Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Paladinus posted:

According to the IDF, they are now operating within Gaza City proper.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-is-open-gaza-fighting-pauses-aid-hostages-2023-11-07/

Either we will see a sharp increase in Israeli casualties very soon, or Hamas' urban warfare plan wasn't that great after all.

I don't think anything that happened after the early hours of October 7 is part of a plan. Hamas had to expect a retaliatory bombing campaign and a surge in West Bank settler violence, but the extreme severity of the Israeli assault on Gaza, including an outright invasion of the city, is fueled/enabled by the extent to which Hamas humiliated the IDF and the extent to which Hamas soldiers did war crimes.* I really believe the people who say Hamas didn't expect either of those.

*it's predictable that teenage and early-twenties men, who are all traumatized to hell and know they're on a suicide mission, will do a lot of war crimes when given the opportunity. But the extent of that opportunity was unpredictable.

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Nov 8, 2023

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

57001
Sep 26, 2020

HonorableTB posted:

Israel is not going to nuke anyone. They have no need to. They're achieving the same thing with conventional means.

israel is wouldn't do it over this, anyway, with their own policy of amimut. too risky. by the definition of amimut, outside of some declassified docs from the vela incident they have never done atmospheric tests. they had access to data from french tests in the 60s, but that's pretty old and can't really tell us much about current capabilities, and israel never had access to two-stage test data since france cut off their data supply before 68.

but the more fun and debateable thing here is that maybe deterrence works (until it fails, to quote jon wolfsthal) but because there is so little data available about israel's forces and they don't acknowledge them, it like. works extra hard. we can make good guesses about where israel keeps their jerichos but ~*~officially~*~ speaking, they don't have any nukes in caves. so how screwed would your rear end feel if you wasted all your conventional means on taking out jericho silos or jerichos in caves that weren't actually carrying nuclear warheads. now you have nothing.



but all of this is moot in the context of gaza, imho, israel's nuclear posture is basically set up solely for retaliation against apocalyptic conventional, or as they would wish it, nuclear attacks from iran.

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic

Hong XiuQuan posted:

Which makes it easy to believe that there is a Hamas command centre in or under every hospital, school, mosque and crate of bottled water.

Maybe you’ve been ignoring them, but there are countless videos from the past few days proving that Hamas does this. I’ve seen videos of rocket launchers embedded in elementary schools and universities, videos of tunnels embedded underneath mosques and amusements parks, and many more - all sorts of wild stuff like hiding rocket launches with water cube ‘camouflage’ of sorts. Plenty of GoPro footage out there now that they’re operating around and in Gaza City. It’s pretty disgusting what Hamas is doing.

And yea, I understand that a militarily inferior force “”must”” strategically hide their assets in these locations, but can we please not pretend that they don’t do it?

mitztronic fucked around with this message at 15:16 on Nov 8, 2023

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

mitztronic posted:

Maybe you’ve been ignoring them, but there are countless videos from the past few days proving that Hamas does this. I’ve seen videos of rocket launchers embedded in elementary schools and universities, videos of tunnels embedded underneath mosques and amusements parks, and many more - all sorts of wild stuff like hiding rocket launches with water cube ‘camouflage’ of sorts. Plenty of GoPro footage out there now that they’re operating around and in Gaza City. It’s pretty disgusting what Hamas is doing.

And yea, I understand that a militarily inferior force “”must”” strategically hide their assets in these locations, but can we please not pretend that they don’t do it?

Fancy posting links to these videos you feel that prove Hamas is doing this?

DelilahFlowers
Jan 10, 2020

mitztronic posted:

Maybe you’ve been ignoring them, but there are countless videos from the past few days proving that Hamas does this. I’ve seen videos of rocket launchers embedded in elementary schools and universities, videos of tunnels embedded underneath mosques and amusements parks, and many more - all sorts of wild stuff like hiding rocket launches with water cube ‘camouflage’ of sorts. Plenty of GoPro footage out there now that they’re operating around and in Gaza City. It’s pretty disgusting what Hamas is doing.

And yea, I understand that a militarily inferior force “”must”” strategically hide their assets in these locations, but can we please not pretend that they don’t do it?

Now do moving ambulances

Collapsing Farts
Jun 29, 2018

💀
Again, there is no need to defend Hamas because yeah, there's video of them warcriming all over the place. Those guys love to warcrime, a lot. Pretending they don't is just dumb, go to reddit or telegram and just watch the videos?

But also, again, it does not excuse Israels over the top targeting of civilians all over the place. Those guys love to warcrime too

Aztec Galactus
Sep 12, 2002

No matter who is hiding in a hospital, you are still a horrible monster for bombing a hospital.

Hong XiuQuan
Feb 19, 2008

"Without justice for the Palestinians there will be no peace in the Middle East."

Collapsing Farts posted:

Again, there is no need to defend Hamas because yeah, there's video of them warcriming all over the place. Those guys love to warcrime, a lot. Pretending they don't is just dumb, go to reddit or telegram and just watch the videos?

But also, again, it does not excuse Israels over the top targeting of civilians all over the place. Those guys love to warcrime too

Literally every hospital in the gaza strip has been bombed once, many repeatedly, usually with the refrain 'ah, but there was a Hamas command and control centre there'. Because this media is all over the place, I would absolutely love to see anything authentic that shows Hamas operating from Gaza's hospitals. We can then address whether it's acceptable to kill dozens in a hospital for some guy wearing a headband.

NB - this isn't even controversial. You guys are making the claims. The D&D rules have martial law now regarding low-effort no source posts. If these videos from October or November 2023 meaningfully exist, please show me. So far from what I've seen, any staff present at the hospitals has been screaming loud and clear "there are no tunnels here but you've murdered my entire family".

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Zzulu posted:

I mean you don't have to guess because Japan did this in WW2 and America destroyed 3 cities with aerial bombardment. Including the capital which they firebombed to ensure maximum destruction and loss of life and two cities of which they nuked, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians in total

There might have been a few events between Pearl Harbor and bombing Japan.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

mitztronic posted:

Maybe you’ve been ignoring them, but there are countless videos from the past few days proving that Hamas does this. I’ve seen videos of rocket launchers embedded in elementary schools and universities, videos of tunnels embedded underneath mosques and amusements parks, and many more - all sorts of wild stuff like hiding rocket launches with water cube ‘camouflage’ of sorts. Plenty of GoPro footage out there now that they’re operating around and in Gaza City. It’s pretty disgusting what Hamas is doing.

And yea, I understand that a militarily inferior force “”must”” strategically hide their assets in these locations, but can we please not pretend that they don’t do it?

You haven't posted any of them so I can't check for myself, but it doesn't sound like any of the videos you've seen show any Hamas command centers under hospitals, which is the exact claim you were trying to rebut. Whatever we may think about the ethics of tunnels near mosques or rocket launchers "embedded in" (?) schools, neither one is evidence of actual command centers under hospitals.

I'm not just being a pedant for the fun of it here. It's important to have these details straight because IDF propaganda often makes use of these kinds of misunderstandings. They know that international media is largely sympathetic, and therefore they can get away with quite a bit of stretching - as long as the host doesn't question it, they can get away with things like using "tunnels" as an excuse to bomb civilian infrastructure, or padding their civilian casualty lists with a bunch of soldiers complete with full military ranks, and most people will buy it without thinking twice.

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic

DelilahFlowers posted:

Now do moving ambulances

Wild interpretation of my post. I’m not defending Israel. I’m saying that Hamas is, in fact, terrible and the proof is in the open now for people that were claiming otherwise (as was literally just done). I haven’t seen anything to justify bombing an ambulance, other than IDF statements, which lol, I don’t believe. Y’all are trigger sensitive for anything that even has the smallest taste of being pro-Israeli, which I am not. It is very easy to be anti-Israeli and anti-Hamas.

I’ll dig up the videos and post them later, regarding the schools with rocket launches and such. They are not hard to find, seriously (I am working now though, sorry - not going through various war footage while trying to work). I truly wasn’t sure if I would be probed or banned for posting videos, I have read the rules multiple times and it was just confusing to me when it’s allowed*. I assumed that most people have seen these videos.

(*I accept I may be an idiot with respect to this rule.)

Edit: sorry mainframe. I should have collected the videos earlier and posted them. I accept any punishment and will not do it again.

mitztronic fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Nov 8, 2023

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
The one thing I saw publicised recently was a rocket launching site claimed to be in a youth centre near a mosque.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/379831

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic
I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Amusement Park tunnels: https://twitter.com/imshin/status/1721963920464679247 (from IDF)

Tunnels at a university: https://www.reddit.com/r/2ndYomKippurWar/comments/17q5uyw/video_of_the_exposure_of_a_tunnel_shaft_and_its/ (yeah, reddit post, and a very biased subreddit, but it's video footage and not just a tweet)

Here's that tweet where the IDF claims the ambulance was being used by Hamas https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1720510816930157050 (again, I already said I dont trust what they say, but I do trust what I see in videos). I know we've already seen it, I'm just adding this since I mentioned it in my last post.

Paladinus posted:

The one thing I saw publicised recently was a rocket launching site claimed to be in a youth centre near a mosque.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/379831

There's also a video (/claim) showing that the launch center (which I see repeatedly referred to as a "command center", I'm sure many people would disagree with that definition of "command center") was under the mosque itself. Will edit this when/if I find the combined video - I know it's somewhere, and I'm pretty sure I saw additional footage not included in that above link. There is so much carnage and gore to have to sift through to find these things, and it's demoralizing as gently caress. There's only so much I can take a day.

Those are the four claims I made. Elementary schools, universities, mosques, and amusement parks.

Main Paineframe posted:

it doesn't sound like any of the videos you've seen show any Hamas command centers under hospitals, which is the exact claim you were trying to rebut

I didnt make any claims about hospitals (you'll note, as above, I was rebutting that they do use schools, mosques, etc), because I've only seen IDF statements saying they're using hospitals, or historical proof they've used hospitals, I havent seen any video yet of footage from hospitals proving it, from the current war. Again, I believe trusting anything that IDF (or Hamas) says at face value, is frankly dumb.

Historically, there is plenty of proof that Hamas has used hospitals in the past to hide weapons, command centers, etc. It's not that big a stretch to believe they're still doing it, but without proof, no, i dont believe the IDF.

---

I could just as easily find videos of mutilated Palestinian children killed by airstrikes, or Palestinians murdered by Hamas. There are also videos of IDF protecting Palestinians to evacuate down corridors that, as the claims go, Hamas was shooting people trying to leave. Both sides are commiting war crimes. War is loving disgusting, and hasn't really changed.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

mitztronic fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Nov 8, 2023

The Sean
Apr 17, 2005

Am I handsome now?


mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Amusement Park tunnels: https://twitter.com/imshin/status/1721963920464679247 (from IDF)


All that shows is a hole in the ground. Not tunnels and not even one tunnel singlular.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Amusement Park tunnels: https://twitter.com/imshin/status/1721963920464679247 (from IDF)


this looks nothing like the tunnels we've seen in Hamas' videos. It looks more like a cistern or something tbh

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

ASK ME ABOUT MY
UNITED STATES MARINES
FUNKO POPS COLLECTION



Even if that is a tunnel and not a cistern or a basement or a septic tank, some tunnels aren't terror tunnels. Finding any random tunnel and declaring it a Hamas terror tunnel and therefore it's OK to blow up everything near it is just like that old Qanon video of a guy walking around a homeless encampment, finding a rope and saying "this is how they tie up the children they're smuggling to the adrenochrome factory"

Happy Noodle Boy
Jul 3, 2002


That looks like a dry well more than anything.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

ASK ME ABOUT MY
UNITED STATES MARINES
FUNKO POPS COLLECTION



It's also worth noting that Gaza has a pretty bad history of getting bombed. So if they can, they really should be building tunnels under schools and hospitals. So the students and patients have a safer place to go to when they start getting bombed. Like how schools in tornado-prone areas have tornado shelters.

So the burden of proof to establish that an underground structure in Gaza is specifically a terror tunnel is actually pretty high. If you don't have proof that there were weapons in it or people launching attacks from it, sorry, you can't reasonably call it a terror tunnel.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

DelilahFlowers posted:

Now do moving ambulances

They're actually self propelled artillery that Hamas disguises as ambulances. Much like hospitals are missile silos in disguise.

mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Amusement Park tunnels: https://twitter.com/imshin/status/1721963920464679247 (from IDF)

If it's a tunnel why don't they show where it goes. From the video that just looks like a hole in the ground with no exits at the bottom.

Marenghi fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Nov 8, 2023

Pentecoastal Elites
Feb 27, 2007


it is breathtakingly naive to rely on the propaganda of an apartheid ethnostate currently engaged in a genocide to inform you what and where the hamas tunnels and "command centers" are, much less that the occupying force currently engaged in genocidal slaughter is "protecting" the people they're currently, actively killing from their own countrymen. I think if you want to participate in this discussion in good faith you need to come with more substantial evidence than "one of the belligerents in this conflict says so"

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

57001 posted:

israel is wouldn't do it over this, anyway, with their own policy of amimut. too risky. by the definition of amimut, outside of some declassified docs from the vela incident they have never done atmospheric tests. they had access to data from french tests in the 60s, but that's pretty old and can't really tell us much about current capabilities, and israel never had access to two-stage test data since france cut off their data supply before 68.

but the more fun and debateable thing here is that maybe deterrence works (until it fails, to quote jon wolfsthal) but because there is so little data available about israel's forces and they don't acknowledge them, it like. works extra hard. we can make good guesses about where israel keeps their jerichos but ~*~officially~*~ speaking, they don't have any nukes in caves. so how screwed would your rear end feel if you wasted all your conventional means on taking out jericho silos or jerichos in caves that weren't actually carrying nuclear warheads. now you have nothing.



but all of this is moot in the context of gaza, imho, israel's nuclear posture is basically set up solely for retaliation against apocalyptic conventional, or as they would wish it, nuclear attacks from iran.

This was a great post, thanks for making it. Nuclear warfare and weaponry are part of my degree specialization but I focused almost exclusively on the Soviet nuclear arsenal so my knowledge of Israeli nukes is pretty limited.

DelilahFlowers
Jan 10, 2020

mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Amusement Park tunnels: https://twitter.com/imshin/status/1721963920464679247 (from IDF)

Tunnels at a university: https://www.reddit.com/r/2ndYomKippurWar/comments/17q5uyw/video_of_the_exposure_of_a_tunnel_shaft_and_its/ (yeah, reddit post, and a very biased subreddit, but it's video footage and not just a tweet)

Here's that tweet where the IDF claims the ambulance was being used by Hamas https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1720510816930157050 (again, I already said I dont trust what they say, but I do trust what I see in videos). I know we've already seen it, I'm just adding this since I mentioned it in my last post.

There's also a video (/claim) showing that the launch center (which I see repeatedly referred to as a "command center", I'm sure many people would disagree with that definition of "command center") was under the mosque itself. Will edit this when/if I find the combined video - I know it's somewhere, and I'm pretty sure I saw additional footage not included in that above link. There is so much carnage and gore to have to sift through to find these things, and it's demoralizing as gently caress. There's only so much I can take a day.

Those are the four claims I made. Elementary schools, universities, mosques, and amusement parks.

I didnt make any claims about hospitals (you'll note, as above, I was rebutting that they do use schools, mosques, etc), because I've only seen IDF statements saying they're using hospitals, or historical proof they've used hospitals, I havent seen any video yet of footage from hospitals proving it, from the current war. Again, I believe trusting anything that IDF (or Hamas) says at face value, is frankly dumb.

Historically, there is plenty of proof that Hamas has used hospitals in the past to hide weapons, command centers, etc. It's not that big a stretch to believe they're still doing it, but without proof, no, i dont believe the IDF.

---

I could just as easily find videos of mutilated Palestinian children killed by airstrikes, or Palestinians murdered by Hamas. There are also videos of IDF protecting Palestinians to evacuate down corridors that, as the claims go, Hamas was shooting people trying to leave. Both sides are commiting war crimes. War is loving disgusting, and hasn't really changed.
Yoy should be permabaned you sick gently caress

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Zulily Zoetrope
Jun 1, 2011

Muldoon
Have any of these claims ever been independently verified? The only things I've seen from a non-Hamas/IDF source are things like weapons being found at an abandoned UN school, Hamas operating in al-Shifa a decade ago, or a member of Islamic Jihad launching a rocket from a protected rooftop.

I'm going to assume that Hamas is not actually stashing arsenals and operations under UN-protected safe zones so long as no aid workers are claiming otherwise and the IDF can't produce anything better than footage of holes they claim to be terror tunnels.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Zulily Zoetrope posted:

Have any of these claims ever been independently verified? The only things I've seen from a non-Hamas/IDF source are things like weapons being found at an abandoned UN school, Hamas operating in al-Shifa a decade ago, or a member of Islamic Jihad launching a rocket from a protected rooftop.

I'm going to assume that Hamas is not actually stashing arsenals and operations under UN-protected safe zones so long as no aid workers are claiming otherwise and the IDF can't produce anything better than footage of holes they claim to be terror tunnels.

That's also a form of selection bias so be careful with how much stringency you put on an independent verifier definition. Keep in mind it's an active war zone where aid is not meaningfully being allowed in (which limits your independent verifiers to the aid workers currently under bombardment and attack) so you may need to be less strict about whose word you believe for verification purposes. Don't put so much weight on the words of a handful of aid workers if you also have a high volume of voices on the ground you can turn to as well (Gazan voices specifically)

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

Yeah, I think the one I posted is the most convincing of the bunch, and it is still not 100% convincing. Videos where you can only see a hole in the ground are basically worthless as far as real evidence goes. When the IDF wanted to justify their bombing of a refugee camp, they had no problem of posting a video of them raiding some kind of an outpost and showing defence plans they found (or 'found') here, so it's highly suspicious that here they chose to only show a non-descript hole or a door leading to what can be a regular cellar.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


Actual death toll for children in Gaza likely nearing 6000.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

mitztronic posted:

I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.):

...

There's also a video (/claim) showing that the launch center (which I see repeatedly referred to as a "command center", I'm sure many people would disagree with that definition of "command center") was under the mosque itself. Will edit this when/if I find the combined video - I know it's somewhere, and I'm pretty sure I saw additional footage not included in that above link. There is so much carnage and gore to have to sift through to find these things, and it's demoralizing as gently caress. There's only so much I can take a day.

To be clear, you don't have to provide video evidence of everything you post in this thread. The reason I asked about the videos is because you said you'd already seen the videos, and so I assumed you had them on hand and could just go quickly find the ones you'd seen. I'm not expecting you to go digging through Twitter hunting for stuff, but if you're going to say that something's true because you've seen videos of it, then it's perfectly reasonable for people to ask about those videos.

But thanks to you providing those sources, we can scrutinize those claims in greater detail and notice things like the fact that one of those "tunnel entrances" is just a random-rear end hole in the ground, that the IDF doesn't provide any evidence that they're actually tunnel entrances or used for any malicious purpose, and so on. We also see the general quality of the sources, ranging from a Twitter account dedicated to presenting Gaza as safe and prosperous to a subreddit dedicated to posting pro-Israel coverage of the Gaza invasion (which they've named "the 2nd Yom Kippur War").

A door leading underground isn't evidence that Hamas is terrible. Even in the US, there's plenty of civilian buildings with basements, wells, septic systems, or other underground infrastructure. Just a brief glimpse at some hole in the ground or door leading underground isn't enough to say for sure that it's linked to a tunnel system. And even if it is, that doesn't mean it's being used for strictly military purposes. For example, one reason Israel is so insistent that there's underground facilities beneath Al-Shifa Hospital is that Israel built those underground facilities during the occupation period. They did a big grand showy renovation of Al-Shifa as a prestige project, and as part of that project they added several strongly-built concrete basement levels to the hospital.

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic
What type of evidence would be required to “prove” that Hamas is using civilian infrastructure? It sounds like there is no possible evidence, as anything against Hamas is going to come from the IDF.

Likewise, the same standard does not seem to apply to Hamas (in this thread). It’s weird. They’re both evil, but Hamas claims can be parroted here without much pushback. It’s difficult to navigate.

I’ve been consuming footage from both sides (both are obviously propaganda, so it’s very difficult to try to understand what we’re seeing), trying to better my understanding. Both sides are committing war crimes, Israel is killing more people, objectively. All the meanwhile we have posters saying I should be permabanned for being a sick gently caress. I don’t get it.

Noobicide
Sep 12, 2007

Dubar posted:

No matter who is hiding in a hospital, you are still a horrible monster for bombing a hospital.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

mitztronic posted:

Here's that tweet where the IDF claims the ambulance was being used by Hamas https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1720510816930157050 (again, I already said I dont trust what they say, but I do trust what I see in videos). I know we've already seen it, I'm just adding this since I mentioned it in my last post.

I would love to see an actual video with proof that ambulances have been used by Hamas, given that the actual images and footage out of the Al-Shifa bombing only seemed to show dead civilians

mitztronic posted:

Historically, there is plenty of proof that Hamas has used hospitals in the past to hide weapons, command centers, etc. It's not that big a stretch to believe they're still doing it, but without proof, no, i dont believe the IDF.

This is also another claim that could use some evidence, because the best anyone's been able to find is an abandoned building was used by members of Hamas back in 07.

mitztronic posted:

There are also videos of IDF protecting Palestinians to evacuate down corridors that, as the claims go, Hamas was shooting people trying to leave. Both sides are commiting war crimes. War is loving disgusting, and hasn't really changed.

Also I would like to see evidence for this, since all I can find is the IDF saying that they came under fire once while "trying to open the road temporarily for civilians" which was made without any evidence. In fact the only thing I can find that indicates anyone fired at fleeing civilians is this quote from Nour Naji Abu Nasser, “They fired at the sand around us. They wanted to scare us." which does not specify who did the firing but given the context it sounds like it was the IDF firing at them.

TGLT fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Nov 8, 2023

Zulily Zoetrope
Jun 1, 2011

Muldoon

HonorableTB posted:

That's also a form of selection bias so be careful with how much stringency you put on an independent verifier definition. Keep in mind it's an active war zone where aid is not meaningfully being allowed in (which limits your independent verifiers to the aid workers currently under bombardment and attack) so you may need to be less strict about whose word you believe for verification purposes. Don't put so much weight on the words of a handful of aid workers if you also have a high volume of voices on the ground you can turn to as well (Gazan voices specifically)

I'm not saying Hamas definitely isn't violating UN-mandated neutral zones, just that I won't repeat claims that they are without extraordinary evidence. I understand that it's gonna be hard to get any evidence out in the middle of the ongoing conflict, but it's not like this is the first time Gaza has been under attack. The gun closet at an abandoned UN school came out after Cast Lead, and it was the strongest case of malfeasance that anyone actually managed to prove, which is a lot less severe than anything the IDF had claimed.

And of course Gazans on the ground speaking about Hamas using civilian infrastructure count as well. I didn't mean to imply otherwise, I just haven't heard any claims about that.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


mitztronic posted:

What type of evidence would be required to “prove” that Hamas is using civilian infrastructure? It sounds like there is no possible evidence, as anything against Hamas is going to come from the IDF.

Likewise, the same standard does not seem to apply to Hamas (in this thread). It’s weird. They’re both evil, but Hamas claims can be parroted here without much pushback. It’s difficult to navigate.

I’ve been consuming footage from both sides (both are obviously propaganda, so it’s very difficult to try to understand what we’re seeing), trying to better my understanding. Both sides are committing war crimes, Israel is killing more people, objectively. All the meanwhile we have posters saying I should be permabanned for being a sick gently caress. I don’t get it.

Nobody's been parroting Hamas claims here unless you mean the Ministry of Health which has shown to be accurate in their death counts in the past. There's been a lot of skepticism of Hamas claims of armor they've knocked out in the past couple of pages.

Gaza is a ghetto and an incredibly densely populated one at that. It's fairly difficult bordering on near impossible for any irregular force in such a situation to operate without it being in the vicinity of civilian infrastructure. IDF HQ is in the middle of Tel Aviv. The problem for the IDF is they'll claim a cistern or a building's basement is a "terror tunnel". And of course it doesn't matter if Hamas or anyone else was using civilian buildings that does not allow the IDF to destroy them from the air killing dozens of innocent civilians. If the IDF's actual goal was to eliminate Hamas they would've gone in on the ground day one not drop an ungodly number of bombs and render 40+ percent (probably more now) of residences uninhabitable.

Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Nov 8, 2023

Reik
Mar 8, 2004

mitztronic posted:

What type of evidence would be required to “prove” that Hamas is using civilian infrastructure? It sounds like there is no possible evidence, as anything against Hamas is going to come from the IDF.

Likewise, the same standard does not seem to apply to Hamas (in this thread). It’s weird. They’re both evil, but Hamas claims can be parroted here without much pushback. It’s difficult to navigate.

I’ve been consuming footage from both sides (both are obviously propaganda, so it’s very difficult to try to understand what we’re seeing), trying to better my understanding. Both sides are committing war crimes, Israel is killing more people, objectively. All the meanwhile we have posters saying I should be permabanned for being a sick gently caress. I don’t get it.

If they don't have evidence that can hold up under scrutiny they should err on the side of caution and just not bomb hospitals.

Which Hamas claims are being parroted?

Both sides are committing war crimes, but one side is a terrorist organization and the other side is supposed to be a legitimate government that doesn't do war crimes.

mitztronic
Jun 17, 2005

mixcloud.com/mitztronic

TGLT posted:

I would love to see an actual video with proof that

I would love this for, essentially, every single piece of information that has come out from both sides. We’ll never get it… maybe for some specific examples, but regardless of what’s posted, individuals that have locked in their side won’t believe what the other side says.

About Hamas and using civ infrastructure - I truly don’t understand how it’s difficult to accept - to the point of people claiming the opposite as fact. They have been doing this, and it’s been documented, for decades. There’s no reason to believe it’s any different now. Tactically, Hamas is the inferior force and strategically their doctrine must utilize civilian buildings for military use.

All this means is neither side is justified. War is full of these types of decisions. Am I surprised that Israel is bombing hospitals? No. Entire cities have been raised to the ground for thousands of years in war. Am I surprised that Hamas is installing and using rocket launches in elementary schools and mosques? Also no. Are they both shocking and awful? Duh?

This is the most information we’ve been able to get from any war, ever. I am not sure that it’s a good thing. And future wars will only have more and more of this type of real time documentation. What’s the best way to process it? Choose a side and only believe that? I still refuse to do that. Maybe I am not being nuanced enough.

The Sean
Apr 17, 2005

Am I handsome now?


mitztronic posted:

I’ve been consuming footage from both sides (both are obviously propaganda, so it’s very difficult to try to understand what we’re seeing),

You posted video of a hole in the ground as footage proof of (as you said) "tunnels." You're not quite consuming footage. It's like reviewing a movie based on a blurb but you already had a positive opinion of the movie based on what you heard about it already.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
I've had enough experience with insurgencies to feel pretty confident that there are almost certainly some cases of Hamas using civilian infrastructure for fighting, logistical, and transport purposes. Any insurgency across the world does the same. What I would dispute heavily are the Israeli claims regarding the extent to which Hamas is using it. Do I think there are tunnels with access points in places like schools or hospital basements or whatever? Sure, statistically there will be. Do I think Hamas does this to EVERY school and civilian infrastructure? Absolutely not, that is an absurd idea. However, Hamas, like other guerrilla forces, are opportunistic and will incorporate some of this into their operations and we know that because we have past proof of Hamas using hospitals for various things in previous conflicts.

Any Israeli claims should be taken with a massive grain of skepticism, but it would be naive to expect every claim they make is made up. Occasionally, they will be telling the truth. Broken clock and all that. How will you know when they're telling the truth though? Good luck!!

selec
Sep 6, 2003

On the topic of how we can know whether or not to trust IDF/Israeli PR on these things, I think there's something going on in the meta that might be important to think about.

Israel isn't trying to convince anyone, they've already decided the sides are clear, and that what they want is to send clear messages to people already in their camp to tamp down any doubt or cognitive dissonance they might experience seeing stuff like kids being dragged from rubble.

It's the Nigerian Prince Email method. The propaganda has to be pitched in such a way that people who might doubt are not going to be convinced, but those who are already in now have a new piece of content to latch on to that helps batten down any doubts.

Nigerian Prince emails suck on purpose because they're at the top of the funnel. You don't waste time on creating the most-perfect seeming scam, because ultimately it can never hold up if somebody's going to google the email and find out what's going on. So you pitch it to people who just aren't the type to google up an email they receive, who just take that email as it's given for being factual. So you actually don't do any work to spruce it up more than you need to, because that adds a lot of people to your funnel you're not ever going to get to the bottom, to the Give Money stage of your process.

I think this is the most generous reading you can give as to why so much of the IDF material we see around seems kinda amateurish to downright obvious bad-faith frauds--stuff so bad that even nominally mainstream sources will start to say "We don't think this is authentic," like the alleged phone call recording that had bad grammar, wasn't representative of actual local speech, and had other issues going on with the audio data itself that made it seem apparent to investigators that it wasn't authentic. They aren't trying to convince us, they're trying to firm up existing support.

That's on purpose. Israel has been long able to leverage enormous pressure via social media or other channels, but that's always been routed through already-existing Zionist channels. The Canary Mission, for instance, is a relatively successful effort, but built entirely on the institutions being targeted (as a way of targeting individuals who in some way depend on that institution) being 100% aligned with Zionist understandings of the world. This used to be a very reliable method, because there was little to no meaningful mainstream pushback against that worldview, and the people who did hold opposing worldviews had very little power, even in so-called Leftist Academia.

This comports with the sophistication of their other propaganda and influence operations--from a technical perspective it can be argued that aside from the US (which buys a lot of this capability from Israel) no state has the ability to spy on an individual better than Israel. They will get into your phone if they want to. They are the definitive State Actor when you get IT Security people together to talk informally. So it's reasonable to say that their non-technical influence operations would be as sophisticated, and if you look at the dominance that Zionist views have held in American politics up until like, last month, that's been borne out by results.

It does reflect really poorly on people who consume that media uncritically, or less critically, because it's essentially saying they've been the target of a successful scam operation, one not intended to take the riskier path of engaging with your rhetorical opponents on any meaningful level, which if successful would widen support for how they're handling the conflict, which you could argue is basically impossible for them to do in the face of the footage emerging from Gaza. If you were an Israeli political operation or IDF propaganda shop, the far safer route is shoring up support where it exists, and not risking trying to do the kind of diplomatic work, which would in fact probably lessen support from your existing die-hards, as they would see it as rhetorical compromise with people they see as not worth the time of day.

edit:

This is not to say that they're not suffering from the Hiring Pepes effect--we've seen this in America, where political shops will hire on true believers and suddenly WHOOPS the messaging sucks because it's being developed from the donkey brains of these true believers not tested against existing metrics. But I don't think that would entirely explain just how amateurish a lot of what we've seen has been.

selec fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Nov 8, 2023

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

mitztronic posted:

I would love this for, essentially, every single piece of information that has come out from both sides. We’ll never get it… maybe for some specific examples, but regardless of what’s posted, individuals that have locked in their side won’t believe what the other side says.

About Hamas and using civ infrastructure - I truly don’t understand how it’s difficult to accept - to the point of people claiming the opposite as fact. They have been doing this, and it’s been documented, for decades. There’s no reason to believe it’s any different now. Tactically, Hamas is the inferior force and strategically their doctrine must utilize civilian buildings for military use.

All this means is neither side is justified. War is full of these types of decisions. Am I surprised that Israel is bombing hospitals? No. Entire cities have been raised to the ground for thousands of years in war. Am I surprised that Hamas is installing and using rocket launches in elementary schools and mosques? Also no. Are they both shocking and awful? Duh?

This is the most information we’ve been able to get from any war, ever. I am not sure that it’s a good thing. And future wars will only have more and more of this type of real time documentation. What’s the best way to process it? Choose a side and only believe that? I still refuse to do that. Maybe I am not being nuanced enough.

Okay but unless I'm misunderstanding it, "again, I already said I dont trust what they say, but I do trust what I see in videos" suggests you specifically have videos that support the IDF's claims here.

Are they using civilian infrastructure? We know that they have at least used abandoned buildings, yes. But are they using, specifically, the Al-Shifa hospital, right now? There's no evidence. That's the issue - it's one thing to say "Hamas has used civilian infrastructure" and "Hamas is using <insert building here>"

The elementary school thing is a good example - the actual evidence that the IDF provided is footage of rocket launchers in a Palestinian Scout Association building. Or at least it was one judging by the wall mural. Was it still in use? How recently were the launchers placed there? Neither of these videos provide any specifics as to where they were filmed, which might lead to evidence undermining the argument that Hamas is using buildings that are actively being used by civilians as well.

TGLT fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Nov 8, 2023

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014



The comparison to the Nigerian prince scam is spot on - I was seeing ostensibly liberal people on bluesky defending Israel's bombing by showing a map of tunnels from 2014 (source: IDF of course) and the bombing saturation of the current campaign and how they lined up. They legitimately had no idea what I was getting at when I told them to look at a population density map of Gaza.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
Today the 6th group of foreign nationals/dual-citizens were allowed to leave gaza. No brazilians were allowed out, again, despite the country being one of the first to supply a list of its people, and the brazilian diplomacy corps, Itamaraty, being assured that this would be the time.

People released from Gaza by nationality today:

Ukraine 228
Philipines 107
USA 100
Canada 40
Germany 70
Romenia 51

There's talk that the israeli ambassador in Brazil, who was and is very close with the Bolsonaro mega-chud clan that was in ower until recently, is deliberately throwing a wrench in the proceedings to make the new government seem weak, but nothing is confirmed.

https://jornalggn.com.br/oriente-medio/brasileiros-seguem-fora-da-6-lista-autorizados-deixar-gaza/

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply