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Leon Sumbitches posted:Anyway, This is the definition of anecdote or not data, but for what it's worth there it is. No, I genuinely appreciated it. It's a good story. Anecdotes might not be scientific, but they are genuinely important to our experience in the world and informative. But again, Beshear flipped a county that went +60% for Trump in KY. I can believe that there are a decent chunk of people who voted Democratic who are going to vote republican as a protest vote in 2024 or will only vote at all for Trump. But swings like that literally a year out tell me there is no way Trump is really up +5 and +9 in some spaces.
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Nov 9, 2023 03:44
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm assuming they might be talking about Bernie vs Hillary, and the DNC very much put it's thumb on the scale in that primary election in 2016. This line of argument always annoyed the poo poo out of me. Bernie, as cool of a dude as he is, is not a democrat. He just caucuses with them, but he's not part of the party. Clinton has always been a loyal democrat and she worked hard for years for the party. Of course the party is going to 'put the thumb on the scale ' as you put it for a loyalist.
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Nov 9, 2023 03:57
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Cimber posted:This line of argument always annoyed the poo poo out of me. Bernie, as cool of a dude as he is, is not a democrat. He just caucuses with them, but he's not part of the party. Clinton has always been a loyal democrat and she worked hard for years for the party. Of course the party is going to 'put the thumb on the scale ' as you put it for a loyalist. I always thought it was kinda comical. "Our revolution failed because the establishment didn't fully support us in overthrowing them  " It's just so weak and impotent.
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Nov 9, 2023 04:09
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Why are we talking about 2016?
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Nov 9, 2023 04:16
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Jaxyon posted:They want less fighting, but immediately tried to set you off. As someone who grew up in the South and was surrounded by people like that: that kinda poo poo isn't about picking fights, it's about testing the water to see if a stranger is worth talking to. Does it suck? Absolutely. Do folks immediately drop it if it doesn't stick and talk to you normally afterwards? Almost always. Having "thick skin" is an appreciated cultural thing in many poor working-class areas.
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Nov 9, 2023 04:40
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Kith posted:As someone who grew up in the South and was surrounded by people like that: that kinda poo poo isn't about picking fights, it's about testing the water to see if a stranger is worth talking to. Does it suck? Absolutely. Do folks immediately drop it if it doesn't stick and talk to you normally afterwards? Almost always. Having "thick skin" is an appreciated cultural thing in many poor working-class areas. I grew up in poor rural northeast and it's no different, and also I'll stand by what I said.
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Nov 9, 2023 04:43
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Whatever floats your boat.
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Nov 9, 2023 04:55
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or you could not be an a-hole on first meetings? god no wonder "try that in a small town" keep getting smaller. even if they had okay economics or even current and projected growth the social atmosphere sucks poo poo.
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Nov 9, 2023 05:20
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PhazonLink posted:or you could not be an a-hole on first meetings? god no wonder "try that in a small town" keep getting smaller. even if they had okay economics or even current and projected growth the social atmosphere sucks poo poo. Who are you addressing with this comment?
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Nov 9, 2023 05:27
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PhazonLink posted:or you could not be an a-hole on first meetings? That's certainly an ideal solution, but unfortunately the "tough love" and "jus' kiddin'" forms of Overly Familiar Playful Rudeness are deeply rooted in many cultures of this country of ours.
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Nov 9, 2023 05:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It seems very unlikely that Trump is going to increase his share of the black vote by 350% of what he got in 2016 and nearly triple the best previous Republican performance among black voters in history. I mean there's been fairly consistent polling for a minute now that has shown Biden's numbers with black voters are really low for a Democrat. September 2023 quote:A new NBC poll, released on Saturday and conducted between September 15-19, found that the president's job approval rating had slipped from 80 percent in 2021 to 63 percent among Black voters. The same survey, of 1,000 registered voters, found Biden still holds 76 percent of the Black vote to 14 percent in favor of former President Donald Trump in a likely match-up. May 2023 quote:Biden’s approval rating among Black adults has fluctuated over his two years in office. As with most demographic groups, the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds his 58% current approval rating among Black adults sitting well below where he began. Roughly 9 in 10 Black adults approved of Biden over his first months in office. February 2022 quote:Roughly two-thirds of Black Protestants (65%) approve of the job that Biden is doing as president, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 10-17. That is down sharply from 92% in March 2021, shortly after he took office. Burying your head in the sand and shouting the polls are just wrong isn't really an argument. It's no different than the Romney people in 2012 unskewing the polls. 
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Nov 9, 2023 05:57
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Pobrecito posted:I mean there's been fairly consistent polling for a minute now that has shown Biden's numbers with black voters are really low for a Democrat. Biden may have lower approval with black voters now than he did previously, but there is no way that Trump pulls nearly 30% of the black vote (which is what those NYT/Sienna polls the other day were showing). That is roughly 4x what he pulled in 2016 and 3x better than the best Republican performance among black voters in modern history. He got 6% before. I would bet you literally any amount of money in the world that Trump does not pull 25-30% of the black vote in 2024.
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Nov 9, 2023 06:02
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FlamingLiberal posted:I don't see the OH abortion thing as a constitutional issue that you can make a court case from. They probably won't be able to do a ton to mess with it, but I am not familiar with the specifics of OH law so I'm not going to say that for sure. I meant the continued disenfranchisement of felons in Florida over unpaid restitution that the court refuses to tell them the exact amount of. I can see it being used as a vessel to enshrine more anti democratic precedent wrt felon voting rights.
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Nov 9, 2023 06:03
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Leon Sumbitches posted:The first response I got to a lot of people when I told him I was from New York was some attempt to trigger me, a racist comment Some real salt of the earth people, dropping the N word upon first learning I am from the North
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Nov 9, 2023 06:45
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Pobrecito posted:I mean there's been fairly consistent polling for a minute now that has shown Biden's numbers with black voters are really low for a Democrat. Well, either those poll crosstabs are correct and Republicans are going to get much higher black support in 2024 than they have since the civil rights movement despite there having been no signs of that in recent elections, or maybe some polls a year before the election have weird results in subsamples with 10% margins of error. I know which one I'm choosing. James Garfield fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Nov 9, 2023 |
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Nov 9, 2023 07:15
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Asling why right-wingers apparently vote against their own interests is a longstanding puzzle to Dems, but the answers are extremely simple. 1) They generally don't think they are doing that. They are bombarded with constant lies that economic problems are actually caused by the other side, and the Republicans are the ones trying to make sure things run efficiently and fairly. There are also very strong dogwhistles here where the implications and inferences are that unemployment or disability will be cut for *those people* - the lazy minorities getting a free ride, the illegals who just show up and get generous benefits. 2) There are also plenty of occasions where people do think that a certain vote will hurt them economically, but they are willing to take that hit because they think another matter is more important. Zealots who care more about controlling women, fascists who would gladly turn the economy radioactive as long as it hurt minorities even 1% more than them, whatever.
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Nov 9, 2023 10:36
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Nervous posted:I meant the continued disenfranchisement of felons in Florida over unpaid restitution that the court refuses to tell them the exact amount of. I can see it being used as a vessel to enshrine more anti democratic precedent wrt felon voting rights.
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Nov 9, 2023 12:27
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koolkal posted:Some real salt of the earth people, dropping the N word upon first learning I am from the North Eh, no anti Black racism. More "funny" stories about this or that stereotype. Clearly you've never been around these types so I'll not describe it further.
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Nov 9, 2023 12:50
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I live with these people. Yes, they’re charming because you can be racist, sexist, transphopic, and want any number of authoritarian policies and be charming. These people aren’t orcs or goblins. They’ve shown us who they are by the people they vote for. Things can change, but don’t count on quick and it probably will come with demographic/generational shifts.
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Nov 9, 2023 13:55
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If they're "tired of all the fighting", maybe don't vote for or support the party that specifically bills itself as out to own the libs constantly and loudly in every form of communication across society? That might stop the fighting, just a thought. Supporting them certainly isn't going to stop it because the people on the other side of that "fight" are groups like trans people who are tired of getting murdered and legislated out of existence. Their choices are literally fight or die. Or parents who would prefer to not have their children gunned down in school. Again. Not a lot of wiggle room for negotiation in places like that.
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Nov 9, 2023 14:08
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"Tired of the fighting" is probably the euphemism for "my team is not winning anymore," and as all sports fan know, rooting for losing team makes you, in turn, a loser.
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Nov 9, 2023 14:58
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Nelson Mandingo posted:No, I genuinely appreciated it. It's a good story. Anecdotes might not be scientific, but they are genuinely important to our experience in the world and informative. Theres two big things at play here I should point out for people not from Kentucky: 1. Most of the counties that he flipped (rural) have only around 5-6000 people in them with an electorate of 2000 it does not take that many people voting different for big percentage swings. 2. His biggest swings in his favor in the rural counties were in the Eastern Kentucky coalfields. Unfortunately this is probably not due to the based Appalachian socialist that many online leftists like imagining as half the counties in Eastern Kentucky swung right including the famed Elliott county which was a long-time hold out of ancestral dems and swung 15 points to Cameron although with Beshear still winning. (In 2019 he won it by 19 and Trump won this county by 50 in 2016. The first time a republican won the county in the history of the county). Why was Lee and Powell county (which meet what you described) and other counties different? They were hit hard by a 1000 year flood in July of 22. Around 40 people died. Beshear pulled out every stop in terms of government assistance, expanding UI eligibility and waiving red tape for people to get onto assistance programs like work search requirements as well as red tape for recovery workers like truck drivers transporting supplies not having to stop at weigh stations and out of state electricians being permitted to work if they were helping power restoration. He made extensive in-person visits to the area as well. Beshear flipped those counties because the people there felt like he helped them when they needed it and he made their lives better. That's great and that's how democracy is supposed to work! But thats very different than people being disillusioned with the republican party and their platform or their being a secret silent majority thats going to power Biden through without him changing his strategy. Those same counties voted for the republicans down ticket by the margins you would expect. Beshear was the only dem in Kentucky to win on Tuesday. The others lost by around 20 points and only won the 3 counties Dems in Kentucky can always count on Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort the state capitol). Getting 7% of the republican party to split their ticket for you is impressive. But it was something Beshear did through things that were unique and specific to Kentucky and unique to his strengths as a candidate. Strengths that Biden doesn't really have. Biden isn't done. A year's a long time. But he's a very very weak candidate. And he needs to take that seriously instead of hoping Republicans fumble the football again.
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Nov 9, 2023 15:15
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:; yeah i dont think the dems win kentucky in 24 nationally or anything. hell i doubt they flip any red states in general. My view is they probably keep the flip states they need and win them by somewhat larger margins depending on the senate/house canidates running. I think PA goes blue for example. casey is popular and the GOP is still searching for a canidate who isnt a nut to run and is afraid they some new nut will sweep the primary like masterano did. most of the moderate rich canidtaes are out of state weirdos who probably won't do as well either. I think biden has a bunch of weakness but i dont think he is a very very weak canidate. least not yet.
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Nov 9, 2023 15:44
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Gumball Gumption posted:Why are we talking about 2016? I think mostly to compare and contrast where we're at now in the wake of Tuesday's results as well as previous elections since then. Sizing up how the MAGA movement and the dem's general response to it shapes current elections.
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Nov 9, 2023 16:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i dont think the dems win kentucky in 24 nationally or anything. hell i doubt they flip any red states in general. My view is they probably keep the flip states they need and win them by somewhat larger margins depending on the senate/house canidates running. I think PA goes blue for example. casey is popular and the GOP is still searching for a canidate who isnt a nut to run and is afraid they some new nut will sweep the primary like masterano did. most of the moderate rich canidtaes are out of state weirdos who probably won't do as well either. I think biden has a bunch of weakness but i dont think he is a very very weak canidate. least not yet. Ohio went for Obama twice and given this recent election I think there is a good chance it might be back to being a battleground state. Sherrod being up for reelection might really help too.
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Nov 9, 2023 16:34
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Shooting Blanks posted:John Kasich, former Governor of Ohio and Presidential candidate, is on video saying basically "We shouldn't leave some things up to democracy, like abortion and marijuana!" Did Kasich say that too? I only saw Rick [Frothy Mixture of Semen, Blood, and Fecal Matter] say that. Pobrecito posted:I mean there's been fairly consistent polling for a minute now that has shown Biden's numbers with black voters are really low for a Democrat. Poor approval numbers for Biden don't automatically translate into support for Trump.
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Nov 9, 2023 16:35
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I wonder if this is going to pull any threads. I’m not sure this kind of thing matters anymore. https://www.npr.org/2023/11/08/1211672624/3-are-charged-with-running-sex-ring-that-catered-to-politicians-military-and-oth quote:BOSTON — Three people have been charged with running a sophisticated commercial sex ring in Massachusetts and eastern Virginia that catered to well-connected clients such as elected officials and military officers, federal prosecutors said on Wednesday.
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Nov 9, 2023 16:44
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If they name some of the clients then sure But I can't imagine anyone caring much otherwise about a consensual adult hetero sex ring Especially considering Trump is facing charges for trying to coverup payments he made to buy silence from a sex worker he paid lol
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Nov 9, 2023 17:22
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The SAG-AFTRA strike is over, after 118 days on the picket lines and a near-total shutdown of the US visual entertainment industry. A deal has been made, endorsed by the union negotiating committee, and is awaiting final approval from the board, but the strike has already been officially called off and performers may resume working today.quote:If all goes as planned and the board signs off on the tentative deal, eligible members of the 160,000-strong actors guild will vote soon to ratify the new agreement. Also, with SAG-AFTRA pulling the plug on the strike just after midnight and before the ratification vote is completed, people could be back to work soon and production restarted quickly. Details of what's actually in the agreement are not out yet, but presumably it addresses the two issues that precipitated the strike in the first place- streaming royalties and the use of generative AI.
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Nov 9, 2023 17:23
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Biden isn't done. A year's a long time. But he's a very very weak candidate. And he needs to take that seriously instead of hoping Republicans fumble the football again. I would argue that renominating Trump is going to be a very serious fumble. Biden still has to get the ball, take it to the house, or whatever sports analogy you prefer, but putting trump on the ballot is going to likely be an unmitigated disaster for the gop. To continue the sportsball analogy, it would be a fumble on their own 1 yard line, it won't take much effort to take advantage.
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Nov 9, 2023 18:24
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single-mode fiber posted:"Tired of the fighting" is probably the euphemism for "my team is not winning anymore," and as all sports fan know, rooting for losing team makes you, in turn, a loser. You must only know lovely sports fans. It's all about rooting for the underdog, knowing they'll probably come up short but hoping they don't. Unless you're some rear end in a top hat Lakers/Celtics/Yankees/Pats fan. Or worst of all, a Dallas Cowboys fan.
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Nov 9, 2023 18:48
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Nervous posted:You must only know lovely sports fans. It's all about rooting for the underdog, knowing they'll probably come up short but hoping they don't. Unless you're some rear end in a top hat Lakers/Celtics/Yankees/Pats fan. Or worst of all, a Dallas Cowboys fan. The gently caress you talking about Cowboys fans not supporting the underdog? What do you think we've been doing for almost 30 years now? 
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Nov 9, 2023 18:59
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Pobrecito posted:Is it revenge porn if you're uhhh having sex on camera on a publicly available cam model website? I know I’m two days and god knows how many posts late but just to give perspective as someone who actually has been in amateur porn with my spouse- The issue isn’t really with anyone knowing it happened or seeing it. We both consented and posted it and there is no way it’s leaving the internet. It’s fine, don’t care. The issue is using it as an attack cudgel. I’ve (and my wife moreso, hooray patriarchy) been shamed for it and like why? We’re married with children, everyone knows what that entails. Having a healthy marital bedroom AND making a few bucks in the deal? Hell yeah! Where is the part to be ashamed of? Anyways sorry in advance if this is a tmi derail about my dong but it hits close to home
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Nov 9, 2023 19:31
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Anyways sorry in advance if this is a tmi derail about my dong but it hits close to home we knew when you signed up you weren't edgar allen prude
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Nov 9, 2023 19:37
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Rigel posted:I would argue that renominating Trump is going to be a very serious fumble. Biden still has to get the ball, take it to the house, or whatever sports analogy you prefer, but putting trump on the ballot is going to likely be an unmitigated disaster for the gop. To continue the sportsball analogy, it would be a fumble on their own 1 yard line, it won't take much effort to take advantage. I am not inclined to disagree that it will be a disaster for them, but I can not see it in terms of deliberate action or strategy from the GOP – these are not decisions they can make anymore, and these errors have already been made years ago. No future action will betray the trajectory of the mob.
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Nov 9, 2023 19:46
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https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1722672384019144713 Lol that they think they could pull this off. Anyway, this is why they're still having debates and running for second place in the GOP nomination, because they think if Trump gets convicted he'll go quietly into the night never seen nor heard from again.
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Nov 9, 2023 19:51
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:I know I’m two days and god knows how many posts late but just to give perspective as someone who actually has been in amateur porn with my spouse-
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Nov 9, 2023 19:51
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Yeah, it's not that they *want* to renominate Trump, it's that there is no clear path to anyone else being the nominee. The voters want Trump in sufficient numbers that there is no amount of backroom shenanigans that can dislodge him while still calling the proceedings a traditional primary
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Nov 9, 2023 19:51
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FlamingLiberal posted:I definitely don’t think those kinds of attacks really work that well anymore It worked enough on Susanna Gibson, sadly.
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Nov 9, 2023 19:54
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FlamingLiberal posted:I definitely don’t think those kinds of attacks really work that well anymore Yeah, but she lost by less than 1k votes, it's probably effective enough. Key facts that need to go into consideration are that AP had this story and spiked it because it was unethical and could run afoul of VA's revenge porn laws. Then the GOP operatives shopped the story to WaPo, who jumped all over it. From that story: quote:Daniel P. Watkins, a lawyer for Gibson, said disseminating the videos constitutes a violation of the state’s revenge porn law, which makes it a Class 1 misdemeanor to “maliciously” distribute nude or sexual images of another person with “intent to coerce, harass, or intimidate.” It's a salacious article with no news value that the Post was willing to run on behalf of a GOP opposition group, and it probably cost Gibson that election. The "publicly available" videos were from people who made unauthorized recordings and posted them elsewhere.
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Nov 9, 2023 19:57
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