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Akratic Method posted:I do think Putin would at least wait for the election to negotiate anything was really reading this as being about the 2024 russian presidential elections and being thoroughly confused like, i mean sure, putin wants his usual turnout-based legitimacy demonstration, but not that much
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 08:56 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:55 |
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Kestral posted:The question is whether that’s too little, too late. Europe will keep providing, the US will probably keep providing, but they all should have been providing enormously more, and much earlier. It’s entirely possible that the utterly shameful drip-feed strategy will prove insufficient, and Ukraine will suffer (even more) gravely as a result. I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined. If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 12:37 |
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined. I find it hard to imagine that Ukraine would actually, willing accede to Russian annexation of this territory for the simple reason that open conquest of neighbour's territory by a hostile power has not been accepted basically anywhere since the end of World War 2, look at something like the Golan Heights in Syria or the intractable territorial dispute over Kashmir, or more recently relevant the entire Israeli-Palestinian crisis and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Not least because the Ukrainian population will probably immediately vote out any politician who makes such a thing official. That leads to long term issues for both countries, supposing this hot war ends, what stops Ukraine from spending the next decade trying to flare up and support guerrilla resistance in the occupied territories and revanchist political parties in support of such a thing? I can already almost guarantee that a political candidate making some argument that they lost 100,000 brave men trying to restore Ukraine's borders before getting backstabbed by politicians and fickle western allies will emerge in such a context and similarly, Russia will have its work cut out for it if there is continued unrest on the seized territory, especially if Ukrainian politics is increasingly and openly hostile towards Russia. Like, again, this is a monster of Putin's own making. There's basically no way that a moderate or even pro-Russian political movement will have prominence in Ukraine ever again after all of this which is a far cry from how things used to be. It will probably be at best a permanent standoff and at worst just slide into another war at some point further down the line.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 13:25 |
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Some news from godforsaken Belarus: They've banned live music performances in Belarus. They did not outright forbid it but they are supposed to present the tracks you want to perform to some commetee to get approved. The practical effect is that it is now second week with no live music. Its like they want a second uprising. Work sucks and now you can't even chill properly? Its true that the most active anti-luka elements are either abroad or in jail but now they are irritating even the apolitical or pro-luka people who thought that life is good and all is right.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 13:42 |
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Sekenr posted:Some news from godforsaken Belarus: They've banned live music performances in Belarus. They did not outright forbid it but they are supposed to present the tracks you want to perform to some commetee to get approved. The practical effect is that it is now second week with no live music. Its like they want a second uprising. Work sucks and now you can't even chill properly? Why? What is their reasoning behind this? Stay safe.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 13:53 |
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined. I just can't imagine all 20+ NATO states agreeing to a Ukraine membership if it secedes so much land to Russia in a peace treaty. The danger of revanchist policies and political instability dragging Europe's conscripted kids into a trench war with a nuclear power is just too big. You could get some countries on board, but not everyone. Seems more like the plan for Ukraine would be to go full Maginot line 2.0 and try to delay the next Russian invasion as long as possible(and hope that weapon deliveries and financial aid from the west keeps flowing). Russia has made very little progress in the Donbas presumably because Ukraine spent 8 years properly fortifying that front.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 14:58 |
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:If I was a betting man, I'd say negotiations eventually end up with Russia keeping what they've got, and Ukraine joining NATO. But I don't gamble for a reason. Ukraine will never join NATO without the original borders being restored. NATO doesn't accept countries with active border conflicts (and thats with normal countries, not nuclear armed ones!). While Ukraine will need to join NATO for their long term security, it will not happen any time soon.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 15:46 |
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Gervasius posted:Why? What is their reasoning behind this? There is no reasoning. It is a policy of control everything and you cannot stop even the dumbest of decisions otherwise you are a traitor. If you must know. Some dumbfuck came up with the idea. Noone dared oppose it, because how does it help you personally? Can our beaurocracy handle it without pissing off the population? Of course, because only the opposition will shittalk our effecient government. Thus is how the dumbest decisions are being made. This kind of reminds me of the previous minister of the interior. He wanted to leave his post so much that he started to act erratic. He got into a fight with British embassy about a rainbow flag they hung. He overstepped, this is foreign ministry turf, foreign minister was a powerful man back than (he commited suicide about a year ago), didn't get him fired. He than ordered the city of Minsk to stop selling alcohol after 22.00. This order lasted less than 24 hours, luka personally stepped in, overruled the order, fired the dude and made him the chairman of writers union. The fucker even grew a beard
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 16:03 |
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Burns posted:I dont get why Isreal needs any military aid at all. They have their own MIC. They cant even deal with what is basically an insurgency? They can, but they probably can't deal with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran simultaneously. The US doesn't have two carrier battle groups in the Mediterranean to deal with Hamas. They're there to dissuade Iran from widening the war between Hamas and Israel.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 16:11 |
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Libluini posted:I remember this, but that was about half a year before most of those problems were taken care off. I posted about this in the past: Germany alone will reach the EU's goal of "1 million shells per year" soon. They're set to reach approx. 600k shells in 2024 (up from approx. 400k this year) and that's for 155mm artillery shells alone. Ukraine has already received the first batches from the new factory lines for 30mm ammunition this year. This would be easier to adjudicate if you (re)posted your source. For reference here's a piece from three days ago that paints a pretty grim picture: Kyiv post posted:Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda declared Europe’s commitment to deliver a million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine’s army by mid-2024 significantly behind schedule because manufacturers haven’t been able to spin up production capacity quickly enough. It's not just a matter of the suddenly found need for European rearmament competing with Ukrainian front for limited capacity, but also available calibre producion. Kyiv post posted:Somewhat less than half of the AFU’s functional artillery pieces, or about 400 to 450 cannon or self-propelled guns, are thought to be NATO 155mm caliber. The greater portion of cannon and howitzers operated by the AFU, with estimates usually ranging from 600 to 800 pieces, are Soviet-standard 152mm and 122mm. Ammunition for both those legacy weapons is, according to reports, severely short across the AFU.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 16:12 |
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I think this too. The time to make a real difference is long past. The Russians are too dug in, the occupied areas are too heavily mined. Zaluzhnyi addresses this directly in his recent essay. You can read it here
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 16:33 |
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Sekenr posted:Some news from godforsaken Belarus: They've banned live music performances in Belarus. They did not outright forbid it but they are supposed to present the tracks you want to perform to some commetee to get approved. The practical effect is that it is now second week with no live music. Its like they want a second uprising. Work sucks and now you can't even chill properly? what? now this is a goddamn tragedy. Minsk was the unexpectedly best concert crowd i'd ever encountered
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 17:07 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Is anyone able to explain to me why there's this narrative that time is on Putin's side? To me, given losses on the Russian side not necessarily troops but equipment is quite severe and given the western economies will be able to eventually ramp up production of new equipment isn't time on Ukraine's side? Every month putin stays at war continues immense generational damage to his entire country and ensures that he will have left russia in a thoroughly imploded condition. Like you start having to wonder if the long term picture (like after the war and putin and all that) the country can even hold together or if it will fracture But time is still technically on his side because he doesn't give a flying gently caress about all that, he just cares about, you know, staying in power. So he can technically make a situation which is on "his side" in that he's super 100% willing to grind russia's future to dust over multiple years in pursuit of literally just exhausting a smaller country, works as long as he sufficiently lobotomized the rest of the government enough to be unable to coup him, and he doesn't have a heart attack or something But even then there's certain poo poo which does make "time is on his side" extremely arguable, like troop training and artillery supply
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 17:47 |
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Interesting summary from https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2023quote:Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate. quote:Zelensky also denied Western reports that US and European officials are pressuring Ukrainian officials to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations. quote:NBC added that US officials have no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia can continue its war until Western aid for Ukraine falters.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 18:21 |
Why would russia negotiate? Putin feels like he's in a position of strength right now.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 19:46 |
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Why would russia negotiate? Putin feels like he's in a position of strength right now. Also why would Europeans and Americans want Ukraine to settle for a peace agreement when they're still willing to fight? Horrors of war aside, "western" powers get to test all their fancy gizmos against people that can actually hit back, every piece of supply sent out is basically just money the respective countries are paying their own people, and icing on the cake petty revenge for Russia continually playing spy games in Western Europe/America and supporting the opposing side in places like Africa and the Middle East.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 20:30 |
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Defenestrategy posted:Also why would Europeans and Americans want Ukraine to settle for a peace agreement when they're still willing to fight? Horrors of war aside, "western" powers get to test all their fancy gizmos against people that can actually hit back, every piece of supply sent out is basically just money the respective countries are paying their own people, and icing on the cake petty revenge for Russia continually playing spy games in Western Europe and supporting the opposing side in places like Africa and the Middle East. Money invested in military aid doesn't help economic growth the same way as money invested in housing, infrastructure and everything else where you actually build new stuff needed in your economy. Plus there's various reasons why a peace would be overall good, such as allowing refugees to return and rebuilding to begin, opening of sea lanes for grain shipments, etc. The reason why it's not preferable is because Russia is still occupying a sizeable chunk of Ukrainian lands and wants more and it's unlikely that a lasting peace can be reached from that premise. Letting Putin rebuild his tank forces for round 2 five years from now doesn't sound like a good idea.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 20:39 |
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Russia still lays claim to territories that have either been liberated by Ukraine or Russia could never conquer in the first place. Besides, previous Ukrainian governments already signed agreements with Russia and we all know how that went. Neither side is gonna negotiate until all other options have been exhausted.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 20:46 |
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Western nations are spending a rounding error on the war and it's having effectively zero effect on public spending. The only people claiming otherwise are the useful idiots or neo-fash allied to Russia like Le Pen.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 20:48 |
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Nenonen posted:Money invested in military aid doesn't help economic growth the same way as money invested in..... No one said it did, but putting money directly into raytheon execs hands is something the US gov cant resist, I'd imagine its the same for who ever does the equivalent for Germany, England, and France.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 20:53 |
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:what? now this is a goddamn tragedy. Minsk was the unexpectedly best concert crowd i'd ever encountered I got in touch with a musician friend of mine, he is in shock. His performaces cancelled, directed me to a bar where his friends are scheduled to sing KiSh covers that are more or less pre approved. Whst band are you in? I might have been in the crowd
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 21:00 |
Defenestrategy posted:No one said it did, but putting money directly into raytheon execs hands is something the US gov cant resist, I'd imagine its the same for who ever does the equivalent for Germany, England, and France. As an example, it is the most gungho, military might above all, MAGA dipshits in the US that want to stop supporting Ukraine. In Germany it is the "pro-business" party in the government coalition that is most critical of continued support for Ukraine.
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# ? Nov 5, 2023 22:50 |
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Sekenr posted:I got in touch with a musician friend of mine, he is in shock. His performaces cancelled, directed me to a bar where his friends are scheduled to sing KiSh covers that are more or less pre approved. i live in the US and am not in a band lol, i came over because there was inexplicably a Петля Пристрастия album release and ГШ tour passing through in the same week circa 2018 i think you actually invited me to hang out but i never got around to responding because i am a horribly disorganized goon ed: it feels kinda on brand for the regime to ban music as the former was preparing to finally release a Belarusian language album. i suppose i did want an excuse to visit Lithuania Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Nov 5, 2023 |
# ? Nov 5, 2023 22:52 |
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Bug Squash posted:Western nations are spending a rounding error on the war and it's having effectively zero effect on public spending. The only people claiming otherwise are the useful idiots or neo-fash allied to Russia like Le Pen.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 00:15 |
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Defenestrategy posted:Also why would Europeans and Americans want Ukraine to settle for a peace agreement when they're still willing to fight? Horrors of war aside, "western" powers get to test all their fancy gizmos against people that can actually hit back, every piece of supply sent out is basically just money the respective countries are paying their own people, and icing on the cake petty revenge for Russia continually playing spy games in Western Europe/America and supporting the opposing side in places like Africa and the Middle East. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we were specifically NOT giving them the shiniest new toys, and everything they're using to hold back the Russians are the junk the US military was going to decommission or sell off anyway? At least in the form of visible forms of aid, I have to imagine that we're committing a significant amount of non public intelligence resources.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 01:04 |
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It's some of each, although the US in particular has generally tried to give Ukrainians more capable systems that have some life left in them rather than stuff that was literally at the end of its usable life. Other things, like some of the AD systems, GMLRS (what HIMARS fire, predominately), various other PGMs that have been exceptionally impactful over the last year, javelins and other modern AT systems have mostly been current gen or upgraded last generation. In particular Ukraine has received a lot of very good guided munitions. The Bradleys that Ukraine received were a relatively recent variant, as well.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Nov 6, 2023 |
# ? Nov 6, 2023 01:32 |
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DTurtle posted:I think that the MIC has a negligible impact on policy towards Ukraine. A much, much, much bigger role is played by things like refugees, gas prices, inflation, insecurity due to war, etc. Might have spoken out of turn for the Europeans, but the MIC definitely has a sway in US politics. The MIC, employ a fairly significant amount of decently paying jobs in various states and usually ends up with 40ish percent of the entire DOD budget spent on them, and if you look at what GOP congress is doing McConnel[R-Turtle] and his whip have both stated their support for Ukraine, and to my knowledge there's no significant outward resistance in the Senate to Ukraine Aid Packages. On the house side, there's some anti-Ukraine sentiment from the usual suspects, but the new GOP Speaker said they want to do a US Boarder-Ukraine Aid thing, which tells me at least that they're cynically just using Ukraine to feed more red meat to their base, more money for red states to spend on the boarder and to build missiles/ammo/whatever. So while yes, they may not pass "give ukraine all the aid they need fy2023" they'll probably pass a bill that includes a bunch of stupid poo poo with ukraine aid attached. Volmarias posted:Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we were specifically NOT giving them the shiniest new toys, and everything they're using to hold back the Russians are the junk the US military was going to decommission or sell off anyway? The last time we[America] actually used a lot of our "toys" against what could reasonably called an opposing army was Desert Storm. All the stuff we gave away might be twenty years old, but it never had to deal with lack of air cover, an artillery and airforce that can hit back, high level intelligence, etc,etc No we haven't sent whatever scifi poo poo darpa has to Ukraine, but stuff like HIMARS[est. 2010] hasn't been deployed in a near peer conflict. Heck it's even a proving ground for older systems that have seen some of that like Patriot, just to see if Russia has stuff in the can they can do stuff with.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 01:38 |
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d64 posted:This is nonsense. Finland, for example, has spent two billion or so on direct aid, which is good, but it's anything but a rounding error. Spending two billion is a very big undertaking here. The comment I was addressing was mostly about the very large countries like France and the US, where it very much is a rounding error but still have the usual carnival of ghouls agitating against it. Hats off to Finland for this though.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 10:56 |
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Yeah I would also add that aside from sending money, accommodating migrants has had a huge impact on housing, employment and social stuff here in Poland, I think that impact is wayyyyy past the rounding error. I do not mean that it is a bad thing and we should lock borders or send people back, just to be clear. It's just that the impact of that shouldn't be ignored, but the exact numbers are really hard to measure. Especially since most of those things are, uh, not the most important for either government?
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 11:08 |
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Kikas posted:Yeah I would also add that aside from sending money, accommodating migrants has had a huge impact on housing, employment and social stuff here in Poland, I think that impact is wayyyyy past the rounding error. Populists who worry about Ukrainian refugees' impact on housing and job markets should take into consideration that if Russia gets to keep what they annexed, many of those refugees will have no home to return to. Anyone who lived near a frontline will likely not have a functional house, but there's a difference between returning to a ruin you can rebuild in a familiar (if dramatically changed) community, and your home town/city now being under a Russian authority that will not be welcoming you back.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 11:43 |
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nimby posted:Populists who worry about Ukrainian refugees' impact on housing and job markets should take into consideration that if Russia gets to keep what they annexed, many of those refugees will have no home to return to. Anyone who lived near a frontline will likely not have a functional house, but there's a difference between returning to a ruin you can rebuild in a familiar (if dramatically changed) community, and your home town/city now being under a Russian authority that will not be welcoming you back. What makes you say the Russian authority won’t be welcoming the Ukrainians to return? There are already over a million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and the Russian government is encouraging them to apply for Russian passports. Seems like the Russians want to assimilate the Ukrainians, not expel and cast them out.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 12:14 |
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nimby posted:Populists who worry about Ukrainian refugees' impact on housing and job markets should take into consideration that if Russia gets to keep what they annexed, many of those refugees will have no home to return to. Anyone who lived near a frontline will likely not have a functional house, but there's a difference between returning to a ruin you can rebuild in a familiar (if dramatically changed) community, and your home town/city now being under a Russian authority that will not be welcoming you back. Either way they are probably better off not living in a minefield, those areas are gonna be very dangerous to be living in for the next decades.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 12:26 |
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The Top G posted:What makes you say the Russian authority won’t be welcoming the Ukrainians to return? There are already over a million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and the Russian government is encouraging them to apply for Russian passports. Seems like the Russians want to assimilate the Ukrainians, not expel and cast them out. I think Russia is more than happy to assimilate Ukrainians as long as they accept as part of their assimilation that they are actually poor deluded Russians. This has been stated a number of times by Russian politicians seeking to erase the entire concept of Ukraine/Ukrainian national identity. If you're a Ukrainian refugee who's not happy with this state of affairs, I don't think you're going to be very welcome if you tried to return to Russia-occupied parts of Ukraine (except in a torture chamber somewhere).
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 12:32 |
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The Top G posted:What makes you say the Russian authority won’t be welcoming the Ukrainians to return? There are already over a million Ukrainian refugees in Russia and the Russian government is encouraging them to apply for Russian passports. Seems like the Russians want to assimilate the Ukrainians, not expel and cast them out. Yeah, this isn't Palestinians in Israel or Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russians would dearly love for the original populace of the illegally annexed regions to return home.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 12:35 |
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Yeah, this isn't Palestinians in Israel or Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russians would dearly love for the original populace of the illegally annexed regions to return home. Wut? Russian nationalists want a subjugated Ukrainian population that knows their place as being under 'real' Russians. Not to mention they want the newly taken lands to be ethnically Russian, so they have solid claim on them. Couple that with potentially a violent resistance movement, and you have the ingredients of a very oppressive situation for Ukrainians in Russia.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:49 |
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Yeah, like the did with Crimea. You can just look there to see how Russia will act once any kind of treaty is signed. Hell, we even had reports of them doing it now!
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:54 |
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The thing is the Russian government doesn't treat Russians all that well to begin with, generally speaking. But if a Ukrainian can prove they are sufficiently Russian, they will absolutely be treated as such. It's not like they completely disregard the existence of a Ukrainian identity, it's more that they think that it can only be expressed as part of the Russian identity. You can be a Russian from Novgorod, you can be a Russian from Omsk, or you can be a Russian from Mariupol. You will be allowed to have your own local folk songs, costumes, and slang/dialect. Heck, if you're from the right region, you can even be Russian and Muslim! Russians are supposed to be the Soviet people 2.0, a multicultural society united by the Russian cultural core that is viewed as neutral. From reading comments in some Russian tg channels, among their audience, there is a bias against even those on occupied territories who are loyal to Russia. They are often viewed as too needy and too ungrateful. When a Russian from Siberia sees propaganda on TV about how Mariupol is being quickly rebuilt and people there get new flats for free, while their tiny town is still 50% condemned Stalin era shacks, they obviously have some dark thoughts. But it's the same as tensions between Moscow and the periphery, it's not motivated by ethnicity necessarily.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:43 |
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Of course, that's not gonna stop them from stealing the property and sending in settlers.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:50 |
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:This would be easier to adjudicate if you (re)posted your source. For reference here's a piece from three days ago that paints a pretty grim picture: I'm just gonna re-post my old post then, including source: Libluini posted:After decades of neglect, and without any big wars where at least one side wants German stuff in large numbers, that's what capitalism gets you. After searching a bit more, I also found this Süddeutsche-article talking about the German success in organizing more ammunition production for the German Gepard-tank we supplied Ukraine with, among other things. From reading the article you've linked, it seems we're just looking at the same thing from different angles. Lithuanian's president sees things pessimistically, but from a German viewpoint, the most important ammunition production (35mm and 155mm) is up and continuing to go up. And because we Germans love talking about ourselves, it seems German media ignored problems in tiny, unimportant lands like Norway. Anyway, point is with Germany alone closing in on reaching the promised level of shell production by next year, things look exceedingly bad for Russia. That some of the 27 nations of the EU can't magically poo poo out new shells is obvious, but the wonderful thing about the EU is: They don't need to. If it turns out e.g. France and Germany alone have to pull this off because the other nations are too hosed to even do the minimum, so be it.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 18:51 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:55 |
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As much poo poo as I've given Germany itt over the years, if American continues to balk at its moral responsibilities in 2024 I expect you to give poo poo to my country in turn. Germany getting it's 155mm production up is a huge deal. I wonder how many Gepard platforms are also being produced? I haven't seen anything about that one way or the other.
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# ? Nov 6, 2023 18:55 |