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Neurolimal posted:I think Netanyahu's survival specifically is an outlier, in that he marketed himself specifically on something like October 7th never happening. If say, Hassan Rouhani had ran on "America will never be able to fire a missile at our generals!" then I'd imagine responses would be different, along with if Bush had said "Under my watch, no irregular group will ever get into America and terrorize us!". Constantly bombing Gaza into submission was supposed to keep it a non-factor while Israel gobbled up the West Bank. Why would you compare it to Gallup when you can just compare it to previous YouGov polls?  https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/47710-americans-are-growing-less-sympathetic-to-israel-as-war-fears-grow E: Didn't notice you edited the post. But if you look at the data, support levels barely changed compared to pre-Oct 7. The bump is only there because some people who normally don't care thought that they could form an opinion now that the conflict is in the news again. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 00:44
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Paladinus posted:E: Didn't notice you edited the post. Yeah I jumped the gun, because I had the Gallup poll in close memory and the potential change excited me  It's interesting that Both/Palestine in the Yougov polling didn't change for the worse off Oct 7; perhaps the constant refrain of "Hamas is not Palestine" was effective in terms of offloading blame there. It's also a very small but welcome sight to see that from 10/24 to 11/9 support for Israel has dropped 4%, Both 1%, and Palestinians up 2%. I don't have any faith in electoralism so changes like this are whatever, but it gives me hope that people are seeing what Israel's pitching in their propaganda, and what they're doing in Gaza, and making the correct call. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 00:47
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Note that the YouGov poll is not talking about Palestine or Palestinians. It's talking about Hamas.
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Nov 14, 2023 02:02
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Kokoro Wish posted:Note that the YouGov poll is not talking about Palestine or Palestinians. It's talking about Hamas. Uhm, no? It's very explicitly about sympathy towards the Israelis, the Palestinians, or both.
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Nov 14, 2023 02:47
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The Sean posted:And apologist rhetoric will be "did they die from Israeli starvation/dehydration or with Israeli starvation/dehydration." The apologist rhetoric will be "drat that Hamas for stealing all their supplies and preventing them from evacuating". Remember, the entire Israeli narrative is that they'd really love to avoid killing civilians as much as possible, but that Hamas are intentionally dragging civilians into the conflict for their own military advantage. And Westerners are ready to believe it, because they're quite used to their own governments doing basically the same poo poo and making basically the same excuses. The level of severe hunger in Afghanistan more than doubled after Westerners froze Afghan government assets and halted pretty much all foreign funding in response to the Taliban's takeover. But if you ask the average American about the severe famine in Afghanistan, they'll have no idea what you're talking about, and if you press them on it they'll probably conclude it's the Taliban's fault somehow.
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Nov 14, 2023 04:15
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Huggybear posted:What political pressure does Israel have against the US as opposed to vice versa? I've always understood Israel as more parasitic than symbiotic with respect to the US, as a primary source of aid, weapons and essentially a placeholder and de facto proxy military wing for action against Iran, etc. I'm not an expert by any means so curious to learn more. The perception that the relationship is parasitic is actually useful for the US, here, because part of the benefit the U.S. gets from Israel is having cover for stuff they benefit from anyways. Israel already has a reputation that isn't harmed more by doing the kind of things the U.S. would take a hit from. Biden banned the use of the Pegasus spy software, to his credit, different parts of the government still try to use it and the existence of such software helps U.S. backed regimes stay in power by being able to physically locate their critics. Israel provides a constant market for ammunition from American companies, because the occupation requires regular use of ammunition, as Israel "mows the lawn" regularly. They're able to test their own weapons, and U.S. weapons, on a regular basis - in a way that not only develops the technology but increases their profit by allowing them to advertise those weapons as "battle-tested." Some of the funds that the U.S. sends for military aid are used with the expectation that the results of weapons research will be given to both countries ("Those companies should be able to “immediately turn it around and build stuff for us because this is a serious investment in laser and non-kinetic directed energy weapons,” Montgomery told Defense News in a recent interview.") Israel is also able to give more direct aid to countries the U.S. wants to support, but can't for a variety of reasons. For instance, when the U.S. banned military aid to Guatemala, Israel was able to publically be the face of military aid.
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Nov 14, 2023 12:54
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gallop w/a boner posted:Out of curiosity does anyone know how much spare capacity the Israeli Air Force has on top of the existing bombing? Like could they increase the Almost certainly approaching 0% spare capacity, if not below it, due to maintenance concerns. You can't keep jets flying constantly.
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Nov 14, 2023 13:01
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Best Friends posted:I think this is them dropping the bombs they feel comfortable dropping at a sortie rate they can sustain while keeping enough of a reserve to go all in on Hezbollah if they need to. Similarly by land I think they’re doing exactly as much as they can while keeping a reserve ready for any developments in the strategic picture. So yeah I think they are doing as much as they can within the greater strategic constraints of the war possibly expanding and the war possibly going on a long time. The idea of invincible omnipotent Israel never made sense and it makes even less sense post Oct 7. My sense is that Israel has also loosened the "rules of engagement" a lot. The assumptions that Israel would go door-to-door and suffer high casualties might have been wrong because they're not operating under those rules. What they appear to do is send in tanks, bulldozers, drones and aircraft -- and artillery -- to destroy everything and the infantry are the last thing you'll see if you're still alive after all of this. Hamas soldiers dug into a building will face bulldozers smashing the building into collapsing onto them. Secondly, the Israeli press has been touting a 2019 shift in how they make decisions and send information with new technologies. The U.S. military calls it the "kill chain" but they basically bring down mass amounts of artillery and air support quickly to infantry who get into trouble. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJHjcukNbpw
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Nov 14, 2023 14:09
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RoboBoogie posted:https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4304505-fetterman-waves-israeli-flag-protesters-demanding-cease-fire/ The briefest of searches will return so many results from various pro-Zionist articles and interviews stating that they think Oz is the more pro-Israel of the two. One of them even tempers it with sentiments that it sure would be nice if he also didn't endorse Republican candidates who hang out on Gab and make anti-semitic jabs, but he is so much better for Zionism that it's OK to vote for him anyway. He publicly thought moving the capitol to Jerusalem was great, vehemently opposed an Iran deal, and stated that he supported "maximal autonomy" for Israel to do what it wanted to Palestinians within its borders, in which he includes both Gaza and the West Bank. So, uh, why should you have voted for Oz again?
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Nov 14, 2023 14:36
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VideoGameVet posted:This is a surprise. My own theory on this, is that we shouldn't overcomplicate it. The young voters are by far the most left-leaning age cohort, so when they are asked a question "do you approve of Biden's handling on..." many of them stop listening at that point and are patiently waiting to say yes. That, and we also need to remember that the angry pro-Palestinian protests are still representing a very small minority of people who are that well-informed and angry about the conflict. Most people (especially young voters) still likely don't know a lot of the details and don't really care to learn more, either falling back on their pro-Israel or pro-myparty biases. The group who say they don't approve also include a lot of MAGA Republicans who might be mad that we aren't bombing Gaza. Rigel fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 14:41
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:My sense is that Israel has also loosened the "rules of engagement" a lot. The assumptions that Israel would go door-to-door and suffer high casualties might have been wrong because they're not operating under those rules. What they appear to do is send in tanks, bulldozers, drones and aircraft -- and artillery -- to destroy everything and the infantry are the last thing you'll see if you're still alive after all of this. Hamas soldiers dug into a building will face bulldozers smashing the building into collapsing onto them. Secondly, the Israeli press has been touting a 2019 shift in how they make decisions and send information with new technologies. The U.S. military calls it the "kill chain" but they basically bring down mass amounts of artillery and air support quickly to infantry who get into trouble. I expect Israel will eventually withdraw from northern Gaza but only after they consider it has been rendered useless to Hamas for the time being (i.e. all significant structures destroyed). The residents are going to return to a wasteland.
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Nov 14, 2023 14:59
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VideoGameVet posted:This is a surprise. The thing is, Biden's approach to the war so far has essentially been "do nothing," and the poll does nothing to distinguish whether folks are dissatisfied with that because they want him to do more to stop Israel, or do more to attack Hamas. Something tells me that all those disapproving Republicans aren't disapproving because of their sympathies for Palestine.
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Nov 14, 2023 15:10
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CuddleCryptid posted:What else are you supposed to do about it? We're standing in a nation that has become largely decoupled from its populace. My state senators are at least open to the 2 state solution but my rep was installed by AIPAC. We're at the lowest point for support for Israel in what is probably several decades and its still illegal to boycott them in several states. The best you can functionally do is just do your best to try and change public perception and hope that it crosses the 51% line so that the sociopaths at the top click the lever over. "Several"? Try three-quarters of them. 
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Nov 14, 2023 15:32
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Fuschia tude posted:"Several"? Try three-quarters of them. How does one go about enforcing a law against boycotting (e.g not doing) something?
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Nov 14, 2023 15:54
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Rigel posted:My own theory on this, is that we shouldn't overcomplicate it. The young voters are by far the most left-leaning age cohort, so when they are asked a question "do you approve of Biden's handling on..." many of them stop listening at that point and are patiently waiting to say yes. YouGov's data suggests it's mostly the latter. While pro-Israel people are more likely to approve of Biden's handling of the war, there's a strong partisan effect where pro-Israel Republicans are a lot less likely to approve of Biden than pro-Israel Democrats. However, that partisan effect drops off sharply among younger groups, to the point where Biden wins majority support among young pro-Israel Republicans. And since there's a lot more pro-Israel people than pro-Palestine people, even among the youngest age groups, he gets the most support from young people because he does better with pro-Israel young people than with pro-Israel old people. Tedsville posted:How does one go about enforcing a law against boycotting (e.g not doing) something? Generally it's a ban on government entities doing business with companies that boycott Israel.
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Nov 14, 2023 15:57
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Tedsville posted:How does one go about enforcing a law against boycotting (e.g not doing) something? It's not so much about the states actually enforcing criminal penalties for BDS stuff, more like giving cover to employers who fire you for doing so
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Nov 14, 2023 15:58
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Tedsville posted:How does one go about enforcing a law against boycotting (e.g not doing) something? It depends on the state, but generally it means that states entities can't associate with people who loudly boycott Israel. For example, here it is written as "michigan law" posted:“may not enter into a contract with a person to acquire or dispose of supplies, services, or information technology unless the contract includes a representation that the person is not currently engaged in, and an agreement that the person will not engage in, the boycott of a person based in or doing business with a strategic partner.” Which basically means that the State can't work with people who are pushing against nations that the Nation views as strategic allies. It was written in response to Israel but would apply to a lot of nations and some corporations. Meanwhile in Texas it's straight up texas atty gen posted:Texas law prohibits state agencies and political subdivisions1 (“Governmental Entities”) from contracting with businesses that boycott energy companies, discriminate against firearm entities or associations, or boycott Israel. But what "associating with the state" means is questionable. If you have a Starbucks in a government building does that mean that Starbucks is responsible for rooting out anti-Israeli sentiment? Sane people say no, but sane people don't become CEO.
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Nov 14, 2023 16:06
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Got it, cheers guys.
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Nov 14, 2023 16:13
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Would that even hold up in court if used against a company or person?
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Nov 14, 2023 17:23
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Dr. VooDoo posted:Would that even hold up in court if used against a company or person? Depends on what court I guess. You could argue that Texas' law is too specific as to be a free speech violation but if the law is just "states can't work with people who are against groups that the State is supposed to be allied with" then that seems like a legal slam dunk. Past that it's down to corporate law if the ideological cleansing to get government contracts is legal but since it directly impacts the business I don't see any route for it not working.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:27
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SuperTeeJay posted:I expect Israel will eventually withdraw from northern Gaza but only after they consider it has been rendered useless to Hamas for the time being (i.e. all significant structures destroyed). The residents are going to return to a wasteland. https://twitter.com/Yonatan_Touval/status/1723407416149053788 From a few days ago, but yeah pretty much - if they're even allowed to return at all.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:56
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There's no way they'll be allowed to return, officials have said multiple times "the territory of gaza will decrease" Israel will probably put a new fence south of gaza city and start bulldozing the rubble for new settlements.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:01
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Without Palestinians able to go else where, hundreds of thousands are going to slowly die in south Gaza.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:12
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There’s a good cop / bad cop approach where the bad cop bombs apartments, hospitals and places of worship and cuts off food and water, while the good cop tries to get people to get out of the way of the bad cop with a helpful one way ticket. The approaches are complimentary. Both serve the objective of removing the Palestinians from Palestine.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:41
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Best Friends posted:There’s a good cop / bad cop approach where the bad cop bombs apartments, hospitals and places of worship and cuts off food and water, while the good cop tries to get people to get out of the way of the bad cop with a helpful one way ticket. The approaches are complimentary. Both serve the objective of removing the Palestinians from Palestine. Which cop is the one that shoots at people trying to leave?
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Nov 14, 2023 20:57
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ContinuityNewTimes posted:Which cop is the one that shoots at people trying to leave? trick question, that's both cops
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Nov 14, 2023 21:15
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RoboBoogie posted:I know - it loving pains me that everyone is like this. i voted for fetterman and he is jerking israel off like no ones business. He ran on this poo poo: https://jewishinsider.com/2022/04/john-fetterman-says-hell-lean-in-on-u-s-israel-relationship-as-senator/
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Nov 14, 2023 21:30
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seem like Israel still haven't moved into city center yet the battle is prob gonna take a while to conclude either way 
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Nov 14, 2023 21:58
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Typo posted:seem like Israel still haven't moved into city center yet They're moving faster than I thought, but then again unlike most other modern urban assaults, Gaza has been completely besieged for a month, was in a bad state for years beforehand, and is effectively next-door to the logistics of the invader. But still after all this, it will likely take months to clear the rest of the city. Which is only possible because at some point in the very near future Gaza city will become truly inhospitable if it isn't already. If the siege goes on as it is the last stages will be clearing empty buildings because everyone has either fled or starved.
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Nov 14, 2023 22:15
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Orthanc6 posted:They're moving faster than I thought, but then again unlike most other modern urban assaults, Gaza has been completely besieged for a month, was in a bad state for years beforehand, and is effectively next-door to the logistics of the invader. most modern urban battles involved sieges for much longer the US put Fallujah under seige for 6 months between the first and second assault for instance
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Nov 14, 2023 22:22
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Typo posted:most modern urban battles involved sieges for much longer "Since 2006" is longer than 6 months, in case you were having trouble with the math.
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Nov 14, 2023 22:24
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PT6A posted:"Since 2006" is longer than 6 months, in case you were having trouble with the math. quote:They're moving faster than I thought, but then again unlike most other modern urban assaults, Gaza has been completely besieged for a month, was in a bad state for years beforehand, and is effectively next-door to the logistics of the invader.
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Nov 14, 2023 22:32
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I think what PT6A is getting at is when I said " was in a bad state for years beforehand" I should have actually said "was partially besieged since 2006". There's a clear difference between Oct 7 to now, and 2006 to Oct 7 2023, but all those years had Gaza already relying almost entirely on outside assistance for basic necessities. So the full siege of Fallujah was longer, but the cumulative partial siege for years of Gaza had it at a much worst starting situation when its full siege began. But again, another key difference is Gaza is right in the middle of Israel's entire military complex. Whereas Fallujah is on a different continent from the US. The US is designed as an expeditionary force, but one can still imagine if they had to besiege and invade a town in Mexico it would still go a lot quicker than doing so in Iraq. And no US, don't get any more dumb ideas.
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Nov 14, 2023 22:42
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I suspected that after this is all over we'll find out there was a good reason why Israel swept the coastline first. I bet Hamas's defences are all orientated towards the border wall on the assumption that they'd get to fight a phased withdrawal into the city from that direction.
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Nov 14, 2023 22:42
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Alchenar posted:I suspected that after this is all over we'll find out there was a good reason why Israel swept the coastline first. I bet Hamas's defences are all orientated towards the border wall on the assumption that they'd get to fight a phased withdrawal into the city from that direction. Interesting. Do you have an article you can point me to on this? While I'm at it, I saw the claim the other day that 80% of Hamas members were orphaned by IDF operations or other Israeli actions. That those who've lost family / parents would be most likely to radicalize is clear, but are there actual, halfway reliable statistics along these lines that are available anywhere?
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Nov 14, 2023 22:55
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Habibi posted:Interesting. Do you have an article you can point me to on this? No he's just bullshitting. They took the coast so they could stop Palestinians from getting fish. Also you can't get shot from behind when there's nothing but beach. The 80% comes directly from Hamas publications, which is about as good an official number as you're ever going to get. I certainly wouldn't put it below 70%. Speleothing fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 23:15
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Alchenar posted:I bet Hamas's defences are all orientated towards the border wall on the assumption that they'd get to fight a phased withdrawal into the city from that direction. It's possible, but it seems rather obvious to me that you would use the longer stretch of the wall as an obstacle that you don't need to push from because by its nature it is an anvil. Covered in machineguns and sniper towers it defends itself (recent history notwithstanding), and if the Palestinians are forced towards it they are denied anything to put their backs to. So why wouldn't you concentrate your forces to encircle them and try to drive them up against those guns? Especially if you can see that the beach-front lends itself to an armoured push from the north. And any competent city fighting guerilla should probably be planning a defence that focusses on all the junctions and arteries, not just one direction.
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Nov 14, 2023 23:25
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Orthanc6 posted:They're moving faster than I thought, but then again unlike most other modern urban assaults, Gaza has been completely besieged for a month, was in a bad state for years beforehand, and is effectively next-door to the logistics of the invader. They're taking strategic points currently, it seems like. They're definitely going for the hospitals, because of course that's where the Dr Evil lair of Hamas is located. But IDF also claims to have taken the Gaza parliament and police HQ. Attacking the hospitals has already gave them the "benefit" of the health ministry not being able to report casualties. https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-proclaims-it-has-captured-hamas-parliament-government-seat-and-police-hq/ They won't be clearing empty buildings. They'll try to capture the strategic ones. Anywhere not important (to them) with resistance in it will be bombed to rubble before any infantry even dismount. In my opinion, I'm not sure they'll care to stick around to clear apartments blocks they haven't destroyed if there's no active resistance coming from them. They'll just leave after achieving whatever goals they claim, then raid back in when they feel like it. ummel fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 23:47
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Chillmatic posted:I'm glad Fetterman gets it. Please tell me what fetterman get? That its okay to butcher people for their land?
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Nov 15, 2023 00:01
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Alchenar posted:I suspected that after this is all over we'll find out there was a good reason why Israel swept the coastline first. I bet Hamas's defences are all orientated towards the border wall on the assumption that they'd get to fight a phased withdrawal into the city from that direction.  ummel posted:They won't be clearing empty buildings. They'll try to capture the strategic ones. Anywhere not important (to them) with resistance in it will be bombed to rubble before any infantry even dismount. In my opinion, I'm not sure they'll care to stick around to clear apartments blocks they haven't destroyed if there's no active resistance coming from them. They'll just leave after achieving whatever goals they claim, then raid back in when they feel like it. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Nov 15, 2023 |
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Nov 15, 2023 00:22
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