War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

seeing some initial reporting that the us secured all of jordan's 60 gepards (it was reported earlier this year that there was a big purchase, but no solid number) and that the deliveries to ukraine is now starting

this would just about double the number of gepards in ukranian hands, so hopefully a solid step in keeping long range suicide drones away from critical infrastructure ahead of winter

Libluini posted:

Also meanwhile Ukraine is supposedly moving more troops into Kherson region to attack supply lines between Crimea and the East.

There's also a claim that a car bomb deleted three Russian officers from this mortal coil in Melitopol, but I've decided that wasn't important enough for a link.

it's seemed a bit quite on the southern front since the gains around robotyne. perhaps it's been decided that it's not worth it to attack into the more built up defenses

GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 13, 2023

# ? Nov 13, 2023 18:32

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 14:31

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

The Tatarigami_UA account put out a new summary of the situation at Avdiivka yesterday.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1723790900394909793

It seems like the Russians are doing what they did at Bakhmut. They're grinding away and slowly progressing, but they are showing logistical vulnerabilities as they do so.

Here's a ThreadReader link if you don't want to visit the X.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1723790900394909793.html

# ? Nov 14, 2023 03:37

Akratic Method: Mar 9, 2013; It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

What ever happened to Bakhmut? I know the Ukrainians counter-struck shortly after being pushed out, and it seemed like they grabbed back some bits. Did that go anywhere, or does Russia still have the ruins?

# ? Nov 14, 2023 03:39

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Akratic Method posted:

What ever happened to Bakhmut? I know the Ukrainians counter-struck shortly after being pushed out, and it seemed like they grabbed back some bits. Did that go anywhere, or does Russia still have the ruins?

Russia still has the city. Both sides seem to be bleeding out there, with Russia ceding some territory, but otherwise holding Bakhmut's remains. Recent reports Russia has shifted to "active defense" though, so maybe they'll be able to push on.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-intensifies-assaults-near-bakhmut/

# ? Nov 14, 2023 03:46

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Akratic Method posted:

What ever happened to Bakhmut? I know the Ukrainians counter-struck shortly after being pushed out, and it seemed like they grabbed back some bits. Did that go anywhere, or does Russia still have the ruins?

The Russians have been pushed back some, to the outskirts of Bakhmut itself. Most notable successes have been southwest of the city in Andriivka and Klischiivka.

Here's one map of it:

Orange is Russian control, yellow is area Ukraine has retaken.
(Source = https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez

# ? Nov 14, 2023 03:51

d64: Jan 15, 2003

Saw a claim that much of the offensive at Avdiivka is driven by DPR forces. Interesting that they still have manpower left. Maybe the high losses they seem to be taking in that direction is indicative of force quality.

# ? Nov 14, 2023 08:49

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

well, that sure was short-lived

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1724316017055215623

Almost no Russian oil is sold below $60 cap, say western officials

you would think it would be harder to just casually acquire so many tankers as to make up the difference in foreign-flagged craft no longer servicing your ports in just under a year

# ? Nov 14, 2023 09:52

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

d64 posted:

Saw a claim that much of the offensive at Avdiivka is driven by DPR forces. Interesting that they still have manpower left. Maybe the high losses they seem to be taking in that direction is indicative of force quality.

It was reported that a large share of the initial push was carried out by the DPR 1st Corps, how involved they have been since then I have not read or heard anything. Their pre-2022 invasion numbers were between 40-50k, the BBC reproted in October that they have lost around 20k (KIA) since 2022.

# ? Nov 14, 2023 13:01

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Apparently one of those who got a pardon for going for serving in Wagner or Russian Army on Ukraine is one of those convicted for involvement in murder of Politkovskaya:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67414517

# ? Nov 14, 2023 16:54

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

OddObserver posted:

Apparently one of those who got a pardon for going for serving in Wagner or Russian Army on Ukraine is one of those convicted for involvement in murder of Politkovskaya:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67414517

I was trying to read up on that. What does a conviction like that even mean in the Russian system? Is it basically proof he was just the chosen fall guy or what?

# ? Nov 14, 2023 17:04

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I was trying to read up on that. What does a conviction like that even mean in the Russian system? Is it basically proof he was just the chosen fall guy or what?

Yes, he was the middleman, as were the guys that took the fall for Nemtsov's murder - both killings led to Kadyrov and his circle.

# ? Nov 14, 2023 22:35

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

Interesting summary of a Polish language book about the war. It�s filled with lots of behind the scenes anecdotes.

https://x.com/filippdm/status/1724171496552063182?s=46&t=eYnb6uC9Nqku2TRAz1AKtQ

quote:

1. 🇵🇱government was seriously concerned that Lukashenka will join the war, and was preparing a scenario in which anti-regime diversion groups would be sent to the 🇧🇾army rear to wreck havoc. In the end, Lukashenka was so afraid himself, that through various channels made inquires to Warsaw, if they`d let him pass the border and then to fly away from the closest airport. He knew if things went south for him, Russians would not let him lift into his own airspace.

2. Polish special forces were securing Ukrainian delegates that were attending negotiations in Belarus (March 2022). They were escorting them in helicopters that landed on Belarusian soil and took them out when they were done. Also, by a coincidence (they were training 🇺🇦specials), Polish commando forces were present at the facility in Brovary (Kiyv suburbs), when the war erupted. They stayed on longer, gathering intel. A British unit is also reported doing the same.

3. Despite Russian propaganda, while Poland never even thought about using the opportunity to reclaim Lviv (Lw�w), it remained a concern for Ukrainians. Warsaw told their partners - we will be with you till the end, as long as you keep on fighting. Together with the unconditional help that was immediately provided on many levels, it convinced Ukrainians about the sincerity of Polish intentions. As a side note: Dmytro Kuleba with his whole family (and dog) was received by his 🇵🇱counterpart - Zbigniew Rau at his private home, where they could wait out the critical time period. Similar proposals were made to 🇺🇦Danilov and Sybiha.

4. On the 25th of March brand new 🇵🇱Boeing 737-800 NG had an emergency landing while on the way to Jasionka (Rzesz�w) to a meeting with president Biden. President Duda and gen. Andrzejczak were on board. The cause of near-death experience (how passengers described it) was a faulty trimmer which malfunctioned forcing the pilots to fight with the steering handles. Luckily the plane landed safely and the delegation quickly changed their plane to another one, continuing the trip. Nevertheless, at the time possible sabotage or assassination attempt was one of the probable causes that were being investigated.

5. Americans were convinced that Kyiv will fall within 3 days and prepared to evacuate 40k people, presumably apart from own 🇺🇸citizens, also whole Ukrainian political elite and establishment. Jake Sullivan was the most skeptical about Ukraine's chances, and argued about that with Jakub Kumoch (presidential secretary) who was convinced UA will prevail. Later on, from the same reasons US remained reluctant to provide additional help in the form of heavy equipment. Washington agreed for providing tanks after Biden-Duda meeting, which Warsaw insisted on doing asap (a batch of T72's followed soon afterwards paving the way), but they were still sending mixed signals about transfer of fighter jets. Warsaw wanted US on board, as it need it to be an allied effort in order to shield Poland from possible Russian retaliation.

In the end, Warsaw got tired US indecision and reluctance, and acted independently. Dismantled around 10 🇵🇱MIG-29 fighter jets and left them in parts, in a forest belt near the border. Kyiv was notified about "ownerless" parts, which were then picked up and quickly assembled on the Ukrainian side of the border. That happened months(!) before the official transfer of jets in a larger international coalition.

**

There is more. A trip of Roman Abramovich through Poland and then to Turkey, that was supposed to be an attempt of reaching out to Russians through unofficial channels, or how Poland used specially created private companies to bypass bureaucracy when transferring military goods. It also has a significant chapter about why Polish-Ukrainian relations on the governmental level blossomed for a year, but then started to wither due to European power-politics, personal ego-trips and internal affairs in both countries. Particulary, chancellor Scholz and president Zelensky receive a bit of a whipping for their behavior.

Edit: Ah yes, I forgot the topic of rocket that fell on polish village of Przewodow, killing 2. All the gathered material (the rocket parts itself) indicate that it was indeed of Ukrainian origin. The stubborness with which Kiyv insisted it was 🇷🇺, despite no evidence was provided became one of the reasons why the relations cooled down.

quote:

Since you keep asking me in the comments about MiG-29's jets, I will add a couple of quotes to give you a better understanding about this particular event.

In the beginning of March, Ukraine was in dire need of additional fighter jets. Poland was willing to provide them, but there was a catch.

At that time Russia officially warned against using western airbases by Ukrainian aviation, threatening that it "may be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict."

Therefore, if planes were to be flown from Poland directly to Ukraine, in best case scenario they could be targeted by the enemy, in worst case - retaliation could struck Polish AB's.

Fully aware of that risk, Warsaw tried to convince US to put its weight behind the idea and therefore insure it against what ever Russia comes up with. But Washington was reluctant, sending mixed messages depending who have been asked. US didn't want to back Poland in this act, neither did it send additional air cover of Polish AB's. There was no clear answer and the time was running.

More over, Washington told Zelensky that's it's Poland that is holding up the transfer of planes, which made 🇺🇦president call president Duda asking - WTF? Unwilling to take the blame, Poland decided to force US hand, openly proposing that jets will fly over to 🇩🇪Ramstein AB, where they will be abandoned. 🇵🇱Pilots will go back home by bus or train and Warsaw won't care who picks them up and where they are going to fly. If Polish AB's could risk taking the Russian heat, why not German/American Ramstein?

That got Washington angry. Book quotes one of the ministers saying that Americans called asking "what kind of game are you playing with us?" to what they got bounced back with "how about you?". Blinked said to the press that "there are difficulties" with this idea adding that each country can provide whatever help it wants. But that was Blinken, while NSA was staunchly against. Hardly a unified and strong message for Russia.

Therefore, Warsaw decided to look for a way to directly transfer the planes without giving Kremlin any reasonable anchor for reaction.

One of the Polish ministers (Jakub Kumoch) from presidential office called his Ukrainian counterparts, and because he was respected and also on a very friendly level, asked them jokingly if they knew that in Polish language the name 'Ukraina' derives from 'ukraść', a Polish word for stealing? And if they still remember how to run a scheme. Nobody got offended (at least author doesn't mention that), and the message was clear. Later on🇺🇦was notified of certain parts being left on a specific location near the border. Completely unattended.

Next day parts were gone. Americans supposedly asked if Ukrainians managed to assemble them back into one piece, and if so, then where? The reply was "Yes, in the forest". In fact, Ukrainians were doing exactly that in the beginning of war, operating from field airstrips in forested areas. Changing location after each 24 hours. With their skills, assembling a plane they were perfectly familiar with did not present any challenge.

While exact date was not provided, it seems that this whole operation was carried out around March/April 2022.

---
My private side note (book doesn't mention any of that):

It's a common knowledge among 🇵🇱domestic military experts, that Poland provided Ukraine with immensely more than what was officially reported thus seriously degrading it's own military capabilities.

Details? We don't know all the numbers, but the talk is about as much as (!) ~350 T72/PT91 tanks, ~300 BMP-1, 72 Krab SPH, ~126 2S1 SPH, ~60 Grad MLRS, two dozens of S125 and S200 AD systems, and a lot of other stuff. Much of it came straight from Polish field units. This is probably one of the main reasons to why it's being kept as a secret, and also an explanation to why Poland went on a buying spree kicking the spending to 4% of its GDP.

Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 18:11 on Nov 15, 2023

# ? Nov 15, 2023 18:03

Scratch Monkey: Oct 25, 2010; 👰Proč bychom se netě�ili🥰kdy� n�m P�n Bůh🙌🏻zdrav� d�💪?

quote:

In the end, Warsaw got tired US indecision and reluctance, and acted independently. Dismantled around 10 🇵🇱MIG-29 fighter jets and left them in parts, in a forest belt near the border. Kyiv was notified about "ownerless" parts, which were then picked up and quickly assembled on the Ukrainian side of the border. That happened months(!) before the official transfer of jets in a larger international coalition.

Those are some straight up WW2 style shenanigans

# ? Nov 15, 2023 18:36

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Mr. Apollo posted:

Interesting summary of a Polish language book about the war. It�s filled with lots of behind the scenes anecdotes.

...the good stuff...

Many thanks for this info! :tipshat:

# ? Nov 15, 2023 18:53

Xiahou Dun: Jul 16, 2009; We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.

Scratch Monkey posted:

Those are some straight up WW2 style shenanigans

I�m kind of curious about the logistics of disassembling a bunch of MIGs and leaving them in the woods like an old car.

How many pieces are we talking about here? What�s that like to transport? What�s the tarp budget on this op?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:09

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; Can't post for 15 hours!

Xiahou Dun posted:

I�m kind of curious about the logistics of disassembling a bunch of MIGs and leaving them in the woods like an old car.

How many pieces are we talking about here? What�s that like to transport? What�s the tarp budget on this op?

MiGs are generally made to take whole parts and have them shipped off for maintenance. Since they didn't expect themselves or their customers to have as many qualified personnel to repair them, it makes sense to make it easier to swap out, say, the entire engine from the base to a centralized service facility.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:19

Xiahou Dun: Jul 16, 2009; We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.

Panzeh posted:

MiGs are generally made to take whole parts and have them shipped off for maintenance. Since they didn't expect themselves or their customers to have as many qualified personnel to repair them, it makes sense to make it easier to swap out, say, the entire engine from the base to a centralized service facility.

Yeah, but that applies equally to a part from an 1800�s textile mill or a car. That�s been a basic component of industrialization going on 200 years now. You just described the concept of interchangeable parts like it was a unique invention.

I�m willing to bet there�s slightly more to this process.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:26

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Does anyone know any good tutorial videos for My Summer Fulcrum? I can't figure out how the landing gear should be assembled.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:34

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

That was a great post, and congrats to the Poles for calling out the US dithering on the matter. I wonder if another solution wouldn't have been to park a US military unit on top of a Polish airbase, and then have Poland transfer from their own airbases. Russia might be willing to shoot a Polish airbase and hope nobody calls on Article 5, but if a bunch of US servicemembers died....Ah, well I guess this is why I'm not a diplomat. Say what you will about the "boil the frog" strategy: we've avoided WW3 so far.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:43

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; Can't post for 15 hours!

Xiahou Dun posted:

Yeah, but that applies equally to a part from an 1800�s textile mill or a car. That�s been a basic component of industrialization going on 200 years now. You just described the concept of interchangeable parts like it was a unique invention.

I�m willing to bet there�s slightly more to this process.

I can't speak to the MiG-29 in particular, but the Mig-21 is made specifically to have its engine fairly easily removed for this purpose. There's really no need to be hostile about this.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:53

Xiahou Dun: Jul 16, 2009; We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.

Panzeh posted:

I can't speak to the MiG-29 in particular, but the Mig-21 is made specifically to have its engine fairly easily removed for this purpose. There's really no need to be hostile about this.

Sorry, I�m 100% not trying to be hostile. If I had a snarky tone it�s because of my poor writing.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 19:55

buglord: Jul 31, 2010; Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!; Buglord

Tell me if this q is Clancy/too speculative: if US support dries up after a nasty 2024 election, how would that affect (effect?) UA war capabilities? Upthread someone mentioned Germany doubling aid amounts. Are other European counties talking about picking up the slack if the US dips out? Or is this line of questions built on too many load bearing assumptions?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:28

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

buglord posted:

Tell me if this q is Clancy/too speculative: if US support dries up after a nasty 2024 election, how would that affect (effect?) UA war capabilities? Upthread someone mentioned Germany doubling aid amounts. Are other European counties talking about picking up the slack if the US dips out? Or is this line of questions built on too many load bearing assumptions?

I honestly don't know if we can predict anything, but I'm sure there'd be a massive ammunition crunch. I'm Europe would be very distraught but I'm not sure if they could do much of anything about it given the practical manufacturing shortfall we're seeing right now on the European front.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:33

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

Xiahou Dun posted:

I�m kind of curious about the logistics of disassembling a bunch of MIGs and leaving them in the woods like an old car.

How many pieces are we talking about here? What�s that like to transport? What�s the tarp budget on this op?

I'm guessing a bunch of trailers with something like this:

Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Nov 15, 2023

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:45

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

Eric Cantonese posted:

I honestly don't know if we can predict anything, but I'm sure there'd be a massive ammunition crunch. I'm Europe would be very distraught but I'm not sure if they could do much of anything about it given the practical manufacturing shortfall we're seeing right now on the European front.

Is there anyone other NATO countries that also supply large numbers of cluster munitions for artillery?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:49

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

MikeC posted:

Is there anyone other NATO countries that also supply large numbers of cluster munitions for artillery?

Is this a joke or a genuine question? I personally don't know.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:52

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

To my best knowledge the USA is the only NATO country that didn't sign the CCM treaty.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 20:59

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

spankmeister posted:

To my best knowledge the USA is the only NATO country that didn't sign the CCM treaty.

You can easily check it out. Norway is the only neighbour of Russia that is in the treaty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions

# ? Nov 15, 2023 21:03

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

MikeC posted:

Is there anyone other NATO countries that also supply large numbers of cluster munitions for artillery?

Within NATO, I seem to remember that T�rkiye also has a large stockpile, but I could be misremembering. Outside of NATO, I'd be surprised if South Korea doesn't have them in large numbers as well.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 21:06

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Who outside of NATO/EU is providing meaningful military support to Ukraine right now? Does Ukraine need to start passing the hat in South America and SEA?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 21:08

lilljonas: May 6, 2007; We got crabs? We got crabs!

Subjunctive posted:

Who outside of NATO/EU is providing meaningful military support to Ukraine right now? Does Ukraine need to start passing the hat in South America and SEA?

Not many countries but there are a few surprising ones like Pakistan:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

lilljonas fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Nov 15, 2023

# ? Nov 15, 2023 22:02

Jyppe: Jun 13, 2007; For the Fireman!

Mr. Apollo posted:

It's a common knowledge among 🇵🇱domestic military experts, that Poland provided Ukraine with immensely more than what was officially reported thus seriously degrading it's own military capabilities.

I believe other Eastern European countries did similar stuff. At least the exact technical details and amounts of the aid were never publicly disclosed.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 22:38

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Xiahou Dun posted:

Yeah, but that applies equally to a part from an 1800�s textile mill or a car. That�s been a basic component of industrialization going on 200 years now. You just described the concept of interchangeable parts like it was a unique invention.

I�m willing to bet there�s slightly more to this process.

That is not what is being talked about. Interchangable parts are parts that are build to such a specification that you can take a part out and replace it of one of the same type. It's how parts are made.

What is being talked about is the fact that the MIG in question is easily taken apart and put back together, even in the field, or in a place that doesn't have Specifically Trained MiG Engineers. This is NOT a standard feature in vehicles. The ability to field repair or rebuild certain vehicles from spare parts easily differs heavily from vehicle to vehicle.

Kchama fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Nov 15, 2023

# ? Nov 15, 2023 22:56

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Nenonen posted:

You can easily check it out. Norway is the only neighbour of Russia that is in the treaty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions

You forgot Lithuania.

# ? Nov 15, 2023 22:57

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

What is a lithuania?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 23:01

Nervous: Jan 25, 2005; Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Nenonen posted:

What is a lithuania?

It's a rare earth metal used in battery tech, right?

# ? Nov 15, 2023 23:41

FuturePastNow: May 19, 2014

I imagine the disassembled jets were loaded into containers or truck trailers and not a pile of parts in the forest. Most fighter aircraft break down pretty nicely into pieces for road transport.

# ? Nov 16, 2023 00:07

I dont know: Aug 9, 2003; That Guy here...

lilljonas posted:

Not many countries but there are a few surprising ones like Pakistan:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Interesting. Why is Pakistan providing aid? My assumption is it's part of a favor/deal with the US. Is there something else?

# ? Nov 16, 2023 02:20

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

I'm assuming Pakistanis have some thoughts about attempts to be forcibly assimilated back into the mothership.

# ? Nov 16, 2023 02:34

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 14:31

DarklyDreaming: Apr 4, 2009; Fun scary

Quixzlizx posted:

I'm assuming Pakistanis have some thoughts about attempts to be forcibly assimilated back into the mothership.

Yeah that part of the world is not without animosity to Russian imperialism

# ? Nov 16, 2023 02:36

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