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Milosh
Oct 14, 2000
Forum Veteran
Beshear is about as decent as it gets for being a pol. He's gonna be the candidate in 2028.

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Crunch Buttsteak
Feb 26, 2007

You think reality is a circle of salt around my brain keeping witches out?

Push El Burrito posted:

Steiner canonically has what is called a "buster dick".

Vivi casting Firaga on it is one of the earliest ways to reach the damage cap

Thom12255
Feb 23, 2013
WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY

Mitch gonna be pissed.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

While we wait for election results, CNN has a new poll out that shows Trump leading Biden:

CNN posted:

CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch

One year out from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 49% to 45% among registered voters, in a hypothetical rematch in the latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Biden’s reelection chances are buffeted by deeply negative approval ratings, a stagnant sense that things are going poorly in the United States, diminished support among key voter blocs, and a widespread sense that he is not up for the job.

In the potential rematch between Biden and Trump, neither candidate has much room for growth. All told, 51% of voters nationwide say there is no chance at all that they would vote for Biden, and just 4% are not currently supporting him but say there is a chance they will. Nearly half, 48%, say there is no chance they will vote for Trump, and only 2% that they aren’t currently backing him but would consider it.

Biden’s support in the poll is significantly weaker now among several groups that he previously won by wide margins and were critical to his election in 2020. Among voters younger than 35, 48% support Trump, 47% Biden. Political independents break 45% Trump to 41% Biden. Black voters favor Biden, 73%vs. Trump’s 23%, while Latino voters split 50% Biden to 46% Trump. And among voters of color generally, women divide 63% Biden to 31% Trump, while men split about evenly, 49% Trump to 46% Biden.

All of those margins reflect significant declines in support for Biden compared with 2020 exit polls. While those who actually turn out to vote are not the same as registered voters, and with a full year to go before the election, there is time for voters’ views to shift, the differences between then and now are stark. Biden won voters younger than 35 by 21 points nationally, independents by 13 points, Black voters by 75 points and Latino voters by 33 points. Among voters of color, he won both women and men by wide margins: women by 53 points, men by 34.

Just a quarter of Americans (25%) say Biden has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president, while 53% feel Trump does. Only about half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has the sharpness and stamina to serve, compared with 90% of Republicans who say Trump does.

Biden’s approval rating - 39% approve, 61% disapprove – is largely worse than previous modern presidents at this point in their reelection bids. His rating is about on par with Trump’s as of late October 2019 (Trump stood at 41% approval at this point). Jimmy Carter was the only president with a significantly lower approval rating than Biden at this point. One year out from Election Day 1980, just 32% approved of Carter’s work as president – he ultimately lost reelection. And Biden’s job performance currently draws far more intense opposition than impassioned support: 42% of Americans strongly disapprove of his performance, with just 14% strongly approving. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the same approval rating as Biden, 39% approve, 61% disapprove.

The new poll finds 72% of all Americans say things in the country today are going badly. A broad majority have felt that way for the entirety of Biden’s time in office. At best, 60% said things were going badly in March 2021.

Voters who disapprove of Biden’s performance and those who say things are going badly in the country both break heavily in Trump’s favor, 79% Trump to 12% Biden among disapprovers, and 65% Trump to 27% Biden among those who say things are going badly. Those who only somewhat disapprove of Biden’s performance helped to propel Democrats to a surprisingly strong showing in last year’s midterms (exit polls found they broke 49% for the Democratic candidates in their US House districts to 45% for the Republicans, despite their qualms about Biden). Biden does fare better among weak disapprovers than strong disapprovers in the new poll, but he still lags behind Trump with these voters (46% Trump to 40% Biden).

Biden trails former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a hypothetical matchup between the two – 49% of registered voters back Haley, 43% Biden – and is also behind in a matchup with Trump as the GOP nominee where two declared independent candidates are included: 41% Trump, 35% Biden, 16% Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 4% Cornel West, although that level of support for candidates outside of the two main parties has rarely materialized when actual votes are cast. A hypothetical matchup between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in next year’s contest is much closer with no clear leader, 48% DeSantis to 46% Biden.

Primary matchups for both parties suggest a Biden vs. Trump election is the most likely scenario as of now. Trump holds 61% to DeSantis’ 17% and Haley’s 10% on the GOP side, with no other candidate in double digits among Republican-aligned voters. Biden stands 60 points ahead of his newest challenger, with 71% support among Democratic-aligned voters to Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ 11% and author Marianne Williamson at 8%.

Trump’s narrow advantage over Biden comes even as public perceptions of the former president remain deeply negative. But the poll suggests Biden’s image is even worse, and those with negative views of both candidates break in Trump’s favor.

When asked if each of them is more a part of the problem or more a part of the solution in dealing with the nation’s issues, 61% of all Americans say Biden is more a part of the problem, and 57% that Trump is. Independents are a touch more likely to see Biden than Trump as part of the problem, 67% vs. 63%.

Both Biden and Trump have favorability ratings that are deeply underwater: 36% favorable vs. 59% unfavorable for Biden, 38% favorable vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump.

Among the 19% of registered voters who see both Biden and Trump as part of the problem, 46% say they’d vote Trump, 34% Biden and 17% for someone else. Likewise, the 18% of registered voters who have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump split 44% Trump, 35% Biden and 17% for someone else.

Assessing each man’s attributes, the poll finds that those the public sees as Biden’s greatest weaknesses are also perceived as Trump’s biggest strengths (having the stamina and sharpness to serve, 25% Biden to 53% Trump, along with being an effective world leader, 36% Biden vs. 48% Trump). And likewise, Trump’s weaknesses appear to be among Biden’s strengths (51% say Biden respects the rule of law compared with just 35% who say Trump does, and 42% say Biden is honest and trustworthy while only 33% feel the same way about Trump). Both candidates, though, fall far short on being someone Americans would be proud to have as president: Just 33% say they feel that way about Biden, 38% about Trump.

As of now, Republican-aligned voters appear to be more motivated to vote than Democratic-aligned voters and to express significantly more intense feelings about Biden. All told, 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in next year’s presidential election vs. 61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. And Republicans are about 50 points likelier to strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance (82%) than Democrats are to strongly approve (30%).

Voters are evenly divided over whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the candidates they have to choose from next year, 50% land on each side. Republicans are far more satisfied than Democrats (67% satisfied vs. 44% among Democrats), with independents largely unsatisfied (just 33% are satisfied with their choices). Among Democratic-aligned voters, younger voters are less satisfied than older ones (34% satisfied among those younger than 45 vs. 46% among those 45 and older), but there is no equivalent age gap among Republican-aligned voters (65% younger than 45 are satisfied as are 64% of those age 45 and up).

Amid all of these signs of dampened enthusiasm, Biden’s campaign has argued they have a year to tout the president’s accomplishments and rally their base, but the poll suggests they start at a significant disadvantage.

The economy appears to be a prominent issue heading in to next year’s election, with 66% of registered voters saying it will be extremely important to their vote next year. Half or more say that election integrity and voting rights (57%), gun policy (52%), crime (52%) and immigration (50%) are that important. Fewer cite foreign policy (43%), abortion (42%), climate change (31%) or policies toward transgender people (17%).

As in the past few election cycles, there are broad differences between the issues Democratic voters call important and those central for Republican voters. For Republicans, the economy (81% extremely important among Republican-aligned voters vs. 50% extremely important among Democratic-aligned voters), immigration (73% vs. 30%), crime (66% vs. 39%) and foreign policy (55% vs. 33%) are deemed significantly more important than for Democrats, while those on the Democratic side are significantly more likely than those aligned with the GOP to call abortion (51% to 33%), climate change (51% to 11%) and gun policy (59% to 47%) top concerns. Despite its prominence in the rhetoric around the GOP primary thus far, very few consider policies toward transgender people deeply important to their vote, and more Democratic-aligned voters say it is that important than do Republicans (24% to 9%).

The only issue tested in the poll where both sides agree on its importance is voting rights and election integrity (60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters call it extremely important, 58% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say the same). Most Americans, 54%, say American democracy is under attack. And as in prior CNN polling, that view is more widespread among Republicans (64% feel that way) than Democrats (50%).

More broadly speaking, 72% of Americans say there are important differences between the parties, while 28% say they are pretty much the same. Independents are less apt to see critical differences (54% say so while 45% say that the parties are pretty much the same), and Republicans are a bit more likely than Democrats to say there are important differences (84% vs. 79%). Those voters who see “important differences” split almost evenly between Biden and Trump in general election preferences (49% Trump to 47% Biden) while the “pretty much the same” group breaks for Trump (50% Trump to 39% Biden, 8% other).

The poll’s result on a generic congressional ballot is near even with no clear leader: 48% say they would vote for the Republican in their district to 47% for the Democrat. Notably, those voters younger than 35 break broadly to Democrats on this question, 56% back the Democrat, 37% the Republican.

More Americans see Republican leaders in Congress as part of the problem in dealing with the nation’s top issues than say the same of Democratic leaders in Congress (63% see GOP leaders as part of the problem vs. 58% for Democratic leaders). And the House’s new speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson, begins his tenure largely unknown (52% have never heard of him or have no opinion), and with an underwater favorability rating among those who do have an opinion (20% favorable to 27% unfavorable).

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from October 27-November 2 among a random national sample of 1,514 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. For results among the 1,271 registered voters surveyed, the error margin is plus or minus 3.3 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup


:hellyeah:

Cthulhumatic
May 21, 2007
Not dreaming...just turned off.
What the gently caress is that under 35 number for Trump and how did they even find them

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
A viral tiktok prank encouraging viewers to mess with pollsters

(I have no idea if this actually happened)

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



I'm not going to put stock in polls a year out, but it's very clear that Biden has an enthusiasm problem. It doesn't help that Dems seem to be falling back towards the 2016 Hillary campaign TRUMP BAD strategy which completely failed. You need to actually give your voters a positive reason to go to the polls. At least with Republicans they can drive voters to the polls by saying it will make Dems mad or whatever.

Crunch Buttsteak
Feb 26, 2007

You think reality is a circle of salt around my brain keeping witches out?
Yeah I'm not gonna pretend to know anything about their methodology but I'm just gonna go ahead and assume that all of the caveats previously discussed about that NYT poll apply to this one. Especially the whole "Oh no, people think the country is going badly!" thing, which can mean literally anything.

We're still a year out people, the Democrat and the Republican being a few points away from one another before either starts actively campaigning isn't surprising.

Farchanter
Jun 15, 2008
I'm really interested in how the rest of the night goes, not least of all because I am not sure how to square continued strong Democratic electoral results with continued polls showing Biden in deep trouble.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




I'm gonna wait until how votes shake out tonight as my actual weather vane for presidential polling.

I can respect, and absolutely agree Biden has an enthusiasm problem but when the rubber meets the road, if dems lock up Ohio, Virginia, and just now confirmed KY then those polls are pretty suspect.

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

B B posted:

While we wait for election results, CNN has a new poll out that shows Trump leading Biden:

R value = 0 on this apparently so who cares. I’m so tired of this election stuff being four years long.

Also my poll worker buddy in Delaware county OH said all precincts at our polling spot broke yes on 1+2

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




goethe.cx posted:

This may be controversial, but I think Steiner is the best physical lover of any playable character in the FF mainline series, and arguably of any FF game.

Steiner is so focus-minded on one thing at a time, and so physically built from running around in armor all the time, that I think he could gently caress a hole into the Sister Ray if he had to.

e: uh crap. wrong thread

Also it's important that everyone who doesn't understand the context, that regardless of everything he's completely right.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Farchanter posted:

I'm really interested in how the rest of the night goes, not least of all because I am not sure how to square continued strong Democratic electoral results with continued polls showing Biden in deep trouble.

You’re assuming that low enthusiasm automatically becomes a vote against or an abstention. Americans are way more tolerant of non-ideal candidates than posters here

Ages
Feb 20, 2005

Its just half the puffin juice and the puffin lives and doesnt mind. I promise!
Fun Shoe
way too early numbers on the Ohio issues coming in now (4% counted) ('yes' is the good result on both)

https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1722053889191538793?s=20

https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1722054020670390653?s=20

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Nelson Mandingo posted:

I'm gonna wait until how votes shake out tonight as my actual weather vane for presidential polling.

I can respect, and absolutely agree Biden has an enthusiasm problem but when the rubber meets the road, if dems lock up Ohio, Virginia, and just now confirmed KY then those polls are pretty suspect.

Yeah, a whole lot of it is "Biden's old" which just manifests as "can we get someone younger" but there's no real consensus on who that might be so it's just rummaging through the fridge and hoping something pops out you didn't see before. Barring some unforeseen development, it's likely to matter about as much as in 2020 when people complained Biden was old but the ones doing it the loudest were transparently maneuvering for an even older guy or a similarly old guy in visibly worse shape. I mean, if some charming young primary candidate or third party showed it would be big trouble, but no significant number of people are going to stay home because of Biden's age.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Cthulhumatic posted:

What the gently caress is that under 35 number for Trump and how did they even find them

Yeah...what the actual gently caress lmao

Where did they poll? The chudlands?

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

TulliusCicero posted:

Yeah...what the actual gently caress lmao

Where did they poll? The chudlands?

It's the Andrew Tate generation

azflyboy
Nov 9, 2005
I think part of the gap in the "Too old/senile for president" questions is down to the relative amount of media coverage Biden and Trump get when they speak.

If Biden gives a speech or something, it's probably on CNN, and likely gets shown (in part) on nightly news, and maybe a bit on local news stations. If there's a "gaffe", the event gets even more coverage, so a lot of people are likely to see it.

When Trump does a rally, outside of OAN/Newsmax, it's pretty unlikely anyone covers it live, and the coverage it gets is going to be confined to brief clips for the most part (especially after the Fox settlement), so if both Biden and Trump say something equally senile, the Biden one is going to get a hell of a lot more coverage in places most people who don't closely follow politics get their news.

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

Professor Beetus posted:

It's the Andrew Tate generation

Like sub 20% of them

Edit: Nevermind more like 30% and basically in lockstep with millennials

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/

I think they found the one gen z’er out there answering land lines

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Cthulhumatic posted:

What the gently caress is that under 35 number for Trump and how did they even find them

they absolutly exist, they are just more rare and the smarter ones are quiet about it.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Amazed that anyone even answers an unknown number on their phones these days

Crunch Buttsteak
Feb 26, 2007

You think reality is a circle of salt around my brain keeping witches out?

azflyboy posted:

I think part of the gap in the "Too old/senile for president" questions is down to the relative amount of media coverage Biden and Trump get when they speak.

If Biden gives a speech or something, it's probably on CNN, and likely gets shown (in part) on nightly news, and maybe a bit on local news stations. If there's a "gaffe", the event gets even more coverage, so a lot of people are likely to see it.

When Trump does a rally, outside of OAN/Newsmax, it's pretty unlikely anyone covers it live, and the coverage it gets is going to be confined to brief clips for the most part (especially after the Fox settlement), so if both Biden and Trump say something equally senile, the Biden one is going to get a hell of a lot more coverage in places most people who don't closely follow politics get their news.

Yeah, like I said earlier, Trump's relative obscurity on the mass media side of things is leading to a "Joe Biden (meh) vs. a generic Republican (could be anything!)" mentality, especially among the politically-unengaged who might even think that the Republican primary matters and Trump might not be the nominee. Once Trump gets back on the stage and has to answer questions and rambles on annoyingly on CNN and makes everything about him again, I think a lot of independents are going to be reminded of what he's actually like.

Like, it's a weird case of being kicked off social media actually helping his public image with the general public (and not just idiots obsessed with cancel culture).

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Crunch Buttsteak posted:

Yeah, like I said earlier, Trump's relative obscurity on the mass media side of things is leading to a "Joe Biden (meh) vs. a generic Republican (could be anything!)" mentality, especially among the politically-unengaged who might even think that the Republican primary matters and Trump might not be the nominee. Once Trump gets back on the stage and has to answer questions and rambles on annoyingly on CNN and makes everything about him again, I think a lot of independents are going to be reminded of what he's actually like.

Like, it's a weird case of being kicked off social media actually helping his public image with the general public (and not just idiots obsessed with cancel culture).

this. i know alot of people who are like that right now.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Killer robot posted:

Yeah, a whole lot of it is "Biden's old" which just manifests as "can we get someone younger" but there's no real consensus on who that might be so it's just rummaging through the fridge and hoping something pops out you didn't see before. Barring some unforeseen development, it's likely to matter about as much as in 2020 when people complained Biden was old but the ones doing it the loudest were transparently maneuvering for an even older guy or a similarly old guy in visibly worse shape. I mean, if some charming young primary candidate or third party showed it would be big trouble, but no significant number of people are going to stay home because of Biden's age.

I am going to stay home.






Not because of Biden's age, but because I can vote from home.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Ages posted:

way too early numbers on the Ohio issues coming in now (4% counted) ('yes' is the good result on both)


Looking good. That metric is gonna shrink but I'm pretty confident Issue 1 is gonna make it.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

I always write myself in for sheriff, and I regret to inform you all that I have seen enough: I have lost yet another election for sheriff in Virginia. :(

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

B B posted:

While we wait for election results, CNN has a new poll out that shows Trump leading Biden:


"its just another outlier! its just another outlier!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Pobrecito posted:

"its just another outlier! its just another outlier!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

That poll says 48% of people 35 and under want Trump lmao

Complete trash poll

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Ohio now has constitutional protection for abortion access:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722062934023483640


:glomp:

Anno
May 10, 2017

I'm going to drown! For no reason at all!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722062934023483640?s=20


e: :argh:

But also, sick. We were seriously thinking about looking for jobs elsewhere if this failed. Hard to want to raise a daughter in this hosed up state sometimes but this is a little reprieve.

Anno fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Nov 8, 2023

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Pobrecito posted:

"its just another outlier! its just another outlier!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob
The only thing out lyin' here is you!!!!!

Got em.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



CNN'S polling has been particularly insane lately

Like what the gently caress is that about? Chud boss demanding wierd poo poo?

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Quick Virginia update.

Democrats are currently leading 9 to 6 in the senate (21 are needed for a majority), and the races that will likely determine control are pretty evenly split right now:



Looking like a nail-biter on the senate side at the moment. :smith:

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Pobrecito posted:

"its just another outlier! its just another outlier!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

Dems have loving swept tonight vote-wise. If they lock up VA that's a dominating victory march. I won't take polls like that seriously. Which isn't me saying to not take Trump seriously.

Edit: Apparently as I wrote this, Virginia senate got called for dems.

Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Nov 8, 2023

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

FlamingLiberal posted:

I'm not going to put stock in polls a year out, but it's very clear that Biden has an enthusiasm problem. It doesn't help that Dems seem to be falling back towards the 2016 Hillary campaign TRUMP BAD strategy which completely failed. You need to actually give your voters a positive reason to go to the polls. At least with Republicans they can drive voters to the polls by saying it will make Dems mad or whatever.

It's a viable strategy post 2016, however it's not a long term strategy and it makes Donald Trump the entirety of the election. Democrats and Republicans are driven to the polls in near equal fervor to vote on Trump, but it still means that everything comes down to what the carnival barker is yelling about. 3 cycles in a row we've let an especially stupid and narcissistic fail son decide what we're going to be arguing about and fighting over.

You'd think that if for the last 30 years your plays have only worked when you're either running the most charismatic guy of a generation or, half the time, when you're running against the most hated man in the nation, you'd try something else out. I mean, at least try not defaulting to going with the most boring option.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

TulliusCicero posted:

CNN'S polling has been particularly insane lately

Like what the gently caress is that about? Chud boss demanding wierd poo poo?

Close races are bad for business. Emerson had the KY gov race at Cameron +1 last week.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1722059530928804070

This is the woman who got revenge porned by the state GOP. Her polling in the immediate aftermath of that oppo drop was abysmal, though I haven't seen recent numbers

e: also I'm not calling it a commonwealth as long as there's a Goochland county there, fake state

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Roem is apparently predicted to win. So Virginia is locked up for dems. I can see why Youngkin is against abortion, when his presidential aspirations were terminated before viable.

Tonight was a victory march. I can only hope that republicans double down on abortion next year.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Nelson Mandingo posted:

Roem is apparently predicted to win. So Virginia is locked up for dems. I can see why Youngkin is against abortion, when his presidential aspirations were terminated before viable.

Tonight was a victory march. I can only hope that republicans double down on abortion next year.

This

Never stop with the Gilead policies GOP

just let us keep crushing you

World Famous W
May 25, 2007

BAAAAAAAAAAAA
only poll i care about is who the american public thinks is the best physical lover in mainline final fantasy

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TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



World Famous W posted:

only poll i care about is who the american public thinks is the best physical lover in mainline final fantasy

I'm a big fan of Cid myself

I'll leave you to decide which one :smug:

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