Dems just won a trifecta there less than a year ago? e: Democrats won everything by comfortable margins, too: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/michigan And +11 in Nevada almost makes even less sense. I don't think polls are completely useless or anything but we're a year out from the election still. Queering Wheel fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 17:34
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Biden support cratering everywhere but somehow increasing in Wisconsin compared to 2020 is, as the kids say, sus.
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Nov 5, 2023 17:40
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I think that this much focus and worry spent on a voluntary phone poll a year before the election before either candidate has even begun actively campaigning is more a sign of our collective under-reported trauma from 2016 than anything resembling proper analysis, tbh.
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Nov 5, 2023 17:46
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It's a year out and other indications (like special elections) are better for Democrats than polls. The polls just aren't going to tell you much, no matter how good the pollster is.
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Nov 5, 2023 17:51
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When is the last time polls were accurate? 2016 maybe had some accurate ones (that people ignored)?
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Nov 5, 2023 18:00
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The biggest indicator of how Dems are going to do next year are some of the statewide races coming up shortly. So far they have been overperforming in special elections compared to Biden's margins in 2020. We'll see if that continues.
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Nov 5, 2023 18:06
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James Garfield posted:It's a year out and other indications (like special elections) are better for Democrats than polls. The polls just aren't going to tell you much, no matter how good the pollster is. Speaking of which, how are things going in Virginia right now?
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Nov 5, 2023 18:12
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Yeah, it's kind of serendipitous that we have these super major elections coming up in VA and OH this week, at the apparent bottom of Biden's popularity, so we can see if people's feelings about Biden are pushing votes one way or another. That could shine a lot of light on how seriously we should take polls like this (or any poll) over the next year.
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Nov 5, 2023 18:40
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Here are results from some of NYT/Siena's final 2022 election polling: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587045620258377728 Here are the actual results from these races: AZ Senate Results Dem - 51.39 Rep - 46.51 PA Senate Results Dem - 51.2 Rep - 46.3 GA Senate Results Dem - 49.44 Rep - 48.49 NV Senate Results Dem - 48.81 Rep - 48.04 In my opinion, NYT/Siena seems to know what they are doing with their polling. As one of the Pod Jon's points out, polls a year out aren't completely worthless: https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1721208097073762671 B B fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 18:57
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Queering Wheel posted:How is Trump up by 5 in Michigan when Dems just won a trifecta there less than a year ago? There is a large Muslim population in Michigan, particularly in the population centers. There was an article recently that said he's lost something like 40 points of support amongst that voting bloc. Biden doesn't seem to realize that this is a critical constituency, in this state that he has to win, apparently, by continuing to offer nothing but support for Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza.
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Nov 5, 2023 19:11
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Polls don't matter, until there is a singular outlier that lets me poo poo on my enemies only those matter.
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Nov 5, 2023 19:14
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Many of the cities aren't growing and the few that are have been getting marginal growth for a long time now. Some are shrinking in population. I was just taking what BUUNNI said a couple posts above mine and responding, but what you say definitely makes sense. quote:Its not a maybe. Its a majority of them. At least with current population densities in the US. Sure, but that's why I implied doing it at all would require such a sea change in policy that we can pretty much bake in the assumption that it's being done for reasons other than corporate profit.
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Nov 5, 2023 19:33
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rolling back to electoralism talk, as unrealistic of a result this could be, it would send helluva message if enough "I'm not voting for Biden because Palestinian genocide" types still voted (but not for Biden) and Biden loses but Dems win the house/keep the senate. In many ways very suboptimal in a domestic policy sense compared to Biden snagging a (slim) trifecta but also much preferable in a domestic policy sense compared to Biden losing and dems also losing congress. actually I can see that happening with at least the Muslims that are justifiably pissed off at Biden, especially the ones in Tlaib's district since she's one of the few in congress willing to speak up against Israel's actions so they'd wanna keep her in. Digamma-F-Wau fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 20:33
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Digamma-F-Wau posted:rolling back to electoralism talk, as unrealistic of a result this could be, it would send helluva message if enough "I'm not voting for Biden because Palestinian genocide" types still voted (but not for Biden) and Biden loses but Dems win the house/keep the senate. In many ways very suboptimal in a domestic policy sense compared to Biden snagging a (slim) trifecta but also much preferable in a domestic policy sense compared to Biden losing and dems also losing congress. Meh. Remember what happened when Dems started losing support among Latinos? They learned the "we gotta get more racist" lesson and we got bombarded with think pieces about how Latinos loved Trump because of all their hot-blooded toxic machismo and for no other reason whatsoever.
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Nov 5, 2023 20:42
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Eric Cantonese posted:Speaking of which, how are things going in Virginia right now? There’s also the amendment vote for abortion in Ohio. Y’all might remember that this is the one where republicans tried to change the threshold for it to pass in a special ballot measure earlier this year, and got roundly brutalized in the process.
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Nov 5, 2023 20:47
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I do think Dems would be doing a lot worse right now if Roe v Wade hadn't been overturned. That drove a lot more people to the polls in what should have been a bad election for the incumbent party in 2022.
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Nov 5, 2023 20:53
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socialsecurity posted:Polls don't matter, until there is a singular outlier that lets me poo poo on my enemies only those matter. I'm very concerned about sample sizes, polling methods and and response rates, but only if they return results I don't like.
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Nov 5, 2023 20:58
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I feel these polls are a little bit skewed, someone should do something about that
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Nov 5, 2023 20:58
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the_steve posted:we got bombarded with think pieces about how Latinos loved Trump because of all their hot-blooded toxic machismo and for no other reason whatsoever. I don't remember those think pieces, though i don't doubt you. I remember reading articles in '17 analyzing the qanon disinfo stuff and noting that a concerted effort was made (by the prig-bannon alliance, collusion between IRA and Cambridge Analytica) to push conspiracy stuff in spanish language social media, particularly targetting florida, from about '14 onward. I would wager that at least one early thinkpiece (of those you describe) were conceived by bannon and signal boosted by the IRA as an active effort to muddy the waters. Uglycat fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 21:00
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April 2023 - "You're insane for looking at polls a year and a half out of the election." Nov 2023 - "Polls a year out from the election are completely worthless." Feb 2024 - "No one is paying attention to the election yet, it's not a big deal that Trump is up 8." May 2024 - "So what if Biden is down 12, things will be fine after the summer and the election is on people's minds." August 2024 - "Trump up 20 is just proof that you have to unskew the polls, the media just wants it to be a close race." October 2024 - "Just because two swing states have already been called for Trump doesn't mean it's over for Biden, he just has to win this very specific scenario." Jan 21, 2025 - "I have always loved the Trumpenreich, he is the most greatest president ever and the most perfect boy God ever create..." ::door slams on the gas chamber all LGBTQ+ and minorities are sentenced to upon Trump's first executive order.
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Nov 5, 2023 21:02
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FlamingLiberal posted:I do think Dems would be doing a lot worse right now if Roe v Wade hadn't been overturned. That drove a lot more people to the polls in what should have been a bad election for the incumbent party in 2022. In general Democrats would do a lot worse if things like "the courts matter a lot," and "every Republican victory changes your life for the worse," were not true, Roe is just a manifestation of those which is both huge and difficult to effectively whitewash as anything else no matter how many "How could RBG do this?" counterarguments are made.
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Nov 5, 2023 21:07
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