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McGavin posted:I see they finally got around to covering the statue in Kontakt-5. (Active) protect mother Ukraine
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Nov 17, 2023 21:40
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I feel like Nizh ERA would be especially appropriate for that statue, given what the name means.
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Nov 17, 2023 22:55
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It sucks to read this stuff, but it's important to stay in touch with realism. https://twitter.com/andrewsweiss/status/1725482522782388227
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Nov 18, 2023 04:36
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glynnenstein posted:It sucks to read this stuff, but it's important to stay in touch with realism. Unfortunately I think Putin can win this* unless a sea change happens. While all those russian vehicles and ships and officers exploding is good, it seems they've adapted to just using unending meat waves carrying only small arms, reproducible artillery shells, and disposable drones en masse unending. I worry that he's successfully turned this war into who can sustain human misery for the longest, and in that respect, russia has a huge edge over western support. *defined here as force stalemate until western suppliers give up and then slowly push back Ukr forces with endless suicide waves that they seem to be able to sustain indefinitely. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Nov 18, 2023 |
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Nov 18, 2023 06:51
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Sure, with a properly defeatist attitude there's no end to the wars you can lose or allies you can abandon. What the gently caress do these people think a russian "win" looks like? Genocide of Ukraine, for one, that's blindingly obvious, and using russia's current tactics an unimaginable bloodshed per square kilometer. What is a "win" in this three-day special operation? It used to be conquering the country of Ukraine, now it's down to what? Hold some extra square kilometers of the east? Not lose Crimea? Well that certainly seems worth hundreds and thousands of lives and the crippling of the russian economy. Even in a "win", these motherfucking fascists should lose. The math for european nations, NATO and the US is super simple. While russia is busy in Ukraine, they are not a threat or outright losing everywhere else. While Russia is spending itself on Ukraine, every eurodollar spent giving Ukraine support is directly going to its intended purpose, destroying russian military capability. The west can sustain this indefinitely. Hell, military spending actually increases gross national product, loving creates jobs and whatever. It's great value for our defence spending. And I don't think all this posturing about how great all this is going is the actual truth, regardless of all of the above. I think, that when you are weak, appear strong. I think russia's back is breaking. I think they are spending themselves into irrelevance. I want russia so crippled by the end of the war that they aren't a credible threat in Europe ever again. So I think the west has every incentive to keep supporting Ukraine with everything we have, and geopolitics have a strong tendency to follow strong incentives. Anything else I would consider a betrayal and shortsighted stupidity.
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Nov 18, 2023 10:04
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Pretty big update, per ISW: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-17-2023 quote:Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian forces have established bridgeheads on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are conducting ground operations aimed at pushing Russian forces out of artillery range of the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian Marine Corps Command and the Ukrainian General Staff stated on November 17 that Ukrainian marines have secured several “bridgeheads” on the east bank following successful actions and are conducting actions to expand these positions.[1] US military doctrine defines a bridgehead as “an area on the enemy’s side of the water obstacle that is large enough to accommodate the majority of the crossing force, has adequate terrain to permit defense of the crossing sites, provides security to crossing forces from enemy direct fire, and provides a base for continuing the attack.”[2] The doctrinal definition of a bridgehead does not stipulate a certain size for the crossing force, the extent of the secured positions, or the ability to transfer and operate heavy military equipment from those positions. The necessary size of a bridgehead depends on the operations it is meant to support, and the official Ukrainian acknowledgment of these positions as bridgeheads indicates that the Ukrainian command assesses that these positions are sufficient for continuing ground operations on the east bank.
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Nov 18, 2023 10:07
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Nice piece of fish posted:Even in a "win", these motherfucking fascists should lose. I would disagree with the first. In a "win" Putin gets to solidify his domestic politics by going "hey, we took a chunk of Ukraine" and repeat the same adventure again in a year or two when they've had a chance to learn, build up missile stocks and be better prepared, but this time with the West more exhausted and Ukraine notably smaller and in a worse position to counterattack. Oh and, of course, all the ongoing genocide. Not to mention that you just know a bunch of assholes(Germany, Hungary, Slovakia...) would be soiling themselves from excitement in their hurry to go "WELL RUSSIA'S NOT ATTACKING ANY MORE, CAN WE TAKE RUSSIAN MONEY AGAIN? PLEASE??? PLEASE???" and dismantling sanctions as rapidly as possible. In the case of the second, yes, the West can, but will they, is the question. We've already seen Republicans doing their damndest to block support to Ukraine, we've got Hungary attempting to block additional sanctions and refusing to provide support, we've got Slovakia electing a pro-Russian government that refuses to support Ukraine. Slowness in supplying Ukraine with a lot of important poo poo, or upgrading their capabilities(often accompanied by the weeping battlecry of "b-b-b-but escalation!!!!!"), has a lot of blame for the current state of the front lines. Obviously some of the delays were logistical, training required on the Ukrainian side, etc. but there has also been a lot of political delay. Over a long enough period of time, with hard enough sanctions and sufficient enforcement of them, probably Russia is also destroying itself. But you have to keep in mind that for all the sanctions the West are enforcing, pretty much everyone east of Kyiv and south of Rome is happily buying from Russia and supporting their economy. The pricing might be worse, but between China and India alone, you've got some huge loving markets willing to slurp up fossil fuels and other natural resources. It's not going to happen on a meaningful timeline without a more globally united front. Don't get me wrong, I support the continuation of the sanctions and more support for Ukraine, but I do think that a lapse in this support is a real and tangible threat.
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Nov 18, 2023 10:32
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PurpleXVI posted:I would disagree with the first. I said "should" and not "would". To explain; it is my opinion that even if an eventual victory for russia is inevitable (what, occupy Ukraine? what does that look like), that victory should be pyrric to the point of being usustainable and crippling for russia. I would like them to bankrupt themselves on this venture. The alternative is that western europe is going to have to up its military spending considerably to take into account russia's willingness to spend as many lives as it takes to achieve an objective. Common sense politics has regarded this as politically suicidal, but apparently the russian people will pay any price (?) for any square of dirt Putin wants? I'd like to find out if that last part is really true, but if it appears so then I guess western europe needs overwhelming force to defend itself as a deterrence. Or, you know, western europe can just get its head out of its rear end and give Ukraine what it needs. I think a lapse in support is unforgivable and I wouldn't (and haven't) voted for any politician willing to decrease support regardless of my ordinary political leanings. I mean, russia destroyed the european peace. They are the only realistic threat to western europe. People should be furious at russia at this point.
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Nov 18, 2023 11:57
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Nice piece of fish posted:so then I guess western europe needs overwhelming force to defend itself as a deterrence. We already have it. They're called nuclear weapons.
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Nov 18, 2023 12:29
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I think Biden has done an admirable job here of bringing the west along this far in supporting Ukraine while ‘boiling the frog’ and keeping the fighting limited and other Russian aligned countries mostly out of it. Russia is getting some munitions and likely some banned electronics from its partners but that’s much less than what could be happening. Ukraine isn’t getting what it needs to win quickly but there also aren’t Chinese bombers flying sorties from Russian bases or 3 corps of North Koreans holding part of the front. Meanwhile we’ve been watching Ukraines capabilities advance in meaningful stages to more and longer ranged precision weapons, better equipment and by most accounts a significant counter battery capability in a war where artillery is the queen of battle all of which will, given time, serious reduce Putins ability to wage this war. Is it frustrating? Sure. But, I think people are severely underestimating how far south this situation could have gone or could still go. Russia is fighting a defensive war across 600 miles of front and hasn’t had successful offensive operations since the spring and shows no signs of being able to mount any anytime soon.
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Nov 18, 2023 13:36
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Nice piece of fish posted:Sure, with a properly defeatist attitude there's no end to the wars you can lose or allies you can abandon. I think Putin's goal here is proving that the west and america will abandon anyone relying on its help as soon as its convenient, allowing Putin and whatever assholes after him to start bullying neighbors again. A huge part of the russian war effort in syria and elsewhere is "there is no hope, there is no rescue, there is only suffering and then your death", and with a mutilated Ukraine, despite it still existing, he can point to the price and futility of resistance. Even if russia destroys its military on this they've proven to be exceptionally good at just buying off assorted plutocrats and neo-liberal politicians. Its difficult to mount a real resistance from a threat that one's leaders really, really want to take the money from. That's what a Putin victory would mean here, Kiev is off the table as is most of Ukraine, but showing the U.S. is feckless and assorted european leaders to be corrupt and willing to abandon anything in exchange for petrodollars allows russian intelligence to continue to shape the future of the world. Lovely Joe Stalin posted:We already have it. They're called nuclear weapons. Its hard to use those to prevent weaponized corruption efforts coring out one's sovereignty and putting a chud government sympathetic to russia in power. Nukes stop tanks from crossing the border but not polonium ninjas or anonymous bank transfers to offshore accounts. Its not a question of "can russia be stopped" its "do those who tend to rise to power have any reason to place their nation's betterment over their own personal comfort and advancements?" and there's a lot of cyprian laundered cash on hand to make that a moral peril. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Nov 18, 2023 |
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Nov 18, 2023 13:54
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Murgos posted:Russia is getting some munitions and likely some banned electronics from its partners but that’s much less than what could be happening. Speaking of which, now that Russia has to obtain a lot of western technology through shady intermediaries, I wonder how many Trojan horses are going in? 
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Nov 18, 2023 15:46
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:We already have it. They're called nuclear weapons. Whenever someone brings up someone else using nuclear weapons in defence of someone else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o861Ka9TtT4
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Nov 18, 2023 18:02
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Putin only has to hang on until Trump gets reelected.
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Nov 18, 2023 19:57
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Mzuri posted:Putin only has to hang on until Trump gets reelected. Its this. Or any republican that beats biden
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Nov 18, 2023 20:20
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What happens when Biden starts campaigning seriously and beats trump by 4%?
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Nov 18, 2023 20:40
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The X-man cometh posted:What happens when Biden starts campaigning seriously and beats trump by 4%? Then there's a better chance Ukraine continues to get funding from the US.
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Nov 18, 2023 20:40
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/Czy5gzpr1Am/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== Gonna have a fish fry!
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Nov 18, 2023 20:50
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Defenestrategy posted:Whenever someone brings up someone else using nuclear weapons in defence of someone else. that series is so quotable
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Nov 18, 2023 21:00
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That Works posted:Its this. Or any republican that beats biden For the next year Ukraine has to base their planning on support from the US being cut off on the afternoon of January 20, 2025.
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Nov 18, 2023 21:16
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I wonder when we'll start seeing the power grid attacks again.
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Nov 18, 2023 22:30
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I wonder when we'll start seeing the power grid attacks again. probably when it gets colder
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Nov 18, 2023 22:41
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also my view on the recent 'wow do we need to re-evaluate how Ukraine is doing??' editorials is that those are mostly the result of relatively low-info people who were reading piles of the pie-in-the-sky english-language pro-Ukraine bullshit that has been absolutely everywhere since the first week of the war. Since literally the beginning of the war there's been a stark divide between what, say, anglophone twitter is saying about how the war is going and what Ukrainians (and people who have actually traveled to Ukraine to talk to Ukrainians involved in the war) have been saying. I know I've ranted about this in here before but while twitter was jerking off about how Russians are incompetent unadapting bumbling idiots who Ukraine will effortlessly steamroll Ukrainians were describing Russian adaptation cycles in terms of weeks and how Russians were difficult opponents on multiple significant levels. idk to what extent that was just people seeking out and wanting to believe stuff that makes them feel good vs at least partly a rather poorly conceived messaging effort, but it's really never had any particular connection to reality and my real scorcher of a take is that imo all that 'Ukraine has this effortlessly' poo poo was incredibly counterproductive wrt efforts to actually get Ukraine what it needs on relevant timeframes and did little other than stoke a bunch of delusional narratives as an aside it's been interesting to see so much of that messaging apparatus reorient almost overnight to posting instead about how Israel needs to destroy Palestine, which is another conflict that will no doubt be improved by the firehose of internet bullshit ChubbyChecker posted:probably when it gets colder e: double checked, fully was underway by Oct 10th last year, so right after the withdrawal/fall of kherson. there's been long running speculation that recent Russian missile production is being held back for wintertime infrastructure attacks (or maybe a spring offensive?) but I am skeptical that that's the full story Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Nov 18, 2023 |
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Nov 18, 2023 22:47
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I know I've ranted about this in here before but while twitter was jerking off about how Russians are incompetent unadapting bumbling idiots who Ukraine will effortlessly steamroll Ukrainians were describing Russian adaptation cycles in terms of weeks and how Russians were difficult opponents on multiple significant levels. I think the truth here is somewhat in the middle, because while the Russians have indeed engaged in some adaptation, they have also shown every ability to repeat the same mistakes they made over a year ago and throw piles and piles of men and materiel into a meatgrinder for little to no gain. Whether this is because their command are in fact dipshit morons or because political pressures(such as the pressure to not suddenly fall out of a window) forces this sort of behavior, we probably won't know for a few decades yet until enough material from the Russian side is leaked, but it does also mean they're not the hyperadaptive ultrafoe.
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Nov 18, 2023 22:57
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it's really not in the middle and at no point am I saying that they're a 'hyperadaptive ultrafoe' (your words, definitely not mine), I'm saying that Ukrainians regularly talk about Russian tactical innovation in timelines of weeks which has been an extremely consistent theme from actual Ukrainian servicemembers all the way back to the early weeks of the war. Gerasimov getting personally involved and pissing away huge amounts of materiel in a couple spectacularly stupid and failed offensive attempts doesn't have a lot of bearing on how the entire rest of the war is being fought on a day-to-day basis. unfortunately.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Nov 18, 2023 |
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Nov 18, 2023 23:06
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
There's been a lot of speculation that Russia might launch them in larger volleys to saturate air defences. Successful drone strikes on the launch aircraft in August have also prompted relocations of the cruise missile bombers to airbases further away from Ukraine. It's going to take a lot more effort if they have to first fly into range instead of just taking off, launching and landing.
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Nov 18, 2023 23:36
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
they might not have enough to start up bombing this soon, but my bet is that russia will start heavy city bombings when it's mid winter
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Nov 18, 2023 23:55
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If Russia is doing so well why are they losing ground against a non-peer adversary? Not saying it's not an uphill struggle but everybody is wowed by Ukraine even existing at this point, nevermind pushing back.
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Nov 19, 2023 01:33
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Soul Dentist posted:If Russia is doing so well why are they losing ground against a non-peer adversary? Not saying it's not an uphill struggle but everybody is wowed by Ukraine even existing at this point, nevermind pushing back. Who is saying Russia is doing well? The argument is that they're not cartoonishly incompetent as is sometimes depicted.
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Nov 19, 2023 02:44
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"Quantity has a Quality all of its own"
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Nov 19, 2023 02:51
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M_Gargantua posted:"Quantity has a Quality all of its own" The classic Red Army strategy.
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Nov 19, 2023 03:19
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EasilyConfused posted:Who is saying Russia is doing well? The argument is that they're not cartoonishly incompetent as is sometimes depicted. The very fact they can’t gain ground is proof they are cartoonishly incompetent. It’s like a bear being bloodied by a French bulldog. If they were competent, they would be winning.
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Nov 19, 2023 03:21
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Quackles posted:The classic Red Army strategy. …say the Nazi survivors to keep from looking like idiots
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Nov 19, 2023 03:26
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M_Gargantua posted:"Quantity has a Quality all of its own" *offer not valid without American logistics
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Nov 19, 2023 03:38
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Borscht posted:The very fact they can’t gain ground is proof they are cartoonishly incompetent. That's not necessarily true, the defenders might also be very driven. The exaggerations about Russian incompetence go too far a lot of the time.
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Nov 19, 2023 08:41
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Yeah, it leads to the dangers of just assuming the pro Ukr side is so obviously superior it cannot fail. Discounting even a struggling enemy is a good way to make unforced errors while fighting that enemy.
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Nov 19, 2023 08:59
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To be fair, the initial invasion towards Kyiv was hilariously incompetent in ways that are quite well documented. It's not representative of the rest of the war, but it does colour perceptions.
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Nov 19, 2023 17:05
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It seems unlikely, but I do hope one day we get the book on what on earth is up with Gerasimov.
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Nov 19, 2023 17:16
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Lead out in cuffs posted:To be fair, the initial invasion towards Kyiv was hilariously incompetent in ways that are quite well documented. At this point I think the greater risk is allowing first impressions to be only perceptions. Despite having all their high end toys and logistical lines blown up repeatedly they've managed to tar pit the ukranian counterassault with endless meat waves+drones. Putin has survived the internal chaos the bungled start of the war caused and is now putting russia on a total war footing after cleaning house of anything and anyone that could get in his way. Its fighting a war with sticks and stones on the counter-offensive, and while it seems absurd its straining ukranian resources just to keep up with it. Its a hell of a thing to wipe out 10s of thousands of the enemy and they show no sign of slowing down assaults. The leadership of the country nextdoor with 10 to 100 times your everything just decided to spill its guts trying to kill you. The prospect is terrifying but the alternative to resisting russia to the very end is one's civilian population being systematically exterminated one way or another. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Nov 19, 2023 |
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Nov 19, 2023 20:28
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Ronwayne posted:Unfortunately I think Putin can win this* unless a sea change happens. While all those russian vehicles and ships and officers exploding is good, it seems they've adapted to just using unending meat waves carrying only small arms, reproducible artillery shells, and disposable drones en masse unending. I worry that he's successfully turned this war into who can sustain human misery for the longest, and in that respect, russia has a huge edge over western support. I don't think he can 'win' this (winning being taking all of Ukraine) but I do think he can stalemate it till he dies. If he could win this, he already would have. The sheer amount of wasted forces and equipment Russia has thrown into this bottomless pit does not reflect an ability to win. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Nov 19, 2023 |
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Nov 19, 2023 22:06
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