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ex post facho posted:There is a large Muslim population in Michigan, particularly in the population centers. There was an article recently that said he's lost something like 40 points of support amongst that voting bloc. Muslims are ~2% of the population in Michigan. Even if all of them switched from Biden to Trump that would only imply a 4% change, not the 8% swing that poll is indicating (from Biden +3 to Trump +5). Realistically only a fraction of the Muslim population will change their vote because of I/P, and an even smaller subset would vote for Trump rather than just abstaining. Personally I don’t see the impact from that being more than 1% or so. That obviously would matter in a close race, so I’m not completely discounting it, but it doesn’t come close to explaining that poll. Either there’s been a seismic shift in the electorate since 2020, or that poll is an outlier. I would wait until we are closer to the election and we have more data points before getting worried.
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Nov 5, 2023 21:10
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B B posted:In my opinion, NYT/Siena seems to know what they are doing with their polling. Those are Final polls though not one year out, haven’t even started the primaries polls. It’s almost like that makes a huge difference!
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Nov 5, 2023 21:35
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Those are Final polls though not one year out, haven’t even started the primaries polls. Sure it does. But they're a good pollster, and those numbers very well may reflect where the race stands today. There's a lot of time between now and election day for the Democratic Party to reverse these sorts of trends, but they should absolutely be worried by those numbers.
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Nov 5, 2023 21:41
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I get why it sounds unskewy to people but the whole "polls aren't predictive this far out" isn't just some old chestnut, there's genuinely a very poor statistical correlation between polls a year from an election and the actual results. This is a rematch, so maybe it's different but people aren't just making that up.
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Nov 5, 2023 21:49
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:I think that this much focus and worry spent on a voluntary phone poll a year before the election before either candidate has even begun actively campaigning is more a sign of our collective under-reported trauma from 2016 than anything resembling proper analysis, tbh. I love how crazy it is that we increasingly have no new way to poll to replace the ways that don't work anymore without several trips to an all inclusive data massaging spa
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Nov 5, 2023 21:53
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AKA Pseudonym posted:I get why it sounds unskewy to people but the whole "polls aren't predictive this far out" isn't just some old chestnut, there's genuinely a very poor statistical correlation between polls a year from an election and the actual results. This is a rematch, so maybe it's different but people aren't just making that up. Agreed. Voters are goldfish. They're going to remember the most recent thing that happened. If, a week before the election, the FBI comes out and says they're going to investigate Biden's emails or if US troops managed to kill the King of Terrorism, that's going to be what people have in mind when they pull the lever. Obviously this isn't applicable to the people who have already made up their minds, but for anyone who is on the fence, they're going to go off of the most recent thing to have been in the news.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:00
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I just feel like it's uniquely pointless to be paying any mind to polling when there is absolutely no way to predict how the multiple criminal and civil proceedings against one of the candidates will shake out over the next year. Hell Trump might not even be on the ballot in some states, though I personally regard that as highly unlikely because I am almost certain his SCOTUS will make sure he is, it's not totally impossible. Colorado doesn't matter because it's blue and Trump taking Minnesota is a long shot, but if he's not on the ballot in even a single battleground state his job gets immeasurably harder. Again I emphasize that I regard this as incredibly unlikely and I am almost certain he'll be running in 50 states, but I am trying to illustrate that we sure do live in times.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:01
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B B posted:Sure it does. But they're a good pollster, and those numbers very well may reflect where the race stands today. There's a lot of time between now and election day for the Democratic Party to reverse these sorts of trends, but they should absolutely be worried by those numbers. Right how did the 538 polls for 2022 look in 2021? lol it’s not like one can easy find that anymore. Search engines suck now.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:16
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If it so happens that Biden loses a close race because of democrats’ love of Israel, I think the most likely outcome is a months-long scolding of arabs and leftists for being ungrateful and throwing the vulnerable to the wolves, which fades by midterms. When have democrats ever listened to public opinion where public opinion departs from maintaining the status quo? I guess Biden tried student loan forgiveness.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:16
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I AM GRANDO posted:If it so happens that Biden loses a close race because of democrats’ love of Israel, I think the most likely outcome is a months-long scolding of arabs and leftists for being ungrateful and throwing the vulnerable to the wolves, which fades by midterms. When have democrats ever listened to public opinion where public opinion departs from maintaining the status quo? I guess Biden tried student loan forgiveness. Why are we pretending the # of votes lost from supporting Israel is even close to the # lost from not? Like it's hosed up but the Pro-Israel lobby/voting bloc is very organized, not that it should stop Biden from doing the actual right thing here.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:19
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I AM GRANDO posted:If it so happens that Biden loses a close race because of democrats’ love of Israel, I think the most likely outcome is a months-long scolding of arabs and leftists for being ungrateful and throwing the vulnerable to the wolves, which fades by midterms. When have democrats ever listened to public opinion where public opinion departs from maintaining the status quo? I guess Biden tried student loan forgiveness. Afghanistan, the border wall, FTC suits against major tech companies, gun control EOs, cannabis posession pardons, drug price negotiations through federal programs?
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Nov 5, 2023 22:21
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It's not like the loan thing is a past-tense "Tried" either, millions of people have had loans forgiven through the channels that are legally available, and there's a second swing coming up to do more within the bounds of the current Congress and courts after the easiest route got shut down. https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/11/4/23944041/biden-student-loan-debt-relief-new-plan-scotus It's became supremely uninteresting to a lot of people once the "he could do this at a stroke of a pen" turned out not to be true.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:29
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For a vast proportion of debtors, the reforms to the system (most notably capping repayments at a teeny percentage of discretionary income for however many years before you're eligible for regular forgiveness) also may as well be loan forgiveness. I'd file that as a pretty kept promise even before the next bite at the apple or, if we're lucky, any future legislation.socialsecurity posted:Why are we pretending the # of votes lost from supporting Israel is even close to the # lost from not? Like it's hosed up but the Pro-Israel lobby/voting bloc is very organized, not that it should stop Biden from doing the actual right thing here. I'm honestly almost hoping in some ways that the doomsayers are right and supporting Israel is a vote loser and not a vote winner. Yes, it's bad for 2024 and by extension for all of us, but the alternative says some very uncomfortable things about the American/Democratic electorate.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:44
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Ms Adequate posted:I just feel like it's uniquely pointless to be paying any mind to polling when there is absolutely no way to predict how the multiple criminal and civil proceedings against one of the candidates will shake out over the next year. The only part of this that will hurt him is actually not being on the ballot in multiple swing states. Otherwise it’s in his favor
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Nov 5, 2023 22:48
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Israel just isn't going to be a major issue in 2024. Every four years pundits write thinkpieces about how foreign policy is going to decide the election this time, and they're always wrong.B B posted:Sure it does. But they're a good pollster, and those numbers very well may reflect where the race stands today. There's a lot of time between now and election day for the Democratic Party to reverse these sorts of trends, but they should absolutely be worried by those numbers. "Polls a year before the election have little predictive value" doesn't mean the polls are wrong. If I flip a coin to predict the outcome of the 2024 election, it has a 50% chance to be right, but I don't get any new information from doing it. People don't think Biden is doing better than the polls imply because they reweighted the polls to find out that he was actually leading, there are other types of evidence like special elections that are more favorable to Democrats.
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Nov 5, 2023 22:58
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Eric Cantonese posted:I got a little criticized for this before, but I think the combination of inflation and the effects of interest rates is a big drag on Biden. He's in the hot seat now and he gets the blame whether or not that's totally warranted. I don't think it's losing the plot as much as Biden having to pay for the struggles people are going through. Whatever matters to the Paul Krugmans of the world as they tell you the big picture isn't necessarily going to help everyday voters with big grievances. Are people actually paying attention to Trump's campaign rally speeches though and how clearly he's spiraling and just rambling and seems to have completely lost the plot as to the actual issues out there? To me he's way more of a hot mess than Biden has been anywhere in public lately and doesn't even seem capable of delivering for MAGA let alone the American people at large. Also you know he's gonna be busy with all his trials for a while now and the big one still looms large in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. If he's found guilty and then still elected and even wins Georgia this time then I don't see how democracy can survive in the United States at that point.
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Nov 5, 2023 23:47
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haveblue posted:I feel these polls are a little bit skewed, someone should do something about that There's either something wrong with the polls or there's something wrong with all the other data points that show Democrats ahead. There's no way around this. The data points showing Democrats winning: 1. Consistently overperforming in special elections by an average margin of +11 since the start of the year: https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703 Special election results are strongly correlated with winning the upcoming election. 2. Adding to the Senate, governorships, and state legislatures, while barely losing the House during unprecedented inflation, the stock market making new lows, and economy scaremongering in 2022 Previous midterm results are strongly correleated with winning the upcoming election. 3. Incumbency advantage Incumbents typically win their election. 4. Trump lost in 2020 Previous election losers have only gone on once to win the general. Trump was kicked out the first time for a reason. 5. Trump's many indictments which may lead to a guilty verdict next year 6. Polls have been underestimating Democrats this entire cycle, from special elections that Democrats demolished to their 2022 midterm results 7. Democrats have been on a roll since 2018 8. The current polls suggest Trump winning the popular vote, which is extremely unlikely 9. House chaos that will not get any better The data points showing Republicans winning: 1. Polls showing Trump ahead 2. Some of the above is specific to Democrats and not Biden Am I missing anything from either list?
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Nov 5, 2023 23:48
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Kale posted:Are people actually paying attention to Trump's campaign rally speeches though and how clearly he's spiraling and just rambling and seems to have completely lost the plot as to the actual issues out there? To me he's way more of a hot mess than Biden has been anywhere in public lately and doesn't even seem capable of delivering for MAGA let alone the American people at large. So.... they are exactly the same as when he won? (and to be fair, lost)
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Nov 5, 2023 23:48
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Lumpy posted:So.... they are exactly the same as when he won? (and to be fair, lost) No, they're actually getting worse and there's been reporting on it. Trump is older and under legal pressure like never before. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/us/politics/trump-biden-age.html
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Nov 5, 2023 23:50
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ex post facho posted:There is a large Muslim population in Michigan, particularly in the population centers. There was an article recently that said he's lost something like 40 points of support amongst that voting bloc. I have been hearing he's getting killed recently on the Muslim vote based on the decision to offer total absolute unquestionable 100% support to Netanyahu and Israel no matter what yeah. I would hope his strategists and counsel are having him reconsider that stance in light of it's deep unpopularity among that voting bloc. Then again it's absolutely baffling to me that the Muslim population would even consider Trump again in the wake of his early actions like the Muslim travel ban among other things. Lumpy posted:So.... they are exactly the same as when he won? (and to be fair, lost) He used to be at least somewhat able to stick to the message (albeit a terrible one) and work his base masterfully at rallies, but these days he seems low energy and like he's just going through the motions and can hardly be bothered. He seems tired, disinterested in the idea of having to campaign for a third time, and just wants to skip to the part where he would be president again and be able to get revenge on his enemies. Can barely pretend this campaign is about anything else other than revenge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldxkR-DVgzA Like we're very close to getting this sort of performance in a debate when asked a question about prospective policy and goals for a theoretical second administration, if we haven't basically already. That said I doubt his base really gives a solitary poo poo whether he knows the difference between Hamas and Hummus. Kale fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Nov 6, 2023 |
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Nov 6, 2023 00:01
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I AM GRANDO posted:If it so happens that Biden loses a close race because of democrats’ love of Israel, I think the most likely outcome is a months-long scolding of arabs and leftists for being ungrateful and throwing the vulnerable to the wolves, which fades by midterms. When have democrats ever listened to public opinion where public opinion departs from maintaining the status quo? I guess Biden tried student loan forgiveness. If he actually loses because of this I think you're right, but I think the confidence people feel about saying they won't vote Biden a year from now is not going to be borne out in the results when they think "huh, do I want Donald loving Trump to have another crack at it?" ^^^ yeah, these thoughts are along the same lines as the ones I'm having
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Nov 6, 2023 00:03
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Eletriarnation posted:If he actually loses because of this I think you're right, but I think the confidence people feel about saying they won't vote Biden a year from now is not going to be borne out in the results when they think "huh, do I want Donald loving Trump to have another crack at it?" They may also just stay home, or vote on the rest of the ticket but leave the presidential portion blank. It's not unheard of.
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Nov 6, 2023 00:05
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Eletriarnation posted:If he actually loses because of this I think you're right, but I think the confidence people feel about saying they won't vote Biden a year from now is not going to be borne out in the results when they think "huh, do I want Donald loving Trump to have another crack at it?" This is what will happen, exactly. While Biden will probably lose some Muslim support, it's a choice between a Democrat who supports Israel and a Republican who supports Israel. Except this is the Republican who did the Muslim ban and called you a terrorist. One thousand things will happen between now and then, some of these wounds will heal, and in the end, one choice is clearly better than the other.
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Nov 6, 2023 00:30
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Kale posted:I have been hearing he's getting killed recently on the Muslim vote based on the decision to offer total absolute unquestionable 100% support to Netanyahu and Israel no matter what yeah. I would hope his strategists and counsel are having him reconsider that stance in light of it's deep unpopularity among that voting bloc. It's a tradeoff. He's pissing off Arab voters, but there's plenty of other important constituencies that greatly approve of his stance on Israel. Here's one example from the AP: https://apnews.com/article/south-florida-jews-israel-politics-biden-israel-hamas-5dde5353f7b06659809d122b57fa0e8b quote:Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war is a political test in South Florida’s Jewish community Not only is this a significantly-sized group in a swing state that strongly supports pro-Israel stuff, but they're also far more willing to shift rightward if spurned, and in fact have already been doing so.
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Nov 6, 2023 00:50
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Main Paineframe posted:It's a tradeoff. He's pissing off Arab voters, but there's plenty of other important constituencies that greatly approve of his stance on Israel. Here's one example from the AP: Is Florida still a swing state? I don't hear about it as one anymore.
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Nov 6, 2023 00:57
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Kale posted:I have been hearing he's getting killed recently on the Muslim vote based on the decision to offer total absolute unquestionable 100% support to Netanyahu and Israel no matter what yeah. I would hope his strategists and counsel are having him reconsider that stance in light of it's deep unpopularity among that voting bloc. They dont have to vote for Trump, they can just stay home and point to the fact that a lot more a lot more Palestinians died from American bombs under Biden than died under Trump. I think the Biden team's whole idea of "yeah genocide is bad but I'm sure Muslim voters will just get over it in a year" is kinda gross.
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Nov 6, 2023 01:08
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Is Florida still a swing state? I don't hear about it as one anymore.
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Nov 6, 2023 01:27
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once the republicans take the legislature they lock states red.
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Nov 6, 2023 02:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:once the republicans take the legislature they lock states red. Floridas red status isn’t a result of gerrymandering, it’s legitimately gotten more conservative in the last decade. Just look at the statewide elections. A dem hasn’t won a statewide election there since 2012. Obama won it by less than a percent in 2012, then in 2016 it went Trump +1, and in 2020 it was Trump +3. DeSantis won by 20 points in 2022 and that was against a former Republican.
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Nov 6, 2023 02:18
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 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 6, 2023 02:49
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socialsecurity posted:Why are we pretending the # of votes lost from supporting Israel is even close to the # lost from not? Like it's hosed up but the Pro-Israel lobby/voting bloc is very organized, not that it should stop Biden from doing the actual right thing here. Yeah I have no doubt Biden will lose some votes for his support of Israel but he would lose way way more if he didn't do so. Not to mention the incredible amount of money the Israel and related lobbies could put to work against him. I'm not saying he made a good or right decision to be clear just that either way he will lose votes but one is much bigger than the other.
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Nov 6, 2023 02:58
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Discendo Vox posted:Afghanistan, the border wall, FTC suits against major tech companies, gun control EOs, cannabis posession pardons, drug price negotiations through federal programs? Yeah, I forgot about the prescription drug thing. That was really good.
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Nov 6, 2023 03:03
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Seph posted:Floridas red status isn’t a result of gerrymandering, it’s legitimately gotten more conservative in the last decade. Just look at the statewide elections. A dem hasn’t won a statewide election there since 2012. Obama won it by less than a percent in 2012, then in 2016 it went Trump +1, and in 2020 it was Trump +3. DeSantis won by 20 points in 2022 and that was against a former Republican. there is something to be said for the dems in florida being particularly incompetent, but even with a party that wasn't a bunch of imbeciles, the rate of boomer retiree immigration into florida by itself probably means florida is lost for a generation.
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Nov 6, 2023 03:49
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Main Paineframe posted:It's a tradeoff. He's pissing off Arab voters, but there's plenty of other important constituencies that greatly approve of his stance on Israel. Here's one example from the AP: It's a poo poo tradeoff sacrificing Michigan to see about winning back Florida.
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Nov 6, 2023 03:57
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I think people are justifiably concerned about polls for 2024 because we aren't sure if there's going to be a 2028 if we can't get this one to go our way.
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Nov 6, 2023 04:04
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cr0y posted:I think people are justifiably concerned about polls for 2024 because we aren't sure if there's going to be a 2028 if we can't get this one to go our way. This is most certainly the most important election of our lifetime, just like the last one, the next one, and the one after that. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 6, 2023 04:09
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Polls have proven to be worthless in recent years. It's baffling to see so much concern over poll results (especially ones with such a high margin of error) a full year before the election, before anyone is paying attention.
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Nov 6, 2023 04:13
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Biden has been relatively unpopular since he announced his campaign in 2019. He's the "best we've got, I guess" candidate, and the base has been asking if there isn't anyone else his whole term. So of course a year out his numbers are poo poo and everyone is thinking about whether or not he even deserves their vote. The polls are probably accurate for the event that we had a snap election today. And we're in the same boat we've been in since 2016, where the Democratic candidate is one of the very few people who could actually lose to Donald Trump. However we're not voting today, and a whole lot of insane poo poo can happen between now and November 24. The 2020s are interesting times and we're all cursed. What the polls are telling us is that Biden hasn't become a better candidate via good Presidenting, and we need to be vigilant. They don't tell us that Donnie's back with a power up. So, right now, we're looking at essentially a redo of 2020. Biden hasn't gained ground, and right now he's dealing with events that would be a significant drag if they're still occuring in a year. However the next year is looking real bad for Trump, and all his offerings are being redirected to his defense. Right now sucks for Biden, next year appears to be headed towards a better position. Hopefully 2028 sees the DNC getting their head out their rear end.
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Nov 6, 2023 05:05
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In the year 2024, where no one picks up a phone to a random number, let alone pick up the phone period due to dogshit telecommunications laws. No one is responding to these things other than lonely old people. In terms of actually knowing what the public wants, I imagine it's similar to what key words they say around their iPhones that's then sold to Google ads. I'm surprised anyone even takes polls seriously anymore. It's gone the way of the dinosaur.
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Nov 6, 2023 05:10
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B B posted:This is most certainly the most important election of our lifetime, just like the last one, the next one, and the one after that. On the other hand, the Washington Post reported today about how the Trump team is considering invoking the insurrection act on Day 1 so the military can put down the expected protests. https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-mulling-deploying-military-to-streets-on-day-1-if-elected-report-says?ref=home
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Nov 6, 2023 05:41
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