USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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JosefStalinator: Oct 9, 2007; Come Tbilisi if you want to live.; Grimey Drawer

Main Paineframe posted:

It's a tradeoff. He's pissing off Arab voters, but there's plenty of other important constituencies that greatly approve of his stance on Israel. Here's one example from the AP:

https://apnews.com/article/south-florida-jews-israel-politics-biden-israel-hamas-5dde5353f7b06659809d122b57fa0e8b

Not only is this a significantly-sized group in a swing state that strongly supports pro-Israel stuff, but they're also far more willing to shift rightward if spurned, and in fact have already been doing so.

Wonderful, another group Democrats will bend over backwards for, and who will end up voting GOP anyway.

Buckwheat Sings posted:

In the year 2024, where no one picks up a phone to a random number, let alone pick up the phone period due to dogshit telecommunications laws.

No one is responding to these things other than lonely old people. In terms of actually knowing what the public wants, I imagine it's similar to what key words they say around their iPhones that's then sold to Google ads.

I'm surprised anyone even takes polls seriously anymore. It's gone the way of the dinosaur.

Stabbey_the_Clown posted:

Polls have proven to be worthless in recent years. It's baffling to see so much concern over poll results (especially ones with such a high margin of error) a full year before the election, before anyone is paying attention.

Not sure why people like to just shitpost about how POLLS DONT MATTER LOL when it's literally a thing you can measure and observe the error of.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 05:54

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# ? May 25, 2024 16:22

Stabbey_the_Clown: Sep 21, 2002; Are... are you quite sure you really want to say that?; Taco Defender

JosefStalinator posted:

Not sure why people like to just shitpost about how POLLS DONT MATTER LOL when it's literally a thing you can measure and observe the error of.

Is it within the final 21 days of the 2024 Presidential Election?

# ? Nov 6, 2023 06:06

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

And if you actually read the 538 graphic that came from, it's a much less rosey picture of polls in that they are pretty good at predicting who wins when races are >3 points apart and not that great for much else. Though if the point was that polls were historically only ok and continue to be kinda ok, that's pretty valid.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 06:12

Foxfire_: Nov 8, 2010

Gyges posted:

Biden has been relatively unpopular since he announced his campaign in 2019. He's the "best we've got, I guess" candidate, and the base has been asking if there isn't anyone else his whole term. So of course a year out his numbers are poo poo and everyone is thinking about whether or not he even deserves their vote.

I think this take is a bit skewed by left/online bubble. Biden's primary campaign won by him being overwhelmingly preferred by Black voters in South Carolina, then locking up most states on Super Tuesday. The platonically maximally electable candidate is probably younger, but probably not dramatically more left.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 07:02

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Foxfire_ posted:

I think this take is a bit skewed by left/online bubble. Biden's primary campaign won by him being overwhelmingly preferred by Black voters in South Carolina, then locking up most states on Super Tuesday. The platonically maximally electable candidate is probably younger, but probably not dramatically more left.

I'm not arguing a specifically ideological side. Everyone coalesced around the guy who they believed/were told could beat Trump. And immediately started asking if anyone younger/healthier could run in 24. Ideological differences exacerbate the issue, sure. However a large part of the Democrats have been saying there should be another candidate for the last 3 years.

Edit:Quick googling polls didn't give me a trend line, but September of this year and July of last year had polls showing 60+% of Democrats wanting anybody, but nobody specifically, else.

Gyges fucked around with this message at 07:51 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 07:11

I AM GRANDO: Aug 20, 2006

America is a pretty conservative place. Biden won partially because he said some pretty conservative stuff in the primaries. The no UHC stuff sticks out in my memory as something that put Biden apart from the Mayo Petes disingenuously trying to triangulate between what people want and what his donors would allow.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 07:18

Ms Adequate: Oct 30, 2011; Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

The only part of this that will hurt him is actually not being on the ballot in multiple swing states. Otherwise it’s in his favor

That seems like a bold claim. It'll definitely help keep his supporters fired up but every bit of evidence of wrongdoing is going to help fire up everyone else and remind them that even if they hate Biden, there's a very convincing argument to hold their nose and vote for him. To say nothing of the general impediment to campaigning that multiple criminal trials will pose (Sure he'll still be able to make some rallies, but will it be as many? Will he be as effective at them, when we can already see he's faltering?) and also to say nothing of the possible outcomes - and possible sentences - that may result before the next election.

It's totally possible that the whole thing ends up helping him. It's also totally possible that he ends up getting his teeth kicked in so bad that Mondale rises from the grave to personally thank him. We're in totally uncharted territory in this regard and it's pretty premature to declare that anything will definitely help or hinder over the coming year.

Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Nov 7, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 09:09

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

Gyges posted:

the Democratic candidate is one of the very few people who could actually lose to Donald Trump.

I don't understand why people still think this after Trump's complete domination of the 2024 GOP primary. We don't like what it says about the country, but he's clearly just as "good" to people on the right, and to a lot of apolitical people, as anybody else, and has just as good of a chance against anybody. Continuing to attribute Trump's popularity to the alleged unpopularity of his opponents really ignores what he is doing "right" in terms of getting Americans on his side. Which, I don't know what it is. But I am pretty sure it's past time for "can you believe these CLOWNS can't beat Trump?" and time to start to wonder why so few clowns are able to beat Trump.

JosefStalinator posted:

Wonderful, another group Democrats will bend over backwards for, and who will end up voting GOP anyway.]

Do people not understand the concept of a "no-win situation"? I'd love, love, love to see the world where Joe Biden reacts to the war in Israel in a way that doesn't hurt his popularity. If you want to argue against how he has supported Israel, I'm totally there with you, but can people stop pretending "this is an easy political situation, that could have been spun to Biden's advantage by doing what I, specifically, wanted"?

# ? Nov 6, 2023 12:34

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

This guy thinks that it's the most important election of our lifetimes.

I haven't seen much attention paid to this "loss and damages" fund that was recently created, which is a mechanism for developed countries to subsidize the green development of countries that are "skipping over" the heavily carbonized phase of their economic growth. Seems incredibly important for getting resistant players like India to cooperate, as well as emerging African economies.

Michael Mann (famous climate researcher, the "hockey stick graph" guy) posted:

In The Hill

Back in the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election, I stated that a second Trump term would be �game over for the climate.� That hasn�t changed in the years since. In fact, it�s become even more true.

We are three years further down the carbon emissions highway, and the devastating consequences of the 1C (1.8F) warming we have already caused are now apparent in the form of unprecedented dangerous, damaging and deadly extreme weather events. As yet, we have not taken the exit ramp needed to avoid a far worse planetary warming of 1.5C (3F).

...

What is needed for further progress? For one, developing countries must also agree to ramp down emissions � a last-minute holdout by India was an obstacle to a more aggressive agreement at COP26. But diplomacy and leadership by the U.S. is required to make that happen.

Consider what happened during the Obama era. Stymied by Republicans in Congress, President Obama nonetheless used his executive authority to promote incentives for renewable energy and tighter emissions restrictions on polluters, bringing China to the table and achieving a bilateral agreement that set the stage for the successful Paris summit. China ended up exceeding its commitments and began decommissioning coal-fired power plants.

But that all came to an abrupt halt with Trump. When he was elected, he turned over the reins of our government to fossil fuel interests and promised � and eventually made good on � a unilateral pullout from the Paris climate agreement. That signaled to other countries, like China and India, that the U.S. was no longer willing to keep up its end of the bargain, and in turn, they slacked off in their own efforts.

It is clear that the U.S. must lead � and that when we do, other nations join us.

What does leadership mean here? As the world�s largest cumulative carbon polluter, an average effort won�t cut it. We have an obligation to achieve something closer to 60 percent reductions in emissions by 2030. The climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, if fully implemented � and not blocked by GOP-stacked courts � get us only partly there (around 40 percent). We will need further climate legislation � and a president and Congress willing to pass it.

Leadership also means helping out other nations that have had a far lesser role in creating the climate crisis and are already suffering the consequences. While the 2022 COP27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh was disappointing from the standpoint of decarbonization, it did pave the way for progress at COP28 next month in Dubai by establishing a historic loss and damage fund.

Critical to getting countries like India to do more is getting industrial nations, like the U.S., to provide funding and assistance to poorer nations to help them both deal with the devastating consequences they are already experiencing and to encourage them to leapfrog past fossil fuels to clean energy as they seek economic development. That�s what the �loss and damage� agreement does, and it could lead to a greater willingness by India and other developing countries to ramp up their own commitments to decarbonization.

All of this progress is in jeopardy, however, if Trump wins the presidency again, particularly if Republicans hold or, worse, expand their control of Congress. Congressional Republicans have already indicated their intent to eliminate loss and damage funds. And this speaks to an even larger problem. While we have seen renewed leadership on climate by the Biden administration, other nations are wary of what a second Trump presidency could portend, particularly on climate where they fear he will refuse to honor our commitments to the rest of the world and derail four years of progress on climate.

The GOP has threatened to weaponize a potential second Trump term against domestic climate action. In the event they also keep the House of Representatives and retake the U.S. Senate, they will fast-track the most climate-averse policy agenda in the history of our nation to be signed into law by Trump.

Republicans have already written a climate plan for a prospective second Trump term with the innocuous title �Project 2025.� This radical plan would block efforts underway to scale up renewable energy and create a clean energy grid. It would defund climate programs at the Environmental Protection Agency and clean energy efforts at the Department of Energy. It would also bar other states from adopting California�s clean energy policies and put the fossil fuel industry fox in the environmental henhouse by turning over regulation of polluters to Republican state legislatures.

So, we are truly at a �fragile moment.� Global climate action lies on a knife edge, hinging upon American leadership that is threatened by a prospective Trump second term and a radicalized GOP intent on undermining climate progress both here and abroad.

It is not an overstatement to say, one year out, that we face an American election unlike any other. It will determine not only the course of the American experiment but the path that civilization collectively follows. On the left is democracy and environmental stewardship. On the right is fascism and planetary devastation. Choose wisely.

Considering that the clock ticks louder every day on the climate, and that the problem still isn't fixed, I don't see any reason we should really find the idea of each election being more important than the last ridiculous.

Reminder that the most consequential election of our lifetimes, 2000, was the one where everybody made jokes about how little it mattered for the entire campaign. There's not really anything good that can come out of minimizing a presidential election.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:02

i am a moron: Nov 12, 2020; "I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

I�m sure the guy that lost the popular vote twice to very suspect Dem candidates and then pulled a J6 on the way out of office and has been electoral poison every time he gets involved in literally anything is actually in pole position for this next election :jerkbag:

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:09

SpeakSlow: May 17, 2004; by Fluffdaddy

i am a moron posted:

I’m sure the guy that lost the popular vote twice to very suspect Dem candidates and then pulled a J6 on the way out of office and has been electoral poison every time he gets involved in literally anything is actually in pole position for this next election

What's that one movie with the talking puppies?

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:35

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

i am a moron posted:

I�m sure the guy that lost the popular vote twice to very suspect Dem candidates and then pulled a J6 on the way out of office and has been electoral poison every time he gets involved in literally anything is actually in pole position for this next election

Yeah, I mean, you can't just completely discount the poll because it does reflect actual problems Biden has politically, but I find it pretty hard to imagine that Trump, who has never cracked 47%, is going to win the popular vote by a margin 2.5 percentage points larger than any Republican since 1988. I think most people who are insisting that this poll is actually reflective of where things will be in a year would not be willing to put down any money on Trump winning by more than three points, or possibly on him winning the popular vote at all.

At the very least, we can be very sure that Biden is going to get more than 44% - the worst a Democratic candidate has done since the three-way '92 election is 48.2% (Hillary, with Gore and Kerry barely higher). Many people are still refusing to say "Biden" in polls out of some hope that they will have some other choice - a fantasy the media is aggressively feeding into by running constant stories about his age and potential primary challengers (who do not show any actual interest in challenging him. And no Dean Phillips does not count).

If Biden is alive and healthy in a year he is going to get more than 44% and very likely more than 48%, going by history. Is he really that much less popular than Hillary Clinton? C'mon.

e: Deadlines for filing for some major primaries are this month and I think the media might just be making one last big final push to get Biden to drop out, which they would clearly prefer so they can get a more "exciting" candidate and a hot-war Democratic primary to drive up ratings and clicks and rake in cash.

Like, okay, the poll is bad for Biden, no question, but there are a LOT of polls, and he leads in a lot of them - so ask yourself, why is this one getting so much attention? Especially when relatively few people would argue it represents a likely final result?

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 14:03 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:40

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

James Garfield posted:

Israel just isn't going to be a major issue in 2024. Every four years pundits write thinkpieces about how foreign policy is going to decide the election this time, and they're always wrong.

We didn't even collectively give a poo poo about the Afghanistan collapse for more than like a month and that was literally us. Another Israel Crisis gonna be a blip in the rear view mirror by then

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:47

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

Staluigi posted:

We didn't even collectively give a poo poo about the Afghanistan collapse for more than like a month and that was literally us. Another Israel Crisis gonna be a blip in the rear view mirror by then

Yeah, it's pretty hard to imagine an American election being decided by foreign policy issues. Even in 2004 people tend to cite the big Republican homophobia push and the swift boat nonsense as being more decisive than Bush's war record. (Bush's 2004 strategy has been dubbed "fears, smears and queers.")

Like, yes, the Israeli war could have an impact if it was happening right at election time, particularly in the Arab community, but the story would also be getting much, much less attention if the general election was tomorrow, because there would be a zillion other narratives flying around, about things that have more direct impact on Americans' day-to-day lives.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 13:59

i am a moron: Nov 12, 2020; "I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

Misunderstood posted:

e: Deadlines for filing for some major primaries are this month and I think the media might just be making one last big final push to get Biden to drop out, which they would clearly prefer so they can get a more "exciting" candidate and a hot-war Democratic primary to drive up ratings and clicks and rake in cash.

Front page of CNN right now: TRUMP HEADS TO TRIAL with a picture of him and Joe Biden side by side. I have a hard time believing people are buying into this poo poo anymore.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:10

SimonChris: Apr 24, 2008; The Baron's daughter is missing, and you are the man to find her. No problem. With your inexhaustible arsenal of hard-boiled similes, there is nothing you can't handle.; Grimey Drawer

WarpedLichen posted:

And if you actually read the 538 graphic that came from, it's a much less rosey picture of polls in that they are pretty good at predicting who wins when races are >3 points apart and not that great for much else. Though if the point was that polls were historically only ok and continue to be kinda ok, that's pretty valid.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

3 points is the statistical margin of error, so that's to be expected. Any race within three points is a toss-up. The point is that polls are as accurate as they have ever been, not that they are flawless.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:15

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Also in 2011 Obama reached his lowest popularity, around 40% and then 2012 rolled around and it shot up again. At least according to Gallup.

This isn't to say the Biden or the Democratic Party should think this is in the bag. It just means that polls can mean all sorts of different things at different points of the year.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:16

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

SimonChris posted:

3 points is the statistical margin of error, so that's to be expected. Any race within three points is a toss-up. The point is that polls are as accurate as they have ever been, not that they are flawless.

Yes, and I think the unreliability of polls is often overstated, but the "within 21 days of an election" qualifier, when we are 366 days from the election, makes the data in this specific poll just a tad less useless than "totally useless."

Bad polls are worse news for Biden every day than they were the day before, because the election isn't getting any further away, but there is still aways to go before a bad poll is a cause for panic.

e: I wasn't nervous about Biden's approval rebounding before the election until the late summer, which was when Reagan's approval (which had bottomed out even lower than Joe's) started to improve in 1983 before he dominated 1984. Instead, it seems like people are just getting even grumpier, and the media is still absolutely addicted to analyzing public opinion polls, with the scientific goal of precisely quantifying how much everybody hates Joe Biden, rather than covering, you know, the news.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:18

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Mooseontheloose posted:

Also in 2011 Obama reached his lowest popularity, around 40% and then 2012 rolled around and it shot up again. At least according to Gallup.

This isn't to say the Biden or the Democratic Party should think this is in the bag. It just means that polls can mean all sorts of different things at different points of the year.

Yeah it's sortof normal for the three year mark to be the popularity low point for a 1st term president. Three years of "tried to do x, got y instead" adding up and no campaigning yet to balance it out.

What I'm saying is Joe needs to legalize it next Halloween

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:20

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

What I'm saying is Joe needs to legalize it next Halloween

There are so many things that seem like, even if you are unlikely to accomplish them, you have a lot to gain by forcing Republicans to argue against them. Legalizin' it is one.

One I think they are totally sleeping on is impeaching Clarence Thomas. He has clearly done enough to deserve it, and there is no way to defend what he's done without looking like an rear end in a top hat, and the whole story draws attention to the direct, disproportionate influence billionaires have on the government and the GOP especially.

That said Biden has been willing to hold his cards close to his chest before - remember that in 2022 he didn't announce student loan forgiveness until just a few months before the election, and his big climate bill he worked out with Manchin had probably been sitting in the docket ready to go for months before it suddenly materialized in the public eye within days, late in the cycle. It's very possible that actions on these are coming, it's just been determined that their impact would be better saved for campaign season.

That said, you can dig yourself a hole you can't get out of. People can develop impressions that they can't be convinced out of. For that reason, Biden should probably try to make some kind of play to get some positive attention right now, if that's even possible. It's all well and good to save things for October '24 but if everybody hates you by then it might not be enough.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:27

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Misunderstood posted:

There are so many things that seem like, even if you are unlikely to accomplish them, you have a lot to gain by forcing Republicans to argue against them. Legalizin' it is one.

One I think they are totally sleeping on is impeaching Clarence Thomas. He has clearly done enough to deserve it, and there is no way to defend what he's done without looking like an rear end in a top hat, and the whole story draws attention to the direct, disproportionate influence billionaires have on the government and the GOP especially.

That said Biden has been willing to hold his cards close to his chest before - remember that in 2022 he didn't announce student loan forgiveness until just a few months before the election, and his big climate bill he worked out with Manchin had probably been sitting in the docket ready to go for months before it suddenly materialized in the public eye within days, late in the cycle. It's very possible that actions on these are coming, it's just been determined that their impact would be better saved for campaign season.

That said, you can dig yourself a hole you can't get out of. People can develop impressions that they can't be convinced out of. For that reason, Biden should probably try to make some kind of play to get some positive attention right now, if that's even possible. It's all well and good to save things for October '24 but if everybody hates you by then it might not be enough.

I think any impeachment of anyone in government starts in the House, not the Senate, so impeachment is a complete non-starter while Republicans control the house. I guess Dems can make a lot of noise about doing it if they regain power, but that's all they're going to be able to do.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:33

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

Well, they certainly aren't going to be able to impeach him without a majority, and I suppose they wouldn't even be able to get a vote on it while Republicans control the Speakership. But I think they should at least go out and argue that it should be done. Maybe it would be possible for Republicans to ignore, but if they started getting asked questions about it, it could put them in an awkward situation. As it is, nobody is even using the i-word.

At some point they should at least give it a shot; I don't see what it could hurt. People don't like the Court and Thomas was possibly the least popular Justice even before his current scandals.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:41

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Huh, I'm just hearing about how Elvis's cousin seems to be putting up a legitimate challenge to Reeves in the MS governor's race. Any hope for him tomorrow?

The last poll I see has Reeves up by only 1 point, but that is a partisan poll...

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:49

BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

Strange watching a lot of people contorting themselves into the position that there's no way Trump wins again.

There's a lot to dislike about Joe Biden and he doesn't inspire anybody even on a good day. I actually think Hillary was a better candidate in most ways and she lost. Trump is viewed as a god by a huge percentage of his base and even a larger percentage of the electorate at large in ways that are demonstrably insane. Both he and Biden have huge disapproval ratings but the difference is that, in Trump's case, a lot of that is offset by absolutely huge, cult-like devotion.

Trump absolutely CAN win and, right now, I'm putting his chances at roughly 50/50 which, in a mentally healthy country, would be impossible.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:58

kdrudy: Sep 19, 2009

That poll this far from the election is at most a thing to keep an eye on, not something to doom out over.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:58

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Kalit posted:

Huh, I'm just hearing about how Elvis's cousin seems to be putting up a legitimate challenge to Reeves in the MS governor's race. Any hope for him tomorrow?

The last poll I see has Reeves up by only 1 point, but that is a partisan poll...

If anyone had a chance in Mississippi it�d be Elvis� cousin.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:58

FLIPADELPHIA: Apr 27, 2007; Heavy Shit; Grimey Drawer

The nightmare scenario for me is Biden croaking and we end up with President Harris before the election. She has no charisma and the combined misogyny and racism, combined with the general feeling that she would be foisted upon us rather than chosen, would in my opinion be enough to let Trump win fairly easily due to depressed democratic turnout.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 14:59

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

Skimming the polling history as a whole, rather than one specific poll, I see RealClearPolitics lists eight polls last month where Biden was in the lead, five where Trump was in the lead, and five where the two were essentially tied. Rather than getting caught up on one poll which could be an outlier, we should look at multiple polls to see the general trend.

I looked at the 538 poll list too, but it's completely loving bonkers so I don't think it's worthwhile. I don't know what the gently caress is wrong with pollsters' methodology this time around, but I do know that there's no loving way in hell third-parties are actually getting >18% of the vote. Hell, one of the polls on these shows RFK Jr. getting a whopping 22% of the vote, or RFK Jr. and West getting a combined 25%. It's just not happening.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:05

i am a moron: Nov 12, 2020; "I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

BiggerBoat posted:

Strange watching a lot of people contorting themselves into the position that there's no way Trump wins again.

There's a lot to dislike about Joe Biden and he doesn't inspire anybody even on a good day. I actually think Hillary was a better candidate in most ways and she lost. Trump is viewed as a god by a huge percentage of his base and even a larger percentage of the electorate at large in ways that are demonstrably insane. Both he and Biden have huge disapproval ratings but the difference is that, in Trump's case, a lot of that is offset by absolutely huge, cult-like devotion.

Trump absolutely CAN win and, right now, I'm putting his chances at roughly 50/50 which, in a mentally healthy country, would be impossible.

Obviously it happened once and because our country is loving stupid it really comes down to the EC. But also absolutely nothing has transpired since to actually make him more electable (he�s probably guaranteed he can�t win GA anymore for example) so I sincerely doubt any noise being made right now.

Edit: four years of old people, the only group these polls reach reliably dying at a higher clip than usual and four more years of youth votes hardened almost entirely against the GOP. Math isn�t going to work out for them come election time.

i am a moron fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:11

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

BiggerBoat posted:

Strange watching a lot of people contorting themselves into the position that there's no way Trump wins again.

I mean, who said that? "This poll doesn't mean all that much and is not reason for panic" is not the same thing as saying "Trump can't win" or "no poll will ever mean much."

quote:

Both [Trump] and Biden have huge disapproval ratings but the difference is that, in Trump's case, a lot of that is offset by absolutely huge, cult-like devotion.

That's true, but that's somewhat offset by the fact that the disapproval of Trump is generally stronger (i.e., would be expressed as "strongly disapprove" rather than "somewhat disapprove," on surveys where they are given a choice.) That is to say, there are likely more people who rate Biden unfavorably but would be willing to vote for him anyway than is the case with Trump. (In 2016, voters who disapproved of both candidates went heavily to Trump, in 2020 they went heavily to Biden. Let's hope that that is a "Biden vs. Trump" thing and not an "alternating elections" thing... but given that a lot of apolitical/ignorant voters tend to vote against the incumbent if they have any grievances whatsoever I worry.)

At the end of the day they both spent their entire first terms with approval ratings in the low 40s-high 30s. Biden's favorability on RCP is 41-54, Trump's is 39-56. There is no way in which Biden is unpopular where Trump isn't, at the very least, equally unpopular. All he has going for him right now is people's apparent inability to remember that 2019 was not paradise on earth, but rather that everything sucked about as much as it does now, there were just somewhat more people alive.

quote:

Trump absolutely CAN win and, right now, I'm putting his chances at roughly 50/50 which, in a mentally healthy country, would be impossible.

Strongly disagree on the 50/50, but agreed on a Trump victory being plenty possible and what it says about the collective psyche of the country. (RFKJ getting any attention whatsoever, even if [because?] most people aren't aware of his actual views, is also an indication of some huge problems, IMO.)

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:19

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Main Paineframe posted:

Skimming the polling history as a whole, rather than one specific poll, I see RealClearPolitics lists eight polls last month where Biden was in the lead, five where Trump was in the lead, and five where the two were essentially tied. Rather than getting caught up on one poll which could be an outlier, we should look at multiple polls to see the general trend.

I looked at the 538 poll list too, but it's completely loving bonkers so I don't think it's worthwhile. I don't know what the gently caress is wrong with pollsters' methodology this time around, but I do know that there's no loving way in hell third-parties are actually getting >18% of the vote. Hell, one of the polls on these shows RFK Jr. getting a whopping 22% of the vote, or RFK Jr. and West getting a combined 25%. It's just not happening.

I mean, the reason third parties don't get many votes when the elections actially occur is because of the billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of hours spent campaigning for the top two candidates and their parties in the months to year before an election. The polls a year out from an election are inaccurate not because of some inherent mirage effect, but because of the effects of electioneering on the public.

Its better to presume that a poll this far out is setting the table for how and why a major effort has to occur to get anyone elected president, not least someone who has yet to engage with the campaign.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:22

Crunch Buttsteak: Feb 26, 2007; You think reality is a circle of salt around my brain keeping witches out?

I think that Trump currently being out of the campaign spotlight right now is also a big contributing factor for a lot of people. It gives the illusion of a "Biden vs. Generic Republican" election, since while Trump never shuts the gently caress up, he hasn't really got the "campaigning for President" media coverage yet. Most people aren't actively paying attention to his court cases, because legal stuff is boring.

Like this is historically when a first term president's numbers are always the worst, and it's after a (rightly imo) criticized care package for Israel to bomb civilians in Palestine. It makes sense that a lot of left-leaning voters and moderates are hoping for something different... but once Trump starts campaigning, they're gonna get a big dose of "oh yeah, he's the other guy."

How much that actually moves the Blessed Needle will remain to be seen, of course, but there's still a year to go and a lot of wild poo poo is gonna happen in the meantime. I'm not saying to throw caution to the wind because Uncle Joe totally has this, but also let's not give Charlie Kirk a victory lap by thinking everything is hosed because a year out a single poll out of dozens is going Trump's way.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:27

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Gerund posted:

I mean, the reason third parties don't get many votes when the elections actially occur is because of the billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of hours spent campaigning for the top two candidates and their parties in the months to year before an election. The polls a year out from an election are inaccurate not because of some inherent mirage effect, but because of the effects of electioneering on the public.

Its better to presume that a poll this far out is setting the table for how and why a major effort has to occur to get anyone elected president, not least someone who has yet to engage with the campaign.

I'm failing at trying to find a study of why people don't vote 3rd party, but I imagine another large reason is because most people know it's literally throwing their vote away. If we didn't have the electoral college and/or if we had RCV, I imagine there would be a lot more votes for 3rd party candidates.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Nov 6, 2023

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:33

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

I know I already said it, and MPF also alluded to it, but let's not forget that this poll is not in line with most polls that are released, and even though it is a big-name pollster, it is getting an extremely disproportionate amount of attention considering it is one poll. (Like, how many people know that Rasmussen has found a 49% approval rating for Biden among likely voters multiple times in the last few months? That's not a "real" figure, and it's just as subject to error as any other poll, but it's not like the Sienna poll is any less imprecise.)

This also isn't the first time that a bad outlier poll for Biden has been used to craft a news cycle. I'm not saying that Biden is perfect or that everybody loves him, but it's pretty clear the mainstream media likes to advance narratives about Biden being unpopular and people should be asking themselves why this is.

Personally, I don't think it's a grand conspiracy, I just think "Biden in trouble!" articles get more clicks than "Americans lukewarm on Biden" articles, so we get more of them. But if the press is going to make their number one concern in the election their future profits, then obviously we are big, big trouble, because we know who the president that gets them the most eyeballs is.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:36

koolkal: Oct 21, 2008; this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

small butter posted:

2. Some of the above is specific to Democrats and not Biden

I assume Biden has been underperforming the party, the question is really how much.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:41

gurragadon: Jul 28, 2006

I don't think the polls say much besides the race is going to be close between Trump and Biden. They are all within the margin of error and it's not like Trump or Biden are dominating in any of the swing states right now. The fact that its pretty close is an important thing to be reminded of though.

I saw this axios article talking about the poll results that started off this conversation and it has a pretty interesting paragraph at the end. https://www.axios.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-biden-poll-nyt

quote:

Flashback: Biden benefited from the same Times/Siena College poll 4 years ago, which showed him as the most electable Democrat against Trump.

Biden's campaign seized on the poll and others like it to argue that he deserved the nomination because he had the best chance of beating Trump.
The same poll four years later shows the opposite.

I don't see much use in these polls for the average person. They seem to be used by campaigns to influence public opinion because of the uncertanties in polling.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:43

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

koolkal posted:

I assume Biden has been underperforming the party, the question is really how much.

The current fivethirtyeight generic ballot has Congressional dems at 44%, which is exactly what Biden got. It's Republicans in Congress who are lagging behind Trump, barely cracking 43% (and it's dropped a bit since the Speaker snafu, they had been around 45 before that.) I think Congressional Republicans underperforming Trump isn't surprising, since they are actively in the news doing a terrible job, while he can just sit in the background and take potshots.

If you consider state level parties, then I suppose Biden is underperforming, but state governments are pretty much all popular, for both parties, except for places where they are very much at odds with public sentiment (Wisconsin, North Carolina). It's actually very frustrating, because basically every governor in the country has a positive approval rating, which suggests that people are perceiving positive changes but attributing to them to their governors, not to Biden or Democrats in DC, even though the spending bills passed in 21-22 are a big reason for those conditions. And most state budgets are in good shape, which, again, was because of federal subsidy, not the actual actions of governors themselves - but people just have no idea.

gurragadon posted:

I don't see much use in these polls for the average person. They seem to be used by campaigns to influence public opinion because of the uncertanties in polling.

Yeah - which makes (what I perceive to be, anyway) an explosion in the amount of coverage of polling (not just for the election, but for any issue) a concern. It is absolutely pushing a sentiment among the electorate even if it just fancies itself to be portraying it.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 15:53

Bodyholes: Jun 30, 2005

Civilized Fishbot posted:

Is Florida still a swing state? I don't hear about it as one anymore.

Florida is a swing state in the sense that it is red right now, but it will become the bluest state in the union eventually when it's underwater.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 16:00

Misunderstood: Jan 19, 2023; by Fluffdaddy

^ ha

One factor in the sour evaluation of economic conditions is, I think, the temporary financial security provided by pandemic relief, and the loss of it afterwards. It is still really shocking to me that Congress was like, "throw in an extra, eh, I dunno, $600 a week in unemployment," perhaps without realizing that that is more than the total regular income of half the country, and anybody who deals with people who aren't high earners was really clearly able to see the effect that had on people. It was still a hard time, of course, because of the widespread illness and death, and the social isolation, but for the first time a lot of people saw what it was like to not worry about money. As was often cited, child poverty was halved. And people liked it, a lot.

So what you have now is, people (correctly) perceiving that they are in a more precarious financial position than they were in the last year of the Trump presidency - and that is leading some people to (incorrectly) remember that feeling of security as something that was consistent throughout the Trump presidency, and not a consequence of a very unusual action the government took in response to a very unusual situation. 2017-2019 wasn't really much better for most people than 2023, but rather than remembering the actual 2019 they are remembering their bank accounts in 2020, and blaming Biden for the numbers diminishing over the last three years.

What is tough is that the same government action that caused those feelings of security is - unfairly - blamed for all the inflation, so those policies aren't even popular anymore. It's really unclear what can be done outside of just hoping wages can catch up with prices, which, if inflation stays at its current level, they will, but it might not be fast enough for people to feel that much better in a year.

# ? Nov 6, 2023 16:04

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# ? May 25, 2024 16:22

World Famous W: May 25, 2007; BAAAAAAAAAAAA

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

The nightmare scenario for me is Biden croaking and we end up with President Harris before the election. She has no charisma and the combined misogyny and racism, combined with the general feeling that she would be foisted upon us rather than chosen, would in my opinion be enough to let Trump win fairly easily due to depressed democratic turnout.

i will never stop laughing if both trump and biden get locked in and then nature and age doing what it does before the election

# ? Nov 6, 2023 16:06

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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