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I wanted to say comically superior, but didn't want to sound too aggressive
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Nov 11, 2023 15:15
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bird food bathtub posted:The rate Ukraine has been popping boats there would seem to be far beyond the replacement capability of the infrastructure. Stuff like a sub or their missile-terrorizing boats is a year plus to build I think? Boat-knowers around here would be better sources on that. We're seeing videos of two or three of them getting extra crispy or extra sink-y every week or so. That's gonna add up. And yes, it is adding up. Ukraine has reopened shipping lanes to Odessa and they are being used by normal shipping concerns (albeit at a much reduced rate in comparison to pre-war), breaking the Russian blockade.
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Nov 11, 2023 16:04
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They take like a decade just for upgrades and refitting on some of them too, if not longer.
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Nov 11, 2023 17:36
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DTurtle posted:If you look at the current ships of the Russian Navy just recently commissioned, then it took more than a decade for a frigate, 8 years for a corvette, 15 years for a landing ship, but only ~3 years for every Kilo-class conventional attack submarine (like the one recently destroyed). The Russian Navy is fighting with what it had before the war or already had in the pipeline. In addition, Russia can't transfer any ships outside the Black Sea into the Black Sea and use from there as that route is blocked off by Turkey and NATO. Yeah, that's kind of the problem I was describing - Yes, Russia still has boats in Crimea. But they had to move most of them to the furthest port possible to avoid getting struck, and a lot of them are basically locked in port due to the defenses they've put up to prevent Unmanned Boats hitting them. If your enemy cannot move and cannot project power, then they are effectively useless, especially as a Navy.
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Nov 11, 2023 18:17
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So how big is the Black Sea fleet? How much has been destroyed? 5%, 50%?
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Nov 11, 2023 18:40
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my kinda ape posted:So how big is the Black Sea fleet? was
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Nov 11, 2023 18:43
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PurpleXVI posted:https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1722225647752540351 They are operating 95% within their home country I know the US can almost literally never be invaded but I’m sure the CIA would be potent domestically
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Nov 11, 2023 18:46
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my kinda ape posted:So how big is the Black Sea fleet? How much has been destroyed? 5%, 50%? It's mostly intact, it's lost maybe 10-15% of it's numbers. However, without the Moskva, it's severely impaired in air defense capability, which appears to have been insufficient in the first place.
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Nov 11, 2023 18:57
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Probably not all of this is new or surprising, but WaPo is pointing the finger at Ukraine over Nord Stream. Sounds like Zelensky maybe is not in total control of the military (whether or not he is supposed to be under Ukraine’s laws, I don't know). Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/ quote:Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, was the “coordinator” of the Nord Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines. On Sept. 26, 2022, three explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The attack left only one of the four gas links in the network intact as winter approached.
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Nov 11, 2023 19:15
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That broadly aligns with earlier German reporting that it was pretty commonly believed in intelligence circles, and the active investigation, that Ukraine did it. Committing a major act of war against their benefactors may not, perhaps, have been the best course of action.
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Nov 11, 2023 19:55
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What are their sources. Because since its happened every reliable source has pointed to Ukraine *Not* doing it.
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Nov 11, 2023 20:00
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Yeah, this would seem like some classic propaganda in that it both paints the Ukrainian army as "out of control" of civilian authorities, and Russian propaganda has been all "oh no your Western guns could end up aaaaaaaaaaaaaanywhere!" since day one, and also in going "oh no, the Ukrainians are hurting their own supporters!" Mind you: hell yeah if the Ukrainians blew up Nordstream, gently caress that project which was just a way for Germany to fund the Russian war machine. As a European I support this attack on "us" 100%.
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Nov 11, 2023 20:02
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https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...94-942d4a665778 That's the article I was referring to. It went into more detail on the ship believed to have been used for the attack.
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Nov 11, 2023 20:30
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Wasn't it already pretty clear that there was a Russian ship where Nordstream blew up, along with a lot of evidence that Russia did it?
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Nov 11, 2023 21:42
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I've not seen any evidence Russia did it, certainly nothing as coherent as the Washington Post and Spiegel reporting. And as other people have said in the past, it's a majority Russian pipeline; if they had gotten wind of an operation against it, as multiple Nato intelligence agencies apparently did, it would make perfect sense for them to have moved ships out there. Confidence is very high that the boat in the Spiegel article is the one which blew up the pipeline, down to explosive residue having been found on-board.
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Nov 11, 2023 22:26
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The X-man cometh posted:Wasn't it already pretty clear that there was a Russian ship where Nordstream blew up, along with a lot of evidence that Russia did it? Yea. The Russian vessel was hanging around the area a bunch. I wouldn't trust wapo about the color of my poo poo let alone this.
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Nov 11, 2023 22:58
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Forums user called "Lovely Joe Stalin" is sure Russia didn't do it, right. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 11, 2023 23:46
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Last time I'm pretty sure there was absolutely no actual evidence anywhere. The Spiegel article was a bunch of facts, all of which were "there was a boat, some people were on it, it seems likely those people were involved" and nothing at all beyond that, and lots and lots of breathless speculation. Not sure about the WaPo article, but I remain skeptical
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Nov 12, 2023 00:26
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US (and UK, to a lesser extent) intelligence has so thoroughly infiltrated the Russian military that their lack of immediate public finger pointing leads me to believe that it was the Ukrainians or another sympathetic party. In the context of the moment, it would have made sense that it was Ukraine: Germany was still giving Russia 1am booty calls for gas, and destroying NS1/2 would have been a way of forcing Germany to confront a reality without Russian gas much sooner. Russia sabotaging one of their main levers to control the German government wouldn't make any rational sense. Putin is insane, but he's still got the wherewithal to recognize where he can exert the most political influence.
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Nov 12, 2023 00:31
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jaete posted:Last time I'm pretty sure there was absolutely no actual evidence anywhere. The Spiegel article was a bunch of facts, all of which were "there was a boat, some people were on it, it seems likely those people were involved" and nothing at all beyond that, and lots and lots of breathless speculation. I think the German feds finding "substantial traces of octogen" on a boat rented by people who trace back to Ukraine might be evidence. I am not however a forensic scientist on the investigation team, or a Twitter OSINT account, so I can't say for sure.
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Nov 12, 2023 00:59
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Russia making irrational decisions possibly? Color me shocked if true.
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Nov 12, 2023 01:23
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psydude posted:US (and UK, to a lesser extent) intelligence has so thoroughly infiltrated the Russian military that their lack of immediate public finger pointing leads me to believe that it was the Ukrainians or another sympathetic party. In the context of the moment, it would have made sense that it was Ukraine: Germany was still giving Russia 1am booty calls for gas, and destroying NS1/2 would have been a way of forcing Germany to confront a reality without Russian gas much sooner. Do you have sources for this? I don't recall hearing anything like that.
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Nov 12, 2023 01:47
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I think the German feds finding "substantial traces of octogen" on a boat rented by people who trace back to Ukraine might be evidence. I am not however a forensic scientist on the investigation team, or a Twitter OSINT account, so I can't say for sure. "Traced back to Ukraine" ended up something like a shell company owned by Russians registered in Ukraine, IIRC Anyway, as far as I am concerned, anyone involved in approving Nord Stream 2 should be in jail.
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Nov 12, 2023 01:54
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psydude posted:Germany was still giving Russia 1am booty calls for gas, and destroying NS1/2 would have been a way of forcing Germany to confront a reality without Russian gas much sooner. That's a bit of a mischaracterization; Back in the Summer of '22, Scholz was seen to be bending over backwards to get a spare turbine back to Russia when Gazprom claimed they had to shut down Nord Stream because the sanctions prevented maintenance. However, there's two good explanations to this. First, to make it absolutely clear to the German constituency, especially the more pro-Russian inclined ones, that no, this isn't sanctions back-firing, this is the Kremlin loving around. And second, and this is very German, to cross all the t's and dot all the i's for German companies to have ironclad evidence when they take Gazprom to arbitration court for breach of contract. This was already on the horizon when Nord Stream was blown up, which, unfortunately, allowed Gazprom to claim force majeure. But in light of what's been leaked from the investigation, it does seem more likely that someone in Ukraine got really antsy about Germany wavering in its support from these shenanigans. And IIRC Russia is still supplying parts of Europe like its buddy Austria by transitting gas through Ukraine, and Ukraine gets a cut, and its own gas supply, from that. The fear wasn't entirely unfounded that Russia might shut that down in the middle of Winter and reroute its commitments through NS1. Blowing it up took that option off the table. Anyhow, there's plenty of uncertainty for everyone to interpret the facts as they see fit, but the leaks and news that have come out of the US and Germany, and the lack thereof out of Denmark and Sweden, point more towards damage control of a poorly conceived Ukrainian op, rather than some fiendishly clever Russian false flag. Because if the Russians had been as competent in this as they've been everywhere else, there'd be plenty of evidence by now.
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Nov 12, 2023 02:39
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EasilyConfused posted:Do you have sources for this? I don't recall hearing anything like that. This patch is pretty descriptive to how world power intel agencies are. If something exists and they want to know it, there's a fair chance they can find out about it. Five Eyes(US/UK/CAN/AUS/NZ) is also the most potent spy ring in the world, if it exists, they likely know about it.
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Nov 12, 2023 02:40
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orange juche posted:This patch is pretty descriptive to how world power intel agencies are. If something exists and they want to know it, there's a fair chance they can find out about it. Five Eyes(US/UK/CAN/AUS/NZ) is also the most potent spy ring in the world, if it exists, they likely know about it. A unit patch used by a group that launches satellites isn't exactly evidence of infiltration capability.
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Nov 12, 2023 02:48
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EasilyConfused posted:A unit patch used by a group that launches satellites isn't exactly evidence of infiltration capability. Do you think someone would do that, just go on a uniform and lie.
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Nov 12, 2023 02:52
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Apparently "the octopus" was a dumb nerd injoke about the wiring harness for the satellite taking over the whole program
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Nov 12, 2023 02:54
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EasilyConfused posted:A unit patch used by a group that launches satellites isn't exactly evidence of infiltration capability. Ehh, it wasn't meant to imply that NRO knows whodunnit, they do satellite and signals poo poo, not humint, and humint would be the people who might know what happened. (Though, NRO does make some really snazzy pictures of interesting things)
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Nov 12, 2023 03:06
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It's a fun little propaganda piece the team made up! Let's not overthink the patch.
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Nov 12, 2023 03:13
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Back on topic, please. The octopus patch isn’t the topic.
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Nov 12, 2023 03:28
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Tunicate posted:Apparently "the octopus" was a dumb nerd injoke about the wiring harness for the satellite taking over the whole program I can believe this 100%. Rigid wiring harnesses for space craft are absurd. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 12, 2023 03:58
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Related to the above guy sitting in a Kyiv jail cell claiming he did it, if what he was saying was close to the mark, then it wouldn't have left that jail cell. Any meetings between him and anyone who could have leaked that kind of info would be recorded, and his mail inspected. So, not really going to put a lot of weight on his claim.
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Nov 12, 2023 04:36
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orange juche posted:This patch is pretty descriptive to how world power intel agencies are. If something exists and they want to know it, there's a fair chance they can find out about it. Five Eyes(US/UK/CAN/AUS/NZ) is also the most potent spy ring in the world, if it exists, they likely know about it. Ok so the source is "trust me bro" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 12, 2023 05:22
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spankmeister posted:Ok so the source is "trust me bro" Isn't that how all spycraft claims go in the absence of hard proof? The guy in the jail cell is going off of "trust me bro, I was on a sail boat in the middle of the Baltic Sea and we totally blew up that pipeline" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 12, 2023 05:39
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orange juche posted:Isn't that how all spycraft works in the absence of hard proof? No and that's not what the statement was. The statement was: psydude posted:US (and UK, to a lesser extent) intelligence has so thoroughly infiltrated the Russian military[...] Which might very well be true, or not, but is a completely baseless statement. You then replied "lookit dis cool patch this proves it". I have no idea if the US or UK agencies have any human sources inside the Russian military or not. Presumably they do but the point is I don't know and neither do you or psydude or anyone else outside these agencies. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) spankmeister fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Nov 12, 2023 |
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Nov 12, 2023 06:11
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The patch is irrelevant, but the statement that "US intelligence has so thoroughly infiltrated the Russian military" is pretty much something that can be taken as effectively true due to how much the Russian military leaks to the regular sources of intel, let alone a state sponsored agency with the intent to do so.
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Nov 12, 2023 06:45
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Exemplars of OPSEC, the Russian military is not. Weren't they running around with unencrypted Baofeng shitbox radios and just sending stuff in the clear? I know they had some "state of the art encrypted phone system" that failed to work because the Russian military also destroyed any cell towers they could find in Ukraine, which the phone system they designed relied upon.
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Nov 12, 2023 07:32
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M_Gargantua posted:The patch is irrelevant, but the statement that "US intelligence has so thoroughly infiltrated the Russian military" is pretty much something that can be taken as effectively true due to how much the Russian military leaks to the regular sources of intel, let alone a state sponsored agency with the intent to do so. Exactly. The US and UK knew that Russia was planning to invade months before they actually did and were publicly mentioning it as much as possible. They even had the date of the invasion more or less correct almost two weeks in advance. They were correct about Russia purchasing drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea. Again, this was all released publicly just before it began. So if Russia was planning to sabotage infrastructure supplying gas to a NATO ally, my guess is that they would have heard about it and been talking about it publicly just like they had for these other major events in the war. psydude fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Nov 12, 2023 |
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Nov 12, 2023 09:30
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Unless they decided it would serve their geopolitical goals to let Russia make a mistake like that; calling the invasion ahead of time so publicly was a method of giving Putin an off ramp where he won something (the ability to make biden look like a moron), and if Putin did invade it would give a payoff instead. Stopping Russia from blowing up their pipeline didn't serve American interests
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Nov 12, 2023 11:00
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