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Is this a cool time to remind that 6 sigma is a 1 in million chance with the probability centred? 6 standard deviations to one tail is just under 2 in a billion chance of random in very poor stats language.
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Nov 7, 2023 03:57
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| # ? May 25, 2024 18:24 |
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Pidgin Englishman posted:Is this a cool time to remind that 6 sigma is a 1 in million chance with the probability centred? while mostly true in a sense, the problem is applying statistics (and statistical analysis) to temporal data, on a very limited data set with no actual model behind it, is just profoundly wrong. you can't just use stdev() and call it good. you can't just summon up a normal distribution standard deviation. actually, it's less than wrong: it's meaningless. data science is hella dumb
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Nov 7, 2023 04:01
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the dataset simply isn't large enough. No one here would say that we haven't done a really good job at skewing the data, but on a long enough timeline surely the planet has heated and cooled various times, and our efforts will amount to nothing other than a notable blip in the history of mass extinctions. The rate at which we've accomplished our goals is impressive but if you've purposely selected data from a specific time period when we already know things are changing then you don't really have the true mean and calculating any standard deviation from that mean is not about probability any more but volatility. And it's getting volatile much faster than expected, but it's really not that bad yet.
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Nov 7, 2023 04:05
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yeah this isn’t a model it’s just life. there’s no chance at anything, besides getting hotter.
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Nov 7, 2023 04:05
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Hence the very poor stats comment. Point wasn't that stats are God, they're a reference tool at best. Point was that for all the 6 sigma lol japes this is even worse.
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Nov 7, 2023 04:07
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swamp thong posted:And it's getting volatile much faster than expected, but it's really not that bad yet.
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Nov 7, 2023 04:07
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sigma might be a relevant reference to the dispersion of values the whole reason we use bell curves is because of their prevalence in nature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell-shaped_function but, as the most complex systems, maybe climate and weather don’t adhere
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Nov 7, 2023 04:10
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Xaris posted:while mostly true in a sense, the problem is applying statistics (and statistical analysis) to temporal data, on a very limited data set with no actual model behind it, is just profoundly wrong. you can't just use stdev() and call it good. you can't just summon up a normal distribution standard deviation. Also lol the fuckin graph had the stdev on it man ffs
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Nov 7, 2023 04:12
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Pidgin Englishman posted:Also lol the fuckin graph had the stdev on it man ffs My point was more denoting a standard deviation at all isn't even useful as a reference. it's not useful for anything. the elliot guy's heart is in the right spot but never trust a computer scientist to do data. everytime i see him state some stats i want to die because it's always profoundly wrong he should just stick to posting pretty matlab graphs without CS-ing it up now he actually wanted to describe volitatility and rates of change, sure. imo the data speaks for itself without applying stdev() functions to it. anyways I'm just being needlessly pedantic Xaris has issued a correction as of 04:25 on Nov 7, 2023 |
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Nov 7, 2023 04:13
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Oh yeah, totally agree. Who doesn't love numbering to surety when the application is plain wrong though? Also soz, just had my old balding head spray painted so a bit tender. That was a new one
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Nov 7, 2023 04:31
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the posts in this thread are getting worse faster than expected
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Nov 7, 2023 04:37
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smoobles posted:sigma balls LMAooo gottem
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Nov 7, 2023 04:44
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ben shapino posted:the posts in this thread are getting worse faster than expected Actually, previous forecasts continue to be remarkably accurate ...
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Nov 7, 2023 05:52
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un-f cking believable!
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Nov 7, 2023 06:41
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(Canadian) Liberal government set to miss 2030 emissions targets, says environment commissioner auditquote:'We found that the measures most critical for reducing emissions had not been identified or prioritized' I'm shocked... shocked! Well, not that shocked.
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Nov 7, 2023 17:58
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it’s a 0-sigma event because this is the new normal
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Nov 7, 2023 18:03
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Sssssssnap. Was looking for a job after graduating in 2005 and around March 2007, I stumbled across The Oil Drum after seeing A Crude Awakening online for some reason, then read Lynas’ first Six Degrees. Got my copy of the 30 year update to The Limits of Growth too. That made getting an actual job that summer seem pretty funny. Then the GFC made everything REALLY funny.
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Nov 7, 2023 18:10
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I’m definitely being dense but the point is “this is not something you’d expect to see if temperatures kept on going at the nice ones we were comfortable with,” isn’t it? The assumptions behind the figure must be wrong, but a lot of those assumptions are ones the world keeps making, which is why it would matter? I guess it’s whether it’s a stupid thing to do that still implies disaster, or a stupid thing to do where maybe everything is fine— this seems like a very critical distinction, but I am too stupid to know how to actually make it
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Nov 7, 2023 18:19
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i'm sure it'll go back down to 5 sigma over winter, its fine
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Nov 7, 2023 18:45
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Smoobles fixed it. It’s fine. Get ready for Black Friday, yeah?
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Nov 7, 2023 19:00
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Skaffen-Amtiskaw posted:Smoobles fixed it. It’s fine. I fixed it briefly, but there was too much sigma, I couldn't wrangle the biosphere im so sorry
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Nov 7, 2023 19:01
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good mourning biosphere
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Nov 7, 2023 19:07
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Oglethorpe posted:i'm sure it'll go back down to 5 sigma over winter, its fine Invest in copium ltd. stocks, theyre going to release some new products next summer to help ppl live with 12 sigma deviations. 69 sigma by 2027
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Nov 7, 2023 19:11
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It's so weird to think that as far as we can tell, the tipping point is actually here. It felt so theoretical, for so long. At this point it's only a matter of time until the first country does their first geoengineering campaign. For anyone not familiar with geoengineering, the problem with it is that there is only so much energy and available moisture in the atmosphere. As a result, geoengineering steals precipitable moisture at the expense of downstream recipients. Because of that, geoengineering is an act of war. A fight over resources just as real as the push and pull over oil, except even moreso because it's loving water. To me, that future is just as horrifying as the fact that we're actually reaching apparent tipping points that, for the record, were not supposed to happen this soon, broadly speaking. I don't even know what to say. poo poo is wild. One nice thing for Americans is that Canada and the USA can agree on geoengineering patterns and everyone would be pretty taken care of. The EU would probably do similarly (I'm thinking of countries on the jet stream in particular here). I don't know enough about subtropical and tropical geoengineering to know how that would be handled and who would have advantages. East Asia could theoretically capture moisture bound for the North America, I guess, sometimes, as the jet is so strongly fed there and it's upstream of NA. Interesting stuff, I don't know enough about the circulations and methods to understand exactly who would benefit on the top level.
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Nov 7, 2023 19:41
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its a shame the biosphere died of ligma
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Nov 7, 2023 19:57
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There's no special method to it you just dump it all in criss crossing patterns on a clear day
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Nov 7, 2023 20:26
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Taima posted:It's so weird to think that as far as we can tell, the tipping point is actually here. It felt so theoretical, for so long. Governments might have a hard time agreeing on/getting any geoengineering strategy written down on public paper, but there's nothing to say a fleet of private stratotankers can't just be flying around aimlessly, right? The dumping of aerosols is plausibly deniable, they just need approval to fly. You really only started to hear about chemtrails in 1998 and then by 2012 it seemed like it had dropped off completely. Could it have been a private geoengineering effort as described above by the big fossil fuel companies to obscure the climactic damage being done at a time when there was more room to act, but the science was less understood?
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Nov 7, 2023 20:30
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Evis posted:(Canadian) Liberal government set to miss 2030 emissions targets, says environment commissioner audit It's gonna be a conservative government by that point anyhow. But I guess that's the point of setting such long-range targets -- you're never gonna be held responsible for them.
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Nov 7, 2023 20:34
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Dokapon Findom posted:Governments might have a hard time agreeing on/getting any geoengineering strategy written down on public paper, but there's nothing to say a fleet of private stratotankers can't just be flying around aimlessly, right? The dumping of aerosols is plausibly deniable, they just need approval to fly. no, for all the same reasons chemtrails are stupid on top of why would they spend money to hide it when they can just be like “nah, not us”
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Nov 7, 2023 20:37
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ELON will save the day with whole starfleets( ) of satellites distributing aerosols into the upper atmosphere
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Nov 7, 2023 20:44
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I don't know much about chemtrails so I'm not saying they don't exist, but they don't have much use here because the minute you mention something like that, everyone stops listening, Nobody wants to believe how bad climate change has become will happily ignore it if given a chance, so we have to keep it on the straight and narrow as much as possible. It's important that people understand what geoengineering is because I don't think a lot of people understand that there's only so much rain and if you steal some, it's out of the mouth of the next nation. The implications are horrifying. It's like if the earth is throwing everyone gatorades and you can just stand in front of someone and catch all their gatorades. We're so hosed.
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Nov 7, 2023 20:49
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Dokapon Findom posted:Governments might have a hard time agreeing on/getting any geoengineering strategy written down on public paper, but there's nothing to say a fleet of private stratotankers can't just be flying around aimlessly, right? The dumping of aerosols is plausibly deniable, they just need approval to fly. You think that the fossil fuel companies conspired to secretly mitigate climate change on their own dime with no credit or profit from it?
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Nov 7, 2023 20:51
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contrails were also blamed for the failure of the Ivanpah Concentrating Solar Power station outside of Primm, NV. so they had to burn more natural gas instead lol
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Nov 7, 2023 20:58
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Blockade posted:its a shame the biosphere died of ligma ligma bdelloids
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Nov 7, 2023 21:27
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"chem trails aren't real" I furiously declare as I jack up the throttle on my plane, spewing VOCs and lead-laden exhaust behind me.
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Nov 7, 2023 21:46
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Dokapon Findom posted:You really only started to hear about chemtrails in 1998 and then by 2012 it seemed like it had dropped off completely. Could it have been a private geoengineering effort as described above by the big fossil fuel companies to obscure the climactic damage being done at a time when there was more room to act, but the science was less understood?
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Nov 7, 2023 21:54
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bawfuls posted:dude it's literally governmen't area 51 5g aliens demoncraps mind control kentrails
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Nov 7, 2023 22:05
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I was a chemtrail pilot from 1996-1998. I can confirm they control your mind, but only if you breath air outside.
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Nov 7, 2023 22:09
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Salt Fish posted:I was a chemtrail pilot from 1996-1998. I can confirm they control your mind, but only if you breath air outside. And it works, because I absolutely believe their made up lies about global warming being real
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Nov 7, 2023 22:11
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| # ? May 25, 2024 18:24 |
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Trabisnikof posted:contrails were also blamed for the failure of the Ivanpah Concentrating Solar Power station outside of Primm, NV. I killed Fantastic and got it running, all good.
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Nov 7, 2023 22:13
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