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Scags McDouglas posted:Hmmm where do I remember similar, impotent posturing. Hmmmm. HMMMM. I know this is old, but I see Biden winning a footrace and being basically fine after and Trump winning a fistfight right before stroking out or having a heart attack.
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Nov 15, 2023 03:42
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James Garfield posted:Any internal polls probably look like the public polls. I think the right conspiracy for those articles is that the outlets are doing it to hedge against bias accusations when they report on the Trump trials. Fair enough. It's just been so laughable the last couple weeks. "Biden and the democrats are in trouble because vague reasons! Ignore the massive democratic blowout in every election since Roe vs Wade was thrown out!" Like the centrists and left aren't wild about Biden but it's also clear as can be it's either a case of mostly bland but palatable grandpa vs. Turbo Gonorrhea for most voters.
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Nov 15, 2023 03:46
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Detailed investigative reporting in the Washington Post using what's now a well-characterized story format- an individual tragedy is used to humanize a nation-scale policy issue, in this case the lack of consistent regulation of home births and midwives. A home birth midwife faces scrutiny after a baby dies. It’s not the first time. Editor’s note: This story includes a video and photos of a deceased baby, which are included with the parents’ permission. The images may disturb some people. quote:[...] The Cheyney quote is particularly remarkable because (as identified in the Post's new annotation system) she did deflective anti-regulatory research on behalf of a midwives industry group. At the same time, this also reflects that some of this is the different midwife professional groups engaging in a turf war. quote:Thirty-six states and D.C. have laws allowing certified professional midwives to seek licensure, but the rules governing their practice vary widely. Some states ban midwives from attending riskier breech or twin births, but others, including Texas, have no such restrictions. Midwives in Delaware and Louisiana, for example, must check the fetal heart rate at certain times during labor, while in other states, including Maryland, there is no such requirement. State laws even differ on what medications midwives can administer. This is just the start of a really extensive article. Spoiler alert for the end: Carr is still practicing. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 03:57 on Nov 15, 2023 |
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Nov 15, 2023 03:54
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haveblue posted:Does it still only take one to call a removal vote? Yep, the one-vote threshold is still in place. Johnson wasn't in any hurry to change it; I imagine he thought the right was going to cut him a little slack after sating themselves on McCarthy's blood. Alkydere posted:I wonder if the giant pile of "Biden is having troubles because (x)" articles I've seen lately are because the GOP/their handlers are looking at some truly dire internal polling and they're doing something, anything to manufacture consent. Unlikely. It's far more likely to be the media just enjoying their horserace coverage as usual. The polls showing Trump up are real, and it's only natural that the media will cover those more than the polls showing Biden up, because Trump winning would get their audience more worked up.
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Nov 15, 2023 03:55
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smug n stuff posted:Some DNC social media person created a montage of the GOP's chaotic day: It's kinda funny how the republican party basically keeps cutting campaign ads for the Biden team. Who just adds a sound track on it.
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Nov 15, 2023 04:34
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Nelson Mandingo posted:It's kinda funny how the republican party basically keeps cutting campaign ads for the Biden team. Who just adds a sound track on it.
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Nov 15, 2023 04:41
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InsertPotPun posted:i wonder how they see these ads in chudland? They probably love and approve of all of it. Republican house members are basically voted into office to grandstand and shout their voters’ favorite talking points.
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Nov 15, 2023 04:44
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InsertPotPun posted:biden's social media team is on point. i wonder how they see these ads in chudland? Mullin made that union thug shake in his boots Dude called that guy a Smurf  Some wimp got elbowed by McCarthy? Let the RINOs fight
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Nov 15, 2023 05:29
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Alkydere posted:Fair enough. It's just been so laughable the last couple weeks. "Biden and the democrats are in trouble because vague reasons! Ignore the massive democratic blowout in every election since Roe vs Wade was thrown out!" The 2022 midterms happened after the Dobbs decision. While democrats did better than expected for the party holding the White House, it seems odd to call it a massive blowout in their favor when they lost the House of Representatives, including losing the popular vote for the House (which they likely still would have lost even if they'd contested every seat).
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Nov 15, 2023 06:37
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Sir Kodiak posted:The 2022 midterms happened after the Dobbs decision. While democrats did better than expected for the party holding the White House, it seems odd to call it a massive blowout in their favor when they lost the House of Representatives, including losing the popular vote for the House (which they likely still would have lost even if they'd contested every seat). It probably would have been seen as less of a victory without so much confident chortling in the previous two years that the 2022 red wave was going to be bigger (and more richly deserved!) than those of 2010 and 1994, and hammering of what massive advantages Republicans have in midterms in general and opposition Republicans in particular and y'all better just pack it in. Largely from people who had made similar confident predictions in 2018 and 2020 when Dobbs wasn't a factor, but were still being taken as connected people with sharp political instincts somehow rather than just tossing it all on red every spin. The Dems in 2016 picked up seats in both houses of Congress and walked away with the popular vote but none of those three were easy to sell as victories since they were naturally compared to expectations of a thousand years of liberal darkness.
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Nov 15, 2023 07:11
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InsertPotPun posted:biden's social media team is on point. i wonder how they see these ads in chudland? They don't. It's two perfectly non-intersecting bubbles.
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Nov 15, 2023 09:49
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Sir Kodiak posted:The 2022 midterms happened after the Dobbs decision. While democrats did better than expected for the party holding the White House, it seems odd to call it a massive blowout in their favor when they lost the House of Representatives, including losing the popular vote for the House (which they likely still would have lost even if they'd contested every seat). Think all the predictions around then were like +25 reps in the house for r's and they would take the senate. Dems keeping the senate and R's ending up +7 or whatever was a huge shock. You can get semantic about use of the word blowout if you really want to but all the reporting and general forum feelings at the time were that the midterms were a comedically disastrous showing for the gop regardless of them still taking the house. And given all the gop in disarray stuff that has gone down thanks to the freedom caucus, I find it hard to argue otherwise.
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Nov 15, 2023 10:18
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I get it if you feel "blowout" is too strong a term but in the lead up to 2022 the GOP and their outriders were touting the coming red wave - red tsunami, even - to high heaven, and then they seriously underperformed on basically every level. That they've done the same on every occasion post-16 is finally starting to scare some of them, especially because Dobbs has totally upended any hope of at least benefiting from the usual political cycle and exchange of one party for the other. Unfortunately for them (but fortunately for Biden, dems, and the online peanut gallery like us who love to hoot and holler at political fuckups) they've allowed the craziest people on the far right to have enough influence and power that course correction is nigh impossible and that's not going to change until Trump is dead or in prison.
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Nov 15, 2023 11:18
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I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling.
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Nov 15, 2023 13:39
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. Dude, who do you think is building the new houses
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Nov 15, 2023 13:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Dude, who do you think is building the new houses Who are the racists
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Nov 15, 2023 13:48
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. So you agree there isn't enough housing for the people here.
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Nov 15, 2023 13:52
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Mooseontheloose posted:So you agree there isn't enough housing for the people here. No poo poo? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 15, 2023 13:58
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. So what do you have to add to the conversation? Or are you just going to drop a turd and ask why we're not talking about you and your giant brain?
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Nov 15, 2023 14:15
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. I needed a credit score of 700 to rent my lovely apartment that costs $1200 a month.
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Nov 15, 2023 14:23
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Failboattootoot posted:Think all the predictions around then were like +25 reps in the house for r's and they would take the senate. Dems keeping the senate and R's ending up +7 or whatever was a huge shock. You can get semantic about use of the word blowout if you really want to but all the reporting and general forum feelings at the time were that the midterms were a comedically disastrous showing for the gop regardless of them still taking the house. And given all the gop in disarray stuff that has gone down thanks to the freedom caucus, I find it hard to argue otherwise. Ms Adequate posted:I get it if you feel "blowout" is too strong a term but in the lead up to 2022 the GOP and their outriders were touting the coming red wave - red tsunami, even - to high heaven, and then they seriously underperformed on basically every level. That they've done the same on every occasion post-16 is finally starting to scare some of them, especially because Dobbs has totally upended any hope of at least benefiting from the usual political cycle and exchange of one party for the other. Unfortunately for them (but fortunately for Biden, dems, and the online peanut gallery like us who love to hoot and holler at political fuckups) they've allowed the craziest people on the far right to have enough influence and power that course correction is nigh impossible and that's not going to change until Trump is dead or in prison. these are my views. Its not perfect and i dont think we keep the senate because of the Map and etc next year but the GOP is not in a good place right now and while biden and the dems have alot of areas they need to fix or repair before 2024. Id rather be them then the GOP right now. the dems have room to fix issues and such. the GOP can't because of the base and trump mixed with doubling down on every unpopular issue.
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Nov 15, 2023 14:23
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. Do you have evidence that they contribute significantly to demand? Typically illegal immigrants are in low desirability areas where housing is available due to urban concentration, or occupying black or non market housing. Worker site housing might not 100% check your ID, and a flophouse in a property that would be condemned if HUD looked at it and that would be rejected by unburdened consumers doesn't affect the market. Legal immigrants simply have the right to participate fully. Their economic need for housing in a location is no different than anyone else's. Also not substantial numbers.
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Nov 15, 2023 14:26
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Failboattootoot posted:Think all the predictions around then were like +25 reps in the house for r's and they would take the senate. Dems keeping the senate and R's ending up +7 or whatever was a huge shock. You can get semantic about use of the word blowout if you really want to but all the reporting and general forum feelings at the time were that the midterms were a comedically disastrous showing for the gop regardless of them still taking the house. And given all the gop in disarray stuff that has gone down thanks to the freedom caucus, I find it hard to argue otherwise. That doesn't mean that the GOP is doing badly, it means that pollsters are doing badly. The reason there was all that talk about the red tsunami was because polls were looking real good for the GOP. Sure, they didn't perform nearly as well as the pollsters were predicting, but the polls being wrong is the pollsters' fault rather than the politicians' fault. Putting aside media hype cycles and focusing on the actual electoral results, the Dems aren't doing all that impressive in national-level elections. They lost the House in 2022, and the extremely slim Senate majority they've had since 2020 is far tinier than the one they had for most of Obama's administration. We're seeing lots of encouraging signs, with various overreaches by state GOPs getting firmly smacked down by voters, but there isn't really much of a sign that we should be predicting the imminent collapse of the GOP just yet.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:23
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. The only crisis in immigration is that we so prevent and obstruct people from freely immigrating. Migrants are not to blame for the housing disaster, profit motives and construction shortages are to blame. Why do you think preventing immigration should be our focus when such changes would not affect housing prices?
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Nov 15, 2023 15:24
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Main Paineframe posted:That doesn't mean that the GOP is doing badly, it means that pollsters are doing badly. The reason there was all that talk about the red tsunami was because polls were looking real good for the GOP. Sure, they didn't perform nearly as well as the pollsters were predicting, but the polls being wrong is the pollsters' fault rather than the politicians' fault. Well that's silly, Joe Biden demolished Trump with his 150,000 vote margin across 3 states.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:29
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atriptothebeach posted:The only crisis in immigration is that we so prevent and obstruct people from freely immigrating. It's almost sad how "real angry about immigration, for some reason" is one of those leading indicators for "consumes too much right wing media", like tardive dyskenesia for people who've taken too many antipsychotics. Immigration is a solution not a problem.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:36
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Yiggy posted:Kinda funny. Unless something changed since I left Texas their legislators aren’t full time employees as-it-were. The session is short, and the income is meager. You have independent wealth or another job as far as I understood it. It’s basically a “gently caress this, I’m mostly out, but I’ll sort of keep one toe in the politics pool” incase the fever breaks in a few years. there are only 10 state legislatures which are full time: California, New York, Hawaii, Alaska, Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Michigan All other 40 states making state laws is a side hustle like doordashing
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Nov 15, 2023 15:38
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The US has the slowest population growth it's ever had, so I don't think too many new people (be they through birth or immigration)is the root of housing or pretty much any problem
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Nov 15, 2023 15:42
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Immigration is a solution not a problem. I don't think this is always true. It's a moral obligation to let people come into this country - give me your tired your poor etc - but that doesn't mean it doesn't create problems that have to be solved, or that these people are necessarily the solution to some problem that was already here. It's just an increase in the number of people with abilities and needs, could be good could be bad. For example in my city we have a lot of people seeking refuge/asylum/a new life, they were sent here on buses in that bullshit Texas/Florida operation. Like everyone they have a lot of needs (shelter, schooling, nutrition, medicine, etc). They have very little money, property, or employability (because they lack work permits) so they can't acquire these things without state intervention. That's a problem that has to be solved, even though popular solutions like "kick them out of the city" or "let them suffer without shelter" are obviously unethical. The solution is "pay for what they need until they can pay for it themselves," which then creates a budgetary problem etc. Basically immigrants aren't magic, immigration can create tons of problems while solving few, we gotta deal with it either way because that's just how ethics work. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Nov 15, 2023 |
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Nov 15, 2023 15:44
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Sir Kodiak posted:The 2022 midterms happened after the Dobbs decision. While democrats did better than expected for the party holding the White House, it seems odd to call it a massive blowout in their favor when they lost the House of Representatives, including losing the popular vote for the House (which they likely still would have lost even if they'd contested every seat). It was a blowout. Democrats had the history of the "party in power losing seats in the midterm" going against them, and when you couple it with generational inflation, constant talk of recession, stock market making new lows in October, and fear mongering about crime (which worked in NY), Democrats should have been absolutely trounced. Instead, they lost the House by a couple of seats, gained legislatures and governorships and got +1 in the Senate. Actually, one way we know the Republicans lost are the various meltdowns Charlie Kirk and others were having on election night. small butter fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Nov 15, 2023 |
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Nov 15, 2023 15:45
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There isn't much to be done about the grumpy old Fox watching crowd. They are voting Republican until they die and are going to LOUDLY complain about everything while doing it. Polls and such can say what they want but the reality is that barring a massive demographic shift in the country, each party can pretty much anticipate most of the votes they get. Most people already know who they are willing to vote for, some just aren't sure if they are willing to go out and actually vote for them. What hurts the Democrats is voter enthusiasm more than anything, because the previously mentioned crazy old Republicans will ALWAYS vote straight ticket while we Democrats argue over if Biden deserves a vote because of Israel, Ukraine, the economy, housing, immigration, etc.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:46
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's almost sad how "real angry about immigration, for some reason" is one of those leading indicators for "consumes too much right wing media", like tardive dyskenesia for people who've taken too many antipsychotics. This might be inverting cause and effect, here.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:50
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's almost sad how "real angry about immigration, for some reason" is one of those leading indicators for "consumes too much right wing media", like tardive dyskenesia for people who've taken too many antipsychotics. It's an aside but I have affected friends so it seems worth explaining; tardive dyskinesia can emerge after a brief course of antipsychotics, it's not evidence of over medication or even necessarily a long course of treatment. In rare cases in predisposed patients, a single dose of antipsychotics can lead to a lasting movement disorder.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:56
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I don't think this is always true. It's a moral obligation to let people come into this country - give me your tired your poor etc - but that doesn't mean it doesn't create problems that have to be solved, or that these people are necessarily the solution to some problem that was already here. It's just an increase in the number of people with abilities and needs, could be good could be bad. Oh sure. But those same problems exist with, e.g., new babies, but everyone realizes that adding new babies to the economy is a net long term good, even if those babies require health care, schooling, and feeding in the short term, and even if some of those babies will eventually grow up and do things that get put in jail. Everybody recognizes that a new baby is an opportunity, not a danger. Unless the new babies are brown and/or foreign. America has a massive demographic crunch coming and the only way to keep it from happening is with immigration, especially as there are still a very large number of jobs that Americans simply will not do for themselves (agriculture, etc). Over the long term, net, for America, immigration is a solution not a problem. Right wing media just doesn't want people to think about that, because a bunch of racial hysteria helps the right wing more right now.
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Nov 15, 2023 15:56
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Retro42 posted:There isn't much to be done about the grumpy old Fox watching crowd. They are voting Republican until they die and are going to LOUDLY complain about everything while doing it. Polls and such can say what they want but the reality is that barring a massive demographic shift in the country, each party can pretty much anticipate most of the votes they get. agreed but i sorta think that stuff will fade alot more closer to the election. yeah some online folks will say they wont vote for various reasons(which sure whatever) but i think they are gonna be outweighed by the suburban liberals and moderates who want abortion back or don't want their kids stoned to death for being LGBTQ or etc. the GOP is only catering the loudest online/fox news hardline people and its not helping them at all. meanwhile the dems for better or worse have done some genuinly good progressive stuff but keep the messaging broad. which i think helps them.
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Nov 15, 2023 16:09
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I love this conversation about housing problems that refuses to acknowledge illegal immigration and legal immigration on the demand side of the equation. Really telling. It plays virtually no factor in this country considering what rent and mortgage rates are at now. Immigrants aren't making your apartment more expensive, Black Rock is. Among many other factors. Nonsense fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Nov 15, 2023 |
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Nov 15, 2023 16:10
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Dapper_Swindler posted:agreed but i sorta think that stuff will fade alot more closer to the election. yeah some online folks will say they wont vote for various reasons(which sure whatever) but i think they are gonna be outweighed by the suburban liberals and moderates who want abortion back or don't want their kids stoned to death for being LGBTQ or etc. the GOP is only catering the loudest online/fox news hardline people and its not helping them at all. meanwhile the dems for better or worse have done some genuinly good progressive stuff but keep the messaging broad. which i think helps them. Oh for sure. I'm firmly in the "polls this far out are inaccurate" crowd. I just think it's lost on alot of Democrats that they just aren't playing the same game as the Republicans right now. While we argue over specific issues and try to appeal to the voters with logic and empathy, the general Republican voter is over there thinking "sure Trump allegedly did crimes, but Biden is corrupt and must go." That voter WILL be at the polls and will be voting straight Republican on election day. There is no nuance there.
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Nov 15, 2023 16:22
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh sure. But those same problems exist with, e.g., new babies, but everyone realizes that adding new babies to the economy is a net long term good, even if those babies require health care, schooling, and feeding in the short term, and even if some of those babies will eventually grow up and do things that get put in jail. Everybody recognizes that a new baby is an opportunity, not a danger. Unless the new babies are brown and/or foreign. You might see more U.S. citizens doing those jobs if business couldn’t rely on keeping a permanent, underpaid, regulation-free underclass and had to provide basic standards. Of course one answer for that is to open up legal immigration especially from the south, and the other is throw them all in concentration camps. The latter seems more popular.
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Nov 15, 2023 16:28
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Retro42 posted:Oh for sure. I'm firmly in the "polls this far out are inaccurate" crowd. I just think it's lost on alot of Democrats that they just aren't playing the same game as the Republicans right now. While we argue over specific issues and try to appeal to the voters with logic and empathy, the general Republican voter is over there thinking "sure Trump allegedly did crimes, but Biden is corrupt and must go." That voter WILL be at the polls and will be voting straight Republican on election day. There is no nuance there. i mean sure, WE will be doing that, but i think alot of the online arguments and declarations and such are "overblown" in their impact the voting dems as a whole/ the various big protests will rightly get more policy direction swings and such. but my point is i think the dems have switched the suburbs from 'default vote GOP' to "default vote dem" along with alot of normies who dont really follow ANY of the political stuff but will see all the scary trump poo poo and etc when all of that becomes a focus again, not to mention a abortion. My point is i think alot of the dems and moderates will probably pull the lever dem when the times come more then you think.
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Nov 15, 2023 16:30
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Discendo Vox posted:Detailed investigative reporting in the Washington Post using what's now a well-characterized story format- an individual tragedy is used to humanize a nation-scale policy issue, in this case the lack of consistent regulation of home births and midwives. I read this yesterday and what stood out to me is that I've encountered one of the non-Carr midwives mentioned in the article. I met her during some routine care a few years ago. It seems that particular one acted as an observer in one of the stories. Nothing strange stood out about that certified nurse midwife and we've met quite a few CNMs over the years also. My wife's delivery was using a midwife in a hospital and was straight forward with no complications. We were quite happy with the midwife but like I said no issues during pregnancy or after delivery and in a hospital. Regardless the CNMs operate alongside OB/GYNs and a nursing team. The midwife Carr seems to be taking on complicated cases (twins, breech) and deliveries where there are I think obvious undiagnosed issues such as the woman who says she has thyroid issues. It may be she thinks it's her or the people are on their own but it seems like she is too hesitant to escalate to a hospital or as the article implies at one point lying about the condition of the baby.
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Nov 15, 2023 16:34
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