(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Tai posted:Terriotorial gains, Russia is up. Not really sure you can call it up though as it's a few square KM over the last month for an insane amount of tank/IFV losses. Probably been one of the worst 4 weeks for Russian losses since the start of the war. That's what I figured. I have a co-worker who's a little on the alt-news side of things, but he's also the only person who has any sort of interest in the topic. His take is that Ukraine has essentially run out of gas and that from now on it's going to be Russia pushing ahead. I countered that Ukraine is ceding territory to avoid taking massive losses themselves while allowing Russia to waste troops and material. The point being is that Ukraine is not pulling a "not one step back" and is instead allowing Russia to throw more meat into the grinder so that they can exploit that at a later date.
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Nov 13, 2023 14:53
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UA is running out of gas though but so is Russia if they want to continue with its current losses. But all it takes is a couple of UA gently caress ups or Russia to get its poo poo together and you could see a UA front collapse. Russia is still very much odds on favourite imo to see this through. Just at what long term cost for Russia.
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Nov 13, 2023 15:05
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This isn't really dissimilar to how things have been going until now. It's a reasonable tradeoff for some time as long as there's a way to reverse this at some point. Russia should run out of equipment before the Western MIC but we'd have to make a bit of effort so I dunno...
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Nov 13, 2023 15:08
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War on the Rocks released a new podcast episode with Michael Kofman titled Some preliminary thoughts on Ukraine's position in the war. Highlights:
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Nov 13, 2023 15:27
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:
lol
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Nov 13, 2023 15:31
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Shaman Tank Spec posted:True. You barely hear anything from Finnish pagans these days in general though. From an cultural standpoint (divorced from lunatic political psychos), that's pretty sad.
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Nov 13, 2023 15:33
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Samovar posted:From an cultural standpoint (divorced from lunatic political psychos), that's pretty sad. It absolutely isn't sad.
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Nov 13, 2023 15:38
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Blistex posted:That's what I figured. I have a co-worker who's a little on the alt-news side of things, but he's also the only person who has any sort of interest in the topic. His take is that Ukraine has essentially run out of gas and that from now on it's going to be Russia pushing ahead. I countered that Ukraine is ceding territory to avoid taking massive losses themselves while allowing Russia to waste troops and material. The point being is that Ukraine is not pulling a "not one step back" and is instead allowing Russia to throw more meat into the grinder so that they can exploit that at a later date. It's unclear who is taking the largest losses and what the impact of these battles will be in the longer run, but at least Ukraine's counteroffensive failed this year, while Russia was able to conquer the Bakhmut rubble pile. Talk about voluntarily ceding territory is mostly coping behavior. Ukraine doesn't want to lose territory, because it's either lost forever or they'll have to reconquer it some day.
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Nov 13, 2023 16:26
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:[*] Russian equipment and tactics are steadily improving, which makes it even more important that the US and especially Europe commit to supporting Ukrainan efforts. How can this even remotely be true?
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Nov 13, 2023 16:29
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https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1724012806989594723 lmao, I never knew he wrote creepy fiction about girls...
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Nov 13, 2023 16:33
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CommieGIR posted:How can this even remotely be true?
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Nov 13, 2023 16:34
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CommieGIR posted:How can this even remotely be true? Well this isn't helping. Well if the numbers are to be believed that is, I've no idea where the Russian figures are from. 
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Nov 13, 2023 16:56
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Tai posted:https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1724012806989594723 Lol. This dude is assistant DA somehow.
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Nov 13, 2023 16:59
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Neddy Seagoon posted:
Gotta post the sequel, too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6skqOouxuFs
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Nov 13, 2023 17:01
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CommieGIR posted:How can this even remotely be true? https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1724037799832113235 Russia is refurbishing its Soviet stocks, while easily supplied Western (European) equipment is growing short - "the bottom of the barrel is now visible" - and production still has not been ramped up to match or exceed Russia's. Ukraine also has problems dealing with Lancets and Russian EW, and the Lancets are getting improved with longer range and better penetration. Russia may not innovate as quickly, but they're set up to mass produce the things that are proven to work.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:05
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CommieGIR posted:How can this even remotely be true? They're getting better at camouflage, ammo storage is dispersed, their trenches are deep and well reinforced, they make good use of Orlan drones to spot attacking Ukrainian units, they've made the kill chain from observation to fires much faster over the past year and make heavier use of loitering munitions and Krasnopol rounds to hit those targets than before. Kofman makes it clear it's lethal to underestimate the Russians and credits Zaluzhnyi with not falling into that trap, noting that the kind of mechanised offensives Western advisors were pushing on Ukraine in spring probably would have looked a lot like the Russian push on Avdiivka because of how dangerous defensive tactics have become in Ukraine.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:09
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Shaman Tank Spec posted:Maybe, but Finland has never really been involved in the war on terror. Or really any war since World War II, since then we've just participated in UN peacekeeping missions. But of course, our local right wing idiots are nothing if not impressionable, so they're definitely getting influences from their American idols. Like I posted, it's wild to see them literally copy American republican and alt-right talking points and replacing "democrats" with "the Green Party" or whatever, or just not bothering to edit them in any way and insisting the democrats are operating a paedophile pizza ring in Finland, or some poo poo. You should pick up the book Äärioikeisto Suomessa by Koivulaakso, Brunila and Andersson. It was released in 2012, so isn't super up to date today, but it is super interesting. I haven't finished it yet myself (set it aside and forgot about it at some point  ), but it does discuss how the Finnish far right activists moved away from being absolute jokes with Siitoin at the head, to a lot more online and dangerous form, which we see today in the True Finns and such. As a fun Siitoin fact, there is a Swedish SVT documentary that a friend showed me once about the ferry that goes between Finland and Sweden from the 90s, where Siitoin just happens to pop up because his "nazi party" has a meeting organized there. It turns out to be him, his son and maybe one other guy? All drunk as poo poo, and he starts shouting about how "Jesus is a humanist!" at some lady in a staircase. This guy was how the public viewed nazis as for quite some time, and it is a travesty that they ever managed to "reform" their image so much that they are now in government. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVJGSCCdFJ4 At around 7 minutes 50 seconds he just appears in the most pathetic/hilarious way. The docu is really great for some 90s nostalgia as well. edit: I had forgotten about the old lady getting upset at him lol good for her! Set fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 17:15
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Bertha the Toaster posted:Well this isn't helping. Well if the numbers are to be believed that is, I've no idea where the Russian figures are from. That "if the numbers are to be believed" is the key part here. Because I'm gonna need some citations for Russia cranking out 60 T-90s in 10 months, for instance. E: Set posted:You should pick up the book Äärioikeisto Suomessa by Koivulaakso, Brunila and Andersson. It was released in 2012, so isn't super up to date today, but it is super interesting. Thanks, I will! Shaman Tank Spec fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 17:21
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Shaman Tank Spec posted:That "if the numbers are to be believed" is the key part here. Because I'm gonna need some citations for Russia cranking out 60 T-90s in 10 months, for instance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs This is from a couple of months ago. If you don't watch the video, you can check out the footnotes for sources.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:27
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Tai posted:https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1724012806989594723
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Nov 13, 2023 17:29
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs A lot of the citations are Russian government officials who... you know.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:33
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Shaman Tank Spec posted:A lot of the citations are Russian government officials who... you know. A large part of the video is assessing Russian claims vs OSINT information and known data.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:46
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Honestly, whether or not the RUAF is the second coming of the Keystone Kops or have spontaneously turned into an army of T-800s is irrelevant- the sooner this war ends favourably for the Ukrainians the better, and that can only be done with an increase in Western aid.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:57
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So there's been a lot of noise in Finnish media lately about how Russia is using asylum seekers as a weapon again. The numbers haven't been that high, but they are noticeably increased at some border stations. This kind of hybrid influencing is so goddamn disgusting and dehumanizing, specifically using vulnerable people as a bludgeon against Western nations who do recognize them as human beings. How goddamn hosed up do you have to be to even think about something this evil? Anyway, Yle had an article about the three main ways Russia uses hybrid influencing to harass and bully their neighbors that you guys might find interesting. Author: Mika Mäkeläinen Release date: 13.11.2023 Link to untranslated article: https://yle.fi/a/74-20059989 quote:Russia has three ways to bully neighboring countries, and it has definitely used only one of them against Finland Set fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 18:19
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Is the western industrial complex genuinely unwilling or unable to provide Ukraine with sufficient military means to make warfare to painful for the russians? That seems very stupid and short-sighted. I mean while russia is busy with Ukraine they aren't a threat to the rest of us, but that's going to change if they win. Russia has pulled the mask fully off, and I really don't think anything is off the table for Putin. He might want a chunk of any of our countries. We literally have zero excuse for european military means other than to defend against russia, the only realistic threat. Might as well put it to work for its intended use, it's not as if NATO is losing soldiers. And not ramping up production? I mean come the gently caress on, absent peace in europe we know from a lot of loving experience that no nation in europe is safe. Russia has broken the european peace that NATO and the UN and even the goddamned EU was supposed to help keep and we are really going to do the thumb twiddling thing again against a country with the gdp a fraction western europe? We are really going to do that? Seems quite stupid.
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Nov 13, 2023 18:41
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The "western industrial complex" is happy to provide the aid, but building up capacity that had previously been left to wither away takes time. You also need politicians willing to pay the industrial complex to make the goods that either get sent to Ukraine or get used to replace the older stuff sent to Ukraine. The profit needs to be there for the military industrial complex to come alive. As you can see from some of the people in Hungary and the US and various weird corners of the internet, that political will to use the money in that way can be inconsistent. I've found that you really cannot underestimate the number of people all over the world who are happy to look the other way in the face of an injustice and pretend everything's okay.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:16
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In the case of Germany, Industry is unwilling to make the necessary investments without guaranteed orders and investment from the German government and they have been unable to get that going due to something very similar to the US debt ceiling/government budget shenanigans.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:19
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Nice piece of fish posted:That seems very stupid and short-sighted. Yeah, well that is the neoliberal system rot and EU dysfunction in general for you.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:22
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Tai posted:lmao wtf is Russia doing. The last few weeks have been complete car crash of failed assaults after failed assaults and repeating the same strategy hoping it works this time. So many dead and so much lost equipment. Maybe Ukraine could actually win a war of attrition if this keeps going on. 10-1 russian dead per ukr dead still favors russia, and probably even higher. Relentlessly keeping up assaults means they stop ukranian momentum, and the longer they prolong the slaughter, the longer they give TLIMP and other right wing shitheads time to get elected and torpedo all support. We rightfully point out the weaknesses of dictatorships in engaging in war, but liberal democracies have some weaknesses compared to one dictator who is able to avoid getting couped and keep focus while the leadership of opposing democracies is churned and changed by multiple election cycles. Especially when a lot of said democracies really want to get back to doing business with said dictator. Nice piece of fish posted:Is the western industrial complex genuinely unwilling or unable to provide Ukraine with sufficient military means to make warfare to painful for the russians? The 'cynical' point of view at the start was that NATO was going to dripfeed juuuust enough kit to keep the fight going for as long as possible to bleed russia as much as possible, even if it means an eventual pyrrhic victory for russia. I think we're undercounting that being able to sustain human meat walls supported by affordable drones might actually eventually be a hard counter to undersupported western kit. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 19:26
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Ronwayne posted:10-1 russian dead per ukr dead still favors russia, and probably even higher. Relentlessly keeping up assaults means they stop ukranian momentum, and the longer they prolong the slaughter, the longer they give TLIMP and other right wing shitheads time to get elected and torpedo all support. We rightfully point out the weaknesses of dictatorships in engaging in war, but liberal democracies have some weaknesses compared to one dictator who is able to avoid getting couped and keep focus while the leadership of opposing democracies is churned and changed by multiple election cycles. Especially when a lot of said democracies really want to get back to doing business with said dictator. While Russia does have a larger pool to draw from, they do not have the ability to sustain 10-1 losses over the long term, especially when thousands of lives are wasted trying to advance a few meters with the goal of capturing a literal pile of slag.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:39
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[quote="Eric Cantonese" post="535912587" I've found that you really cannot underestimate the number of people all over the world who are happy to look the other way in the face of an injustice and pretend everything's okay. [/quote] Or who justify whatever they're seeing to avoid having to feel bad about it. Victim blaming is the most powerful force in the universe
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Nov 13, 2023 19:40
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The_Franz posted:While Russia does have a larger pool to draw from, they do not have the ability to sustain 10-1 losses over the long term, especially when thousands of lives are wasted trying to advance a few meters with the goal of capturing a literal pile of slag. I dunno, I worry that they might. One of the things that's actually been developed and improved upon by russia is its internal conscription system. Even if the ukranian soldiers aren't being killed they are being traumatized just by having to endure relentless assault and a morale collapse of either the ukr military and/or civilians due to the trauma the war is causing might occur before the russian government runs out of bodies to throw on trains. Putin is/already turned this conflict into who can endure human misery at a widespread societal level the longest, and in that respect, russia has a huge advantage.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:56
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Ronwayne posted:I dunno, I worry that they might. One of the things that's actually been developed and improved upon by russia is its internal conscription system. Even if the ukranian soldiers aren't being killed they are being traumatized just by having to endure relentless assault and a morale collapse of either the ukr military and/or civilians due to the trauma the war is causing might occur before the russian government runs out of bodies to throw on trains. They are already running out of effective bodies and the human waves haven't paid off.
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Nov 13, 2023 19:58
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Reporting from Ukraine said that they amassed 40k troops in Donetsk for the attack and with the current rate they can keep it up for three more months.
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Nov 13, 2023 20:00
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Russia can likely sustain 10:1 losses for longer than you think. But having your vehicles getting dunked on the rate that has been happening is a problem though. All of their stuff fancy stuff in tanks for example is imported. They need to learn to build that internally and coupled with a brain drain could be problematic.
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Nov 13, 2023 20:01
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CommieGIR posted:They are already running out of effective bodies and the human waves haven't paid off. trust me, i really really hope I'm wrong and there's some kind of *crack ping* in the russian war effort very soon. Tai posted:Russia can likely sustain 10:1 losses for longer than you think. But having your vehicles getting dunked on the rate that has been happening is a problem though. All of their stuff fancy stuff in tanks for example is imported. They need to learn to build that internally and coupled with a brain drain could be problematic. I think they're starting to simply adapt to the fact they will not be able to replace it and have to use what they can replace: i.e. bodies+swarms of drones. Fought with sticks and stones on the offensive. No matter how many russians its killed, a piece of western kit that breaks due to lack of replacement parts that have stopped coming is as killed as if it were blown up by a high tech missile. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 20:02
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Thing is the decisions aren't being made with any sincere attempt to pick what's best even for an imperial expansionist Russian state. The oligarch class doesn't need a population that can sustain a tax base or operate public services except as a sort of executive toy. They don't need a national economy because they have armed guards, cobalt mines, and can buy their lifestyles from the UAE.
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Nov 13, 2023 20:20
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i don't really feel like the numbers i posted a few months back in terms of manpower capacity for russia have changed that much. they're fine for now still but if they start getting to 600-700k liquidations (dead + permanently injured), it's gonna start showing because that will be 1 in every 20 men of fighting age dead. knocking out 5% of a population has measurable effects on the top level, and "fighting age" in this case was basically 21-38, so the measurable effects will be pretty obvious. in any population, if you're doing it right (and Russia has been pretty diligent about doing this particular horrible thing right), you can disappear 3-4% of the group and mostly take away people that society won't miss much that much. convicts, lower-class people on the edge of being homeless, actual drifters, failsons, and other people that society has failed in various ways. if anyone at all notices they're gone, you give them the fish brick and it'll mostly shut them up. much more than that and you start really moving the needle on labor forces and the services those workers would otherwise staff. not at all to the "omg, critical labor shortage" stage, but that's when labor-hungry industries start having difficulty finding workers, truly productive men with otherwise well cared for families start vanishing, and businesses start saying "we're not doing x any more due to lack of staff". some restaurants might start closing a day or two a week as a result. that's still a tipping point because that's when the war effort starts hitting the average muskovite in an undeniable, if very minor, way. right now there's still a lot of internal messaging of russia strong, ukraine doomed to defeat, we ride to victory. individuals may (and probably do) doubt that, but there's no material impact to the contrary. if your favorite tea shop starts closing on tuesdays because half of the shift got drafted, that's material impact to the contrary. i don't know where they're at currently but when we spoke about it last, napkin math estimated like 150-200k to go before they started broaching this barrier, with the asterisk that we don't have any idea how many fighting-age russians up and fled the country when the drafts started. in that vein i can believe 40k manpower per month for 3 months before it starts becoming unsustainable. it may be 4-5, honestly. i'd have to go back and check my other posts from when i wasn't just slapping off some musings over lunch, though.
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Nov 13, 2023 20:21
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Coolguye posted:i don't really feel like the numbers i posted a few months back in terms of manpower capacity for russia have changed that much. they're fine for now still but if they start getting to 600-700k liquidations (dead + permanently injured), it's gonna start showing because that will be 1 in every 20 men of fighting age dead. knocking out 5% of a population has measurable effects on the top level, and "fighting age" in this case was basically 21-38, so the measurable effects will be pretty obvious. in any population, if you're doing it right (and Russia has been pretty diligent about doing this particular horrible thing right), you can disappear 3-4% of the group and mostly take away people that society won't miss much that much. convicts, lower-class people on the edge of being homeless, actual drifters, failsons, and other people that society has failed in various ways. if anyone at all notices they're gone, you give them the fish brick and it'll mostly shut them up. How much can you mitigate by expanding "fighting age" and grabbing older men? Not just a few afganistan war vets here but a concerted effort at throwing 40+ year old men at the front? Especially those with no family or other connections that make them 'worth something' from a spreadsheet perspective. Or I guess the extra spicy option of just starting to mass conscript women undesirables for offensive front line combat troops, which I don't think any nation has done so far?
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Nov 13, 2023 20:32
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When/if Putin starts yoinking 20's men off the street in Moscow/St Peter is going to be wild to see what happens then.
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Nov 13, 2023 20:44
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